Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 10/6/16

Eno Sarris: not beautiful like Thor vs Bum, but this has it’s own kind of beauty

Bork: Hello, friend!

Eno Sarris: Hello!

Steve: Which wild card game was more exciting for you?

Eno Sarris: The ending of the first was amazing, because he had the crowd behind him. That always makes things nice. But if amazing pitching is exciting, and I think it is, the second was v exciting.

Bork: Just a plug for everyone to please buy my new “I’m with Bork” t shirts, and coming this winter I’m writing a book with all of my greatest hits from saying “hello, friend!” in chats!

Eno Sarris: Best-seller.

EC: Tanner Roark vs. Rich Hill for game 2 of the NLDS. Baseball is weird.

Eno Sarris: Just like we drew it up.

Bill: Rank in a keep forever league: Rodon, R. Iglesias, Taillon. Thanks!

Eno Sarris: That order. I might put Taillon ahead of Iglesias except that his arsenal is more balanced and he has a great fall back plan in closing.

dirk: Who ya got for the Jays vs Rangers bloodbath?

Eno Sarris: Talk shows.

Seabass: I’m going as Eno Sarris for Halloween. That way I can drink beer and play basketball all night

Eno Sarris: Gotta fro your hair out.

Art Vandelay: Saw Hotelier/Joyce Manor in the city last night. I had to bail from the front about halfway through JM’s set, I’m getting too old for that shit.

Eno Sarris: Damn. A few years out of college I went and saw Parliament on a week night and lasted till two and went home knowing that they were going to keep going another hour or two.

Minty: Just a video game, but you gotta check out Triple Play with Giambi on the cover. Through a glitch, Matt Perisho throws a 120 MPH sinker.

Eno Sarris: Man, will we see that in our lives?

jeff:

Eno Sarris: Shaking cameras are the best.

marc: Which of these keepers has more surplus value and is more valuable, Story as a 14th rounder or Dee Gordon as a 20th?

Eno Sarris: Dee’s year has me nervous. I’d rather have Story.

Seabass: My tisket or my tasket?

Eno Sarris: Put it in the basket.

Erik: How stereotypically Giants is it that Conor Gillaspie hits the game-winning home run?

Eno Sarris: So very Cody Ross.

Doc Gooden: Do Gsellman or Lugo have mid-rotation futures or are they back-end/swing types?

Eno Sarris: I like Lugo better.

Blizz Jackson: Any of these guys more than back-end/meh types: Tyler Anderson, German Marquez, Shipley, Clevinger, Cody Reed, Strahm, Brock Stewart? Any excite you?

Eno Sarris: Brock Stewart has a high spin rate fastball, a good change, slider, good velo. I like him best. Anderson might be okay.

Cubs Playoff Roster: Cubs have to set their playoff roster by tomorrow morning. Seems like one of the four following are going to be kept off: LaStella, Coghlan, Szczur, and Almora. Who do you think is left off?

Eno Sarris: One of the two center fielders.

GABFwoohoo: Headed out to GABF this weekend…first time. Hoping that an extremely unbridled passion and enthusiasm to try everything doesn’t lead to the wheels flying off after the first 72 minutes…

Eno Sarris: start with the sessions!

v2micca: I think it am suffering from recency bias, but the NL wildcard game struck me as one of the better postseason pitching duels in a while. Where does it rate for you?

Eno Sarris: Man if only Thor coulda gone nine, imagine heading to extras after 18 scoreless of those two.

Blizz Jackson: Does A.J. Reed hit like he’s capable of next season? Or is he on the Singleton path to ignominy and cake?

Eno Sarris: His problems aren’t as big as Singleton’s. I think he’ll K less eventually and if he can hit for that power he showed in the minors, be a decent first baseman.

NeedHope: I’m a big Mets fan and after last night I needed to start looking forward to the offseason and 2017 to deal with it. What do you think the Mets should do in the offseason?

Eno Sarris: Pitchers get healthy, convince Yo to come back, figure out what to do with Walker (QO IMO), look for little bargains for depth, think about infield defense a little more.

