Eric Longenhagen Chat 2/21/20

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s watchable Major League Baseball on today, which is lovely. I’ll be back on the team list grind starting next week (Philly and other Tampa cluster teams are up) but for now let’s chat all things baseba..

Toshi: Hi Eric,

Thank you for the chat. While ago, you mentioned during a chat that the Mariners got much better at developing pitchers. Is that because of (1) hiring new people who are good at it, (2) started embracing new philosophy or technology, (3) got better at drafting, or (4) something else? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: 1 and 2. I was in Peoria to watch George Kirby and Sam Carlson throw bullpens earlier this week and they have a rapsodo and edgertronic going in the ‘pen. The dev staff changes have worked out (mostly, one very prominent example did not)

Matt: Where would oscar colas rate by fv from what you’ve heard/seen? And any rumors on who lead(s)?

Eric A Longenhagen: 35, he’ll be on the list of whoever signs him in the honorable mentions. Had a director comp him to a lot of the DH-only type 4A guys

Henry: How teachable is plate discipline?

Eric A Longenhagen: Debatable. The statistical studies I’ve read (all from the pre-revolution days of dev) indicate it doesn’t change much throughout a player’s minor and major league career but there are some clear exceptions (Votto became incredible) and some folks with successful dev teams have told me it can be taught to some degree. I think trying to get hitters to swing at certain pitches (where they do damage in the zone) can be taught but maybe breaking ball recognition or neutral ball/strike recognition might be harder

Dave: One of the reasons that Lindor and Ramirez were able to tap into their power was by trying to hit the ball out in front of the plate. Youve mentioned, positively, of some hitters letting the travel deep into the zone. How do these dichotomies play off of each other?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can let the ball travel deep and still pull it. It’s about hand/bat speed that enables a later decision to swing or not, not about pull/oppo

Jeff: Mick Abel will be the best HS RHSP prospects since ______?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff was down late last year. Been high on him since he was a soph, but teenage pitching is really scary. He could come out this spring and be amazing or he could break.

Just a Guy: ZiPS seems pretty down on Shed Long.. Idk if he still counts as a prospect or post but what do you think he turns into ?

Eric A Longenhagen: He graduated last year. I think he’s a bat-first guy you hide on defense and that he becomes a 2-ish WAR type of that ilk. 2B/3B/LF/DH, not great anywhere but hits with power.

Dongo Lewis: How does an intensified focus on player development affect scouting? My gut tells me model and data driven teams devalued scouting, but if you have a great player development staff, doesn’t scouting become more important? Seems like prospects with good frames and good makeup become more valuable and those seem like classic “scouting” attributes more than spin axis and exit velos.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think “ways of identifying players to whom you can apply sound dev concepts” matters more and how teams think they can best do that (scouting or finer data analysis) varies

Fred: Hypothetical question. What are the odds a prospect ranked 5-10 on a team list becomes an above average regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: depends on the FV. 5 to 10 on this list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-21-prospects-washington-nationals/

Eric A Longenhagen: is pretty low

Eric A Longenhagen: On this one? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-arizona-diamondbacks/

Eric A Longenhagen: much better

Eric A Longenhagen: which is (another reason) why FV is more useful than just ordinal rankings

Bruno: Have you dug into to rumors of Nick Gonzales looking like a legit shortstop last week?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most scouts barely think he can play 2B

Duff: You’re completed some big projects last couple years: The BOARD & Prospect Week. What do you have planned next? Any planned movement to work for an organization?

Eric A Longenhagen: I get offers from a few orgs every year but I like my job a lot, and a successful FG tenure is one where I leave the site in a way that the work continues at its current level. I’ve got more ideas for the site, I’ve got a book to promote, lots to do

James: If a team has old, unimpressive facilities in the D.R., it seems like it would be a smart investment to build nice, new ones. But would that be a smart investment in 2020? I mean, if there’s an international draft in a few years, have you just kind of missed the boat on this?
(Also, is there going to be info on the international market and how that all works in your and Kiley’s book?)

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the answer to that becomes more clear once minor league contraction details are ironed out and enacted. If you have a limited number of domestic spots but can still have a lot of guys on the DR complex, then it’s still a great investment.

