Eric Longenhagen Chat: 10/11/2018

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, hi there. Welcome to today’s chat. I’ll get right to it.

Tumbler, Whiskey: Hi Eric, thanks for the time today. Are Kristian Robinson and Geraldo Perdomo the two best prospects in the Diamondbacks’ system?

Eric A Longenhagen: I woudn’t have Perdomo all the way up there, he’s still behind guys like  Jazz, Varsho, Dup, Thomas…but he is a good prospect. Kristian, you already know.

JJ: Just seen Santiago Espinal has been sent to the AFL – thoughts on him as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fall League disclaimer: It’s early and I might change my mind on these guys over the next six weeks. Think Espinal is probably an org guy.

Daniel: Were there any exciting names in Cubs extended or AZL? Reivaj looks interesting (and not just b/c the of the name)

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, Reivaj Garcia is good. Advanced bat, will probably stay at second base, was very young for the league and still performed. Could be a 6 bat with 4 power. I like Yovanny Cruz, too. Low-90s, t95, sink, good changeup. Luis Verdugo could be plus glove at short. The draft picks played well in AZL, too.

mike: Guerrero almost killed a pitcher in Arizona, what does him playing there do for his development? Its just Blue Jay front office trying to cover their asses because they didn’t call him up in September right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah he hit Tyler Mark with a comebacker to the head last night, it was pretty scary. I think the AFL has more to do with getting him reps after he missed some with a knee injury, but refreshing the narrative from ‘this guy should have been called up’ to ‘look how good this guy is’ is a nice bonus if they can swing that.

Eric: Do the Yankees have anyone in their system aside from Justus Sheffield who you could see being a solid rotation piece next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Loaisiga, if healthy

Hello: What would you do at 1B for the Mets next season?  Alonso?  Smith?  Other?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alonso. I still like Smith and think he needs a change of scenery.

Anthony: Hey Eric, I noticed that Stuart Fairchild‘s GB rate dropped significantly between Low-A and High-A. Was there a swing or approach change there, or is it just natural variance?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen him so not sure if there has been a clear change but that stuff typically stabilizes around 50 balls in play, so if the sample is that big there’s a good chance it’s real.

Anthony: What happened to Aramis Ademan?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nothing, I don’t think. Numbers weren’t great, but he was pushed pretty aggressively, tools are still fine.

ChatzMcGee: Was Kyle Wright’s “stuff” overrated coming out of college? Kiley has mentioned the Trackman stuff not really matching the initial scouting reports, and nothing he did in his tiny sample size in the majors seemed to dispel that.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you could argue his stuff, collectively, doesn’t play as well as the individual parts would suggest. Think it might impact how many bats he misses but still think he’s going to be quite good.

John Smoltz’s Great Aunt: Any predictions for the Mesa brothers and Gaston?

Eric A Longenhagen: Miami

Phan: What does JP Crawford look like going forward? Rough rookie year with all the injuries

Eric A Longenhagen: Still has issues getting to pitches away from him. Still think he’s going to be an above-average OBP, plus glove at short.

Jason Aldean’s Wet Dream: If the Dbacks move Goldschmidt, where could he land? What would a potential package look like?

Eric A Longenhagen: If they move him this offseason it’s one full year of Goldy plus the pick from the Qualifying offer. That’s pretty good. As far as landing spots go, look to contending teams with a hole at first base or flexibility there. Seattle comes to mind but they’d be easily outbid because the system isn’t great. The Rockies fit. That’d be fun.

My Mama Says: Any chance Trevor Richards and his magic changeup become a legit mlb starter (4-5)

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think there’s enough else going on for that kind of thing, but that is a 70 changeup.

Bob Costas: Welcome back to the chat where we have our special guest Evan Leinenkugel.  Now Eric, you’ve been writing about prospects (yes, Gerald, baseball prospects) for quite some time now.  After seeing Don Szszymberski’s ZIPs projections for Vlad Jr., can you recall any other player expected to perform that highly out of the gate?  Thanks for your time, Mr. Longoria.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’re too hard on broadcasters for malapropisms. Talking for three hours without goofing is impossible, especially as you get older.

Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: How many years until the Royals can produce a homegrown core that could legitimately help them contend?

Eric A Longenhagen: If all this pitching hits it’s actually not all that long. Maybe you start seeing a stream of big leaguers graduating in 2-3 years. If three of Mondesi, Lee, Pratto, Melendez and Seuly work out, that plus some of these college arms is a nice core.

Mark: THE BOARD question — Would it be possible, whether on player pages or the sortable list, to include hit tool indicators, showing what makes a guy’s hit tool what it is? For example, two players could have a 55 FV, but one has contact issues coupled with great barrel control, while another might have great contact skills but a suspect eye at the plate. While understanding the extra layer of practical complexity, I would find it immensely valuable to understanding what a player’s profile actually is.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, splitting the hit tool into components would be good. We do have an idea for showing that stuff, just not sure how to implement it on the site right now.

