Eric Longenhagen Chat – 3/22/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy, let’s chat

GPT: Have you had the opportunity to see Giants spring training yet, any standouts if so?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes was there yesterday, actually. Sean Hjelle looks pretty good, certainly the fastball does. 92-94 with tough angle and some life. Gregory Santos was 93-95 yesterday, some plus sliders. Marco Luciano looks incredible but we knew that already.

David: More total future value: The three first-rounders the Padres signed in 2016 (Quantrill, Potts, Lauer), or the three future first-rounders (Rolison, Bishop, Bleday) they called but didn’t sign on day three?

Eric A Longenhagen: the latter group

Edgar: Is late 2020 a feasible debut for Andrew Vaughn? Despite height, can he be a 25 HR guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s perhaps feasible from a talent standpoint but whichever team drafts him won’t be incentivized to move him that quickly. He can be a 25 HR guy, sure. Jose Ramirez is 5-foot-9.

Eugene: Re: pitch framing. Doesn’t it seem likely that pitchers are aware which catchers are good at framing, and adjust their strike zone accordingly? If Bumgarner is throwing just outside the zone, knowing that Posey can frame it for a strike, it doesn’t seem like all the WAR credit should be going to the catcher at the pitcher’s expense. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s fair to question how much each half of the battery contributes to the stolen strike.

Daniel: Do you see Tyler Phillips or Brock Burke getting an FV boost when the Rangers list is published?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s done, the site was just about the PPRs and extensions this week. They’re each 40+ FVs

Jim: When a player drops in a grade from year-to-year, is it generally due to the prospect not living up to development expectations or simply revising your grades based on more information?

Eric A Longenhagen: the latter

Joey: Any books/articles/podcasts/stuff like that that helped you when learning how to scout?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dollar Sign on the Muscle is a good book about scouting but I don’t know if I’d say it helped me to scout. Parks’ essays in Extra Innings 2 are good, Ted Williams‘ book on hitting is pretty good and especially so for visual learners.

SSS: Will draft scouts ever stear the FO into a player they think best fits the team’s development strengths, even if they may not be the “BPA”?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts may be guided toward looking for certain types of players but the FO is responsible for being the synapse between scouting and PD, not the scout.

Boone: Is the CBA likely to change in any meaningful way over the next few years that should give guys like Eloy Jimenez pause before signing their extensions?

Eric A Longenhagen: it might, but I have no idea how.

Michael R: Alec Bohm: Lakewood or Clearwater?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lakewood until he performs for a bit, Clearwater later in the year

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s my opinion, not what I know to be happening

Matthew: Who goes first: Seth Johnson or Graeme stinson?

Eric A Longenhagen: if the draft were today, how can you feel good about taking Stinson? Velo drop is so concerning

Josh Nelson: Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .577/.651/1.308 this prep season. I know there was concern about his hit tool, but has his Summer performance with Team USA and his torrid Spring change your mind a bit about that skill?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s facing lousy HS pitching, his numbers this spring are pretty meaningless

Lark: I know that almost every team drafts their best available player, but at what point does that calculation shift? For instance, the Angels have a bunch of center fielders throughout their system (and trout for the next decade). At what point do center fielders stop being as valuable since you can’t start nine of them? Is this even a consideration?

Eric A Longenhagen: Day 3 you fill out your rookie league rosters

MeDeKe: I apologize for a possibly unpopular question, but when will the team prospect reviews resume, and which division is next? Thanks to you and Kiley for all that you do!

Eric A Longenhagen: Rangers publish Monday, AL Central is next, then NL West and I’m done

Lilith: Have you heard anything about players that the Reds are focusing on for the draft? If not, when does that kind of information start coming in?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not just yet

Rox Guy: So. Colton Welker. Murdered everything in sight this Spring, but is now permanently blocked at 3B. Better idea to move him to 1B (where he loses a bunch of value) or market him as a premier trade asset?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he and Nevin are both 1B and yeah, it makes sense to move one if a deal presents itself

Connor: What is Zack Granite‘s realistic projection/ceiling

Eric A Longenhagen: bench OF

resumeman: This may not be your beat, but…

I see that FG had the DFS SaberSim productions posted for the Japan games. But the page didn’t have the “export data” link that it used to (and every other projection and leader page has) in order to d/l a CSV file. Is that working as intended? Or will it be back to looking like the other pages when the “real” season starts?

