Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/21/16

Eno Sarris: I’ll be here in a few. Here’s a good song.

Eno Sarris:

vader: it’s time, it’s time!

Zorak: Kershaw is gonna be suuuuuuuuper expensive to keep this year, like $70 ($300 budget). But jeez man, he’s been my anchor! Do I really risk throwing him back and trying to get him at auction? I’m keeping Lester and Stroman as well.

Eno Sarris: Geez. Projections, WAR, everything has him as clearly the best pitcher. I’ve seen a $60 challenge bid from Lawr Michaels in an NL-only league that went unchallenged, and that was in a $260 budget. I think I’d throw him back, personally. What the most expensive pitcher last year?

Jake: Sup Eno

Eno Sarris: sup

F Sherf: What’s your thoughts on Xander this year ?? Any power growth??

Eno Sarris: Here’s the thing. I think he has to change his swing some to get more power. Here’s the other thing. He’s changed his swing before and hits the ball hard. Just into the ground. That’s the bad thing.

RotoLando: What is a white noise machine, and why is it so highly recommended by new parents?

Eno Sarris: Sounds like a highway turned down a bit. I don’t even know if it works, I just turn it on for the baby every night…

Drew: Dodgers basically got Kendrick, E. Hernandez and Barnes for Dee Gordon. Kendrick is gone and Gordon was good last year, Hernandez seems buried as depth. Are we almost to the point where we are reaching “Miami won the Dee Gordon” trade levels, even without knowing what Barnes’ career will look like. Also, Heaney is meh right now.

Eno Sarris: They did get that year of Kendrick, and we haven’t seen next year’s version of Dee, but it certainly looks that way right now.

Guest: The other day someone asked a question about the 2008 Blue Jays being historic underachievers. I looked at the Astros run differential and BaseRuns this season, and I was shocked at how the 2015 Astros actually under performed even more. Should that be encouraging for 2016 or a red flag?

Eno Sarris: I bet a ton of those teams had terrible bullpens, so I think that was what the Giles trade was about.

Chad: Velasquez or Daniel Norris for future value? also will Velasquez get a rotation spot this yr in PHI?

Eno Sarris: I like Velasquez more. Been trying to acquire him in a few leagues. I don’t think he’ll necessarily start the year in the bigs, but I do think he’ll finish it.

The Power Toad: I am worried about Arrieta’s workload last year and am seriously considering trading him no to improve my lineup in my dynasty league. Am I being paranoid?

Eno Sarris: I usually jump at any chance to trade pitching for hitting, and I guess Arrieta’s new mechanics might mean he’s going to stay healthier, but we can’t forget he was once oft hurt. I would do it. No time like the present.

Jake: Do you ever feel less creative than you were when you were younger? I’m getting into my mid 20s, not old at all, and I already feel a lot of the things I used to enjoy doing (writing mostly), it’s just not as dynamic, or as easy to make something new. Is this nostalgia, or am I not alone here?

Eno Sarris: As you get older, you read more, see more, acquire more, and know more often what has been done before. So when you were young you were like I’LL WRITE A BOOK ABOUT KIDS IN NEW YORK IT’LL BE VIGNETTES AND MELANCHOLIC AND SO AWESOME and then later you’re like, yeah Kids was pretty good.

Eno Sarris: But that should also mean that *what* you create once you break through is better, more sophisticated, and hopefully more lasting.

The Cincinnati Kid: Are you “in” on Max Kepler or are you “out” (like Kiley was.) His 2015 and rest of his career are quite different. What does his peak look like to you?

Eno Sarris: FIrst: I’m German. He’s German. I might be blinded by this and biased. BUT. He has always had great plate discipline and contact skills. I love plate discipline and contact skills. I might be blinded by this and biased. BUT. He’s 22 years old and just showed some natural power growth in his first taste of Double-A. I love natural power growth in first tastes of a new level. I might be

Bowie: Does Sano get 3b eligibility ?? Are u buying his top 5 power in MLb

Eno Sarris: No. Yes!

Q-Ball: Should the White Sox be considering Jimmy Rollins as a bargain SS option? Rollins is getting old, but did have a crazy low BABIP last year, and still plays a decent SS.

Eno Sarris: I bet they are talking to him. Then Tim Anderson and Saladino can take his job if they are actually, you know, better than him.

2-D: How much do you think Dexter Fowler’s defense is holding his market back? He doesn’t have great instincts and has one of the worst arms in the league.

Eno Sarris: I’m sure it is. You’d think that the Mets would have been in on him since they signed a meh-D CF, or the Giants…

vader: where do you think matt carpenter should hit in the StL lineup?

Eno Sarris: Two or three.

BigBopper: Strasburg is gonna be awesome this year and I should try to acquire him in a keeper league where little elite pitching will be available in the auction, right?

Eno Sarris: Just talk about his injuries so the price is low.

Bork: As a Jays fan the loss of Kawasaki hit me more than the loss of Price 🙁

Eno Sarris: Fun little dude.

