Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 8/6/15
10:46 |
: Two things. 1) Don’t make fun of these guys, they were legit. 2) Leave your questions, but in the interest of fun, I’m going to try and scroll up to the now and reach into the vault for questions when I need.
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10:47 |
:
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12:00 |
Coolest pitch grip you’ve ever seen? Got any grips yesterday at the A’s game? |
12:01 |
: Oh man it was grip fest. Got Britton’s sinker (cutter grip!) and Darren O’Day’s grips and we were having a love fest. Coolest might be the Critter from Latos or Despaigne’s weird thing.
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12:01 |
As a FG+ member, I would like to read your closer article from yesterday but everytime I click on it, it logs me out… |
12:01 |
: hit me up on twitter and I’ll get you help
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12:01 |
have anything planned for IPA day today? |
12:01 |
: Every day is IPA day. Might have my last Pipeworks Ninja vs Unicorn that I have left…
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12:02 |
Nats 55%, Mets 45% in the FG odds seem right? |
12:03 |
: Well, base runs or run differential might have something to do with this. I actually think it’s right, but maybe wrong in that this is not the same Mets offense. But how you going to bake that in?
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12:03 |
Do you currently, like right now, own any baseball cards? |
12:03 |
: Still got my whole collection, but a stocked away. Still got all my late 80s and 90s rookies for all the HoFers too, and that Yogi Berra 58 or so.
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12:03 |
How does the pitch value work? What do they value? Also, BsR includes what? |
12:04 |
: Pitch value takes what happens on that pitch — strike, ball, in play, whatever — and assigns it a run value (based on what those things are traditionally worth in the past). The biggest weakness is that those things happened partially because of the pitch(es) before.
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12:04 |
swipe right |
12:05 |
: I can’t keep up! I’m trying to stay current in the chat
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12:05 |
If Kershaw were to work on his changeup and perfect it, how much more could it help him? |
12:05 |
: That homer-happy part of the year this year? I don’t think he has that if he has a change.
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12:05 |
don’t the playoff odds use the player projections somehow? & I think they update for personnel |
12:06 |
: Yes, some part of them do use our depth charts and steamer… so you’re right, that is baked in… but it’s just individual stuff, not the way an offense can be better than sum of parts once the parts improve.
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12:06 |
Thoughts on Severino’s debut? |
12:07 |
: Great stuff. Big velocity. Bad command early on, but also hit the outside corner black on 3-2 counts, consecutively, with different pitches, so he’s good. The slider was a little inconsistent but at 90 mph has great upside. And then the change was good by the end. At the beginning of game, looked like raw #3 with big stuff and maybe bad results. Near the end? Potential number one.
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12:07 |
One game playoff, who starts, deGrom, Syndergaard, or Harvey? |
12:07 |
: deGrom
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12:07 |
Do you see the Giants cutting back on Heston’s innings since it is his first full year/ He IS 27 though, so an old rookie… |
12:07 |
: Yeah I doubt they sit him.
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12:07 |
Hey Eno, my boss is a HUGE IPA fan and we are located in Saint Louis. Any insights on an IPA I could buy him as a gift that he may not have yet had? |
12:09 |
: I’m assuming he’s had the Schlaflys of the world. How about a Tallgrass Buffallo Sweat yum
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12:09 |
is Jesse Chavez going to continue to be un-usable down the stretch? Is he always just going to fade when he gets north of ~100 innings? |
12:09 |
: Well he is just a little itty bitty guy. But I would really try to throw him only at home.
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12:10 |
What does Rubby de la rosa need to do to limit his homeruns? Seems like thats the only thing holding him back at this point |
12:10 |
: Consistency on his change and slider.
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12:10 |
Stop kissing your boss’s ass, he won’t give you that promotion if you buy him the beer. |
12:10 |
: But he might share it with you
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12:10 |
how does this delivery produce more than 60 mph, let alone 82? http://m.mlb.com/video/v337… |
12:11 |
: That’s all arm strength. Also, look at Tyson Ross lol
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12:11 |
Syndergaard or Severino for their career? |
12:11 |
: Careers are fickle beasts. Thor, but he’s had some forearm stuff already so
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12:11 |
What to do with Joc in redrafts? Not at the top of the order any more, still drawing walks, but in the midst of a prolonged slump. Be patient or look for a more consistent option for the stretch run? |
12:11 |
I am about to start platooning Pederson and Tucker given Joc’s struggles the last 6 weeks. Do you see Pederson coming back to life down the stretch at all or is he going to have to make his next set of adjustments in the offseason? |
12:12 |
: You could sit him against lefties, why not. Make it easy on him. But I’m not dropping him.
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12:12 |
Talk to me about Matt Boyd. Worth a flyer in an AL-only league? |
12:12 |
: yes. Major velocity bump while working with Kyle Boddy.
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12:12 |
Predict what the years/AAV of Darren O’Day’s next contract. |
12:12 |
: 3/24? People don’t seem to trust sidearmers, but he’s been great. 3/30?
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12:12 |
Is Ben Paulsen maybe a Corey Dickerson-lite? I know he’s only got 100 or so games in the bigs, but a 22% HR/FB rate is eye-catching. |
12:13 |
: Well, you also have to consider his age. Paulsen is an older dude with very little projection left.
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12:13 |
next five years: Correa or Soler |
12:13 |
: Correa
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12:13 |
If mets don’t win division, any chance they win a wild card? |
12:13 |
: yes
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12:13 |
Do you foresee the creation of any new statistics that rely on inputs from statcast data as it gets better? If so, what would these look like? |
12:14 |
: I think we’ll just get better D numbers that have similar structure but are better. Then maybe a completely new speed stat, maybe a new way of measuring contact that will look simliar to past xBABIPs but be way better, using angle, velocity off bat.
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12:14 |
I’ve been very interested in grips recently and accumulated almost 200 pics of grips from you, youtube, and other places. Are there any grips I wouldn’t be able to find that you could provide me? |
12:15 |
: Well I’m currently in the process of pitching a book on them, so I gotta keep some in the vault lol
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12:15 |
Wellington Castillo has been going off lately. Would you hold onto him, or drop him for Yan Gomes? Wilson Ramos? |
12:15 |
: I’d rather have him than Wilson yes
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12:15 |
Going to my first Outside Lands this weekend since the inaugural concert in 2008 (where radiohead’s set was basically ruined by rain/terrible sound). |
12:15 |
: Have fun! I went one year as Andrew Bird’s guest and that was fun as heck. Saw Beck.
