Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/18/18

1:12
Eno Sarris: is this title about my struggle against the beer belly or

12:01
Jimbo Slice: Why did the Pirates system fail Gerrit Cole?

12:02
Eno Sarris: I think they need to relax a bit on the four-seamer thing. They really pound four-seamers hard, to the point of taking away two-seamers from prospects, in order to promote good command. But then they need to learn two-seam command, or they throw the four-seamer more than they should, like Cole does.

12:03
John M.: Do you really believe the Cardinals will go with Gregorson as their closer going into April? I just can’t seriously believe that after stating they wanted to upgrade the pen

12:06
Eno Sarris: Maybe going into April, but they have some pieces, could be Cecil or Lyons depending on how good and healthy they are this year. I don’t think they want to pay full freight on Holland, and I don’t blame them with his mechanics and history.

12:07
Eno Sarris: Maybe they sign Bud Norris? Maybe they trade for Bearclaw, Soria, Herrera? Maybe they do both.

12:08
Fred Durst: FEED ME MORE ALBIES HYPE PLEASE

12:08
Eno Sarris: I probably need to take a step back, breathe deep, and chill out.

12:08
CJL: Favorite breweries/beers in Denver area?

12:09
Eno Sarris: I had some Casey sours that were amazing and also really liked Cerebral.

12:09
Pie: My start up 15-team dynasty league just started it’s initial draft. How high would you value Acuna and other top prospects?

12:10
Eno Sarris: I’d rather fill my first three slots with under 27 major league stars, so I probably wouldn’t end up with Acuna. But in the fourth, close and ready guys might start to get my attention.

12:10
Nathan: Why don’t more fringe starters try to reinvent themselves as relievers a la Brandon Morrow? Especially with all of the 2-3 year deals handed out to relievers these days. From a financial perspective for these guys, the ceiling is higher as a starter, sure, but the floor is higher as a reliever, it seems.

12:11
Eno Sarris: Will probably happen more now. Agents should be at least having their fringe starters throw some max effort bullpens to give teams an idea of what they’d blow in the pen.

12:12
Roadhog: Are the A’s on the lookout for any LH relievers in trade, or ar they just gonna sign Watson?

12:13
Eno Sarris: Coulumbe is pretty good. I bet they spend a little on a reliever.

12:13
JD Martinez: Are the DBacks intentionally not using the h-word (humidor) until I have signed somewhere?

12:13
Eno Sarris: That sorta died down didn’t it?

12:13
Gub Gub: What do you do with leftover tamales the next day?

12:13
Eno Sarris: Go heavy on the salsa

12:14
Sal Fasano Youth: Has anyone talked about this offseason through the lens of a possible economic depression? Seems like a non-radical projection that the irrationally bloating stock market’s going to crash in the Trump era, possibly hard. What if owners are just hoarding cash and trying to avoid long-term debt?

12:14
Eno Sarris: I believe I read the economist said that this year was ripe for a big drop in the markets?

12:14
Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: Hello Eno!  Talk to me about Charlie Morton. Someone on the site said it would be foolish to sleep

12:15
Eno Sarris: Sleep is great. Sleep on him? He’s really good but how many innings can you bank on? Also going to have some issues with lefties, even with his ideas for combatting them.

12:15
Adam Doctolero: If the Giants end up going with Duggar in CF, they need to let him get 500+ ABs right? It makes no sense to me to have him on the major league roster only to platoon him with a right-handed hitter and cost him development time.

12:16
Eno Sarris: Unless the injuries have come from overuse? Also, how bad can a contending team let their CF be? A day off here or there may not be a big deal. But if he’s doing well, they’ll play him.

12:16
Mattyb: If you’re Dipoto, what additional moves (if any) would you try to make to get the Mariners to the playoffs in 2018?

12:18
Eno Sarris: I don’t love the back end of their rotation. Signing a front end guy would be amazing, but they are at their previous high in salary outlay already. Doubt they really have the assets to trade for a starter. Maybe they can get a guy like Trevor Cahill for a cheap number? Chris Tillman?

12:19
Erik: Whose WAR total will be higher: Gerrit Cole’s over the next two years, or Joe Musgrove’s over however many years of team control he has left?

12:20
Eno Sarris: They’ve got Musgrove until 2022, so his number, but it’s a bit unfair of a comparison because the Astros need the wins more now, and also can get someone from their farm or FA to fill that roster slot later.

12:20
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12:21
Eno Sarris: If they value close guys more than upside, and wanted guys that project to be useful at the very least, then yes, you can say they did okay. But if you look at this through the lens of, did they get a future star that can power a core… I don’t think they did.

12:21
CB: Do the recent additions to SF’s lineup add any value to their starting pitchers? Specifically Shark, his xfip was almost a point lower than his ERA last year.

12:21
Eno Sarris: That infield is going to be very good defensively. Top three or five good. Depending on CF, the outfield could be decent too.

12:22
Gub Gub: Which foreign language would you like to learn?

12:22
Eno Sarris: Spanish. So obviously spanish. I did an interview with Max Kepler in German (the stupid recorder wasn’t working) and I could pepper some French into a conversation, but what use is any of that.

12:22
Erik: What veterans who struggled last year might see their draft cost fall too far in fantasy drafts, to the point they might actually be assets? I’m wondering about maybe Cabrera or Pujols, but I’m curious about any names you might have.

