Dodgers Outlast Blue Jays in 18 Innings To Win Epic World Series Game 3

An all-time World Series classic was played on October 27, 1991. That was the Game 7 where Jack Morris and John Smoltz matched zeros until the Minnesota Twins ultimately edged the Atlanta Braves 1-0 in 10 innings. Thirteen years later, on that same date in 2004, the Boston Red Sox won their first World Series championship since 1918. In both cases, baseball history was made in memorable fashion.
What took place on October 27, 2025 at Dodger Stadium ranks right up there with the best World Series games ever played. In an affair that lasted deep into the night and featured heroics from multiple players, it was Freddie Freeman who finally ended it. Leading off the bottom of the 18th inning, the Dodgers first baseman launched a home run to straightaway center field to walk off the Blue Jays, 6-5, in Game 3 and give Los Angeles a two-games-to-one lead in the World Series.
The game started uneventfully, with Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow retiring the side in order in the first. But from that point forward the word “uneventful” was nowhere to be found — not for the remainder of a Monday night that turned into the wee hours of Tuesday for most of Canada and the continental United States, for all but the time zone in which Game 3 was played.
Max Scherzer — making his 27th postseason start and 501st overall — was on the mound for Toronto, and Shohei Ohtani began the bottom of the first by lining his second pitch into the right field corner for a double. Three batters later, the inning was over courtesy of two fly outs and a strikeout.
Enter eventful at stage right.
Bo Bichette led off the second by lining a 3-1 sinker up the middle for Toronto’s first hit, after which the Dodgers caught a break. Daulton Varsho took a 3-1 pitch that was clearly above the zone — it was higher than the previous pitch, which had been called a ball — only to have home plate umpire Mark Wegner call it a strike. The call came late, after Varsho had already started for first base. He then paused as if to make sure he’d heard the call, then tossed his bat away and began to unstrap his elbow guard; thinking that Varsho had drawn a walk, Bichette trotted toward second base — not a prudent decision — and was summarily tagged out by Freeman, who’d received a throw from Glasnow during the confusion.
As Blue Jays manager John Schneider later told dugout reporter Ken Rosenthal during an in-game interview, “It was a weird play.”
It was far from the last weird play.
Varsho ultimately drew ball four from Glasnow, then advanced to third on a single by Alejandro Kirk. The threat came for naught. Addison Barger fanned, and Ernie Clement lined out to center. Inning over.
Teoscar Hernández homered in the bottom of the frame, his 109-mph, 412-foot blast clearing the fence in left-center. Impressive as the blast was, it had nothing on the bat flip that accompanied it. The former Blue Jay clearly enjoyed putting his old team in arrears, 1-0.
An effortless third inning by Glasnow — 11 pitches, three easy outs — was followed by another Dodgers solo shot in the bottom half. This time it was Ohtani doing the honors, pulling a Scherzer four-seamer 389 feet into the right field seats. The score was now 2-0 and the game’s best player had six total bases in his first two trips to the plate. He was far from done.
A hot Ohtani is lethal for opponents, and for the most part that hasn’t been the case in October. Coming into the game he was just 11-for-49 with six home runs and 19 strikeouts in the postseason, and if you don’t count his epic performance in NLCS Game 4, he was just 8-for-46 with three home runs. Outside of a few big swings, he’d been surprisingly quiet.
The Blue Jays had a loud fourth inning, but it wasn’t all Glasnow’s fault. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. walked on a 3-2 pitch — barely checking his swing — after which Bichette hit what should have been a double-play ball. Instead, Dodgers second baseman Tommy Edman had the routine grounder go under his glove, putting runners on the corners. They remained there when Varsho popped to short left… but not for long. Kirk crunched a first-pitch Glasnow curveball 394 feet, and all of a sudden it was 3-2 Toronto.
Barger, who’d thrown out Freeman at the plate from right field to end the previous inning, followed Kirk’s homer with a single, and Clement did the same. Andrés Giménez proceeded to bring home Barger with a sac fly, and now it was 4-2. When Glasnow finally fanned George Springer for the third out, it was on the right-hander’s 29th pitch of the inning. Were it not for Edman’s error, it most likely would have been 11 pitches. More importantly, no runs would have crossed the plate.
It wouldn’t be reasonable to say that manager Dave Roberts left his starter in the game too long. Not only is the Dodgers bullpen… well, Dodgers bullpen, but Glasnow was mostly strong throughout. When he was lifted with two out in the fifth inning, he’d thrown 85 pitches, eliciting 10 whiffs and 11 called strikes, having allowed no meaningful damage outside of the ill-fated fourth.
Scherzer was also pulled in the fifth inning, and he too had pitched well. Walking off the mound for what could be the final time in his career, the future Hall of Famer had just gone 4 1/3 innings and allowed just a pair of runs — those coming on the Hernández and Ohtani homers. He’d thrown 79 pitches — 47 of them fastballs — generating 13 whiffs and seven called strikes. Much like his mound opponent, Scherzer pitched better than his final line suggested.
Enrique Hernández, who came into the game with just an .558 OPS over 70 World Series plate appearances despite his overall postseason success, led off the inning with a single, after which Scherzer induced a fly out on what turned out to be be his last pitch. The Blue Jays bullpen didn’t hold the lead it inherited. With Scherzer watching from the bench, Mason Fluharty allowed a run-scoring double to Ohtani — now 3-for-3 with eight total bases on the evening. Two batters later, Freeman drove Ohtani home to knot the contest at four apiece.
