Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 2/5/15
| 10:46 |
: be here soon. feeling like some hip hop today
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| 10:46 |
:
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| 12:00 |
Missy Elliot owned that halftime show y/y |
| 12:01 |
: Well my boy was mesmerized by Katy Perry and the sharks and lions but yeah Missy did pretty well.
|
| 12:02 |
Does Hamilton’s injury equate to an uptick in CJ Cron’s fantasy value? Given the current power drought, is he worth gambling more than a few bucks at the auction? |
| 12:02 |
: I think he’ll basically full time DH to begin the season, and if you value him at like .260/15 I think you’ll own him and there’s a little upside left.
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| 12:02 |
Where in New York are you from, and did you know the Beastie Boys personally if so |
| 12:03 |
: a) not that old b) only lived in the city for seven years
|
| 12:03 |
Greetings, Eno! I’m in dire need of your opinion, so I hope you will indulge me. I’ve been in an AL-only league for the past decade, and a few of my league mates are pushing to make a major change this year. They would like to abolish the farm, in hopes of expanding the available player pool. Just wondering what your thoughts are on the proposed change, and if you’re for or against making major changes like this to a league in general. Thanks so much. |
| 12:04 |
: I find farms problematic at times. If you have a 50 IP/ 150 PA rule for when they lose protectability as an asset, you’ll find you just lose most of the prospects you groom until they come into the league. Rare is the prospect that is both good and good right away. If you add a couple keeper slots, you can keep minor leaguers in there anyway.
|
| 12:04 |
re: Budweiser’s Super Bowl ad attacking craft beers. Why would a bottled water company launch such an ad? |
| 12:05 |
: My theory was that it was a ‘rallying the base’ political ad designed to inject meaning into the purchase of a Budweiser.
|
| 12:05 |
I’ve read a number of articles raving that Jake Odorizzi will have a major breakout in 2015, and then a few saying the exact opposite. Where do you side in this debate? |
| 12:06 |
: His slider sucks. Fastball/splitchange without Gausman’s velocity… that doesn’t excite me. But! His curve is one of the slowest in the game and it drops a ton. If he used it more, for grounders, he might indeed have a full arsenal. You know me, I rarely speak in black and white terms, it might be infuriating. But I’ll say this: I’ll pay *sleeper* prices for Odorizzi. Not *proven guy* prices. and the more he’s talked up as a sleeper the more likely he won’t go for sleeper prices.
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| 12:06 |
What’s your take on Shelby Miller? His name seems to pop up in a lot of your articles. |
| 12:07 |
: Dude had a bottom ten curve AND change last year. But sequencing and arsenal effects mean, to me, if he can command the fastball, particularly the high fastball, he can get the curve back and pair it with a decent cutter to be Richards-esque. I kept him at $7 in an ottoneu league, and will buy him at sp4/5 prices.
|
| 12:07 |
How deep is the 3B fantasy pool this year? I have Plouffe at $8 in both my mixed and AL-only leagues, and trying to figure out if he’s worth keeping? |
| 12:08 |
: It’s pretty deep. I have him as the 13th-best AL 3B by unmolested Steamer, behind Moustakas, so probably not a great keeper.
|
| 12:09 |
I need an Adult!!! I need to select one more keeper and I can’t choose between Cano, Altuve or Joey Bats. I want to go with Altuve, but regression has to happen. What is your opinion? |
| 12:10 |
: Steamer z-score says Bautista, youth says Altuve. Might depend on how your team shakes for power vs speed. I think Altuve can still steal 35-40 even with the steep quality of the SB aging curve.
|
| 12:10 |
When you were in elementary schools were there other children with your name such that you were Eno S. and the other child was Eno K. or did you never experience this identity-confounding experience |
| 12:10 |
: I have never met another Eno. I’ve heard of one and of course I was named after Brian Eno, but I’ve never actually met another Eno.
|
| 12:11 |
: Interestingly, though, I did not pass that experience on to my sons, Felix and Calvin. I wanted them to have different names, and their middle names are a little weirder maybe, but there were plenty of times I wanted a normal name as a kid.
|
| 12:11 |
I’m trying to target a few American League relievers that could go at my auction for $1, yet end up providing much more value. Excluding the obvious guys like Davis and Miller, are guys like Farquhar, Duke and Joe Smith where I should be focusing? |
| 12:13 |
: Love Farq. Scanning the depth charts, also Scheppers, Fujikawa, Boxberger, Jepsen, Rondon, Ryan Cook, Casey Fien, all the Astros guys
|
| 12:13 |
Most likely to close in Texas if Feliz falters, Fujikawa or Scheppers? |
| 12:14 |
: Assuming full health for both I’m still taking Scheppers. Velocity is there, safe guy.
|
| 12:14 |
So… turning my attention back to baseball now that football is done. Where do I start? |
| 12:14 |
: Depth charts.
|
| 12:14 |
Top 5 rookies you’re most excited to watch this season? |
| 12:15 |
: 1) Jorge Soler. 2) Jorge Soler. 3) Jorge Soler. 4) Jorge Soler. 5) Jorge Soler.
