Eric Longenhagen Chat- 3/20/2020

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, folks. Lots of smoke to talk about today…

The West is Wild: If the draft were to get canceled, how much of the reasoning would you put on: a) lost revenues for team and, b) the fact that scouts have no one to, uh, scout right now?

Scott: If MLB cancels the 2020 draft but plays a partial 2020 season (say, e.g., 81 games), how would the 2021 draft order be determined. Perhaps use teams’ combined records from 2019 and 2020?

The West is Wild: If the draft were to get canceled, what happens with those prospects? Does a draft happen in October/November? Do they get rolled into the 2021 draft, and if so, does baseball enlarge bonus pools? Is this the precursor to abolishing the draft altogether?

Garland: If the 2020 MLB season is canceled, but they still hold the 2020 MLB draft…how do they determine the draft order for the 2021 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are lots of questions regarding 2020 draft cancellation in the queue. I’ll start by saying Idon’t think it’l happen, that it creates too many logistial problems for the following year to be worth MLB cramming two draft classes into one year so they can play one year’s worth of bonuses for two years of talent. I think cancelling the draft is one of many possible things the league has indeed discussed and that it was floated to see how everyone would respond, including the MLBPA, just in case it presents MLB with the most cost-effective course of action.

Eric A Longenhagen: In short, the Commish and his office are taking a calculated approach to this, one that looks bad frlom a PR standpoint when you compare it to other sports but may save MLB owners money if enacted, and that would be the only reason it’s enacted. I’d stop worrying about possible draft cancellation until it actually happens.

Stephen Abootman: How is isolation affecting your coffee consumption guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: No change

Billy: Will a shorter season make relievers more value? Thinking Double headers, truncated schedule, and less preseason prep time will affect starting pitching

Eric A Longenhagen: Might starters be able to go every fourth day instead of every fifth now that the schedule allows them to do that without throwing a metric ton of innings over the whole season? There are lots of questions like this that I believe teams will consider once we have a start date for the season but until we know how long the season is and if there’s a format change or not, they’re all unanswerable.

Enlightening Round: Is there some Springer in Hunter Bishop‘s outlook?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s kinda what you’re hoping for. TOoled up college OF with strikeout issues finally puts things together and the power plays in games. Bish is less likely to play CF, tho.

Dave: If this season isn’t played, how much does that hurt the development/future some of the older prospects in their respective classes? Brett Baty and Peyton Burdick come to mind.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, those guys get a year older without having the oportunity to be pushed an extra level during the year to catch up to what is ‘normal’ for their age. Everyone’s pro models get screwed with, too. Guys with 40-man timelines that were already compressed now….i don’t know what’ll happen to that stuff. But if you’re a 21/22yo relief prospect who, say, lost a year or two to surgery and this winter is your 40-man/rule 5 offseason, and you were hoping to pitch up through Hi- or Double-A and get added or popped in rule 5, this sucks for you.

GSon: ….and now…

Eric A Longenhagen: ….the end is near….and so I face…(Bill Hicks version)

ltw0303: Do you think the player, Taylor Walls , outweighs the sum of his parts ? I see his stats his individual tools and it’s ok but then see him play and it’s like wow

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. He’s stuffed good on the Rays list and on my Picks to CLick.

GSon: Good afternoon Eric.. Nice to be talking prospects.. The Indians have pick # 23.. do you think Casey Martin, SS U of Arkansas (soooooooooooooooooeeeeeeeeey pig !) may still be around? Can you fill in the 411 on why the Tribe should grab this guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: High-risk hit tool guys aren’t Cleveland’s style.

dave: How long until we see Drew Rasmussen in the majors? And when we do does he have a shot of being in the rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Relief-only for me but, if they need him this year, he might be up. Was 97-99 when I saw him in the spring.

Sotofor2020: How often does someone ask you a question about a player and you have to go and pull up your notes on them? It’s amazing how you are seemingly able to give detailed scouting reports about 1000s of players on command.

Eric A Longenhagen: I am constantly looking for my keys, wallet, and forget important dates and to pay bills, etc. I don’t know why baseball sort of stuff sticks and other things do not. I don’t mind it (mostly) but others (like my ex wife) get frustrated.

Theo: What’s been going on with Triston McKenzie? He hasnt had any arm surgeries and was a high end guy but has missed so much time

Eric A Longenhagen: missed all last year with a back issue. Saw him at the Vandy opening series (he was committed there) and he was moving around fine but no idea what his throwing schedule is/was like.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The URL for your Rays list mentions 54 prospects, but you actually have 55 reports. Who was the last-minute add?

Eric A Longenhagen: I forgot they traded for Logan Driscoll (who was a 35= pre-draft last year, then all last summer while with SD)

Eric A Longenhagen: 35+*

Jacob: I imagine there will be no new draft board content for a while? Stay safe out there, by the way.

Eric A Longenhagen: I

Eric A Longenhagen: whoops

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll update it hopefully next week. Once things shut down I fixated on what lists I have left and working on creating a visual appendix for the book, the latter of which I’m accelerating because the publisher sent copies to people who preordered earlier than Kiley and I expected them to.

Ross: What do you think about Hans Crouse‘s SP outlook going forward? Was 2019 an injury throw away year and he will bounce back or is he trending more toward a relief arm now?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a RP for me. Good one, though.

alex: Who is your flavor-of-the-week prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess Vidal Brujan. I cut up and posted fresh video of him yesterday if you wanna see 7 minutes of an elite athlete taking good at-bats and big hacks for such a little guy.