When Fluharty came in to face Ohtani, it wasn’t solely because it made for a left-on-left matchup. Not only is Scherzer long in the tooth — at age 41 he’s one of the oldest pitchers ever to start a World Series game — but also his third-time-through-the-order numbers this year represented a red flag. While his career .230/.298/.388 mark when facing an opposing lineup for a third time in a game is nearly identical to his second-time-through numbers, this season that line was .302/.343/.730. Moreover, it came with eight home runs in 67 plate appearances. Manager John Schneider made the right move… at least on paper.
Leading off the seventh, Springer swung at the first pitch he saw from lefty reliever Justin Wrobleski, fouled it off, and immediately grabbed his right side near his oblique. He signaled to the Blue Jays bench and started walking off the field. Schneider said after the game that Springer went for an MRI and that the team was awaiting the results. Ty France replaced him and struck out. After Nathan Lukes flied out to left, the Dodgers brought in Blake Treinen, and for the second time in the game, a player who ended the previous inning with great defensive play scored a big run. Guerrero, who threw out Teoscar Hernández at third base to close out the sixth, singled to center off Treinen, then proceeded to score from first base on a two-out single to right field by Bichette in the seventh. At 5-4, the lead once against belonged to Canada’s team.
Two batters after “Take Me Out To The Ballgame” was sung, it was Ohtani time once again. With Seranthony Domínguez now toeing the rubber for Toronto, the Oshu, Japan native launched his second home run of the night, making him 4-for-4 with 12 total bases on the evening. The score now stood 5-5. Dodger Stadium was rocking.
To say that Ohtani has been rocking Dodger Stadium of late would be an understatement. With the superstar’s epic performance in the NLCS clincher also having come at home, Ohtani was 7-for-7 with two doubles, five home runs, and a walk in his last two games in Chavez Ravine.
On October 27, 2007, Daisuke Matsuzaka became the first Japanese starting pitcher in World Series history when he took the mound for the Red Sox against the Rockies in Colorado. Six years later, the first World Series game to end on a pickoff occurred when Boston closer Koji Uehara nabbed St. Louis’ Kolten Wong. Game 3 on Monday night began with Hideo Nomo, the first Japanese-born superstar in the United States, throwing out the ceremonial first pitch. Japanese representation in Major League Baseball has come a long way since Nomo, Matsuzaka, and Uehara achieved their respective firsts, and no team in the Western Hemisphere features more Japanese players than the Dodgers. In addition to the two-way sensation Ohtani, the Los Angeles rotation also includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who pitched his second consecutive complete game in Game 2 on Saturday night and who was warming up in the bullpen on just one day of rest in the 18th inning of Game 3. And then there’s the rookie right-hander Roki Sasaki, who signed as a starter with the Dodgers during the winter, struggled and missed more than four months with a shoulder injury, and then returned in time to become their closer in the postseason. With the game on the line Monday night, he made an impactful relief appearance in the eighth.
Replacing lefty Jack Dreyer after Barger had reached on a Mookie Betts error and Giménez had singled with one out, Sasaki retired France and Lukes to strand two runners in scoring position. An inning later, Sasaki put two runners on base himself with walks, but he stranded them as well. Going into the bottom of the ninth, it was a tie game… with Ohtani due up second.
Schneider wasn’t about to let Ohtani be the hero. With one out, the Toronto manager had closer Jeff Hoffman walk Ohtani intentionally with the bases empty. (Could even the most strident opponents of intentional walks argue against his doing so?) Attempting to steal second, Ohtani was then called out when he lost contact with the bag, a play unsuccessfully challenged by the Dodgers. One out later, and it was on to extra innings.
Edman redeemed himself in the top of the 10th. Making up for his earlier error, the second baseman retrieved a two-out Lukes base hit in short right field and threw out pinch-runner Davis Schneider at the plate, trying to score from first. The Blue Jays challenged, claiming that Will Smith had blocked the plate, but the call stood.
For the third time in the game, a player making a key inning-ending throw had a chance to come up big when his team next came to the plate. It didn’t happen. Edman popped up for the final out with the winning run on second base, sending the game to the 11th… an inning in which Ohtani was issued another intentional walk, this time with two out and the bases empty. When Betts — named the winner of this year’s Roberto Clemente Award earlier in the day (or was it the day before?) — followed with a hit, the Dodgers once again had the deciding run in scoring position. Freeman, who has worn the hero’s cape on many occasions, most notably with his walk-off grand slam in Game 1 of last year’s World Series, stepped in to face rookie right-hander Braydon Fisher and proceeded to fly out innocently to left.
The 12th inning was a cherry on top of a game that will long be remembered. After Kirk led off with a walk, John Schneider opted to use the final man on his bench, backup catcher Tyler Heineman and his 24th-percentile sprint speed to pinch-run for Kirk and his second-percentile sprint speed. Myles Straw failed to get down the sacrifice bunt, and then a Clement groundout advanced Heineman to second. So with two out and first base open, the Dodgers opted to walk Giménez — Toronto’s nine-hole hitter — to bring up Davis Schneider. Then things got even crazier. Schneider dribbled a ball toward third, with Heineman reaching the bag just before the ball rolled into the glove of third baseman Max Muncy, who was stretching for it with his right foot on the base.
