Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 7/31/14
by Eno Sarris
July 31, 2014
| 11:52 |
: I’m here! Barely! Much reduced.
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| 11:52 |
:
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| 12:00 |
Lester for Cespedes? Who in the blue blazes saw that one coming?!?!? Overall thoughts on the blockbuster? |
| 12:01 |
: It’s crazy. I don’t think I like it. They have to score some, too, and I thought Cespedes — who might be slightly overvalued — was a good foil to Donaldson and Moss. I like going three deep in the middle.
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| 12:01 |
: Of course that rotation is pretty sweet now.
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| 12:02 |
Is giving up Taveras in a 14 team keeper where he will be $9 next year worth it for a 2 month rental of Madison Bumgarner? Need a pitching boost. |
| 12:02 |
: Flags fly and Taveras still has a 45% bust rate or so.
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| 12:02 |
What range do you put Kluber at in keeper pitcher rankings going into next year? |
| 12:02 |
: Top 20 at least.
|
| 12:03 |
Thoughts on Kennys Vargas for ROS? Better than say Singleton or Juan Francisco? |
| 12:03 |
: I’ll take him over JF if you need speed.
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| 12:03 |
Will Mookie Betts be starting in the majors come game one of the 2015 season? |
| 12:03 |
: He’s ready. By May 1, sure.
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| 12:04 |
Rumors the Nats are interested in Daniel Murphy or Asdrubal Cabrera. Anybody to replace Espinosa. What would it take? |
| 12:05 |
: I don’t think it needs to be Giolito, but it needs to be nice in case of Murphy at least, he’s under control another year I think. Cole and Souza?
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| 12:05 |
Owning Hiroki Kuroda makes me nervous ROS. Should it? |
| 12:05 |
: He’s faded in the past but highish ERA and good WHIP should be manageable all season.
|
| 12:06 |
I was thinking about what Yoenis’ next contract might look like and the best comp I could think of was Jason Werth in 2011. The 7/126 he got was an overpay by WAS but with how salaries have risen do you think Yoenis gets something like 6/100? |
| 12:06 |
: I think people will give him a bit too much for a threeish win guy.
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| 12:06 |
Chris Taylor vs. Brad Miller: how does the battle play out ROS, and who will be starting in Seattle next season? |
| 12:07 |
: No idea. The city itself is split. If Taylor puts up a nice batting average, though, it won’t matter that Miller probably has a better true talent walk rate and maybe defense.
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| 12:07 |
Did you see MLBN post the fake Rosenthal tweet? Even worse, Ken is in the building with them! |
| 12:07 |
: LOLz.
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| 12:08 |
Quintana or Kuechel RoS? (Assuming Keuchel stays in H-town, I guess) |
| 12:08 |
: Keuchel safer because of all those GBs.
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| 12:08 |
got a shot at playoffs this year in H2H, thinking about trading trout for a package with either stanton or cutch in return, should i do it? 4 man keeper leage |
| 12:09 |
: At least you’re not falling too far. Depends on how nice your shot is.
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| 12:09 |
Was thinking more about the Astros draft situation next year and they’ll likely have $18M or so to spend. How possible is it that peanut buttering that over the first 10 rounds nets more than if they had signed the trio in the ’14 draft? |
| 12:10 |
: they could get three or four undervalued guys, but I believe Houston when it says they offered Aiken five mill and Close didn’t return phone calls. they wanted to sign the guy, had medical concerns. I’m not qualified to comment on the medical concerns.
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| 12:10 |
Thanks for chatting, Eno! With the Royals end up with a new bat? If so, who? |
| 12:10 |
: Not a lot of bats out there. Rios… and?
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| 12:11 |
does cespedes value go up now that hes in fenway? |
| 12:11 |
: Yes!
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| 12:11 |
Going to see Giolito pitch tonight if it doesn’t rain. Best spot to sit right behind home plate? |
| 12:11 |
: Of course. Got to see the breaks!
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| 12:11 |
Marcus Stroman, ace? |
| 12:11 |
: If the change improves even just slightly from just below average to just above average, and he retains velocity for a few years… yes.
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| 12:11 |
Tell me it’s ok to drop Mark Trumbo? Or try and trade him for anything? |
| 12:12 |
: Not ok to drop. HIs hard-hit percentage is still good, so his xBABIP is way higher than what he’s showing.
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| 12:12 |
On a scale of 1 to Kershaw, how much do you love what the Athletics are doing today? |
| 12:12 |
: Scott Kazmir.
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| 12:12 |
CHAAAOOOOOSSSSSSSSSS! AHHHHHHHHHH!!!! |
| 12:12 |
: yup
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| 12:12 |
Hunter Harvey 🙁 |
| 12:12 |
: Hopefully just a precaution?
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| 12:13 |
: Milone to the Twins is hilarious.
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| 12:13 |
ugh Ruben. Why you gotta be such a buzzkill? |
| 12:13 |
: Cause tomorrow must die.
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| 12:14 |
Dynasty league. Who do you like better Bogaerts and Teheran or Machado and Stras? |
| 12:14 |
: I’ll take the shortstop and the younger pitcher.
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| 12:14 |
David Price – traded or no? |
| 12:14 |
: No. I think people will find their price unreasonable and how many Addison Russells are out there anyway.
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| 12:15 |
Hey Dodgers how does this sound: Pederson, Seager, and Urias for Marlon Byrd. No? OK TALKS OVER |
| 12:15 |
Surprised by what the Cardinals gave up for Masterson? What do you think of Ramsey? |
| 12:15 |
: Well, Ramsey is 24 and the strikeout rate could go either way and they have a few outfielders, so once they decided to make the move, I guess it wasn’t that crazy.
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| 12:16 |
I dropped Kluber after his bad April. Thought I’d bought into unwarranted hype, and in a H2H points league, you can’t wait too long to make moves or you’ll get buried. At least, that’s what I tell myself to stop the tears. |
| 12:16 |
: You may want to move a bit faster in H2H, or you may not: it’s easier to turn a season around in H2H (you don’t have to push the rock back up the roto categories) so you can actually go further down in standings at first.
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| 12:16 |
: That’s not helping.
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| 12:16 |
Why in the world would the Stros say that Qualls is unavailable? |
| 12:17 |
: Cause they own him next year and they’re probably just trying to get more for him?
