Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/22/15

Dave Cameron: It’s 10 days until the trade deadline, so this seems like a good chat to focus on the deals, rumors, and speculations of the day. Or if you wanted to ask about the Trade Value series from last week, we can do that too.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open.

Comment From marc
Does alex guerro to the pirates make sense?

Dave Cameron: No, because he’s not very good and his contract makes him mostly untradable.

Dave Cameron: They’re probably the team that makes the most sense for Ben Zobrist, though.

Comment From Bobby Ayala
What do you think the Mariners’ record would be without Rodney on the roster?

Dave Cameron: Mostly the same.

Comment From The Average Sports Fan
Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro have both become disasters. Which is a bigger surprise?

Dave Cameron: Andrus. He was actually good, while Castro was mostly hype and projection.

Comment From Guest
How close was Kolten Wong to making your trade value list?

Dave Cameron: He was in the 50-75 group.

Comment From Guest
Should the Cardinals trade an outfielder? If so, it would probably be Bourjos, right?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know why they’d make their MLB team worse at this point. They should keep their good MLB players, Bourjos included.

Comment From Amir
Do you think the Yankees will look to upgrade their rotation with CC struggling?

Dave Cameron: I bet they do something smaller, a buy-low on a guy like Latos or Iwakuma instead of going after one of the big names.

Comment From Guest
What is your opinion on Stephen Piscotty?

Dave Cameron: I don’t get why he’s considered a good prospect, honestly. Good contact skills, below average power, limited defensive value, not a great baserunner. He looks like a bench player to me.

Comment From marc
do the pirates, with all of their injuries make a move for an impact bat?

Dave Cameron: There aren’t any of those available. I think Napoli, Zobrist, and a reliever would be a very good deadline for them.

Comment From Erlich
Seems like Iwakuma could be a sneaky-good pickup for the Astros. Could Singleton be the kind of one-dimensional player that would excite Jack Z?

Dave Cameron: Unlikely. But I agree that if the Mariners do decide to move Iwakuma, he’s a guy the smart teams will be targeting.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
Now it looks like the mets may really consider bringing up conforto. I think youve said hes not the answer for right now in previous chats, he has to be one of the top 3 outfielders in the whole org (majors included) right now, right? especially given the mets apparent reluctance to spend money or prospects to upgrade the team. does it make any more sense now?

Dave Cameron: I remain unconvinced that he’s anything more than a replacement level outfielder in the big leagues right now.

Dave Cameron: Gerardo Parra makes a ton of sense for them.

Comment From Moop
What are the Ms supposed to do with Zunino?

Dave Cameron: Admit they made a mistake in rushing him, let him go back to the minors and start his development path over.

Comment From STS
Best guess, who will be next in closing games that is not a closer now?

Dave Cameron: Wade Davis, when the Royals trade Holland this winter.

Comment From The Famous Singer, Rob Stewart
So that Kyle Schwarber guy…Cubs are gonna have to keep him up, aren’t they?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’ll stick around the rest of the year. That said, the very low contact rate is a bit concerning for a guy who is supposed to be a hit-before-power type, and that stabilizes pretty quickly. If he’s really going to strike out 25% of the time, he’s going to have to hit for a lot of power to live up to the hype.

Comment From marc
Who (teams/players) will get the trade deadline started?

Dave Cameron: I’d bet the Dodgers and Royals both trade for starters soon, given their needs and the injuries they suffered last night.

Comment From dom
No knock against Bill Simmons, but his trade value series seemed to be more subjective than yours, saying things like “Shaq has to be number one because if he was ever traded he would make it his personal mission to come back and haunt you”. Do you think this reflects a difference in the two sports or you guys as writers?

Dave Cameron: He’s an entertainer, and i’m more of an analyst. His sense of humor appeals to millions; mine to dozens. I don’t think we were really trying to do the same thing, despite the fact that the pieces shared a name.

Comment From Dave Dombrowski
From one Dave to another, in reference to yet another – what is your estimate of a realistic return I could expect from the Dodgers for David Price?

Dave Cameron: Jose de Leon and a throw-in.