As if things couldn’t get more dramatic, the Schneider single sent Roberts to the mound to relieve Emmet Sheehan; the bullpen gate swung open and out came Clayton Kershaw to pitch for perhaps the last time in his legendary career, carrying with him the burden of greatness and his well-documented history of postseason failures. Bases loaded, two outs, tie game. On his eighth pitch, Kershaw got Lukes to chase a 3-2 breaking ball to end the inning. It was pure theater.
Ohtani was walked intentionally again in the 13th inning. Per the great Sarah Langs, Ohtani thus became the first player in major league postseason history to reach base seven times in a game. Yet another intentional walk was to follow in his next plate appearance. Remarkably, by the time the game was over, Ohtani had been issued four intentional walks and had reached base nine times, with two doubles, two home runs, and five total bases on balls. As Langs noted, Ohtani is the fourth player ever to reach nine times in a game.
Through 14 innings, a total of 17 pitchers had combined to throw 483 pitches. When Will Klein took the mound for the top of the 15th inning, he was the 10th pitcher to do so for the Dodgers. Yes, that is also World Series record. Toronto’s eighth pitcher of the game, Eric Lauer, threw 4 2/3 innings — along with the Glasnow, the most of anyone who saw action. They were all scoreless, as were the ones that Klein provided Los Angeles.
When the 18th inning rolled around, 19 pitchers had combined to throw 579 pitches. Klein was still on the mound, and Yamamoto was warming up in the bullpen two nights after throwing 105 pitches in Game 2. It was now approaching midnight in Los Angeles. The Dodgers and Blue Jays had played for six-and-half hours and were six outs shy of having gone the equivalent of two full games.
Yamamoto wasn’t needed. Klein, who had never thrown more than two innings or 34 pitches in a big league game, dug deep and fanned Heineman to strand two runners in scoring position to survive the 18th. He finished with four scoreless innings and 72 pitches.
When Freeman blasted the 3-2 sinker from Brendon Little over the center field fence in the bottom half of the frame, the second-longest game in Fall Classic history had culminated in a 6-5 Dodgers win. (Game 3 of the 2018 World Series also went 18 innings, but it lasted seven hours and 20 minutes.) Klein was the pitcher of record, and it wasn’t simply the biggest win of his young career. Having been a co-hero in an all-time classic, he will likely never win a bigger one.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
I’m always leery if recency bias…but that is very possibly the best WS game I’ve ever seen. Truly bonkers!
No. Long games aren’t always good games. They are often filled with sloppy play, poor managing, and poor umpiring. This game had all three.
while i respect the opinion, this game also showcased lots of the best things baseball has to offer. ohtani, vlad, bang-bang plays, humans being human and making errors (as we all do), gutsy pitching, shrewd managing (up until the inning count got whack), a walk off hr, etc… this game was absolutely enthralling. 10/10
I agree with all of this – there were mistakes, there was inanity, there was incredible plays. People hold up 2011 WS Game 6 (rightfully so) and that too had a lot of “bad baseball” in the micro.
That all said, there’s two issues I have with last night that would put it behind the aforementioned Game 6, or Game 5 of 2017 (putting to the side the cheating) in my recent “Top WS Games”.
First – at some point length does become a detractor – I wonder if this just ends in 13 innings or something, I actually may think of it even more fondly, but that is largely influenced by….
Second – the Jays lineup for the last say 5-6 innings was just not competitive in a World Series environment. The ending felt a bit preordained unless a Jay just randomly ran into one. But it was not really a fair fight at that point.
Still, there’s 5-6 things and moments from this game I’ll think about for a long, long time.
It also had absurdly great plays by both defenses, heroic turns from (previously) very minor characters, the greatest player of all time getting on base nine times, and Frederick Charles Freeman doing Frederick Charles Freeman stuff. If you can’t appreciate that you can’t appreciate baseball.
You’re all gonna hate this…sorry.
It also featured multiple runners being thrown out (by a lot) at third and home.
It also featured some strange managerial decisions in the front 9 that led to the Blue Jays trotting out a AAAA line up in the back 9.
Other than that, it was entertaining-albeit flawed affair. A classic? I’ll let time be our guide to that one. It surely kept me entertained.
I think it was a good game, but dang the Jays really did end up with a not-ideal lineup in the second half of the game. Springer obviously was nobody’s fault, but pulling Kirk turned out to hurt.
I thought that at first but if Kirk had caught the whole game he would be pretty run down to come back out there and catch again today. I’m guessing he’s back behind the plate for Bieber.
Barger was the worse one to lose.
Classic games are marked by memorable moments. The teams trading off throwing out runners at third and home were very memorable. I can’t see why that would be a strike against it being a classic game.
That’s why I prefaced my comments with…
“You’re gonna hate this.”
I saw two team gallantly throwing themselves at bases and teams throwing those runners out with amazing plays. That could rank it high in quality.
At the same time, I stand by my comment that one manager clearly didn’t know the rules were not going to change in the 10th inning and had a less than ideal line up for 7+ innings.
There were memorable moments for sure, but I need time before history can anoint it.
You do not manage as if you’re going to play an eighteen inning game. Late, tied in the World Series, I’m not against making substitutions and playing to score on the current at bat. Don’t plan ahead, win now. Hindsight is 20:20, but I think the process was sound and resulted in an exciting game.