JWBlue: What exactly makes Madison Bumgarner so tough? Is his cutter the most underrated pitch in baseball? It doesn’t generate an inordinate number of swings and misses but it might be right up there with generating soft contact.

Eno Sarris: He’s like John Lester — everything comes out of the same slot, looks the same, and then changes after the batter has decided to swing. In his case it’s a benefit that his curve doesn’t drop ten inches. It needs to look like his cutter for longer.

Blizz Jackson: Yulieski Gurriel’s K rate is pretty awesome, how do you see his season playing out next year as he becomes acclimated to MLB?

Eno Sarris: why didn’t he K less in the minors? I guess it was just such a tiny sample… It’s all a tiny sample. I do think he can be a league average bat at the very least.

Pretty Tony: Talib QuaaLUDES

Bork: I prefer the beauty of Ubaldo vs EE

jwblue: Is this working? Usually I receive a confirmation my message was received.

Eno Sarris: we riding high

Ronnie: Dylan Bundy made 1.8 million this year in the last season of the MLB contract he signed after being drafted. He has two years before Arby’s kicks in so do the O’s cut his pay because they can these next two years or do Angelos & company act more diplomatically?

Eno Sarris: They will cut his pay for sure. Better do that before the Arby’s hits the gut.

rustydude: What’s the deal with MLB not completing a deal with Comcast for participating as a pay tv partner in their post season tv streaming subscription? Do you know the back story?

Eno Sarris: So annoying.

JT: Does Familia giving up the homerun last night negate the progress that could have been made in bullpen management based on the Britton decision?

Eno Sarris: Not to me, not at all. Things happen. You plan for the meat of the situation. The meat of the situation with Ubaldo vs Edwing was meatballs. Familia wins that battle with Gillaspie at least 80 times out of a 100, no?

Carl: Whats the current SABR stance on some players consistantly doing worse or better in Clutch situations? Exists or nah?

JT: Beer question: Does the exclusivity of New Glarus in WI help or hurt it’s business? I feel like I’d be less likely to have it each time I go to Wisconsin if it was more widely available.

Eno Sarris: It happens in a given year, but I haven’t seen any evidence that it keeps hapening to the same people year to year.

Eno Sarris: New Glarus: helps, I think. Look at Russian River. So much hype factor.

The Lure of the Animal: ICYMI, August discussed whips, chains, and Kiermaier’s endowment during his two chats this week. Thoughts?

Eno Sarris: Kiermaier is so very dreamy up top, know nothing about down low.

Blizz Jackson: Can Hyun-Soo Kim hit with more power next year or is what we see is what we get?

Eno Sarris: Maybe a little bit more. He’s so oppo until he gets that one pitch to pull.

Section 118: Oakland will have a sneaky good rotation next year

Eno Sarris: I love Cotton. I like Manaea. Sonny could get it back. And they have like eight guys for the back two.

botchatheny : how much more angry would you be if the dickhead fan threw a pliny the elder on the field?

Eno Sarris: well it would be glass and I was pretty mad

Robert: Now that the Braves manager job is basically down to Snitker and Bud Black, do you have any opinion on who they should hire?

Eno Sarris: I like Black. I think he’s very good at people managing. I don’t know about the rest. Managers are impossible. Did I mention I have an ALMoY vote?

Kenny: Which one do I keep in a 20-team dynasty- Greg Bird, Ender Inciarte or Yuli Gurriel?

Eno Sarris: One of the first two and I like Bird.

Chicken Stanley: What’s the secret to getting rid of your B.O.?

Eno Sarris: Work out more, shower more, deodorize more?

Celtic1888: I felt that was the best playoff pitching duel since Gm 7 1991. It lived up to the hype.

Eno Sarris: It really was beautiful.

Bruce: How do you like the Giants chances vs. the Cubs?

Eno Sarris: Cubs are one of the best teams I’ve ever seen. Giants have more flaws. Who knows.

Guest: can we stop calling the wild card game a “round” and start thinking of it as a glorified tiebreaker?

Eno Sarris: It’s a play-in game! I really like cutting a week or two from Spring and making it at least a three-game series.