Zonk: What are the biggest holes that have yet to be addressed by contending teams? Thinking like “Angels-LF”, “Cleveland-3B”, that type of thing.

Eno Sarris: Angels LF for sure. There’s nothing as glaring as that.

Tim: What are your thoughts about a bounce back for Wil Myers? It seems like forever ago he was the next hot prospect.

Eno Sarris: I’m into it. Those wrists are terrible, so maybe not. But one year he’ll be healthy all year, and it will look nice. Still young.

Eno Sarris: I enjoy this

Eno Sarris:

John: Take Mookie Betts and Noah Syndergaard. Tell me how they will finish, fantasy wise, in 2016 using the performances of players in 2015. (ex. Mookie will give you McCutcheon 2015 numbers/ Noah will give you deGrom 2015 numbers)

Eno Sarris: It won’t look the same on the field, but I bet Syndergaard will do something like Chris Archer did last year. Same on the other side, I think Betts will do something like Lo Cain did, in his own way.

Q-Ball: ZIPS doesn’t love the Cardinals that much. Cards have terrific depth, but seem to lack elite talent these days. They may not spend their FA budget this offseason, based on offers they made that were rejected. What say you?

Eno Sarris: I wanted them to get one elite player and they did not. They could do it in-season, but that means they have to be good and someone with a good bat has to be bad enough to sell that player.

PS: I LOVE Joe Ross this year (both for fantasy purposes and hoping my team miraculously trades for him). What are your projections for his output this year?

Eno Sarris: I have no problems with him. Looks like a carbon copy of his brother, and there’s a little bit of upside in that changeup.

JT: Hi Eno, love the podcast! Who are a few prospects that you don’t see anyone mentioning that could blow up this season?

Eno Sarris: I’m not great at knowing what everyone is talking about, but if Brad Zimmer figures one thing out, that outfield ahead of him is terrible. He’ll get a shot. Anthony Alford is different now. I actually really like Jorge Lopez and the Brewers need pitchers.

Jake: Barring the signing of Yoenis Cespedes on a pillow contract (lol), does this year give players a legitimate complaint against Mets ownership? This is literally the best possible time for them to have gone for it. If they’d added half as many wins as CHC, they’d be a 92 win team.

Eno Sarris: I don’t hate the moves they made, but they are Oakland moves, not New York moves…

SF Dave: First Chat in a while, too bad it’s a sick kid that gives me the time, but it just might be totally worth playing playdoh, barbie, paw patrol and legos to spend the next 1+ hours here while she watches Peanuts

Eno Sarris: Know all about that move.

Art Vandelay: 1:46? Why is the chat in GMT-3? Are you in Brazil?

Eno Sarris: well someone must have made a mistake. I’ll check with interns.

Eno Sarris: *kicks desk

Jason: With the Seattle meetup tomorrow, I was wondering if you had a list of planned future meetups or if not, are there cities in which you would consider holding meetups.

Eno Sarris: I fly by the seat of my pants! I’m in Seattle to interview Kyle Boddy at Driveline, so I’m doing a meetup. I do one every year in Chicago, and should do SF again. San Diego and LA are easy enough for me, and I know we’ll do one this year in New York. But I’m probably the most social of the FG crew, so I guess it sorta depends on me.

Bruce: I bought my wife Father John Misty Tickets for her birthday, but she doesnt really know who he is. How do I get her to learn some of the songs while keeping the concert tickets a surprise?

Eno Sarris: Might be the best way is pandora, so that not every song is actually him? If you don’t ever pandora, I guess a new playlist with 40% Misty is about right.

Pete: Eno, i have five dominant hitters. I’m also keeping Kluber and bumgarner. Should my eighth keeper be Jacob deGrom (2nd round) or Freddie Freeman (10th round)? 96 players are kept in this league so a 2nd round pick isn’t truly a 2nd rounder. What do you think?

Eno Sarris: Freeman probably has more surplus value, but damn if I wouldn’t keep those three pitchers.

Shawn: Stayed home with my sick 14 month old yesterday – took an afternoon trip to Treehouse – I got beer, she got her nap- good use of sick day or best use of a sick day?

Eno Sarris: Best

Bruce: Domingo Sanatana or Aaron “right thurrr” Althurrrrr for my last OF keeper?

Eno Sarris: Althurrrrrr probably has less talent, but more opportunity. I take Santana.

Guest: Eno! I’m heading to LA this weekend. What are widely-available beers that I should be on the lookout for to bring back? I know to keep my eye out for Russian River, etc, but are there any ones that are pretty easy I should bring back?

Eno Sarris: Modern Times (City of the Sun, Fortunate Islands, Mega Fortunate Islands), El Segundo (Mayberry, Hop Tanker) leap to mind. Dunno how much The Bruery you see. Pizza Port has some good beers in cans.

Nelson: No no no to the white noise machine, unless you bring it EVERYWHERE you go, your kid wont ever fall asleep without it. Like a pacifier.

