Easily Digested Commentary on Some Notable Debuts

In the summer of 2005, the author of this post contracted at a Chicago area restaurant some manner of foodborne illness. The symptoms produced by same needn’t be explored in any depth here; to say, however, that I experienced roughly all the forms of “gastric distress” is sufficient. Nor is it the deepest throes of my illness that are relevant here, but rather the recovery process. Indeed, after about a week or so of turmoil, I returned to something like normal health. The only qualification: that I’d be compelled, for the better part of the next month, to survive on diet consisting strictly of starches, mashed and non-fibrous fruits, and (were I feeling particularly strong) baked, skinless chicken. These were foods which represented the least possible challenge to my sensitive digestive system.

What follows is the analytical equivalent of the aforementioned diet. It is designed not to examine in any depth — but rather to provide deserving coverage of — certain players who’ve made their major-league debuts this season. To say that it is both incomplete and haphazard is probably correct. To say, however, that it might be of some use to those readers who have exhausted themselves mentally by means of their other daily pursuits — this is also reasonable.

Below are five players whose debuts have been notable for one reason or another — where notable has been entirely at the discretion of the author. Accompanying each player are his season stats to date (denoted by Season), his Steamer rest-of-season projection (Steamer ROS), and his ZiPS rest-of-season projection (ZiPS ROS).

Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona (Profile)

Type	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
Season	12.2	7.1	4.3	0.0	.161	1.42	2.86	0.3
Steamer ROS	86.0	7.8	4.8	0.9	.291	4.48	4.37	0.4
ZiPS ROS	96.0	7.1	4.8	0.7	.313	4.45	4.39	0.4

Who he is: Right-hander in D-backs rotation.

Notable because: He was the seventh pick in the 2011 draft. Has exhibited excellent fastball and curveball as amateur and minor leaguer.

Earliest returns: Positive. In an unexpected way, though.

Bradley has never demonstrated particularly strong command, nor would his walk rate after two starts (12.8%) suggest that he’s changed in any substantial way so far as that’s concerned. Still, he’s produced better-than-average fielding-independent and run-prevention numbers — largely, those, on the strength of unexpected strong ground-ball tendencies. Jeff Sullivan examined those tendencies yesterday. One takeaway: he’s been throwing a riding fastball low in the zone. More than most every pitcher.

*****

Odubel Herrera, OF, Philadelphia (Profile)

Type	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Season	47	.302	.362	.512	145	3.0	0.2	0.5
Steamer ROS	455	.241	.284	.324	70	-15.3	2.3	0.1
ZiPS ROS	520	.276	.319	.349	88	-7.8	4.1	1.3

Who he is: Philadelphia’s starting center fielder.

Notable because: He was selected in the Rule 5 draft this offseason having never played the outfield.

Earliest returns: Quite positive.

A combination of reason and also this site’s projected standings have indicated that 2015 will be a difficult season for the Phillies. So far, both reason and the projected standings have been basically right. As of Monday, the club had recorded the fourth-worst winning percentage in the majors — and had produced the fourth-worst BaseRuns record, as well.

Herrera, however, represents one of the club’s few encouraging developments. He’s produced the top WAR figure among all Phillies players. He’s benefited from batted-ball distribution (.394 BABIP), but he has also controlled the plate reasonably well (8.5% BB, 21.3% K). His performance in center field, meanwhile, appears to have been average at worst thus far — which is notable, again, owing to how he’d played there only twice ever in the minors.

*****

Jung-ho Kang, SS/3B, Pittsburgh (Profile)

Type	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Season	14	.077	.143	.077	-32	-2.1	0.1	-0.2
Steamer ROS	289	.249	.308	.399	101	0.0	3.4	1.3
ZiPS ROS	445	.227	.296	.383	93	-4.0	0.6	1.1

Who he is: Notable offseason acquisition from Korea. Last year’s home-run leader in that same country.

Notable because: He plays the infield and Pittsburgh’s starting infield spots were all accounted for. Also: he led the KBO in home runs last year.

Earliest returns: Maybe not great.

It’s only 14 plate appearances, of course, but it’s 14 plate appearances on top of the ca. 50 plate appearances he recorded in spring training — during which he also recorded a strikeout rate above 30%. So none of it seems particularly encouraging, even if the overall sample is rather limited.

Regarding the quality of Kang’s 10 batted balls to date, there’s not enough room to examine them all here. That said, here’s a screencap of Kang’s one hit — which, unsurprisingly, he didn’t strike with great authority.

*****

Paulo Orlando, OF, Kansas City (Profile)

Type	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Season	29	.269	.345	.654	165	2.2	-0.3	0.3
Steamer ROS	156	.247	.289	.349	78	-3.8	-1.7	-0.1
ZiPS ROS	431	.245	.284	.336	72	-12.6	3.3	0.5

Who he is: A 29-year-old outfielder signed originally out of Brazil by the Chicago White Sox in 2005.

Notable because: He’s only the third Brazilian to play in the majors. Also, he played over 1000 games in the minors. Also, his first three hits in the majors — and four of his first five — were all triples.

Earliest returns: Overwhelmingly positive.

As of Monday night, when the author began this post, Orlando had recorded four triples among his first six hits and 26 plate appearances. One finds this morning, however, that he’s now responsible for five of them, having added another against Minnesota last night (box). There’s nothing about Orlando’s established levels to suggest that this sort of thing ought to have been expected — largely, that is, because there’s nothing about anyone’s established levels to suggest that this sort of thing should be expected.

The panoply of triples, if obviously unsustainable, does at least point to at least two features within Orlando’s skill set — namely, speed and non-negligible power on contact. The former exists in greater quantity for him than the latter, but even that has never profiled as an obvious major-league asset. The overall profile remains largely the same for Orlando. That said, the prospect of a career minor leaguer developing into a useful bench player is a heartwarming one.

*****

Devon Travis, 2B, Toronto (Profile)

Type	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Season	49	.356	.408	.644	191	5.1	0.2	0.7
Steamer ROS	393	.264	.308	.412	100	0.4	1.4	1.6
ZiPS ROS	469	.251	.299	.398	93	-3.6	1.6	1.4

Who he is: Toronto’s starting second baseman.

Notable because: He was a college pick who performed above his tools/draft slot as a minor leaguer. Also, he was acquired this offseason by the Blue Jays this offseason from the Tigers in exchange for Anthony Gose.

Performance relative to expectations: Very positive.

Selected by Detroit in the 13th round out of Florida State in 2012 — and the recipient of a nearly slot appropriate $200 thousand bonus — Travis dramatically outplayed his pedigree in the minors, largely on the strength of his contact and (it would seem) batted-ball skills. Those two qualities, in conjunction with his ability to play second base, conspired to earn for him a basically league-average projection before the season.

Over his first 49 plate appearances, Travis has essentially retained his strikeout rates and batted-ball figures from the minor leagues while also exhibiting power. The projections and reason dictate that the latter two of those three variables are candidates for substantial regression. The collection of skills, however, still points to a league-average rookie season. A substantial accomplishment, that.