The gambit of daring the opponent to make a great throw or two from the outfield or daring Vladdy/Snell to throw to third for a tag on the back end of a busted play? That doesn’t add for you? Watching both teams come up with huge defensive plays in response to full throttle aggressive decisions has made this whole playoffs incredible.
Schneider’s aggressive calls hamstrung his lineup later in the game, but he was playing to win. I liked those moves the same way I liked Roberts setting up for the win by subbing in Rojas and Call.
I wasn’t able to last the entire game but I am forced to agree that the umpiring continues to be a drag on the game. Again last night, an awful call on ball four to Varsho in which every person watching, except Mark Wegner, could see was well above the zone was, very belatedly, called a strike and dramatically changed the situation. Unfortunately only two challenges per team next year isn’t going to be enough to really help rectify the shaky ball and strike calls that have altered the flow and, possibly, the outcomes of several crucial games this year.
There’s this weird effect that because umpiring (especially BB/K calls) is as good as it ever has been, that the egregiously bad calls feel worse, at least in my opinion.
It really wasn’t that belated. On the TV broadcast, the call was loud and audible within one second and the hand signal came two seconds later. Which is well within the range of how that ump was calling strikes for most of the night. That kind of call happens all the time, the only thing unique about that play was the HUGE baserunning mistake made by Bichette.
Still a bad call for sure, but the strike call isn’t what dramatically changed the game situation.
There is going to be doldrums over the course of 18. This game almost literally had it all, it was an epic. It became a must win after a certain point bc of all the arms they were burning through. Most bonkers game I’ve ever seen.
David pulling the all nighter
I understand you should never manage under the expectation that your team will get shut out by the Dodger bullpen for 11 consecutive innings, but pulling Varsho and Bichette for defense only to see their replacements get just as many plate appearances as the guys they replaced is a really good way to help create the possibility of getting shut out by the Dodger bullpen for 11 consecutive innings.
This is somehow the fifth game in playoff history to last exactly 18 innings. We’ve never had one go past 18 or last exactly 17, and there’s only been one game to last exactly 15. What the hell are the chances of that?
Think you mean Kirk not Varsho. And I think Kirk was pulled for baserunning.
Still a poor choice. Obviously hindsight and all but what Jays fan wouldn’t trade that pinch runner for another 4-5 swings from Kirk?
I meant Barger, actually
Yeah, it was an incredibly poor strategy and definitely leaned more into the narrative (Dodgers can always be beaten through their bullpen) than the reality (the Dodgers had a below average bullpen the whole season but the addition of October baseball options like Sasaki mitigated this risk somewhat; in any case they at no point this year have been a historically bad pen; also, bullpens are temperamental and can sometimes go on hot streaks. See last year’s Dodgers.)
When you’re throwing your worst hitters at so many guys who can throw 100 mph, shit is gonna happen and you might not enjoy it.
This ultimately decided the game-imho. Once it was Ty France and then Schneider…then IKF. Then Heineman.
In the context of the game, the moves were understandable, but it was almost as if John Schieder was managing a game that resulted in the Manfred Man in extra innings.
Manfred Mann was the only remaining bat available off the bench, and he is 84. Which is roughly twice the wRC+ of the other Blue Jay bench bats, but I digress.
& if he had come up to bat, he would have been “Blinded By The Light” & struck out swinging.
I hate how they’re making Glasnow pitch to the hitters’ weakness instead of establishing his high fastball. He can go 7-8 innings if he throws to his strengths.
Roberts actually planned to remove him in the 5th to avoid him pitching to Daulton Varsho. Granted he’s better than Gary Varsho but he’s not someone you build a game plan around
I didn’t get that impression. He had the fastball up going pretty good, but they were fouling off many of them too. I thought pulling him in that spot was fine. The Edman error really hurt, but it also followed a leadoff walk. Glasnow did his job and kept us in the game. If things break his way maybe he goes 6 or 7.
His high FB was good as it usually is. Establishing it early in the count like he usually does makes the foul balls strikes
In general an all star pitcher with his repertoire should pitch to his strengths
Barger is quick and he’s a good glove and he’s a hot hitter. Seeing him pulled for a pinch runner bummed me out, and really bummed me out after four more cycles through the lineup. Springer and Bo, there was no choice. Heinemann running for Kirk made sense. But man, Jays could have used Barger in the game’s second half.
I agree with you guys about the defensive subs but please don’t forget how many plate appearances Miguel Rojas took and the situations he took them in.
Both teams made regrettable substitutions and honestly this just about always happens in games of this length.
Miguel Rojas OPS+’d 100 this year and 111 last year. He’s a perfectly acceptable, if not exciting, option and has had his share of big moments. And one of his three PAs was productive.
Would you rather have October Kike up there? Of course. But it’s not indefensible to sub out a guy who’s had injury trouble recently in the 13th inning of a game.
Remember when Ohtani was slumping in the playoffs, and yet opposing managers kept intentionally walking him?
If you take away game 1 against the Reds, game 4 against the Brewers, and game 3 against the Blue Jays, Ohtani has batted .146/.271/.268 (and his OBP drops to .205 if you take away the 4 intentional walks) with 1 triple and 1 HR. In those 3 games though, he did manage a .750/.833/2.667 line.