Eno Sarris: Hasn’t been my experience, but I’m not touting my experience with kids sleep to anyone. Just got the 15-month-old through the night.

Desmond : The numbers love the dodgers no matter what huh? Case in point justin tuner In no way is he better than matt Duffy right? How is a young low upside player like Duffy not on the level of a 32 year old zero upside turner other then one plays for dodgers the other doesn’t huh?

Eno Sarris: Matt Duffy is projected for more overall wins than Justin Turner, based on superior defense. Turner has more power and patience, which are important.

Craig in Chicago: Why isn’t Avisail for Jay Bruce happening? What am I missing here?

Eno Sarris: Handedness? Also, they may want to give Garcia one more chance..

The_Oncoming_Ace: Do you do Ottoneu? I’m looking into playing this year, especially if it has more advanced stats than your typical league.

Eno Sarris: I do, and it’s great, and it’s tough. They have 5×5, 4×4, SABR points, and FG points. The last two are basically baed on wOBA and FIP.

Popup Babip: Brad Miller given the starting SS gig in TB can do what this year? .250/.320/.410 15HR/60R/60RBI/15SB reasonable?

Eno Sarris: Under on the SLG, but if he plays every day, over on R/RBI and the rest look reasonable. I do think they want him to play almost everyday.

Craig in Chicago: Also, I saw Foals open up for Silversun Pickups. Foals might have been better?

Eno Sarris: I thought so when I saw Foals play three bands before PIckups.

Zorak: Most expensive pitcher last year was Felix at $58, priciest player was McCutcheon who went for $61 at auction. I’m mostly a stars-and-scrubs waiver wire troll, but I’m leaning towards tossing him back and trying to get him at auction, if nothing else to reset his escalators (would go up to $95 for 2017 if I kept keeping him)

Eno Sarris: I bet you get Kershaw for 65

Jake: In Sullivan’s recent article on projections, he hinted that good relievers will let a team beat its WAR projection. I’ve seen FG writers hint at that before, is it worth adjusting reliever WAR slightly upwards?

Eno Sarris: There might be something going on there, but in order to do it, you want to do it systematically in a way that grows from research.

Shawn : Working on completing my first beer trade. Maine Dinner is the prize. Have you had it? Thoughts?

Eno Sarris: I’m in the middle of trading for my first Dinner! You should get a good haul for that. I traded a Russian River sour and a Hardywood Gingerbread Stout, plus some other good stuff.

to jake re: getting old: Well, birthdays are merely symbolic of how another year has gone by and how little we’ve grown. No matter how desperate we are that someday a better self will emerge, with each flicker of the candles on the cake, we know it’s not to be, that for the rest of our sad, wretched pathetic lives, this is who we areto the bitter end. Inevitably, irrevocably; happy birthday? No such thing.

SF Dave: I might have a problem.

Bork: I too enjoy a big box of text telling me the content was blocked by my work filter.

Eno Sarris: Man barely got that interlude together.

Nelson: When do player caps go up?

Eno Sarris: When I finish editing these damn things! Sometime early next month.

Steve: It seems like there is a lot of hate on Avi Garcia. I don’t get it. He just finished his first complete season. Do you agree with a lot of writers and fans that the White Sox should move on?

Eno Sarris: I had hope that he would grow into the power the scouts saw, but he really hasn’t shown it at all yet. There were a few more fly balls, sorta, but he can’t even capitalize on his speed and his plate approach is atrocious.

anon: What new technology do you think will change our lifestyle in 2016?

Eno Sarris: we’ve been waiting on wearable for ever, but I’m seeing the watches now, and there’s some chance that changes things. (less eye to eye contact because they stealing glances at their watches, less sex, fewer babies, there goes society)

The Cincinnati Kid: Last year it seemed like a major prospect was getting called-up (and performing) every week…will 2016 be the same or did ’15 run the well dry a bit

Eno Sarris: I bet we take a step back. A lot of the guys at the top right now are super young and not ready. Think of Ozzie Albies in Atlanta. Probably a top ten prospect. There’s no way they call him up, right?

Eno Sarris: RIGHT??

Craig in Chicago: Erik Johnson put up a .7 WAR in 6 starts, last year. DCameron just wrote that he “sucks”. Your thoughts?

Eno Sarris: good movement on his pitches, but bad command, bad velo, and doesn’t trust his change. Yeah I think he’s not good.

Q-Ball: Is there a home for Howie Kendrick? Other than maybe the D-Backs? I can’t think of another, can you?

Eno Sarris: Royals? Padres? And by Padres I mean, any other team that decides he’s too much of a value to leave out there.

Patrick J: During his career, Votto has a 205 wRC+ and 1.191 OPS in high leverage situations (best in baseball by a lot). Crazy that people think he’s not “clutch” in Cincy, right?

Eno Sarris: RBI pretty powerful hold on our culture.

anon: Dodgers have something like 9 ex GMs working for them. No question, I just find that to crazy.