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, there is a huge Int’l section in the book

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.amazon.com/Future-Value-Battle-Baseballs-Superstar/dp/1629…

ETA maven: Hi Eric, How would you rank the following AL SP prospects by projected 2020 IP volume: Whitley, Pearson, Mize, Manning, Skubal, Schmidt?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess Schmidt at the top with all NYY injury stuff in mind. Then Pearson, then throw a dart at the Tigers guys.

Mark Yost: Ethan Small is apparently working on a slider this spring, say this offering sticks and is league average. Would this be a big bump in his value to say a 45+?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep. With the breaking ball he has the repertoire of a 45 but the strike-throwing and the way the fastball plays because above it’s velocity makes him weird in a special way that gives him a shot to be more than that, so he gets the +.

Eric A Longenhagen: And honestly if he finishes the year at Double-A or above and pitches well in a thick sample, he might just be a 50.

Jeff: Are you praying to Jah or Gaia or whoever for no disaster on every pitch Rocker throws for the NCAA? It’s not that he isn’t a badass so much as I do not trust the NCAA, even with Vandy’s track record of getting top arms to the pros healthy or Walker Buehler

Eric A Longenhagen: Him and Leiter both. All pitchers, really.

Dongo Lewis: Does minor league contraction make your life harder or easier? More players concentrated in complexes but less competitive atmosphere

Eric A Longenhagen: TBD, probably easier.

James: Will a high school kid who is being scouted seriously (top half of the first round) have conversations with scouts? Do team scouts set up meetings to interview the kids? Do they just sort of accidentally/on-purpose bump into them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts have in-home visits with the kid and their family, usually during the offseason before their senior year. They also interact with the player casually whenever they cross paths (player walks past scouts from bus to field, there’s typically charla)

Cole: Are there any legalities regarding what FG can use (info, content, etc…) that Kiley created before leaving…or that you/FG created that Kiley can no longer use in his new position at ESPN?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley signed an NDA and cannot talk publicly about The Prospect Oracle I found while tagging reef sharks in the Caribbean, nor can he divulge details of our remote viewing experiments.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Any thoughts on Yadier Alvarez’s maturity pledge and if he can resurrect his star?

Eric A Longenhagen: gotta walk the walk now, i put my hand on that stove already

john j: Should Houston batters be considered “at risk” or “distressed assets” this year ? Lots of roto owners are trying to move Altuve, Correa, etc. at reduced prices in fear of injury by HBP.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, if you’re a hardcore fantasy owner I think that’s right

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: How has Sandy Gaston faired so far? I haven’t seen much fanfare around him

Eric A Longenhagen: Nooooo ooooone throws like Gaston
quite as fast as Gaston

Eric A Longenhagen: He was 92-96 last year, walked a guy per inning. It’s a likely relief profile, no physical projection. He’ll exist in the 40 FV tier for a long time with that profile

mal tiempo: oscar colas isnt on the july 2 list— is there any real report on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d much rather have the 40 FV types I haven’t ranked yet (Bies, Chourio, Guzman, Lizarraga) than Colas

Hermie: Duh that this is a fantasy thing, sorry, but: Jeferson Espinal vs. Darryl Collins, who’s a better investment? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Collins has a better chance of hitting for power, Espinal has CF speed so there’s less pressure on the bat. Espinal is safer from a real-world standpoint but Collins has a higher fantasy ceiling because of the pop, so I guess him.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Carlos Rodriguez for the Brewers, stats seem pretty great but doesn’t get a lot of hype, why do you think that is?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a tiny dude with very little power, has an oppo-oriented swing. Might make a ton of contact and be a leadoff type but that’s the only path toward regularity.

kcbg: Hi Eric! Which is your favorite Arizona ST complex? Are there regular ballpark employees who recognize you and like to chat/give ‘inside’ info?

Eric A Longenhagen: It changes. Like Salt River’s parking situation is now bad, the Giants place added security because autograph people got a little out of hand when Joey Bart came through, etc. I love the Cubs quad the most.

Chris: Do you know if any Florida Minor League ST schedules are available yet to the public? More specifically for the Dunedin/Tampa/Clearwater/Lakeland area? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I am not. Does BA publish them? That seems possible. You might be able to email a PR person to get them, too.

