Eric Longenhagen Chat- 2/7/19

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey there, it is I. Today’s chat will be quick and I will need to update The Board if/when the Realmuto trade is official

2:03
Starbucks Nightmare: Is Morgan Cooper alive

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but the Dodgers typically take things very slowly with the injured college pitching they’re constantly drafting.

2:04
John Stamos: Any words on Maximo Castillo in the upcoming Blue Jays list?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: a bunch of 50s, he’s in the Others section

2:04
Cave Dameron: How fast can you throw a baseball right now?

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe I’d touch 60 with a crow hop? With command I’d probably be in the mid-40s.

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not flexible at all, I’m a near 0 degree external rotation guy because I threw too much as a kid and my shoulder is shredded

2:06
Jay: Any guesses as to how many innings Anderson Espinoza throws this year? A Chris Paddack-esque limit make sense?

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s right, always look toward org precedent for stuff like that

2:06
Jose Pujols: Best DSL player you saw this year?

2:07
Eric A Longenhagen: I didn’t see any pro ball in the DR but the best guy who came up from the DSL who I saw in the states was Brayan Rocchio

2:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Which is why during the summer we: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-…

2:08
Roger: Is Sixto Sanchez + Jorge Alfaro an overpay for Realmuto?

2:10
Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s those two and someone we have in the 40 FV tier and no, I don’t think that’s an overpay for maybe the best catcher in baseball.

2:10
Nate: When looking at scouting grades what do they equate to stats wise? Like an 80 power would be 40 bombs? 70 speed 30 steals?

2:13
Eric A Longenhagen: There was a recent post somewhere else that updated these, but this is still close. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scal…

2:14
Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t find the updated post right now, not sure where it was published but it just found the standard deviations for a ton of stats in the big leagues and published those

2:14
Jay: Is Josh Naylor the single-most benefitted prospect if universal DH gets adopted?

2:14
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s probably in the team picture but Franmil is also kind of in his way if it happens

2:15
Bob: How would you rank AZL talent last year by team (combining the teams that have 2 squads)?

2:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not gonna rank all 18 teams but I thought CLE clearly had the best group. Arizona, Texas, Cubs were the next few that came to mind.

2:15
Diosbel Arias: Do you anything about me? Good stats in the NWL, but not a lot of info on me online

2:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I dig you. Scrappy little multi-positional guy with feel to hit, sneaky pop for size. Maybe utility type.

2:16
EL: What’s the ETA for Luciano, Canario, Pomares, Toribio? Shouldn’t hold my breath, eh?

2:16
Eric A Longenhagen: probably 4-5 years, they’re all teens

2:17
Slappy’s Brother: Is is a steep over pay if Bohm, Garcia, or Howard end up as the 3rd piece in the Realmuto trade?

2:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but I don’t have any indication that Heyman’s report that Garcia or Howard are (I don’t know what verb he used, ‘included’?) is true.

2:19
Jay: Historically for prospects who’ve dealt with blister problems, are there any who have had promising stuff permanently derailed? Wondering how worried to be about Gore if it persists.

2:20
Eric A Longenhagen: My anecdotal recollection of big leaguers who deal with it is that it’s a semi-frequent annoyance at worst, not something that dilutes talent.

2:20
Tommyboy: If you could scout one event in the world, what would it be?

2:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Area Codes, though that may change now that Seoulmate is closed

2:21
Blueberry: Where do the Yankees rank in terms of player development staff? I’ve gone to games at multiple affiliates and they always seem to have an incredible amount of coaches

2:21
Eric A Longenhagen: near the top

2:22
Franch Odelay: Thoughts on Apostel. Did he improve his stock after the trade to Texas?

2:23
Eric A Longenhagen: A little, but I don’t think he improved his stock as much as he was just more widely seen or recognized by public outlets. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-25-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

2:24
Fat Matt: Huge fan of all the current chats, but Craig should get one too. I loved his input during the playoff chats.

2:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Craig’s better half just had a baby so maybe once he gets settled that’ll be a thing again, but I don’t know.

2:24
gary mack: My pick is due for my dynasty league – I have the choice between India, Larnach, or Kristian Robinson – who do you take?

2:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Reminder if you have questions like this, they’ve probably already been answered by the way we’ve ranked players on the board

2:25
Frank: When will Cole Winn pitch? Do you have a comp for him if he reaches his ceiling?

2:26
Eric A Longenhagen: He threw during instructs. No comp, but chance for 3 plus pitches and above command

2:26
Bob: Obviously raw power and max exit velo are pretty closely tied, but can you think of any prospects for whom there’s a meaningful disparity?

2:27
Eric A Longenhagen: There are probably players who crush BP but don’t square anything up in games and have lower max exits than they do batted ball distance against soft-tossed BP, but I can’t think of any examples

2:27
Zach: Who are some of your favorite RP prospects that you see as future closers/high leverage set up guys?

2:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Anyone with a 45 FV or better who has significant relief risk. Albert Abreu, Darwinzon Hernandez come to mind first

2:29
Adam: If he focuses strictly as a position player, can Spencer Jones project to play at a position other than 1B to boost his value?

2:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not. He throws left-handed so he’s limited to the outfield and I don’t thikn he runs well-enough to play CF, so I’d just leave him at 1B

2:31
Chris: I keep reading Vlad will move off of 3b. Are there any prospects you were sure would move off a position and were really wrong in hindsight?

2:33
Eric A Longenhagen: In college I thought Conforto would be 1B-only. Some of the bigger shortstops I thought would move, but then batted ball data enabled them to stay there and be passable.

2:33
jh00k: how would compare/contrast last years top catcher drafted Joey Bart with this years likely top catcher drafted Adley Rutschman?

2:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Similar defenders, Adley has a been body and better feel to hit. We 50 FV’d Bart and currently have a 55 on Rutsch.

2:35
PatEdMartin: What kind of impact could the unrest/upheaval in Venezuela have on MLB scouting down there? Is it scaring orgs from even scouting down there?

2:35
Eric A Longenhagen: It has already had a significant impact on how and where those kids are scouted, and few teams still have open, operational facilities there

2:36
PD: Victor Robles‘ exit velocity. Is this a real issue or just small sample size?

2:37
Eric A Longenhagen: It is below average and has been in the minors, too. But he does literally everything else and he makes quality contact that I think lets him get to power even if he’s not hitting 450ft bombs. Wall scrapers still count as homers.

2:37
Metta World Peace: With the Lexington duo of Melendez/Rivero working their way through the system is it only a matter of time till they deal Sal Perez? He’s no Realmuto, but he’s gotta bring back a decent haul right?

2:38
Eric A Longenhagen: I think KC’s emotional connection with Perez will significantly alter how/when/if they decide to ever move him.

2:39
Will: I know he’s not a prospect anymore, but what grade would you hang on Franchy Cordero now?

2:41
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d still 45+ him. He has huge upside but I doubt he puts it together consistently. I guess I’d ask what FV you’d hang on Michael A Taylor or someone like that?

2:42
tommyboy: Related: Is it still fair to refer to Alfaro as “The Legend”?

2:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes because that moniker was only partly generated by his talent

2:42
DR: Any chance Canario starts out with Augusta? His swing seems pretty aggressive

2:43
Eric A Longenhagen: I agree with you and hope they’ve learned from the Lu Fox, Heliot Ramos struggles and go a little slower

2:44
Mr. Fister: I haven’t been able to find much info on upcoming J2 Jasson Dominguez, other than a speculative $5 mil bonus with the Yankees. Do you have enough info on him to elaborate about his tools, age, etc? Thanks!

2:44
Eric A Longenhagen: We’re releasing July 2 rankings next week and he’s at the top. Compact frame but he’s sculpted like a god, has power, speed.