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| 12:17 |
How are you calculating bust rates for prospects? |
| 12:18 |
: Top ten hitter is about 40%, pitcher 50%. That moves depending on their K, BB and ISO rates. Google JAVIER by Chris St. John and the Royals Review article about success rates of prospects.
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| 12:18 |
How does a league average starting pitcher just entering arbitration only net you Sam Fuld? I find it hard to believe that Millone couldn’t have been used to acquire a competent second baseman. |
| 12:19 |
: Perhaps his public comment changed the tone of what was being offered? Plus, he’s leaving a pitchers park, and though you can adjust for park, teams probably eye his swing and miss stuff and velocity (or lack there of) and wonder if he can keep being average.
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| 12:19 |
thoughts on kennys vargas? |
| 12:19 |
: Let’s see the major league strikeout rate.
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| 12:19 |
When E5 comes off the DL, I have to choose between Bogaerts and Alcantara for my UTIL spot in a H2H league. Who do you keep? |
| 12:20 |
: In a batting average league, Alcantara. In OBP, XB.
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| 12:20 |
Tanner Roark changed his grip on his slider to Jordan Zimmermann’s grip. Any info on that? |
| 12:20 |
: Aw damn just did Roark. Maybe I can try to do Zimmerman teaching Roark as a piece.
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| 12:20 |
Does Zach Lee for Uehara and Andrew Miller get it done? |
| 12:20 |
: I’d think so.
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| 12:21 |
Does Norris now move up in the batting order to replace Cespedes? |
| 12:21 |
: Maybe, with Gomes/Fuld slipping spot.
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| 12:21 |
So is hammel a reliever now with lester on the team? I was offered hammel for my kendrick in 4×4. |
| 12:21 |
: Don’t take that deal.
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| 12:22 |
For 2015, how does Matt Adams project? With that low BB% he can’t maintain the high BA, right? |
| 12:23 |
: It’s not the BB, it’s the Ks you gotta watch. I think he could .275+… he’s really hard to project because he went oppo for a month to beat the shift and then he decided to pull again for power.
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| 12:23 |
You’re Doug Melvin from now until deadline. What do you do besides admire and stroke that stache? |
| 12:23 |
: Get the cheapest starting pitcher on the market?
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| 12:25 |
Would you trade Dom Brown for a 4 pack of Founders Breakfast Stout? |
| 12:25 |
: Yes.
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| 12:25 |
: Although I haven’t touched beer in a week because of this sickness. I’m a broken man.
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| 12:26 |
Do the Red Sox try to extend Cespedes now? He isn’t that old,could be their corner outfielder for a few years, and you can’t offer him a QO due to his contract. |
| 12:26 |
: I bet they try.
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| 12:26 |
: Maybe they let him hit a couple wall rockers first.
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| 12:26 |
Will Lindor be promoted if Cabrera is traded? Thoughts on Lindor ROS if it happens? |
| 12:27 |
: Not sure how great a fantasy player he’ll be. Will there be a ton of power or speed? Will there be any?
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| 12:28 |
NEED MORE TUNES! |
| 12:28 |
:
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| 12:28 |
What are you expecting from Cliff Lee for the rest of this year? |
| 12:29 |
: No idea. Afraid he’ll be hurt. If not, velocity is not hugely important to what he does. Could do some Lilly esque work. High-ish ERA, great Whip, good Ks.
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| 12:29 |
Is this what can be expected from Andrus moving forward? Steals, Runs, and a low obp? Try to sell while I can still play the youth card? |
| 12:29 |
: I don’t see much more upside left, no.
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| 12:30 |
A’s/Red Sox trade hasn’t been announced yet. Is that because there’s money in the deal and they’re waiting for MLB to sign off, or do you think there’s a chance Boston flips Cespedes? |
| 12:30 |
: I just got the A’s announcement in my in box.
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| 12:30 |
Who is the first of the big Cubs prospects to get to the majors? |
| 12:30 |
: Watch position changes. If Bryant goes to OF, he’s up soon.
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| 12:30 |
Did the Harvey injury kill the potential Sox-O’s Lester deal yesterday? Related: what is a “strained flexor mass” and how bad is that? |
| 12:31 |
: It’s bad, it’s the strained forearm that’s often the precursor to TJ. But maybe they caught it in time. Apparently his velocity was way down.
|
| 12:31 |
Lester Shmester |
| 12:31 |
Why did the Dodgers pay $28M/4 years for Alex Guerrero & add Darwin Barney for “depth”? How many infielders do they need? Chance Guerrero gets traded today? |
| 12:31 |
: The Guerrero signing was just not a great signing. He’s now the future 3B after Uribe maybe, or OF depth if they trade an OF.
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| 12:32 |
: Also, the answer to the other question is obvious: Colletti needs ALL OF THE MEDIOCRE INFIELDERS. Kennedy, Hairston, Ellis, Uribe, Guerrero, Barney…
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| 12:32 |
Eno, Is an Alcantara for Odorizzi a fair trade? I need starting pitching and have Utley or Prado manning second base in a H2H 20 team dynasty league and am currently in 2nd place. Thanks. |
| 12:33 |
: I think it’s a good idea but I’d want something I believe in a little more than Odorizzi.
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| 12:33 |
Why didn’t the A’s trade Milone to bring Suzuki back and run 4 Catchers? Vogt/Suzuki/Norris/Jaso |
| 12:33 |
If I started a kickstarter right now to pay Byrd’s option year, you think it’ll be fully funded by the deadline? |
| 12:33 |
: Got to give the people the moobs they want.
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| 12:33 |
Was it a big mistake for the rays to turn down Anderson Russell for price |
| 12:34 |
: I’m not sure how much better they can do.
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| 12:34 |
Injured Tulo for Stasburg a good idea. Or am I freaking out? HELP! |
| 12:35 |
: Can you make it 15 days without Tulo? Then don’t do this.
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| 12:35 |
Is it mathematically legitimate to multiply the playoff odds for one AL team by the odds of one NL team to get a satisfactory approximation of the odds they both make the playoffs? (On the assumption that they’re *mostly* independent.) |
| 12:35 |
: Yes
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| 12:35 |
: But I’m know mugician
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| 12:35 |
: *no
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| 12:35 |
So how about that Pedro Alvarez? |
| 12:35 |
: Jeebus that didn’t work out, did it.