|
| 12:17 |
: Okay obviously I want to see Bryant but his Ks make me nervous. I think we’ll see some Sano and I just like watching him after that movie. I love love Addison Russel and think Corey Seager can be a shortstop for a while, so those guys too. Pitchers I want to see include Rodon, Owens, Syndergaard.
|
| 12:17 |
If John Farrell decides to go into the season with Victorino in the starting lineup, would Betts or Castillo be more likely to sit? And what is the likelihood he actually does that? |
| 12:18 |
: I don’t think he does that considering Victorino’s splits against righties, which are backed up by a on-again-off-again switch hitting approach. Meaning, we’re not sure he can hit righties any more. Or that his back will hold up to everyday use. But I’ll have to admit that, given age and money, they probably sit Betts.
|
| 12:18 |
: (or demote for a while)
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| 12:18 |
Thoughts on Rougned Odor and Jose Ramirez (CLE) this year in an OBP leage? That Odor ZIPS projection has me re-thinking my stance… |
| 12:19 |
: I like Odor a lot. In an OBP league, he’s worse, obviously. But I still take him. Pitchers were afraid of him in the second half.
|
| 12:19 |
Is Ryan Braun really no longer a first rounder? |
| 12:20 |
: Your best Braun projection doesn’t have the power or speed it used to, which means it can’t hang with the first round outfielders. Is he better than Adam Jones?
|
| 12:20 |
What are your thoughts on Corey Dickerson? Does he get enough playing time to be elite? Is he Adam Jones with a lower ceiling and a higher floor? |
| 12:20 |
: Yeah I think he won’t be platooned and some of his rate stats will go down but the counting stats will go up.
|
| 12:20 |
Right now chilling in my fridge I have Troegs Nugget Nectar, Bell’s Hopslam, and Six Point High Res. LOVE this time of year. |
| 12:20 |
: dang boi
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| 12:20 |
Eno, regarding Mike Fiers, how would he compare to a Shaun Marcum type especially if he continues to use the cutter more? no velocity, but good secondary stuff |
| 12:20 |
: Yeah I guess so but wasn’t Marcum all about that change?
|
| 12:20 |
Are you a Jason Kipnis believer? |
| 12:21 |
: Yes I think he’s underprojected in the power department because he played through an injury.
|
| 12:21 |
On a 1 to 10 scale how scared are you for Yu this year? |
| 12:22 |
: Maybe a six. So many bad markers: BB%, Zone%, Slider%, previous injury. Could be higher even if he wasn’t youngish still and hadn’t managed okay IP totals recently.
|
| 12:22 |
welcome to LudeBurger, home of the LudeBurger, may I take your order? |
| 12:22 |
AND HELL YEAH BEASTIE BOYS |
| 12:22 |
I like that Sporer guy on the podcast. |
| 12:22 |
: love lude
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| 12:22 |
I used to hesitate buying beer online, because of the shipping. But trading is just buying beers online, except your paying in beer and buying from a non-merchant (and ultimately engaging in a riskier activity). Buying beers online is cool. |
| 12:22 |
: Except that usually you strike up some interesting cross country friendships with the trading.
|
| 12:22 |
Who puts it together this year, AWebster or Jacob Turner? |
| 12:23 |
: I lean Webster, more opportunity, better signature pitch (the change vs… the curve?)
|
| 12:23 |
A reasonable expectation for Kris Bryant’s BABIP in 2015 is _______________. In 2017 is ___________________. |
| 12:23 |
: .300. .300? I’m not giving a guy high BABIPS because of minor league BABIPS.
|
| 12:23 |
How do you feel about getting pretty extreme with waiting on pitching in a deeper league? I did a 15 team NFBC style mock draft and found that towards the end of the draft I still saw pitching value on the board with little offensive talent left. And the consensus was that pitching was going earlier than expected. |
| 12:24 |
: I like to keep my toe in the water by buying a number two that could still be a number one, but yeah, I see pitching everywhere.
|
| 12:24 |
Does Cody Asche get enough playing time between 3B and OF to be draftable in deep/NL-only leagues? |
| 12:24 |
: I held on to him in a 20-team 28-keeper mixed league. People liked his hit tool. That team needs help everywhere.
|
| 12:24 |
the mets are the 5th favorites to win the NL! (nats, dodgers, cardinals, cubs, and then mets/giants tied) … how?! is this real life? the 79 win team added an old, oft-injured, OF and a sub-par platoon player… whats up with that? |
| 12:24 |
: Their young pitching got closer/healthier.
|
| 12:25 |
Are you buying Lorenzo Cain this year? Very high BABIP last year, but also might be hitting third this year. |
| 12:25 |
: Not really. Age and injury history (never topped 600 PA) make him really iffy to me.
|
| 12:25 |
20 Years from now…what stat will replace “300 Wins” as perhaps the most significant lifetime achievement for a pitcher? (other than WAR?) |
| 12:26 |
: Strikeouts perhaps. Rates are going up, so new pitchers can hang with old pitchers by getting more in fewer innings.
|
| 12:27 |
:
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| 12:27 |
Jeff’s findings re: opposition quality are very interesting. Any thoughts on why it wouldn’t have an effect? |
| 12:28 |
: We have something in FG+ that shows something sort of similar from the hitting side. What’s interesting to me is that teams may yet employ analysis like this: we think it’s tiny, but when you have to win, maybe all tiny slivers are looked at. Also: once you zoom out on baseball like that, all sorts of things disappear.