The Kid: No question here. I just want to point something out. I believe it was his second to last start, Kershaw was mowing (per usual) but he walked a guy, his tenth BB of the season. Dude was INCENSED. I know sometimes that we got lost in the beauty of Kershaw’s numbers, and rightfully so, but how great is it that we get to watch him pitch?

Eno Sarris: I wondered inside my head if it had something to do with dropping down the arm angle at all. Seems a little risky.

Robert Woldegiorgis: I want to learn more about Asian baseball (specifically NPB/KBO). what do I do and who do I follow?

Eno Sarris: @jballAllen @mykbo @npbtracker @yakyunightowl

Guest: As much as I beef with the one-game setup, I watched both of these wild card games. I’ll probably only otherwise watch playoff baseball until my team wins or is eliminated.

Eno Sarris: I guess the win or die thing is compelling, but it just really ups the luck factor to an absurd level.

rustydude: Best hurricane warning? Perhaps… “Remember folks, coconuts become flying cannonballs”

Eno Sarris: Gotta love the people drinking on the beach right now.

Guest: Jeff predicted last night that BumBum will go in Game 2 on short rest and again on Game 5. As a Cubs fan, should I be pleased or terrified?

Erik: How much will Bumgarner be itching to go out on two days rest in game 2? If anyone can handle being abused like an early 1900s pitcher it’s him, right?

Eno Sarris: I think it’s a bit much.

Sammy: What’s your favorite Sammy Sosa moment? Gotta be pulling out the flag after the homer post 9/11. Sammy the goat

Eno Sarris: Every. Goddamn. Hop.

JT: I feel like the Mets and Cubs have taught us something something about developing teams.

Eno Sarris: Maybe, but it’s certainly not the same thing.

CamdenWarehouse: Is it too soon to ask what should the Marlins plans be now?

Eno Sarris: It’s sad, but true that their team took a solid hit in terms of competitive window. Looking at their depth chart… dammit. It’s too soon.

Miketron: I remember removing bone spurs could lead to TJ. Should we be worried about Matz since he is getting his gone?

Eno Sarris: What people don’t remember about Matz is that we’ve always been worried about Matz. He’s been injured early and often.

Art Vandelay: Please rank these pitchers to keep for next year: Archer, Rodon, Reyes, Verlander, Quintana

Eno Sarris: Verlander Archer Q Reyes

Sung Min Kim: you Japandroids guy?

Eno Sarris: You go see them last night? I know they’re on the east coast playing right now. I do like them

Eno Sarris:

Sailor Jerry: Actually just remembered! Have you ever researched what causes certain batters to have larger platoon splits than others? Do stance and location in the box affect it? Swing plane? Or is it just a natural sort of thing?

Eno Sarris: I think it has to do with eyes, but that sounds like a fun ‘big piece’ to do.

Jimbo: Is playing daily fantasy during the playoffs a fool’s errand?

Eno Sarris: Not enough selection to separate yourself from the pack, I’d say.

JT: I’ve had Jason Heyward on my bench for the best part of 5 years now in a dynasty.

Will he ever figure it out, or do I own Aaron Hicks or Lastings Milledge, and I’m just being stubborn about it?

Eno Sarris: In fantasy terms maybe, but in real life he’s better than those guys. Which makes it harder to make a decision. I don’t think he was particularly unlucky and he’s hitting too many ground balls for my taste. I doubt there’s much more than .275/.350/.420 in there any more, or 15/10 type fantasy numbers.

Guest: The sessions don’t kick in the first 72 minutes; the heavy hitters do. Beer festivals are a nightmare (on the liver).

Eno Sarris: So backwards. I covered a beer week in San Francisco and of course Pliny the Younger opened up the fest, a frigging triple IPA.

Miketron: Do you think Edwin Diaz is more likely to be a lights-out closer or transition back to starting?

Eno Sarris: Either way, he’s worth owning, like an Iglesias. H was so good as a closer… I think they keep him there.

EC: Scherzer v. Kershaw WHO YA GOT?

Eno Sarris: Man I wish I knew what was going on in Harper’s shoulder/neck and Murphy’s butt. Because if those things were in good shape, I’d take the Nationals lineup… then again both of those guys are lefties so… Kershaw.