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| 12:36 |
If Shark returns Russell, what could Lackey return? He is older you get a month less, but he has been worth a bit more than Shark for past two seasons and is cheaper for next season. He also has playoff experience, which teams seem to value. |
| 12:36 |
: It won’t work, imo. It’s just too weird a pitcher to trade for.
|
| 12:36 |
With Milone’s pitching style and stuff, he was really a Twin before he was officially a Twin. |
| 12:36 |
If you were the Phillies wouldn’t you be in Sell-Off-Everything Mode? |
| 12:36 |
: I guess they in no hurry and want to get the best pieces they can get for their broken toys.
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| 12:36 |
Pirates – Did you expect them to actually make a move for a Lester caliber type of player? |
| 12:37 |
: Guess not. They work around the edges. Gotta keep the machine going.
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| 12:37 |
I don’t know why that boy’s always up in these here fantastical chatters…but he’s not available and wanted me to ask one of them there questions. Who wins in a trade like this right here…Adam Jones/Cliff Lee/Prado for Kipnis/Sale/Revere? |
| 12:37 |
: Best hitter in Jones side, but Kipnis is close enough and I love Sale, so I’ll take the second side.
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| 12:37 |
Does the Lester trade calculus change if Hammel is broken and the A’s just realized it? |
| 12:38 |
: He’s just a two-pitch pitcher, I don’t know that he’s broken. But he’s been oft injured too.
|
| 12:38 |
One question because these chats make iPhones spas |
| 12:38 |
Ian Kennedy and the rights to uproot Green Flash, Ballast Point and Lost Abbey to Baltimore for Gausman. WHO SAYS NO? |
| 12:39 |
: Not San Diego, they got four more breweries opening tomorrow with great frigging beers.
|
| 12:39 |
What do you think about Gardner for Bruce? Bruce seems like he can’t put it together this year. |
| 12:40 |
: Bruce had some things go weird with his knee hurting, but most of those rates returned to normal recently. I think he can hit .250 with customary 30 homer power soon.
|
| 12:40 |
Time to cut Lincecum loose (again)? |
| 12:41 |
: Got no command. If he throws 40% fastballs or fewer, maybe it could work. Dunno how long his arm will last doing that though.
|
| 12:41 |
The trade deadline makes me go weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee |
| 12:41 |
i would trade dom brown for bud light bc flip cup. |
| 12:41 |
mmmm breakfast stout. |
| 12:41 |
: an interlude!
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| 12:42 |
What do you think James Paxton has in store the ROS? |
| 12:42 |
: Inconsistent velocity, mechanics and results.
|
| 12:42 |
Enon is down with the sickness |
| 12:42 |
: Moving with bronchitis is hell.
|
| 12:43 |
: HAH. Shows what I know. Lackey a Cardinal. Weird. I don’t love him or Masterson.
|
| 12:43 |
AWAHAHAHAHA |
| 12:43 |
I loved your piece on Lester gain more horizontal movement on the his cutter. But something has gone un-noticed in your piece and Blengino’s piece today, is that Jon Lester finally fixed his curveball release point after losing it in the collapse of 2011. He was tipping it before. |
| 12:44 |
: Interesting. Curve releases are always high though, you can’t just point to the Pfx dots. (I know this because Mike Fast once wrote that the internet cried the day I wrote that upon it.)
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| 12:44 |
Starting pitcher? Huh. That’s the last thing I think they need. Interested why you’d do that. |
| 12:44 |
: Don’t believe in Jimmy Nelson, think their offense is decent.
|
| 12:45 |
How much would you pay to get a hold of a recording of Jack Z and Ruben Amaro, Jr. trying to work out a trade? I’m not sure you could slap a price tag on that. |
| 12:45 |
: This is the only reason I have any inclination to work in baseball. Fascinating conversations I’m sure. But baseball asks you to sacrifice so much at the altar of BASEBALL AS GOD if you want to work for them: workload, travel time, pay scale.
|
| 12:46 |
I’m sorry for your illness but for heaven’s sake man have a beer your wasting away |
| 12:46 |
: Not appealing yet but I am dying.
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| 12:46 |
Soooo, who are the big winners so far Eno? The Cubs look great. The A’s only if they win it all? The Phillies big losers unless they do ANYTHING? |
| 12:47 |
: Yes but where do the Cards fit in with Lackey and Masterson and now a kicking pen? Guess like the A’s, we’ll call it a big win if they win.
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| 12:47 |
Cistull: I demand to be traded! |
| 12:48 |
: Instantly lowers trade value into a beer stein and beer stein sized coozy.
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| 12:48 |
Hi Eno – If the Pads move Benoit do you like Thayer, Quackenbush or holding both for now? |
| 12:48 |
: Quack!
|
| 12:49 |
whoa, Craig part of the Lackey trade |
| 12:49 |
: And Joe Kelly… I hope they convince Kelly to go for a few more Ks. He has great raw stuff. I think this could be the rare trade to the AL for a pitcher that could help. And Craig… his value goes up. They’ll give him a shot to show he can be helpful going forward.
|
| 12:50 |
Boston plugs both of their holes with the Kelly/Craig package |
| 12:50 |
: This is dirty.
|
| 12:50 |
Guess this means more PT for Taveras |
| 12:50 |
: Oh yeah.
|
| 12:50 |
#freeoscar |
| 12:50 |
: Well he’s not free, he’d be super expensive to get actually.
|
| 12:50 |
Why Quack? |
| 12:50 |
: Last I checked, he was pitching the eighth. Help me out here — isn’t he?
|
| 12:51 |
Time to pick up Allen Craig? |
| 12:51 |
: He’s still got .280/18 ability, I can’t believe that disappeared immediately.
|
| 12:51 |
Is there a buyer out there who we can trade NotGraphs to that will keep it alive? |
| 12:51 |
: There might be something in the works. Bug David Temple.
|
| 12:51 |
I like the new Red Sox a little better than the old Red Sox. |
| 12:51 |
: The new new red Sox might even sign Jon Lester.