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| 12:28 |
Hey, no reason to want any of that Shake Shack stock, eh? |
| 12:28 |
Cronut burger = a more amazing luther, I’m on it I’m on it |
| 12:29 |
My boss’ wife knits with a Mrs. Beastie Boy |
| 12:29 |
: huh
|
| 12:29 |
Nice piece on curves for JABO. Why do you think Waino and Kershaw did not appear on any lists? |
| 12:30 |
: They were in the 16-25 list, so they where there. Also, curves get a lot of called strikes (swing rate is super low), so maybe I have to put that in.
|
| 12:30 |
Who are your fantasy kryptonite playeys- guys you just can’t quit? |
| 12:30 |
: I bought Brett Lawrie in a couple leagues this year…
|
| 12:30 |
You think there will be some more pitching jockeying – Shields, Hamels, Gee, others..? |
| 12:31 |
: There are a few moves left in the hot stove, yeah. Kinda thinking no on Hamels though. Every rumor is _ team doesn’t want to give up _ top prospect, which means to me that Philly doesn’t want to put any money in the deal, which means that, yeah, he’s not going to get a huge return because he’s paid too near his value.
|
| 12:31 |
what’s the best way to adjust auction values for keepers? (in this particular league, you can keep guys for 1 year…it’s a snake draft, but obviously more useful to think of guys in terms of dollars.) |
| 12:32 |
: Can’t you just take the keepers out of the pool and then decide replacement level based on how many of each position are needed? So if it’s a 12-team league and four third basemen are kept, call RL like 8th or 12 if with CI spot.
|
| 12:33 |
will danny Santana (twins) have positive mixed league value this year? |
| 12:34 |
: I think a ton of regression is coming for him, but even at .260/7/25… that looks like an MI for me. Just don’t pay starting prices in a mixed league. Which his old batting average may mean you have to. Which means he’s probably not a great target.
|
| 12:34 |
Will you be going to the “Grateful Dead” 50th anniversary concert in Chicago in July? |
| 12:34 |
: If I can somehow mush it into my annual Pitchfork travel, maybe.
|
| 12:35 |
do you have any hope for trevor bauer this year to take a big step forward? |
| 12:35 |
: We talked on twitter about his change and he admitted he’s not quite there on it. I think he could improve his non-breaker non-fastball offerings, but even without he’s pretty good. I do like him.
|
| 12:36 |
Could rookie pitchers like Thor or Jon Gray be a nice very late flier on draft day? They could be up in late April/Early May, right? |
| 12:36 |
: Only on your bench, and only one. And only the one you think might break camp with the team. Which isn’t Thor, probably.
|
| 12:36 |
What’s a good valentine’s date, considering that all the fancy restaurants have been booked for ages and I’m poor |
| 12:37 |
: Something that resembles a hand made card. Like cook him/her dinner with a nice bottle of wine and a movie on reserve, or if you in good weather, a rooftop/picnic somewhere.
|
| 12:39 |
: WHO DID IT BETTER
|
| 12:39 |
:
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| 12:39 |
:
|
| 12:39 |
: (I love em both)
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| 12:40 |
Hey Eno – last week I asked you if I should trade a Bauer or Gausman-type for a Moncada-type. You suggested it was worth the risk to go for the bat (especially considering the ceilings of the pitchers). I ended up moving Gausman for Tyler Glasnow and Aaron Judge (keep forever – 14 team) – How did I do? |
| 12:41 |
: Judge will tap into that power, I’m guessing. And Glasnow is a decent step back find. He went in the first round of the BP prospect draft.
|
| 12:41 |
Where do you have Yasmany Tomas on your 3B list and what’s his ceiling in your opinion? |
| 12:41 |
: Oh man I’m not in on this guy. Screams Viciedo to me.
|
| 12:41 |
: Wait where’d the question go? Dude was asking about Yasmany Tomas.
|
| 12:41 |
Should fantasy replacement level be 2-3 players beyond the # of players used in a roster lineup? As in, a in 12 person league w/ 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, the replacement level would be #14 or so? |
| 12:42 |
: Traditionally we focus on what would be drafted. So usually just starting slots where they eligible plus some % of UTIL. So for 1Bs, they usually dominate CI and UT, so probably something like 22 for a 12-teamer.
|
| 12:43 |
Is Chris Tillman unique in the fact that whenever I look at busy with good velocity and movement on his pitches, he comes up, but the results are dissappointing. I mean his curveball has silly movement and is below average. The fastballs has nice rise. |
| 12:43 |
: Called strikes on the curve again, I think. And some popups on the fastball, but not a ton.
|
| 12:43 |
does Cistulli always look like that |
| 12:43 |
: Well not usually with a tie.
|
| 12:43 |
do you like hammocks? ENO is the original parachute hammock creator. We craft all our hammocks and accessories to the highest quality in the industry |
| 12:43 |
: Oh yeah man. Got one of those downstairs!