12:25
Eno Sarris: Worried about the health of those guys, and also think something funky about Cabrera’s xwOBA numbers based on the fact that Detroit’s gun was hot (that may have been fixed) and Detroit’s outfield is actually bigger than is listed (by two feet in some spots). I think maybe someone like Mitch Moreland is interesting. Stephen Piscotty. Hanley Ramirez if he’s healthy again. Brad Miller (health again, but not as old and had the surgery).

12:25
Tony Eusebio: Do the Astros have another move in them aside from a lefty specialist? It seems like they will just split LF between Fisher/Marisnick/Marwin until Tucker comes up

12:25
Eno Sarris: Yeah I have no problems with that LF scenario. No need to spend a lot there.

12:25
ChiSox2020: Avi Garcia for Hunter Pence + Prospect(s)? Frees up cap space for SFG to get a CF and Avi has more upside, 2 years control.

12:26
Eno Sarris: Maybe but I don’t like Avi Garcia much. So much about his body, no big change in approach, ton of luck on ground balls, and wasn’t there a picture of him getting big again this offseason?

12:26
Ari: Do you think it would have been smarter for the Padres to sign Eduardo Nunez for 2 years to play SS, rather than trading for 1 year of Galvis?

12:26
Eno Sarris: I did not get the Galvis thing at all.

12:26
Kevin Mick Latchy: Who else throws a pitch similar to Joe Musgrove’s 1-seam sinker?

12:26
Eno Sarris: I know Luke Weaver and Lance Lynn do!

12:26
Eno Sarris: One learned it from the other.

12:27
Dub: who is your favorite pitcher of all time?

12:27
Eno Sarris: John Smoltz. Johan Santana. Jason Schmidt. Justin Verlander. Tim Lincecum.

12:28
v2micca: In your mind, what team remains the most logical landing place for Mike Moustakas?

12:31
Eno Sarris: If Yanks have the money… They at around 176, so if they can get him for 15-18 a year, they might get him. I’m sure he wants more. He’s got the second best projected WAR among FAs… Mets aren’t going to spend like that, probably. Cardinals as a dark horse? What do the Twins have left to spend after a starter?

12:31
Eno Sarris: Weird how the market just dried up for him.

12:32
Long division: Which division will have the closest race this year?

12:32
Eno Sarris: AL East? NL Central could be sneaky close.

12:33
Biggus Richardus: What to do with Vince Velazquez?  In a rebuild, but need pitching over everything else.

12:33
Eno Sarris: Hold one more year! Could also be a lights out closer. Neris is good but didn’t lock that down.

12:33
David: Time for a terrible and completely ruthless question because life is always unfair – if you had to choose only one, would you keep beer or baseball in your life?

12:34
Eno Sarris: Might have an answer for you soon.

12:35
Nelson: Dave leaves and all of a sudden no one shows up for their chats (except you and the RG guys). Its like theres a substitute teacher all week at Fangraphs. Movie time!

12:35
Eno Sarris: Movie time!

12:35
Clay : Whats your expectation for Cody Bellinger this year? How much 2nd year regression should we expect?

12:36
Eno Sarris: Dude is young. I hope for K% progression.

12:36
Jay: What do you make of Rafael Devers?  Top 10 3B?  Or just another overhyped red sox prospect?

12:36
Eno Sarris: Love him. Wish he hit more fly balls, but aging curves say he should hit more fly balls, and I love his combination of contact and power in his first try.

12:36
BT: If fantasy sites like CBS can program Ohtani as a two-way player, why not just open it up for all pitchers to be hitter eligible?

12:36
Eno Sarris: Because very few people want that.

12:36
Guest: Jeff Passan’s recent article on MLBPA

12:38
Eno Sarris: It was good. For those blaming sabermetrics and the fact that teams are gradually valuing contracts the same way, I just ask why there would be such a stark difference this year over last year? Sabermetrics just wants efficient use of funds, if one type of player is overvalued, there should be another that gets the money instead. I think it’s more likely that the penalties in the CBA are working and the three big teams that would have signed big contracts by now are all taking a pause on this offseason.

12:38
Hunky Dory: True or false: the trade package for Josh Harrison will be better than the one for McCutchen.

12:38
Eno Sarris: False.

12:39
Oddball Herrera: Not one to yell bias often, but do you think sports media at large is catering to Yankees fans (and setting unrealistic expectations) just a little by exaggerating the likelihood that Darvish is going to sign a discount contract (Cashman’s 90 million is a joke, some outlets seemed to take it seriously…) or that they will somehow offload Ellsbury’s horrible contract? Google Yu Darvish and it’s all Dodgers and Yankees, who both seem like huge longshots practically speaking due to luxury tax concerns.

12:39
Eno Sarris: Come on Twins, get it.

12:40
Bruce: Im turning 40 in a month. Am I still allowed to go to a dubstep show this weekend?

12:40
Eno Sarris: ooh where

12:40
Bork: The struggle of Panda’s belts

12:41
Merv Throneberry: Sorry it’s been awhile…unemployment is time-consuming!

12:41
Gub Gub: Man, The Giants sure are in Rocky 5 mode now.

12:41
Eno Sarris: Struggle interlude.

12:42
Nelson: Eno, can you help me get a group together to bid on Smuttynose, which is going up for auction?

12:42
Eno Sarris: I got five on it

12:42
The Decadent Moose: Any chance you’ll chime in with an answer to Moncada or Albies?  (keep forever and ever)

12:42
Eno Sarris: People will think I’m wrong, people will think I’m crazy, but I’m in the tank. Watch some Albies. you’ll fall in love like I have.

12:42
MikeMitch: The Astros gave a lot of innings to replacement level guys (led by team innings leader Mike Fiers) in 2017. With Verlander and Cole, this now looks like a team that *could* do something crazy, like score 900 runs and allow 600. 110-win stuff. Fair?