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| 12:51 |
IT’S ALL HAPPENING |
| 12:52 |
: The over under on trades yesterday by Bovada was 10.5. I was on the under.
|
| 12:52 |
You really dislike Nelson that much huh? I could probably sell him at a premium right now. Go for it? |
| 12:52 |
: I really distrust fastball slider guys, and his command isn’t great. If he was Tyson Ross in SD, that might be one thing.
|
| 12:52 |
I’ll trade you a trade full of trades. |
| 12:52 |
: It’d be like Christmas.
|
| 12:53 |
Allen Craig or Kendrys Morales ROS?? |
| 12:54 |
: Guessing you’ll have to make the decision now. I’d rather wait to see how much PT Craig will get. But I do think he’s closer to productivity.
|
| 12:54 |
Seriously though, where is Craig going to play? |
| 12:54 |
: I don’t think Nava NEEDS PT in a lost season.
|
| 12:54 |
I actually like Milone to the Twins, it’s just a quiet, but solid move for a decent 4/5 guy. |
| 12:54 |
: I don’t think it’s horrible, I just think it’s funny.
|
| 12:55 |
Maybe the Sox should trade Papi to the Mariners so Cano and Ortiz sneak into the playoffs with their polite little chinstrap beards. |
| 12:55 |
:
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| 12:55 |
He’s a #3 on the Twins |
| 12:55 |
Use my #1 waiver priority on Lackey now that he’s to Cards? |
| 12:56 |
: Yeah, he’s going to enjoy the NL.
|
| 12:56 |
Thoughts on Hell or High Watermelon and 21st amendment brewery as a whole? I’m staying in Sf at the moment and thoroughly enjoyed that refreshing beer. Also any recommendations? |
| 12:56 |
: 21A is solid, not super star IMO. The watermelon is fun. Cellarmaker is the best in-city brewer. City Beer Store is great. Both over there in downtown.
|
| 12:56 |
this years trade deadline has been much more exciting than in the past |
| 12:56 |
: And sucked yesterday.
|
| 12:56 |
Where does Craig play _next_ year? Napoli at 1B, Papi at DH, Cespedes in one corner … does this mean Betts is blocked AGAIN ? |
| 12:57 |
: Betts could take CF from Bradley IMO. Bradley plays D well, but if Betts can play it well too, Bradley can be the 4th OF. Or Victo.
|
| 12:57 |
Like that we got Lackey, don’t like that it cost Joe Kelly. Always thought he was incredibly underrated |
| 12:57 |
anything beyond Surly in the Minnesota area? Or just focus on the Michigan and Chicago stuff? |
| 12:57 |
: Indeed Brewing is great. I forgot the other one.
|
| 12:57 |
NORDEAST |
| 12:58 |
Do you like Lackey or Masterson more in the NL? |
| 12:58 |
: Lackey.
|
| 12:58 |
Beer store Mid-Peninsula? |
| 12:58 |
: Mine is Willow Market in Menlo Park. But I’ve moved to Palo Alto now, and have been thinking about opening my own.
|
| 12:59 |
ENO BEER STORE? *moves to san diego* |
| 12:59 |
: I’m in Palo Alto though so that’s weird.
|
| 12:59 |
I would be there on opening day. |
| 12:59 |
: Nice. Got one customer!
|
| 12:59 |
Is Drew Pomeranz worht holding on to in a 20 team dynasty? Looks like he will be blocked for a while. |
| 1:00 |
: You never know what a post-championship A’s fire sale would look like.
|
| 1:00 |
With Boston going ape-nuts, what do you think of stashing Tazawa? |
| 1:00 |
: Not a bad idea in deeper leagues. I’d still caution against dropping a real asset ahead of a non-existent trade.
|
| 1:00 |
Doubront hold any value in an NL-only league? |
| 1:00 |
: yeesh. His velocity is so down and his change has gotten so much worse… But in NL-only, worth a (small FAAB) shot.
|
| 1:01 |
: Yeah Quackenbush has more holds and has been used in later innings than Thayer despite Thayer’s slight velocity lead. He’s my pick if Benoit goes. But Benoit is under contract next year, so they don’t need to trade him.
|
| 1:02 |
Apparently the Cards are also getting appx. $1.75m |
| 1:02 |
: Could get a pretty hot car for that.
|
| 1:02 |
Does Leonys Martin pick up his production, or does he keep sputtering along like this ROS? |
| 1:03 |
: He’s a good but not great fantasy guy. I think he’ll pick up the power pace with a few outbursts and end up near .270/10/30. That’s worth rostering.
|
| 1:03 |
Seriously though, which new breweries are opening in SD that are worth a look? |
| 1:03 |
: I had a boysenberry gose from the former Karl Strauss brewer opening up 32 North in Miramar and it was Boss.
|
| 1:04 |
you mean like Omar Vizquel's? |
| 1:04 |
: that shirt.
|
| 1:04 |
Seinfeld’s line about rooting for laundry seems apt today |
| 1:04 |
Allen Craig was just dropped in my points league – worth using a waiver claim now? |
| 1:05 |
Thinking of stashing Joc Pederson as J.D. Martinez insurance…dude is a beast, allegedly… |
| 1:05 |
: who you dropping is really the answer to both. And also, don’t use a number one waiver claim on Craig.
|
| 1:05 |
My point on Lester’s release point was that 2014 is more like 2009-2010. Late 2011-2013 was quite different and his curve generated 29% Whiff/Swing. His 2014 generates 40% Whiffs/Swing, along the lines of the 37% of 2009-2010. It is just interesting. Pitching is one of those things where correlation is very difficult to prove causation. |
| 1:05 |
: Yes, it’s nice to see him go back to a place that worked for him. Good eye!
|
| 1:06 |
Sox sending minor leaguer to Cards too, if Betts I will have to leave this chat as my computer will be smashed against the wall. |
| 1:06 |
: No. cannot be.
|
| 1:06 |
Should Reds take a run @ Daniel Nava? |
| 1:06 |
: yes, Nava should be available.
|
| 1:06 |
Will the Astros move Keuchel or McHugh? |
| 1:06 |
: No, I don’t think they should or will.
|
| 1:06 |
I dropped Giles for Quackenbush, assuming Papelbon stays put. Harder to drop Soria for Tazawa since Joakim’s prospect of closing seems more tangible to me… |
| 1:06 |
: Sounds good to me.