Andy: What Cubs’ prospects in the AFL are you interested in getting a look out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Justin Steele, who I get this afternoon (which is why this chat will end slightly early)

Rollie’s Mustache: Any recent news on Anderson Espinoza? It was reported mid-season that he’d line up to pitch in Fall instructional league games but I didn’t see his name added to rosters. TJ recovery not going as hoped or are the Padres just being extra cautious?

Eric A Longenhagen: He did not throw this fall

Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: When evaluating and ranking a pitching prospect who misses a year due to TJ surgery, do you essentially keep your 20-80 evaluations the same and just up the risk factor?

Eric A Longenhagen: More risk and their time horizon changes.

Sir Nerdlington: How extreme does a player’s character have to be before it’d affect your FV rating on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Extreme enough that we’ve heard about the issues, which is pretty rare. It’s like maybe 6 guys total. The Seth Romero types

Joe: Any standouts from Brewers Instructs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Several. Ashby, Daniel Castillo, Eddy Garcia, Turang, Zhao

Sneaky Snake: What happened with Jon Duplantier this year?  Missed a bunch of time but not much out about his status.  Does he make an appearance in MLB in 2019?  Is he destined for the pen, or can he still be an impact starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had hamstring injury during spring training, biceps tendinitis during the summer. Has the stuff and control to start, the org is starved for starters. Think he starts.

Frank Menechino: Could you see Beane trading some lower level guys (Beck, Lazarito, Allen) for an SP? Could those three get anything worthwhile?

Eric A Longenhagen: If they did anything like that I think it’d be right up against the trade deadline. Think they’d have to feel strongly that they’re competitive to move prospects like that.

Mikeal: Who do you like more, Gonzalez or Reyes?

Eric A Longenhagen: …..]

Chuncey Wiggins: Do scouts ever switch sports?

Eric A Longenhagen: Other than Jonah Hill’s Moneyball character, I can’t think of anyone switching sports off the top of my head.

Joe: Saw Payton Henry won a GG at C. How would you rate his throw and defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: 55 arm, 4 glove

Guest: How concerned are you by Senzel’s elbow injury forcing him to miss the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not concerned about this one on its own, but starting to get antsy about all of them piling up

KG2: Are Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Josh Hader starting pitchers for the Brewers in years to come?

Eric A Longenhagen: Uh, I think they’ll provide starting pitcher value but maybe won’t start games?

Guest: Who was one player you were shocked to see included on an AFL roster, and one player who didn’t make the cut but you were hoping to see?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I was surprised to see Andres Gimenez given his age. I wanted Tatis

Jeremy: Any thoughts on Brailyn Marquez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Mid-90s from the left side, 55 curveball, kind of a weird delivery but it works. He’s good.

Matt: What about Widener keeps him at a 40 when his stats look really good?

Eric A Longenhagen: Well obviously more goes into this than the stats. He’ll probably move up on the offseason list, but basically if we think there’s a chance you’re a single-inning reliever you’re gonna be a 40.

Prison Mike: Does a really strong showing through the AFL raise Keston Hiura‘s stock any higher, or does it just further justify his near top 20 status.  Could the tools tick up a grade?

Eric A Longenhagen: For me his presence here is going to determine where we project him, defensively. The bat is real.

Norman Golan: What’s the word on Malcolm Nunez?  His Dominican Summer League stats are off the charts.  Think he can keep it up, and rise quickly?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sourcing hard on that guy. Mature build but chance to stay at third, plus power.

Anthony: How were Edward Cabrera and Johan Oviedo this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cabrera’s stuff was fine his control didn’t develop. Oviedo went backwards.

Hello: How often are you and Kiley at the same place at the same time?

Eric A Longenhagen: Excluding the few months he lived here while he was still with Atlanta, maybe ten days per year.

Chuncey Wiggins: Without naming names are there on the field behavior issues that throw up a giant red flag that affects a prospect’s projection?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll name names but the answer is ‘not really’. I’ve only crushed guys in my notes a few times. Rusney Castillo walking to first when he hit a roller into the gap that could have been a double is one. Jesus Sucre rehabbing in the AZL and showing up his teenage pitcher who was struggling to find the zone was another.

nb: Hey Eric – Question from a Iron Pigs fan (but not about the Phillies!) – I know you see a lot of Arizona’s prospects.  Looks like a pretty dynamic group in the Pioneer league this year.  Do you have any write ups on Alek Thomas, Blaze Alexander, and of course Kristian Robinson?  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: Thomas is plus run, plus glove at whatever OF position he’s playing, plus bat, more doubles power. Blaze is a below-average bat with some power who stays at short. 70 arm. Kristian could be an all-around monster.

