Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/14

Dave Cameron: This week’s chat will probably be delayed by 10 or 15 minutes, as I’m reformatting the Trade Value post for today to return to the previous blurb style, as it appears preferable to a majority of the readers.

Dave Cameron: Apologies for the delay, but at least it comes with some benefit to you, unless you were one of the few who liked the experiment…

Dave Cameron: Alright, today’s trade value post is up. Only took an extra 1,000 words to do it blurb style. Hope you guys enjoy it, because man, blurbs are a lot more work.

Dave Cameron: I guess maybe I should provide a link: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Dave Cameron: And let’s chat.

Comment From Jason
What would be fair for the Players Association to ask for in return for banning smokeless tobacco in the next CBA?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the player’s association will go for an outright ban. They may go for a graduated change in the rules, perhaps as England just did with cigarettes, and ban them for players born after a certain year. That way, you’re on the path to eliminating it and making the intention clear without having to fight veterans who are set in their ways.

Comment From PieTraynee
What am I supposed to make of McCutchen’s defensive metrics? They’re good every other year, but is this an accurate description of his actual defense?

Dave Cameron: Take the average of the larger sample and assume he’s something closer to that on an annual basis. In other words, he’s fine, but not great.

Comment From Sean
How much should we take LD% into account when trying to decide how good or sustainable a player’s performance is? I have heard some say it is not important, while I Have heard others say it’s vital.

Dave Cameron: LD% isn’t predictive for most players, so using it to try and say that a player’s high or low BABIP will last is folly.

Comment From Paul Heyman
I liked the experiment. I’m also okay with blurbs. Question about Billy Hamilton: Any concern over the number of caught stealings? His SB% isn’t great for someone with that speed. Is there any evidence that shows younger speedsters reduce CS as they mature?

Dave Cameron: I think the high CS% comes from the fact that teams are so aware of him that he never gets a chance for the “surprise” steals that slower guys take sometimes. It’s an interesting question; is there such a thing as “too fast”, at which point additional speed actually makes it harder to steal bases successfully.

Comment From Guest
While the A’s “all in” move was the right thing to do, what about the Angels at this point? 1.5 game s back and 10 games against each other left to play, it seems like the Angels should trump the A’s in a move.

Dave Cameron: Well, the Angels don’t really have an Addison Russell to trade. But yes, they should try to win that division.

Comment From Kris
I was surprised Ventura was ranked so (relatively) high. Kluber is pre-arb just like Ventura and is projected by both systems to finish with more than 5 wins this year. Only 10 pitchers in baseball were worth 5 wins last year. That’s a lot of projection for Ventura to be ranked that far ahead of Kluber (and Teheran), no? If so much weight is put into age and projection, how high will Gausman and the elite minors guys (Giolito, Walker, etc) be ranked?

Dave Cameron: Ventura is 23, Kluber is 28. And the market wouldn’t pay the full price for Kluber’s FIP-based WAR given that he’s underperformed his peripherals as a big leaguer.

Dave Cameron: And the fact that both are pre-arb doesn’t mean the team control is the same. Ventura has an extra league minimum year that Kluber does not.

Comment From Bomok
Can we update National League pitcher WAr to add bonus points for those who can hit?

Dave Cameron: We track batting WAR for pitchers, and I think you could make a case for it being included in a pitcher’s MVP case. But generally, when someone asks which pitcher is having the best season, they only really care about what they are doing on the mound.

Comment From THE average sports fan
Went to watch the AS game last night with some friends. Replay came up and 2 ideas were floated. 1. Manager steps on the field that is a challenge, no delay. 2. Team loses a challenge, the opposing team is allowed to make a reliever ineligible for the game. What are your thoughts on these ideas?

Dave Cameron: The whole challenge system is dumb. Take it out of the manager’s hands. Replay ump makes the call to review or not review a play of his own accord. Problems solved.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
We had a debate yesterday about the amount of future HOFers in the game yesterday.. We had the over/under at 5. What do you got?