|
| 1:06 |
As an A, Cespedes would have 11 games in hitters parks over the next 2 months. As a Red Sox, that number goes to 40!!! How many extra Total Bases would you say that creates? |
| 1:08 |
: he’s averaged about one XBH every two games, I think he could maybe get an extra one every eight games?
|
| 1:08 |
: Park factors are the bane of analysis. Sometimes, they change Adrian Beltre into ADRIAN BELTRE. Sometimes they don’t matter as much.
|
| 1:09 |
Yankees must have one trade in them today, right? |
| 1:09 |
: Dunno, they seem like more than one trade away from anything to me.
|
| 1:09 |
The Baseball Project is playing at the Ommegang Brewery in Cooperstown, NY, tomorrow, if anyone is interested (Conor Oberst and Dawes also on the bill). |
| 1:09 |
After the deadline closes, is it safe to Joc if I was holding him out of hope? |
| 1:10 |
: IS IT SAFE TO JOC I love it. You can drop him after the deadline, he’ll be up for very limited play in September at best if they don’t make a trade.
|
| 1:10 |
Your top 5 beers/breweries in SoCal area. Go. |
| 1:11 |
: Something like, unranked, Societe (Pupil), Modern Times (Blazing World), Stone (Enjoy By), El Segundo (Hop Tanker), Alpine (Nelson)
|
| 1:11 |
If you were the Indians would have been more aggressive with trading Cabrera? Or do you think they are happy to use him for the rest of the year, offer QO and if he accepts, great, if he signs with someone else you get a pick. |
| 1:11 |
: They need an asset they value higher than the pick, I suppose. But the pick has an 80% bust rate I think, so it can’t be too hard to beat.
|
| 1:12 |
: Chris Russo is pissing off the rest of the MLBN guys by yelling at them that the A’s have never done anything in the postseason.
|
| 1:12 |
Grilli’s been doing some nice work out in LA. Drop him for Quack though? |
| 1:12 |
: Street’s the guy.
|
| 1:13 |
Think the Sox throw $20mil/year at Shields, Scherzer and Lester in the offseason? |
| 1:13 |
: And? I think they work Scherzer first and then move down the line.
|
| 1:13 |
Right Brain brews a beer described as “Porter brewed with smoked pig parts.” That seems like a marketing fail, but it sells so it doesn’t matter I guess. |
| 1:13 |
: Um
|
| 1:14 |
Minor Leaguer to Cards is Corey Littrell, LHP 5th rounder in 2013 |
| 1:14 |
Thunder has been stolen |
| 1:14 |
HEY HEY HEY HEY HEY HEY HEY HEY HEY HEY HEY HEY, CHRIS RUSSO…. |
| 1:14 |
Joe Kelly kinda sucks and Allen Craig has sucked for a decent amount of time now. Why is this a good return for 1.5 years of an above average big leaguer starter? |
| 1:15 |
: kelly has 95 mph gas and two offspeed pitches that have above-average peripherals and Craig’s a line-drive hitter that seemed like a perennial .280/18 guy just last year. Plus, it’s two hitters for a pitcher.
|
| 1:15 |
Did you have any shares of Mr. Choo this year? Boy did he (and CarGo, Trumbo, Stras, Marte, Lowrie, etc.). |
| 1:15 |
: I did and it sucks. I figured Texas would be awesome for him.
|
| 1:15 |
My TV never leaves MLBN. Except when Chris Russo is on. |
| 1:16 |
Do the Nats need to make a move at 2nd to have a realistic shot of making the WS? |
| 1:16 |
: The postseason is a crapshoot. They look like they can make it, so I don’t think you can say they NEED to make a move.
|
| 1:17 |
“Smoked pig part” does not inspire thirst. I may try it out of curiosity though. |
| 1:17 |
: Which is why it sells, I guess.
|
| 1:18 |
Why am I not great this year? |
| 1:18 |
: False. You are great. You are healthy and K’ing 10 and BBing 2 per nine, which is awesome sauce. No reason 35% of his balls in play should be hits.
|
| 1:18 |
Other solid minnesota breweries: lucid (solid DIPA); Fulton (esp their bombers / seasonals); Dangerous Man (growler/ taproom only); Bent Paddle (that’s what she said) |
| 1:18 |
Rauchbiers, the grossest beer for vegetarians. |
| 1:18 |
: Oh yuck.
|
| 1:19 |
Also, on a completely unrelated note, if you like Japanese BBQ make sure you go to Takashi in NYC next time here. Fantastic. |
| 1:19 |
: It’ll have to be better than the places I used to go to! Izikaya 13 I think?
|
| 1:19 |
Sweet Baby Jesus (chocolate peanutbutter beer) was a curiosity… Not for everyone, but I LOVE it |
| 1:19 |
: I liked it too, but I like sweet beers.
|
| 1:19 |
Where do the Cardinal’s moves leave the Brewers? |
| 1:20 |
: Looklng like Poopyface Tomato Nose? The Brewers are in a weird position. Was this supposed to happen? Does their farm system have the parts to trade for something?
|
| 1:20 |
Andrew Miller to Detroit about to drop… |
| 1:21 |
: that would make some sense.
|
| 1:21 |
Is it too much to give up a $1 gausman, $5 sonny Gray and Meyer (minor league keeper) for $36 Chris Davis (won’t be keeping) and $17 Jordan Zimmerman? 10 team h2h and I’m in second. |
| 1:22 |
: No, hitting costs a lot to acquire. I think Chris Davis can at least manage .230 with 35HR type power.
|
| 1:22 |
Who will be the first big prospect moved today? |
| 1:22 |
: None of them? Love that the A’s were the only ones so far to sack up with prospects. Maybe if you count Paxton or BMiller or Franklin as prospects…
|
| 1:23 |
sorry if this has already been asked, but in a mixed league format, does JBJ have much value anymore after today’s deals? possible keeper, but only have 2 everyday OFs currently |
| 1:23 |
: That strikeout rate is undoing his good work on D. I think he could use more time in the minors more than Betts…
|
| 1:23 |
Eno – Favorite current female indie singer/songwriter: Sharon Van Etten, Angel Olsen, Lykke Li? |
| 1:23 |
:
|
| 1:24 |
Since I am great, should an owner trade Ellsbury and Garret Richards for me (and an early round draft pick) in a 12 team head-to-head keeper league? |
| 1:24 |
: No, Richards is pretty great too
|
| 1:24 |
Rumor that Robbie Ray would be included in Miller deal. Now that would be funny, if true. |
| 1:24 |
: Wut.