Eno Sarris: And read my conversation with Nick Ennis about that. He specifically talks about the possibility of having too many voices in the room.

Cardsjason: Eno! What is your opinion on aging/cellaring beers as opposed to drinking fresh?

Eno Sarris: Drink almost everything but Imp stouts fresh, and even those, there are a few that age and do interesting things, but not all.

Steve: Should 2015 be the new baseline for Manny Machado or do you think he’ll regress?

Eno Sarris: I can’t believe he’ll keep stealing bases like that.

Craig in Chicago: The odds Tim Anderson puts up a 2 WAR season, this year?

Eno Sarris: Low for me. No patience, not much power, so it would have to be d-driven.

Zorak: I mean honestly, I’m not sure how much I want Cespedes on the Mets, but I reeeeeeeeaaaaaaallllyyyyyyy don’t want to see Cespedes on the Nationals. Which is why I know it’s gonna happen. Why can’t he go to some far off place like Anaheim? Why do the Wilpons hate me so much???

Eno Sarris: The Wilpons love themselves that much.

mtsw: A buddy of mine is quitting his job and persuing a career as a brewer. What city should he move to for the best opportunities?

Eno Sarris: I looked at this by population density, brewing density, and per capita income, and somewhere between Bakersfield and Los Angeles — maybe even the Valley — is the best spot in America. LA in general could float another few breweries.

Popup Babip: most likely to still be closing effectively come september: Glen Perkins (health risk), Hector Rondon (papelboned via trade acquisition risk). And yes I use “papelboned” as a verb to describe situations like Storen getting papelboned by the papelbon acquisition last year and Andrew Miller got papelboned by the Chapman acqusition.

Eno Sarris: Closers are impossible. Rondon could get papelboned by Strop, I know that’s incorrect usage but I wanted to write it. I’d just go with Perkins.

Biscuit: Eno I’m half way through the sour sisters, having tried Lolita and Halia. Both delicious…curious as to your favorite of the bunch!

Eno Sarris: Halia but I love them all.

Hurtado: You well enough to drink tomorrow?

Eno Sarris: IM FIGHTING THIS WITH ALL I GOT.

Eno Sarris: It’s in me, but I wouldn’t say I have a cold yet. Five hours of sleep didn’t help, but as of now, yes.

Patrick: When you coming back to Boston? I want to buy you a delicious Trillium beer.

Eno Sarris: I want you to buy me a delicious Trillium, but I don’t know when.

SF Dave: Joe Kelly, headed for the Bullpen? Similar question. Kelly and Karns for Shark a fair trade?

Eno Sarris: Probably, and yeah I think I would take that deal. Shark not much older than Karns, in good park, more velocity, fewer health concerns.

Ryan: Pick two: Newcomb Berrios De Leon Snell

Eno Sarris: Berrios Snell

Eno Sarris: one second

Eno Sarris: just peed in the yard because it was closer than the toilet. for you.

some guy: Would you be buying or selling on these guys: Jorge Lopez, John Lamb, Mike Clevinger, Tyler Duffey, Chase Anderson.

Eno Sarris: buy, buy, sell, sell, hold.

Craig in Chicago: Cain > Betts

Eno Sarris: Disagree, particularly once health comes into play. Would do a prop bet on this.

Joe: Tell me why Kevin Gausman breaks out and becomes deGrom-lite this year.

Eno Sarris: He’s figuring out how to get pop-ups with his rising fastball, the curve is the best breaker he’s shown, and it’s time to poop or get off the potty.

Eno Sarris:

Curtis: Are Lamb and Eickhoff decent late round fliers for starts? anything exciting there?

Eno Sarris: Yes very much. Both have great movement and an elite pitch, good secondary pitch, and bad velocity. Eickhoff maybe better command, but Lamb is a lefty so his velocity closer to average.

Michael: Rasiel Iglesias or Luis Severino?

Eno Sarris: Severino

Biscuit: Can Zach Davies hold a rotation spot for the Crew all year?

Eno Sarris: no

Brendan: Tulo’s projections are blahhh. Frankly, not much better than Semien. In an AL-only where I have both should I trade Tulo as an elite player (even though he may not be any more)?

Eno Sarris: yes

Bret Levine: They moved Wil Myers to first base, perhaps to protect his wrist. What does this do to the Pads OF defense?

Eno Sarris: Improves it! And yeah, maybe that will help, since Myers has hurt them in the outfield before. But his mitts are so large, he may just not be able to avoid them.

SF Dave: Did you know you can burn 150 calories in an hour of banging your head on the wall?

Eno Sarris: useful knowledge.

Michael: 16team, 8 keeper league. Pujols or Kang?

Eno Sarris: Kang

Uncle grandfather: In defense of kids, I think there are a few things they have on adults: a keener and deeper sense of wonder, a sense of their own potential, and they share fewer of our biases.