Another Green World: Can a team pay a player to exercise his opt-out clause? For example, could the Dodgers pay Kasmir $8M to exercise his clause and go away?

Eno Sarris: If he’s into it, you can do anything. There aren’t explicit trade kickers in all contracts but if there are ways for players to profit off of trades. Remember that we don’t even know the whole story about Lucroy and the Indians, I’d guess.

Crawnik: Joe Panik had a really up and down (mostly down) year, but it seemed like his line drive rate and exit velo were the same as always, at least when it comes to the eyeball test. Does he rebound next year?

Eno Sarris: If you look at his career numbers, with a normal BABIP, he’s a .280/.340/.400 guy. I think that’s about right, and useful while young and playing good defense cheaply.

ottoneu: To add to that question: what are the Astros gonna do with Bregman and Gurriel?

Eno Sarris: Gurriel at first base is my guess.

Mark: Disagree. Start with the heavy hitters while you can still taste. Move to weird/experimental stuff later because often they are bad and you won’t want to remember them.

Eno Sarris: Is the the thought. Plus, if the really good stuff kicks early, you really have no choice.

JT: Who are a couple three good guys to sell off (even a year early) in dynasties? No one wants to be stuck holding Tex or CC or A-Rod when the music stops.

Eno Sarris: Pedroia, Hanley (too late?), Adrian Gonzo (too late?), Ian Kinsler, Joey Votto (too early?)

Red Warrior: needs LUDES badly

klof: Over/under on benches cleared in the TEX-TOR series?

Jimi: The marlins plans should probably be evacuating Florida at the moment.

Eno Sarris: Phew, just barely managed that one, people.

Ampersand: Somehow some of the Fortunate Islands with Grapefruit Zest made its way to DC. How excited should I be?

Eno Sarris: I’m a big fan.

ottoneu: But the whole “win or go home” is the best part. I think it is good to put the Wild Card teams through that. Win your division and you get to play in a full series. Playoffs are already long enough.

Eno Sarris: That’s true, about the length of the playoff. It just seems so… un-baseball-like.

Trevor: May be in the wrong place for this question, but – I won my Yahoo league and wound up being placed in this Contest of Champions thing they have, which looks like a daily fantasy tournament of sorts. As someone who has never done daily before, what’s my approach here?

Eno Sarris: my DFS 101, quick: if there are two pitcher slots, get one stud, and then find the cheap pitching matchup you like. Look for a couple cheapish righty middle infielders (shortstops) facing a lefty that doesn’t scare you as much as other pitchers. Ditto on catcher, as cheap as possible. Spend your money on 1b/OF/3b, with platoon advantage and in a hot/good park if possible.

The Boat: Does Cashner get a SP job, or is he forced into the pen? I think he’d be good there.

Eno Sarris: His secondary stuff is not great, but he’ll definitely get one more chance at starting is my guess.

Socrates: Have you ever met Valencia in the clubhouse? Thoughts on this whole DFA thing? Seems absurd to me given his production.

Eno Sarris: I understand the stuff against Butler a bit more, he’s definitely like a meddling uncle that everyone rolls their eyes at. Valencia seems garden variety young jock type. But there’s stuff I don’t know, apparently, and I guess people don’t love him. It’s not good to punch the meddling uncle either way.

Nelson: Is pitching 2 days in a row pitching on no days rest, or on 1 days rest?

Eno Sarris: No days.

Zonk: Manfred is apparently wrapping up his investigation of the Cardinals hack thing. I would anticipate hardly any punishment, based on Mozielak’s denials of knowledge, and Correa being in jail. What do you think?

Eno Sarris: It’ll be weird that baseball’s internal punishment will be a slap on the wrist for a thing that put someone in jail, but that’s my guess too.

Sam Dyson: Last 5 years, 5 different Saves leaders…have you ever do a write up of how the closer positions carries over the off-season?

Eno Sarris: I’ve done a few pieces over the years, and the summary is that about one-third of the closer population loses their job in a given year, and that very few things predict closer change, and that velocity and strikeout rate are right behind usage as the only (light) predictors. Bad teams get save chances, but runs scored and good bullpens create more save chances.