|
| 12:44 |
Hey Eno! Do think Kolten Wong can go 15/30 this season? |
| 12:45 |
: Yeah he showed up as a player pitchers were avoiding in the second half, he’s got that big leg kick, I think he’ll outperform his power projections. And he stole 20 in 433 at 24… so yeah he can. Don’t pay like he will, but he can.
|
| 12:45 |
Shields/Cubs for 4/75. Yes/No/Eh why not I guess? |
| 12:46 |
: Not bad. I was thinking Padres because it seemed like they haven’t made in a move in forever. Yankees?
|
| 12:46 |
In regards to the Tillman question, if we could find correlation between pitch velocity and movement and results. Could we use that to find sleepers that might just have a mechanical problem or a sequencing problem? |
| 12:46 |
: Uh, yeah google my name and Fox and What Makes a Good Curve.
|
| 12:46 |
I researched your name and came up with the following results: There is roughly 1599 people in the United States that share the first name of, “Eno”. That equates to a very tiny percentage of people named Eno that I don’t feel like doing the math to. |
| 12:47 |
: WHAT 1598 OTHER ENOs I’M SHATTERED
|
| 12:47 |
Habanero Sculpin: just too hot to be enjoyable or a valuable experience? FYI, comparing all the Sculps in my next BeerGraphs piece. Love you, XOXO. |
| 12:47 |
: I don’t dig it. Even the grapefruit is so sweet for me, but I’ll dig on that way more than the Sculpin. I’ve had two chile beers I liked. One from NC I forget, and Prairie BOMB which has a tiny bit in it.
|
| 12:47 |
The other day I had barrel-aged coffee, I also like barrel-aged beer. My only remaining hobby to put in barrels: baseball. Barrel-age the balls themselves? Wear these outfits? Something else entirely? |
| 12:48 |
Every year I try and do the no starter ’til late rounds thing, and every year there’s a run on pitchers and I panic and grab one. What round do you normally target your first pitcher? |
| 12:48 |
: I try to get my first around rounds 5-7, and my second soon after. I think the top 25 is a tier, generally, and I want two out of it, even if it’s numbers 18 and 22.
|
| 12:48 |
David Hale is a guy you’ve liked this offseason. How much does that change with the move to Coors? |
| 12:49 |
: Well part of the reason I liked him was his curve and curves don’t do well there so yeah, he’s really really really low on my list.
|
| 12:49 |
IPA, Ginger Beer, and fresh lime juice together- delicous |
| 12:49 |
: Beer Cocktail!
|
| 12:50 |
Do you use a particular draft software, esp for fast paced auctions like tout wars….or just manage to get by with excel spreadsheets? |
| 12:50 |
: Excel, sometimes paper and pen
|
| 12:50 |
Top tier pitchers usually go for about $25 in our league. Do I keep Lester for $14, or Dickerson for $7? |
| 12:50 |
: Dickerson
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| 12:50 |
What do you make of Anthony DeSclafani with the Reds? Looks like he’ll crack the rotation, but is he just a reliever long term? |
| 12:51 |
: Actually like him a lot. Change actually has a lot of drop and fade. Slider’s good. Good velocity. Good command.
|
| 12:51 |
Are buying in on Jung Ho Kang at all this year? |
| 12:52 |
: Yes. Buy Fg+ to know why. But oh hell yes. (Don’t go spending $15 on him like y’all did with Lucas Duda and get all mad at me, but I love love a Kang/Owings or Kang/Bogaerts plan at short.)
|
| 12:52 |
I planned on watching Ballplayer: Pelotero this weekend while the North Bay gets pounded with rain. You’re saying it’s good, then? Will it sate my thirst for baseball for a couple weeks? In the spirit of full disclosure I will say I am also a Twins fan. |
| 12:52 |
: Yes watch it, you may get mad. If you want to continue getting mad, watch Sugar. That’ll cure you of baseball for a couple weeks, in a weird way.
|
| 12:53 |
Marcus Semien – a top 10-15 fantasy SS this year? Can you pick a couple SS that you would expect to produce similar fantasy value to Semien? |
| 12:53 |
: In batting average leagues, I’ll put him at the bottom of the top 15. In OBP, he can hang a bit with the guys I was just talking about.
|
| 12:54 |
Vote 4 Eno y’all |
| 12:54 |
| 12:54 |
Another possible fantasy team name: Wyld Stallyns |
| 12:54 |
Puig going over 6 WAR this year? |
| 12:54 |
: dude’s 24. Yes!
|
| 12:54 |
With Younger launching…tomorrow?! damn! Do you ever think you’ll go through the whole ordeal again? I tried it last year and I just don’t think I want to mess with it again. |
| 12:55 |
: Last year was bad. I’ll go when it’s not timed right around SF Beer Week. Too many people come to the bay area for both right now. I went before they were the same week, on a Tuesday, and waited three hours. Was great.
|
| 12:55 |
You like Joey Votto for a bounce back? And do you think he has a profile that will age well? |
| 12:56 |
: In terms of real-life value, yes. Even when not hitting, he’s walking. He’s super smart so he’ll get most of his abilities. Hope he’s not injury prone, not ready to count him out. I think he’ll have some more great years.