|
| 1:25 |
i’m kind of surprised the sox haven’t tried to deal brock holt – I know he’s really just a utility IF but given the amount of contenders that need a 2B, you’d think they could get something, no? |
| 1:25 |
: Giants
|
| 1:25 |
Did you get a chance to watch Richards vs Gausman last night? All things considered, it was a great July game. |
| 1:25 |
: I did enjoy it. Gausman is a ton of fun to watch. Richards is throwing a ton of breaking balls.
|
| 1:25 |
What about Garrett Richards for Carlos Correa in a keep-forever format? |
| 1:26 |
: I’ll trade pitching for major league hitting all day. But major league pitching for a prospect that’s two years away and has a bust rate still?
|
| 1:26 |
Overselling Garrett Richards. Correa looks to be real. |
| 1:26 |
: “looks to be.”
|
| 1:27 |
: Richards has plus velocity and two breaking pitches that are nice, and one has a reverse platoon split.
|
| 1:27 |
Kluber is awesome. His slider is awesomer. Tell me this won’t end in disaster. |
| 1:27 |
: The velocity will dip at some point and make the fastball no good. But until then, enjoy!
|
| 1:28 |
hould I trade cespedes for verlander? |
| 1:28 |
: Hey that’s not nice. I would not do that trade, not ever.
|
| 1:28 |
As a Yankee fan, something tells me Allen Craig is gonna kill it in Boston. |
| 1:28 |
: Park could help.
|
| 1:28 |
All “big name” trades are done right? |
| 1:28 |
: Price is the last shoe to drop, if it does.
|
| 1:29 |
“Bonafacio” is a pretty big name. Especially in large font. |
| 1:29 |
: Yeah what if the Marlins trade Saltalamacchia.
|
| 1:29 |
Odds someone cracks, offers Rockies top 3-4 prospects for Tulo in next 12 hours: |
| 1:30 |
: 1-3000, or 1-100 for each team.
|
| 1:30 |
Whoooaaaaaa. You guys think the big deals are over? Y’all do know the Braves and Royals are interested in Chris Denorfia, rite?1 |
| 1:30 |
Is the STUPID Ruben Amaro gonna do ANYTHING? |
| 1:30 |
: You’d think Papelbon would be easy.
|
| 1:30 |
Better make that offer in the next two hours. They can offer anything they want in 12… |
| 1:30 |
: The Phils could make some waiver deals.
|
| 1:30 |
Am I not a big name? |
| 1:31 |
: Just a little name. Eight letters!
|
| 1:31 |
Cliff Lee has waiver written all over him |
| 1:31 |
How do you get to that position being so bad at it? Good at his previous position? |
| 1:31 |
: Good at putting together final pieces for a competitive team, maybe.
|
| 1:31 |
Done Deal |
| 1:32 |
: That would be one of the best names to ever get traded for Cliff Lee.
|
| 1:32 |
Amaro: Jack, you can pick two of DJ Peterson, Tai Walker, or Alex Jackson to give me for this old washed up outfielder. I’ll just close my eyes and you write the names on this piece of paper…tell me when I can open my eyes. Jack. Jack, I’m waiting.. |
| 1:32 |
Justin Smoak would take offense to that statement |
| 1:32 |
We could trade Smoak for Lee again. |
| 1:32 |
I guess so. Good at making a good team better. But terrible at making a bad team good. |
| 1:33 |
Brewers trade for Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard, Phil’s eat more money than most people see in a lifetime. |
| 1:33 |
: Nom Nom Nom
|
| 1:34 |
Can we go back to Stras/Richards? How much of a difference in ranking is there between the two in a keeper league? |
| 1:34 |
: Stras has shown more injury risk, but otherwise I’d project them for about a half run of ERA difference, about one K/9 difference going forward. Difference between top 15 and top 30?
|
| 1:34 |
Ryan Howard eats more subway than most New Yorkers see in a lifetime |
| 1:35 |
After burning out as a GM, Billy Beane became one of the greatest GMs ever. Who’s better, Ruben Amaro or Barry Bonds? |
| 1:35 |
Rangers Giants closing in on Rios. |
| 1:35 |
: I guess he could help in the OF, not a 2b though, which is a bigger hole for me.
|
| 1:35 |
Braves prospect Wigberto Nevarez. Feel comfortable tagging that an 80-grade name? |
| 1:35 |
: don’t wig out wigberto.
|
| 1:36 |
Retug |
| 1:37 |
Do you think the Dodger’s could get Tulo if they empty the stables? |
| 1:37 |
: They have the pieces but I don’t think it makes sense for them.
|
| 1:38 |
Gyorko seems healthy. Rehab #s look good, as well. |
| 1:39 |
: I think he could .240 with 20HR power rest of season, sure.
|
| 1:39 |
Bonifacio enough to get Price to CHC? |
| 1:39 |
: That’s good.
|
| 1:39 |
what’s the meanest nickname you’ve been called? |
| 1:40 |
: In middle school it was Enis the Penis, in high shool it was Dink, but as much as Kenny G was upsetting the first time, I loved it.
|
| 1:41 |
Where the hell did Dink come from? |
| 1:41 |
: I was small in high school Arrive 5’2, 105, left 6’2, 150.
|
| 1:41 |
what do you like best: pretentious beer, pretentious music or pretentious stats? |
| 1:41 |
: Hmmm. All of them! Thing is, I don’t care what you like, so how can what I like be pretentious. It’s just what I like!
|
| 1:42 |
Where’d you go to high school? |
| 1:42 |
: Milton Academy with Carson Cistulli.
|
| 1:42 |
Last week during the Big Brother nomination ceremony, Zach called Nicole a Fruit Loop Dingus. Pretty harsh if you ask me |
| 1:42 |
I never had a mocking nickname, I did have a fat friend that affectionately called me “lanky bastard” though. |
| 1:42 |
Do you think former 5th overall pick in the football draft Curtis Enis was ever called “the penis”? |
| 1:43 |
: Yes. I’m sure of it. He might have made them pay if he cared.