Dave Cameron: Way over. I think the historical average is much closer to 10-15, maybe even 20. I wrote about this last year, but I don’t remember the exact number.

Comment From Nats Fan
Rendon, the most underrated, valuable young hitter in the game?

Dave Cameron: The fact that he hasn’t yet appeared on the trade value series should tell you that I don’t underrate him.

Comment From Tell us
The nerdiest FG writer is _______ because ________?

Dave Cameron: David Wiers, because he’s also like an expert World of Warcraft player.

Comment From erghammer
Sort of a process question–do you and colleagues at Fangraphs have any inside sources about trade rumors, or are you just reading the tea leaves like the rest of us?

Dave Cameron: I have friends in the game. I don’t really refer to them as sources, and I’m not constantly sending them texts asking for gossip, but they tell me stuff sometimes. We’re not MLBTradeRumors, so that’s not really our focus, but if you do this long enough, you hear stuff.

Comment From Guest
Is stranding baserunners an actual skill or is it like hitting with RISP?

Dave Cameron: It’s a little bit more of a skill than hitting with RISP. Or, maybe more accurately said, there’s more variance in a pitcher’s ability to pitch from the stretch. Some of them just suck at it.

Comment From Brian
Obviously catchers eventually break down, but how ridiculous is Salvador Perez’s contract? As a Royals fan, I almost feel bad for him because it seems like the Royals are flat-out stealing money out of his pockets, even though they made him a multimillionaire.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s going to rank much higher this year than last year.

Comment From Pale Hose
Dave – is there a mismatch in the trade and free agent markets? You mentioned that teams pay more for prom talent in trades, but free agency seems to be linear.

Dave Cameron: It’s more of an information gap at the points of acquisition. Teams making mid-season trades can plan on leveraging their new players in the postseason, and can justify higher prices by including likely postseason performance. In the off-season, few teams have high odds of reaching the postseason, so you can’t factor that in as heavily.

Comment From Mike Trouts Neck
I suspect that the complaints about returning to the blurb style stem from certain readers desire to read only the snippets of the article that pertain to players whom they are interested in. This reading style ignores the context of the article and the particular holistic approach which makes your writing as salient as it is. I understand that as a public author you must consider probative the complaints of a seeming majority, however, I implore you not to concede to the “buzzfeed” generation’s need for all things to appear as superficial lists.

Dave Cameron: While I agree with you, the reality is that I’m writing for the audience, not for myself. If I simply published what interested me without regard to what the readers wanted, FanGraphs wouldn’t do very well.

Comment From Brett Gardner
I understand how a player with lots of team control is more valuable, and thus would fetch a larger return. But these players almost never get traded. For example, Arizona could probably kick start its rebuild by trading Goldy for a ransom of parts/prospects. But this won’t happen. Is it too risky for GMs? (seems like you’d be diversifying). Is it too hard for fans? for ownership? I guess I’d like you to explain exactly why the players on your trade value list get traded less likely than the ones who are not (which I am assuming, perhaps incorrectly, is the case).

Dave Cameron: Most MLB teams are extremely risk averse when it comes to trading players away. It’s basically information asymmetry. You become comfortable with what you have, and don’t want to exchange that for an unknown, or even multiple unknowns.

Comment From Cave Dameron
Will Joe Mauer rebound?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but concussion issues are worrisome.

Comment From Guest
Nice work on the Trade Value series. IYO, who has been the hardest player to figure out a value for?

Dave Cameron: The young cheap average bat/elite gloves are hard. Simmons, Hamilton, etc… Teams do pay for this skillset — see Ellsbury, Jacoby — but everyone’s knee jerk reaction is always to just judge a player by his bat, and they probably aren’t very good hitters.

Comment From Jon
Is Brantley’s breakout for real? You seemed to hedge some in your trade analysis.

Dave Cameron: No one can really know whether a breakout is real or not two months into it. It might be, but history says it probably isn’t.

Comment From STiVo
Does the AL’s home-field advantage in the World Series move the needle on teams’ WS odds in the Fangraphs 2014 Playoff Odds page?