Spicy Felix!: Eno is a meano beano wearing chinos, not jeanos. He doesnt like vino, just the beero. What a weirdo, yee know?

RotoLando: Club Foot, Cleft Palate, Wade Miley

Eno Sarris: Well that was delicious.

The Cincinnati Kid: Ignoring all formats, likely draft round, or team needs, is there a specific stat that you at first on projections for fantasy purposes? Hitters? Pitchers?

Eno Sarris: swinging strike rate, and a little bit for both, but for hitters, I’ll throw some ISO in.

Bork: Anthony Alford is pretty much the only Jays prospect left. HE BETTER BE AMAZING.

Eno Sarris: Hold him close Mark Shapiro.

Hannah Hochevar: More powerful endorsement of invisibility: You Won’t See Me (the Beetles) or You Can’t See Me (Tupac)?

Eno Sarris: Tupac more powerful to me. Just in terms of raw power. Also, can’t is a more powerful verb there.

Spicy Felix!: Eno i need hot takes

Spicy Felix!: Wheres the mad dog when you need him

Eno Sarris: no

SF Dave: Having a conversation with my league about robot umps calling balls and strikes. Your thoughts?

Eno Sarris: Do it. It didn’t ruin Tennis.

Q-Ball: According to Jon Lester, when the Cubs did their FA pitch to him in 2014, they showed him a projected 2016 lineup with Jason Heyward in CF. No way that’s true, is it? More than a year ahead, they are planning that exact move?

Eno Sarris: You gotta think that teams are looking at next year’s FA market. Projections are not great year to year, and worse two years out, but you still want to look.

The Cincinnati Kid: Pretend Profar can hit in Spring Training and at AAA, what do you see the Rangers doing with him this season?

Eno Sarris: Deshields and Moreland the week spots at positions where he could help. I bet they bring him up as an outfielder. With the arm, probably not a shortstop, unless that really comes back.

Bork: Does everyone on these chats have kids? I feel like I need to have a kid now.

Eno Sarris: ALL THE COOL PEOPLE ARE DOING IT

Dan the Mets Fan: Fowler a fit on the Mets still? Fits the depth strategy and they need another OF. Think he may sign for 2 or 3 years

Eno Sarris: yeah I mean DeAza can be a fifth outfielder lol

Chris: is Miguel Sano just a younger, black Crush Davis?

Eno Sarris: With better natural plate discipline, but not a bad comp.

GSon: Beer in a can that’s good.. didn’t think that was possible..

Eno Sarris: Travels better, keeps the beer fresher, and we usually pour into glasses, right? I think more and more cans coming.

jtt: Did you buy father john misty tickets for your wife? or for yourself…

pirates hurdles: For Bruce, buying your wife tickets to see someone she has never heard of for HER birthday isnt a very good idea.

Snarfle: My mother is a fish.

Eno Sarris: Well then. I will say this. I took my wife to a show that had CHVVVVVRCHES in it, and she doesn’t like them, and she didn’t hate them live and she had a good time.

JT: I saw your article on using K-BB% with adding popups. Could this be used to identify prospects that would fit this profile? Any idea where to get IFFB data for minor leagues?

Eno Sarris: I might want to redo that with PU/TBF, but yeah I think I can get my hands on that and look at the minor leagues.

BurleighGrimes: Shouldn’t the Mets be locking up the arb (and maybe first couple of post-arb) years of some of their young core? Harvey is most likely a goner, and Conforto is a Boras guy, but what about deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, d’Arnaud, etc.?

Eno Sarris: It’s riskier with pitchers than hitters, maybe?

ben: What closer can the cubs get for vogelbach and baez

Eno Sarris: If the Rays are bad this year, maybe one of those?

Bork: On the scale of drunken tattoo to condomless one night stand, how much will the Orioles regret signing Davis in a couple years?

Eno Sarris: They really deferred a lot of money and so maybe not a drunken racist tattoo, but still probably a drunk dolphin on the ankle tattoo.

Jong: Doing draft prep and need some late-round fliers. Can you rank Velasquez, Conley, Eickhoff? Anybody in that tier I should target?

Eno Sarris: Eickhoff, (Lamb), VV, Conley. Opportunity important, and the Fish are looking for another SP, maybe.

Formerly the Smasher: How come after 11 starts at age 33 everyone suddenly believes Happ doesn’t suck. He’s going to get torched in the ALE no?

Eno Sarris: He didn’t get TORCHED there last time, but sometimes a pitching mix clicks.

SF Dave: A. Garcia is almost free in my league (keep forever, no penalty, 840 players deep), but I would have to drop someone like Andriese, T. Wilson or Ryan Vogelsong. That’s kind of a no brainier, right?

Eno Sarris: yes do that

Juan Pablo Taquito: Is now the best time to trade Bogaerts or do you see him taking another step this year?

Eno Sarris: I’d hold. He’s young. He was the number one shortstop last year in 5×5, somewhat improbably given his stats, but still.