12:42
Eno Sarris: Fair.

12:43
Jay: Tough to buy the argument for Giants signing Cain and dealing with CBT penalties (which would really blow up if they sign anyone significant next year), draft picks, intl pool money versus say trading for Broxton (you would be buying low also) with Duggar as additional fallback or platoon.

12:43
Eno Sarris: They’re running out of prospects to trade. Beede might be needed as their 6/7, Heliot is offlimits. Chris Shaw… I guess that’s your last chip.

12:43
Hunky Dory: How hard are we all gonna choke when Cole misses half the year with a shoulder injury and Musgrove pitches like a #2/3?

12:44
Eno Sarris: Musgrove told me he was 94 as a starter after cleaning up his mechanics, and there was one game where he was, but then… then he was relieving so it’s hard to know what his velo will be as a starter this year. He also gets a free out or two per start now.

12:45
WhosYourPadre: Why is Buxton’s NFBC ADP 100 spots higher than Margot? Does that say more about Buxton’s hype or Margot’s sleepiness?

12:45
Eno Sarris: More speed but I tend towards the Margot types myself, especially with all those picks in between.

12:45
Justin: What’s your take on Swarzak?  It seems like his change in approach is legitimate.

12:45
Eno Sarris: Change in velo you mean. I think he’s good and that Mets pen is sneaky good.

12:46
Jim: LA times ran an article today about the debt service rules limiting the Dodgers ability to spend. The idea that MLB would punish the Dodgers in any meaningful way over this is absurd right?

12:46
Eno Sarris: Could be cover because ‘we want to keep our international spending money and picks’ doesn’t sound as convincing.

12:46
tacopocket: Favorite beer – Guinness.  Bourbon county stout is amazing but just not available enough.  2 part question – have you have bourbon county?  and can you suggest some beers that are comparable?

12:47
Eno Sarris: BCBS is a bit big for me, but yeah I like it. I like Guinness! You might like Left Hand Milk Stout on nitro, that’s available. Founders’ Breakfast Stout and Old Rasputin should be at your local shop.

12:48
The Dweez: I’ve always thought we had a musical connection Eno, after last weeks Hammond fest I know we do!  Baseball wise, the Brewers will be smart with Jimmy “the Groundhog” Nelson right?  He says he’s ahead of schedule?

12:48
Eno Sarris: Shoulders suck tho!

12:48
Eno Sarris: That reminds me that there’s someone here that always wants me to play John Denver. So here you go

12:48
Eno Sarris: oops

12:49
Eno Sarris: fine

12:49
Eno Sarris:

12:49
Eno Sarris: still say Toots did it better.

12:49
EL: If the Giants are really going to stay below the luxury tax, should they spend their remaining cash on CF or pitching?

12:49
Eno Sarris: They have no remaining cash then. They have bout four million and you need to leave that money for inseason acquisitions and buffer.

12:50
Chris: Hey Eno, what do we expect from Conforto this season, given that he won’t be back until May? Where should he be drafted among OF in standard 5×5?

12:50
Eno Sarris: He only managed about 500 plate appearances last year, and could do something similar next year. I’d look at what he was worth last year, drop a round or two for risk, and rank him there. I’d love to pick him up as my third OF, stick him on the DL, and grab a spring surger for his slot.

12:50
tacopocket: how did Minnesota steal reed like that?!!?!    he’s a very good reliever who can close.  When bullpen arms are becoming more and more valuable so I was shocked to see that deal?  Especially when you compare it to the wade davis deal (which I personally think was a pretty bad deal).  Why didn’t the Nats, Cards, Cubs, dodgers, etc…. beat that contract???

12:51
Eno Sarris: Cards shoulda been ON that.

12:51
Carson Daly: Dear Fred Durst,

12:51
Stumped in Texas: Dancing like this will help work off beer! Great band.

12:51
Gub Gub: Have you tried jumping rope lately?  It’s way harder than I remember.

12:52
Eno Sarris: We can do better, guys.

12:52
Carl: Please tell me the Mets are just trying to motivate Dom Smith.   He had a rough start month, but that happens.  Dustin Pedroia had a similar first 2 months and won an MVP (not that year, of course)

12:52
Eno Sarris: I’d take Dom over Gonzalez and I think eventually the Mets will, too.

12:52
Billy Beane: Eno, how do you feel about calzones?

12:53
Eno Sarris: In order to have one slice of pizza last night I had to gulp some apple cider vinegar first, gulp fizzy water next, take a pill before bed, and still woke up feeling crappy.

12:53
chief: Going out to fenway in September. Any good breweries in the area to check out?

12:53
Eno Sarris: Go to Cambridge and hit Lamplighter and Lord Hobo first.

12:53
BTinVT: Do you believe Rivero is or closely approaching elite status?

12:54
Eno Sarris: Is

12:54
Nate: 2020 will be a bad year in SF, but 2018 should be a great year, right? Right? Please?

12:54
Eno Sarris: Wouldn’t it be sorta awesome if they did a worst to first after everyone yelled at them to rebuild

12:54
Stumped in Texas:

12:55
Eno Sarris: Look at that voice coming from that man.

12:55
Ridley: When you consider that Wade Davis just signed a 3 year $52 million deal, does that make Brad Hand’s 3 year $19.7 million deal (with a club option for year 4 at $10M) the best deal of the offseason? If not, who?

12:55
Eno Sarris: Can’t compare them because Hand replaced some arb years there. All the deals signed before Free Agency turn out to be better than the FA deals.