Dave Cameron: No. It’s the difference in HFA in one game that might not even happen.

Comment From A. Lane
Tyranny of the majority! I liked the new format, it linked the players the better and provided more detail behind the thought process of rankings, which is more interesting than the actual list. I guess the Internet just loves lists.

Dave Cameron: I was kind of amazed at how willing people were to admit that they weren’t even willing to hit ctrl+f to find the section about the player they were wanting to read about, when they were willing to click the link in the first place. The internet has made us all exceptionally lazy.

Comment From JL
What’s your best guess as to the contract Jose Abreu would have received if he were a free agent after this year?

Dave Cameron: 10/200 maybe.

Comment From CircleChange11
What is your response to the well-explained arguments in the comments section yesterday in regards to Buxton’s ranking?

Dave Cameron: I must have missed that. All I saw were people saying “prospects! They’re not proven!”

Dave Cameron: Some people irrationally love minor leaguers, others irrationally think they’re all worthless.

Comment From STiVo
Every few weeks spawns the new Question That Will Not Die. The latest version seems to be “Oh no, what will the Cubs do with all of their SS prospects?” Maybe the better question is: “How many of these prospects are likely to pan out at the MLB level?

Dave Cameron: Bingo. Of their five big prospects, I’d guess two turn into good players, one turns into a useful role player, and two turn into nothing.

Comment From Baroque
Dave, what’s your take on the best move for the Orioles before the deadline? Trade for pitching? Trade for a second baseman? Do nothing?

Dave Cameron: Trade for the best upgrade you can get at the lowest cost. The package it comes in doesn’t really matter.

Comment From Tommy
Who do you view as some potential targets for the Reds to acquire to add some depth/stability to the corner positions while Votto is out?

Dave Cameron: Josh Willingham would make a lot of sense for them.

Comment From JBD
What is the single most effective way to determine regression for team ERA? Is it to look at team FIP?

Dave Cameron: A projection that includes multiple years of data.

Comment From Steven
If you average McCutchen’s defensive numbers, why don’t you do that in WAR? Do you think the single season numbers are a better indicator of past performance, whereas the average is a better indication of future performance?

Dave Cameron: It’s a different question. One is “what kind of defender is this guy?” while the other is “what kind of defense did this guy play in this time period?” While it’s clearly not perfect, WAR is supposed to be an accounting of what happened in a given year, and you don’t want to use regressed, multi-year estimates in a single year accounting system.

Comment From _David_
Maybe the impact of pitchers being aware of Hamilton is the most important benefit of his speed.

Dave Cameron: Except there is no evidence that “distracted pitchers” perform worse. The evidence actually shows that distracted hitters are the ones who take the penalty on SB attempts.

Comment From Justin
Could the Rockies ever get proper value in a trade for Tulo? Approx $10 million surplus value until 2020 or whenever. That’s insane. I can’t think of any precedent of trades of stars with favorable long term contracts like this.

Dave Cameron: They’d have to get back one huge premium piece. A Bogaerts or a Bryant or someone like that. You can’t do it for a pu pu platter of mediocre guys. It has to be another young franchise player, and some stuff.

Comment From Jeremy
Rizzo or Castro on the list? 2 All Stars under 25 tied up long term?

Dave Cameron: Rizzo yes, Castro no.

Comment From Craig
Regarding the Brady Aiken situation. How can the Astros expect Aiken’s loyalty for 7-10 some odd years in their organization after completely trashing him and his value over the last few weeks. Doesn’t make much sense to me. Also their maltreatment of Jacob Nix in this situation is appalling.

Dave Cameron: I haven’t seen them trash him, and I think we don’t know enough to make those kinds of judgments. They may be acting in poor faith, or they may have information we don’t have. I don’t know which it is.

Comment From #Natitude
Who’s a good historical comp for Anthony Rendon? He’s fun to watch hit!

Dave Cameron: Jeff Kent, maybe.

Comment From Shameless shoehorn
10-15 looks like a lot for this year? Care to name a few?

