Eric Longenhagen Chat: 11/8/18 by Eric Longenhagen November 8, 2018 2:01 Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy howdy, let’s do the thing… 2:01 RIP McCovey: What is your take on the Farhan Zaidi hire for the Giants and the sentiment that he could move Bumgarner? 2:03 Eric A Longenhagen: I dig the hire, Zaidi seems capable of helming a club. I’m skeptical that about Bum being good when the Giants are good again, so I think it makes sense to explore the idea of moving him. 2:04 Junction Jack: What’s the buzz around JB Bukauskas in Arizona? The stuff has looked very sharp from what I have seen. 2:05 Eric A Longenhagen: He looks good. 94-96, t98, four pitch mix, everything has flashed plus. Changeup hasn’t been as good nor used as heavily of late. Don’t think the fastball plays like 95+ because this is a small guy who also has a short stride and I tend to think of him as a nasty multi-inning relief piece more than a true 170+ inning starter, but he is good. 2:05 Jim Leyland Palmer: Have you gotten to see much of Daz Cameron in the fall league? What do you think the Tigers have in him? 2:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Yep. Basically the same guy he was in high school, which is to say he has a bunch of 50 and 55 tools, is going to stay in CF and be a very solid everyday player. 2:06 Dingu: Julio Pablo Martinez has put up really strong numbers in the AFL. Anything different from your perspective? 2:07 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll give JP all fall before I really make up my mind, in part because he has really performed, but I think there’s real 4th OF risk there. 2:07 Sharon: Thoughts on Jazz Chisholm? Does he have the skill set to jump into the top 50 this offseason? 2:07 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s aggressive but not crazy. 2:07 Brew Crew: Who gets more, Paxton or Realmuto? Hiura too much for either? 2:09 Eric A Longenhagen: Realmuto does. I think there are argument on both sides of the Hiura question. If you twisted my arm I’d move him for Realmuto but not for Paxton. 2:09 FanGraph’s Lurker: Now that the Rays have traded for Zunino, what will they do with all their middle infield depth? a 40man roster can only protect so many. Do you thin the rays pull off a trade? get creative with positions? a mix of both? 2:10 Eric A Longenhagen: I think it will be a combo. I expect to seesome of the MIFs to see time in the OF and, generally, for TB to be creative with usage. But I also think they’ll consolidate on the fringes of the 40-man. 2:10 Scuffy Mcgee: Do you find anything interesting with the fact that Turner Ward left LA for the same job in…Cincinnati? 2:11 Eric A Longenhagen: The assumption that people act rationally would lead you to conclude that something other than $ or title drove his decision, but I don’t know speifics. 2:11 Bearry: Heredia seems to have stalled, but steamer is actually projecting a higher ISO and wRC than he has ever put up. Do you see him having more to offer? 2:12 Eric A Longenhagen: .250/.330/.360 or so, maybe a little better if he faces a ton of lefties 2:12 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Michael Plassmeyer: 35+ on THE BOARD, filthy results. What’s the blurb on him? 2:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Toss out his stats, folks. This was a Big 12 arm in the Northwest League. He’s a quick-moving middle relief candidate. Plus change, avg breaker. 2:13 Larry: Nico Hoerner >>> Nick Madrigal 2:14 Eric A Longenhagen: I think folks drawing conclusions about Madrigal based on his late-summer stats are misguided. Hoerner does look wonderful, though. 2:15 Nate: Did you get to see Evan Kruczynski play in the fall league? Can you give me a report on him? 2:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. 89-92 t93, big frame, really gets down the mound, four pitch mix of mostly average stuff, locates, sequences. He’s solid. Pretty easy to see some kind of big league role i the bullpen or back of rotation. 2:16 Kyle: thoughts on Jake Fraley? I see going into 2017 he was a 40 FV but he’s been hurt a lot. Seems he underwent a swing change that helped his power output. His last posted game power grade was 20/30, what would it be now? .407 babip obviously isnt sustainable but is a relaistic future role? 2:17 Eric A Longenhagen: No change to his gb% so I’ll dispute the notion of a swing change unless there’s visual evidence. I have him in as a 4th OF. 2:17 The Dude: Have you seen Austin Allen in the AFL yet? Thoughts on whether he can stay behind the dish? 2:18 Eric A Longenhagen: I have and do not think he catches, but I will warn you that catching in the AFL (after you’ve been doing it all year and are now asked to catch an entire new staff) is hard and performance here can be misleading. 2:18 Sox not Saux: I’m trying to tell myself moving Carson Fulmer to the pen could turn him into a useful pitcher, but he looked SO bad as a starter. Part of me says he might just not be that good (esp without added velocity). Can he be saved? 2:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that’s a talented guy with desire to be good and I think he’ll find a proper niche eventually. 2:19 Dylan: What does a Met package for Reamulto look like? Gimenez, Alonso+? And does that package get easily topped by another team like Houston or Atlanta? 2:20 Eric A Longenhagen: BV was taking cellphone video of Alonso’s Fall Stars atbats like a proud dad watching a piano recital. Not sure they’re moving that guy. 2:20 Sox not Saux: 1-10 level of worry with Burdi at this point (given the velocity readings in AFL)? Still hope for the mph to keep trending up or is he going to be stuck missing several ticks from his pre-surgery form? 2:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Typically I’d say you should chill and see what happens, but the fact that he was 93-95 when he came back during the summer and still 93-95 here in AFL, was no bueno. He’s been shut down due to fatigue. I’m actually kinda worried. 2:22 Anthony: Meibrys Viloria a potential regular? 2:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Catching is so bad right now that I have to say yes 2:23 Lilith: Stephenson, Reed, Garrett and Finnegan were all once great prospects that faded once getting to AAA or to Cincinnati. What did the Reds do to them to destroy their development? And does the Derek Johnson hiring mean that there’s hope that they can be fixed? 2:24 Eric A Longenhagen: I was never Stephenson guy but I was on Reed and Garrett. Yeah, I think the consistent failure to develop so many of these arms means it was time for a change. I don’t know a ton about Johnson, though. 2:24 Rique: Is Nate Pearson destined for the bullpen? Injury history and showing that he can throw 103 in short stints seems to make it an obvious landing spot for him. 2:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t consider it his destiny as much as a perfectly fine fallback option 2:26 Salty: Great job at First Pitch….what’s a more likely outcome for Christian Pache – 15-20 HR seasons or < 10 HRs with 25-30 SB upside? And do you think he’ll get a spring training invite next spring? 2:27 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d bet on the HRs more than the steals. Between his aggressiveness and lack of breaking ball recog, I don’t anticipate he’ll reach base enough to swipe that many bags, but he will run ino a bunch of hangers and yank them out. 2:29 Gavin: Could Jesse Winker be the centerpiece for a deal for Kluber, Carrasco, or Paxton? 2:29 Eric A Longenhagen: I think other teams would trump that with better talent, but I think you’ve correctly identified Cleveland’s immediate need for OF help and I do think someone who could offer them it makes sense as a trade partner. 2:29 Greg: The Angels right now project as the 5th best team in the AL. Do they have any prospects close enough to the majors to contribute to a possible 2019 playoff push? 2:30 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’m not a huge Thaiss guy but he might be a Pujols upgrade, Jose Suarez and Griffin Canning could be in the rotation at some point. 2:30 Pad Squad: Padres will need an impact third baseman come 2020. If you were them, who would you most aggressively pursue between Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, A. Rendon or a trade for Jose Ramirez? 2:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Arenado 2:31 Pad Squad: Padres minor league system has very few impact position players after Tatis, Jr. They want to be the next Astros, but they’ll need their Bregman, Altuve, Springer, Correa, etc. Do you think they need to deal hordes of prospects in order to get impact positional talent back, or would you like to see them play it out? 2:31 Eric A Longenhagen: You asked, and I answered, this exact question last week. 2:31 Hawk: What do you think of SJU Hawks chances in the A10 this year? 2:32 Eric A Longenhagen: ¯\_(?)_/¯ 2:32 Cito’s Mustache: Do you still see Zack Collins as primarily a 1B? The White Sox seem very optimistic that he’ll stick at C. 2:34 Eric A Longenhagen: He could maybe catch the right kind of pitcher. Like he might be passable catching someone like Dunning but I wouldn’t want him catching Giolito. Also please consider that teams have incentive to publicly embellish the abilities of their own players. 2:35 Colin: Hi Eric! Do any significant swing/approach changes account for Monte Harrison’s success in the AFL or did he just have a nice few weeks? 2:36 Eric A Longenhagen: I strongly dislike the changes he has made and think the hand path, not the leg kick which was taken away, is the crux of his issues. 