Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 3/6/14

Eno Sarris: I’ll be here at the top of the hour!

Arnau Sabat:

Eno Sarris: Enjoy, in the mean time.

Eno Sarris: hey you guys

Comment From saskatunes
3 favorite War on Drugs tunes

Eno Sarris: That one, that one and that one. I just heard them for the first time this morning. In related news, I’m an old man with a toddler son. What’s funny about this is that it sounds like some sort of Fleetwood Mac plus Bruce Springsteen, and despite the fact that I don’t like either of those bands, I like this one!

Comment From Dr. Met
Just saying heya Eno! Still waiting on when that official NYC meetup will be.

Eno Sarris: Gotta get out there! Or make Petriello run it.

Comment From Guest
14-team mixed, 1 catcher auction. Best strategy to just spend $1 on whomever is left at the end?

Eno Sarris: Yes. I had a 14-teamer last night and waited forever and just took Miguel Montero third to last. I didn’t want AJ, and someone took Yan Gomes as a utility guy. So I guess I like about 12 catchers without reservation.

Comment From Vic
What would surprise you more from 2014 Billy Butler? 60/15/80/.280 or 70/25/100/.300

Eno Sarris: the one with the 25 homers. He hits so many ground balls!

Comment From Joe
Hey Eno! What do you think about Matt Kemp this year? I heard about his BP session where McGwire stated it was the best he’d ever seen and he did sprints yesterday. Waited on him all season last year before dealing him in the last month. Is he just mess in with us?

Eno Sarris: I thought he wasn’t going to be ready for the season, so yeah he’s a mess to project. Also, he K’ed too much when he was healthy, so I doubt he’s a .300 hitter ever again. And with the injuries, maybe the speed is going to go too.

Comment From Heard you on Colton & the Wolfman…
Great job, Eno. Wondering if viewership at Beergraphs and Fangraphs took a noticeable uptick after that segment.

Eno Sarris: No way FanGraphs would feel it, but BeerGraphs might have, We’re growing fast but still small.

Comment From Guest
Whats Yordano Ventura’s 2014 upside if Hochevar is done?

Eno Sarris: You mean done starting, right? Ventura, Duffy, Davis look like they’ll make up one starting spot as of now. They have to give up on Davis, and Ventura is better than Duffy, probably. On the other hand, Ventura’s secondary stuff leaves me cold, none of them have good whiff rates and he doesn’t throw them much. Duffy could sneak in.

Comment From j6takish
Have you seen Bryce Harper? Please explain to me how a naturally gifted profession athlete with access to the worlds finest training facilities can put on so much muscle in only 7 months? Seems suspicious to me

Eno Sarris: Thin mints!

Comment From Vic
Which multi-elib players do you like more? Prado or Zobrist?

Eno Sarris: Prado actually, but maybe they close. .290/15/5 vs .250/12/10?

Comment From Would you trade your 1st and 2nd picks for Trout and a 4th?
Hi Eno…I’m in a 12 team, 5×5 roto and I have the 11th pick. I’m debating offering my 1st and 2nd (pick 11 and 14) for the first pick and their 4th round pick (pick #48) Just off the top of your head, would you do it?

Eno Sarris: That’s trading Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki or Adrian Beltre for Mike Trout and Jean Segura, maybe? You know… I would. Trout is that good.

Comment From Average Sports Fan
Which former Diamondback do you prefer this year: Eaton or Davidson?

Eno Sarris: Eaton. Davidson has too many holes in his swing and questions about his defense.

Comment From Mark
Who is on the “injured, but should be back by May and contribute” list this year?

Eno Sarris: Cole Hamels, it looks like. Maybe Billingsley, maybe Jaime Garcia. Machado? Parnell?

Comment From Brian
What’s the ideal number of pitchers and hitters in a league where we keep seven?

Eno Sarris: Two pitchers.

Comment From jocephus
marketing strategy: E Knows

Comment From saskatunes
I totally pre-ordered the [expletive] out of Lost in the Dream. Added on Wagonwheel Blues too. Will be a happy day when that shows up in the mailbox.

Comment From Bearman
My own personal projection for Ryan Goins:

Eno Sarris: Well done, excellent interlude right out of the gate.

Comment From Joe
You think Billy Hamilton will stay in the majors all season? Similarly, what do you think about Dee Gordon’s prospects of starting or even platooning 2B?

Eno Sarris: You know, the Reds don’t really have another great option in center. I kinda think he might stick even with a .290 OBP. Gordon might actually factor in. With Sellers and Hairston and all their utility guys dried up finally, he could step in and be a bad backup defensive SS that can switch hit and play all around the infield. If Guerrero is bad against righties, then maybe there’s an actual role for Dee, as impossible as that has seemed at times in the past.

Comment From Lenard
How soon, if at all, do we see Addison Russell this year? The A’s don’t really have much at 2nd and Lowrie is certainly not a safe bet to stay healthy.

Eno Sarris: He’s closer than it might seem, too, since he did well in the AFL. I think they’ll want to give him at least 300 PA in Double-A though, so unless there’s a long-term injury to Lowrie, doubt we see Russell until the second half.

Comment From Guest
I’ve done a bunch of drafts, and always seem to end up with the same staff. Is Salazar, Sonny, Cobb, Samardzija and Cole good enough to keep repeating?

Eno Sarris: I love it, but you may want to sprinkle in some lower-variance lower-upside veterans in the middle of the staff.

Comment From Joe
Any chance Pujols returns to form?

Eno Sarris: Of course. Health would go a long way.

Comment From Evan
I traded Yu Darvish as a third round keeper for Freddie Freeman as a 10th round keeper in a points league. Good move?

Eno Sarris: Probably one round of surplus for five or more, so yeah.

Comment From Miketron
Hey Eno! A follow-up to what I asked in your AL-LABR article. You would choose Paxton over Keuchel if it was just a straight draft pick right?

Eno Sarris: Yeah, even with the crazy velocity numbers. I figured Paxton would go for more.

Comment From Vic
Stanton, Pedroia or someone else around Pick #22?

Eno Sarris: I like Pedroia there, sure. Stanton is okay, but he’s a one-category guy.