Comment From STLJeff
Do you see the Cards making any sort of impact move for a bat or starter at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. I could see them adding some addition RP depth and maybe looking for a better first baseman, but that’s about it.

Comment From Colby
Tigers send Price and Cespedes to Dodgers for Puig, De leon, and Lee. Possible?

Dave Cameron: The Tigers duo aren’t worth anything close to that.

Comment From MJ
Norris, Hoffman, Alford for Cueto, Chapman. Who says no, Jays or Reds? On a more general note, do you think the Jays should go “all in” and focus on this year and next year as their main windows to compete?

Dave Cameron: I bet the Jays would turn that down, though if the Reds added Bruce, they might consider it.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t necessarily go all-in on 2015, given that the Wild Card game is still a crapshoot, but I’d definitely try to make a run this year, within reason.

Comment From Qbert
Could the Mariners trade Nelson Cruz without eating any of his contract?

Dave Cameron: Yes, but they won’t.

Dave Cameron: (sorry for slower than usual responses: Cover It Live is sucking today.)

Comment From Colby
Do you think the Tigers could expect a return on Soria like what they gave up for him or has Sorias value tanked due to performance and being a rental?

Dave Cameron: You don’t give up the same for half a year of a guy as you do for a year and a half of the same guy performing even worse.

Comment From Chris
Is Puig really a candidate to be traded? Where might he land?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be stunned if the Dodgers traded him, but there’s no obvious fit. If the White Sox made Sale available, or there was another good young starter under control for multiple years, I’d think it would be more likely, but there isn’t really.

Comment From Matt
This season started so horribly for the Brewers, but now they have won 17 games out of 23. Clearly theyaren’t making the playoffs this season. But should they still go full fire sale?

Dave Cameron: Yes, it’s time to blow things up and start over.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
so last year they said that if more people came to the games, theyd spend. this year, attendance is up almost 9% (and I would imagine that revenues would also be up), the payroll is lower, they are collecting insurance money on Wright, and yet the mets are still balking at taking on $3 mil in salary on zobrist? this is an embarassment

Dave Cameron: There’s zero reason to believe that won’t-take-Zobrist’s-money rumor. It’s exactly the kind of thing that gets a lot of headlines so is easy for someone to run with, but it didn’t come from any of the people who generally get information like this, and it contradicts every other credible source out there.

Comment From James
Do you think the Puig + parts for Hamels rumor has any merit?

Dave Cameron: Puig > Hamels. So, uh, no.

Comment From nik
If both were traded as a pair, which would net a larger return – Hamels + Papelbon or Cueto + Chapman?

Dave Cameron: Cueto and Chapman, by a lot.

Comment From Josh I
What would the Mets have to give up for Zobrist?

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll cost something close to what the A’s gave up to get him. Maybe 10-15% less, but in the same range.

Comment From Chris
You noted the Tigers shouldn’t sell because of their expected playoff odds this year. But looking to the future, how much should we weight a potential boost to playoff odds in the coming years from the prospects/players that the Tigers could receive for trading Price/Cespedes?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think acquiring prospects will move the needle for their future playoff odds much. This is a team that is going to be bad soon, maybe as soon as next year, and all trading the present for future will do is make a bad team a little less bad.

Dave Cameron: I just don’t buy Dombrowski’s “we have a good young core” argument. J.D. Martinez is good. Iglesias is fine. McCann is okay, maybe. And that’s about it. Castellanos stinks, and everyone else who is any good is declining.

Comment From Anthony
What’s a fair price for Zobrist? (If you can answer specifically for the Pirates that would be wonderful, but I’d also be happy with a general answer).

Dave Cameron: The A’s are going to want 2016 guys, not long-term projects. In Pitt, that’s probably Josh Bell and something.

Comment From Gary
Think Kazmir winds up in the NL?

Dave Cameron: I think most people are betting on Houston.

Comment From Sleight of Hand Pro
should the Astros be looking at rentals like Cueto? or is it smarter to search for guys that will help for multiple years, like Hamels? since their window is just now opening?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re probably better off going for two pitchers like Samardzija and Kazmir, or Iwakuma and Ross, or something along those lines.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that paying the ace-tax to get get a guy who might not be that much better than Keuchel to pitch in a Wild Card game is a good idea.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Does Craig Kimbrel get moved? Why haven’t we heard more about a potential move there?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone really believes the Padres are going to blow it up entirely.

