FanGraphs Crowd: Yoan Moncada’s Contract

Yesterday, FanGraphs facilitated a brief crowdsourcing project with a view towards estimating Cuban defector Yoan Moncada’s signing bonus and other relevant information concerning the 19-year-old infielder.

What follows are the results of that effort followed by analysis courtesy FanGraphs’ lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel.

***

Signing Bonus
Moncada will likely receive the largest bonus ever given to a free agent who’s also subject to Major League Baseball’s international free agent rules. (Note: the figures below do not include the 100% tax to which Moncada’s signing club will be subject.)

Here’s the median figure as projected by the crowd: $45.0 million.

And here’s the average figure: $43.3 million.

And here’s a histogram of all possible outcomes with also a Cuban flag in the background:

***

Likely Club
The crowd regards the New York Yankees as the most likely destination for Moncada, with roughly 48% of respondents guessing that he’ll end up with that club.

Here are the crowd’s responses in the form of a pie chart laid atop an image of Wade Boggs riding triumphantly upon a horse:

***

Signing Date
As reported by Kiley McDaniel on that same afternoon, Moncada finally became eligible to sign with a major-league club on Tuesday.

Here are the crowd’s estimates as to when he’ll do that:

This Week: 7%
Next Week: 41%
Feb. 16-28: 43%
March: 8%
Later: 1%

***

Analysis by Kiley McDaniel
After the initial, logical and source-supported buzz that the Yankees and Red Sox were the real contenders for Moncada early on, the Dodgers have now emerged as the leader. Between their willingness to spend big, their relatively quiet spending this off-season and the track record of their new top executives, most in the industry feel the Dodgers will go highest in the Moncada bidding.

With Tampa Bay, new Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman went over his international bonus pool twice, the most teams he could have possibly done it under the new rules. In their most recent pool-busting season, the Rays did it basically to sign one player, who most thought was the best player in the class (Dominican SS Adrian Rondon).

When he was the Assistant GM with the A’s, new Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi was instrumental is the small market team spending $36 million on Yoenis Cespedes, at a time when Cuban hitters didn’t have a great track record of MLB success. It probably doesn’t hurt that the Dodgers also have a distinct Cuban influence with Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Alex Guerrero and Erisbel Arruebarrena.

The Yankees probably need Moncada the most as their core players are aging out and, while the Bombers are trending up on the farm, they don’t have the elite and near MLB-ready talent that the Red Sox and Dodgers possess. That combined with the $30 million they spent on this year’s international crop (double the previous record) and the coming two-year penalty on high dollar international amateur spending makes the Yankees the most motivated to spend big. There have been some restraint for the Yankees on big-dollar signings in recent years compared to their previous standard, but Moncada wouldn’t have luxury tax implications, so he’s more akin to a big amateur outlay that would stand in for two years of spending, rather than a big league free agent.

The Red Sox are near full with bats in the upper levels and big leagues and have spent heavily this off-season, so they’re seen as more of a third team in this derby. There are some rumors of teams on the fringes that may get involved as a finalist (the Tigers, A’s, Braves, Giants, Brewers, Padres have all been mentioned by sources as likely to bid), but every indication I’ve gotten is that the next tier of teams is hoping the bonus is around $30 million so they can participate, with most thinking the price ends up at $40 million or more, likely knocking those teams out. The Rangers and Cubs have to sit out until July 2nd due to past overspending and, due to the Moncada camp’s desire to sign quickly, they’re all but eliminated despite efforts to get him to wait. The Dodgers then the Yankees is how the industry handicaps it at this point, with the Red Sox atop of group of interested teams that are likely not willing to spend quite enough to hang with the favorites.