Comment From Joe
What do you think about Oswaldo Arcia? I drafted him in the last round of a 25-man draft, 12-team mixed. Mistake?

Eno Sarris: Nah, that’s a perfect place to take a shot. Problem with Arcia is that he’s a bit one-noted (power) and he plays in a park that suppresses power.

Comment From Joe
Mark Trumbo hits 40 bombs this year. True or false?

Eno Sarris: I love Trumbo, pushed his projections, have him rated higher than my co-rankers on this site, and only got him to .260/36. But that’s within range of 40.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
how surprising would the Astros have to be and how well would Correa have to hit in order to see him in september 2014?

Eno Sarris: Anywhere close to pace for .500 might be enough, there’s a bit of a backlash to some of their tanking, and you can see that this year they paid some money for actual players.

Comment From Brad
Eno, you are truly the man of the people. Anyone ever tell you to run for political office? And, any shot of Gausman making starting rotation out of camp? Thanks.

Eno Sarris: That’s pretty hilarious. I’m not a citizen and there are way too many things that would get me in trouble lol. I do love people though, which can be rare in the blogosphere. As for Gausman, I think he’s super sexy and the only guy with ace upside on that roster. Why would they have Boring Bud Norris in the rotation over that? (They might.)

Comment From Dino
Buster Olney tweeted this morning that Andrew Cashner could have a breakout season. His ADP is sure to rise. What’s the earliest you’d feel comfortable drafting him?

Eno Sarris: Checking my rankings because I love him too. Cashner moved from the bad slow slider to his hard knuckle slider in the second half last year and his strikeout rate took a lurch forward. Plus park and league and all that. I had him 35 among pitchers, between Cueto and Samardzija and Wacha and Shields.

Eno Sarris: There’s still some injury risk.

Comment From Vic
Carter Capps? I have him in the 27th round of a 15 team league? Throw back and redraft in rounds 30-34? Same question for Storen who I have in the 21st?

Eno Sarris: Yeah there’s some value there but no need to keep a reliever. You might get Vick Black in the 30th instead.

Comment From Lenard
Eno, I have questionnnssssss

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
Have you seen this? Between this and AB blocking their trademark for “The St. Louis Brewery”, Schlafly has some issues. http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/who-owns-the-right-to-the-schlafly-name/article_7d33e934-03e3-530a-86e7-f4c7a3bcffd8.html

Comment From StevePete
Thursday is the best… thank you for making it so.

Comment From Klingon Warrior
Experience Bij!

Comment From Guest
How do you decide on names for your dozens of teams? Same ones year to year?

Eno Sarris: I just realized that like seven or eight of my 12 teams are now dynasty or keeper, so they don’t even need names. And in my LABR/TOUT leagues, I have to use my real name. So I only get to name like three teams a year, and I usually just do some stupid baseball pun.

Comment From Compton
Are you sticking with your young-SP-centric approach this year? If so, who are this year’s names to be targeting?

Eno Sarris: It really worked well last year, and I guess in LABR I got Alex Cobb and Sonny Gray. But if you’re talking lower picks, it’s not as obvious this year. I like Alex Wood, Dan Straily, Drew Smyly, Kevin Gausman, and then a tier lower I like Jenrry Mejia, Tyler Skaggs (just because park and IP and chance of regaining velo) and James Paxton.

Comment From Lenard
Would you rather draft Justin Upton this year or wait a round and draft Heyward? Because of keepers, Heyward will definitely be drafted the round after Upton.

Eno Sarris: I have them separated by two bucks, which is just about a round lol.

Comment From Jon
How do you feel about Tommy Hunter, closer, this year?

Eno Sarris: Really really intensely meh. I mean, he could do it, but his splits aren’t great and the curve isn’t your power curve strikeout pitch, it’s the big yakker. I’d rather move Norris in there.

Comment From StevePete
Eno! Can you give me 4-5 awesome Holds RP for a Ottoneu FG points auction league???

Eno Sarris: Cody Allen, Danny Farquhar, Joaquin Benoit, Shawn Kelley, Mark Melancon, Sergio Santos, Jake McGee, Kelvin Herrera.

Comment From saskatunes
Will Kelly Johnson get enough playing time in NY to be a reliable util guy for fantasy? great position flexibility.

Eno Sarris: I’d take him for my bench in H2H, but I wouldn’t put him in a starting role. Not with the state of that infield seeming so.. in flux. It’s good in that he could get time at second and third, it’s bad in that the team might be looking for a more long-term solution out of their younger guys.

Comment From john
NL only while Zimmermann is the better pitcher, who would you rather target as a cheaper alternative in a trade Lance Lynn or Patrick Corbin?

Eno Sarris: Corbin. For sure. Corbin’s change is better than Lynn’s.

Comment From Jon
I’m looking at relievers to target who won’t start the year in the closer’s role, but should contribute 5×5 regardless, guys like Melancon, Brothers, Crain, Benoit, Clippard, Allen, Farquhar, Santos, Black, Soria, Scheppers… who stands out?

Eno Sarris: Santos, Crain, Allen, Farq, Melancon. But Brothers is the clear number one.

Comment From Co-founder of the USSMariner.com
why dont catchers ever have to make 40-60% or 60-90% plays?? the # is very low in their category on IE

Eno Sarris: Maybe it’s just hard to judge those. Like, a can of corn pop foul is easy. and the ones they really have to lunge for, easy. But something they kind of have to go get but not really?

Comment From Don
In a pts based dynasty league who would you prefer: Sal Perez, Brandon Belt, Brad Miller, Headley, Prado, Rasmus or Taijuan Walker? I am leaning Walker due to his prospecty-ness… None would really be a starter for me this year, if it matters.

Eno Sarris: Brad Miller plays shortstop and has power and speed.

Comment From Compton
I come for the baseball chat, stay for the ludes.

Comment From Terrible Ted
Isn’t the 59th minute also top of the hour, or am I not getting it?

Comment From jocephus
i imagine you saying “hey you guys” like sloth from the goonies

Eno Sarris: Exactly.

Comment From Mack
Most likely player to end up with -1 WAR or worse and still qualify for the batting title?