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12:16 |
New York Mets are the best team in baseball, or the greatest team in baseball? |
12:16 |
: In our hearts. Sorry, no bias here. “in some people’s hearts, probably in Queens and other parts of New York, mostly”
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12:16 |
I’ve been getting into porters lately. Two questions: 1) why do people hate on drinking porters in the summer? It’s just as cold as other beers. 2) What’s your favorite? |
12:18 |
: I think they are thick, and people want watery-tasting beers in summer. but there are times when I’m all over it. I really like Victory at Sea, especially with the coffee/vanilla adjuncts they put it in it sometimes. An aged Black Butte is on my list. Edmund Fitzgerald.
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12:18 |
Eno-no! No no no no nono no no! Nobody can do a CHAT! like he do. Nobody can do the BASEBALLSTUFF like he do! |
12:18 |
Happy Jamaica day! Have you every had full on dreads? |
12:18 |
: wait it’s Jamaica day, too??? (no)
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12:18 |
What to expect from Martin Perez ROS ? |
12:18 |
: I’m not a fan.
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12:19 |
What causes natural velocity loss in pitchers? It is slight elbow damage or shoulder damage? It doesn’t seem to be due to “normal physical decline”. Why do we know so little on why Chapman can throw 103 and Buerhle in the mid-80’s? |
12:19 |
: I think it’s a repetitive movement that leads to gradual deterioration, and that loss can only be worked against by working out the muscles around the joints that are affected.
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12:20 |
Great Lakes Brewery Edmund Fitzgerald? |
12:20 |
: That’s the one.
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12:20 |
When I look at most of Michael Wacha’s numbers and stuff, I wonder if he is already basically peaking |
12:21 |
: I think he could maybe improve the curve or cutter to match the effectiveness of his change, maybe. Without that, yes, he probably won’t have a strikeout per inning and join the fantasy aces.
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12:21 |
Severino over Norris? |
12:21 |
: For me, yes.
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12:21 |
I’ve got an aged Black Butte on an entirely different sort of list |
12:21 |
:
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12:21 |
Who has the most success over the next 5-7 years? Astros, Mets or Cubs? |
12:22 |
: I’ll take the team built on position players, and I like lower K rates, so I’ll take Cubs.
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12:22 |
oh btw i got the car |
12:22 |
: how painful was it
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12:22 |
Michael Pineda is the best pitcher in NY with a current grade 1 flexor muscle strain. |
12:22 |
Porters and darker beers in general are better when they aren’t as cold. |
12:22 |
John Oliver outed Beck as a Scientologist in a “buzzkills” segment….sad |
12:22 |
: ooooooh so much pain in this lude
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12:22 |
What did you think of Henry Owen’s debut? |
12:23 |
: Did better when he mixed in his other two pitches. Good change, but curve is super slow so he’ll have to command it to steal strikes on non-swings. Was amped, velocity was up a bit, if he can command that better velocity, he could be better than his minor league numbers suggest he’ll be.
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12:23 |
Who is your first dropper: Chavez, Hendricks, Cashner, Gio, or Nelson? |
12:24 |
: I just dropped Cashner in a league last night. It hurt. I’ll drop Hendricks ahead of him though.
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12:24 |
What grades would you give deGroms pitches? |
12:24 |
Change 7 Slider 7 Curve 6 |
12:24 |
obviously the book should be titled “Get a Grip” |
12:24 |
: Dude.
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12:24 |
Is Jacob deGrom now a legitimate ace? And for 2016, what is the chance that Harvey becomes a top 15 pitcher again? |
12:24 |
: Yes and yes
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12:25 |
Did you mean Tallgrass Ethos? |
12:25 |
: I thought it was the Sweat. Whichever one is better.
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12:25 |
Why no prospect love for Joe Ross? |
12:25 |
: Same reasons that his brother didn’t because wow do they look similar.
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12:25 |
I’m looking forward to a fielder route efficiency rating. |
12:25 |
Buffalo Sweat is a Stout…. not an IPA. |
12:25 |
: My B.
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12:25 |
Read into my future: will I ever have a cherry beer that isnt a drain pour? |
12:25 |
: Sour?
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12:25 |
You’re not worried about Boyd’s fly ball bidnezz? Or are you picking him up to start at home/friendly fly ball confines? |
12:26 |
: In terms of career prognosis, ground-ball-y-ness is not something I target. I want Ks and hate BBs, and maybe I want some grounders in a hitter’s park.
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12:26 |
Will soler still turn into the next stanton? |
12:26 |
: I STILL BELIEVE
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12:26 |
how do duda dudat? |
12:27 |
: he diddat by doin dat
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12:27 |
Polanco has looked a lot better the last month while Pederson and Bryant are trending down. In fact, Polanco’s avg is better than both of theirs. Can Polanco still turn into a .300/.380 hitter with 20 homers and 40 steals? that would be a monster |
12:27 |
: I STILL BELIEVE
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12:27 |
: well, Polanco I’d make him a .280/15/30 guy at his best probably.
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12:27 |
he do dat all duh do dah day |
12:27 |
I’d hope Soler turns into the next something that stays healthier than Stanton. |
12:27 |
Hey Eno – when it comes to Z-Mov, how does pronation effect thehoihjn OHhop OIHF OHHOH FUC OHOOHH OHO GOD I””M A WEREUIWOLF |
12:28 |
How would you grade De Grom’s hair? |
12:28 |
: This might really be the one that gets people mad: 6.
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12:28 |
You’ve been very high on Soler all year. Are you still confident he’s going to break out? |
12:29 |
: Yes. He is a manbeast. He’s shown the ability to make plate discipline adjustments in the past. He hits everything up the middle. In conclusion, he’s a manbeast.