Eric A Longenhagen: you’re right, it’s not, but I’ll ship this to someone who can help

Josh: Do you see Alek Thomas being a top 50 prospect by mid-season?

Eric A Longenhagen: uh, no

Travis : Scouting report on Alek Thomas? Soon to be Top-100 prospect?

Jeremy : Upside of Alek Thomas? Think he starts season in Low A?

Eric A Longenhagen: Chances those are all the same person?

NoBunts: Heard the White Sox are keying on College bats, even if Adley and Vaughn are gone. Is there a semi-hard rule against High Schoolers from that FO?

NoBunts: Hearing very positive things about Witt Jr so far. You hearing the same? What about Abrams?

Eric A Longenhagen: you seem sourced up.

Lilith: There’s a report that Santillan has added a slower breaking pitch that works in the low 80’s and that he’s going to it frequently. Does that change anything in regards to how you view him, as up to this point, pretty much everything he has thrown has been hard?

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose it makes me feel a little more confident that he can start. An extra look for hitters gives him a better shot of navigating the lineup several times

Ian: When healthy, could Kyle Funkhouser pitch like a No. 3, or is he more of a back-end guy even when healthy?

Eric A Longenhagen: More like a #4 when everything looks good

Will: Could Jordan Sheffield be major league ready by 2020 if he’s purely relief?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

Lilith: Just curious, but do you watch any other sport in a similarly analytic way to how you watch baseball? If not, does it change the way you’re able to enjoy said sport?

Eric A Longenhagen: My other sports viewership has tanked because I can’t watch them enough to have what I deem a satisfactory level of knowledge anymore. I need to wrap my arms around the whole thing or not at all. I watched a lot of MTG for a while and now have waned in that, as well. I still love football and basketball, but I’ve seen 0 minutes of tourney so far when my friends and I used to binge the whole thing. Same with the Combine.

RP: Did you have an opinion of Jake Noll prior to this spring, and if so, has it actually changed or do you believe his spring is probably noise?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s pop and I have a soft spot for FGCU guys because my uncle taught there for a while, but I have Noll as a ceiling bench bat.

Hurtado: If he had a place to play in the majors, would Keston Hiura be worth a similar amount in extension money as Brandon Lowe?

Eric A Longenhagen: >

Nathan: For younger guys in Double-A (like presumably Dylan Carlson this year) is there much you can read into their numbers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, just look at them in context

Manly: What are your expectations for Brandon Lowe this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2 to 3 WAR

RR Steverson: When might you guys be able to put together another podcast?

Eric A Longenhagen: we record as soon as i wrap with y’all

Nathan: Did any Tigers prospects impress you this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not technically a prospect but where the hell did Jose Cicnero come from?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jose Cisnero, pardon

Phillie Phanatic: who has the best shot at an eventual 70+ FV between Julio Rodriguez, George Valera, Jordyn Adams, Marco Luciano

Eric A Longenhagen: Luciano, gotta stay at SS

Wire Fan: If Brendan McKay was a position player only prospect, what would his FV be? If he was a pitcher only?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’d probably 45+ the bat, 55 him as a pitcher

Buff: I’ve been reading positive things about Nico Hoerner. Have you seen anything that would move his stock up?

Eric A Longenhagen: not more than we already have based on the changes he made last year, which were evident in the fall.

Jarred: Does Drake Fellows have much of a chance to go in the top five rounds? He just dominated Florida.

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked horrible week 1 here in AZ but he’d still show you a plus change and breaker, so sure top 5 rounds is reasonable

Andy Benes: How comparable are Rece Hinds and Brett Baty to Nolan Gorman at this time last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hinds had performance issues over the summer which Gorman did not and he hits right-handed. Baty is much older. So I’d have Gorman over both but I think you’re right to line that group up, apples to apples.

Pickins: Daryl Morey supposedly banned intraracial comparisons — likening European players to Europeans, black players to black players — because everyone was only getting comped with people they looked like. Do you think there’s a similar instinct among baseball scouts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Typically, yes. I’m mindful of it in my writing, even though we typically only do body comps and not full on profile comps. I actually try to do cross-sport body comps, especially if you can comp someone to a basketball player because it’s easier to get a read on bball players frames just because of the system of dress in the sport.