Compton: Can you guys just record a Sleeper/Bust podcast every day? I don’t care if you run out of material and it becomes you and Sporer talking about Bette Midler, I’d still be stoked to listen.

Eno Sarris: It’s a ton of work, but it’s super fun.

XD: Has a player ever called you out for saying his wrists were terrible?

Eno Sarris: Not yet. I did ask Myers if his big old hands had something to do with his injuries and he just looked puzzled.

Eno Sarris: (had a good point: how would he know anything else lol)

Wigwam: Hey Eno, the thought here in SD is the the FO pushed Preller to be aggressive to gain fan interest after almost a decade of poor ownership and boring teams. The result on the field was terrible, but “blowing up the farm” is probably overblown: Wisler essentially became Margot and Guerra, and he held on to Hedges and Renfroe. The thought is now that he is staying in a middle ground and trying to replenish the farm on the sly through draft and int. signing, in part to maintain fan interest that they regained after last offseason. If they stay in the middle area, would signing Cespedes with an opt out make sense for them the year they host and All-, or should they just trade Ross, Norris, and Cashner similar to what

Eno Sarris: This is a decent alternative narrative to ‘Preller is an idiot,’ and it really makes sense. Trea Turner might be the only one that hurts, and they did get Guerra back. And he made his bones in international market, so he’s going to leap there soon.

Johnny5Alive: Here’s an idea i proposed ysterday but didnt get dave’s thoughts: Mets and Cespedes. Cespedes wants 5-6 years and 9 figures. Mets want 1-3 years. In their position on the win curve, for a short term deal, cespedes might actually be worth 30-35 million on 1 year. Based on that premise: Mets offer 5 years, 100 million. 55 million over the first 2 years, an opt out after the second year, and 15 per over the remaining 3 years. It does two things: 1, it increases the likelihood of an opt out, and two, if he doesnt, you are only paying him next to nothing over the next 3 years. I mean De Aza is getting paid close to 8 to be a 4th outfielder.

Eno Sarris: I do think the opt out is going to be the key to ‘we signed him to a short deal!’ and ‘they signed me to a long deal!’ spin at the end.

jtt: He doesn’t walk he hits too many balls on the ground and he is a bad defender.

Eno Sarris: True, but Bogaerts is 22, and 4 years pre peak by any measure, showed power and patience in the minors, and has great exit velocity. Change the angle on the ball a little, and it could really click.

CecilFielder: Any exciting articles that you’ve got in the pipeline but just haven’t found the right time to unleash it’s glory upon us?

Eno Sarris: This year, I actually have a stable of ideas going into the season. I think y’all will be happy with it.

Connor: To Desmond, above, who argues that Justin ‘Zero Upside’ Turner is in no way better than Matt Duffy: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=700&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

Compton: What are the chances that Hunter Strickland gets ahold of the SF closer gig? Steamer projections indicate that he’s right up there with Wade Davis in terms of ERA/K/BB numbers.

Eno Sarris: I tell Strickland on a monthly basis that he will be the closer soon, and he smiles and thanks me.

Russ: What is Lance McCullers’s upside this year? How do you think he will actually perform?

Eno Sarris: His upside is to repeat, but I think we’ll see more walks. He can’t command the change very well, so he’ll walk some lefties.

Derek: Will Andrew Cashner ever have a break out year? Dude has the stuff…I drafted him every year since he’s been up and I’m always left shaking my head.

Eno Sarris: I’m thinking now that the secondary stuff, which rates as basically average, is not enough to make him unpredictable. So people sit dead red on him. Should probably just throw that other stuff more even if it means injury and some soft hits.

Ludas Luda: I did some digging on Jose Reyes’ pending legal situation and came away with an important finding: he has a superman tattoo on his chest. Could you think of anyone more ironic to have a “man of steel” logo emblazoned on himself?

Compton: I’ve read that Jose Reyes *could* be deported, is there any real possibility of this?

Eno Sarris: As a green card holder, yes, if he gets charged and convicted of a felony, he can get deported. Doesn’t mean he will. Superman or no.

The Don: Who competes for a division title first: Reds, Rockies or Phillies? (Who is the tallest midget)

Eno Sarris: Reds. I like the young pitchers.

Phil: I think I asked this last week but you didn’t respond and I don’t know if there is a better forum to inquire, but I am unreasonably interested since I have really started using BeerGraphs for my drinking purposes… did the idea that was started last summer in the blog area of BG of finding a way to filter out non-current beers ever gain traction? I would love to be able to avoid all the highly-rated one-offs and extinct beers. Thanks!

Eno Sarris: Yeah we found a way to do it, we think. Problem is the list of things to implement is so long. I’ll move this to the top of the q.

Jake: What opt-out is a team most going to regret including? I’m tempted to say Heyward, but I don’t think he would’ve taken anything without a strong opt out.

Eno Sarris: hurt pitcher is where I look first. Chen?