Mike: Detroit beat writers seem to be talking up Torkelson as the Tigers’ likely favorite. Have you heard anything about where they may be coming into the process this year? Or is it just too early on all that stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen: Other than their Edgertronic guy, I haven’t seen any extra Tigers personnel in to see Tork just yet. It’s too early for that. He’s definitely in the mix, though, just on talent.

Jose: Is Aaron Brachos defense really so bad? Should still be an easy 45FV with the bat alone, or not?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m inclined to leave the 40+ on him

kcbg: Aside from Jasson Dominguez, which of last year’s J2 class is likely to reach the majors first? Someone with good plate discipline and strong body? Would Erick Pena fit that description?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you have the right two names

Mike: In terms of skill sets, how does Nick Gonzales compare to Madrigal a few years ago? Are they comparable as hitters, in your opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you look at Gonzales through a favorable lens it’s more like Hiura than Magic, Swanson, Bregman types

Stew: How would you rank the following in terms of the best chace to ever appear on a Top 100 list – Austin Beck, Marcus Smith, Brayan Buelvas or Logan Davidson. Thanks Eric.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still Beck, then Davidson and Buelvas

A different Matt: Would having a puppy named Scout increase your chances of getting hired and secondary lead prospect analyst at Fangraphs?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, that’s some Disney sh*t

Jake: Does Jose Siri have a legitimate chance to impact at the major leagues? or is he more likely a swing-and-miss 4/5 OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has nutty physical tools, has natural feel for lift, he’s just a volatile dude and ballplayer

pelkey: I feel like a more fitting punishment for the Astros would have been to forbid them from using video technology at any level. Not in player dev, mlb practice, game planning, replay. Obviously unworkable in a practical sense. But the attempt would make me happy

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s a funny premise but there’s no practical way of enforcing it. What if Dusty wants to facetime Darren one of his games?

Gavelin the Javelin: Can you explain what you’re scouting in “Bat Control”, and how that differs from the Hit tool?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can you get the bat to the ball in various parts of the zone?

Eric A Longenhagen: bat control

Eric A Longenhagen: Hit tool is still results-oriented. So contact quality, what pitches you decide to swing at, how your speed influences BABIP, etc. is all part of it. I broke it up into component parts this year to be more detailed in describing what comprises the hitter’s ability.

Eric A Longenhagen: SO like, Jose Iglesias has great bat control, but what’s his hit tool grade? Contact quality makes it lower than the pure bat-to-ball ability.

Jeff: I’m liking the Corey Abbott respect this offseason. What are your thoughts on him? Reached AA to open his second full year as a pro, threw alot of innings, spins the ball, no injury history, misses bats, possibly flexible as a former closer…

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in on him as a 45 FV. 90-92 t94 but with high-end spin for that velo band, plus command of perfectly fine secondary stuff. I prefer guys like Bubic and Yerry and Urquidy because there’s a plus out-pitch but yeah, Abbott’s become what the Cubs hoped a bunch of those college arms would.

Jack: How much breakout potential does Benyamin Bailey have in the next few years, and what is his ultimate ceiling? Thanks in advance.

Eric A Longenhagen: Traditional RF profile. Framed-based power projection. If he comes stateside and keeps hitting, he’ll increase degree of confidence in the hit tool and move up the list

Steve O: Can you compare the way Wander Franco was seen as an IFA and the way Jasson Dominguez is seen now? Would the hype be this out of control on Dominguez no matter where he signed? Seems like the hype on Franco was nonexistent.

Eric A Longenhagen: Wander was seen more than Dominguez. Wander did not look good in workouts closer to when he signed because he already had a deal and was coasting. Dominguez has barely been seen at all.

Ryan: What do you think of Zac Gallen going forward? Can he be a number 2 starter or better?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe an SP2 on a fantasy team, but not a No. 2 starter as I define it on the scale.

Mike Elias: How much should I discount Gonzales’ hot start due to park factors like altitude?

Eric A Longenhagen: His Cape stats are more meaningful than anything he does this spring

Jim Leyland Palmer: If Moose can play a reasonable 2B, could Issac Parades do the same?