Eno Sarris: Emilio Bonifacio? Maybe not on that team. Rafael Furcal? Casey McGehee?

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
are you taking the 2013 infield shift data into account with valuing players for 2014? (moves to more shift happy divisions….players that are more prone to the shift not being as readily regressed in babip etc.?)

Eno Sarris: We’re doing some work on xBABIP with an infield pull% factor to try and factor this in. Matt Adams, for example, got shifted late in the season and his BABIP dropped precipitously.

Comment From Mike
With Stetson Allie starting the year in AA, do you think that he can ever become a solid Major Leaguer with the bat? And because he hasn’t been a hitter since high school, how much leeway can we give him regarding his age?

Eno Sarris: Age is also important from an athletic standpoint: reaction time, bat speed, that sort of thing. I am very skeptical that he can do anything more than Rick Ankiel it, and he’s playing first base so not even that really.

Comment From Off my Rocker
Who will be more valuable this year as a 3rd OF in a 5 CAT league, Khris Davis or Avisail Garcia?

Eno Sarris: I’d rather have Khrush, by a fair amount.

Comment From saskatunes
If you like Bruce Springsteen more, check out Wagonwheel Blues. If you like Fleetwood Mac more, check out Slave Ambient.

Comment From Fish
Cole Hamels 🙁

Comment From juan pierres mustache
every time my boss gets sick, he goes on and on about how he “never gets sick”. this has happened three times in the last three months, yet he continues to be convinced that he is immune to everything and these are all just anomalies

Eno Sarris: you’re on fire

Comment From quinceleather
A strategy–since pitching is so unpredictable and variable, wouldn’t it make sense to spend even more on hitting and a top closer or two and just take cheapish options on pitchers? just wondering if there are successful examples of that

Eno Sarris: That describes the general strategy right now. Some are trying to say that elite pitching is more projectable, and therefore elite pitching is worth it, but I dunno. I shop in the middle and avoid having to go for longshots.

Comment From Crusty
I’m losing in my Iditarod Fantasy contest! I can’t find any advanced metrics.

Comment From john
Please Eno. Terry Collins now says he might bat the pitcher 8th? Please tell me he is slowly going senile and will be replaced before he actually does anything stupid in the regular season

Eno Sarris: Oh good god that plus Eric Young maybe leading off is enough to make me want to eat a hat.

Comment From nerdy
Thanks for the chat! It’s my first year in a Ottoneu Fangraphs points league. Any advice for roster composition in terms of relief pitching? We just completed the first half of our auction draft, and so far I have Street ($6), Clippard, and Gregerson.

Eno Sarris: yeah, spend 3-6 bucks per, generally target holds guys, but iffy closers are a value since saves are worth a point more than holds. Get six probably.

Comment From SkeeterBarnes
Hey Eno, Thanks for Chatting. In my 3rd round 5×5 league (C. Davis/Gomez are keepers), I have choice of Reyes,Bruce, Choo, Rios. Who would you take??

Eno Sarris: I have Reyes, Choo and Bruce all separated by a dollar or two. It does seem like your team could use an MI though.

Comment From Jj
Is sano worth holding in a keeper fantasy league? Or keep sonny gray or brad miller?

Eno Sarris: Miller or Gray and that’s tough, like both, but probably the hitter since he plays SS.

Comment From John C
will Jesse Crain get the closing gig in Houston?

Eno Sarris: Maybe, but if he starts season on DL, Qualls gets first shot and the incumbent has to screw up to lose his job, generally.

Comment From Compton
How much will Choo’s production change going from the Reds lineup/Great American to the Rangers lineup/The Globe

Eno Sarris: More runs, don’t see a big power boost.

Comment From KJ
which is more common- a ground ball that produces a hit or a fly ball that produces a hit? Are line drives a different category altogether?

Eno Sarris: the batting average on GBs is like .230, FBs is like .200, and LDs is like .700.

Comment From Miketron
So in the podcast you said you don’t love Eric Hosmer. Why lie? We know that you have been making googly eyes at him for years.

Eno Sarris: I bought him in AL-LABR! I like him at a price. I think he can .280+/20/10-. But I don’t think a big power spike is coming, not with all those ground balls. Also, watch THT in the coming week for more on this name.

Comment From Terrible Ted
Best hangover cure?

Eno Sarris: Gatorade first. Then salty food and water.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
if we say that fangraphs is a star destroyer, what star wars vessel would be the appropriate comparison for beergraphs

Eno Sarris: x-wing

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
#sadterlude: I was really excited to grab Hochevar for $2 in my uber-deep 20-teamer for that sweet swingman SP/RP eligibility and potential to start (league where anyone throwing innings is useful). 🙁

Comment From Guest
Hochevar partial UCL tear, right?

Comment From Guest
which happens 1st Franklin traded or a FA signs?

Eno Sarris: Interesting question because teams looking for help at SS are both looking at Drew and Franklin. But with the Ervin Santana wrinkle, I say FA.

Comment From Ned
If you had to pick 1 of these guys to breakout, which would it be? Gyorko, M. Adams or K. Seager

Eno Sarris: I think Seager is pretty much sussed. I think Adams might be a tad over-rated, but would .265/26 be a breakout? It would, and it might be less than some expect. So I’ll go Gyorko, based on some more walks and perhaps a bit more power.

Comment From Ted
Can Matt Holliday keep this production up?

Eno Sarris: He’s going to start hitting the DL some day.

Comment From Brian
Can I draft/buy Yordano Ventura and expect him to be my #4 starting pitcher? Or just a bench/flier guy in a 12-team mixed league?

Eno Sarris: I’d prefer very much if he was on my bench.

Comment From Germano
Josh Hamilton 30 HR .260 with and .800 OPS?

Eno Sarris: under on power

Comment From Guest
I heard that the instant replay rule involves the managers throwing a red baseball at the umpires to initiate the challenge. Is this true?

Comment From john
Are bitcoins dead now?

Comment From Lenard
Enows What You Did Last Summer

Comment From Nafplion
Matt Adams or J Abreu?

Eno Sarris: Abreu!

Comment From Eric
How much should I downgrade Hamels with the recent news?

Eno Sarris: 1/6th at least!

