Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/15/15

Dave Cameron: We’re going to run a bit early today, since our nanny is leaving early today. We’ll aim to go from 11:45 to 12:45, so the queue is now open.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this party started. Trade value questions will probably be given something of a priority, since that’s the world I’m living in this week, but if you want to talk trade deadline or All-Star Game or anything else, feel free.

Comment From Brendon
I’m expecting Donaldson to be the only Blue Jay in the top 20. So, given that, who are the next best “trade value” Jays? Did Stroman and Devon Travis get any consideration for the list?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Donaldson will be on tomorrow’s list, and no other Blue Jays were strongly considered. Stroman would probably be their next best guy, but he’d fit in more in the 75-100 range, most likely; he’s kind of like Julio Urias or Lucas Giolito in the sense of having very interesting long-term value but no present value, only he’s also going to have less control years once you get that value.

Comment From Jim
Who on the phillies traded

Dave Cameron: Hamels, Papelbon, Utley. Maybe Ruiz.

Comment From Bret
Hey Dave – you and other writers on the site have written before about how knuckleballers like RA Dickey and really tall guys like Chris Young aren’t fairly judged by FIP because their batted ball profile is so different. While there aren’t a ton of other examples, I was wondering if it might be fair to look at soft-throwers like Mark Buehrle in the same manner. He seems to really consistently outperform some expectations, especially what xFIP would show. Or perhaps Buerhle is just a one-of-kind oddity.

Dave Cameron: Yes, soft-tossing lefties also tend to outperform their peripherals as well, though this seems to be because the only way to get to the big leagues as a soft-tossing lefty is to be excellent everything else, so these guys are generally great at holding runners on, fielding their position, etc.. If you’re a no-stuff guy and you don’t make up for it elsewhere, you won’t ever get a chance to underperform your FIP.

Comment From Tom Cranker
Could you add a running list of the players listed in the trade value series to date to your posts? It’s a great series, but every time I read a new post I have to click back through the old ones to remind myself who has already been placed. Would be great to have it right there.

Dave Cameron: I did that last year, and it was pretty clunky to have a huge table at the bottom of each piece. On Friday, we’ll do a wrap-up post that has a full graphic with all 50 guys.

Comment From John Kinsella
Hi Dave! Nelson Cruz have a more consistent 2nd half? Was on fire for 3 weeks then disappeared. Rather him or Adam Jones 2nd half?

Dave Cameron: He’s turned back into Nelson Cruz. He’s okay, nothing special. Jones is clearly the better player, but I’m guessing you’re asking from a fantasy perspective, where defense doesn’t matter? Cruz is probably a slightly better hitter than Jones now.

Comment From Bill Brasky
What is a realistic package the Brewers could receive in return for Carlos Gomez if they traded him before July 31st?

Dave Cameron: He’s a pretty valuable chip, especially given that he’s not a walk-year guy. I’d say he’d probably command something similar to what Cueto will cost, maybe even a tad bit more. So two top 100 prospects and some filler, maybe?

Comment From Mike
Dave, it’s not a new idea, but wouldn’t free pinch runners be a nice addition to the game?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Eliminating the cost of rostering big lumbering sluggers would incentivize teams to play those guys more often, and those guys are boring.

Dave Cameron: Reducing the cost is probably a more fair way of saying it.

Comment From Michael
Any chance we’ll ever get times through the order splits on FG? It’s the number one missing feature in my book.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, David is working on dramatically upgrading our splits section.

Comment From Christian
Any chance the Angels pick up another bat by the deadline? Do the Angels have anyone that anybody wants?

Dave Cameron: Even super weak farm systems have some upside guys that are far away, and you can usually flip one of those for a mid-level rental. So yeah, I could see them being in the market for some of these mid-tier upgrades.

