Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 9/13/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Ohtani Rumor Day, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Here’s what I wrote about his situation this morning.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-to-sign-shohei-otani/

Dave Cameron: We can talk about other things too, of course, but I’m guessing this will be an Ohtani-heavy chat.

PF: Is there ANY chance whatsoever the Jays get Otani? They had like five guys there scouting him…. or is that just advance scouting for next season when he’s with the Yankees…..

Dave Cameron: Sure, I think you could reasonably argue that every team has a greater than 0% chance here. This isn’t a situation where the big market teams can just drive the bidding to a place where the low revenue clubs can’t afford to get involved. Everyone will be able to afford Ohtani. So if someone can make a particularly great argument for why he’d be best served joining their organization, I wouldn’t rule anyone out.

Dave Cameron: Even the Padres could theoretically say something like “look, we’re not going to be good when you get here, but that means we can afford to give you 300 at-bats and it doesn’t matter. No contender can give you the two-way playing time we can.”

The Average Sports Fan: I don’t understand why Ohtani doesn’t wait until he is 25 to come over.  The loss of money is so incredible.   Why do you think he is doing this?

Dave Cameron: Well, there are diminishing returns, and he’s going to be a rich dude regardless. So he might just care more about challenging himself than becoming super extra rich.

ChiSox2020: Who are the top 3 favorites for Otani?

Dave Cameron: Everyone is going to say the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs, just because the assumption will be big market contender with money to throw at him in a future extension. But I don’t think this is a Harper-esque situation where you can eliminate the other 27 teams. Maybe the Phillies make a really interesting pitch? Maybe Seattle pitches him on the community aspects of living in Seattle? Maybe he really wants to be teammates with Darvish and he goes wherever Yu goes?

Shohei Otani: Where would you place me in your trade value rankings as of today?

Dave Cameron: Assuming he signs the generic UPC that locks him in for six years with no extra guarantees, probably 7-15. High-risk/high-reward, similar to Judge, who ended up 6th. More uncertainty than with a hitter who had already destroyed the Majors, but probably more upside too, if he can be a two way superstar.

det_otani: Is Otani likely to go to mlb as a hitter?

Dave Cameron: No. Pretty much universal consensus that he’s an elite arm and a good bat.

mike: Cleveland. That’s it. Just Cleveland. Not a question, just a wow.

Dave Cameron: This is a remarkable run, no question.

The Man With No Name: What kind of current-player comp do you put on Matt Olson?

Dave Cameron: He looks like what Kyle Schwarber was supposed to be.

Dave Cameron: (That’s still only a ~+3 WAR player, since Schwarber was wildly overrated, but it’s a nice thing to have around)

The Man With No Name: If you’re the Dodgers, where do you plan to play Bellinger long-term?

Dave Cameron: Probably the outfield. First base feels like a waste of his athleticism.

Dylan: So do my A’s have a chance to get Otani if the money truly doesn’t matter and they get creative with playing time/contract stuff?

Dave Cameron: Everyone should at least take a shot.

Dave Cameron: It can’t hurt.

Q-Ball: If Mike Trout hadn’t signed that extension, he would be a FA this offseason.  What would a realistic Mike Trout FA contract look like?   Shock us…..

Dave Cameron: 15/$600M with some opt-outs.

Keith Hernandez: ESPN’s Instagram account posted a “Who Should Win NL MVP” post this morning with Stanton, Harper, Arenado, and Goldy.  No mention of Blackmon.  I’ve abandoned Sportscenter as my go to for sports news for awhile now, but come on guys… you can’t even include the probable front runner in there?

Dave Cameron: Realistically, Blackmon isn’t the probable frontrunner.

Dave Cameron: Can argue that he should be, but he’s not.

Mac: How much do you expect having a progressive FO will factor in to where ohtani signs if he wants to remain a 2-way player?

Dave Cameron: Not very highly.

Raphael: Is there any chance Otani signs a deal that allows him to become a free agent sooner (like Cespedes), or is that not allowed?

Dave Cameron: Not allowed.

