Eric Longenhagen Chat: 12/3/21

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, AZ

Eric A Longenhagen: some quick plugs…

Eric A Longenhagen: the next three draft class rankings have been updated and expanded: 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Eric A Longenhagen: International Players list will be updated Monday, then team lists start Wednesday (Angels)

JC: Is Jeremy Peña ready to start for the Astros opening day?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, quality of contact in DR right now is not as good as last but still think there’s enough SLG there to make him a 50 SS. Gonna be a great defender right away, hit a few extra pull-shots into the Crawford Boxes because of how his swing works.

JD: I suspect this is a common question:  are there any major pop-up prospects that you guys became aware of after the last 2021 update (e.g. Elly on the 100) but before you post the first 2022 lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmm, there are a bunch of guys who ended the year as 45s who I’m pretty sure I’ll 50 this offseason (Stott, Winder, probably Foscue) but I can’t think of a hueg pop-up guy off the top of my head

Eric A Longenhagen: If there is one he probably plays for a FL-based club and I’ve yet to learn enough about him to say so right now

TBD: Has your opinion changed about Asa Lacy after his first year in professional ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really, I think he ends up in a place like Skubal, Snell, etc., these other lefties who struggle to work efficiently but still miss a ton of bats and have impact rate stats. If he ever finds consistency then he’s a stud.

Dave: Is Nelson Velazquez on the cusp of being a top 100 guy after the last couple of months?

Eric A Longenhagen: no

TBD: What are Pedro Leon‘s chances of reaching the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen: pretty high, mostly because of the rare defensive flex he has as a MIF/CF. Don’t know if his swing enables him to catch topside fastballs, probably a 4 bat with good power for his size, still in the 45 FV area for me after Fall League look

Bubba: Did we ever definitively learn what happened with Rocker?  Would the situation with the Mets make other teams cautious in considering him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure exactly what was seen on the MRI or whatever, and anything you’d hear from either side is compromised. The Mets want to justify their decision, Rocker’s camp wants to reinforce confidence that he’s healthy. I think whoever takes him next year knows they’re getting a volatile prospect, but they already knew that before the Mets fiasco because Rocker’s stuff has been up and down and up and down again several times since HS.

J: I don’t recall Pierce Coppola being a notable 21 draft name (compared to the others in the 24 board) did he blow up in fall ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Correct, it’s in his report on The Board (click the little clipboard)

PCH: When you evaluate prospects how much do you consider size in your FV? Seems like an old school valuation metric but I can’t seem to get over the larger players seeming to break down more or is that just a type of selection bias on my part?

Eric A Longenhagen: Size factors into the evaluation but not directly into the *valuation*. People of all shapes and sizes can play our game well, so I don’t really prefer guys be big or small. I’ll say that I break from most traditional scouts thoughts when it comes to short hitters. Like I had a national crosschecker kinda laugh at me for having a 5-8 2B as the top player on my 2022 Board right now, but like, don’t you wanna be on Jose Ramirez when he comes through? You’re cool missing because he’s short and pudgy? Seemed shortsighted to me.

Eric A Longenhagen: More on size: athleticism is more important. I tend to be more confident in short-levered hitters actually hitting.

Wesley: The Mets signings create some questions about how they’ll find room for prospects while in win-now mode. Do you think they’d clear room for Baty if he hits in AA/AAA? If his power takes a step, can he transition to the Show quickly or could the approach require a little patience?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m actually leaving my Fall League look at Baty with more skepticism than I entered it. Really struggling to get the bat head out there and hit velo. I  don’t think they have to add Baty for another year, they should just step back and let 2022 happen for him, if he kicks down the down, so be it

Tucker: Ryan Rolison has pitched well in LIDOM, is the arrow pointing back up for him? Does he have a chance to be a quality 5th starter next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s looked okay. Don’t think it’s arrow up in a big way, he’s a perfectly fine 4/5 starter.

Justin: How surprised are you that Cleveland chose to add Jhonkensy Noel to its 40 man roster, when he may burn at least 2 options before he might even be ready for the majors? (Assuming all this holds in the new CBA). Seems unlikely his profile ever gets taken in the R5.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think your premise for questioning it is valid, but scouts/FO folks i spoke with ahead of the protection deadline made it sound like he’d be popped if left unprotected

Ray: Did either Miguel Vargas or Andy Pages FV jump with their performances in 2021?
Vargas answered the power question and Pages answered the question on plate discipline.