|
| 1:43 |
Oh man, I didn’t know you were a Milton man…and I thought I liked you. |
| 1:43 |
: Nobles?
|
| 1:43 |
Let’s just throw out some names and have you sort ’em for dynasty leagues. Keuchel, Eovaldi, Hughes, deGrom, Odorizzi, Salazar, Shoemaker, Hutchison |
| 1:44 |
: Loving deGrom. Lemme see. deGrom, Salazar, Eovaldi, Keuchel, Hughes, Hutchison, Shoemaker, Odorrizi.
|
| 1:44 |
Nah even worse…one of those big, non-ISL boarding schools. |
| 1:44 |
: I was almost a Groton Guy.
|
| 1:44 |
Ever give someone false fantasy opinions for laughs? |
| 1:45 |
: I had one guy that sent me about ten emails a day so at one point I just said yes to his insane ideas.
|
| 1:45 |
Did you suggest AJ Cole and Steven Souza for Daniel Murphy? C’mon. |
| 1:45 |
: AJ Cole has been handed about like nobody’s business and Souza isn’t a top 100 guy. Also, have you seen the leaked Houston docs.
|
| 1:46 |
If it makes you feel any better ive got strep throat |
| 1:46 |
: With your handle… never mind.
|
| 1:46 |
A Milton man is neither seen nor heard. |
| 1:46 |
: Well I’m a terrible Milton man then.
|
| 1:46 |
Will Dodgers land Benoit? |
| 1:46 |
: I bet not. Maybe Papelbon?
|
| 1:46 |
goddammitrubenwhyyouaintdonenothingyet |
| 1:46 |
were you & Carson really HS classmates? |
| 1:47 |
: Different years.
|
| 1:47 |
Saw a tweet from Joel Sherman that says Rays are definitely moving Price. Not sure how much I believe the Rays would EVER define their status as such, right? |
| 1:47 |
: No but also if so… Dodgers or Seattle for sure. Going to guess… Walker Miller Franklin for Price??
|
| 1:47 |
: Probably need to add a pitcher.
|
| 1:48 |
eno, i got my tickets to see Lykke Li in a couple months. what about you?? |
| 1:48 |
: I got a two-year old.
|
| 1:48 |
A woman was excluded from the Commonwealth Games for too much testosterone. When will we start excluding men for too much estrogen? |
| 1:49 |
: I think we do, to some extent, because the steroid tests test hormone levels.
|
| 1:49 |
any chance the Giants give Crick a chance this year? |
| 1:49 |
: I was saying put him in the pen now!
|
| 1:49 |
i played milton in high school hockey. we smashed them. guess where i went 🙂 |
| 1:49 |
: Anywhere else in the ISL? Can’t remember who crushed us specifically. I used to go to those games though. three-walled hockey rink with metal walls, that place was LOUD.
|
| 1:50 |
they were’t insane ideas |
| 1:50 |
: The Houston docs weren’t insane ideas?? Really?
|
| 1:50 |
If Clayton Kershaw were a TV show would he be Breaking Bad or the Wire? |
| 1:50 |
: Too easy with the breaking pitches.
|
| 1:50 |
Mitch Haniger to Arizona. Big Names. Done Deals. |
| 1:51 |
private school people, christ |
| 1:51 |
: Didn’t pay a dime. I was the poor kid that felt like an impostor.
|
| 1:51 |
Clayton Kershaw in…Breaking Bats |
| 1:52 |
Cole and Souza are two major league ready projects in AAA right now with 6 years of control for a guy who is a below average defender in the middle of the diamond and an above average hitter with one year and 2 months of control. |
| 1:53 |
: Okay walk it back. Souza seems decent. Major league ready doesn’t mean they’ll succeed. He’s not top 100, so he has a bust rate over 70%. Add an arm.. Murphy’s not great, but it’s a year-plus at a position of need. And he can play third.
|
| 1:53 |
In the weekly Fangraphs staff re-enactments of The Wire, what character does everyone play, and why are you Bubbles? |
| 1:53 |
: Because I have the cough of a long-term user right now. #dead
|
| 1:54 |
Byrd to Yankees for Carlos Guzman + PTBNL |
| 1:55 |
: Okay. That helps. Except I cycled through all the Carlos Guzmans and none was playing for the Yankees, strangely.
|
| 1:55 |
You and me both my friend…financial aid ftw! |
| 1:56 |
: It’s something people don’t understand about prep schools, I think. Although of course some of the stereotyping was true. I did go to school with one of the Bains from Bain and Bain.
|
| 1:56 |
How bad do I suck? Time to drop me for a Gose or other steals hot hand? |
| 1:57 |
: The walk rate should get better, the strikeout rate suggests that the batting average shouldn’t fall too much further, but even Juan Pierre seems like a ceiling now. Gose and others strike out a lot. Maybe watch some Kennys Vargas.
|
| 1:57 |
That’s what I felt like in college, the poor kid imposter. I went to a small Baptist private school in the south on a full scholarship. I was driving a beat up decade old Honda while my classmates all had SUV’s and convertibles. |
| 1:57 |
: Eh, work hard, have fun, and ignore the people that say “Eno, with that car you’re either not getting any or not taking yourself seriously.” Duh, dude, it’s both.
|
| 1:58 |
actually maybe Bowden got duped on that Byrd thing |
| 1:58 |
: LOL that would be funny, especially if the Yankees don’t own a Carlos Guzman. (one was playing in the Mexican Leagues, it could have been him)
|
| 1:58 |
Bowden cited a fake account as source |
| 1:58 |
: god I hate those things.
|
| 1:59 |
All we need is a World Series for the story to be worthwhile! |
| 1:59 |
Cole or Souza for Murphy, I can see. Both? Nah. Cole is top 100 prospect on every list. |
| 2:00 |
: Sure, it’s cool, I’ll walk it back. I just figured people have really diverse opinions on Cole, maybe you could sneak him in. Souza led the AFL in velocity off bat by Trackman, and the Mets need an outfielder. Spice it up a bit.