|
| 12:56 |
What do you expect from Tanaka? Where would you feel comfortable drafting him? |
| 12:56 |
: totally stymied. I wouldn’t draft him at all if Wainwright hadn’t managed a few seasons before he went under the knife in a similar situation.
|
| 12:58 |
HI Enos: sorry for the mistake. George Springer for Dylan Bundy and Gregory Polanco. Slugger’s points league–very small deduction for K by batters. Can only keep 12. I’m not sure that Bundy can help me very much this year. Make the deal? |
| 12:58 |
: Yeah as much as I love Polanco, Springer has much more upside and if Bundy is your 13th man, don’t even worry about it.
|
| 12:58 |
NL-only keeper question: Rosenthal 17 or Joaquin Benoit 12? Or either over Kolten Wong 14? |
| 12:58 |
: Wong.
|
| 12:58 |
It happened Eno. Try to remember. |
| 12:58 |
: Allright allright
|
| 12:59 |
Eno, being a west coast guy, have you been able to try Heady Topper? |
| 12:59 |
: someone sent it to me and I liked it, but it’s not atop my personal leaderboard
|
| 1:00 |
:
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| 1:00 |
all about that change about that change no cutter |
| 1:00 |
Whatever happened to Naughty by Nature? |
| 1:00 |
|
| 1:00 |
: wut
|
| 1:00 |
Is Calvin named after Cal? |
| 1:00 |
: Neither is named after a baseball player! And my wife and I are Stanford grads, so maybe I just want Cal to take the mound for Stanford.
|
| 1:01 |
Could you describe your process when evaluating top SP breakout candidates? I would guess it would be something like this: start with a list of elite changeups, then see what other offerings pair with it. Is that right? I could look at good per pitch numbers but I have no idea how many good pitches is enough (3?) and how that would translate to performance… |
| 1:01 |
: I want three pitches. One can be average, two can be breaking balls, but I want three. I’ll do up a final Arsenal Score thing soon!
|
| 1:01 |
Let’s have one. |
| 1:02 |
: I’m up for the Gala tomorrow, but not sure how many other hall passes I have. Maybe I can make one happen next week.
|
| 1:02 |
Soler Projection for 2015?? |
| 1:03 |
: .275/.340 with 28 bombs.
|
| 1:03 |
Does Alejandro de aza see full-time playing time in left? |
| 1:04 |
: 2/3 because he’s not great against lefties. At least you have to bake in that chance and go no higher than 500 PA.
|
| 1:04 |
are you into craft cheese |
| 1:04 |
not kraft cheese |
| 1:04 |
Eno the force is with you. I got a big tourney this weekend. Do I cave and run to the metagame or try to beat the mega with somethin that appears to be a sub-optimal build. I’m thinking wedge antilles, Jake farrell, and luke |
| 1:05 |
: Don’t ZIG not to ZAG, but zig on certain players when people zagging. Think: We may have soured too much on Michael Bourn and Michael Moustakas but you don’t make a plan out of that.
|
| 1:05 |
My league has 6 keepers and I’ve done a solid job turning mid-rounders into keepers the next year. I’ll have Goldy Abreu Rendon Gomez Kershaw and Bumgarner this year. What should I look for in my first few draft picks? |
| 1:06 |
: If rounds are attached to keepers, I often use the first rounds as rentals. Just get some one-year pitchers. If they aren’t, but you’ve shown this aptitude in the past, just get some veterans at the top. Go for value, then take a shot on a keeper later.
|
| 1:06 |
How many non-pros play in 20-team 28-keeper leagues? And what is that, 40-man rosters? |
| 1:07 |
: Well uh yeah that league is full of pros but I wanted to give context to my like of Asche. People play in NL-only keepers, right? Scoresheet, you keep 13 players, Asche might be a keeper on a rebuilding team.
|
| 1:07 |
When do positional rankings start to come out? |
| 1:07 |
: Very soon.
|
| 1:07 |
I like Sporer because he will correct your name mispronunciations… |
| 1:07 |
: Dude’s got spunk.
|
| 1:08 |
long time no chat! so let’s do an easy one. If Sandy were to butcher your name, what would he call you? |
| 1:08 |
: ENNO SAURUS
|
| 1:08 |
Is this the year Sid Bream finally makes a comeback?? |
| 1:08 |
: He’s still rounding third.
|
| 1:08 |
Are you a bit optimistic that Eovaldi threw the change a bit more late last season to excellent results? He threw it 13% of the time in August and September averaging 45% Whiffs/Swing. Small sample size, but it could be big if he develops a good curveball helping him change speeds. |
| 1:09 |
: I’ll take a chance on him super late based on velocity and just say the curve and the change both show signs of hope but I like the curve’s chances better.
|
| 1:09 |
Least favorite children cartoon your son watches? |
| 1:10 |
: Daniel Tiger. Bar none.
|
| 1:10 |
Hey, Team A gets Kole Calhoun and Evan Marshall, Team B gets Carlos Gonzalez — who wins?? Thanks, Eno! |
| 1:10 |
: Everyone else in the league loses.