Eric A Longenhagen: There have been pro-Vargas 50 FV arguments from my sources in the past. IDK, max 105 exit velo (which is indicative of like 40 raw power) from a guy who projects to play 1B? Love his feel for contact, think he’s a big leaguer for sure, just maybe not a 2-3 WAR 1B every year with that kind of power.

Eric A Longenhagen: Pages i’ll just leave a 50 on, there’s still K risk there.

Eric A Longenhagen: Jose Ramos may be a 50 FV, that’s a pop-up name for the guy who asked the earlier question.

Nico: How will the loss of draft picks impact the Rangers at 3?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe they’re a little less inclined to get creative there since cutting an underslot deal doesn’t mean you can use the pool space to scoop up several overslot guys later.

Guest: Hey Eric! Did Downs do enough in his AFL stint to help turn the opinion on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d caution against using AFL stats to judge anything, his swing is his swing and I’m not sure it’ll actually play. He’s a guy who I’ll source very specific TrackMan data for this offseason. How does this guy do against fastballs 93+?

Justin: To your knowledge, did teams have any indication that the R5 was going to be “postponed indefinitely” before making 40 man roster decisions? If there’s no R5 draft, seems like some teams might have made decisions differently. Surely there had to be some communication from the league on this?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, teams knew it was likely to be delayed (my sources think it’ll happen sometime in January, CBA dependent) but nobody ever thought, nor did they behave in a way that indicated they thought it’d be “cancelled”, and “postponed indefinitely” is a more vague way of saying they just don’t know when it’ll happen and they’re leaving the room for it to be cancelled if things go horribly awry with negotiations.

Eric A Longenhagen: It would have been a horrible screwup to have not communicated that to teams. No Rule 5? Why bother protecting anyone then? It would have been a huge story.

Ziggy: Elijah Green isn’t Jesus Christ…who would’ve thunk it. Tools don’t always make the ballplayer

Eric A Longenhagen: His whiffs-to-BIP ratio is the same as some guys who I left off the list entirely at this point (It took several scouts arguing for Brock Jones to get him on there, I’m not on Jayson Jones, etc.)

Mrs Phanatic: Will Jhaylin Ortiz ever get a call up? Is there a mechanical adjustment he needs to make or is it a plate discipline thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’ll make it, but what’s the difference (skill wise) between him and, say, Christian Walker?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like I think Ortiz is a big leaguer but not the sort who I’d stretch my 40-man space to protect, guys like this tend to be freely available.

Dave: Since you mostly cover amateurs and non-40 man pros, weirdly enough a very prolonged lockout doesn’t really affect you right?

Eric A Longenhagen: correct!

Jeff: Richard Gallardo…whatchu know about him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Athletic strike-thrower with 40/45 stuff. Not very projectable anymore. Depth starter look

Joe Don: What kind of package will it take to pry Olson from the As?

Eric A Longenhagen: From the sounds of things, it’s gonna take a huge haul. Olson’s awesome, so that makes sense. The one rumor I have is a 50 FV, a second who arguably is, and a third mid-level guy

Peter: Hey Eric. Thanks for chatting. How has your perception of Dustin Harris changed since the start of the season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think I’m in the right spot there, still. He’s a 40+ FV. Think some of the names currently ahead of hom on the Rangers list belong behind him (Lora, Smith, Acosta) but his grade shouldn’t change.

Dave: Rough news for Miguel Amaya. How much longer should the Cubs give him before moving on?

Eric A Longenhagen: all his option years? Look at what Jacob Stallings ended up becoming, catching is so shallow you take all the depth you can get.

Kate: Any word on the health of Jhoan Duran?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know he threw in Fort Myers during the fall

zurzles: With all the high ceiling HS talent at the top of 2022, do you think the Orioles are still going to stick with a college bat at 1.1?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually think that, if they agree Termarr is in a tier of his own, that they’ll take him.

Old Prospector: Hi Eric, I love your work! Any scouting insight on Seiya Suzuki? Do you expect an impact bat? More of an average regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: From Monday’s int’l update:

Eric A Longenhagen: Suzuki has been one of, if not the best hitter in Japan for the last several years, posting a .316/.415/.572 career line, notching a 20/20 season in 2019, and setting a career-high in homers (38) in 2021. The righty-hitting outfielder has plus power which comes from a dip-and-rip style of hitting, where he just sort of collapses his back side and tries to pull the ball with power as often as possible. That’s not to say Suzuki is a power goof. He has a cogent two-strike approach in which his leg kick gets toned down, and he’s great at recognizing and crushing breaking balls. In fact, if there’s on hole to his game it’s that he can be vulnerable to velocity on the inner third. Suzuki is at his best when he’s getting his arms extended on pitches well out over the plate, but he tends to foul off or swing under fastballs creeping in on him. It’s tough to say whether this would be more exploited in MLB and impact his success, and it’s even harder to say whether Suzuki will be able to adjust to MLB velocity…

Eric A Longenhagen: (pitchers’ fastballs in Japan averaged 90mph in 2021) until we see him face it. He has the talent to be an everyday RF with some hit tool risk because of the leap in stuff he’d need to deal with.