Comment From Ceetar
Cole Hamels showing brokenness signs. Chance Phillies fall back to 5th beyond the Marlins?

Eno Sarris: The pitchers that might come in for him are CRAPTACULAR

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
are we in for a repeat of Bronson Arroyo’s 2011 if his back woes don’t clear up? (his GB% dove 5% that season and his HR/FB skyrocketed perhaps due to a lack of ability to get downhill plane on his pitches?)

Eno Sarris: I want NO shares of him this year. Not one.

Comment From Steve
I’m frantically trying to trade a cheap Beachy after watching yesterday’s outing. Is it too early to be getting nervous? He looked like a mess regardless of the decent line.

Eno Sarris: He needs command to be successful. I might have to watch that start now.

Comment From John C
which highly rated prospects will be called up earliest?

Eno Sarris: Andrew Heaney. Gregory Polanco. Noah Syndergaard. George Springer. Mark Appel. Marcus Stroman. Roughly in order.

Comment From City of San Diego
Is Tommy Medica a flash in the pan or is he legitimately good?

Eno Sarris: He was old for his levels and the upper minors parks for the Padres are hitters parks. There’s no pedigree, and the deck is stacked against him. I prefer Alonso by a long shot.

Comment From StartWedman
Why is everyone so down on Todd Frazier? Sure the BA could be better, but decent numbers at a shallow position this year.

Eno Sarris: Not much more projection I don’t think, but useful.

Comment From KB
I’m sure you’ve posted this before, but if you could again: Xander B.s’ projections for this year? I have agonized over him vs. Mauer for a month now for final keeper in a Keep 5/Keep Forever. Probably zero% chance I get Mauer back if I throw him back in the draft, maybe 75% chance I get XB, but not sure I want to take the 25% chance.

Eno Sarris: Something like .264/16/8 with a great OBP.

Comment From Chet Lemon
Will there be a master list of the Fangraphs Roto Rankings or just the existing one by position?

Eno Sarris: I doubt we can get to this tonight but there does seem like some love for this, so expect it soon.

Comment From Jim
Would you trade a $9 Uehara for a $13 Sonny Gray?

Eno Sarris: yes.

Comment From Guest
What percentage of hitting is bat speed and what percentage is pitch recognition? Baez looks like he could be a hall of famer based solely on bat speed while being below average at pitch recognition.

Eno Sarris: No idea how to answer this, or even to test it!

Comment From Ryan "Bat Speed" Braun
Am I climbing the ADP lists yet? Top 6 Player?

Eno Sarris: Yes he does seem to be climbing, up from around 10 to middle of the first round.

Comment From Chris
Would Prince a steal at $23 for 4×4 otto?

Eno Sarris: yes.

Comment From Dan
How much would you pay for Feliz in an AL only auction right now?

Eno Sarris: 4-5 at most, something like that. No velocity is bad news, has tons of competition.

Comment From Eminor3rd
I’m doing my first ever 5×5 draft next weekend. I’ve always done points leagues, and I’m afraid I’ll value players incorrectly. What are some basic things I need to keep in mind to avoid such pitfalls?

Eno Sarris: Sort baseball for batting average and stolen bases because you’re not used to thinking about them. Read the list.

Comment From Bichete
Carlos Gomez….270 AVG, 25 hrs, 40 steals good possibility?

Eno Sarris: Under on average and homers, but not by a ton.

Comment From Chris
Is almonte worth a flier for cheap?

Eno Sarris: In deeper leagues, yes. With news that Ackley is in LF and Saunders in CF, there’s already 1/3 playing time open for Almonte.

Comment From Lenard
No citizenship? Can you and Cistulli trade?

Eno Sarris: I’m an EU citizen with a greencard, and that absolutely would have helped Carson this year.

Comment From Nathanael
Were Greg Maddux (in his prime) to pitch to Pablo Sandoval (in his prime) 1000 times in a row, how many BB would Pablo get? How many HR?

Eno Sarris: 30 walks? 20 homers?

Comment From Gila Monater
Thoughts on Julio Teheran? Looking at pitch values and whiffs, he seeming has a great fastball and slider. His curve and changeup get above average whiffs too.

Eno Sarris: Yeah it’s all there. What’s missing is a willingness to throw the change more. That’s the only strange thing.

Comment From Marty
Thoughts on Garza? Better pitch framer, decent D behind him…he’s being drafted around AJ Burnett / Corbin / Bucholz. How would you order them? I think I go Corbin / Garza / Bucholz / AJ

Eno Sarris: Agree, though I might have AJ ahead of CB based on IP. DECIPHER THAT MUMBO JUMBO

Comment From Nelson Doubleday
The New York Mets with a 90 million dollar payroll. What a joke. 90 million= 90 wins.

Eno Sarris: Eh Braves been doing it for about the same.

Comment From Sadwick
You could still run for something, plenty of political positions don’t require citizenship and just ask yourself this: are any of the things that might get me into trouble politically worse than, or even on par with, what current politicians have already done?

Eno Sarris: This is true. But then I have to ask: Do I have the cash to fund a campaign. No, so very no.

Comment From Miketron
Seems like Jose Abreu is going to get so much helium that he loses his value.

Eno Sarris: Totally possible. I have him below Pujols for example. And Ortiz. And Butler.

Comment From centerfield_ballhawk
Rank these closers in the order that you’d take them… Jones, Axford, Hunter, Brothers, Veras.

Eno Sarris: Veras, Axford, Brothers, Jones …… Hunter

Comment From Fish
So, I know spring training and junk pitches and guys wearing numbers that start with 8 and 9. But, would looking at Everth Cabrera’s contact rate be a good idea before my draft?

Eno Sarris: At the very least, it’s a per-pitch metric, and it’s very key to his upcoming year.

Comment From Joe
Got laughed at at the draft table for not taking a single SP till round 12 (12-team mixed). My SPs: Salazar, Ryu, Corbin, Kluber, Ross, Griffin, Straily, A. Wood, and J. Johnson. Who gets the last laugh?

Eno Sarris: Yeah looks pretty good to me.

Comment From BlazinOptimo
Jose Fernandez or Chris Sale??