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12:29 |
Will we see a run on Korean players after Kang’s success similar to the boom in Cubans after Puig was such a monster? |
12:29 |
Kang is a Top ___ ROS |
12:29 |
: Top seven and no, but maybe Park (forget his first name) gets more of a look. But even Park may be a platoon 1B which is not in high demand.
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12:29 |
: Kang was the best over there, by far.
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12:29 |
Has Gausman shown enough recently to be cautiously optimistic? |
12:30 |
: The curve is okay. But only okay. Not great, which means he’s still looking for a breaker.
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12:31 |
Puig |
12:31 |
How can Yasiel Puig continue to hit the ball so hard and have such ‘meh’ results? Same question, but for Jorge Soler? |
12:32 |
: Puig is still a keep five keeper for me. Him and Soler are a minor adjustment away from fire. Of course Soler is behind Puig, because of strikeout rate mostly. But both have massive physical tools and have shown skills in the past that are very impressive. Age also suggests that they are very pre-peak.
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12:33 |
The Puig/Soler owner in my dynasty league wants to package them up for 1 “steady and well rounded OF producer”……Would it require balls the size of Saturn to offer Adam Jones for both? |
12:33 |
: I love it.
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12:33 |
I guess Preston Tucker gets squeezed when Springer gets back? Do you think he’s shown enough to stick as the 4th outfielder next year? |
12:33 |
: Yeah he gets squeezed but yeah he sticks around
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12:33 |
Even if it is out of the bullpen, the prospect of seeing Stroman pitch in 2015 is great news. |
12:33 |
: agree
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12:33 |
Are you buying what Eaton and Melky have been selling lately? |
12:33 |
: .275/15/15 and .280/10/0 is what I’m buying.
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12:33 |
Wow, my head is spinning everytime I try to figure out the Mariner closer role. Whoever Lloyd sends out in the ninth seems to implode. Who do you think gets the job next year or do they bring in some high priced help? |
12:34 |
: Man that team… could blow up. Could really blow up. I’ll take Smith either way.
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12:34 |
who has your favorite swing in baseball right now? |
12:34 |
: Really like Donaldson’s, JD Martinez, Votto.
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12:34 |
Will we still be talking about Rare Barrel in 5 years? |
12:34 |
: Yes
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12:34 |
thor’s hair is better than degrom’s, apologies to anyone offended but it’s the truth |
12:35 |
: except in the part covered by the hat, but man that part is not kind to most baseball players. I’d be like Pence, hat off unless on the field. #killshair
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12:35 |
I always liked the future of Josh Fields but I’m wondering if he might be running out of time to factor into the closer equation of the future. Do you think he’s buried too deep (Gregerson, Neshek, Qualls, Smith) to be in the running for next year? |
12:35 |
: Perennially in the running. Best velocity and K rate of the group. I think he matters.
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12:35 |
Eno, I’m a professional brewer and a big fan of your work. If I send you a couple 320z crowlers of our Imperial IPA dry hopped w/ Mosaic, Citra, and Amarillo, will you send me a Fangraphs shirt? I’ll kick in our rum barrel aged RIS w/ currants. |
12:36 |
: Um yes yes yes and yes. Yes.
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12:36 |
Ian Desmond – had a nice little hot streak a week or so ago, now back to striking out 3 times/game. Sell or hold? |
12:36 |
: A game built on physical tools entering a post-peak period. He’ll be better next year, maybe, but not great.
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12:36 |
Doesn’t it kind of feel like the team would prefer if he quit tweeting that though? He is a huge asset, and it’s in their best interest to protect him, even at the cost of sitting him the rest of the year. |
12:37 |
: Yeah because now it looks like Stroman had a setback if he doesn’t come up in September, where it might just be normal rehab.
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12:37 |
In my dynasty league Soler got moved for Jonathan Lucroy. JONATHAN LUCROY |
12:37 |
: In my dynasty, I couldn’t trade Buster Posey for Jorge Soler and other parts. Catchers don’t have great trade value. Maybe a little more than pitchers, but a lot less than other positions.
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12:37 |
Giancarlo Stanton: Barreling it so hard his own hands can’t take the stress. |
12:38 |
Darnit, Eno. . I love that my Dix goes hard, but I keep getting overly excited and then bam Dix goes down again. |
12:38 |
Kevin Gausman is dead to me, dead. A SP has to be really good to look just kinda good pitching in the AL East outside of TB. |
12:38 |
: luded
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12:38 |
If you were a GM, which GMs would you try to trade with? Which would you avoid? Both in terms of reputation and also trying to get a good deal. |
12:39 |
: I’ll tell you what, I’d avoid Dave Stewart after that nonsense on the radio. I’m 100% sure that asking for Goldschmidt for Kimbrel was a bit of a joke.
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12:39 |
: speaking of growlers
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12:39 |
:
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12:39 |
When Montero returns, do you think Schwarber starts more often (though in LF or DH)? I’d love to start Schwarber in a weekly lineups league but worry about how starts/ABs he’s likely to get? |
12:40 |
: You have to hold and see. Impossible to say now, because at times they’ve said they don’t want to play him in the outfield, but he’s been such a boon at the plate.
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12:40 |
In an innings capped league are you starting Hammel today? Nova tmrw? |
12:40 |
: Yes, no
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12:40 |
Is Carlos Martinez become an elite pitcher? The velocity. That changeup. A good slider. If he throw more of the sinker, he could be even better. Is he Carlos Carrassco 2.0 |
12:41 |
: Yes, the changeup is a totally different shape now, and once he really figures out how to use it with the sinker too, he’ll have weapons against both sides. Command isn’t always there, but it’s not always there for Carrasco either.
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12:41 |
On average how long would you think it takes someone like Thor to get a good feel for a new pitch like the Warthan slider? |
12:42 |
: We’re watching it with Thor. He’s thrown it in three games, and then it goes away for a while. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not until next year. Spring helps a ton.
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12:42 |
Nate Karns is a SP? in 12 teamers ROS? |
12:42 |
: 5/6
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12:42 |
: Which, given his back story, is great.
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12:42 |
What was Mejia thinking??? |
12:43 |
: What if he had no MLB career at all without the drugs? Would we be talking about how much money he cost himself? Maybe we should be talking about the fact that he’s made himself any money? You know he’ll get another chance from someone.