I think that just IBBing Ohtani all the time as policy is clearly a bad idea, but he seems to have games where he is some other species, and tonight looked like one of those so I cant say I blame the Jays for preferring Betts/Freeman with 1 on to the chance of an Ohtani solo home run ending the game.
As a fan of the Dodgers, I felt worse about that scenario than him getting a plate appearance, especially since the pitchers were frequently RH.
And of course one of those times Ohtani ran into an out which was honestly the biggest blemish on his evening, that stolen base attempt was a terrible idea.
I actually like the SB and he would have been safe, even with the great throw from Kirk, if he had not gone off the bag. I agree with you that (total non analytical comment incoming) that there seems to be some games where he has strong juju, and if you feel that it is one of those games, I don’t blame a manager for IBB even when the math says don’t do it. He’s that special.
I think that a lot of people see the tied-game, man on 1st, 2 out SB as just as worthwhile as the Dave Roberts steal (down 1 in the same situation). But it isn’t, especially here.
Here’s the situations you are better off on 2nd base than 1st:
Mookie Betts hits exactly a single
Mookie Betts reaches on a throwing error that goes out of play, and being on 2nd means you’re awarded home.
Then you have the situations where successfully stealing gets you the same outcome anyway with the risk of being thrown out: Betts walk, Betts IBB.
Then you have the remaining:
Any XBH – Ohtani is a gazelle, he scores from 1st when he’s running on contact from 1st (which he isn’t doing at 2nd). Any out the result is the same.
Except in the situations where Betts makes an out, you’re better off in the following ways, which are not ranked my magnitude:
You’re spending more pitches in a tied game where the bullpens are potentially getting taxed.
You are advancing the lineup so that you, Shohei Ohtani, hit sooner than you would otherwise.
And lastly, and this may be too meta, I think that the Dodgers would rather have offered the Blue Jays the somewhat attractive “LRRL” upcoming slate of hitters to invite the Blue Jays to actually use a left handed reliever (for Freeman, Smith, Hernandez, Muncy). The RLRRL situation with Betts first does not invite the LHP into the game; this lets the Jays save it to try to hit the LRL Ohtani/Betts/Freeman later, and provides a ‘second best’ opportunity for the Blue Jays to use a LHP where they have to face Teoscar and Will Smith.
This is to say nothing of the injury risk, which remains a very relevant factor (remember, Ohtani hurt himself in the last WS on such a play and never looked quite right the rest of the way; he pitches tomorrow!). He may be the only player whose health is more important to the series outcome than an extra 1% chance to win game 3.
So, yeah, I didn’t like it. But I wasn’t surprised – he’s done it before, and I think Dave is a little more likely than most managers to call exactly that steal because the scenario looms large in his lifetime.
I I get psychologically why you’d want to avoid Ohtani, as he can just turn it on, and Betts and Freeman, while still very very good players, haven’t had the best seasons by their incredibly lofty standards. And yeah, putting extra baserunners on is rarely a good idea.
I hadn’t meant my original comment to be a criticism of Ohtani – I just found it fascinating (and obviously a lot of it is it is still just 13 games, a very very small sample) that Ohtani hasn’t hit well in most games, and yet is rocking a 200wRC+ in the playoffs. I’m not sure how you’d measure this, but it has to be one of the most extreme postseason performance – from getting a golden sombrero in game one against the Phillies, to having 9 plate appearances against the Blue Jays in game three without making an out at the plate once.
i was wondering if he’d been nursing an injury against philly. i don’t know what i think now, other than he’s simply not of this earth
The Phillies have better pitching than the other teams the Dodgers played and specifically really good left handed pitching. I don’t think there’s much mystery about what was going on.
With Ohtani i think its as simple as A; sometimes he has games where he looks like he’s playing a video game on easy and B: he’s more likely than basically anyone besides perhaps Aaron Judge to end a tie game instantly with a solo HR. If he seems to be feeling it, I understand seeing an Betts/Freeman double/triple as less likely than an Ohtani HR.
Especially when you are keeping platoon advantage vs Betts and not Ohtani.
OK and what is your point? History shows us that letting Ohtani find his way out of slumps is an extremely poor strategy.
And he’s 9-15 his last four games with six homers. He’s as hot as the core of a dying sun. Walk him. Don’t even think about it. Just walk him. When he cools down, re-evaluate.
If you take away the games in which he was good, then he was bad. Scintillating analysis here.
I phrased my original comment really badly – I didn’t mean to come across troll like and “oh, yeah, if you get rid of the games where Ohtani setting multiple play off records, he actually sucks”, it was an attempt to express amazement at how incredible these games are. In 10 games out of 13, he’s got an OPS of .539. In all 13 games, he’s got an OPS of 1.235. (Again, I know it is all very small samples) But that doesn’t seem normal.
I do wonder how the distribution of wRC+ is on a per-game basis. I would expect the median game wRC+ of a great hitter to be lower than their mean – as the lowest it can be is -100, and Ohtani managed over 800 yesterday, so the distribution would be skewed.
For the top 10 hitters by wRC+, 400PA minimum, their wRC+ and median wRC+ are:
Judge 204 194
Ohtani 172 179
Kurtz 170 120
Springer 166 153
Raleigh 161 162
Acuna 161 155
Soto 156 158
Smith 153 152
Schwarber 152 152
Stowers 149 121
Which… yeah, doesn’t suggest what I thought (and assuming I’ve done my maths correctly!). Although the lowest wRC+ is ‘only’ -100, it is much easier to get to that (no hits, no walks, etc), than it is to have a wRC+ of 600, 700, and so on.