2:36 Mike: Melvin Adon, closer potential based on AFL? 2:37 Eric A Longenhagen: If he can locate that slider consistently, yeah. 2:37 Jake: Obviously, you’re very high on Rocchio. All the more surprised I was to not see Marcos Gonzalez on your Indians list, despite some pedigree and good performance. What is your report on him? 2:39 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s okay. More of a utility look than everyday guy for me right now. Rocchio has special bat to ball skills. 2:40 Andy J: Dustin May + Keibert Ruiz for Realmuto. Is this a good starting point and what level prospect would the Dodgers need to add to entice Miami? 2:41 Eric A Longenhagen: Thats not a bad start. I’d probably want two more guys I like in the 40-45 FV area, but I woudn’t be offended by that initial foundation. 2:42 NotGraphs Revivalist: Is Josh Donaldson the best value on the FA market? 2:42 Eric A Longenhagen: If he totally rebounds, yeah. I don’t know if he will, he did not look as mobile last September. 2:43 Sandy Ravage: Do you think Bubba Thompson could break the top 50 this year or next? Seems to be regarded as a sleeper with a high ceiling 2:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Wouldnt call him a sleeper because he’s a famous, two sport prospect and former first round pick. But sure, his combo of tools and performance are hard to argue against if he keeps hitting. He’s basically trending the same way Trammell was a year ago. 2:45 Ginny: Do you take the over or under on Fletcher’s 1.9 WAR steamer projection next year? 2:45 Eric A Longenhagen: Under 2:45 ____: Desmond Lindsay change his stock at all this Fall? 2:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Looks a little leaner and not as tightly wound, which I like. Swing is pretty grooved, though. I’m still in the boom/bust camp there. 2:46 Jkim: There are reports that Dodgers want to remain under the tax for the foreseeable future. Not a #fraudman twitter guy, but I feel that the fans should be rightufully pissed by this 2:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, fans should feel free to pressure ownership into funding the team. 2:48 Dr. Popper: Does Corbin Burnes open 2019 in the rotation (if after the off-season there is a spot open) or do you think he’s going to be more of a bullpen arm going forward? 2:48 Eric A Longenhagen: Rotation 2:49 Bennum: Missouri is an SEC school. 2:49 Eric A Longenhagen: duh, my bad 2:49 Inquisitive A’s Fan: Do Skye Bolt and Luis Barrera earn 40 man spots with Oakland or do they get exposed to the Rule 5 draft? 2:51 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s tough. I’d take Barrera. Even though I don’t love how his hands work in the box and I feel better about Bolt hitting some, Barrera has other stuff going for him: 7 speed and arm, some lift, maybe a tweaked swing yields something significant. 2:52 DJR: I’m in a weird spot. I enjoy the fact Scott Boras really always gets his guys massive amounts of money – to make up for how poorly players are paid in their first six years. But I absolutely detest every sentence to spew from his mouth and wonder why he can’t soeak like a human 2:55 Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda said my piece about this on Twitter. I wouldn’t use language quite as strong as you to describe how I feel about Boras’ desire to speak in mono-soundbyte, but I do think it’s tacky despite having tremendous respect for his work and importance. 2:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Either this is Boras’ actualy personality and he has freshman English teacher jokes for us, or this is a calculated thing he does because he knows it gets attention in the media. If it’s the latter, then I guess my beef is with how manipulative and glib that is. Boras is an important figure in baseball, he’s at the center of labor issues that are common throughout our culture but more visible in baseball. It’d be nice if he were, at times, sincere and use his platform to actually educate instead of quip. 2:59 Bob: Why are left-handed pitchers always more highly coveted than righties? They have the platoon disadvantage more often than not 2:59 Eric A Longenhagen: There are folks in FO’s who ask this exact question 3:00 Spicie Boy: What caused scouts to “miss” on Harrison Bader’s defense? Nearly everybody had his glove as a 45/50 “tweener” type 3:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Keep in mind that Bader Kelly Leak’d Marcel Ozuna a bunch because of Ozuna’s shoulder and that probably had an impact on his defensive metrics. 3:00 Greg: Daulton Varsho has 7 steals in the AFL. Is speed a legitimate part of his game? 3:01 Eric A Longenhagen: yes 3:01 Enrique: Is there a fan graphs scheduled event coming to Chicago any time soon? Can I make a request for one, would love to have you guys here. Anywhere on the site I can find upcoming events? Thanks 3:02 Eric A Longenhagen: We (well, Meg and I) have kicked around the notion of some kind of FG tour. If others feel this way, say so to Dark Overlord Appelman via the internet. 