|
| 1:11 |
Best ballpark guess of how many at bats Maikel Franco gets in the majors this year? 400? |
| 1:11 |
: They already talking about Asche in the outfield, so yeah I’ll give him that number with a decent chance of more.
|
| 1:11 |
Does Gerrit Cole pitch enough innings this year to justify the hype? |
| 1:11 |
: yes.
|
| 1:11 |
Should wRC+ be positionally adjusted? |
| 1:11 |
: no, it’s a bat-only stat.
|
| 1:12 |
is kryptonite a thing that you can’t quit? i must have missed those episodes of smallville |
| 1:12 |
: MUST HUFF THIS GREEN ROCK
|
| 1:12 |
: (wait maybe I should delete that)
|
| 1:12 |
I got the Dunkin Donuts cronut (The Crunkin’ Cronut?) — it was unremarkable, just like a glazed donut rly |
| 1:12 |
how do you tell apart jeffs sullivan and zimmerman |
| 1:12 |
: If you saw them in person you would never wonder this again.
|
| 1:13 |
What do you think Marte’s ceiling is? I find it a little strange he’s going top 40 ahead of a few guys I would prefer more. Do you believe his value is aligned with his early ADP? |
| 1:13 |
: I think we saw his ceiling.
|
| 1:13 |
I hope I get the number one pick in my auction draft! |
| 1:13 |
Odds that Kerry Wood puts up a hall of fame career are ___________. |
| 1:13 |
Hey Eno – I loved the recent piece on Fiers. Something I was thinking in terms of cutters and reverse platooonoiOIn NN OFO OH OGD GOD GNOOOO I”M A WEREWLOF |
| 1:13 |
: oh you know we’re pretty close to CLASSiC CHAT TERRITORY
|
| 1:13 |
At what point would you declare that a person is “too legit to quit”? It seems like a personal decision to me. Blanket statements from a guy named Hammer are counterproductive. |
| 1:14 |
:
|
| 1:14 |
Yesterday’s news just about ended interest I have in Danny Salazar. |
| 1:15 |
: yeah these dudes are not angels
|
| 1:15 |
I know you’re high on Stroman. Can you give a brief rundown on why you’re so optimistic about him this season? |
| 1:16 |
: Excellent velocity, excellent results on the four-seam, change, slider, curve, okay results on cutter, and added a nasty two-seam late in the year. Maybe long term you can worry about the velocity due to size, but not now.
|
| 1:16 |
Any thoughts on where Viciedo ends up? |
| 1:16 |
: v lefties platoon bat somewhere, not too exciting.
|
| 1:16 |
Is Headley nice value at 3B this year? I mean it seems like .260 with 20 HR/7SB is reasonable and I still don’t mind the Yankees offense. |
| 1:16 |
: Top ten third baseman!
|
| 1:17 |
How come no one arrested Bob Marley for shooting that poor sheriff? |
| 1:17 |
: i no right
|
| 1:17 |
Kyle Kendrick is not afraid to pitch in Coors? You will be. You will be. |
| 1:17 |
Your comments on Mookie make me nervous. a 24th round keeper over guys like 24th Polanco, 5th MadBum, 2nd Bryce? |
| 1:18 |
: I love Mookie? But you have to keep it in your pants I guess. I’m still feeling him here.
|
| 1:18 |
:
|
| 1:19 |
Who do you think wins the 5th spot in Cleveland, Slazar or House? |
| 1:19 |
: Yeah so stuff says Salazar by a mile. I still like House, but I don’t think you can give him that job.
|
| 1:19 |
Is this too little for Wainwright in a near dynasty? Ozuna, Winker, and a prospect pick? |
| 1:19 |
: I’m trading Waino now, and I actually like that deal. Ozuna is young and exciting.
|
| 1:20 |
Who’d you rather keep, Alex Wood in the 8th, Ian Desmond in the 20th, or Taijuan Walker in the 23rd? (I also could have Melancon in the 14th or Giles/Betances in the last round… but… relievers…) |
| 1:20 |
: Desmond.
|
| 1:20 |
Who’s the first big Cuban bust we’ll see? It’s gotta happen eventually…right? |
| 1:20 |
: Tomas
|
| 1:20 |
Has a player ever farted while hitting a home run? |
| 1:20 |
did the ball go farther? Thanks! |
| 1:20 |
: Uh dude I’m going to ask the right player this some day.
|
| 1:20 |
I have recently discovered the greatness of the “Jack” series from Firestone Walker. Especially the Wookey Jack. You had these? They are all ranking up there with the best beers I have ever tasted. |
| 1:20 |
: I’ve been a Double Jack evangelist for a while!
|
| 1:21 |
what are you expecting from cliff lee? |
| 1:21 |
: Near vintage as he tries to pitch his way out of Philly.
|
| 1:21 |
The thought that the market values Moncada at $x but he’ll only get $(x/2) in the name of “competitive balance” makes me quite cross. |
| 1:21 |
: Does the draft make you angry too?