Schiraldi: I backed into a stars and scrubs strategy (not my regular approach, but fun!) and I like most of my guys but am a little leery about Cutch. He’s amazing, obviously, but the speed looks like it’s declining a little and the power may be too. Think he squeezes out one more superstar season like ’12 and ’14, or is an .850 OPS and 10 steals more realistic?

Eno Sarris: Talked about this on the podcast. Actually starting to look like a second rounder to me.

Snarfle: I will sometimes think about downgrading context stats in my draft prep, but I haven’t yet, because I figure rate stats are almost as noisy. Still, would it make sense to put, say, a .9 multiplier on R/RBI when totaling player scores?

Eno Sarris: Maybe. Those projections are nasty. Projection crews don’t even want to do them, but fantasy makes them do it.

Snarfle: I AM A CAT AND I WORK FOR NPR

“Real Guy” Flumm: Over/under – my tinkle or my stinkle?

Bork: The Brewers are having open tryouts? Now’s my chance to show off my extreme flyball pitching skills while pitching at slower then a pitching machine.

Q-Ball: RE: California Breweries……problem is access to water.

Eno Sarris: is true. but, tons of money and people out there.

SF Dave: The average woman uses her height in lipstick every 5 years.

Eno Sarris: disturbing

eelz: Remind me: how long after return is a pitcher out of his TJ “safe-zone?” (Vetting Stras)

Eno Sarris: 400 IP I think.

Codes: Do you follow Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball? Think his approach to velocity development works? Are there any teams implementing this sort of stuff?

Eno Sarris: Yes. Everything seems based in research, his own and others, and it’s all very understandable to me. He works with teams and pitching coaches are familiar with his methods. He’s not crazy.

ROBBIE RAY: HEY ENO – REMEMBER ME?!?! HEHE YOUR FRIGGIN COLLEAGUES DON’T HATE ME ACCORDING TO THEIR RANKINGS. WHO’S THE FRIGGIN LOSER NOW

Eno Sarris: This is true. I might be wrong! He struck out guys last year! But his changeup is bad and his xFIP v RHP was 4.39 with more walks and more fly balls allowed against them.

Compton: If you really loved us, you could have peed in a gatorade bottle at your computer and not had to waste all that time going all the way out to the yard.

Eno Sarris: There’s a door right here next to the computer.

Jon: Which 30-year old should I sell this offseason? Tulo, Donaldson, Ian Desmond, Adam Jones

Eno Sarris: Tulo

Merv Throneberry: Addison Russell – top 5 Baseball Fantasy Island SS this year?

Eno Sarris: There’s a huge drop off after the top three, and he could sneak in there with B Craw and Seager for sure, although that means one guy won’t make it, and that’s *probably* my boy Addison.

PiscoSour420: HEY ENO IT ME STPEHN PSICOTTY! WE BOTH WEN 2 STANFROD!! BOOM BOOM sry2 EXCITED!!! ME GOOD

Snarfle: Not joking, after my Starbucks/ESPN comment, the in-laws showed up and brought me some Starbucks grounds. This is nice of them and I am happy about it, because free coffee, but still. In-lawsynchronicity.

Ludas Luda: it seems there is a strong correlation between proximity of poop to the toilet and success. Pooping the bed? Quite bad. Pooping oneself/one’s pants? Very bad. Pooping before getting off the pot? Good

Eno Sarris: well done guys.

phiphi: Jerad Eickhoff is better than Aaron Nola. Jerad Eickhoff is good.

Eno Sarris: I wouldn’t go that far. Mostly because Nola’s fastball still > Eickhoff’s fastball.

Merv Throneberry: Can Ventura and his heater be more relevant this year or is he still a little wacky?

Matt Harvey’s Bat Suit: Nice music choice. Think Daniel Murphys power exhibition towards the end of the year is for real? Did Kevin Longs pull more tweak change him or is it just the luck of the Irish?

Eno Sarris: Started throwing the curve more (Ventura), so that could be the driver of more success. Still would like to see more extension.

Eno Sarris: Murphy did the old person trick of moving closer to plate and pulling the ball more. It can work, but you already started to see more front-door sinkers, and I think you’ll see more Ks if he goes that way. Plus, not a great 2B, but you didn’t ask about that.

Snarfle: Spose I should put on some Real Pants and start getting Paid.

Eno Sarris: nah

CecilFielder: I work right next to the Trillium Brewery..never been in. should I stop by?

Eno Sarris: yes. although you can’t really drink there, so you’d have to pick something up. You could go to that raw bar place around the corner and get something I bet.

Matt Harvey’s Bat Suit: Sano or X Bog in a points league

Eno Sarris: Sano

Hal: What is the worst beer you’ve ever had?

Eno Sarris: Big Hurt Beer.

Compton: Have you seen the new Star Wars yet? If so, do you buy the theory that Rey is actually Nicholas Cage reincarnated? It just makes too much sense.