Guest: During Reed’sinning, there were three or four missed strike calls. I was livid(a Mets fans). My Phillies friends were taunting me saying that’s in Rene Rivera, not the UMP. What say you? Umps fault or rivera?

Eno Sarris: He stabbed one, but Belt took two pitches that were strikes, I thought, and I don’t think Rivera’s technique was terrible.

Nick: Was Cueto getting loose last night? I know I saw Romo in the bullpen, but was Boch potentially going to put Cueto in there at one point? I wonder what Buck thinks about that. I also wonder if Bochy is the greatest manager ever.

Eno Sarris: Samardzija on roster too… I think he was probably just stretching.

Dan: I’m breaking my beer diet this weekend. What is a beer I can get at Bevmo that will make this worth it?

Eno Sarris: Enjoy By Tangerine is out.

mike sixel: last week was the worst beer chat since I started tracking them….if you were visiting Boston and NH, where would you go?

Eno Sarris: Trillium, Night Shift, Jack’s Abby mostly.

Johnny5Alive: Im not even upset about the mets, does that make me a bad fan?

Eno Sarris: Given the season they had, it was an okay outcome. I mean, everyone got hurt.

Eno Sarris:

Ember: How do you think Villar will do next year?

Eno Sarris: I think he could hit .270 with 10 homers and 40 SB. Still pretty dang good.

Bases on Balks: What happened to the Giants in the second half? Their Run Differential was positive, but their record was terrible.

Eno Sarris: Belt, Posey, Crawford all went in the tank. Belt and Crawford had been playing above projections so you could call it regression, but all three went into the tank at the same time.

Dan the Mets Fan: Why Lugo over Gsellman?

Eno Sarris: His fastball velocity is a little better, his standout pitch is better.

Enzo: Your thoughts on Daniel Norris? A 2/3 starter some day, health permitting?

Eno Sarris: Yeah he made huge strides this year, like the new slider.

Kristen: Derek Holland left off the roster vs. TOR – a sign that he has reached the end in TEX?

Eno Sarris: I was never a big fan. No third pitch, as a lefty, that’s tough.

Dan: How old were you when you started earning $ to write about baseball?

Eno Sarris: 28.

Dock Ellis: How hard should I try to go to GABF this weekend?

Eno Sarris: One year I’ll set my whole year up to go.

just another bad dynasty manager: Trumbo’s gone right? I mean DH types aren’t that hard to find and the Orioles are talking to Bourn about his staying because of his better D in RF and his baserunning skills.

Eno Sarris: I don’t get the Bourn thing, but they O’s do a good job of finding Trumbos every year.

wombat: Thoughts on this idea — MLB knocks 2 weeks off of September as regular season play, turned the Wild Card into a 3 game series, and then played the rest of the playoffs as normal. Things might actually end while the weather was still warm.

Eno Sarris: I like it, and the money from the playoffs would give them money to make up for lost spring time. Players and writers would love it. Doubt it happens.

JoeB: Urias or Reyes as keeper for next year? Salary is the same.

Eno Sarris: Urias. Doesn’t have the command issue Reyes does.

Eric: What do you expect Cotton’s line to look like next year?

Eno Sarris: 3.5/1.2+/8+k9/3-bb9

Bostonian: I approve of your beer choices, Eno. If NH, also check out Stone Face Brewery.

Johnny5Alive: i htought gsellman had the better fastball but that lugo had the more elite pitch (curve)

Eno Sarris: Oh right why did I think Gsellman’s velo was lower. Weird. Still, I like that curve much more than any of GS’ secondaries, and the fastball velo is not that different.

The Decedent Moose: Christopher Devenski of the Astros. Does he find a place in the rotation or bullpen?

Eno Sarris: Rotation for me. Was throwing third pitch more often later in year.

shaemoose: Is Zobrist a 42 year old productive player? He has had a career year at age 35

Eno Sarris: He is the model for us to believe in Votto, with his elite swing rates and discipline. But I think I’d want more athleticism to believe in 42 years old productivity.

Russ: I get the people and players like Bud Black, but the guy is 649-713 with NO PLAYOFF APPEARANCES. How does track record not outweigh that here?