Eric A Longenhagen: i have him as the 4th best player in NPB. Yoshi Yamamoto, Munetaka Murakami, Roki Sasaki all ahead of him.

Tyler: So I assume the Angels list is gonna be rough. Is Edgar Quero the best teenager in their system?

Eric A Longenhagen: i have him as the 5th best teenager

Kate: How would you order these guys in terms of best chance to stick as a starter: Cody Morris, Peyton Battenfield, Jhoan Duran, Randy Vasquez, Brayan Bello

Eric A Longenhagen: Duran, Battenfield, Vasquez, Morris, Bello

Mrs Phanatic: What made Stott jump from a 45 to a 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: best shape he’s ever been in, bending and moving and throwing with a more athletic look than in college. basically looks like a slam dunk SS now

Jeff: So who besides myself is still on the Ed Howard wagon?

Eric A Longenhagen: me, just in the same FV tier as ever. Can still really play shortstop, not gonna be an impact bat. same guy as ever

Thomas: Thought’s on Gabriel Moreno playing 3rd base? Does it make sense to move him there permanently, if the bat is so good you don’t want him resting 2 days a week?

Eric A Longenhagen: i never saw him do it in AFL. I’m pro catcher versatility in general.

Kate: We keep seeing smaller guys with great hit tool develop more power than expected and yet I keep doubting them.  What are the odds a small framed guy like Jorbit Vivas can follow a similar path to others of this type?  Can he be a 50 game power guy?  Or would that necessitate compromising the hit tool?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you. Regarding Vivas specifically, it’s his approach that’s the gating factor.

Mike from Long Island: Can we imagine a scenario in which someone outs the sources of all baseball beat writers and other reporters? I think it would be kinda hilarious for the world to have it confirmed that Wilpon and other other owners and high ranking officials literally group text their cronies the info they want out there

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I can imagine this scenario if someone used machine learning to find patterns in rumor/transactional reporting. The industry is fully aware of some writers connections to agents/individual team personnel. It can be as simple as a single tweet that tips it. Like last offseason, a fringe-y Japanese player was compared, in a tweet, to a couple other players who have been awesome big leaguers. All mentioned players share an agent. That’s pure regurgitation.

Brett: I realize it’s only the AFL and a SSS, but did Owen White’s performance there move the needle at all regarding his propspectdom?  In a league where pretty much everyone got crushed he was mostly unscathed.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, probably just a 50 for me. Pitched his ass of. Totally sentient usage of all four pitches.

Kevin hire me: Was having this debate with a friend: Pasquantino or Wiemer who are you taking

Eric A Longenhagen: Wiemer, not close

Principessa: What’s your current take on Alex Binelas? Seems like the most significant piece in the recent JBJ/Renfroe swap. Do the Sox hang on to him with Dalbec, Casas, Jordan already in the 1B pipeline or is he highly regarded enough by other MLB teams that the Sox might flip him again?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brewers Fill Specific Need with Hunter Renfroe Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

Kate: Everyone seemed certain Steve Kwan had no chance of developing real pop and then he went and seemed to hit for more pop last year.  Is he another guy with a great hit tool who has been able to level up on power in a way that many thought he couldn’t?  Or was this a fluke?

Eric A Longenhagen: hit tool driving all the power out put. Max exit velo this year was like 101mph, which is a 20 on the big league scale

TomBruno23: Dru Jones, Jackson Holliday…man…as if I needed to feel any older.

Eric A Longenhagen: Right? Holliday and Crawford definitely made me feel like a new generation’s kids are arriving

Eric A Longenhagen: Holliday was playing 3 years ago!

Thad Ward’s Mother: How worthwhile is it for a team to draft an injured rule-5 player and stash them on the IL for a season?

Eric A Longenhagen: worthwhile for rebuilding clubs if you love the guy, imo

John: Is Noelvi Marte, Emerson Hancock and Kyle Lewis a fair swap for Bryan Reynolds?