Q-Ball: If the Cubs traded a position player this offseason for pitching, who do you think has the most value:  Schwarber, or Happ?   Or do you think the Cubs should consider offers for Addison Russell, given Javy’s play at SS?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine Happ has passed Schwarber in trade value at this point.

Dave Cameron: And Baez is having a typical Javy Baez season. I’m not sure why what he’s done would have a significant impact on the decision. You keep Russell if you think he’s going to bounce back. You trade him if you don’t.

LegallyEagle: I’m guessing MLB will stay silent rather than post an official “position” on how a team would go about considering an extension with Otani? Just see if w/e materializes is remotely “reasonable.’

Dave Cameron: I would guess that the 30 teams will receive some kind of memo just reminding them of the rules.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, they can’t lay out ahead of time where they’ll draw the line.

ManBearPuig: Over or under on Rhys Hoskins’s wrc+ for next year:  140.

Dave Cameron: I’ll take the under because that’s a high bar for anyone.

Dave Cameron: But he’s a good hitter, pretty clearly.

Jason: Please give me something about Matt Olson. Very little out there on him at all, and the dude has been a beast. Please get someone to write an article on him soon.

Dave Cameron: I wrote about him two days ago. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-as-found-another-building-block/

HoskinsSmash: Would you mind explaining the logic behind why HRs are not counted as Balls in play for BABIP?  Other than the obvious fact that they leave the confines of the field.

Dave Cameron: BABIP came to be a thing when DIPS theory was pushed forward by Voros McCracken. Since he was showing that non-HR hit rate was mostly random, HRs had to be excluded from the calculation.

v2micca: Still find it hard to believe that Ohtani will post this year.  After reading your article, I increasingly suspect some team has already made a under the table agreement with him for an early extension in 2019.

Dave Cameron: I really doubt there’s already something in place.

Dave Cameron: When teams get international guys to agree to deals before they turn 16, it’s usually an open secret, and those guys don’t keep working out for others. If Ohtani already had some big money guarantee from someone, I suspect his thigh injury would have lingered and he wouldn’t have taken the mound again this year.

Charlie: MLB Network calls you up and asks you for your recommendation for a Saber savvy writer to have his own show. Geography notwithstanding, who do you recommend?

Dave Cameron: Jonah Keri

Dave Cameron: He’s the most TV-ready baseball nerd.

Brian: Recently that the game odds appear to be indicating stronger probabilities (~75% win probability) than I thought likely for any single game. Is this a product of the end of the season (more complete information) and some unique match ups (Kluber vs Detroit) or has there been a change in the way single game odds are calculated?

Dave Cameron: Just match-ups. The Indians are really good and this Tigers roster is really bad.

Dookie Howser, MD: RE: Otani-mania: Remember Daisuke Matsuzaka? I remember Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Dave Cameron: Dice-K threw 92. Otani throws 100.

Big Tuna: If you were one of the teams that basically is payroll constrained at or around the luxury tax line (Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers, Nationals, Giants, Angels), and Mike Trout were a free agent after this season, how much would be be willing to pay him on a 1 year deal?

Dave Cameron: Probably $60-$70M.

Jeff: Smash my hopes early and tell me why the Nats have no chance at signing Otani

Dave Cameron: They’ll probably try to backload the posting fee.

Zach: If Otani makes a team promise they’d play him two ways, would he make more sense for an AL team (so he can just DH) or an NL team (so he can play some outfield and also bat every game he’s the pitcher)?

Dave Cameron: I think an NL team. It’s going to be hard for an AL team to promise an unknown run at DH, where the bar for playing time is pretty high. It’s much easier for an NL team to be confident that he’s a better hitter than their other pitchers, and say he could pinch hit for the P every game he doesn’t start.

Julio Pepper: Otani gets 300m as a free agent, right? Tanaka got 155 w/ opt out, and by all accounts Otani’s much better, is younger, and can hit. (Also, Ohtani or Otani?)

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably. Depends on opt-outs and length, but no question it cracks $200M, and probably goes well over.

stever20: So realistically who is the favorite for the AL Cy Young right now?  Corey Kluber or Chris Sale?