Comment From Rhodes
With word that Shields is on the block, you hear a lot of analysts argue that the Padres would alienate future free agents if they deal a guy they just signed long term. Is that a legitimate concern or just rambling conjecture? Would a guy really spurn something like 5y/$75m from SD to take another team’s 5y/$70m?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, guys do take less to avoid certain organizations who have bad reps. The Astros couldn’t get the mid or high level free agents to take their money last winter, for instance, even when they outbid other non-contenders. But I don’t think trading Shields would bring the Padres rep down to the level of the Astros. It would do some damage, but probably not enough to not trade him if presented with a good offer.

Comment From Guest
Did you consider placing All-Stars JD Martinez or Jose Iglesias on the trade value list?

Dave Cameron: Martinez only has two years left of team control after this season, so he was on the list of good players who just missed. Iglesias wasn’t that seriously considered; he was only an “All-Star” because AL shortstops suck right now.

Comment From Cave Dameron
Any speculation on who the catcher the Mariners are close to trading for might be?

Dave Cameron: More likely just a veteran backup type, but if they’re replacing Zunino for the rest of the year, maybe Derek Norris?

Comment From Yoav
Hi Dave – will the Mets trade some of their guys to get a ‘working’ bat? Who’s the best bat candidate for them?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’ll do something, but probably not as big a trade as people want. The reality is that paying a big price for Justin Upton or something to try and improve your odds of winning a one game playoff just isn’t a good idea.

Dave Cameron: Jay Bruce, or someone more like that, makes more sense.

Comment From Z
Given Donaldson’s high placement on the trade value list, the return the A’s got for him was pretty underwhelming, no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think that trade was a bet on Donaldson not aging that well. Instead, he’s gotten better. I think the A’s screwed up, but also, no one was projecting Donaldson as a +9 WAR player, which is what he’s on pace for.

Comment From Tom
In the Trade Value series did you take into account any “age-cheating” or did you just ignore potential inaccuracies since it’s impossible to know for sure?

Dave Cameron: The fake identity stuff has been heavily reduced over the last 10 years. There probably aren’t that many prominent big leaguers left using false ages.

Comment From Mark
Stroman doesn’t have any present value but he’s performed better than several pitchers currently on the list (having a top 11 FIP- will do that, though). If the Jays wanted Lucroy or Quintana or Altuve for whatever reason, those teams would be silly to turn him down. I think he has a lot more trade value than certain guys on this list. And since his injury wasn’t arm related, there’s little reason to think there’d be a performance drop off. If it’s because of present value that’s fine, but he’s got far more future value and trade value than several guys on this list.

Dave Cameron: Looking at it from a “this team would trade this player for player” is missing the point; there are plenty of rebuilding teams who wouldn’t trade a guy like Byron Buxton or Corey Seager for a shorter-term guy like Josh Donaldson, but if both were available to all 30 teams, the bidding war for a guy with Donaldson’s present value would reach higher levels than the one for guys whose value all lies in the future. Stroman’s a nice piece to have, but when you offer no present value, your future value has to be exceptionally high. His isn’t as high as guys like Buxton or Seager who made the list entirely on future value.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Since I doubt Yasmani Grandal is in the top 20, could you tell me why he didn’t make the cut over a guy like Yan Gomes?

Dave Cameron: They’re roughly equal in expected future production, but Grandal is only under control for three more years at arb prices, while Gomes is locked up for six more years for basically nothing. This “Yan Gomes is bad” narrative that popped up in his response to his appearance on the list is a remarkable example of recency bias. 150 lousy at-bats after coming back from surgery does not make Yan Gomes suck. He’s still a very good player.

Comment From ar
it’s hard to imagine that amaro actually has the power to sign off on a hamels trade, right? (and i’m trying to remember, in previous years, when do these trades start to come together? like by this weekend?)

Dave Cameron: Ruben said yesterday that Gillick has the final call. Amaro is just the public face, but Gillick is running things.

Comment From Art Vandelay
If the Twins were willing to move someone like Oswaldo Arcia, would that be enough to bring back a Gallardo-level arm?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, but they shouldn’t do that. Gallardo isn’t going to move the needle for them much.