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12:43 |
can I get some context to this Goldy for Kimbrel thing I keep hearing about? |
12:43 |
: Stewart went on the radio saying Preller asked for Goldy for Kimbrel. And it was a joke.
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12:43 |
I have an unhealthy fantasy crush going for Yasmani Grandal, especially in longer term leagues: warranted or do you think he’s playing over his head this year? |
12:44 |
: Maybe a little over his head, but I like him a ton. Trying to trade Posey in a 12-teamer so I can start him.
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12:44 |
AAA Padres affiliate giving out bobble-bicep Arnold Schwarzenegger figurines tonight. Your take? |
12:44 |
: Love it.
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12:44 |
You DO know you’re going to move out of The City when the second child comes…right??? So, do you do the Peninsula slide, The Golden Gate jump, or the East Bay shuffle??? |
12:45 |
: I’ve had my second child, and we moved out of the city in order to have the first. I hang my head, but in the back of my mind is still hope that we move back to SF or NYC when the kids are older.
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12:45 |
u can tell a cat by the way it is |
12:45 |
Beck is a born-and-raised scientologist, not just a moved-to-hollywood type. He runs deep. |
12:45 |
Lower babips in July from Kluber, Carrasco & Salazar. Better defense or is the sample size too small to conclude this? |
12:46 |
: Well they did bring in Lindor! and Urshela! so they should be a little better. (a lot better)
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12:46 |
Thoughts on Jimmy Nelson finally showing signs of a breakthrough? And has Shoemaker turned his season around to where he was in the 2H of ’14? |
12:47 |
: I’ve been waiting for the new pitch to tie it all together. This is sort of what I thought he could do. He has the Richards package, maybe more than anyone. Shoemaker is just a start at home guy for me. Bad fastball, isn’t going to get better. Just hiding it better.
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12:47 |
![]() It's not kosher to laugh at injuries, but now that we know he's fine, that Yunel vs. Thor at bat is one the best baseball gifs all year. |
12:47 |
Pederson, Soler, Puig RoS? Future? |
12:47 |
Pederson Puig Soler career. |
12:47 |
I recently read the article “Narrowing the Schoop”. Based on that, last years numbers, and age, I am beginning to believe he is Manny Machado 2.0. Right? |
12:48 |
: Well, even worse plate discipline, which will keep him from being great. But Real Power.
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12:48 |
Kipnis on the DL has also improved the Indians defense. |
12:48 |
Post deadline trade idea: James Shields + $25-30M for Mike Wright, Ryan Flaherty and a low level prospect. Who says no? |
12:48 |
: Padres, maybe.
|
12:48 |
What do you make of the second coming of Odor and what do they do with Profar? |
12:49 |
: Love that Odor. Maybe they move Profar back to short in the minors and give him a half season to show he’s healthy, and they wait to see what happens with Andrus and if they can shop him.
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12:49 |
Do you believe in Home/Road splits with some SP? (based on your response w/ Shoemaker) |
12:49 |
: He’s just a guy that gives up homers because his fastball is crappy, and his home park suppresses homers. So in that sort of situation, yes I believe.
|
12:50 |
Eno! Thanks for linking in awesome music to your chats. Because of you, I am a huge Ratatat fan now. Also because of you, I never stray too far from the sidewalk. |
12:50 |
: Ooh lets link that new one then
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12:50 |
:
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12:51 |
are the rays going to be stuck in a cycle of mediocrity now |
12:51 |
: they cobbled together some pitching, Souza can get better… I don’t know how they break out
|
12:51 |
Whats a realistic season for Yelich in 2-3 years? I think Ive got fanatasy rose colored glasses since Ive owned him so long |
12:51 |
: I think best case is a Brett Gardner type career, but even that will require him to start hitting some FREAKING FLY BALLS PLEASE
|
12:51 |
I feel like Danny Salazar doesn’t get enough love. |
12:51 |
: I will hug him for you.
|
12:52 |
Why is there golf streaming on MLB’s website right now? |
12:52 |
: They know their demographic.
|
12:52 |
Anything to the Pirates July 31 deals for Blanton, Happ, and Morse all being guys who have won a World Series? Or is that purely coincidental? |
12:52 |
: Yeah that’s random. They needed a sixth starter and a righty platoon 1B.
|
12:52 |
Speaking of James Shields, has he really been that bad this season? Huge part of his underperformance is unsustainably high 17% HR/FB rate. Or is that actually a troubling sign given that he plays half his games at Petco? |
12:53 |
: I think he’s been fine and better seasons with more normal HR/FB rates coming. Throwing a righty change to a righty will get you some homers, but not like this.
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12:53 |
“Love that Odor” Eno’s trying to self-lude |
12:53 |
: OOH OOH THAT ODOR CAN YOU SMELL THAT ODOR
|
12:53 |
so follow up to the Odor ?….If I have Kipnis on the DL and Odor playing, is it safe to deal Kip for someone who can actually help me in August? |
12:53 |
: Yes, if Kipnis gets you anything
|
12:53 |
Speaking of Lindor, thoughts on his fantasy potential going forward? He was always knocked pretty hard as a glove-only prospect coming up. |
12:53 |
: He’s still that.
|
12:53 |
What are your feelings on when fantasy leagues should set trade deadlines? The league I am in starts playoffs after a 20 week regular season, and the deadline is after week 16. (weekly H2H 5×5 league) |
12:54 |
: One of my leagues has it at the MLB deadline and that sucks terribly. Yours is fine.
|
12:54 |
I thought the Texas Rangers were crazy for being buyers, but now they are over .500 and just 5 games back. Could this be the surprise team of 2015? |
12:55 |
: Yu needs to come back earlyish and perfectly. Someone needs to step forward to be a reliable number three. They have to resign some hitters. But they have some young pieces and more on the way.
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12:55 |
would you watch Jim Thome homering off Jamie Moyer? http://www.hardballtimes.co… |
12:55 |
AJ Ramos. Little bump, or bad news coming? |
12:55 |
: Have always liked him.
|
12:55 |
Brandon Beachy or half of an old chicken salad sandwich ROS? |
12:55 |
: I mean is it old like last year old or like yesterday because
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12:55 |
Are you a beer festival guy? Any can’t-miss events you’d recommend? |
12:56 |
: I like them yes. I really enjoyed Stone’s invitational, that was great and they give you a decent amount of beer and the lines weren’t long.