12:56
Sweaty Jim: This may be a bit of a long shot but I’m heading to Tulum Mexico (south of Cancun) this weekend and am wondering if you have any beer recommendations. Happy to subsist on Modelo for a week but if there’s something special I would love to know about it

12:56
Eno Sarris: I went to my honeymoon there! They’re taking hotels away from people there, weird stuff going on, land rights battle, but it’s beautiful and quiet and amazing. Have some mixed drinks.

12:57
Fun Fact: Did you know Kevin Youkillis took over a brewery? The Greek God of Hops!

12:57
Eno Sarris: Yah, have had a few beers with him since I wrote this http://beergraphs.com/bb/1074-kevin-youkilis-new-beer-soaked-adventure…

12:57
Bort: Where does Andrew Triggs land — bullpen or rotation?

12:57
Eno Sarris: Rotation at first, if the team is good and he’s meh, then bullpen for one of the young guys.

12:58
forum199: I like Friedman’s overall process, but isn’t it a little strange how the Dodgers strongly adhere to depth in lieu of asset consolidation?  They have 2 starting caliber C’s and 5 starting-caliber OF’s including Toles and Verdugo…

12:58
Eno Sarris: Depth seems like a really good way to get to the postseason, but I think there’s a little evidence that it’s not as valuable thereafter.

12:58
Tumbler, Whiskey: Dbacks ran into “issues” installing the humidor last year (read into that what you will). It should be up this year.

12:58
Adam Jones: I tried moving closer to home plate but I’m still the worst defensive CF in the game. Do I just suck now?

12:58
Eno Sarris: Age comes for us all.

12:59
Dunkin’ Donuts: What are the chances Madison Bumgarner returns to his pre- 2017 form?

12:59
Eno Sarris: Velo was pretty much back by the end of the year. I think he’ll be better than his projections.

1:00
Sleepy: Smash your leftover tamales into some chilaquiles the following morning.  Thank me later.

1:00
The Toe: Should there be a luxury tax floor? Same penalties for being under as being over?

1:00
Eno Sarris: I think that might help get some middle class free agents some jobs, might also cost some young players jobs.

1:00
Planet Hoth: Have you ever talked with Chad Green? Has he always thought of himself as a Rotation guy? Think he’ll be great, just curious

1:01
Eno Sarris: I have, but not about that. We talked spin and release rates and cutter/slider. I told him he should trust the splitter more and asked him if the two breakers blend together. He didn’t think they did.

1:01
Mac: FYI- Tim Anderson will be the biggest breakout star of 2018.

1:01
Eno Sarris: I could see it actually. Just a little bit better decision making at the plate could lead to a .275/20/30 type season, and his D is really good. I just don’t think the k/bb/obp will ever be that good.

1:02
Dlen Gavis: Loved the piece by Edwards this morning on the Braves trying to compete this year, if they wanted to be a little less ambitious and more frugal, would a trade for C. Frazier and a signing of someone in the Walker (at 3b) or Todd Frazier mold work?

1:02
Eno Sarris: One thing I don’t have a sense of is how much Liberty is committed to spending. They’ve rejected deals in the past, deals that were just about to be sent to the player to sign.

1:03
Mel: When will the long winter of our discontent end?  I need the hot stove to ignite or else I’ll freeze to death!!!

1:03
Eno Sarris: I think we’ll all be busy typing next month. Oh and I’m heading back to Merida for my tenth anniversary in the middle of it so awesome.

1:03
Hannah Hochevar: Re: Morton: late last year he mentioned retiring early in an interview. Didn’t hear anything after that, but has me worried. (Though obviously it’s his life! Fantasy baseball makes me a bad person…)

1:03
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll play out his contract, money is still good.

1:04
Theo: I’m a crude, nude, tatooed dude at 44 degrees north latitude who is provide Eno an interlude

1:04
The Toe: Why is Tony Clark still employed?

1:04
Hannah Hochevar: Everyone’s talking about the slow off-season, but where’s my Wade “the White” LeBlanc coverage!?

1:04
Eno Sarris: yes yes yes

1:05
bee keeper: How do you look for HR suppression stuff? In a few pods last year you mention the side to side (cue ariana grande) movement can suppress HR, does fangraph have the data for pitchers to research (i.e. H movement)?

1:05
Jim Nantz: Can I be excited over a Gallo-Calhoun-Mazara-Odor core?

1:06
Eno Sarris: I really like the middle two.

1:06
Sonny: How long until teams like Braves, Phillies, Cardinals just throw up their hands and say ‘well if nobody wants these above average players we’ll take them.’ and scoop up the FA

1:06
Eno Sarris: Phillies already pulled that move once.

1:06
Momus: What do you make of the Blue Jays outfield?  It seems very crowded and yet with very little certainty anywhere outside of CF.  Do they use Hernandez, Alford, Granderson, Pompey, Pearce in some combo at the corners?  Are they still in the market for another proven OF?

1:07
Eno Sarris: I think they’re good. Teoscar Pillar is fine. Granderson plus can be okay, and Alford might take that job and run.

1:07
Luke : Eno, you talk about spin rate and pitch movement a lot. A lot of times I am missing context when I hear those numbers and I feel like it’s currently my biggest sabermetric blind spot. Any good primer articles you can link to? Or perhaps just the best place to see what average spin rates, etc. are?

1:08
Eno Sarris: Look at my recent article on Cole, there are links in the table that show the percentiles on spin and movement that should help.