Eric A Longenhagen: Moose is a much, much, much better athlete than Paredes. Moose is a husky dude but he’s a good athlete

Rick: Do you think Daulton Varsho makes his debut this year? Do you like his profile as a catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and kinda. He’s taking flyballs in left and center right now. Might move all over.

Kyler: I know you can get into some weird stuff by going down this road but how much do genetics play into player evaluation/projection? Like if someone’s parents played a sport at a high level or how their parents are built. How much do you factor in this information when evaluating younger players?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s an interesting thing to talk about in a player’s blurb if someone’s mom ran track in college or if their dad played point guard at DePaul or whatever. Some of the more hard-wired stuff is interesting and perhaps an area teams will explore, but I agree it’s weird. It’s why I think player data ownership needs to be on the list of stuff the MLBPA discusses during CBA negotiations because some sports really know a lot about their players in ways that are approaching what you describe

Aaron: Back to “ways of identifying players to whom you can apply sound dev concepts.” Is that why the Cardinals have had some success with the Matt Carpenters, Tommy Edmans, and Matt Adamses of the world?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

Pete: In the July 2 rankings column you mention that three players in the 2021/2022 classes are higher than the top of the 2020 class. Are any of them a 50FV today?

Eric A Longenhagen: Celesten

Daro: who are lowest FV rated Milb players to become above avg mlb players?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought perhaps Josh James would but it turns out I was just right about that one and Cistulli needed to chill

Jeff: Ed Howard or Cristian Hernandez among signable amateur HS aged SSs this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: oooh, good one. man, that’s close. I’ll say Hernandez, more body projection. Howard is the better glove, though.

Karen Yost: What do you think Deivi Garcia odds are on breaking camp as the 5th starter if Yankees are without Sevy for a month to start the season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be into that, you just might have to have a long relief type to run in behind him.

Drunk Vince Coleman: This morning I was reminded about that dominating performance from Kumar Rocker against Duke & how his stuff looked better than any college pitcher I’ve seen (although I haven’t seen too many).

Do you think there’s a good chance that he spends less than a year in the minors? Is he going to be the star level prospect that I feel like he will be or am I being clouded by that once performance?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Rocker but the presumptive 1-1 talk is premature. I think Leiter has the better breaking ball and his fastball plays a little better, he’s just not a freaking tank like Kumar is.

Adam: Thoughts on AJ Preller’s strategy of investing heavily in the bullpen at a time when he is on otherwise shaky grounds with regards to his employment?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams who win an unusually high ratio of close games tend to outperform their run differential and I think a bunch of nasty bullpen pieces helps you do that. Tampa has pumped prospect resources into bullpen guys, too.

Duff: Been MIA from your chats for a while. Didn’t know about the book. Sounds like a great summer read for during the season. Definitely adding to my list. Appreciate the answer/info. Best of luck!

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias, amigo

Adam: Gavin Lux or Fernando Tatis Jr long term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tatis

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: At some point in the middle-term future, MLB will expand. Leading up to that, will teams change their farm systems? Will they try to consolidate talent into fewer players to that the losses from an expansion draft are smaller? Teams like SD or TB would seem to have a lot more to lose than top-heavy systems.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I wonder what expansion draft format would be, it’s an interesting exercise to take the most recent format and apply it to the current player landscape to see who you’d end up with.

Rick: Do you think Bohm can make an impact at 3B for the Phillies this year? Can Kingery or Segura play CF full time?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kingery runs well enough to play there, Segura does not. Bohm is maybe passable at 3B. I think we’ll see pieces move around in Philly the same way we do TB, STL, lots of others. Kingery’s versatility will enable everyone to get ABs and make pluggin injury holes easier.

Jabroni: Are you still a baseball fan or is it just a job?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t root for a team anymore, the work has definitely altered my relationship with baseball in a way, but I still love it.

Eric A Longenhagen: couple more, than I’ve gotta split

Guest: What % of the baseball that you watch is MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: In person or on TV? I try to do one series every month in person as a way of reminding myself what I should be looking for. MLB games are constantly on at the house, make up more of the pie after the draft.

Wait, what?: Have you previously heard anything of teams artificially increasing the stock of prospects for trading purposes? I know a report said HOU purposed miscalibrated trackman devices, are there any other ways you knew of?