Eric A Longenhagen: too beaucoup

TomBruno23: Is a Nootbaar/Yepez DH platoon realistic for the Cardinals in 2022? More exciting than realistic?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, think that’d be a pretty good pair and think you’ve nailed the role evaluation for both.

Kate: Jose Salas seems like a guy who could go a bunch of different ways simply depending on how his body develops.  Is this a simple sliding scale in terms of the pop and speed where as one goes up the other probably goes down?  I assume staying more lean and athletic would be conducive to hit tool development?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s typically a sliding scale but there’s definitely a Goldilocks Zone where you get big and strong while staying agile enough for SS (Corrrea, Seager, etc.) and the fact that some guys even have that outcome as a possibility when they’re 16-21 (Mauricio, Luciano, Witt) even if they aren’t actually good (Puason, Maitan) still means you wanna value them highly.

Matt: Occasionally I’ll see a prospect ranking where the overall grade is lower than the grade of each of their traits. How do I rationalize this?

Eric A Longenhagen: could be positional adjustment? Like a 1B with 50 hit and power is probably not a 50 overall.

Rodney: Surprised at all that the Jays left Samad Taylor off the 40-man? Feels like a guy who could stick on a rebuilding team as a 26th man. Long-term, too much swing and miss?

Eric A Longenhagen: the latter, think his stats were a mirage

Beanes: Could Kyle Manzardo be a top 10 hitter in this draft class?  Great debut, peripherals seem fantastic.

Eric A Longenhagen: here’s an example that fits Matt’s recent question. Manzardo has really advanced feel to hit. Does he have the punch to be a good everyday 1B? That’s less certain. Yes, def a stat-driven mid-level guy who we might be sleeping on.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Over/under 32 starts next year for Tony Gonsolin and David Price combined for the Dodgers? Sure seems like they need another arm.

Eric A Longenhagen: Under, though I bet you get 20+ from Gonsolin. I like Andre Jackson, he and Grove probably make some starts. Maybe Pepiot timeline gets accelerated, too. There are some internal options but yeah, i agree, they should supplment from the FA pool

Kate: Is Brandon Nimmo a decent comp for Evan Carter?  Maybe with a bit more speed?  From what I read, he somehow sounds simultaneously exciting and yet low-ceiling / boring.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nimmo’s physicality >>> than Carter’s right now but I get what you’re driving at regarding the plate discipline piece

Kate: Between Jose Rodriguez (CHW) and Tovar, who do you see as having the higher offensive upside?  Tovar has the larger frame, but it sounds like most aren’t super hopeful that he can develop meaningful pop.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kate’s questions are good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Rodriguez has higher upside because of the bat speed/power but I’d take Tovar over him. Tovar’s actually slighter of frame even though his measurables don’t make it seem that way. Rodriguez more explosive rotator, bigger bat speed. Tovar is the better SS defender, has a more dynamic bat path, better feel for contact, Rodriguez’s approach is scary.

Bort: Vargas’s max exit velo didn’t tick up this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: was 104 in 2019, 105 this year

Eric A Longenhagen: again, he’s been young but not projectable

SJ: Your last report on Tommy Romero had him as a multi-inning reliever, but he started basically all of 2021 and had really good results. Any reason to believe he can start or at least become a 5 and dive type since he’s a Rays prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: probably more likely to start during his option years, yeah

Eric A Longenhagen: but if you had to put him on an championship caliber active roster and he had to stay there, he’s a bulk mid innings guy

Matt: I’m fearful of calling Triston Casas a can’t miss prospect, but it’s hard to imagine him not making it atleast a solid regular, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: agreed, freaking rakes

Big Joe Mufferaw: Talk me down a big from Ken Waldichuk. I love the delivery, looseness, pop on his fastball and breaker.

Eric A Longenhagen: i will not, agree his fastball will be dominant

Tyler “SLAB” O’Neill: Are any of the Cardinals’ recently drafted college arms going to bubble up and provide some sorely needed depth?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pallante and Thompson both looked ready for some kind of role. Don’t think Thompson ends up being a mid-rotation guy or anything but he’s def a piece, and probably soon

Jeff: Thoughts on Rob Moore out of Arkansas? Seems like one of the very best 2022 draft prospects

Eric A Longenhagen: 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer | FanGraphs Baseball

Farhandrew Zaidman: Kody Hoese didn’t hit in Summer Camp 2020…didn’t hit in Rookie ball 2021…or AA…or Fall league….when do we start to panic that the bat isn’t there?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, i’m out

Dave: I know it’s coming out on Monday, but are there any top international prospects tied to the Red Sox?