1:08
Ned Yost: I had a dream last night that the Mets signed Lucas Duda to an 8 year/56 million dollar deal and deferred the money so that he’s making exactly the league minimum for the next 47 years.

1:08
Eno Sarris: Plausible.

1:10
GK: How do you like Corbin heading into 2018? His 2017 seems replicable.

1:11
Eno Sarris: Been talking to him about his changeup and he’s tried so many different things with it… maybe it just isn’t going to be good. I think he’s a good pitcher but more back end.

1:11
Seabass: What kind of peanuts are the best?

1:12
Eno Sarris: Jackie peanuts.

1:12
Magic 8 Ball: Is there new value in targeting age 30+ players with short term contracts? Seems the Giants have done well this year, and with a lot of unsigned free agent veterans left unsigned, well…

1:13
Eno Sarris: Like, right? Arroyo and Reynolds weren’t even top 100 type prospects. They got them for really decent deals.

1:13
Chalupa Batman: How would you rate Alderson as a GM? It feels as if he’s extremely limited in what he can do because of ownership, but could/should he have done better given the situation?

1:13
Eno Sarris: Sometimes when we yell at a GM we should be yelling at the owner. What Billy Eppler has managed to do so far in Anaheim is amazing because he’s got that problem.

1:13
Seabass: Mr. Met is Rey’s father

1:13
Mavis: In your article on Margot and launch angles, i noticed that Renfroe’s on the list with 20 degrees in the second half and this is reflected in his IsoP (.279 in the second half). How might that affect his ceiling?

1:14
Eno Sarris: Regressing to 18 or so will be good for him, but yeah he’s a big time power guy and I think he’ll hit 35 this year.

1:14
Chalupa Batman: How big of a difference would, say, signing Lynn and Frazier make for the Mets? Feels like that SHOULD be reasonable, right?

1:14
Eno Sarris: Would be HUGE.

1:14
Michael: What are your thoughts on luke weavers weight increase and how it could benefit him this season?

1:14
Eno Sarris: I think it might not be great. Command is a big part of his game, and commanding a new body isn’t easy.

1:16
PTBNL: The fact that Pedro was not in your favorite pitcher list is a travesty.

1:16
Eno Sarris: oooh oooh throw him in there.

1:17
Eno Sarris: have to pee be right back

1:18
Shawn: How would your life be different if your name was E-Yes instead of E-No?

1:18
Eno Sarris: Was a shortly held nickname in college. I’m probably more of an Eno tho. As much as I try to uplift.

1:18
Jonathon: Cueto and Stroman are recent history examples of multiple wind up guys, they have their A, B, C, D… deliveries.  How can analysts value the negative effects they have on opposing hitters?

1:19
Eno Sarris: I guess you could group a bunch that you think have good disruption and then look at ERA-FIP or ERA-SIERA type splits for the group. I tried to look at standard deviation in pace but the data there is iffy.

1:19
YKnotDisco?!: I most likely misunderstood your 12:02 answer but – Pitch Info has the Pirates #1 for SI% at 26.9%, #16 for FA% at 36.1%. Were you referring to their MiLB 4SF usage (only)?

1:20
Eno Sarris: Yeah multiple pitchers have told me that it’s 4s first in the minors. Taillon said they ‘gave him’ the 2s back when he got close to bigs.

1:20
2-D: I did it Eno! Finally had the Pliny the Elder. As my beer senpai, where do I go now?

1:20
Eno Sarris: Northeast young man. Heady Topper, Trillium, Tree House.

1:20
Billy Beane: Jharel Cotton spent the time before his wedding helping with disaster relief in the Virgin Islands. So someone better tell him to throw his fastball up in the zone to make him an ace pitcher because he’s awesome.

1:21
Eno Sarris: He really is. Unfortunately the one thing that will be difficult to change is his stride. But more cutters and more high fastballs might do it. If Estrada can do it…

1:21
Shawn: What are your favorite hops?

1:21
Eno Sarris: Citra, Mosaic, Nelson.

1:22
Billy Beane: RE: The likelihood of economic problems. The US economy has traditionally gone through a recession every 7-8 years and we are “due” for another one, but predicting that in a particular year based just on looking at a calendar is overfitting your model to the data.

1:24
Depressed Mets Fan: Any underrated Mets prospects you think will make a Mets fan actually bother checking the minor league box scores?

1:24
Eno Sarris: It’s… gotten worse. Becerra maybe?

1:24
Floyd: There are hints that Mozeliak feels Mikolas can be better than a #4/5 and that the Cubs wanted him.  Have you seen his work in the NBP or translated stats?  Expectations for 2018?

1:25
Eno Sarris: Yes, I’ve seen translated stats that say that he should be a top 20 pitcher here, and stats from NPB that say he was a top three guy over there, and yet… I’m buying in, but Cards are probably happy they paid what they did.

1:25
Anal Hershiser: Eno! How soon could Vlad jr be pushed if he continues to amaze?

1:25
Eno Sarris: Late this year?

1:25
Jstodola : Are you going to the SABR Analytic Conference in March?

1:25
Eno Sarris: Yes I’ll be on a panel!

1:25
Anal Hershiser: Will Calhoun play everyday? Do you believe his crazy projection?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Only thing that worries me is his pop up rate. But I think he has more hit feel than Odor, so I think he’ll be okay.

1:26
Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

1:26
Orlando Arcia: What’s my 2018 ceiling? Can I be Lindor-lite?

1:27
Eno Sarris: Dunno about that. Hits too many ground balls to show that kind of power, doesn’t have quite the same speed. I do think he could get to something like three wins with better D numbers, a little bit better contact, a little more value on basepaths.