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12:56 |
Does Nathan Karns have frontline stuff? Numbers are getting close with that K/9 creeping up. |
12:57 |
: The change has pushed its way to average, but the curve is no longer “top five in game” type curve. So I don’t know if I call it frontline, especially with fastball velocity down to average-ish, or above-average, from plus.
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12:57 |
Whats the max youd pay for a great beer festival with unlimited samples? |
12:57 |
: 200-300? I’ve paid about that much for shows…
|
12:57 |
Who’s outlook do you like best fantasy wise of these young arms- Nola, Heaney or Gausman? |
12:57 |
: That order.
|
12:58 |
Are Fiers/McCullers/Velazquez sharing one rotation spot in HOU RoS barring injury? Are you moving away from all three if you’re looking toward H2H playoffs? |
12:58 |
: Yes, though McC, if he makes it to the end of the season, is the starter there. And he’s straight fire, worth owning.
|
12:58 |
J.P. Crawford or Alex Reyes in a keeper league |
12:58 |
Robbie Ray more than a streamer? |
12:58 |
: Less
|
12:58 |
: JPC
|
12:58 |
RE Karns: Do you think his stuff ticking down is due to fatigue? Hasn’t gone over 145 IP in a full season. |
12:59 |
: If that’s it, then he’s a 12-teamer, maybe a #3 next year going into the season.
|
12:59 |
I don’t **sniff** know *sniff** why Eno hates me so *cry* |
12:59 |
: Putrid changeup.
|
1:00 |
Offered JP Crawford and Giolito for Kershaw in dynasty… he got moved for Jon Singleton and Dellin Betances. I do not have a question. |
1:00 |
: urge to kill rising
|
1:00 |
Let’s talk a little Pujols. Power has been constant, average has not. Where do you see the AVG/OBP settling in ROS? |
1:00 |
: Without looking, I call him a .275/.340 type guy going forward. He’s old!
|
1:00 |
Is there a way to make it so that every time I have a website remember my username and password, Sarah Mclachlan’s “I Will Remember You” automatically plays? |
1:00 |
: BUT THEN WHAT ABOUT THE LONELY CATS
|
1:01 |
Trout is 1 for his last 20!!!! PANIC!!!!!!!! |
1:01 |
But serious;y, would you like a cat? We found a kitten and our shelter is full. |
1:01 |
Am I the only one that suddenly has to re-enter my password every time I make a lineup change at ESPN fantasy? |
1:01 |
: yeah what’s up with that
|
1:02 |
T. Walker: Are we going to see these ups and downs for the ROS with him? Any chance the M’s have an innings limit for him? |
1:02 |
: He’s just now getting to where he was last year (130ish), so he should be good for another 30-40 even for a conservative org.
|
1:02 |
Have you ever considered changing the name of these chats to “Fantasy Kvetching on Ludes?” |
1:03 |
: Well we have to be careful about that preposition there
|
1:03 |
I KIKIN BUT! I KIKIN BUT! I WENt 2 STNAFROD. I KIKIN BUT! |
1:03 |
how much are pitch count restrictions going to limit severino’s upside right now? |
1:04 |
: 94 pitches, five innings, going to be tough to get wins like that.
|
1:04 |
Taijuan Walker will be a stud…So walt enjoy watching him while he is developing his craft and don’t whine! |
1:04 |
: Hey I like what he’s doing. Figured out a good mix now. Always had frontline stuff. Been able to command the ball better after dropping the two-seamer.
|
1:05 |
I’ve seen 1,000 different articles about Tom Cruise in the past month from Grantland to FiveThirtyEight is this a Scientology conspiracy to get me to see Mission Impossible because it is kind of working |
1:05 |
: Well the movie is doing well and you’ll get a few clicks if you link something to a popular movie so that could be the conspiracy too.
|
1:05 |
Hey Eno! Would you considering swapping Wacha and Kluber if you’re getting Kluber in a no wins QS league? I am worried Kluber has been kind of up and down |
1:05 |
: I’d still do that yes
|
1:05 |
What happened to Fister? That trade went from robbery to a meh-fest. |
1:05 |
: Velocity so far down he can’t even get to his meh k rate…
|
1:06 |
Does anyone throw a palmball? is that sorta like a knuckler? |
1:06 |
: Damn the guy the Rays picked up in the Jepsen deal does, and then Holdzkom on the Pirates, but I don’t think either is in bigs. It’s more like a changeup than anything.
|
1:06 |
Giolito Karns for Quintana Soler dynasty? |
1:07 |
: That’s a bird in the hand and a bird in the bush for two birds in the hand, so yeah. It’s really hard to trade pitching for hitting.
|
1:07 |
Better in 2016: $15 Russell Martin or $1 Travis D’Arnaud? |
1:07 |
: TdA
|
1:07 |
Do you think we see Berrios this year? |
1:07 |
: Some day. Some day. Probably after they fall out of it, in relief.
|
1:07 |
Eno this Not Your Father’s Root Beer is just absurd. That is all. |
1:08 |
: I struggle with those because if I wanted a root beer I’d get a root beer, but maybe some day I’ll want a root beer and also alcohol. But that day is not very common.
|
1:08 |
What’s the difference between command and control? I’ve Googled it and seen a few different explanations. |
1:09 |
: Control is the idea that you can hit the strike zone, generally. Command is the idea that you can put the pitch where you want it. Which might be out of the strike zone.
|
1:09 |
Dude, come to Berkeley. It’s pleasant and hilarious. First drink at the Starry Plough is on me (where you can watch baseball AND friendly people doing Celtic jigs!). |
1:09 |
: I do like Berkeley. Spent a few summers there because Palo Alto was a terrible college town. Fieldwork is more Oakland than Berkeley, but I love love them too.