Eno Sarris: Sale

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
You can’t beat names of defunct franchises for fantasy team names. The Cleveland Spiders or Worcester Ruby Legs is pure class

Eno Sarris: Cleveland Spiders from Mars

Comment From Guest
How do you feel about your Labr squad?

Eno Sarris: Really good actually. I know they’re young, but that means they’re pre-peak, and most of them have job security.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Man….target the young guys Eno ISN’T touting….if you play in a good league most of your leaguemates knwo Eno’s guys too…..

Eno Sarris: Plus, Lucas Duda.

Comment From Compton
At what point in the season does Dean Anna get a starting role. Follow up: how many days after that will he be 100% owned in ESPN and Yahoo?

Eno Sarris: No idea. I bought him in LABR mostly because he’s a lefty on the infield with great contact rates, and some power and speed. And that infield sucks. But it’s a shot in the dark.

Comment From Phil
Tried the Indira Stout from Ballast Point? Not sure if I hate it or love it

Eno Sarris: Is that the one that tastes like Indian food?

Comment From centerfield_ballhawk
How would you utilize Brandon Moss in weekly leagues? I was attracted by the position eligibility and the power, but now I’m having buyers remorse.

Eno Sarris: Yeah he’s still going to platoon and 520 PA or so has to be his ceiling. But he has power, so it’s all good.

Comment From jocephus
how often do you question/think twice re: zips results? or do you? (im terrible at coming up with questions)

Eno Sarris: I don’t question them, I just use ZiPs, Steamer and the Fans to create a range of projections. Then I pick my projection somewhere in the middle of that range, sometimes closer to the Fans if I’m feeling frisky.

Comment From Slack Schpeinke
what!! you don’t have Wacha above 35?!! what am I missing here?????

Eno Sarris: None of us did. He does need to work on a third pitch to get same-handed batters out. Boston jumped on his fastball and put a book out on him.

Comment From NeverEnoughSpeed
I’ve keeping an eye on Billy Burns out of Oakland. Speed + a potential .400 OBP. Do you see any chance that he makes an impact this year?

Eno Sarris: Gentry and Crisp probably have it figured out. I think Burns is a little bit more of a longer-term asset. But fun to watch.

Comment From Vin
Are you worried about pitchers who are having injury issues currently? (Latos, Hamels, Greinke, Verlander, Iwakuma, etc.)

Eno Sarris: Past injury concerns beget future ones.

Comment From Sean
More upside, Tyson Ross or Jose Quintana?

Eno Sarris: Ross, I guess, but he has a lower floor and they both don’t have super high ceilings. Q has a good curve and some deception, okay command. Ross has a great great slider, velocity, terrible mechanics, and no change.

Comment From NapolisDeadHips
shot in the dark eno, first closer to lose their gig via injury/ineffectiveness?

Eno Sarris: Latroy Hawkins. Oh, he might have already done it. hmmm. Rafael Soriano elbow tenderness?

Comment From Marty
Personally, I welcome seeing Bartolo Colon getting more at bats in the 8 spot, but that’s just me.

Comment From Phil Mckrakin
BEst hangover cure is Pho

Comment From Justin
The only real downside of Opening Day drawing nearer is the increasing coherence of these chats.

Comment From Stockholm Syndrome
A beer and a baseball question. Beer first! We are escaping the Swedish state-run alochol system for a month this summer. Any favourite breweries to visit between Portland and San Fran?

Eno Sarris: This can help http://beergraphs.com/leaderboards/breweries/?q=&region=us_pac&min_solid_s=0&max_solid_s=100.0&min_solid_pct=0&max_solid_pct=100.0&min_bar25=-9&max_bar25=270.0&min_bar=-102&max_bar=543.0 but Russian River is a must, Cascade is probably too. Elysian, Lagunitas. Drake’s.

Comment From Stockholm Syndrome
as for baseball, due to draft-pick trading I have Trout, Miggy and Kershaw as my 3 keepers in a 12 team Roto League. But no draft picks until round 9. What would be the optimal strategy here?

Eno Sarris: Guess you have to hit hitting hard while others are going pitching. I usually am looking for pitching in those rounds. Keep your eyes open, but think about SPs and MIs.

Comment From JBD
Where are you drafting Javier Baez?

Eno Sarris: In re-drafts? Bench or not at all.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Is there a good enough chance Mailel Franco gets significant 2014 AB’s that I can live with David Freese at 3B in the interim?

Eno Sarris: Yes. Apparently Asche has looked atrocious at third.

Comment From STiVo
A good DC brewery (Atlas) is coming out with an IPL. What to expect from an IPL?

Eno Sarris: Sorta like a session pale ale. Weak by ABV, some good hopping.

Comment From Marty
Revisiting a comment from a month ago, when you told me to withihold judgement, I’ll ask again: how bad is Archer now?!?!

Eno Sarris: I’ll agree it’s not as good as before, though I can’t quite put my finger on why. It’s not like the change was really a change, after all.

Comment From john
I live in Wilmington, NC. This Spring, we are getting 4 new breweries in the general area. Which is great, bc the one brewery we already have does not make good beer.

Comment From Sadwick
On a more serious note, there was a study done by some grad students to find the best hangover cure. Conclusion: bacon sandwich. The fat and salts help you rebound quickly and the bread provides carbs for energy.

Comment From Fish
is there a spreadsheet somewhere that already averages out ZiPS and Steamer or am I going to have to do that myself?

Eno Sarris: I have that. Maybe I can fill the rankings spreadsheet with that. So many things to do!

Comment From DirtWolf Double IPA
Am I as dangerous as my name sounds?

Eno Sarris: so so so good

Comment From MarkDavis4Life!
with s much volatility at the cloer spot, can I justify spending some solid picks on Kimbrel AND Chapman/Holland?

Eno Sarris: They can still get injured.

Comment From Guest
In a keeper league with openings at all these positions would you take Brad Miller, Travis D’arnaud, or Profar?

Eno Sarris: miller

Comment From Wade Ortega
Eno, how much bump does Rajai Davis get with the Dirks surgery?

Eno Sarris: A sizeable one!

Comment From Serious Beer Question
Eno! Help me out… this may be out of your range of expertise, but maybe the chatters can help. I am rolling through Nashville and Memphis and am looking for good brewery recommendations.