1:27
Anal Hershiser: Are you into Matt Olson this year?

1:27
Eno Sarris: Yes, Anal.

1:28
Corey: You love to use ISO, but it seems like it is dead considering we no longer believe that every player should have a 290 BABIP. Thoughts? What does it capture that SLG doesn’t?

1:28
Eno Sarris: I don’t think saying Ryan Schimpf had a .420 slugging the year he hit like .190 captures the state of his power?

1:28
Sean Manaea: We gave up my boy Healy for Emilio Pagan. What do you think of our new relief pitcher? Can he replicate his rookie season or will the flyballs haunt him?

1:28
Eno Sarris: Future closer, probably. Surprised from results stats that he doesn’t throw harder, though.

1:29
Alex: Aren’t the Astros just wasting Peacock now that their rotation is so loaded?

1:29
Eno Sarris: Teams really need that sixth guy.

1:29
JSDee: jankowski to SF. make it happen.

1:29
Eno Sarris: Shouldn’t cost much.

1:30
tommy lasagna, sr.:

1:30
Eno Sarris: auto share on anything called soul sauce

1:31
dynasty doug: traded paxton for calhoun in dynasty…. too bold?

1:31
Eno Sarris: No, always get the bat.

1:31
dunno what Margot til it’s gone: You have ruined Albies for everyone’s NL draft, please leave Margot in peace

1:31
Matt: My biggest problem with the whole teams “not trying to win” argument is that it creates a fake narative when people say “happy losing”. No, but if they don’t expect to win, they might as well allocate their now-resources to tomorrow.

1:32
Eno Sarris: But then the Twins happen. I agree that teams should look to tomorrow if they projected for fewer than 78 wins or so, but above that, a few vet signings on short deals should make sense.

1:32
Matt: What is the next Statcast data point that revolutionizes the way we think about the game (as LA and EV have)?

1:32
Eno Sarris: Batted ball spin?

1:32
Empire State Building: Would you trade Lewis Brinson for Sonny Gray straight up when you can have Brinson for 6+ years and Gray for 2? Thanks.

1:32
Eno Sarris: no.

1:33
Kingpin: Are any of the Mets quintet of Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, Gsellman, or Lugo worth anything more than a $1 flyer in NL-only standard 5×5 auction keeper league?

1:33
Eno Sarris: Matz has the stuff but massive injury problems, I might go a few more bucks.

1:33
Hannah Hochevar: people think I’m wrong and crazy all the time! You get used to it.

1:33
John: Sixto and Moniak too much for Yelich?

1:33
Eno Sarris: Not sure if it’s enough if they asking for Acuna.

1:33
Shawn: Joining a HR pool this year. Any specific things to look at for who may break out?

1:34
Eno Sarris: Check that launch angle increase list?

1:34
Xavier: Can you talk about Brandon Nimmo as both a player and an asset? From both Met fans and pirate fans, there seems to be a divisive view on trade value. Some fans seem to think he’s very value while other think his value is negligible

1:34
Eno Sarris: I see a center fielder with great plate discipline and a chance to develop power. Others might see an OBP-first corner outfielder, and that’s the problem.

1:35
Eno Sarris: It’s like why Boog Powell keeps getting traded. But Nimmo has more chance at power.

1:35
Spicy boy: Nik turley has fastball and curveball spin rates of ~2600 each. The results sucked last year but is there anything here?

1:36
Eno Sarris: I tried to look into fastball/curveball tunneling on that Cole piece and the results were super weird. I think it’s generally good, but if his arm slot isn’t as high as it should be, or if his movement isn’t super interesting, it might not be the be all end all.

1:36
YKnotDisco?!: Why does baseball have managers but the other major 3 have (head) coaches?

1:37
Eno Sarris: Maybe it’s an implicit recognition that baseball’s version is really a middle manager, a manager of personalities, while the other sports draw up plays and have more impact on the game.

1:37
TapeyBeercone: Your thoughts on Sierra Nevada’s Hazy Little Thing IPA?

1:37
Eno Sarris: Decent, available, cheap, pretty good. Still prefer Mikkeller’s among readily available NEIPA, and then regionally, prefer Brouwerij West, Fieldwork, Cellarmaker, and then the actual North East ones.

1:38
Sonny: Please refer to Clint Frazier as ‘Forearms of God’ so we can add it to his Bref nicknames

1:38
Eno Sarris: Flow of God too tho

1:38
The Old Buccaneer: Took my kids to an elementary school talent show last night. The correct response is to clap harder and longer the worse the individual performance is.

1:38
Ben: When I see lude, I think lube. Then I think interlube, which isn’t a word, so I think innerlube, which also isn’t a word, so I think inner tube. Which makes me think of fun at the lake. But it’s winter and cold, so I get sad. Thanks.

1:38
Seems Obvious: Don’t you find that beer exasperates your reflux?

1:38
Eno Sarris: Certain ones more than others. The deeper darker ones in particular.

1:38
Oddball Herrera: These days in Tulum it’s “have some $12 mixed drinks”, but yes it’s gorgeous there

1:39
Keefths: What’s the deal with Angels pitchers Skaggs and Richards?
Are they gona be injured by May ? How legit are they ?

1:39
Eno Sarris: Both legit, though Richards more a 2 and Skaggs more a 4. And yeah, I don’t have that crystal ball but their history says they’ll be injured at some point this year.

