Effectively Wild Episode 1624: How to Build a Baseball Dynasty

by
December 4, 2020

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about what went down at MLB’s non-tender deadline, touching on whether the news for arbitration-eligible players was as dire as forecasted, the more notable non-tenders, and the short- and long-term futures of free agency, then (29:36) talk to Jason Coskrey of The Japan Times about how the NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have built a dynasty that has won four consecutive Japan Series titles (and seven since 2011), how the Hawks have influenced the rest of the league, the MLB futures of Oscar Luis Colás (the “Cuban Ohtani”) and ace Tomoyuki Sugano, the strength of women’s baseball in Japan, how the NPB dealt with the pandemic, and whether more foreign players may want to play in Japan.

Audio intro: The Mountain Goats, "High Hawk Season"
Audio interstitial: Superchunk, "Hello Hawk"
Audio outro: Shovels & Rope, "The Last Hawk"

Link to list of non-tendered players
Link to list of signed players who avoided arbitration
Link to Craig Edwards on non-tender takeaways
Link to FanGraphs Audio non-tender reactions
Link to FanGraphs international prospect rankings
Link to Jason on the Hawks’ recent dominance
Link to Jason on the Hawks’ latest Japan Series win
Link to Jason on the Pacific League/Central League imbalance
Link to Jason on the NPB’s COVID restrictions
Link to MLB.com story on Colás
Link to MLB Network segment on Colás
Link to Colás video
Link to Jason on Sugano
Link to Sugano video
Link to Jason on women’s baseball in Japan
Link to Jessica Luther on women’s baseball in Japan
Link to story about Ayami Sato

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tomerafan
3 years ago

Rather than raise the minimum salary meaningfully, I wonder if the answer to “fair compensation” is to increase the minimum salary for 2nd and 3rd year players. It’s absurd that 3rd year players who haven’t signed a long-term contract are often paid an inflationary, at best, raise over their rookie minimum.

I worry a bit that raising the minimum salary significantly will result in less players being called up and realizing their dream of being a major leaguer. (We can argue whether that should happen, but I suspect it will. A GM will need to be more certain of a call-up’s ability to contribute.) But a system where 2nd year players must earn at least 125-150% of the minimum salary, and 3rd year players must earn at least 150-200% of the minimum salary, would accomplish a couple of goals. It would better compensate young players in their pre-arb years, and it would reduce the gap in cost between min-eligible and arb-eligible players, while also increasing the odds that some young players will be released into free agency in a way that could allow them a second chance with another organization before they reach arbitration.

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EFF51member
3 years ago
Reply to  tomerafan

I like this approach. The question is what are the players willing to concede in the CBA to make this happen? A salary cap of some sort coupled with a salary floor?

The glaring disparity in team salaries between the large markets and the small markets is hurting the future of the game.

Your suggestion would assist with a salary floor and I would also reduce the arbitration from 3 to 2 years as part of the salary floor concept.

But the MLPA would need to be willing to entertain some sort of a salary cap concept in return

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tomerafan
3 years ago
Reply to  EFF51

A cap-and-floor is going to be a difficult proposal, logistically, because it will require two separate negotiations. If I’m a small market owner, then the big-market teams have to increase revenue sharing before I can agree to a floor. That may be just as difficult a negotiation as working with the Union.

The first thing that needs to change, though, is that the economic benefit to a franchise of making the playoffs and winning the World Series has to increase. There’s all sorts of moral hazard to consider, but the biggest long-term economic problem with the sport is simply that winning doesn’t pay out enough. There’s too much economic incentive in just showing up and being competitive; pride, rather than economic gain, is far more a motivating factor.

I suspect what the owners are going to ultimately offer is expansion to 32 teams and the 50 new roster spots (and 80 40-man spots) that come along with it. The infusion of capital from two new franchises will help owners recoup cash flow and pay down debt. There’s plenty of ML-talent available for expansion franchises to sign.

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