Comment From Nick
I know it’s not hugely important, but how would you want home field advantage in the World Series decided?

Dave Cameron: Interleague record.

Comment From Nik
Should the Phillies trade Ken Giles? He should have a lot of value and by the time Phillies are good again he’ll be well into his arbitration years.

Dave Cameron: Yep. They should be willing to trade just about everyone.

Comment From Romelo
What do you think the Nats would have to give up to acquire Aroldis Chapman?

Dave Cameron: Spitballing; maybe Wilmer Difo and one of their young arms.

Comment From Tony Two Bags
Does the high velocity and pitching motion of Noah Syndergaard put him at more risk for TJ than any other pitcher?

Dave Cameron: I don

Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone knows how to predict future injuries particularly well.

Comment From Roy
If another expansion were to happen, which cities would you see as the best match for new teams?

Dave Cameron: Brooklyn and Portland. Force the hipsters to like baseball by shoving it down their throats.

Dave Cameron: Stick a team in Austin too, just to be sure.

Comment From Mike
What do you think is more risky. The Jays trading the Norris’ and Hoffmans’, or the Jays potentially counting on them down the stretch?

Dave Cameron: I bet they trade Hoffman, but bring Norris back up rather than move him.

Comment From Jas
Mookie: tomorrow or Friday

Dave Cameron: Tomorrow. I love Mookie probably more than anyone besides Alex Speier, but there are just too many great young players in the game right now for him to crack the top 10.

Comment From Logan Davis
Be honest. Was there at least a tiny part of you that wanted to put Brad Miller on the Trade Value list, just to watch the comments section go up in flames?

Dave Cameron: You might be surprised to hear that I don’t actually enjoy being told I deserve prison rape because someone thinks Todd Frazier is more valuable than Yan Gomes, so no, I don’t actually try to incite the lunatics on the internet.

Comment From Brian
RE Shields: What kind of a return could the Padres expect. More or less than a guy like Cueto? More control obviously, but expensive if the Padres don’t eat some cash.

Dave Cameron: Assuming they don’t pick up any of his remaining salary, definitely less. I doubt they’d pay someone to take him either.

Comment From Jeff
Dave, do you think a Royals-Reds blockbuster trade (Cueto, Bruce and all of his contract for Mondesi and more) is plausible? Kansas City is in a position to absolutely go for it, and need starting pitcher and corner outfield help even with Gordon, let alone with him out until September?

Dave Cameron: Cueto and Bruce make a lot of sense for KC, but “Mondesi and more” is not anywhere near what it would take.

Dave Cameron: Unless by more, you meant like their next three best prospects too.

Comment From Julio Pepper
This is something that’s always bothered me re:contract extensions, related to your most recent podcast. Players like Longoria/McCutchen/Sale are just buying insurance from their teams, and the team is getting a huge discount and reaping benefits. Why does this have to be done through the team? Couldn’t players just buy insurance during their minimum wage/arb years from some third party that’s much closer to their market value?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ve talked to some players and agents about this, but the secondary market for insurance is super annoying to deal with, apparently. They mostly just want to insure you against career ending injury, and if you want to collect the policy, you have to retire rather than rehab and try to come back. I think a better secondary insurance market could develop if teams were really sticking it to the players, but in the end, they’re still getting a lot of money, and most of them would rather just be rich and have a good relationship with their organization than be really rich and deal with questions about their contract, trade rumors, etc…

Comment From Guesto
Think the A’s offload Josh Reddick or hold on to him? He’d fetch a pretty substantial return, no?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if he got moved if the A’s struggle coming out of the break. This is definitely the right time to sell given the lack of talent available.

Comment From The Boss
Should the Mets trade a starter, and if so, which one? Harvey seems like the one who would get the best return, notwithstanding your rankings.