1:39
Mike: Missing from this sabermetrics vs spending debate is that what really seems to be going on is team aversion to contract length, which analysis has shown us is logical because the back ends of most 7+ year deals are really bad for the team and cost them a lot of future flexibility (Kemp, Pujols, etc).

If FA were all signing 1 year deals I bet there’d be some substantial differences in how much teams were willing to spend.   It’s not this year’s money they are hoarding, its 2023s and 2024’s money they don’t want to spend.

1:40
Eno Sarris: But the long money makes the up front money affordable. If you go shorter, you should get more money. Remember Manny’s last contract?

1:40
Jim-Bob: Given the OBP skills and the organizational philosophy, the Phils are going to hit JP Crawford top 2 in that lineup, right?

1:40
Eno Sarris: yes and he has some upside, particularly if the MLB ball helps him with the power.

1:41
OddBall Herrera: You know what this chat app really needs?  It needs to have a timestamp next to the question to show when it was actually asked.  No more wondering where you are in the queue

1:41
Eno Sarris: 1:01.

1:41
LoMoCoMoTive: What happened to Addison Russell? Why is he not a top SS based on his prospect pedigree?

1:41
Eno Sarris: He made incremental improvements, he’s young and could still bust out, and he had a bad personal year last year.

1:41
The Old Buccaneer: I recently read, just a bit, about the historical political and economic oppression of Haiti by other nations. I was amazed. How is this part of history not more widely known/taught?

1:42
Eno Sarris: Oh man they had to buy their own freedom and then had to dig out from the debt that required… yeah man they been screwed. And don’t get me started on the world bank and IMF loans. I’ve seen what those did to Jamaica.

1:43
Roadhog: Would the A’s trade Graveman if prodded? Seems like teams could value him pretty highly.

1:43
Eno Sarris: They will trade him if they aren’t good this year. They have pitchers coming.

1:43
Dougy: Is it me or are the Giants kinda trading future assets to only get closer to the Dodgers but still nowhere near passing them?

1:43
Eno Sarris: Sure, but wild cards can win it all too.

1:44
Corey: In regards to Luke Weaver adding weight, generally I think pitchers adding muscle isn’t a great idea. Thor and Felix both spent last offseason putting on muscle and both quickly had injuries. Can you think of an example where a pitcher put on a significant amount of muscle and was better for it?

1:44
Eno Sarris: Forrest Whitley went the other way and zoomed up draft boards. Heavier.. dunno.

1:44
Stumped in Texas: need a chat catheter

1:44
Rule 5: Is Michael fulmer a top 30 SP right now?

1:44
Eno Sarris: yes

1:45
stever20: where do you expect home run levels to be this year league wide?

1:45
Eno Sarris: Maybe a little regression but not back to early 2015.

1:45
Johnny5Alive: what do you think, making a batch of corned beef and cabbage, straining the water, and using that water as to make a beer, like a stout. sound good?

1:45
Eno Sarris: Stout or brown, would be interested.

1:45
Tweedle dum: What are your expectations of Giolito this season?  His projections are horrible!

1:46
Eno Sarris: I’m still not a big fan. Straight fastball, needs to have great command or great velo and not sure he has either.

1:46
Rockie Dangerfield: I wonder if I should get some milk stout to dip these new chocolate-hazelnut Oreos in…

1:46
Alastar: Can Polanco return to his 2016 form with good health or was his production more than health related? Also, does he have another level in him?

1:47
Eno Sarris: Could have just been health, but he had hammy and shoulder issues and that’s bad for power and speed.

1:47
Gub Gub: OK, I just went pee.  Luckily, no one else was around when I discovered how cold my hands were

1:47
botchatheny: i just want to say anal hershiser is a fantastic name

1:47
Bilz: what do u project for margot?!

1:48
Eno Sarris: .270/18/25

1:48
7/10 Sandwich: What do you see for Willie Calhoun this year? is he just an AL version of Schwarber?

1:48
7/10 Sandwich:

1:49
Stumped in Texas: Not sure if you can publish this  

1:49
Ben Solo: Tommy Pham? Legit or lucky?

1:49
Eno Sarris: Legit, but closer to age related decline than people realize.

1:49
My_Brain_Hertz: Looking through some of the statcast data, and it looks like Jose Martinez on the cardinals was pretty freakin awesome! He had a good 95+ mph rate, #5 at xwOBA, #1 at xBA. Yet he seems to be getting no love because of playing time. Think he’ll make an impact this year?

1:50
Eno Sarris: I think he would have been served best by being in a trade, but maybe he can be an interesting injury replacement.

1:50
Bun B: Do we ever make you laugh 🙂

1:50
Eno Sarris: Of course.

1:50
morty : per the starting pitchers converting to closers, giving them a higher floor, a la morrow… helps to throw gasolina with some serious hop and have a wipe out secondary.  not every starter that lives around 92 can reach back and throw 97 because its a shorter burst- and not every starters 4 pitch arsenal can be pared down to 3 wipeout pitches.   ie- don’t see the floor being higher unless the pitcher in question has a certain skillset…    ah geeze

1:50
Eno Sarris: True, but the average guy gets 1.7 mph in going to pen, and some gain more. That’s why I would try to test my guy as a reliever, maybe sell him as one, just to field more offers.

1:50
Kyle: Just saw you mention “always get the bat” in regards to fantasy.  With how things went with pitching last year, could we possibly see a shift to where we value pitching a bit more?

1:51
Eno Sarris: Only at the very top. The rest will be taken out in the fifth.

1:51
Rob: Can you remind us why you mentioned several times late in the season that you found Woodruff to be very interesting?