Comment From Snarfle
Do you see the Mets doing anything beyond finding a cheapish 2nd tier outfielder? Would you go bigger?

Dave Cameron: No, I think a Parra type and maybe a depth infielder is probably the right call.

Comment From Julio Pepper
What does Greinke get? 5/150? Less?

Dave Cameron: Depends on if he stays with LA or not. I bet if he stays with the Dodgers, it’s something like that, maybe 5/140. If he goes elsewhere, I bet he gets 6 or 7 years, probably at 25 a year.

Comment From Blerg
Longoria has precipitously fallen from your Top 50 Trade Values. Roughly where would he fall now? Top 100? You do still consider him a trade asset and not a liability, right?

Dave Cameron: For sure. He’d have been on the list if I did a top 75.

Comment From MIchael
What big name pitcher do you think gets moved first? And bat?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess Samardzija goes first.

Comment From mapsamountainrange
How long until we see the first big trade – and what teams do you think are involved?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess the Blue Jays pick up Samardzija in the next 3 days. Total guess, but there you go.

Comment From JL
What do you think about the Jays putting Sanchez in the bullpen?

Dave Cameron: It’s where he belongs.

Comment From Joe
What about Uribe to the Pirates? I’d love zobrist but I can’t see Huntington being willing to give up what it would take for Zorilla

Dave Cameron: Rumor has it that the Braves are putting very high prices on their rentals.

Dave Cameron: But Uribe would fit in Pittsburgh pretty well.

Comment From Matt
What do you see the Royals doing? Seems like Zobrist would be perfect — platoon with Rios in RF and spell (or replace) Infante at 2nd.

Dave Cameron: Cueto/Bruce combo works better.

Comment From Jaack
Which of the trade value placements will probably look the dumbest this time next year?

Dave Cameron: Whichever pitcher blows out their arm.

Comment From mmarsden
What will it cost a team to get Chapman? Do you believe he gets moved?

Dave Cameron: A lot, and yes. I wouldn’t be shocked if the return for Chapman was more than for most of the starters.

Comment From Andy in W-S
Will Andrelton Simmons ever learn to hit?

Dave Cameron: Maybe. There’s great contact skills and some power there, so he just needs to get his BABIP up 20-30 points. It could happen.

Comment From MSW
Schwarber or Sano long term?

Dave Cameron: Sano.

Comment From Nick
Napoli is just a straight salary dump for Boston, right?

Dave Cameron: They’ll eat the cash to get a prospect back instead.

Comment From Matt
In the near term, does it make sense for the Cubs to move Russell to SS or is that an offseason change? Castro value appears to completely eroded, no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Castro’s playing himself out of any trade value. At this point, he’s getting close to a salary dump/change-of-scenery guy.

Comment From Alex
Given that some of the league’s best hitters have low contact rates, why is it always such a big concern with up-and-coming prospects? Hasn’t Schwarber proven that his hit/power tools make up for it?

Dave Cameron: In 41 at-bats? No, he most certainly has not.

Comment From Doug
Will RAJ get what he wants for Hamels? Rosenthal thinks not.

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll get a solid return, and if the Rangers decide they should be buying for whatever reason, he has a chance of landing a package that won’t look too bad. But they’re the only team who might do something dumb and overpay, probably. Everyone else involved realizes the contract isn’t that great.

Comment From Dave Dombrowski
You think a rental David Price is worth less than a rental Andrew Miller was last year? Guess that’s why I’m the “Dave” in the GM’s office

Dave Cameron: Eduardo Rodriguez’s value was down at the time of the trade last year; velo was down early in the year, wasn’t pitching that well. What he did after the trade isn’t reflective of the return.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Is Parra really good? I feel like he’s always been a replacement outfielder but since June he’s hitting .348 with a 164 WRC+. Obviously that’s not completely sustainable, but what do you see of him ROS and long-term?