Eno Sarris: http://beergraphs.com/leaderboards/breweries/?min_bar25=-9&s-bar25=-1&min_bar=-102&region=us_us&min_solid_pct=0&q=&max_bar=543.0&max_bar25=270.0&max_solid_pct=100.0&max_solid_s=100.0&min_solid_s=0

or just TN: http://beergraphs.com/leaderboards/breweries/?cc=US&state=TN

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
You buying the Trevor Bauer post hype sleeper re-hype?

Eno Sarris: Love to have him for a buck in an AL-only.

Comment From Eric
Are you on board with the massive hype for Javier Baez?How much concern is the plate discipline?

Eno Sarris: Bust rates on prospects with those kinds of walk and strikeout rates are fairly high, actually. I might shop him if I owned him. (I don’t.)

Comment From Terrible Ted
After what appeared to be a breakout, is Domonic Brown now getting close to the underrated tag? No one seems to believe.

Eno Sarris: Yeah with more PA this year, I think he can do pretty much the same thing.

Comment From Seattle Slough
And now for something completely differnt, Carlos Gomez.

Comment From Steve
Two of three here: Mejia, Paxton, and Duffy.

Eno Sarris: Mejia and Paxton, as much as I still have a bit of hope for Duffy. Only problem with Mejia is injury — his career high is like 110 IP. Love the new slider.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
BYO Indian restaurant tonight. Should I bring Hop Suplex (2xIPA), Saison de Lente, Stochasticity, or Old Guardian? LH Nitro Milk Stout an option too but I haven’t found that to be a great option with food

Eno Sarris: I think you’ll want the DIPA because Indian food brings BIG BOLD flavors and your saison will just be water.

Comment From Riley
Article Idea: You guys talk about plate discipline and how it translates at the big league level. Would love to see an article quantifying the average. Example: On average a player with a 20% K-rate and 10% walk rate in AA/AAA typically sees X% increase in K-rate/decline in walk rate.

Eno Sarris: That’s a problem because the correlation is low. K and BB rates can tell you about the likelihood of a prospect succeeding in bigs, but they tell you less about their actual MLB K and BB rates, if that makes sense.

Comment From Steve
Do you take any of this Miller battling Franklin stuff for the ss job seriously?

Eno Sarris: Nobody I’ve talked to that watches the Mariners thinks Franklin is a shortstop.

Comment From Chorizo Popsicle
Hey Enosaurus. Im probably just really dumb, but I can’t figure out the “auction values” link on rotographs “draft tools” sidebar. Every time i click on it it just seems to take me to the projections page. I know I must be missing something obvious.

Eno Sarris: You are not. I should break the link, but we’re working on something nice.

Comment From Fish
CRAPTACULAR is being kind to Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, David Buchanan, Jeff Manship and Sean O’Sullivan

Comment From Dan
Dude, I am just POUNDING bubblegum flavored Trident right now.

Comment From You Pickem
CarGo or Braun?

Eno Sarris: My values say Cargo but my projection says .285/27/13 for Braun.

Comment From Hope so
Grady Sizemore have anything left?

Eno Sarris: They say they not sure he can play every day and I say uh-oh.

Comment From Chris B.
If bat speed was everything, Rickie Weeks would be sitting on 250 million Mariners doubloons.

Comment From American League Hustle
Pay $45 for Darvish or $30 for Shields in an AL-only auction?

Eno Sarris: neither.

Comment From Terrible Ted
Is there any hope for Chris Carter’s BA?

Eno Sarris: No. It could actually get worse.

Comment From jocephus
any way you can run zips on the team from “major league”. i’d love to know what dorn was capable of

Comment From Fish
wait. EU citizen is a thing? Not a German citizen?

Eno Sarris: Well, yeah I’m German, but I’ve held on to it a bit more because EU than any thought I’d go back to Germany to live. Wish they’d let me double up.

Comment From Fish
the Maddux/Panda thing but with Vlad because duh.

Eno Sarris: I think I’d give him 20 walks but up the homers to 40 or so.

Comment From Fish
my theory is that the Phillies shifting is really just a sly way of Asche auditioning for 2B

Eno Sarris: Throwing is part of the problem, and Utley’s knees are degenerative. So, yeah.

Comment From STiVo
I am way high on Gerrit Cole–higher than Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, and Kevin Gausman. Does that sound right?

Eno Sarris: Yes.

Eno Sarris: I made a gentleman’s bet with Lawr Michaels, I took Cole, he took Gray.

Comment From Mat
NL Only league, $10 Ike Davis, $1 Mike Olt or a $2 Oscar Tavares?

Eno Sarris: Oscar actually! And I’m not sure about his PT this year.

Comment From Marty
Few seasons ago I played against the 1864 Wabash Mashers. Best. Name. Ever.

Comment From Terrible Ted
Did you see Brian Wilson’s knuckleball? http://wapc.mlb.com/cutfour/2014/03/04/68690860/brian-wilsons-first-pitch-of-the-year-was-a-knuckleball

Comment From quinceleather
Baseball is like church, many attend few understand.

Comment From brett
if you look at actual baseballmonster values from last season, miggy was twice as valuable (or more) as every hitter after McCutchen (who ranked 6th overall hitter). What’s your opinion on this? If that’s the case, doesn’t wouldn’t it make sense to spend basically whatever Mig costs in an auction rather than buy a later first rounder for considerably more than half of what mig costs?

Comment From brett
Miggy or a later first and second rounder?

Eno Sarris: Miggy, see? yeah the only thing that I wondered about my AL-Labr draft is if I should have gone to 43 on Miggie. Might not have mattered, I wouldn’t have gone to 45.

Comment From Guest
I tend to wait til the fourth round to select my “ace”, and I suspect the two top guys available will be Bumgarner and Sale. What’s the cae for one vs the other?

Eno Sarris: NL and mechanics to Bumgarner.

Comment From Average Sports Fan
Speaking of Duda. Any chance he ends up with the Mets 1b job?