Eno Sarris: SPOILERS

DDSP: Hey buddy! n1 make pee pee in yard. I make kakie in my desk chair 2 save time. uhoh… just maked!!! =]

Biscuit: Tennis ruined tennis

Ludas Luda: David Ortiz would still jaw at a robot ump

Eno Sarris: This might be my favorite.

Ludas Luda: re that Lester/Heyward factoid: You can pretty much set your clock on Boras clients hitting FA when they are scheduled to

Eno Sarris: good point.

SF Dave: Russo’s yelling at me!!!!!! TELL HIM TO STOP YELLING AT ME!!!!!

Eno Sarris: yelling back at him does no good, I know this from experience.

Guest: Hey Eno, I just looked at Bastardo’s page. He has a 0.54 HR/9 rate over the last three years; he’s projected for 1.01 in 2016. His K and BB rates are about the same as they were 2013-15. What gives?

Eno Sarris: It’s a reaction to all those fly balls, probably. HR/9 in a reliever season is still small sample, probably. But yeah, I’d take the under on that projection.

Jon: BORKDAD

Johnny5Alive: Bork, ive been trying for years… but she keeps saying “we need to be married first” Alas, I am childless

Compton: Could you ever trust someone named Gustav?

Eno Sarris: ?

SF Dave: Bork: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Zorak: To the beer in can haters, apparently Nugget Nectar is gonna be in cans this year. Also, Nugget Nectar is coming and I can’t freaking wait.

Eno Sarris: Yes more and more cans every year.

Jeff: Eno last week, you stated that Piscotty for 25 and .270 was a reasonable projection, can you explain why considering his track record?

Eno Sarris: I talked to him and looked at his swing change and believe he’s made a change that can make that power sustainable.

one eye: Why does it say 1 pm on the fakn chat widget? It’s 10am east coast bias much Eno?

Eno Sarris: Hey man I’m out here with you.

Popup Babip: on the rare occasion that a glass to pour into is not available the bottle provides so much flavor above replacement vessel (can)

Eno Sarris: Is true. I don’t camp much these days.

Dr. Zizmor: Here’s the thing I always wonder about popups. If you’re considering total batters faced, how are youtio r H8 nisor syr OHOHOHohHohh OIEOIE I”m EA WEREFWOLF RIO RFnf

RotoLando: If Lucas Duda turned into a werewolf while using a remote control waffle button as he sat on one of those weird, German poop-shelf toilets, would that be the most Eno Chat thing ever?

Eno Sarris: One after another in the q.

Eno Sarris: oh god there’s a second page of questions

one eye: Shot from a cannon: Misty Dawn bareback or Votto body masssage?

Eno Sarris: ….

Guest: You think the Nationals would be a hell of a lot happier right now if Billy Burns was playing CF for them and not for Oakland? Rizzo really missed on that trade, no?

Eno Sarris: Burns figured out how to hit righties, and that story not totally writ yet.

peno buttis: hey i’ll sponsor your podcast —- WITH MY ASS

Eno Sarris: if it pays well

SF Dave: Can I get ahead of the curve by targeting MIA pitchers that need a tweak (I did this successfully with PIT pitchers like Liriano, Volquez and Happ) now that Benedict is there?

Eno Sarris: Yes this is a decent idea.

Hannah Hochevar: Tupac followup: how do you square his twin boasts of You Can’t See Me and All Eyez On Me? And will your answer require a knowledge of the 4th dimension?

Eno Sarris: easy: all eyez are looking but they can’t see.

phishfishfaiiuEhu!: Christian Yelich is dynasty gold!

Eno Sarris: Too many ground balls for now.

The Average Sports Fan: Can you see Eddie Butler or Jon Gray actually developing into anything of value? Say a top 60 starter?

Eno Sarris: More Jon Gray, though his change is iffy. Both sort of need to work on a third pitch.

one eye: Pick a guy to spec on in the later mid rounds, Eovaldi, Smyly, Quintana

Eno Sarris: Smyly

Cashman: Eovaldi made strides with the split last year – inching closer to Tanaka in terms of swstrk%. Assuming he’s healthy what can we reasonably expect? 3.50 ERA 1.10 WHIP 8 K/9?

Eno Sarris: I think the health thing is a problem.

nah doe: McCutchen still elite in OBP leagues.

Eno Sarris: truth

Maxamuz: SHOCKING NEWS! Pablo Sandoval has LOST 20 LBS! Oh My! What a story that is. 😐

Eno Sarris: SUZYN WALDMAN VOICE

Russo Largo: Freemont Darkstar vs. Oak Yeti vs. Victory Storm King. Which one leads off which one cleans up?

Eno Sarris: Gonna have my first dark star this weekend!

jtt: Do you pronounce GIF like a normal person? Or do you say “Jiff” which is technically correct but incredibly stupid sounding

Eno Sarris: I’m incredibly stupid sounding, I guess.

Pete : Would you be a seller or a buyer of Piscotty in a dynasty?

Eno Sarris: buyer