|
| 1:21 |
Are you a man of the Left? If so, how Left (1-10)? |
| 1:22 |
: I’ll answer by listing a few demographic facts: I’m still a German citizen (green card), my mother is German, I’ve lived there and in London, and in San Francisco, and in London, and I’ve never felt much right of my communities.
|
| 1:23 |
Can you explain the connection between Bruce Jenner and Kanye West |
| 1:23 |
Run them jewels fast. |
| 1:23 |
:
|
| 1:23 |
: over the curve of my life I’m more RJD2 than El-P, I guess.
|
| 1:24 |
CE WANT MOOKIES!!!!!!! |
| 1:24 |
: Guess C really is good enough for ye.
|
| 1:24 |
Grandmaster Flash did it a lot better. So did RunDMC. But I’m an old fart. |
| 1:24 |
: hah.
|
| 1:24 |
Asheru…haven’t heard that name since the Boondocks theme song. |
| 1:24 |
: It’s sad really. I wonder where he’s been.
|
| 1:25 |
In what barrel should more beers be aged: rum barrel, port barrel, tequila barrel, tabasco barrel, old barrel in my dad’s basement full of rusty tools, barrel of monkeys, barrel that went over niagara falls, other barrel |
| 1:25 |
: Tequila. Drink almanac Tequila Noir. It gives a a nice edge. Wait maybe this wasn’t serious he says as he reads the end of the post.
|
| 1:25 |
Been discouraged with the Jays, can you give me some positive “potential” numbers on some of the kids -Pompey, Sanchez. Norris or Travis? |
| 1:26 |
: Number? I love Pompey. Really took a step forward and I think he can be an OBP asset with some power and speed and D. The other two are longer shots, I love Norris but elbow surgery.
|
| 1:27 |
Baseball is bad at making new rules and bad at changing rules that clearly need it. Discuss. (Inspired by the Moncada bidding war in which only rich zorkos need apply, and tens of millions will be dropped into a fund of uncertain purpose.) |
| 1:28 |
: Man the unintended consequences really don’t seem to be very thought out, do they?
|
| 1:28 |
does Cistulli live in a penthouse apartment in New Hampshire, or was that background not real |
| 1:28 |
I love how seeing Cistulli shocked the baseball world. |
| 1:28 |
FG+ ETA??? |
| 1:28 |
: VERY SOON INTERLUDE
|
| 1:30 |
Can Hosmer go something like 80/20/80/280/10? Too rich? |
| 1:30 |
: nah, he can do that I guess. Might take the under on the SBs.
|
| 1:30 |
ooh, I’m gonna remind you about that Viciedo comment after he pops another 20 bombs primarily facing just LHers. |
| 1:30 |
: 20 bombs in 200-300 PA?
|
| 1:31 |
are any beers brewed with chilis — mexican hot chocolate style beers aside — that are remotely palatable |
| 1:31 |
: Go get Prairie Bomb.
|
| 1:31 |
How is the attitude on the Giant’s in the Bay area? For an outside perspective it seems like they are riding the wave of the WS win and instead reloading and going for it again, they are signing the Casey McGehees and Jake Peavy’s of the world.. |
| 1:31 |
: Dunno but I’m talking to the players, Giants on Friday and A’s on Monday, and boy if I’m not looking forward to the new slate of players Beane got me more.
|
| 1:32 |
Rickey’s season with the Mets was totally bonkers. Dude slashed .315/.423/.466 at age 41. 31 steals, 135 wRC+. Gave some of that back on defense, but still, and regardless whether any anti-aging cream was involved, nutso. Kinda sad that it was the next year’s team, with no Rickey or (especially) Olerud that went to the Series. |
| 1:32 |
: Buy your free agents old…. really old.
|
| 1:32 |
Heard D. Holland as a bum and a solid #2. Which is closer to the truth? |
| 1:33 |
: I’m selling. Fastball slider lefty, even with good command, with velocity starting to go down? He’ll be useful in fantasy this year, but has better trade value imo.
|
| 1:34 |
:
|
| 1:34 |
Hey Eno: I found out 20 years ago I’m not the only guy named Vilnius in the USA. Got over it in about 30 minutes. Still a great starting point with the chicks. |
| 1:34 |
: My middle name is Kama, so I know what you’re saying, but I guess my son will just have to try a little harder when it comes to talking to women.
|
| 1:34 |
My late grandfather was named Clebert. I didn’t do the research myself, but my brother checked with the social security database and said he was the only one with that name! |
| 1:35 |
Eno, Julio Teheran’s ’14 numbers show big-time regression possibilities, but so far he seems to be getting drafted right where those numbers put him, solidly in the SP2 category. He’s a borderline keeper for me and I’m trying to figure out what his value is – what do you think his 2015 season will look like and where do you think he should be drafted? |
| 1:35 |
: By arsenal he has all the pieces he needs, and even a way to combat velocity loss (more changeups, which have been good in smaller samples added up together to a good sample).
|
| 1:36 |
Are the international signings the most egregious example of income disparity between the MLB clubs? |
| 1:36 |
: right now, yes.