Eno Sarris: Those teams didn’t have a lot of talent though?

Merv Throneberry : Gsellman or Lugo next year…or both?

Eno Sarris: could be both. Even assuming Matz and Harvey come back, that’s three up front to start the season. Colon’s not signed.

Uninvited Guest: Considering the market for SPs what do you think Brett Anderson gets this year?

Eno Sarris: Rich Hill special? 1/6? 1/10?

Bork: I dunno if this counts as a lude, but the beer can guy has been top national news in Canada for the past few days, including today. We’re that boring.

Eno Sarris: To be fair, that guy was a legendary-level dick.

Eno Sarris:

Eno Sarris: had to mellow

Joe: In a H2H league that counted batting Ks, would you keep Puig (OF) or Bregman (only 3B) at the same price as your last keeper?

Eno Sarris: I like Puig but Bregman is 22 and should cut his K rate some next year.

Sirras: I had a friend argue that Colon is too expensive and the Mets should just roll with Harvey, Wheeler, Matz, Thor, deGrom, Lugo, Gsellman. Am I crazy to still want Bart back?

Eno Sarris: I think they will roll with that group.

Fart_Balloon: JORGE. CANTU.

klof: Where would the three games be played in a 3 game wildcard series? Home-Home-NEUTRAL PARK???

Eno Sarris: The WC1 can be the home team…

Johnny5Alive: you give bart a QO?

Eno Sarris: Too much IMO.

Johnny5Alive: you move grandy on the final year so that you can play conforto?

Eno Sarris: I love Conforto. Anyone signing up for Grandy? If they are, I’d do that.

Zach: On a Brett Anderson contract note… Neal Huntington is totally going to sign him, right? He can’t resist the Brett Anderson’s of the world. My God, he’s going to sign the s**t out of Brett Anderson.

Eno Sarris: oh yeah baby

Eno Sarris: “Useful when in” is a strategy.

FireDrayton: Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, Devenski, Musgrove seems like a pretty decent rotation for the Astros next season, right? Makings of a division winner considering the offensive core?

Eno Sarris: I still feel like they need to sign a top end guy. Since that’s not out there, I think they should enter the Sale/Teheran/whatever sweepstakes.

Johnny5Alive: what if you move duda and move conforto to first

Eno Sarris: Duda selling really low and Conforto’s D is better than that.. what about Bruce at first?

Corey: Do the Jays re-sign either of EE Bautista? What say you?

Eno Sarris: I feel like the poor year made Bautista more affordable and he’s very close to the heart of that team. Shapiro makes things a wild card, will he just let them all walk?

Fart_Balloon: Clay Buchholz looks like Reek from GoT. Reek is the probable starter for Game 3 on Saturday.

Joe: Based on your Correa article, where does he get drafted and where does he end up in terms of value in 2017?

Eno Sarris: 3rd-5th, returns 1st-2nd round value, but I guess I’m the high man.

Joe: With all these middle infield values, should we just punt on 2B/SS/MI until very late?

Eno Sarris: Depends on league. I think Correa might .285/25/20 next year, and that plays everywhere.

klof: You stashing Pablo anywhere for next year? I have him for $3 and I’m not over the moon but it seems like good value if he can do anything at all really.

Eno Sarris: AL-O, sure. 18+, yeah. He’s bounced back before.

Robert NYC: Gotta pick 3 to save from this group in Dynasty League: Arrieta, Velasquez, Gausman, Stroman, Manaea. Leaning Jake, Gausman and Manaea, as VV injury history worries me. What do you think?

Eno Sarris: Tough one because VV per inning is better, has better upside at least. Everyone’s going to have different ones here, but I think I go Arrieta, VV, STroman.

Eno Sarris: Stroman really showed something going for the Ks and he has Manaea-like floor IMO.

Guest: With the homer spike this year, have steals increased in value in fantasy because they’re more scarce?

Eno Sarris: Yeah we gotta look at that, but I think it has to be the case.

Eno Sarris: Okay I have to open up the proverbial doors and figure out what’s going on. Oh yeah, that ESPN piece. I gotta go!!!

Eno Sarris: More baseball tonight!!!