Dave Cameron: You’re a GM of another team. You can have your choice of Harvey’s three arb years (rough estimated cost: $25 million) or six years of Syndergaard (~$35 million). You have to think Harvey is way better than Syndergaard now to choose him, right? Maybe some do. I would take the kid.

Dave Cameron: That said, I don’t think the Mets have enough Major League talent to be trading away Major League talent right now.

Comment From EDP
Yikes did people hate the Yan Gomes ranking. Is this just a case of people over reacting to 150 PA this year while ignoring all previous data?

Dave Cameron: Sorry about that; wi-fi crapped out.

Dave Cameron: And yes, there’s obviously a lot of recency bias in the Gomes reaction, but there’s also some confirmation bias at play as well, I think. Gomes wasn’t a highly regarded prospect and came out of nowhere, so there was skepticism about his quality performances. For those who didn’t see him as a good player before he started playing like one, and have stubbornly held on to that belief, this is their “hah, I knew it, Gomes is terrible” evidence.

Comment From marc
Will the pirates do anything exciting at the deadline? or more sit back and add a small piece here and there?

Dave Cameron: Mike Napoli makes a lot of sense there. I bet they get him and maybe a mid-tier reliever.

Comment From mtsw
“Are you seriously suggesting that a team would trade [well known, highly paid All Star] for [great, less-known young player with team control]!? This is why you’re in your mom’s basement and not running a team, Cameron.” How many of those have you been getting?

Dave Cameron: A decent amount. There are certainly a group of people who think trade value = current performance, and every other factor is irrelevant. These are the also the people who freaked out last at the David Price trade last year. Baseball doesn’t operate like they think it does, but what can you do?

Comment From steve
I know I would put Donaldson in the top 20, but would MLB? The previous trade really has to give you pause. Would any team controlling a player ranked #21-#50 really trade them for Donaldson straight-up?

Dave Cameron: Well, for one thing, Donaldson is playing better now than he ever did in Oakland. So his value is probably up since he was traded last winter, even with less service time. But yeah, if that trade was a clear indicator of market value, then this whole exercise is incorrect. I tend to think that trade was more of an outlier though.

Comment From STiVo
Love the trade value series as always, Dave! I’m sure there is a ton of quibbling about particular placements. So let me get in my query: I’m surprised Altuve wasn’t closer to #1, given the Astro’s salary commitments, including the two option years. Is the issue with Altuve that he just isn’t as good as his traditional stats imply? (Or any other reason for why he wasn’t higher?)

Dave Cameron: He’s a good player, not a great one; the lack of power is a hinderance, and when you have +5 or +6 WAR guys on great contracts, a +3 to +4 WAR guy just isn’t going to command as much in return.

Comment From Matt
Does a Teheran for Schwarber trade work for both sides?

Dave Cameron: That would be silly for the Cubs.

Comment From TKDC
When looking to trade a valuable asset, how important is it to have a large number of interested parties? Is there much extra value after 5-6 clubs are very interested?

Dave Cameron: You probably only need 3-4 to get a real bidding war going on. After that, yeah, how many are in don’t matter much. But if you have a guy who appeals to everyone, you have a better chance of getting 3-4 GMs who really want that guy, versus a player who only appeals to ~10 teams; you might end up with 8 rational GMs out of that group.

Comment From Julio Pepper
Why interleague play more than team with better record? Strength of league makes record weaker?

Dave Cameron: You have to decide home field advantage way ahead of time, for scheduling reasons. You can’t wait until the ALCS ends.

Comment From Josh G
Lucroy made some comments recently and seems very unhappy with the Brewers organization. Might that be enough to push the needle to allow the Brewers to seriously consider a trade? Also, would it be prudent to wait until the offseason in any case, or could they get a better package if they moved now?

Dave Cameron: He’s only going to lose value. The sooner the better.

Comment From Good Ole Boy
What would a deadline package for CarGo look like? Could he demand a Top 100 player or would it just be filler players in order to take his contract?

Dave Cameron: Unless they’re eating money, nothing. He’s a salary dump.

