Eric Longenhagen Chat- 1/3/2020

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from brisk Tempe and Happy New Year, everyone. Hope you had a nice holiday. The 2020 scouting schedule begins in a few weeks here in AZ, so I’m very excited. Let’s talk about some stuff…

I don’t know: Help a debate. Is Yoshi Tsutsugo a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a *rookie* and you could argue we should slot him on the Rays list somewhere because of that. He’s going to be tough to FV since FV is mapped to one’s WAR during the years of team control, which for most everyone we evaluate means six-ish years. If we do that for Yoshi, that certainly encompasses his decline phase, unless perhaps we just do the length of his contract. We haven’t totally settled on it yet but there are problems with dropping him on a list.

Dusty: New year, new opportunity to hear your thoughts on Wander Javier and his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Upside is still the same (there’s power, body projection, INF athletic profile, etc.) but the likelihood he gets there feels lower since now we’ve seen a bunch of at-bats and there’s a clear swing and miss problem right now.

Lava: Who is more likely to become a true ace: Daniel Lynch or Tarik Skubal? What are the odds we see them matching up in the big leagues this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Skubal’s heater has big ride/carry and Lynch’s does not, so even though Lynch throws a bit harder Skubal has the swing-and-miss fastball, so I’d say Skubak.

Eric A Longenhagen: But, of course, the chances either of them is one are tiny.

Jon: Defense aside, who has the best career (wRC+) as a hitter between Luis Robert and Jo Adell?

Eric A Longenhagen: Adell. The LouBob chase/whiff stuff is a real concern for some teams.

Sean: Does Gavin Lux have enough bat to stick as full time regular in either RF or LF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, comfortably.

brad: which prospect do you like more Jordyn Adams or Alex Faedo?

Eric A Longenhagen: Adams

Eric A Longenhagen: Had an above average hitting line in the Midwest League in his first full year of baseball. Pretty incredible.

E.Q: Where did Josh Stephen come from this year? Rough year at Lakewood in 2018, skips a level, then has a career year. Is he a potential lefty platoon bat this season for the Phils?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think a lot of that is Reading. I don’t think Stephen has the power to profile, even in a platoon role.

TDK: How big of a hire is Oz Ocampo for Ben Cherington and the Pirates?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, kinda of an atypical shift in role for that guy during his tenure with Houston, going from running international to the big league team’s translator. He’s got the central casting, Type A, Ivy league background but otherwise has some rare types of work experience for an A GM.

Ozzie: What’s your take on the Robert extension?

Now We Dance: Mandatory Luis Robert mention

MarlesChartel: If you’re the White Sox GM, would you offer Robert’s extension?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of interest in the Robert stuff in some form or fashion. I talked to Craig about it, so my thoughts are included in his piece on the site.

Eric A Longenhagen: We obviously like Robert as a prospect quite a lot despite the whiff risk stuff I mentioned earlier, All I have to add is that this is what the top of the international market looks like when teams are allowed and incentivized to spend. Robert’s got $76 million guaranteed before he plays an MLB game. Ohtani got $2.3 million under the new rules.

Blue Jays Fan: How has Adam Kloffenstein progressed since last year? Had a great season in the NWL

Eric A Longenhagen: Early TOR notes we have indicate no.

Heyyyy: thoughts on Johan Oviedo? Is he making progress to becoming a mid rotation starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s somewhat polarizing. Scouts like him more than in-office types. Protypical build, arm strength, but the command track record and the way the heater has played have analysts rounding down. He’s in that 40+/45 FV fringe for us right now as we iron out the Cardinals list for next week.

Ryan: Biggest 2020 contributor to MIN MLB roster: Kirilloff, Graterol, Duran, or Larnach?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Brusdar in a relief role

Aaron bracho: I have a very interesting batted ball profile. What’s my ceiling beginning to look like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like a Willie Calhoun sort of prospect, a relatively positionless prospect who can really hit.

Xavier: Saw the Rockies are looking for a RHH athletic CF as a centerpiece for Arenado. Is Bubba Thompson good enough to fit that profile?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I’m out on the hit tool there

LudeBurger: You have the dubious honor of being the first FG chat of 2020, of the decade! Congrats!