Ben: I want to get into the baseball operations business. As a high school senior, what are the best steps to doing so?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just poke around high school, college and minor league parks you can drive to. Chat, listen and learn. Check out internships (paid, hopefully) once you’re in college. Don’t go to school for Sports Mgmt, go for something interdisciplinary (like neuroscience or something data-related)

Will: What prompted Bobby Miller’s rise up the BOARD after the cancellation of games? Was he that impressive in his four starts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah. 94-97 with above slider and change, delivery is just weird bu not unlike Ryan Jensen‘s last year

Breakouts: Who are you top three breakout candidates to watch once the season finally kicks off?

Breakouts: Duuuuuudde….breakout candidates, shed some light

Breakouts: Come on Eric, BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

Eric A Longenhagen: Just go to my Picks to Click, guy.

The West is Wild: Have seen Mick Abel mocked in the late teens. What’s driving his stock down? Isn’t he kind of the prototypical advanced HS arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: any mock you see right now is clickbait, not analysis

Johnny: Is it Shane Baz’s walk rate and stuff that makes you believe a move to the pen is likely? I feel like a team would try to hold off on that move as much as possible given his age and ability.

Eric A Longenhagen: More that the fastball needs to big velo to really play and the most likely way the happens is in the bullpen

Theo: How can we take down the NCAA? What’s the overlap on sports teams owners and NCAA figureheads?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have great distaste for the NCAA, too, but what makes you think I have a plan intricate enough to ‘take it down’ that is also concise enough to answer in a chat?

SotoforMayor: Does the expected switch to robot umps make your job grading Catchers different? Do you foresee catcher becoming a much more bat-first position in the future? Does that change the grades you put on any catchers right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, there’s some Robo-ump anticipation baked into the work already. I don’t know how it’ll impact certain pitchers (guys with deeper curveballs, I think, will benefit) and hitters, but I have thought about a world without framing….

Eric A Longenhagen: before we could quantify framing the league average wRC+ at catcher was 95, and I think that’s about where we’ll end up once it becomes obsolete. So I’m looking at catchers through tht offensive lens now.

Brian: Can you share the link to the Vidal Brujan video you posted?

Eric A Longenhagen:

Uncle Spike: What is your definition of ‘hit tool?’

Eric A Longenhagen: I take a reductionist approach and break it into components (written about at length in the book), which I define as Pitch Selection, Bat Control (or plate coverage) and quality of contact (which is partially driven by strength/power).

Jason N: Wander Franco that good? For context, how would you stack rank these guys if they were all entering there Age-22 seasons and contracts were exactly the same: Franco, Tatis Jr, Vlad Jr, Acuna Jr, Soto

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s exactly the question I asked myself before 80’ing Franco and it’s why I 80’d him. Defensive profile >Acuna/Soto/Vlad by a huge margin, hit tool >Tatis

Matt Klentak: Would the Padres been better off keeping Austin Allen instead of Profar? Dozier & Garcia could handle 2B & Allen could help their major league catching situation which doesnt look promising offensively

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Pro is better than Garcia and Dozier at this point, and they had a catching logjam with Allen, Mejia, Torrens, Hedges with Campy on the way. I thought it made sense.

DJ Tanner: Do you play OOTP? If so, any prospects you know will over achieve in their AI. Just downloaded the game to satisfy my baseball fix.

Eric A Longenhagen: I play Diamond Mind (which I might stream?)

omar: Why is Brady Singer ranked so differently among the different lists. A sturdy arm, with good minor league numbers, plus command and secondaries, should be a top 100 prospect, no? Interested to hear your thoughts and what you see as his ceiling

Eric A Longenhagen: I have him as a 4/5 and assume other pubs have him as a no. 4, not a huge diff.

Padres458: Is that implying Tatis has abetter hit tool then Acuna/Soto/vlad?

Eric A Longenhagen: no

Guest: Scouting report (at his best) on new FG contributor Jon Perrin ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him at Oklahoma State and then again while he was with MIL. Best I saw him was 2017 (i think?) Fall League. Velo was up above college range (90-94, up from 88-92) and he was dotting his slider. Had four pitches, all were 45/50ish, above command. Upper-level depth guy. Had a good pro career for how late he was drafted.

27th man: Should Carter Stewart have just signed with the Braves for less money?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, that relationship deteriorated pretty quickly frlom what I’ve heard. Both sides were better off for that breakup, though I do think Stewart was treated poorly by what I think was a overly cold, strategic thinking by Atlanta.

#1 Flan: Hey Eric–can you recommend a good scorecard for scoring MLB games?

Eric A Longenhagen: I cannot but I bet Chat can help. Anyone wanna dump some suggestions in quickly?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll drop suggestions in as they arise

Guest: Who has best hit tool in MLB right now? Where would Wander rank among MLB hit tools?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you can take your pick from Mookie, Brantley, Ketel Marte and maybe Luis Arraez and Astudillo types who make contact at elite rates but have less pop?

Eric A Longenhagen: I put a 6 hit on Wander right now, so he’s in that bucket of big leaguers.

Guest: Any MLBers with 8 field 8 throw right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simmons, Realmuto…..that might be it

Aloha Friday: Can’t decide on which one to cut or package 2 to trade away – K-Rob, Luciano, Vaughn. If I trade 2, I would try to get Noelvi Marte to replace one. Since its an OPS league Vaughn’s value increases.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, Kristian came to camp like 20 pounds lighter than last year. I think that’s better for his long term ability to maybe stay in CF but he might see a dip in power production in the short term, which may impact his value as a prospect. I guess I’d be more inclined to trade him. I’d def not just cut one for no value.

John: Matt Chapman?

Eric A Longenhagen: considered, is that really an 8 arm tho?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s my hour. Hey, folks, I think we’re gonna be relatively isolated for a couple months here so let’s take good care of ourselves during this time and try to ride out this global effing pandemic as best we can. We’re all riding this giant rock together, let’s try to pull in the same direction. Talk to you all next week. Be well, chat.