Eno Sarris: Yes but not sure when. Might be after mid-season trade.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
every time i read dean anna’s name out loud, it makes me think that De-Nana would be a great name for a service that comes to your house and removes your bananas. (or a hospital that offers euthanization, but…maybe not that so much)

Comment From Jono
A few months back, frequent commenter HSCHER mentioned that he was training his eventual work replacement. I have shown up at these chats every week since wondering if this was the week he won’t be around. Nothing from him yet this week. I’m worried.

Eno Sarris: oh noes!

Comment From Sadwick
I liked the Boston Beaneaters for a defunct franchise name.

Comment From Animal Style
What position do you find yourself waiting on longest (besides P and C)? Seems like third-tier 2b has the best bargains relative to the prices of the top-tier.

Eno Sarris: Outfielders. There are so many!

Comment From Wild Bill H.
If you had to go 5/4/3 on zips, steamer, fans, how would you go?

Eno Sarris: Love Zips and Steamer, and Steamer just updated their pitching so… hard to choose there. Fans three for sure.

Comment From Mat
You seem to be higher on Rendon than most, does .270/13/60/65 sound about right?

Eno Sarris: Yeah and my projections have (slight) overs on BA and HR.

Comment From E
Why does Delino Deshields have a zips projection?

Eno Sarris: JR?

Comment From Brad
Your enoites will fund your campaign

Comment From GSon
Coherence is overrated

Comment From Honey Nut Ichiros vs. Jeters Never Prosper
What’s wrong with punny fantasy baseball team names?

Comment From E
Would you rather have Chris Davis power or Billy Hamilton speed? not for fantasy or real life baseball, but you, eno, you.

Eno Sarris: I play a little more basketball than softball and plenty people have great power in softball. Hamilton speed.

Comment From john
Tell me something nice about Didi! As in, he is starting SS opening day

Eno Sarris: I think if he’s not starting in Arizona, he could be starting in New York, so the floor is decent.

Comment From Terry Collins
I’m actually going to bat the pitcher lead off this year. You know, get him out of the way.

Comment From Archer, Sterling Archer
Archer is still the best- the House Call episode (2 weeks ago) was top 5 all time

Comment From Mark
Archer is still Archer. Shows are good, bar too high.

Comment From Gila Monster
Fun Fact: Kimbrel’s Curveball allowed 0 Fly Balls in play last year. 0.

Comment From Jono
Magic Hat #9 was one of the first “great” craft beers. What happened to the brewery? they’re a dog now?

Eno Sarris: I think they got bought, haven’t done anything new in a while.

Comment From Saison Bernice
Earliest you take a top flight closer in a 12 team league? In other words, keeping Holland in the 13th is ok, right?

Eno Sarris: Yes, that’s fine. I start looking a them in the 8th/9th.

Comment From Jon
Going to be in Florida this weekend for baseball! Besides Cigar City, any brews I should be looking for?

Eno Sarris: Terrapin is down there too.

Comment From LarryA
Im in scottsdake now. Why is it such a beer wasteland here. No good bottleshops even

Eno Sarris: Papago!

Comment From Matt
Archer isn’t as good because it has become Archer,Cheryl and Pam.

Comment From Slack Schpeinke
btw, where did you rank Harvey this time last year?

Eno Sarris: checking

Eno Sarris: I was the most aggressive and had him 39.

Comment From LarryA
Can Derrick Norris break out a little bit? He has some good minors seasons under his belt

Eno Sarris: He mashes lefties but 29% Ks and .097 ISO against righties has been his problem so far.

Comment From E
Is Mike Trout Hopslam? Is Jeff Franceour Coors Light?

Eno Sarris: Mike Trout should be Pliny the Younger because he’s worth a pilgrimage.

Comment From LarryA
Im going to the new cubs park tomorrow. any idea of the beer selection?

Eno Sarris: Actually I think the old Cubs park had Dale’s.

Comment From E
Hole Camels

Comment From Gila Monster
The phrase MoneyBall should be banned from everything.

Comment From dude
Duuuuuuuuuude

Comment From Bruce
Eno, you gotta get to AZ Wildeness brewing in Gilbert (Phoenix) next week. Its far and away the best option out here

Eno Sarris: They showed up in my fantasy beer post today on BG, so yeah.

Comment From JohnnyFive
I just cut into my avocado. It’s brown inside and looks like death. DAY RUINED.

Comment From LarryA
Morneau or Howard?

Eno Sarris: Morneau.

Comment From That Guy
Who has the best outfield arm in baseball?

Eno Sarris: Puig? Martin?

Comment From Terrible Ted
Germany: biggest post-hype sleeper.

Eno Sarris: Were they ever hyped?

Comment From Eno this!
Eno! I have been doing some research on phenoms that pitch lights out their first year, and realize in year 2 (first full year) their performance is no where near as good as expected. You see any truth to that as applied to Cole, Wacha, Cingrani, Miller, Gray, etc.

Eno Sarris: Oh I regressed all those guys and still liked what I saw. I mean, yeah Jose Fernandez won’t be as good as he was last year. He’ll still be good.

Comment From Alan
Regarding the Beachy start mentioned earlier, the change up looked like a true out pitch and the command wasn’t that bad.

Comment From Joe
In my experience, the name Joe is not quite as common as one might think, but it shows up in chats a lot

Comment From JoeyBelle
I went to see the Angels play yesterday and the OF was Boesch, Cowgill and Someone named Matt Long.

Eno Sarris: Spring training!

Comment From Brian
Will I be ok if Jon Jaso or Derek Norris is my starting catcher in a 12-team, 23 starter Ottoneu Fangraphs points league?

Eno Sarris: Problem is that it’s still a 12-teamer. Norris v LHP is fine, but not sure if Jaso v RHP is going to be enough, even with the walks.

Comment From Eddie
How about the Brooklyn Cake-Eaters?

Comment From j6takish
Wily Mo Pena Mo Problems

Comment From James
Which of these would you prefer to stash in a dynasty? Correa, Lindor, Russell.

Eno Sarris: Russell for me.

Comment From E
What is the baseball equivalent of a missed open dunk/layup? Dropped pop up?