Dave Cameron: Narrative + ERA probably gives Kluber the edge.

Mr. Fister: Hard to believe that ANY playoff contender could be running out guys like Big Bart, Kyle Gibson, etc….A testament to how bad the AL is after Houston and Cleveland?

Dave Cameron: Boston is fine too.

Dave Cameron: There are three good teams in the AL. The Yankees are decent. Everyone else is meh or worse.

Babe Lincoln: Presumably guaranteeing SO a chance to play both ways in MLB could be a big boost in trying to sign him.  So what would you propose to him as the hitting/pitching arrangement if you’re the GM?

Dave Cameron: No one is going to let him play the field, and I don’t know that an AL team can really promise that he can be a regular DH without seeing him hit against MLB pitching. They could offer to have that be the starting plan, but if he’s quickly exposed as a hitter, you can’t run out a black hole at a bat-only position forever.

Dave Cameron: So I think an NL team makes the most sense. He bats when he pitches and he is the first pinch-hitter off the bench on other days.

Hizouse: Critical question: should I start spelling it “Ohtani” instead of “Otani”?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that seems to be the preferred spelling. I originally went with Otani in my post today, but changed it after we received an email suggesting that Ohtani was more correct.

LegallyEagle: Is it even possible for Otani to buy an insurance policy to cover potential loss of earning potential in the instance of an injury? Like I’m sure it’s > 0% to find said policy, but to cover a potential loss of say a quarter billion, Otani likely has to pay an absurd amount?

Dave Cameron: The policies players can usually buy are for catastrophic injury that prevent you from playing. So he could get a deal that covered him if he couldn’t keep playing, but not one that paid him lost wages if he just had normal pitcher arm problems that he rehabbed.

Big Joe Mufferaw: As a yankee fan, is it crazy for me to be VERY disappointed if they don’t sign him? I see this guy as a risk free FA, because the contract is small, if he blows out his arm, you might have an everyday Corner OFer or DH. If he can translate his hitting you have a full time pitcher, with stuff to start and close.

Dave Cameron: That’s why fans of every team should be disappointed if they don’t sign him.

Dave Cameron: The Yankees aren’t entitled to him just because they’re the Yankees.

HugoZ: Do you believe there’d be another grievance filed if Acuna isn’t brought up until mid-April?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Boras whined about it when the Cubs did it with Bryant, but in the end, nothing happened.

Chaps: I’m somewhat confused by the financial side of signing Otani. Every team has an international pool for this upcoming off season, which would only effect the signing bonus that he could receive? So a team with a limited international pool would still pay him the same base salary as a team with no limitations, but the difference would be the signing bonus. Is that correct?

Dave Cameron: Yes. But the bonus pools aren’t for the off-season; they’re for the period that began on July 2nd. So some teams have already spent good sized chunks of their bonus pools.

Dave Cameron: But, yes, Ohtani will sign a standard uniform player contract after agreeing to a bonus amount of some size with some team, and then he’ll make the league minimum (or close to it) next year, regardless of who signs him.

TK: Where do you think Otani would be in the current prospect rankings if he were eligible today?

Dave Cameron: #1, probably.

Dave Cameron: I love Vlad and Acuna is obviously very exciting, but Ohtani is probably more ready to make an impact in 2018, and it’s not clear there’s less upside.

Al Gone Quinn: What would you estimate the WAR split (in %) will be for Otani’s career offensive WAR vs pitching WAR?

Dave Cameron: 90/10 pitching.

Santos: So if Otani proves that you can succeed as a pitcher-hitter, do you think other teams will follow suit and develop players that way?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine Brendan McKay and Hunter Greene are probably hoping so.

Rhys Hoskins: Throw some cold water on me.

Dave Cameron: 80% of your extra base hits going for home runs is unsustainable.

Dave Cameron: He doesn’t actually hit the ball that hard for a slugger; his FB+LD exit velocity is just 94 mph.

Dave Cameron: So, don’t expect this Stanton-esque HR pace to keep up.

Dave Cameron: That said, nothing wrong with a high-walk, average-K, above-average power skillset.