Billy Beane: You have any strong thoughts on Jameson Hannah?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been very good here this fall. 55/60 run, squares up several balls every time I’m in to see Oakland.

Hello: Why is everyone so sure at this point the Marlins are gonna grab the Mesas?  I don’t know how this stuff works.

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re aggressively trading for pool space which, to Kiley and I, indicates they know what the number has to be to sign those guys and they’re climbing toward it.

Tom: With more players with unlikely power sources (Mookie, Matt Carpenter, Jose Ramirez etc.) is there more potential for great bat control prospects to tweak via analytics (swing path, launch angle, etc) to get more gamepower vs. what might otherwise be thought? Is this something more teachable than we previously thought

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup

Billy Beane: Do you have any idea what happens for the A’s if Kyler Murray suddenly becomes a 1st round pick and wants to declare?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a phrase that’s inappropriate for chat that applies.

Rollie’s Mustache: Does Eric Padinho start 2019 in Bluefield again or up in Vancouver?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s pretty advanced, he might be in Lansing

Huckleberry Jones: Anyone from the Rangers Instructional League team particularly jumping out or generating buzz thusfar?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most of the guys you know, like Bubba. But Diosbel Arias keeps hitting. John King’s stuff is good, mid-90s with tail and a 50 curveball. My boy Sherten Apostel has great rhythm at the plate but has been bad in his tries at 1B.

Ragonk Force: What’s Mike Matuella’s outlook in the bullpen? Any chance of being a high leverage guy or is it more middle reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: If his stuff ticks up in relief he could be a high leverage guy

Hecubot: You said Kaprielian’s velocity was down when you saw him.  Are we just going to have to wait and see if it bounces back or should I freak out now?  Also, any other A’s prospect notes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just wait and see if there’s bounce

Adam: How do you personally form an opinion on the performance of a manager?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just abstain unless it’s clearly so bad or good.

Adam: Favorite Billy Joel song?

Eric A Longenhagen: Movin’ Out

Dave M: Do you mind if readers say hello at AFL games? Not during play of course.

Eric A Longenhagen: Go for it

Mike: Why no effort to scout in South Asia, they play cricket, same basic skills, and they got like a billion people.

Eric A Longenhagen: No argument from me, teams should get creative

Tommy Bahama Mama: Who do you like more; Jones, Johnson, Smith, Nguyen, Rios, Anderson, Gonzalez, Martinez, Ortiz, Longenhagen

Eric A Longenhagen: Longenhagen

boofin’ & ralphin’: why are you a coward

Eric A Longenhagen: Jeez, this got dark really fast

BoBa Chett: I thought Corbin Burnes had the stuff to start?

Eric A Longenhagen: For sure, but what if pitcher roles are changing?

Cardinal Stan: Do you like Genesis Cabrera at all? Chance to stay a starter? Same about Ryan Helsley.

Eric A Longenhagen: Relief for me but stuff liek that from the left side is pretty rare. Helsley I think has a better chance of starting but I’m worried about his injury.

Dan: What are the reports on the Brewers’ Zhao?  Just missed him in the Ripken league this summer

Eric A Longenhagen: 90-92, 2 command right now. Curveball could be dominant.

Tony: Do you think teams consider makeup in the sense that they might take to a swing change? I.e. they hit the ball really hard but at low a low angle, but because of their makeup they are confident they can change?

Eric A Longenhagen: That probably depends on each teams’ definition of makeup, but some teams consider ‘baseball aptitude’ part of it and for those teams, yes.

Danny: Seen anything good from Peter Alonso or Andres Gimenez lately?

Eric A Longenhagen: I was at the other night game last night but know they each mashed last night

Ben: What’s your take on Starling Heredia? Are you down on him after a tough season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I am

BlueJayMatt: How does player development usually decide if a guy needs a swing change or tweak? Is it poor performance (i.e., if a guy is making a weird swing work why change) or will the make the change early because they that they’ll eventually have to anyway, and at that point the cement has hardened too much?

Eric A Longenhagen: If your TrackMan readout has big exit velos but low launch angles, you’re a candidate.

Hello: Have you ever been offered a job with an MLB org, and if so why didn’t you take it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but I really like this job for too many reasons to list in a timely manner, largely because of how I value autonomy.

Jonathan: When do you expect to start rolling out the lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Post World Series, probably. Banking some reports right now, though.

Nate: What is your take on Trent Deveaux at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just a talented young player who hasn’t put anything together yet.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Admit it, you don’t work for an MLB team because Carson has some kind of kompromat on you.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I admit it, Cistulli knows where the skeletons are and he’s holding me hostage.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta run to Mesa. Thanks for stopping by this week. Enjoy the LCS’s, I’ve got MIL and HOU advancing. We posted a new podcast ep and a rundown of the Cuban situation, so head over to the prospects page and check that out. Bye bye