Dave Cameron: You feel like a guy with +11 WAR in 3,300 PAs has always been a replacement OF?

Dave Cameron: He’s a solid average to above average big leaguer.

Comment From Tom
As a Cards fan, I am happy you don’t think much of Piscotty, seeing as how you were wrong on Carlos Martinez and Matt Carpenter 😉

Dave Cameron: I was actually a huge Matt Carpenter fan, and one of his loudest proponents coming up, but nice try.

Comment From James
Who do you see as the biggest name in current rumors who doesn’t get moved?

Dave Cameron: Price. I don’t see the Tigers selling.

Comment From dom
Puig for Harvey was bandied about. I don’t think it makes the Mets better though.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s a lateral move for the Mets, probably. It’s risky upside for risky upside.

Comment From Mike
Dave, Mark Buehrle should obviously be offered a contract for next year if he wants to pitch….what do you think it might look like?

Dave Cameron: I’d make him a Qualifying Offer, or give him something like 3/36 if he preferred multiple years.

Comment From ar
if you’re the phillies, would you pay hamels’ entire contract, and basically buy prospects?

Dave Cameron: Yep, but ownership groups generally don’t want to do that.

Comment From hscer
as a pair, more for Sale-Abreu or Cueto-Chapman

Dave Cameron: Sale/Abreu by a country mile. Sale would get more than Cueto/Chapman by himself.

Comment From Johnny
If you were the Rockies would you trade Arenado for 6 years of Carlos Rodon?

Dave Cameron: No way.

Comment From piscotty
have you seen the triple-a slash lines for piscotty? what else does he need to do there?

Dave Cameron: I’m not saying he belongs in AAA anymore, but he also ran a .118 ISO in AAA a year ago, in more at-bats. Just looking at 2015 doesn’t tell the whole story.

Comment From Guest
Is it a foregone conclusion that Latos is moved? Reports now that he has worn out his welcome in Miami. Do that affect his trade value or overblown?

Dave Cameron: Those reports won’t affect anything, but the fact that he leaves a trail of teammates who hate him behind every time he moves will.

Comment From Johnny
Would you trade Puig for Quintana?

Dave Cameron: No, probably not.

Comment From Rick
Hamels WAR is 2x Cueto’s. Papelbon’s is significantly higher than Chapman’s. If the Phillies are willing to add cash to the deal (for Paps salary) why wouldn’t they get significantly higher return?

Dave Cameron: 2.3 * 2 != 2.7.

Comment From Johnny
Why was Noah Syndergaard left off top 50 list? You can argue he is a top 15 pitcher already AND he is under control for 6+ years.

Dave Cameron: Good thing he wasn’t left off then.

Comment From CuriousCat
Who do you see as the biggest name NOT in current rumors who DOES get moved?

Dave Cameron: I could see the A’s selling high on Josh Reddick.

Comment From dom
Does the fact that Pujols is on record saying how he’s financially set and if it gets really ugly he’ll retire increase his trade value at all?

Dave Cameron: Remember when Dan Haren was going to retire if the Dodgers traded him? When push comes to shove, guys generally don’t walk away from guaranteed money.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
Matt Carpenter MILB – 1197 ABs, 75 doubles, 28 homers, 299/408/48; Piscotty – 1457, 101 doubles, 39 homers, 288/360/444 slash and 18 less strikeouts in 350 more at bats. you loved carpenter and you hate piscotty?

Dave Cameron: Carpenter walked twice as often, hit for same or more power, and could play a good 3B (and as it turned out, an adequate 2B).

Comment From dom
Would you rather have Price or Greinke pitch a playoff game for you?

Dave Cameron: Price.

Comment From Jake
Do you foresee any of the disappointing pre-season darlings (i.e. Boston, Cleveland, Seattle) making big moves in either direction? Do they just stand pat and hope they play their ways back into it?

Dave Cameron: I could see them all making minor sell-off moves, dumping guys like Uehara, Napoli, Iwakuma, and Swisher. Nothing major, most likely.

Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s it for me today. We’ll do it again next week, and Eno will be here for the weird chat tomorrow.