The Darkness: Has Kyle Lewis raised his stock at all this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: we shaded him up on the M’s list, yeah

Lunch Angle: Last week Robles hit a homer clear out of Century Link Park–over the fence, the berm, the concourse. Is there more raw power in his bat than we thought?

Eric A Longenhagen: No but I think people underestimate his feel for quality contact and that he’ll hit for some power even though the exits aren’t spectacular because of it

Hello: Thoughts on Zion Williamson?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know what to do with him. Seems sorta one dimensional, but it’s an elite dimension. Can’t decide if the size is a positive or a negative and also can’t think of anyone ever built like that who had that kind of vertical explosion. Like, he’s built like Zach Randolph but plays like Stromile Swift with a better motor. What do you do with that?

JK: Are there underlying improvements in Cristian Pache‘s game since last year (conditioning, approach, etc.) or should we chalk up the hot spring at the plate to SSS and questionable competition?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously we think he’s very talented but I’d be careful to buy into the ST stats for the reasons you outline.

Josh: Who is the most interesting Vandy pitching prospect (other than Kumar Rocker)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hugh Fisher

Oliver: Looking forward to reading your updated take on Taylor Hearn next Monday. SP or RP, and are you bullish on his ability to contribute in 2019?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’s a SP, yeah I think we see him in Sept

Logan: Is Aaron Judge the 99% outcome for Hunter Bishop?

Eric A Longenhagen: More George Springery maybe?

Guest: Carrillo on the Dodgers…this years Brusdar Gratoral?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, but he’s good

Slippery Pete: Jesus Luzardo: on a scale of 1-10, how sad should I be?

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s a 1 to 10 scale?

DR: any guys in AZ who may be assigned more aggressively than originally thought?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. Nick Pratto has been playing up a level above his draft group but I still think he starts in Wilmington.

Eric A Longenhagen: trying to think of others who have been pushed into more advanced groups so far…

Eric A Longenhagen: Like Chad McClanahan has been doing stuff with the AAA group but I don’t know if anyone cares about that in the chat

Hinkie: Eric … any Johnny Almaraz sightings on the scouting trail?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, those first couple weeks here in AZ but not since then.

Jeremy: I’m currently a grad student at the University of Michigan. Anybody (UM or conference opponents) I should try to watch this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can use the search function on the board to query for college team names and find what you seek: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Logan: Can Bryson Stott be a true impact offensive player? Or more a well-rounded league-average bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: more likely the latter but, if he stays at SS, that’s a big deal

james: Any chance Patrick Sandoval can replicate his success from last season and break into the angels rotation at some point in 2019?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not this year just because too many other names are ahead of him

Monsignor Martinez: Any thoughts on Tyler Freeman? Hit for a great average last year, and is only 19 years old.

Eric A Longenhagen: My views are fairly tepid.

Ominousarosa: Is Anderson Severino prospect to watch, or too erratic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lefties who throw that hard should be monitored.

Walter Sobchak: Does Jazz Chisholm tank so highly because you think he can adjust his approach to cut down on his K’s, or because the power and defense will be good enough that the K’s don’t really matter?

Eric A Longenhagen: It could be either, which is why I’m so sky high. Either could happen. Look at Trevor Story.

Justin: More likely to reach 60 FV: Ronny Mauricio or Kristian Robinson?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mauricio, better shot to stay up the middle than Kristian

Hinkie: Your thoughts on Hunter Bishop’s start. How high can he go this June? Also … What’s the word on Brandon McIlwain? Where does he go in the draft? Finally, will Justin Hooper pitch at all before June?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bish could go top 15-20, I won’t check in on Mc until Cal comes back here and I’ve lost track of Hooper entirely.

Charles: If you could combine the Bishop brothers, how would you rate their FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you combien the best parts of each of them you’d have a 70 runner who plays a good CF with 70 power and like a 5 bat. That’s what like, Bellinger?

RR Steverson: Do you read Kiley’s chats?