Eric A Longenhagen: Feyli Encarnacion and Fraymi De Leon, both for about 1mil

Kate: Has the stuff ticked up on Kilian enough that you could see him as a mid-rotation guy?  Or is he still more of a 4/5?

Eric A Longenhagen: saw three Fall outings, fastball utility is great (can cut or sink, works east/west at will), cutter/slider thing is a 40, curveball is good, changeup is good. in that 45 area for me

Eric A Longenhagen: rapid firing a few more then i’m gonna split

Jeff: What makes a player projectable? Been following prospects for 20 years and have come to find that physicality is underrated and projection often overstated (Chris Volstad 볼스테드 is a great “old” example)

Eric A Longenhagen: room on the frame and a general looseness and grace

SF Giants: Aeverson Arteaga – what is your opinion on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: glove and contact, power output caricatured by new, windy Papago facility

Ed H: What does the term “pop-up” mean in terms of prospects? I see it mentioned a lot but even a Google search comes up empty on what it means.

Eric A Longenhagen: more commonly used to refer to amateur guys who came out of nowhere during their draft spring, generally means someone who wasn’t on the radar who now is in a pretty serious way

Trevor: Are either Gabriel Moreno or Orelvis Martinez going to make the jump to 55FV guys ? Or higher ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Moreno slam dunk 55 or better, orelvis is on the line

GWAS: Were you able to watch any DJ Herz starts? Do you think he’ll get a bump on his current 35+ FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do. Fastball really carries, changeup has developed into an above avg offering. Still think his extreme cross-body delivery (which is freaking cool) pushes him to the bullpen, but probably as a nasty multi-inning guy

jaysfan9293: any clarifications for why gabriel moreno and orelvis martinez were left as 50 fvs?  moreno projects as not only a plus catcher but one with an elite hit tool and potential 20-25 hr power (baseball america has him as their 8th overall prospect), while orelvis has at least equalled noelvi marte and marco luciano’s performances at the same levels (while being a couple of months younger than both).

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s just offseason update time, that’s all. Moreno’s hit tool isn’t “elite”, his approach dials it down

Tony: Hi Eric, Can you confirm what you actually mean by levers? Is it effectively a measure of efficiency in a swing? For example, Short levered swing hands are direct to the ball and the bat path doesnt have a big loop to it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Aaron Judge: long levers
Eric Sogard: short levers

Eric A Longenhagen: judge’s swing isn’t long, but his levers (just his arm length, basically) are

Matt: When a prospect has a ’70’ grade, in theory that should be 2 deviations in the positive. But is there sample group of only MLB players or does it include all prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: For me, it’s a 70 on the big league scale, not a 70 among the prospects

Mitch: Is Curtis Mead a top 100 guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda think so. He’s gonna be a tough one. Still super raw but really talented.

Dave: What’s for lunch?

Eric A Longenhagen: today will be DeFalco’s

Roctober: Elehuris Montero recoup any of his lost prospectdum?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’s just a 40 for me, which is still a big leaguer. No idea how he fits in with Cron/McMahon entenched

Matt: What is a ‘dynamic bat path’?

Eric A Longenhagen: it means he can move the barrel all over the zone. Dynamic: of a process or system) characterized by constant change, activity, or progress. I’m guessing you know what a bat path is

Bill: What’s the max EV you’ve heard for Julio Rodriguez and Noelvi Marte?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sourced, not heard. 112 and 109, respectively.

Kvn: I thought that Felix Bautista was a curious protect for the O’s. Dude can hurl, but would a team really carry a guy who ran a 6 BB/9 on a roster all season? Is there some tangible change in him that you saw?

Eric A Longenhagen: nah, i was actually worried he was gonna kill someone when i saw him he’s so wild

Not jealous: Why don’t you and Kate just get married? Then you can answer her questions all day long.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kate, what do you think? Wanna marry an irresponsible, sports-watching workaholic with more body hair than anyone you’ve ever known?

QBall: How much does late-season and/or AFL performance change your evaluation of a prospect?  Example Nelson Velazquez, who you stated is not a top100.  But did last couple months change evaluation meaningfully, or do you need to see what happens when he gets to AAA next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Perfomance? Like stats on paper? None. We’ve all been burned by this too many times not to adjust at this point. Fall league stats mean almost nada.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nelly’s eval has meaningfully changed though, he’s in better shape now.

Jacob: Good to see you chatting again! I really enjoy them.

Eric A Longenhagen: thanks guys, i’m out. see you next friday