While doing this, I did notice there was a bit of a weird quirk – it is very hard to have a single game as a hitter with a wRC+ between 130 and 149 – out of the top ten hitters (and well over 1000 games), they did it 3 times. Smith, Raleigh, and Soto each managed it once each, and all in the low 130s.
Given that, at its core, wRC+ is functionally a linear weights system, I’m not surprised that it would have gaps when looking at the context of 4-6 PAs at a time. There’s only so many combinations of outcomes in that few PAs.
Yeah, I did think that – but some of the 130wRC+ games seemed like they should be more common – like going 2 for 5 with no walks, and the two hits both being singles. I just found it funny because a 130 – 149 wRC+ is a common “really good hitter” line, but very hard to get in an individual game. To pick a batter, Freddie Freeman had a 139wRC+ this year, but no games with a wRC+ between 129wRC+ and 156wRC+. (Though, park effects might have something to with it, as one of Freddie’s 128wRC+ games is a 2 for 5, no walks, both singles, games)
Or do it the other way for context.. Take away the Phillies series from his postseason and wowza..
.368, (14-38 AB), .674 OBP, 1.053 SLG, 1.727 OPS, with 8 HR and 15 BB to 12 Ks..
“If you take away this guy’s awesome games, man his line sure looks bad!”
Well…yeah?
Yup. But it is how extreme Ohtani’s postseason hitting has been that I was trying (badly, as it turns out) to comment on. In 10 games, he’s looked like he should be hitting 7th for the Mariners (JP Crawford had a postseason OPS of .561). His overall line for 13 games is Judgian.
So if you take away over a fifth – just over 21.4% – of his postseason games, his best game from three different series?
That’s some next level cherry picking, Phillip. If you take away the best 21% of games from anyone across a 14 game sample, you’re going to get some pretty wonky results. The reality is he did have those games, and he has a 196 wRC+ in the 2025 postseason, following three full years of 180/180/172. With a .500 ISO.
It’s not weird that he was receiving intentional walks, especially with Betts and his 94 playoff wRC+, following his 104 regular season wRC+ and .100 ISO from his sickness-induced power outage. Go look at Ohtani’s numbers again. I don’t think you’re making the point you think you’re making.
The Jays are in trouble if Springer is hurt — and leaving mid-PA grabbing your side is…not a great sign.
The play at the plate in the 10th was correctly called, IMO. Smith’s foot may have crossed the plate a hair early, but by the time he got the throw, Schneider wasn’t even in frame on the home plate shot (you can see his left hand a beat later). It’s also funny how he slapped the tag down on nothing, then had to wait for Schneider to get there.
Think Muncy should have come off the base and charged that ball in the 12th. I don’t know if he is able to turn and tag the bag/runner, but I think he’s got a better play if he comes in and gets it.
I’ve given John Schneider a lot of crap for his IBBs of Judge, but as David said, I don’t know that I can blame him for just giving up on trying to get him out. If they were in Toronto, I don’t think you give him all those IBB, but when he can walk it off, it makes sense.
When I initially fell asleep, it was in the 10th. When I woke up at 1:30 am Central, I was pretty shocked when I decided to see who won and found out that the answer was “no one, yet”.
Why would you not count that?
If I was supreme emperor of baseball, I would require that if anyone ever commented/wrote “if you exclude X, then…” (X being really good or bad) you would have to present the data also excluding Y (Y being the inverse of X). So if you exclude a players best game/week/month then you have to also exclude the players worst game/week/month.
funny how that works!
I understand people have the urge when there is a historic single game performance in a small series sample that can make a bad line look good to be like ‘Look his line without the bonkers game was actually good too’.
I’d vote for your for supreme emporer..
It wasn’t just excluding a big game, it was over 21% of his games. When he said, it was over 23% of his games.
I just kinda did what you mentioned above.. Take away the Phillies series, including last night, which drags this line down, and you get:
.368, (14-38 AB), .674 OBP, 1.053 SLG, 1.727 OPS, with 8 HR and 15 BB to 12 Ks..
Literal video game with a cheat code numbers over 10 games. Take away last nights game, and he’s hitting .400… The inverse is very kind to Ohtani..
Historic. Ohtani continues to mesmerize, and Freddie October won the marathon, which felt like it was bound to happen since he does astonishing HOF-ish things like that
I started watching the game during the Kirk at-bat that resulted in a momentum-swinging 3-run dinger, thinking gee, these Bluejays might win this thing but had a feeling LA would respond emphatically with some fireworks of their own. However, I had no inkling as to how long (and how nail-bitingly seat-edged) a night I was in for.
Wow. What a game. What a game. What a glorious game this is
I was proud of both teams. I just don’t know what else to say. This is what baseball is supposed to be.
This is the kind of thing that saves baseball, not ruins it. Two very serious teams doing very serious baseball stuff and nobody blinks.
“Both teams” – by the end it was
Dodgers: last arm left + an all-world lineup vs.
Blue Jays: last arm left + Vlad and some guys who were working at the Altoona Chili’s a week ago
Manager John Schneider made the right move… at least on paper.