Eric A Longenhagen: Via promotions. Teams know pro models are influenced by age relative to level.

Kevin: Do you hate Kiley and all that he stands for now?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he was running potential wedding dates past me yesterday.

Mucho: Has Garrett Mitchell made any changes to his swing that would allow more game power? He feels like a potential peak AJ Pollock if he can get to 20 homers

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a very relevant question that I don’t have an answer for just yet because I won’t see Mitchell again until at least that first weekend in March

Eric A Longenhagen: Was gonna do Long Beach/Miss St next weekend but the Ginn news may alter that and instead might hit SoCal for the UCLA/Vandy/USC/TCU tourny

Kevin: Are you (the industry as a whole) making a mistake in continuing to rank catchers so highly. I completely understand the importance of the position, and it seems foolish to not rank them, but it seems guy after guy falls precipitously down your ranks (everyone’s ranks) and becomes a career backup (swihart, d’arnaud, mejia, barnes)

Eric A Longenhagen: The scarcity and rate of bust are certainly opposing forces. It’s why I left Alvarez off, he’s several levels away from the others on the list. I think your assertion is perhaps true, but the bust rate for prospects toward the back of the 100, regardless of position, are already pretty high.

brob: Kohl Franklin already with a plus CH going into his age 20 season. Think he can make a jump and be a guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

James: How has Jeremiah Jackson looked recently? Is he a guy we could see ranked in the top 100 midseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Huge power, all Angels hitters generate wildly varied opinions depending on what swing scouts have seen them using or whether or not they like the current iteration.

Sox Fan: I think you dont love comps, but any comp for Vaughn? Its been a long time since a 1st year first baseman was a consensus top 30 prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve dropped Konerko comps (while he was still in college) because of how surgical his approach is but I’ve been told that’s too light.

James: Do you expect any of the HS arms to go in the top 10-15 this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe one

James: Are you concerned by Emerson Hancock’s rough start to the season?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s just one start, so not yet

Hecubot: Is Jonah Heim going to get any love? A plus defender who starts producing at AA/AAA and his peripherals look strong too.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re right to be on him. Sneaky tools.

Ajb: Are all high school baseball coaches dummies, or just most of them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too broad a brush either way.

Matt: have you gotten any reports on Luisangel Acuna or Maximo Acosta? curious to know how they compare to some of the other young MIs that have been discussed during prospect week (Pauson, Orevlis, Noelvi Marte etc)

Eric A Longenhagen: Have seen both. They’re okay. The other names you mention >> than those two.

Matt: What’s the prognosis for JT Ginn? Is it too early to tell if his draft stock will take a hit?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll leave his FV what it is but move him to the back of that tier and then make a second adjustment after he comes back (stuff still down? He moves down into a lower tier)

Mariner: You said you were watching Sam Carlson – how did he look?

Eric A Longenhagen: Didn’t think it was great, but it’s early.

Mr. Patient: How did Max Meyer look when you saw him? Any other Gophers stand out to you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was up to 100 with some great sliders early, command and slider quality waned later in his start. Relief look, stays in the 40+ tier.

Matt: Would you watch college baseball if it wasn’t part of your job?

Eric A Longenhagen: hell yes

Eric A Longenhagen: Folks, this is my 12 year doing this and I went out of my way to see all the baseball well before it way my job

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Who has the best name in the minors today?

Eric A Longenhagen: High School: https://ps-baseball.com/player-search/deejay-booth/13251/

Eric A Longenhagen: College: https://nevadawolfpack.com/sports/baseball/roster/owen-sharts/4263

Eric A Longenhagen: there are just so many good ones in the minors

Eric A Longenhagen: I love the musicality of this one https://www.fangraphs.com/players/oddanier-mosqueda/sa917882/stats?pos…

Eric A Longenhagen: okay I gotta go, folks

Eric A Longenhagen: thanks for coming this week, see you again next Friday where I’ll perhaps be chatting from somewhere besides Tempe. Until then, hope you’re all well and are slacking at work to watch/listen to baseball in some way.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll leave you with some fresh footage

Eric A Longenhagen: peace