|
1:09 |
Thor has that pitch in his arsenal. Because Zeus is his father and he’s not fully human. |
1:09 |
shouldn’t it be ‘Not Your Kids Rootbeer?’ |
1:10 |
best streamer this weekend … Ervin Santana v Indians, Wade Miley v Tigers, Colby Lewis v Mariners |
1:10 |
: Erv
|
1:10 |
If you want a free beer, you can come to my house and watch baseball. I’ll do a celtic jig, and then you will take home the kitten. |
1:10 |
: pimp that cat, dude!
|
1:10 |
Major bummer to see Rusney sitting for two straight games. Do you think he sees at least 80% playing time from here on out? |
1:10 |
: It is a major bummer. Just play the dude and see what happens. Man.
|
1:10 |
Pimping a cat sounds like a major felony. |
1:10 |
odin is thor’s father not zeus come on |
1:10 |
: true, I saw that movie
|
1:11 |
: (it was bad)
|
1:11 |
:
|
1:12 |
At what point of time do you give up on a keeper league especially when you have incredible offers on the table that get you great keepers. I am 3.5 GB with Stanton & Springer shelved and my team isn’t really doing great. I can trade away my Kershaw for a cost controlled JFern and my Trout and someone for a cost controlled Harper |
1:12 |
: I do the first one because the drop isn’t bad, but keep the other one
|
1:12 |
ENOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
1:12 |
Hey Eno I have an idea SHUT UP |
1:12 |
Hey Eno swing paths mean a lot – a whole lot when you consider them in tandem with the flight of the ball and I think that statcast has done a lot considering the fact that the Tommy John epidemic is truly truly truly becoming an epidemic? What do you think is the best determining factor in bust rate swstrk or BABIP and further to that I think that jeter’s retirement has with the selfless acts of kindness how do you think contact rate I do? |
1:12 |
: wow. slow clap.
|
1:13 |
Have you followed what the Marlins are doing with M. Ozuna? I hate to ever say that Boras is ever right, but in this case, keeping a guy in the minors to save money like that is pretty bad, even by Miami standards. |
1:13 |
: I hate it. Nothing to be done. You can’t prove he has nothing to work on.
|
1:13 |
You know how an orca feels as it breeches the water, feels the sun? That’s how I feel about the Mets being 2 games up with 50 to play. |
1:13 |
Anibal’s pitching today… Odds he coughs up some more HRs? Also, can someone tell him to stop doing that? |
1:13 |
: I still think he’s going to be fine, turning it around. Can’t figure out the homers.
|
1:13 |
Not your father’s root beer… |
1:14 |
Me: Goes to Chicago |
1:14 |
Friend orders a pitcher of it. Drink two glasses. “What’s the Alcohol content on this?” *Dies* |
1:14 |
Hey guy with Stanton and Springer going down, same here. I feel you. You should have a kitten to cheer up. |
1:14 |
hanley, votto for trout in a 5×5 12 team mixer, is that fair? trout owner wants a closer too |
1:15 |
: maybe you can sell him on adding your closer for his worse one, but really even with the closer in there it’s fine.
|
1:15 |
Would K%-BB% be a decent proxy for measuring command? |
1:16 |
: Actually that’s not bad, because it takes command to K guys. it’s really hard to find a statistical proxy for command. Zone% isn’t it, because you want to put it outside the zone sometimes. CommandFx even has flaws — the catcher’s target is different for FBs and breaking balls, different with guys on base, and different from pitcher to pitcher (think of the catcher patting the ground with his glove to tell a pitcher to get it down.)
|
1:16 |
When you see players that you were really high on for fantasy purposes that are having the year you expected, do you ever tell them, “I’m happy you are playing as well as I thought you would.” ? Related: please tell Jung-Ho Kang he is awesome if you get to talk to him. |
1:17 |
: I tried to tell Kang that we loved him going into the season and he was like, sure, so did I, at least he said that with his eyes. Charlie Blackmon, though, I didn’t even have to say it, he was like, do you know Carson Cistulli because I’d like to tell him thanks. Duda knows that I’ve been tracking him since he started, since he was my very first interview, ever. But I try not to say too much about fantasy, it’s a weird topic there.
|
1:17 |
Then give him a closer!!! It’s Trout! No one cares about closers! |
1:18 |
: yes this
|
1:18 |
if the mets end up in a one game playoff, what is the proper beer and amount of said beer to consume during said game? |
1:18 |
: why not Lunch and all of it
|
1:18 |
Is this the true Yasmany Tomas? Good avg but no power? |
1:18 |
: no because I don’t believe in the average
|
1:18 |
How much extra would you pay to watch the world series, if, say, Cameron and Kenny were the main Broadcast guys and Jon Bois and Cistulli were the Colour Commentary? |
1:18 |
: For one game? $20 maybe. Tops.
|
1:18 |
Just read your Tillman article (multi-tasking!!) Wait and see w/ him ROS as a fantasy SP? Still pitches in that scary division in that scary home park. But gotta like his adjustments. |
1:20 |
: I think it’s actually very exciting. Not many pitchers combine pop-ups with ground balls. I’d like to see if it’s still possible, but his PU rate was still good with the sinker. Could really change eye levels, the change has improved, still has that big ole yakker. I’m moving him up to back end 12-teamer.
|
1:20 |
JJ Hardy got treated just like Ozuna is now by the Twins more than a few years back. |
1:20 |
: Happens a lot, really.
|
1:20 |
and by Twins w/ JJ Hardy I meant brewers….lol |
1:20 |
Am I good enough? |
1:20 |
: Yes, I think so actually. Apparently your breaking balls are no good and your fastball is straight though.
|
1:20 |
So Yasmany…….no bueno? |
1:20 |
: no
|
1:21 |
if Mets are in the playoffs.. obviously the beer to drink is Schlitz of Hamms. Something cheap |
1:21 |
I’d pay $200 if Charles Barkley joined them in the booth. |
1:21 |
: turrible
|
1:21 |
Do you laugh at the people who post questions in the comment section below? I do. Happens every week. |
1:21 |
: and I *never* answer so I dunno what’s happening there
|
1:22 |
Ian Kennedy a sneaky add given the Padres ROS schedule? |
1:22 |
: Map out the starts. If they 80% at home, sure.