Eric A Longenhagen: no

Eric A Longenhagen: i read no chats

Eric A Longenhagen: from here or elsewhere

Joe Joe: Have you heard anything about the consistency of Bukauskas’s change-up this spring? Any time someone from Astros talks about him, they talk about how great it has been this spring, though I take that with a grain of salt.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s really good, it was great in the fall, I 6’d it: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa829263&position=P

Oliver: Rookie pitchers you think would excel in a closer or high-leverage role? Would you be disappointed to see Alex Reyes or Josh James wind up there for fear immediate success might derail their long-term starter potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: The answer to your first Q is at the bottom of this post: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2…

Eric A Longenhagen: On high-profile guys ending up in the ‘pen: I wouldn’t say I’d be disappointed, I get HOU and STL are competitive clubs and it might be best for them to throw guys like that in the ‘pen for various reasons.

JB: A couple of days ago I heard a Rodney Rogers comp for Zion. Zion is probably better but it’s the best one I’ve heard so far.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah but just comping the body, I get it. Give Glen Davis Nate Robinson’s athleticism and it’s Zion, he’s truly one of a kind

Duchess: Does Adley just look a little like Posey or does he LOOK a little like Posey?

Eric A Longenhagen: He kinda looks like him in the face, yeah.

MeDeKe: Giants dealt for Connor Joe (CI, Reds) last night. Think he makes the opening 25 for SFO?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, I do

Duchess: Is there a path to MLB for Arroyo in TB or is he basically passed by all the MI talent there

Eric A Longenhagen: hmm, yeah I guess it might be the latter.

Eric A Longenhagen: There might be an expiring deal or someone TB becomes motivated to move (Robertson?) that Arroyo fills in behind, but yeah.

Tony: More likely to be a #2 or #3 level starter: Joe Palumbo or Brock Burke?

Eric A Longenhagen: Palumbo’s secondaries are better so I’ll say him

Justin: If you had to choose between covering pro prospects or covering draft prospects and Kiley had to do the other, who would pick which one?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley would pick the draft and I’d quit because I’d be furious that I wouldn’t be doing all of it

Mark: Thoughts on Kikuchi’s start yesterday?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too few splits, he needed another look late in the start and didn’t have one.

Doug: any word on how Espinoza and Gore have looked so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gore has been a lot of 92-95 t97, Espinoza has been 93-96 but the other stuff is spotty

Mike G: Will player pages eventually say when they are set to reach FA? If someone is in arb it just says their current year’s contract

Eric A Longenhagen: we might could swing that, yeah

Smith > Vogelbach?: Have you ever had a player’s spring training significantly affect your view of them (positively or negatively)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, if a guy’s velo is very different or if a swing change has been made. Some types of assessment are meaningful this time of year, but using a 40 PA sample of data is not

Alek Thomas: Are there any Astudillo’s currently in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you mean literal Astudillos, then yes Wilfred is in the Mets system and he’s Willians’ brother. If you mean skillset wise? Yohel Pozo is kinds close.

Walter Sobchak: How often does feel to hit improve?

Eric A Longenhagen: scarcely, but it happens. (points to George Springer again)

Trent: So, players like Vlad and Eloy are easy choices for ROY, but which prospect will have the biggest impact on the *playoff* race? Could it be some relatively unheralded–say a Darwinzon Hernandez type who ends up pitching high-leverage innings for a contender down the stretch?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes and I think you pulled one heck of a name who might do something like that

Not Wander Franco: What are some realistic predictions for Michael Brantley this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s going to rake. ASG, batting title.

Tommy Hunter Bishop: Why are Greg and Spencer Jones dropping?

Eric A Longenhagen: Greg isn’t hitting and hasn’t improved as a SS, Spencer has a fractured elbowand done for 2019, he was recently on a local TV station doing an interview in Vandy gear

Jake: I have watched a few starts dating back to last April through his last ST start. Luis Patino’s windup has gone from very subtle w/a major fall off towards first base to an almost Dontrelle Willis high leg kick and a power drive towards home. Is that a red flag to you when evaluating prospects in that the windup is constantly changing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, he’s just copycatting Gore. It’s amazing that he can do whatever and still repeat, it’s an indicator of athleticism that he can do that

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks for coming this week, everyone. Hope your Friday passes quickly and you have a great weekend. See you next week