AK: Is there any timeline on when he would be posted / when he would decide where to sign?  Would we expect it to take place during the normal winter activities, or could potentially it extend through spring training and into the season?

Dave Cameron: MLB and NPB have to re-work the posting agreement, so that might slow things down.

Dave Cameron: I’d guess he’d be posted in November or December, and then he’d have 30 days to sign.

Dave Cameron: So maybe signs around Christmas?

Anthony: What I don’t get about the whole “float the extension to Otani after a year” argument that it assumes he’ll be elite. If he’s not as good as expected year one (or even just gets injured), isn’t he just left holding the bag?

Dave Cameron: Yes, that’s the risk he’s assuming.

Dave Cameron: If he wanted a maximum guarantee without having to play in MLB first, he’d wait two years.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: If you’d have to choose the LEAST likely places for Otani, (sigh), Milwaukee would have to be one of them, right? Not much in the way of interestingness of city, probably can’t afford to take major risks with allowing him to play 2 ways, small market team…is there any reason he’d entertain a Brewers offer?

Dave Cameron: Maybe he really likes sausage?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably put the Royals down as the very least likely team to sign him.

Dave Cameron: Have their own guys to try and sign this winter, can’t offer to let him pinch hit for other Ps, and I don’t think KC has a thriving Asian community for him to join.

Big Joe Mufferaw: 600 Million? Maybe that’s what the saber community feels he should be paid, but I doubt an MLB owner or GM would reset the market by THAT much. (What was the biggest contract before A-Rod signed for 250m?

Dave Cameron: Because of how the luxury tax works, a team is much better off doing a very long deal than a shorter, higher salary deal. So the incentives are there to push the term out as much as possible.

Dave Cameron: And if you don’t think Trout is worth $40M per year, I don’t know what to tell you.

Chaps: Do you think teams will try some sort of “under-the-table” deal to sign Otani, or do you think they’ll play by the rules with regards to signing him?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think any team will risk having anything official in place. If he blows out his arm a month into his rookie season, but then you announce a 10 year extension a few months later, MLB won’t allow it.

Dave Cameron: So it will have to be some kind of “we can’t promise this, but as long as everything goes smoothly, let’s talk in 12 months” thing.

AK: Have there been any previous cases where MLB punished a team for circumventing negotiation rules before?  Would the player ever be held accountable in that type of situation, or would only the team get punished?

Dave Cameron: The Red Sox got banned from signing international players at all because they were packaging players together to get around the bonus rules.

Dave Cameron: They weren’t the only one doing it, but they were the one MLB made an example of.

Nick: If you were a GM with a team that could reasonably contend next year, how would you try to sign Otani, and would you attempt to do something under the table? Seems like some moral hazard here.

Dave Cameron: It’s a tough situation, because he was clearly not the kind of player that the league had in mind when they created the bonus pool caps.

Dave Cameron: If you’re going to make a purely ethical argument, you could argue that getting him as much money as possible is the truly moral thing to do, given that the league’s restrictions on his earnings aren’t particularly fair or just.

Bink: How much of a concern is Darvish’s control for the Dodgers this post season and for his free agency next year?  Darvish is still more desirable than Tanaka, true or false?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Dodgers will abuse Darvish this winter just because he’s heading to FA, and yes, he’s significantly more valuable than Tanaka.

Average Team Age: if Arenado is a top 5 contender for NL MVP, why is Blackmon not?

Dave Cameron: He is. But he’s not going to be an obvious candidate for voters who want to tell an easy story, and he hasn’t separated himself from the pack enough to be championed by those pushing for the  most deserving winner. He’s one of many good candidates.

Ray : What would you say to someone who thinks Hoskins is the next Russell Branyan?

Dave Cameron: That person doesn’t know what contact rate is.

Jackson C: The scouting report for Otani is obviously extremely positive, but is there any chance he disappoints against MLB competition?

Dave Cameron: Of course.

Gronch: Question: why is the Pitch Talks event in SF 21+? Personally, this is really the first time It’s been in my area, and I would’ve loved to go

Dave Cameron: The venue makes that call.