Eno Sarris: yup

Comment From Ol Dirty Bastardo
Are IPL’s the new thing in 14 Fathom was tasty

Comment From JT
I just bought a sixer of a raspberry wheat ale from {name redacted}, but it has the single worst after taste I’ve ever encountered in a beer (something like burnt soap and Oprah’s feet). What do you do with the rest of the other case?

Eno Sarris: You put it in the back of your fridge at your next (x) parties and hope someone picks it up.

Comment From E
No, not Delino Deshilds Jr, Delino Deshields. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=275&position=2B

Eno Sarris: Strange, that.

Comment From nerdy
What’s your take on my rotation in a 12-team Ottoneu Fangraphs league? Gio, Cole, Latos, Bailey, Iwakuma

Eno Sarris: thumbs up

Comment From Nick
How much would you value Trout in a first time OttoNeu draft?

Eno Sarris: Keepable under 50, draftable under 60

Comment From quinceleather
Rh-ENO-cerous!!! your pitching calls are eggcellent

Comment From Jake
Is goldy the lock for my 3rd overall pick ???

Eno Sarris: I can’t push anyone else that high.

Comment From Guest
WHy doesn’t Cingrani ever get any love? He dominated the minor a great krates his first year…

Eno Sarris: I like him, but it’s just one pitch. Want to see more.

Comment From The Stranger
None of breweries in Maine get any love on Beergraphs. Lack of exposure, or is the beer seriously that much better everywhere else?

Eno Sarris: the new brewery metrics LOVE Maine Beer Company. Top five in three metrics.

Comment From Ol Dirty Bastardo
Hameltoe

Comment From Archer, Sterling Archer
Dylan Bundy- any value this year? thoughts in general?

Eno Sarris: If you have like three DL slots, he’s a good pickup late in a draft.

Comment From Meano Eno
WHAT IF THEY GET BETTER ENO. WHAT IF THEY GET BETTER

Eno Sarris: The pitchers? Well if Wacha’s cutter, Gray’s change get better, sure, they can get better. G Cole under-rated by the fact that he didn’t use his offspeed much in first half, his K rate went up when he started to.

Comment From Ryan
Salazar in the 10th?..segura in the 9th?..castro in the 8th?..or cobb in the 14th?..pick 2 points league

Eno Sarris: I like Segura in 9th best. I have him second at SS.

Comment From Guest
Wait, hold on, just got here. How can you not like Fleetwood Mac? I’m not taking your fantasy advice anymore.

Comment From Joe
This is the year for CARLOS QUENTIN!

Eno Sarris: For some reason I love those two together.

Comment From Phil Mckrakin
Im in my first points league this year with one catcher. 14 team where would you look to pick up a catcher

Eno Sarris: Very very late.

Comment From AL-LABR Guy
At your AL-LABR auction, Darvish goes for $28 and a host of decent-to-good arms go for around $18. Doesn’t that make Darvish a great value in comparison?

Eno Sarris: With injuries, I’d prefer to spread my pitching risk around.

Comment From Joe
Did you even consider that Domonic brown might be the greatest player of all time?

Eno Sarris: No, I did not!

Comment From Jay
Regarding Wacha: Not disputing your ranking but do you seriously ding him that much for one bad game? The fact that it was the last game of the World Series doesn’t change the fact that it was the absolute smallest of sample sizes… and he held the same team to 3 hits a week prior.

Eno Sarris: No, those were possible reasons for regression. My projection has regression baked in, doesn’t need a reason: 183 13 0 164 3.54 1.2

Comment From brett
all of the 2b and 3b options – besides the few at the top, make me sick. what shall I do?! Could you bring yourself to starting Brad Miller and Chase Headley to start the year? OBP league, so Headley does get a bump

Eno Sarris: Yeah I’d be fine with that, but I’d like to supplement with some upside at third somehow. Arenado, Asche, Franco, something.

Comment From Joe
how long is a ottoneu draft? Also, I think saves should be the same as hlds because closer get more saves and are still more valuable

Eno Sarris: The first draft is really long, you have to draft 40 players x 12 teams. After that they settle in around 3 hours.

Comment From Jake
Is taking Hanley over goldy at 3 a dumb move? Or could it pay off

Eno Sarris: Given his injury history, I don’t like it.

Comment From Slack Schpeinke
strange that u can’t push Chris Davis past Goldy.

Eno Sarris: Not with this projection 621 557 85 98 38 4 0.276

Comment From Joe
jeff Francoer defense highlights are my favorite kind of highlights. One more year.

Comment From Pat
What % of budget do you ration for hitters/pitchers in a standard auction?

Eno Sarris: 68/32. If you go by positions, should be 60/40 in most leagues, but I move it because pitchers are about 25% less projectable than hitters, and they get injured more, stay injured longer.

Comment From Eddie
How about a Rotographs article on ESPN RP with SP eligibility?

Eno Sarris: Check this list first http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/relievers-who-have-sp-eligibility-in-yahoo/

Comment From LarryA
Do you get depressed when commenters bash your team in the comments section after a column?

Eno Sarris: I actually loved that team so much that a little dash of realism only brought me back to I feel great about this team.

Comment From Ruben
First time in an Ottoneu league. Best place for advice?

Eno Sarris: Chad Young, the ‘ottoneu’ tag on RotoGraphs, and FG+ for the auction values.

Comment From JT
HAMELTOE and OLD DIRTY BASTARDO are gold, Jerry! GOLD!

Comment From JT
I don’t care if he doesn’t like Fleetwood Mac. BUT THE DOOBIE BROTHERS SHALL NOT BE DENIED. What a fool believes he sees!

Comment From LarryA
When you talk about ratios there- arent the values for pitchers already lower than hitters based on the projectability/injuries?

Eno Sarris: injuries perhaps yes, but not projectability, that’s not baked into values unless you move the P/H mix.

Comment From brett
are you all going to make ’10 bold predictions’ again?

Eno Sarris: yes very soon

Comment From Ol Dirty Bastardo
Are you a Giants A’s fan or both?

Eno Sarris: Family members are Giants fans. I root for great moments.

Comment From LarryA
Do you bring a glove to games?

Eno Sarris: Nah, I usually bring my computer to work.

Eno Sarris: I gotta podcast!

Eno Sarris: Thanks for hanging out!

Comment From Sadwick
May the beer be with you.