3:02 Bilbo: Are you a Freudis Nova fan? 3:02 Eric A Longenhagen: yes 3:04 Pickle Nick: Chances Andrew Vaughn goes in the top 5 of next years draft as a short R/R first baseman? 3:04 Eric A Longenhagen: 25%? 3:04 Doug: After a slow start, Cavan Biggio has really turned it on in the AFL. Do you think he’ll get a bump from his 40+ FV currently? 3:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not 3:05 Your Dad: Where does Matt Chapman rank on the trade value list now? 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: 16th: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-11-to-20/ 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Hi dad! 3:06 Blue Jay Matt: Bichette’s game/style is most similar to which current or former big leaguer? 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Go watch Pablo Reyes hit. Bichette is a more explosive version of those mechanics. 3:07 Rick: How is Taylor Trammel looking? Any time in CF? 3:07 Eric A Longenhagen: Not playing great but looks fine, if that makes sense. Have only seen him in LF. 3:09 Eric A Longenhagen: Gonan rapid fire some for a few minutes, then bail… 3:09 ____: What’s the highest you’d draft a relief-only guy? 3:10 Eric A Longenhagen: I think reliever usage is going to change enough very quickly that so will my answer to that question. 3:10 Reed: Not sure how much you pay attention to underclassmen, but how many of Vandy’s freshman and sophomore are worth paying attention to draft-wise? 3:12 Eric A Longenhagen: I think at least one of Martin/DeMarco are soph eligible. Gonzalez, Clarke, Eder were all interesting high schoolers but def college types for me. As far as incoming freshmen are concerned: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft?type=0&po… 3:13 Jim Acosta’s Hairbursh: Johnny Peralta a good comp for Issac Paredes, or is that too lazy? 3:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Hands aren’t that good, but youh’ve got the body, bat, mobility issues all nailed 3:13 Rock Pile: Have you gotten any looks at Jesus Tinoco in the AFL? Any change in his stock recently or still mostly just a project that might never put it all together? 3:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Stock up for me becuse the curveall looks beter. 94-98, downhil plane, 60 curveball, I don’t think the slider/cutter thing works well though. 3:14 Rockie Dangerfield: I’m seeing some people cooling on Brendan Rodgers because he didn’t turn AAA into a scorched wasteland and hit the DL a few times. Is he trending up, down, or steady for you right now? 3:14 Eric A Longenhagen: steady 3:14 JR: Which prospect do you and Kiley disagree on the most? 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Probably some teenage arm 3:15 NA: Which minor leaguer would make the best nfl nose guard? 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Curtis Terry 3:15 joe: Andy Young, looks like he should be on the Board for STL. 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Cards list drops first, he’ll be on there 3:16 NotGraphs Revivalist: Can we get a poll on that FG tour idea 3:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Would you attend some kind of live FanGraphs thing at a local venue? yes (92.6% | 38 votes) no (7.3% | 3 votes) Total Votes: 41 3:17 Eppler: What don’t you like about Thaiss? 3:17 Eric A Longenhagen: lack of power and 40 glove. He was a 2018 swing changer, though. 3:17 Clearance Beakes: I know it is early but how does the 2019 draft shape up in terms of top end talent and depth compared to 2018? 3:18 Eric A Longenhagen: college-heavy, light on pitching. In general it’s about the same at the very top. 3:19 matzabal: At what level does scouting the stat sheet become more useful than not? HiA? AA? LoA? 3:19 Eric A Longenhagen: AA but you still need to be careful of hitting environments 3:19 Jolly Joe Timmer: Coplay or Northampton? Choose a side of the river 3:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Coplay. BIS is there and so are my Nana and Pop 3:19 Guest: Boros is dumb 3:19 Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, I’m a Dimir guy myself. 3:20 Ian: Is Dennis Santana destined to be a closer? Good stuff, lots of Ks but never pitched past the 6th inning all year. 3:20 Eric A Longenhagen: I think he has the stuff and command to start 3:20 Guest: Any chance you guys could just give the prospects page link its own place on the banner? It would make my life easier. 3:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Hover over “blogs” and it’s there 3:21 Tom: Heard anything about the Maryvale renovations? 3:22 Eric A Longenhagen: I was there a lot this fall and it was hectic. Huge alterations to the entire complex are underway. I didn’t see the finished product, though. 3:22 Alex: Is Newman or Tucker more likely to be the future SS of the Pirates? 3:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Tucker 3:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, have to roll. Talk to you all next week.