1:51
Eno Sarris: really heavy fastball, good change by movement, I think he can get more whiffs from his secondaries.

1:52
Bun B: Add Fiddlehead to that northeast beer run

1:52
E: When will they stop making managers wear baseball pants?

1:52
Eno Sarris: Can’t unsee Bobby Cox.

1:52
2-D:
I’m pretty sure Juvy sampled the sauce

1:52
GP: Explain the apple cider vinegar / fizzy water thing

1:53
Eno Sarris: Some theory that acid reflux is from not being able to make enough acid during the meal, not being able to cut through heavy food, and therefore churning acid the rest of the night. So the vinegar primes the pump, gets you going. Fizzy water to disrupt the heavy food and bring some burps up.

1:54
Eno Sarris: Just trying to figure out my own gut flora.

1:54
bbboston: Ryon Healy… Are you still buying him?

1:54
Eno Sarris: Not as much now. There are a ton of platoon options there, he’s a righty, I’ve seen him get really down on himself for stretches, and I’m thinking we’ve seen his best.

1:55
Connor: Eric thames might actually have God’s forearms

1:55
Mel: Do you buy the idea that the Yankees have a thing for getting their minor league pitchers to add velo?

1:55
Eno Sarris: Like weighted balls or

1:55
JSDee: can you imagine cabbage stout farts?

1:56
Anon: How do you fix the HOF in 3 sentences or less?

1:56
Eno Sarris: Open up the ballots so everyone can see every ballot. Open up the ballots to as many votes as you want so that we don’t have artificial constraints.

1:57
Jay: If Cueto’s blisters were indeed due to the new ball, the projection systems completely miss that, right?  They probably assume injury time due to “typical aging risk” and factor that into the future projections?

1:57
Eno Sarris: He’s generally flummoxed projection systems anyway, so he’s basically a fulcrum for the Giants. If they win 90+ it’s because he returned to form.

1:58
Paddy: Would you keep Willie Calhoun over either Marwin or Josh Bell?  Their keeper prices are more or less the same.

1:58
Eno Sarris: yes over Marwin. Util guy.

1:59
Meetup: Oh, Eno laughs. Beer helps!

1:59
Fidrych Scratched: Did anyone report on the years that accompanied the alleged offer of $100M to JDM?

1:59
Eno Sarris: Five

1:59
Matt: As a prospect the knock on Luis Castillo was that he had no breaking ball to speak of, but it appears he threw a pretty effective slider last year. Was this simply a new/dramatically improved pitch for him?

1:59
Eno Sarris: I dunno, but it was pretty good. That pitch, plus the sinker, is why I see four pitches and can look past the command.

2:00
Tom Cruise: Acid reflux is also caused by thetans

2:00
Dirty Sanchez: Haven’t a chance to share this with you for a couple weeks, but over new years I learned it’s possible to both need to do diarrhea and be constipated

2:00
Tom Cruise: Cruddy hall of fame ballots are also caused by thetans.  God, you guys are clueless

2:00
Rickey Henderson: Will we ever see another 100 steal guy?

2:00
Eno Sarris: Doubt it.

2:01
I am the Walrus: What round would you usually take a pitcher in fantasy?

2:01
Eno Sarris: starting in the third.

2:01
Eno Sarris: used to wait until the ninth, but that was another time.

2:01
Eno Sarris: and it’s not a hard and fast rule.

2:01
Fidrych Scratched: What are your thoughts on MiLB’s insistence that pot is a banned substance that they should monitor and prohibit in states where it is legal and used in your own personal time?  Eric Filia is an idiot for knowing the rule and using the weed a second time, but to my thinking, the rule is wrong.

2:01
Eno Sarris: Also part of the stupid MLBPA not covering the minor leaguers thing — major leaguers not tested for it.

2:02
Matt: Acid reflux is a disease. Don’t victim shame.

2:02
Eno Sarris: Wait, what? I’m doing that? I’m the one dealing with it.

2:02
Yadier Solarman: Why is Curaçao not the most interesting baseball factory in the world?

2:02
Eno Sarris: There’s like five people on the island and they all play baseball it’s amazing.

2:02
Colby: sleep apena causes bad acid reflux do you snore?

2:03
Eno Sarris: No I’m good there phew.

2:03
tnt9357: In a Scoresheet league (so defense at SS > defense at 2B, and steals aren’t nearly as important as in Roto), would you take JP Crawford or Albies?  What if Crawford was a perennial Gold Glover?

2:03
Eno Sarris: Yeah I guess Crawford could be the choice there. I had a scratch defensive team, great offensive lineup, great bullpen, decent rotation, and high hook rates, and won it all last year after losing in the world series the year before.

2:04
John: Acunas page has a FV of 55 and ETA of 2020, am I looking at the wrong guy?

2:04
Eno Sarris: Just 2017’s scouting report. He had a good year.

2:04
Eno Sarris: Oh looks like Dan Szymborski is starting up

2:04
Eno Sarris:

2:05
Eno Sarris: It’s been a pleasure, people. You really are the best. Always have a ton of fun here.

2:05
Eno Sarris: Love

We hoped you liked reading Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/18/18 by Eno Sarris!

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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

newest oldest most voted
The_Beard
Member
The_Beard

Eno, you aren’t bailing to join the padres too are you?

That comment about choosing between beer and baseball and how we might find out soon, then that nearly tearful goodbye at the end of the chat……..

Robert
Member
Member
Robert

I’m scared too, beard.

DBA455
Member
DBA455

Presumably he’s leaving to go full time to BeerGraphs (or something else beer-related).