|
| 1:36 |
In a fantasy draft, how often do you “stick with the plan going in” as opposed to “on the spot change-up pick” – like bypassing BPA/Need for a gut feel “I think I need this guy instead”? |
| 1:36 |
: I have a changeable plan, where I have some key guys I need to throw early to figure out what’s going on. In snakes, I monitor each position and try to identify tiers as I’m going.
|
| 1:36 |
paper and pen sounds useful — where can i download it? |
| 1:36 |
Eno, if I drop certain phantasmagoria from my career ambitions, I will always have the ludes. The lude dragons. The drude lagons. |
| 1:37 |
why does driving 105mph make you go to jail, like i’m all for celebrities getting a comeuppance but really |
| 1:37 |
Is Storen going to be a good closer this year? |
| 1:37 |
: For cost, yes. Janssen needs to show he’s healthy to be any threat at all.
|
| 1:37 |
Is tropeano a sleeper #5 in LAA? |
| 1:37 |
: Yes I like.
|
| 1:37 |
I fully support the purchase of FG+. I’ve bought it for a few years and will continue to do so. |
| 1:37 |
: Early next week!
|
| 1:37 |
Selfie sticks — great idea or terrible idea |
| 1:37 |
: man bun
|
| 1:37 |
When will Xander Bogaerts .280/.350/.450 and hit 20 dingers |
| 1:38 |
: 2016.
|
| 1:38 |
You are not worried by Puig and breaking stuff, I take it. |
| 1:38 |
: He has great oppo power and has shown ability to change swing patterns in the past.
|
| 1:38 |
Who makes you TJ nervous? I started wondering about Stroman, but that’s 90% because he’s young and good. |
| 1:39 |
: Yu Darvish. Tyson Ross. Colin McHugh. G Richards. Bud Norris.
|
| 1:40 |
When the season starters, who will be the closer in Milwaukee and Toronto? |
| 1:40 |
: Cecil and K Rod?
|
| 1:41 |
Favourite Madlib persona? |
| 1:43 |
:
|
| 1:43 |
If you have another child, please name him Hobbes…at least as a middle name |
| 1:43 |
have you listened to jeff bridges’s ambient music and, if not, do you want to |
| 1:43 |
: laughed. not in love with ambient.
|
| 1:44 |
|
| 1:44 |
: HAH
|
| 1:44 |
sites to do some earlyish mock drafting? |
| 1:44 |
: Couch managers.
|
| 1:44 |
Guitar string go TWANG! |
| 1:44 |
I haven’t been here in a while: do we still do THUNDER and …. |
| 1:45 |
yes the draft makes me angry |
| 1:45 |
Hey Sporer was great! Is Minnix okay, tho? I just want to make sure he’s happy and healthy. |
| 1:46 |
: Yes Minnix is just looking at new things to do with this time. He might come back. Door’s open.
|
| 1:46 |
De La did it best no matter what age you are |
| 1:46 |
what round is this? |
| 1:46 |
fwiw port barrel beers are so delicious |
| 1:46 |
Have you heard anything about JFER’s recovery/timetable? |
| 1:46 |
: June
|
| 1:46 |
Hey Eno Huge fan! thanks for taking the time to chat! Your prediction for Josh Donaldson this year? |
| 1:47 |
: Better BA, 30+ homers.
|
| 1:47 |
Thoughts on Shane Greene? Any chance for a sub 4.00 ERA? |
| 1:47 |
: Yes
|
| 1:47 |
who do you like better moncad or Thomas ? thanks |
| 1:47 |
: Moncada
|
| 1:47 |
Eno, I am stuck… do I trade Donaldson? or do I keep him? what will he slash? |
| 1:47 |
: keep
|
| 1:47 |
If the unintended consequences were thought out, they wouldn’t really be “unintended,” right? |
| 1:47 |
: they could be better anticipated, but sure
|
| 1:47 |
Virginia is crazy, that’s why speeding puts you in jail. It has nothing to do with the fact that he’s an athlete. |
| 1:48 |
So you think it’s ok to just remember that 110 wRC+ is a fine wRC+ for a 2B, and positional adjustments would over-complicate without adding to the storytelling? |
| 1:48 |
: I do. I want some stats separate, and wRC+ is so super clean and beautiful.
|
| 1:48 |
Kluber is the guest on mlbtr podcast |
| 1:48 |
: Terrible interview.
|
| 1:49 |
What’s your outlook on Jesse Hahn? |
| 1:49 |
: good
|
| 1:49 |
:
|
| 1:49 |
How do you define a tier at a position? SGP or rotisserie dollar values or is it by category or ??? |
| 1:50 |
: We’ll have it in depicted graphically in FG+, but yeah you can use your z-score values to see tiers.
|
| 1:50 |
: Okay guys. I have to do a podcast with Sporer and finish up FG+ today so it’s time to go. Love and kisses and hip-hop dreams.
|
| 1:51 |
position adjusted HRs |
| 1:51 |
How do you calculate Z-score again? |
| 1:51 |
: (value minus mean for value set) / (standard deviation for value set)
|
| 1:51 |
begone ye ENO |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Making a trade in a 12 team dynasty league. $15 Victor Martinez and $9 Brandon Moss for $18 Lucroy. What side do you like and what are your thoughts on all 3?