Comment From Nick
Dave, hipsters love baseball already. You work with Carson Cistulli for crying out loud.

Dave Cameron: He actually claims to not be a hipster.

Comment From Norm
Why would any team take Papelbon and his contract over cheaper closing alternatives out there like K-Rod?

Dave Cameron: Because Brewers won’t give K-Rod away.

Comment From Nick
If you were Boston, would you consider trading Xander or Mookie for one of the young, cost-controlled stud pitchers on this list or is trading position player for pitcher just a bad idea?

Dave Cameron: I’d rather build around hitters.

Comment From ar
if someone offered to loan you 100k @ 4%, would you take it? 3%? 2%?

Dave Cameron: It’d probably have to be under 2%, maybe even pushing 1%. The upside of the marginal gain (especially post-tax) at higher rates wouldn’t be worth the risk to my financial security if the market crashed. I’ve worked pretty hard to make sure we’re not too vulnerable, so undoing that for a few extra thousand dollars per year doesn’t seem wise.

Comment From Good Ole Boy
Why would anyone give up something valuable for Shields when they could have just signed him last year and not given up anything?

Dave Cameron: Why would anyone stop at a restaurant when they’re hungry and pay high markups on cheap food when they could have just planned ahead and made lunch at home before they left for work? Because they didn’t, and going back in time is not an option, so you deal with the market that exists now, not the one that could have hypothetically existed had different choices been made.

Comment From Romelo
Could the Nats actually land Chapman without having to give up Joe Ross in the deal? I’d be perfectly fine with sending Cincy Difo and Lopez and/or Cole.

Dave Cameron: I bet the Reds would do it for Difo/Lopez.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know the Nats would do that.

Comment From The Moops
did you watch the ASG or sit around sipping wine coolers with sullivan and bemoan the inferior selection process?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t done much else since Saturday besides work on the Trade Value series. This thing is a beast, and takes a lot of work.

Comment From The Famous Singer, Rob Stewart
Is AJ Preller just following what ownership wants or is he just a bad GM?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think these are mutually exclusive.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Follow up on question about organizational rep and ability to land free agents: Is this the kind of thing that winning cures? For example, if the Astros make it to the ALCS, I assume people will worry less about their rep, especially given that they’re young and may be able to repeat for several years.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, once you’re winning, a lot of this stuff goes. Not all of it, but the Astros will be able to sign some free agents if they make the postseason.

Comment From Bob
yeah, but you have Todd Frazier way to low on list… I know you like to stick to your guns, but no one will destroy you for acknowledging that.

Dave Cameron: Frazier’s a good player, but it’s ~9 WAR for ~$20 million over the next two years, then a draft pick when he leaves. 40-50 is the right range for him.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
On the home field advantage in the WS question, do you mean interleague records for the two teams in the series, or the entire leagues’ interleague records for the season?

Dave Cameron: The whole league. And you end interleague by Aug 31 so you can set the AL/NL World Series game schedule well in advance of the postseason.

Comment From carl
Any chance that Cueto stays in the NL?

Dave Cameron: Sure. Dodgers could make a play for him, especially if they prefer him to Greinke long-term. They could trade for him, let Greinke walk, re-sign Cueto instead, and offset some of the cost of acquiring Cueto by getting the pick for Greinke leaving.

Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
Any thought to adding Michael Brantley this year at the back end of the list.? Even with the power regression, an outfielder with 3-4 WAR at $7 Million per year for the next 4 years is pretty good, no?

Dave Cameron: He was in the mix for the end of the list, but in the end, wasn’t that close. In the 51-75 group.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
i thought, before he started making deals, people had high opinion of preller. was this not the case?

Dave Cameron: People in the game have had very low opinions of Preller based on some of the stuff he pulled internationally.

Dave Cameron: (Not all people, of course. He had friends/allies, but lots of people had lots of bad stuff to say about him the last few years.)

Dave Cameron: Okay, I got to run. Baby duty calls.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.