Dave Cameron: Well, you have a few obvious ones that are still active and would go in today with no further performance needed. Pujols, Jeter, probably Cabrera. Then you have the in-their-prime guys that are clearly on HOF paths, like Felix and Kershaw. Plus the army of young studs who could easily get there with a few more great years: Trout, Tulo, Stanton, etc…

Dave Cameron: And that’s not even including the huge number of bubble candidates who already have good cases and might not be done. Adrian Beltre, for instance.

Comment From Tucker
Any players besides Perkins and McCarthy that you know of that read FanGraphs? Or that are very sabermetric-savy?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there are some others.

Comment From Guest
Santana, Salazar, and Lindor for Price – that’s the reported deal the Rays wanted. Indians said Lindor is off the table. Would Santana, Salazar, and lesser minor league prospect get it done?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Guest
Thanks for going back to the list format. I come to FGs every day, checkout a few articles, sometimes pay attention to the chats. But the truth is I’m doing this at work so the amount of time/interest I can put into an article varies. I’d like to read the whole thing and get all the context, but my investment in any piece is usually less than total. I skim and I think many other people do. Just the reality of the world.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I get that. I still lament it, but I get it.

Comment From Jeff
Altuve not being in your Top 50 is kind of crazy despite having one of the most team friendly deals in mlb (locked up until 2019) for like $24mil total. Don’t you think he is at least a 3-4 WAR player going forward. The guy is 24!

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t think a guy who has had one half of one great season should be forecast for +3 to +4 WAR going forward. Don’t overreact to half seasons.

Comment From BassmanUW
Your two most likely Cubs’ prospects to turn into nothing? I’d guess Baez (so much bust potential) and Almora (has not shown the advanced approach at the plate many thought he would have, lacks big time offensive tools).

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d probably pick those same two.

Comment From Catoblepas
When was the last time somebody on the top-50 list was actually traded? It seems to happen verrry infrequently, probably due to willingness to pay/accept asymmetry.

Dave Cameron: It happens a decent amount, actually. Usually not one of the top 10 guys, but the back-end guys do get moved.

Comment From CircleChange11
I’ll rephrase: What is your response to the commenter wondering how Buxton could be 38 and Springer not ranked? I find it hard to believe Buxton would fetch more in a trade.

Dave Cameron: Did you have the same reaction a few months ago when Buxton was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball and Springer usually ranked in the #15-#30 range? Because everyone, and I mean everyone, agreed that Buxton was far more valuable then. Nothing has changed much since.

Comment From Gareth
Yan Gomes and mike aviles for esmil rogers. Best trade of the past few years?

Dave Cameron: Prince Fielder’s insane contract for Ian Kinsler.

Comment From Todd
Why no Castro? Young, cheap contract, good performance thus far…

Dave Cameron: We have different definitions of good performance, I guess. He’s an average player.

Comment From Slew (Seattle)
Wait, what? Santana + Salazar, with a total of 8+ years of team control between them, making $4.5M this year and $6.5M the next isn’t worth 8 months of Price @$20M? Really?

Dave Cameron: The Rays can do better than a 1B/DH with a good-not-great bat and a pitcher who may or may not be broken.

Comment From Anton
wRC+ shows how many percentage points above the average that a hitter is, but why doesn’t it account for standard deviation? When comparing across different seasons, two player can have a wRC+ of 140, but player 1 could have played in a season with more 140’s than player 2’s season, making player 2 better.

Dave Cameron: Nope, that’s not how value works. Runs are worth what they are worth, and the distribution of types of hitters is irrelevant to that total.

Comment From A. Lane
More overrated as a prospect group, flame throwers with control issues or power hitters who lack strike zone control/very high K%?

Dave Cameron: Flame throwers. Aaron Sanchez strikes me as maybe the most overrated prospect in recent history, for example.

Dave Cameron: Okay, I think I’ve made up the time I lost at the front end. Thanks for hanging out. We’ll do it again next week, when crazy trade rumor season really kicks into high gear.