Eric A Longenhagen: (balloons cascade down onto messy desk)

Ryan: How does the offensive profile for Dylan Carlson compare to what we saw (MiLB) and can expect (MLB) from Austin Meadows?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess it’s relatively similar, but Meadows is a better defender. Carlson’s avg exit velos are lower than we expected and I have him in LF only, so he’s currently on the 50 FV/55 FV line as we pass around the Cardinals list and early drafts of the hundred. Obviously, Carlson is a switch-hitter, so that’s rare and awesome, and he’s performing above his age level. If you think the power still projects because he’s 20, he’s arguably a top 25 prospect in baseball. If you think the cement is dry on the body, he’s like 40-55

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s way different than Meadows as a prospect, but I get what you’re saying

Keith: What are your expectations for Andrew Vaughn this year? Assignment, performance, etc. What would he need to do to exceed them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe he starts back at Hi-A but it’s a quick hook (three or four weeks) if he’s hitting and right to Double-A in May. I’d guess he spends May/June at Birmingham, July/August Charlotte, maybe Sept in MLB?

Greg: Looking like both Puk and Luzardo will start the season in OAK rotation. How would you most effectively manage their innings so they can contribute late in the season when they are needed most (and possibly playoffs)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure how they’re gonna do it. With rehab outings in Extended folded in, they each threw maybe 50-60 innings? You could add 30ish innings on top of that to their workload for the year, and that’s pretty conservative. Maybe on ends up in a bullpen role and the other starts later as a starter? They have lots of options.

Maximo “Decimus Meridius” Acosta: Have you gotten a chance to look at him yet since the signing? Or have you heard any positive news?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, saw him in the fall. Might end up with a Josh Morgan style build that makes scouts wanna see him catch. Contact is pretty hard for his age, not a lot of projection. Maybe a 35+ on the Rangers list.

The West is Wild: Eric, what is one aspect of your job you’re hoping to improve in 2020? Seems like you’ve got it pretty dialed, but goals drive us forward, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve got some very specific Board/eval related stuff I’d like to do (stuff related to role definition, mostly) and video things I’d like to do. More pace to the lists, writing about data ownership for athletes….buncha stuff

Jason: Do you think Xavier Edwards‘ lack of power keeps him from being a ML regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s risk that it does but obviously we like him enough to have moved him onto the 100 mid-summer. I stand by my Luis Castillo comp (though a multi-positional role may be in the cards)

Howard: So much Gleyber Torres in Isaac Paredes…

Eric A Longenhagen: nope

Eric A Longenhagen: Paredes’ does not have that kind of athleticism or long-term physical projection. Paredes does not move like that. He’s playing in Mexico right now (some of his/Luis Urias team’s games stream) and looks quite heavy.

Nolan: Much has been written about the Reds’ attempt to find a SS this off-season. However, do they have a long-term solution at the position in Jose Israel Garcia?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he ends up with a 40 bat, but yeah that guy can pick it and has big power. I think he’s a possible long term answer.

Ray: Bryant, K Seager, Donaldson, or Andujar?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bryant

Purple Mays Haze: If a hypothetical hitter has a 20/60 hit tool grade (present vs future/ceiling) in A+ ball. What is the “expected” grade by the end of the year (following a “normal” development path)? 30/60?..40/60?

Eric A Longenhagen: Our present hit and power grades are standardized. So…
Teenager with advanced hit tool = 25
Teenager with neutral/raw hit tool = 20
College aged hitter (20-22) advanced = 35
Neutral/raw = 30
For power it’s 25 or 35 if the swing is already actualized for power, there’s already lift, 20 or 30 if it’s not.

Eric A Longenhagen: Once a guy gets to DOuble-A, we just put what we think the actual present hit tool grade is

Nick: Is there any material difference in scouting prospects at NCAA schools versus schools that play outside of the NCAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just the way the level of competition colors your look

SillyDilly: Should PHI count on Spencer Howard contributing to the team this year, or are they looking for him to help in 2021 at the earliest?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s up this year

Ryan: The White Sox project to have Cuban-born players starting at 5 positions next year, including Moncada, Abreu, Jimenez, and Robert. Just a coincidence, or do the White Sox perhaps view Cuban players/prospects as undervalued and hence good acquisition targets?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eloy is from the DR. Some of it comes from not playing in the typical July 2 sandbox.