|
| 2:00 |
Citing bust rate as the reason to not gamble on prospects (in fantasy) is too easy. I would say lazy but I like your chats. |
| 2:01 |
: No, but it’s a huge reason not to trade established veterans for prospects unless you think about bust rate. Take it a step forward. If you want to trade Richards for Correa, get a frigging second piece. now the math works.
|
| 2:01 |
If the As win the WS, is the off-season fire sale going to make Jeffrey Loria stand up and applaud? |
| 2:01 |
: See that’s what I’m thinking about. I think even Gray could go.
|
| 2:02 |
Eno please tell me something positive about me. Has my flash in the pan greatness faded completely or do I have gas left in the tank ROS? |
| 2:03 |
: One thing I noticed, and I’m not sure how different it is than before, is that he’s gearing up for the fastball. Like pretty obviously. And he had no problems with Richard’s 97, so he likes fastballs. But that means more Ks, even if it means more power. As a righty that’s played against LHP in past, though, his floor is very low.
|
| 2:04 |
I became a hipster while at private college solely because my blue collar self couldn’t roll with the yuppies. Dark times, dark times indeed. |
| 2:04 |
: HERE COMES THE BEARD YOU COLLAR POPPERS
|
| 2:04 |
: (I just couldn’t grow the beard so I went hippie)
|
| 2:04 |
i don’t know what’s real anymore |
| 2:04 |
: ARE YOU REAL
|
| 2:04 |
Wouldn’t be the first time Bowden got duped |
| 2:04 |
: Gonna leave that there
|
| 2:04 |
It was crazy lonely for me, but I got a lot of free crap helping people study. |
| 2:05 |
: We all find our way to happy places eventually, or at least I hope that happened for you.
|
| 2:05 |
Rosenthal: “Dodgers have been in talks with Rays on Price, with Pederson in play.” This is not from an RT and I follow the real guy, so |
| 2:05 |
: Said it on TV just now. That could beat Russell, if something else is in there.
|
| 2:06 |
Brewers got Parra for Haniger |
| 2:07 |
: I thought Manny for a second and was going to laugh. Behind him I guess Peralta’s job is safe… maybe Inciarte until Pollock returns?
|
| 2:07 |
I have a 2 year old and I got tickets for black keys in September and Tim & Eric with Steve Bruhl in October. First shows I’ll see in 2 years…. |
| 2:07 |
: Nice. I have manged to see Amon Tobin, and did go to Pitchfork fest just recently, but I don’t get out much.
|
| 2:07 |
Hey Eno any word on closer trades? Pretty quiet on the Papelbon front. Besides Giles who else is a good stash for sneaky saves this year? |
| 2:08 |
: If you can’t get two birds in the hand, might as well get a Quackenbush.
|
| 2:08 |
So is Cameron going to tag in on this chat or are you all going to cruelly leave us without a place to B about Ruben? |
| 2:08 |
: There’s more coming.
|
| 2:10 |
Is Julio Teheran an ace or is a big correction in store? |
| 2:10 |
: I’d say both. He’s a top 20 guy pitching like a top five guy maybe.
|
| 2:10 |
unless your league is stupid-deep, there’s no reason to gamble on prospects |
| 2:10 |
bowden appears to have deleted his twitter now |
| 2:11 |
Do you have faith in me this year or drop for a streamer? 12 team H2H pretty deep setup… |
| 2:11 |
: I like his changeup a ton, he has some velocity, and his slider is okay. Might not get a ton of wins, but I own him in some deeper roster 12-teamers… so yeah.
|
| 2:12 |
little blue checkmarks. that’s what’s real |
| 2:12 |
: OH NO I”M NOT REAL
|
| 2:12 |
Just dropped Jay Bruce for #freeoscar in a H2H league. |
| 2:12 |
: I wouldn’ta done tha.
|
| 2:13 |
I learned to appreciate beer and did most of my homework at a local bar called the Shamrock. I also read ludicrous amounts of 19th century literature and played video games with a few close friends. It was lonely, but it was still fun. |
| 2:13 |
: That sounds like a good portion of my college life as well.
|
| 2:14 |
if rays get pederson, does he start in their OF? |
| 2:16 |
: Let’s see. Myers was in Double-A but didn’t start in majors with the team after the trade, right? Pederson is in Triple-A… you could say he could work on his strikeout rate… It’s not for sure that he’ll start, I’d say. And I’ll take Oscar, but Oscar’s K% suggest a better batting average is coming than Joc will put up, and you can’t bank on Joc hitting a ton of homers and stealing bases right off the bat.
|
| 2:16 |
Sure hope Masterson and Lackey can hit |
| 2:16 |
They test for Testosterone/Estrogen ratio. |
| 2:16 |
: Right? so if they were super high on Estrogen, they’d think they were masking something. Sorta what Manny got busted for.
|
| 2:17 |
I hate when people say “I’m dying” We’re all dying bitch, one day at a time. |
| 2:17 |
: Yeesh, no sympathy for the sick. You sound like my wife.
|
| 2:17 |
my boss learned that you can “zip” files to make them smaller and now every time a computer starts getting slow he asks if we can just zip all the files to speed it up |
| 2:17 |
Yankees claim Esmil Rogers. Division favorites now? |
| 2:18 |
: Really going to tie the room together.
|
| 2:18 |
is there gonna be a trade deadline chat today after you? or you staying with us all day |
| 2:18 |
: They’ll start soon. I don’t know if I’ll make it to three when they start.
|
| 2:18 |
Moneyball 2: The Moneball-ening |
| 2:18 |
denorfia to mariners… wanted him on the braves! |
| 2:19 |
When you’re drinking a beer, do you ever think “this is just some tea made of a not-particularly tasty plant that was injected with fungus and left to sit for a while” |
| 2:19 |
: Sometimes I think that when they’ve added some adjunct like blueberries and then I’m like wut and all the stuff you said.
|
| 2:21 |
: Okay I should do one more run to the old house before podcasting. Thanks for hanging out guys. This was a testy one, you got me back on my feet!
|
| 2:21 |
: Chatting starts again in a half hour
|
| 2:21 |
Later, creator. |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
It seems that this class of rookie pitchers doesn’t have of the ones we saw dominate last year (e.g. Wacha, Gray, Jose Fernandez, Salazar). Where do you think Stroman ranks relative to those above pitchers?