|
1:22 |
If Tomas ends up being a flop can we call him Yasmany Nomas |
1:22 |
how long will it take the cubs to realize they should never start ross again even if it hurts lesters feelings? |
1:22 |
: something something framing
|
1:22 |
Is Betances a must own in dynasty, or can he be dropped for Stroman without ridicule? |
1:23 |
: Stroman is the get? Either one, you’re talking mostly about next year. And Stroman’s upside next year is just as good as a shutdown closer.
|
1:23 |
Is Joc another Bruce or Rasmus? His contact and K rates are extreme |
1:23 |
: Bruce with speed?
|
1:24 |
i’ve got a rebuilding team with darvish, stroman, wheeler, and bailey all out for this year but back for next. is this too risky to hope for all of them to come back strong? |
1:24 |
: It can’t be your *only* plan.
|
1:24 |
i’m having commitment issues when i see a sixer of habanero sculpin at my local. WHAT IF I DON’T LIKE?? |
1:24 |
: I don’t!
|
1:24 |
Who is more purty…Otis Nixon or Cody Rasmus? |
1:25 |
: Oh god Otis Nixon
|
1:25 |
You’ve probably looked at him a lot, but what on earth is wrong with Y. Ventura? |
1:26 |
: Sullivan found something about his extension and how his fastball gets pulled more than it should. So maybe it’s the deception thing, he lacks deception and extension, so his 94 is more like 92. And his secondary stuff is more good than great.
|
1:26 |
I had Cantillon with a friend last weekend. SO GODDAMN GOOD. |
1:26 |
: yup, doesn’t even matter which one
|
1:26 |
More likely to return to their normal level of production once they return…Kipnis or Stanton? Those two were included as “throw-ins” in a recent trade…I acquired Kipnis and now I might have trader’s remorse |
1:26 |
: You know, the hamate bone is not good for power. Stanton may not return to his glory this year.
|
1:27 |
Yordano Ventura is a plant to take some of the heat off of A-Rod this year. The Cardinals might be in on it too. It’s hard to say how high up this goes. |
1:27 |
: lol
|
1:27 |
About to settle down to a Spencer’s Trappist Ale. Made by monks, so it’s from heaven. |
1:27 |
Call me crazy, but I’m kinda liking Michael Taylor for next year. What do you think? |
1:27 |
: Like a Joc Pederson without the patience about half the power.
|
1:27 |
a little worried about breweries chasing the sour trend into some bad directions. sours take precision and perfection otherwise they can be absolutely terrible. it’s like the graduate school of fermentation. |
1:28 |
: Yes, the average rating for sours is going to go down, and with the price on them, there may be a big backlash.
|
1:28 |
Dynasty order: Kipnis, Odor, Wong? |
1:29 |
Ceiling: Odor Wong Kipnis Add em together, looks like Wong Kipnis Odor |
1:29 |
Where’s the best place to find out Doolittle’s velo once he hits rehab this weekend? On the ol’ Twitters? |
1:30 |
: Yeah I’ll be watching. Maybe Melissa Lockard @oakclubhouse or Susan Slusser
|
1:30 |
Yasmani Thomas is Delmon Young 2.0 |
1:31 |
: Or Dayan Viciedo
|
1:31 |
How do you answer all these q’s so quickly? Are you furiously looking up these guys’ stats or do you just have a general idea of how just about every player is doing? |
1:32 |
: actually just had to look up Viciedo’s name because I’m old
|
1:32 |
Have you been following Baez very closely since he returned to from the DL? Reasons to believe he might K a little bit less? I’ve seen some limited video clips of his swing: one with the leg kick, one where his foot stays planted. |
1:32 |
: Looked this one up, 26.7% K rate is not cutting it much.
|
1:32 |
I KNEW IT |
1:33 |
: Well hell if Dayan Viciedo’s name is not at the tip of your tongue then
|
1:33 |
Odds Avisail Garcia breaks out next year? |
1:34 |
: Still decent. He pulls the pall in the air, has wiry strength, has some speed. But might put it at 20% or so because the K% is not good and and swSTR is worse and he’s bad at stealing bases.
|
1:34 |
thoughts on avery brewing |
1:34 |
: By average alcohol by volume by beer, they make the strongest beer in America! I like Hog Heaven, but man is it.. strong.
|
1:34 |
I can’t wait to draft Puig in every league next year |
1:34 |
: I’ll be right there with you.
|
1:34 |
nah |
1:34 |
: Just… nah.
|
1:35 |
Avery brewing makes a very very good pale ale |
1:35 |
: so not the DIPA or Maharaja. good beers, I bet I might love their pale ale if it’s big tasting but not as big ABV
|
1:35 |
ribbit |
1:35 |
who had “5” in the pool for number of runs by Phils of Greinke before he gets an out |
1:35 |
LIVE LUDE LIVE LUDE LIVE LUDE LIVE LUDE |
1:35 |
So, which answering method do you think you will be using next week |
1:36 |
: I dunno, it’s hard to keep up if I try to stay current, but I think this one reacting more quickly to things that were happening. What do you think?
|
1:36 |
One Uncle Jacob’s Stout made me hungover |
1:36 |
: Yeah they crazy
|
1:36 |
I really really want Bernie Sanders to come to an A’s game and do the Bernie Lean. |
1:36 |
: would win the internet for at least one day
|
1:36 |
Who do you think gets the second wild card in the NL? |
1:36 |
: Cubs or Mets… Cubs? Mets better try and win that division
|
1:36 |
you comfortable making duda your full-time 1B in a 12 teamer? |
1:37 |
: OBP league?
|
1:37 |
Thoughts on Grichek….real chance at ROY…….long term outlook? |
1:37 |
: Too many Ks for that batting average, but hits the ball wicked hahd. So back end keeper league guy.
|
1:38 |
Breaking Anibal update: bases loaded walk to Alex Rios… at least it’s not a HR? |
1:38 |
: Hey the Giants have used that philosophy for years
|
1:38 |
There are definitely tradeoffs. It’s hard to keep up for the same reason we end up 45 minutes behind the queue the other way. But the ability to react more quickly–both to any news or to respond to a response–is worthwhile. But it of course depends on what you prefer. You don’t have to stick to the same plan every week, either. |
1:38 |
: Yeah I think I prefer this. I did go back into the saved comments, and did respond to some responses, if not quite in real time.