Albert: Is Jared Oliva going to see a big jump when the prospect list is released after a great 2nd half/AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, he’s stock up for sure

Jimmy: THE BOARD question: how come there are 35+, 40+ and 45+ prospects, but no 50+, 55+ etc?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a way to differentiate the thicker middle of the player pop and also indicates to readers who we think has a chance to rise. So, for instance, there’s an Ethan Hankins question in the queue that implies we’re low on him. He’s a 40+ FV right now. He’s a 12% walk rate guy whose had injury stuff, which funnels him toward the bullpen (almost always a 40, 45 on the high end) but he has ceiling way above that, hence the plus.

Eric A Longenhagen: couple more

J: Did any of Conner Nurse, Franklin Labour, Anyesibar Sivira, Andrew Carabello, Sean Roby, or David Villar merit consideration for the Giants list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, Anyesber Sivira and Andy Caraballo. 2B-only types who need to hit.

Scott: Varsho seemed to prove himself at AA hitting wise…any chance he takes 26th roster spot with good spring to be C, IF, OF and pinch runner?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe, that’d be awesome.

Rudy: 35 or 35+? Indians LHP edition: Scott Moss, Kirk McCarty, Juan Hillman, Adam Scott

Eric A Longenhagen: maybe Moss and McCarty

Billy Beane: Bryson Brigman fell off of your Marlins list this year. You out on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sadly, yes. Had a 2nd round grade on him at USD.

BobLou: What is Nick Madrigal’s K% this year in MLB play? Range is perfectly acceptable answer!

Eric A Longenhagen: 12-15%

Matt W. : Where would you rank international prospect Robert Puasson in this past draft class.

Eric A Longenhagen: We had a 45 FV on him, so 14-30ish, probably the high end of that range

Sigh: Joey Cantillo: Possilbe ML rotation piece after his velocity bump?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s still 40 velo, but big life, a great changeup and pitchability. Yeah, he’s maybe a 4/5 sort, and maybe real velo still comes.

Tim Robinson: Is there still potential with Shervyen Newton? He seemed so promising.

Eric A Longenhagen: High risk whiff guy, I’m scared. Tantalizing other ability, though.

Life or Death: Pick two out of these 5 based on personal preference of highest ceiling. Antonio Cabello, Gilberto Jimenez, Gabriel Rodriguez, Maximo Acosta, and Alexfri Planez.

Eric A Longenhagen: Gabriel, then either Cabello or Jimenez. Cabello has a better chance of hitting for power.

Veronica: Is it easier for a female to get a job in scouting nowadays? Asking for a friend…

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s growing easier and becoming more common, but as a more egalitarian social window opens another is closing. scouting is not exactly a growth industry

Mike from Tempe: Can you explain Ricardo Genoves’ FV rating? Average FV hit tool, above average power,

Eric A Longenhagen: catcher with huge raw power, has barely played, giant human who may move to 1B

Carrie: Why doesn’t MILB partner with a TV network such as CBSSN or NBCSN that is looking to fill content in the summer and broadcast a game of the week? Use that broadcast money to pay players maybe?

Eric A Longenhagen: MiLB has recently become more proactive, in my opinion, at improving their streaming service and attempting to box out other sources of minor league video (they sent a cease and desist letter to Baseball America regarding video from affiliates online) so maybe something is coming.

Austin: How long do you predict it’ll take for MLB’s efforts in China to start producing legitimate MLB prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: The population there makes this notion interesting, but I’m not sure China is motivated to move state-run athletics program toward baseball.

Eric A Longenhagen: Alright, folks. I’ve gotta split. Astros list early next week, followed by Cardinals and Mets. That’ll wrap the West Palm Beach cluster. AFter that will be the Northwest Valley (SEA, SD, TEX, KC).

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh hey, I have a book coming out this year. https://www.triumphbooks.com/future-value-products-9781629377674.php

Eric A Longenhagen: So consider that. Thanks for coming this week