Bink: Apparently Otani asked people to spell his name Ohtani like Jojima asked to have his name spelled Johjima because it phoneticizes a sound for which there is no sufficient character in English, aka roman alphabet.  I think I have this right.

Dave Cameron: I will take your word for it.

PF: Does each team truly have an equal chance of signing Ohtani?

Dave Cameron: Well, no, definitely not. But I think every team has a >0% chance.

Dave Cameron: If you’re handicapping it, maybe it’s something like 15-20% for the top contenders, and 1% for the middle-of-the-country teams.

Bink: I think a number of teams (Mariners for sure, Angels almost certainly) would be more than happy to write consistent DH opportunities into an Otani contract.  I think if he struggles a ton, maybe it gets reworked, but I find it unlikely Otani would be satisfied with hitting once every five days.

Dave Cameron: The Mariners are going to force Nelson Cruz to the OF, where he’d almost certainly hurt himself and miss time, in order to guarantee DH at-bats to a guy who may or may not be able to hit big league pitching?

Dave Cameron: No.

Bernard : Hey Dave, would you recommend being an Economics major? Not for the purposes of baseball jobs, but I was considering switching my major from a humanities major.

Dave Cameron: An econ degree gets you in the door in a lot of different things. If you want to keep your options open, it’s a good choice.

El Jefe: If you HAD to guess TODAY, where do you think Ohtani lands?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably say the Dodgers or Cubs are the favorites.

Jackson C: Do you see any teams trading for extra international bonus pool money in hopes of wooing Ohtani with the monetary edge?

Dave Cameron: Some teams have already done that.

Dave Cameron: But is he really going to choose where to sign based on $4M versus $7M? Unlikely.

Dooduh: Are there any non-Ohtani questions in the queue?

Dave Cameron: Not that many.

Webster: Would using him as a closer in the ninth and a hitter the rest of the game provide more WAR? Or would starting be the most viable option.

Dave Cameron: It depends on how good the bat is. But we also have no idea what the fatigue affect would be for trying to pitch after playing the first eight innings as a hitter.

Matt: Ohtani has to sign a standard contract, but if the team determines the salary, could they just totally throw the arbitration system out of whack and give him a contract for, say, 5M? Or would that fall under the “circumventing the international pool” rule?

Dave Cameron: MLB would shoot that down.

Kiermeier: so, in regards to Ohtani, if the O’s keep trading international bonus pool $$, this affects what they could offer bonus-wise to Ohtani, correct?  As an O’s fan, I really can’t stand the O’s.

Dave Cameron: Correct. They’ve traded away money that could have been offered to him for non-prospect minor league depth.

Dave Cameron: But again, if he really wanted to go to Baltimore, he probably wouldn’t decide to go elsewhere because of a few million in signing bonus.

Ray: I don’t get why Ohtani would rather be NL than AL. I get that an AL team couldn’t guarantee he take the DH whereas NL could guarantee 1/5 days plus PH, but this is a guy who gave up $200 Million for the competition. You don’t think he expects to be good enough hit every day & will take the chance in AL?

Dave Cameron: Realistically, no one is going to DH their star pitcher the day after he starts regardless, and probably not the day before either. That has to be some rest/prep period to let his body recover. So best case scenario, he’s a 2-3 times per week DH, which means the team has to carry someone else to DH those other games, which creates a roster problem.

Bink: I know the Yankees aren’t entitle to him but a) money, b) New York is a big cosmopolitan city with high visibility, c) they’re a good, young team that’s getting better, needs pitching, and really lacks a DH.  I think their history of signing Japanese players is at least a neutral factor,  and I find it hard to believe that they don’t have at least a 20% chance compared to less than 10% for anyone else.

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers have money, are in a big city, are a good young team that is getting better, and don’t have to contend with the DH problem.

Dave Cameron: You could just replace Yankees with Cubs in your description too.

David: Is there a possibility Ohtani’s deal is the impetus for reworking the CBA regarding international signing bonuses? It seems like a superstar getting screwed financially could cause enough outrage for the Players Association to actually start fighting for international players.