Heh.
Obviously a horrible call against Varsho but I don’t get why everyone is saying it was a “late” call, or a confusing play. It looked like every other called strike from this umpire, Bichette has to be smarter than that.
I agree, the call was not delayed its just that Varsho thought it was so obvious he was already moving to the bag and that’s also a good way to get the strike called :p
I agree and don’t get why the players weren’t blamed more for that. There was clearly a strike call and a strike sign made shortly after the pitch was caught at the same cadence as every other strike he had called. And then Smoltz just blabbing that there was nothing as you could literally both hear and see it on the broadcast. Classic
I don’t think it’s an exaggeration at all to say this game took literal years off my life, holy moly.
No Vesia, Scott, Yates, Phillips, Kopech… no problem? 12.1 shutout innings from rookie relievers must be a record of some sort if Sheehan still qualifies as a rookie. Randomness never sleeps
I fell asleep 3 times before it ended, and somehow was content with that
There are numerous drawbacks to being 83 and not lasting past the 11th inning last night just jumped up near the top of the list. It has been like forever since I didn’t see the last out of a WS game. I made it to 3:36AM during Game 3 in 2018 but I passed out and missed the conclusion of a game that, as dedicated a fan as I am, should be able to enjoy to the finish.
Freddie hit like 700+ combined feet of fly balls his previous two at bats before walking it off he’s just incredible. Edman had a fugly error but the two plays he made later in the game were ridiculous.
There were so many odd moves by the managers including Roberts intentionally walking Gimenez ahead of Davis Schneider but thanks to Kershaw and Edman the Jays didn’t take the lead. The send by the third base coach was ridiculous I saw some claiming Vlad was gonna hit if he holds him but let’s be real they would have walked him with IKF up next, who knows what would have happened in his at bat but we should have found out. That was a great game kudos to Will Klein and Lauer especially who were both on fumes but Lauer was a starter much of the year so Klein’s work stood out more.
I’m so glad I was able to stay up and I was hoping the game would go on for twenty innings.
The parallels between Freddie in this game and Muncy 7 years ago are pretty strong – Muncy also almost ended that game a couple times before he actually ended it, though in 2018 he also looked like literally the only guy on either team who was making good contact in the last 6 innings or so, whereas this game had some other near-misses.
Can someone who follows the Dodgers explain the Kershaw situation to me? I thought he had a great season. Was his performance in that one game against the Phillies really so bad that you don’t even consider letting him go multiple innings in long relief in an extra inning game?
I’m sure if Dave Roberts knew that this game would go 18 innings then he would’ve sent Kershaw back out there, but my guess is he wanted to avoid another 2019 NLDS (or any number of other times in which a heroic performance from Kershaw was ruined by him being left in for an inning too long).
If I had to guess, the general idea is just that Kersh is operating with such limited velocity (hence Freddie’s post-game interview joke about seeing his slider at 89 and the fact that a 92mph fastball he threw was his fasted pitch since July of 2024) that in order for him to be effective he has to be hitting his spots, and if he’s off even a little bit, he kinda gets turned into a BP machine. Often times this season, his first inning would be very ugly until he could find his groove, and that’s not exactly something you can do if you’re coming out of the bullpen.
Henriquez or Klein can get away with mistakes at 98-102mph, Kersh doesn’t have the luxury at 90.
Was that not the case in the regular season? Or is it just that you really only want him starting? I think the thing that’s throwing me is that the talk going into the postseason is the dodgers had so many good starting pitching options that they didn’t have space for Kershaw. I didn’t hear a lot of talk about Kershaw actually being someone you wouldn’t trust to start a postseason game. Seems like an ideal situation if you’re in a tie game in extra innings.
Obviously, it’s hard to argue with the outcome for the Dodgers, but it’s just surprised me. By the numbers Kershaw had a better season than Sherzer for example.
I guess to argue with myself a bit (always a good idea), Kershaw didn’t actually look that strong in his 1/3 inning of work. Could be the best plan with him is to see what you get on any given night.
I think this is the right analysis. I was totally baffled by both ends of the decision — bringing him in with the bases loaded and pulling him after just one out — but I think the latter half at least is best explained by how he didn’t look great (and possibly by talking to him afterward). He was also up in the bullpen for such a long, uncertain time beforehand that I think he may have been a little fatigued by the time he even got into the game. That can’t be a familiar experience for him.
I wonder if they are thinking he might come out of the pen tonight. They emptied their pen and their SP tonight just played 18 inning lol. If anything they lucky they were fully rested last night. That said at that point in the game I’m surprised they didn’t have him pitch the next inning.
I think the plan was just to get anything at all out of the guy who is actually sort of the mop up/game is already over guy by getting one out in the absolute best possible scenario for him, and he still barely did it so why ask for more
It definitely was the case during the regular season, you’re not wrong. I’ve been a bit curious to see what the plan was for him in the postseason, and it hasn’t played out at all how I thought it might to be frank.
During the season, he was (or at least it felt like he was) walking on a tightrope during a lot of starts. Occasionally he’d be dealing and it was classic vet Kershaw, sliders tight and down and in, command great, easy innings. But most of the time it felt like any single mistake he made was punished, traffic made him need to go to the strikezone more, and then more mistakes got punished. It’s a nibble and hope strategy, now that his swing and miss stuff is mostly entirely gone.