2:45
Walter Sobchak: Reports of Kevin Alcantara remind me a lot of reports about Kristian Robinson last year. Obviously both are far from finished products, but how would you compare their physicality?

2:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Kristian was thicker at the same age, Alcantara has abetter chance to stay in CF

2:46
Johnnie Walker: Do you expect more minor leaguers to begin developing as two way players this year? Are guys like Jake Cronenworth and Matt Vierling who were solid college arms potential guys to fit that mold?

2:47
Eric A Longenhagen: I think teams should have low-stakes pilot programs for fringe prospects so they have some idea of how they’d go about developing two way guys if they ever wanted to, and Cronenworth is a pretty good example. Vierling maybe you wait until you’re sure the bat alone won’t get him there.

2:48
Fangraphs Reader: Thoughts on the Astros’ decision to fill pitching/hitting coaching positions entirely with internal candidates over the past 2 years?

2:49
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d do whatever it takes to retain the things I knew about pitching that other orgs do not, and if that means promoting from within to prevent those promoted from leaving for other jobs, that seems fine to me.

2:49
Jake: Indians protected RHP Jean Carlos Mejia from the Rule 5, although he barely pitched above A-Ball. Is he a legit prospect?

2:50
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Plus breaking ball command, delivery disorients hitters

2:51
Copernicus: Have there been any studies on the long term performance of players using the Driveline method? Are all of the velo spikes sustainable?

2:52
Eric A Longenhagen: There hasn’t been a combination of widespread use/enough time to evaluate long term effects on a large enough population to know for sure

2:53
Los Pads: Can only keep one longterm, who do you take: Tirso Ornelas or Jeisson Rosario

2:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Tirso

2:53
Pedro: Eric,in the long run:Bieber,F.Peralta,Lucchesi,D.Rodriguez,Barria…???

2:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Bieber

2:54
Walter Sobchak: Has your opinion of Nick Madrigal moved since the last update? At the time, he had a 60 FV, and Brujan was recently given a 55, with the most important difference being the hit tool. Does he have better hitting traits, or are you guys just more confident based on a longer track record?

2:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Opinion hasn’t moved, he hasn’t played aside from instructs, where he looked tired and had issues consistent with what every hitter who has suffered a broken wrist exhibits for a while after the injury.

2:56
GSon: The Indians have a small but talented group of OF’ers they’ve acquire in trade during the past year plus. They include Daniel Johnson, Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, and Oscar Mercado. Who do you think has the best chance to make a difference with the Indians in 2019?

2:56
Eric A Longenhagen: Bauers

2:57
FT2: Your personal favorite prospect in the Padres system?

2:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Favorite? Omar Fernandez

2:59
Randy Arias: If Wander Franco appeared as a walk on to an elite College Program as an unknown, how many minutes would it take for coaches to throw all their plans out the window?

2:59
Eric A Longenhagen: One round of BP

3:00
Anthony: Just out of curiosity on the process, how many team lists are you typically juggling at once? Is it full attention on each org as they come up, or are you making Angels and Astros calls as you’re writing the Blue Jays list?

3:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Lol we’re literally doing exactly that while also doing the 100, draft and July 2 stuff, also JUCO calls because they’re playing.

3:02
Sam: You guys have been the high man on Yankees prospects like Jonathan Holder, and then Miguel Andujar last year, and it’s paid off. Who’s the next Yankees prospect you guys are higher on here, than other publications? Deivi Garcia/Luis Gil?

3:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t peep other lists so I have no idea, but I’m guessing Kevin Alcantara

3:04
Rick C: From Passan: Philadelphia and Miami are in agreement on a trade that would send All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies for catcher Jorge Alfaro, pitching prospects Sixto Sanchez and Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot, league sources

3:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I clearly need to go. Thanks for all of your questions and have a great rest of your weekl

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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