|
1:39 |
Interesting article thought – is there a trend in SB throughout a season. Anecdotally, it seems to me that speedsters steal mostly early in the season, and then less as the season goes on. This could be because they get dinged up and can’t run the same way in July as in April. Thoughts? |
1:39 |
: SB per G over the course of a year. I think I can do that. Not crazy. In general, I’ve been having a hard time with the category this year.
|
1:39 |
If all I did was run everywhere I went (like, including couch to fridge, etc), and did no other exercise, would I actually get into much better shape? |
1:40 |
: Actually I think so, as long as you don’t drive to work. Any amount of walking in your life turns into running about two miles a day I think. If you did that?
|
1:40 |
Duck of Death: it’s all about what goes in….not what you do to process what you have already put in |
1:40 |
: Well, both are part of a healthy lifestyle right
|
1:41 |
What happens to the Mets rotation when Matz comes back? Would we see a six man or what? Maybe some Niese/Colon platoon? |
1:41 |
: Six man until someone gets hurt or has to stop throwing.
|
1:41 |
“That’s a bird in the hand and a bird in the bush for two birds in the hand, so yeah.” what |
1:41 |
: Giolito still a prospect, so he’s the bird in the bush.
|
1:41 |
What the hell is Adam Jones saying in the mlb.com commercials? Can we get that translated??? |
1:41 |
: “oh bumgarner? He nasty”
|
1:41 |
I just dont’ see how Greg Bird or Matt Bush are fantasy relevant right now ;P |
1:42 |
: Well definitely not Bush
|
1:42 |
Nice piece on Tillman. What exactly does an increased spin rate improve on a 4-seamer? What are the odds he’s top 30 starter ROS? |
1:42 |
: more spin = more rise = more pop-ups, slightly more swSTR, and more effectiveness against same-handed hitters.
|
1:42 |
am i the only one seeing addison russell making the adjustments and on the cusp of a breakout |
1:43 |
: Read a good piece on BP Wrigleyville about him laying off of certain pitches in certain counts. Also wow, 10% BB, 19% Ks in July, that’s huge.
|
1:44 |
You catch Severino’s start? He’s crazy talented no doubt, but Law was right; the guy barely uses his legs at all, it’s almost all in his arms. What’s your take? |
1:44 |
: Not only are mechanics not my strongest point, but there are so many guys in the bigs that have different kinds of mechanics. Look at Tyson Ross, terrible. So I basically just evaluate pitchers on the now, with only a slight care for the future. Good mechanics guys get hurt, too.
|
1:45 |
Correa for Addison Russell and Giolito in a keep-forever? |
1:45 |
: Only if you getting Correa.
|
1:45 |
Re: the Severino ‘all-arms’ thing… black swan theory? Why do all pitchers have to throw the same to be successful? |
1:45 |
re: Severino, what do you do with a no leg power guy? tell him to use his legs and mess up his natural motion or just let him be until it doesn’t work |
1:45 |
: I think what you do is let him be him, and then if the velocity loss comes, give him choice: try new delivery (probably not) or go to the pen.
|
1:46 |
: (and maybe by then the command and secondary stuff has improved and suddenly he’s still good at 90/91)
|
1:46 |
Why are operas considered highbrow art and Broadway-style musical theater is considered campy-middlebrow crap? They seem barely distinguishable. |
1:46 |
: God I can’t stand either.
|
1:46 |
Hey Eno, can I cut bait with Anibal? Dude’s been a flaming garbage can lately. Would dropping him for Steven Wright be an upgrade at this point? |
1:46 |
: I can’t tell you to do that
|
1:46 |
oprea is actually pretty good with alcohol |
1:47 |
: Might need something different, cause yeah it’s bizarre enough maybe. That’s why it’s high brow! It’s more bizarre than Broadway.
|
1:48 |
no one can spend an entire act singing while dyeing in a musical |
1:48 |
You may have been asked and prognosticated before, but what it A. Russell’s upside fantasy-wise? .280/.350/.475 with 25 homers? |
1:48 |
: I’ll move those down a bit. .270/.330/.440 with 20
|
1:49 |
Dave B, that’s why musicals suck |
1:49 |
You need a hot pink neon light that reads “LIVE LUDES” |
1:49 |
What do the Mariners do about Paxton moving forward? Huge ceiling, but seems to have a very injury-laden floor. |
1:49 |
: Hope he’s healthy when the rest of the team is good enough to compete, I guess. Don’t count on him.
|
1:50 |
Let’s not hate on opera, now, guys. Inmates live and die on it. |
1:50 |
: was like what oh handle
|
1:50 |
: Oh man the time got away from me! Gotta go be productive!
|
1:50 |
His Soler, Buxton and Pineda for my Harper in 11 player keeper league? |
1:50 |
: no
|
1:51 |
wait, quick, who is the most fun fangraphs writer to hang out with? |
1:51 |
: I like hanging with Carson, Kiley, Jeff, Warne, August… man that house was fun. It’s a good group.
|
1:51 |
Thanks for the chat. Next time around I might be asking for advice for a first-time dad. |
1:51 |
: GOOD LUCK!!!
|
1:51 |
The fact that you’ve shared a knowing stare with Kang makes me oddly happy. |
1:51 |
: “Yes, yes, we both know I really am that good.”
|
1:52 |
: later guys!
|
1:52 |
Kang speaks the international language of incredulity |
1:52 |
Peace eno |
1:52 |
bye thanks eno |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Hi Eno. Could you rank these players for a dynasty league (categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG): Owings, Schoop, Souza, Ozuna, Alonso, Suarez, BMiller, KDavis, Alcantara, DHerrera? Any that you’re really high on? Thanks.
I am not Eno, but Souza, Schoop, Miller, Alonso, Ozuna, Davis, Alcantara, Herrera, then Owings. The OBP added with the power and speed of Souza puts him apart from the others. I went Schoop next due to being MI, his age, and his power.
I value power the most, then avg/obp depending on league, since those will also help you with runs/rbi as well. I will keep speed/power in tough calls, but always prefer to keep power, and supplement speed with other MI’s and OF’s.