I think Clayton is basically on the roster as a last-ditch LHP releiver because everyone including him thinks he’s kind of toast and that Dave was thinking this was a way to maximize his value by just getting one highly favorable out
Also it was deeply tense for everyone, find the video of Ellen Kershaw when he got the out, she legitimately looks more emotional than she did when he threw his no hitter.
The most surprising thing about Kershaw’s roster spot is just that he didn’t pitch in game 1 after Emmet Sheehan because honestly that seems to be what he’s on the roster for.
I also found that puzzling, I figured that’s exactly why he was on the roster. Which got me then thinking “ok maybe they have an actual plan for him and don’t want the Jays to see him?” but that doesn’t seem likely either.
My actual, gut feeling now is they wanted him to get a little work in a low pressure situation so that he could pitch in a last WS win before his career ended. The ‘low pressure’ part didn’t come to fruition last night, but they did get that out of him. And, they arguably won’t need that last roster spot for anything important anyway, barring another 18th inning adventure.
This is where I’m confused again though. Did he become toast between September and now? His stats for 2025 look pretty good. I didn’t watch the Dodgers much during the regular season, so there could be some “eye test” stuff that I’m missing. He definitely looked bad against the Phillies and kind of bad last night though.
The last couple years Kershaw’s velocity has been down so much relative to the increasing velo in the league that he is extremely dependent on his (usually fantastic) command. If he’s even a little bit off in location, he gets shelled. If he’s sharp, he’s a servicable 3rd starter type without too much endurance.
I dont think that is a great matchup into the Blue Jays and neither do the Dodgers and I dont think he does either – you can see him even when he announced his retirement and in his final start of the regular season very clearly understanding he’s not in a playoff rotation here and not expected to have his stuff play up in the bullpen, either. So what job does he have?
Ok, that makes sense. Thanks.
I watched the 18-inning, 1-0 Seattle/Houston game in 2022. It was a dreary affair. It wasn’t just that no one was getting on base. It felt completely lifeless. Baseball itself seemed futile. Obviously I might have marvelled at the pitching performances. But I just couldn’t. What a completely different experience last night’s game was. The best part for me was watching guys like Klein and former KBOer Lauer make it happen–Lauer against a 1-2-3 of HOFers.
I was at that game with my older son and a friend. Being Mariners fans (my friend and me since the beginning in 1977), it was the first playoff game that we’d ever attended. Our seats were right next to the left field foul pole. The spectacle of it was immense. I was happy to be there. We stayed for all 6 hours and 22 minutes of it.
But you are right that the game was completely lifeless for long stretches. We had a pair of Astros fans sitting next to us, and around the 14th inning, I said to them that someone would hit a HR and the game would end 1-0.
It did. And that really sucked.
As a Jays fan, I would have liked a different outcome, but man, that’s the greatest game I’ve ever watched. I’ll also add to all the deserved props and callouts in the article by throwing some love to Will Smith, catching all 18 innings. The man’s a machine.
Classy and insightful comment. Thanks for posting.
There was some Verducci reporting around inning 16/17 (news I heard via the Canada broadcasters) that Roberts intended to send a position player to pitch if the game went to inning 18. The broadcasters were flabbergasted that Roberts would have the supreme confidence to just bail on Game 3, as if he could easily afford to. I’d think it would be a firing offense. Instead, we saw Yamamoto warming up. Any insights on this news-let? Could it possibly have been real? Might Roberts have been joking with Verducci? Maybe he intended to send a confusing message to the other dugout? Did Verducci misinterpret something he overheard? Did the Canada broadcasters get the Verducci reporting wrong?
My guess would be a combo of a joke and keeping the cards close to the vest and also acknowledging that that moment was still coming: Even if Yamamoto does pitch, he’s almost certainly not pitching more than an inning. So the situation existed for both teams at that point – start to take real risks with your starters, or use the position player.
So the situation existed for both teams at that point – start to take real risks with your starters
As we saw in the Tigers-Mariners series, taking those risks in Game 5 had a significant impact on the ALCS that lasted the entire series. IOW, it’s not a move to take lightly.
I have to laugh at “(Could even the most strident opponents of intentional walks argue against his doing so?)”…
…Followed later on this site by Ben Clemens arriving at “Conclusion: Intentionally walking Ohtani with one out is a bad plan, even if he gets caught stealing later in the inning.”
I would love to see stats as to how many balls outside of the zone the Jays swung at in that game. It seemed like a lot.
Most infuriatingly, Lukes batting in the 12th inning with the bases loaded, full count, swung at ball four at least twice, including the last pitch that he feebly grounded out to second. THEY’RE TRYING TO GIFT YOU A RUN PLEASE ACCEPT THE GIFT
According to Baseball Savant the Jays swung at 55 pitches out of the zone and the Dodgers swung at 44 pitches out of the zone.
Lukes had the most chases in the game with 10 and Gimenez and Edman were tied for the 2nd most with 7 each.
It looked from the gameday like Lukes swung at three straight ball fours there
According to Baseball Savant the Jays swung at 55 pitches out of the zone and the Dodgers swung at 44 pitches out of the zone
Thank you, that’s great
I would love to see a breakdown of all of the bunt attempts in this postseason and their success rates. It has been truly horrific to watch.
It just me or is blake treinen lookin smooth as a bowling ball recently