Dave Cameron: They just upped the limit last year, and they knew Ohtani existed then.

Phil: Stanton got 13/$325 at the same age Trout is now… so that doesn’t seem entirely out of the question, though it would be shocking to see a total value that great. I would think maybe 12/$500 would be more satiable to the market, but then again, we haven’t seen a Trout-level player hit FA since the dawn of the info age.

Dave Cameron: Stanton was *four years* from free agency.

Dave Cameron: Actually, sorry, that’s wrong. He was two years from free agency.

Dave Cameron: But still, a pre-FA extension and an open market bidding war aren’t apples to apples comparisons.

Oddball Herrera: Isn’t the proper question: are there enough teams that *could* go to $500 or $600 million for Trout that the teams that can have incentive to go that high?  This was the issue with A-Rod’s opt-out, no one was going to pay him what the Yankees could pay him

Dave Cameron: Every team in baseball could afford to pay Mike Trout $40 million.

Dave Cameron: Every single one.

Babe Lincoln: Realistically, Lucas Duda is a _________th percentile outcome for Hoskins?

Dave Cameron: 20th

Jack: Wouldn’t a team gladly accept the punishment for circumventing the rules to sign Ohtani?   I mean, at the end of the day, you get Ohtani.

Dave Cameron: MLB has to approve the contract.

Oddball Herrera: Make it an even playing field – teams are allowed to offer Otani up to their bonus pool cap, they are not allowed to negotiate directly with him, Otani can choose where he wants to go, and then teams can give him any sort of contract they choose afterwards.  No ambiguity, no shenanigans.

Dave Cameron: How do you police the no-contact order?

Dave Cameron: As soon as he picks someone, the other 29 teams will assume that team contacted him somehow.

Dave Cameron: Lots of ambiguity, lots of shenanigans.

Buck: It’s not that Trout isn’t worth $40M per year that’s troubling, it’s the 15 year term. 10/$400M makes sense, 15/$600M ignores the Albert Pujols’ albatross.

Dave Cameron: Mike Trout isn’t Albert Pujols.

Dave Cameron: The Bryce Harper contract is going to blow your mind.

Dave Cameron: And Trout is significantly better.

yo knows: Don’t the Dodgers have like $300k to offer? Isn’t the question between $300k and $10m a bit heavier than the question between $6m and $10m?

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that it’s all taxed heavily anyway, so in take-home pay, the max offer is really more like $5M in his bank account. There just isn’t enough difference between the bonus offers to make that the deciding factor.

brian: Dave, doesn’t the AL home team choose whether or not they want to use a DH for any particular game, so couldn’t an AL team that signs Ohtani have a decent advantage in home games that he starts by waiving the DH for that game?

Dave Cameron: No, you can’t make the other team not also use a DH.

Big Joe Mufferaw: What was the biggest contract before A-rod? I think the % increase of those 2 contracts should be about what Trout would get. Don’t you think?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/500-million-for-bryce-harper-might-stil…

Gary Sanchez: Would I as a GM be crazy to say I want no part of a 15 year contract for Trout?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dan Warthen: re: Buck.  The point is that he’s theoretically worth 10/$600.  The 5 years added are just a means of deferring money so as to lessen the impact on current luxury tax obligations.  Whatever the guess of his worth is, years are just a matter of deferral.

Dave Cameron: Bingo.

Ray: I think it’s crazy to say that there’s no difference between the available bonus pools. $300k + League minimum is comfortably upper middle class lifestyle. $10M + Minimum is yacht money. I think that would matter, even (especially?) if I was giving up $200M payday in 2 years.

Dave Cameron: Ohtani already has yacht money.

Alby: Could a team just say “screw it” and give him $40 million and pay a $40 million tax?

Dave Cameron: No, the bonus pools are now hard caps.

Dave Cameron: Alright, 90 minutes of non-stop Shohei Otani chat is going to have to be all I can do today.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.

Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next week, and maybe by then, have something else to talk about.

Dave Cameron: Maybe some team will go on a crazy winning/losing streak or something.