Eric Longenhagen Chat: 4/16/21

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, everyone. Probably gonna hold things tight to an hour so I can split for some minor league ST action. Also, I get vaccine dose #2 today, so I’m two weeks away from making some very rash decisions. Look forward to seeing you out there.

Philip: Target date for the Padres list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nationals early next week, then I start with the Northwest Valley Teams (SD, KC, TEX, SEA), which are the clubs I’ve been sitting on during the co-op and early minor league ST here in AZ. I’d guess the Mariners or Padres are first out of the gate since I expect there will be less movement there

Mike: Hey Eric – how concerning is Rocker’s decreased velo? It’s been a handful of starts now. If the velo just doesn’t come back (at least not before the draft), what’s his outlook?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d bet he still goes somewhere in the top 10 if it doesn’t rebound. Rocker in the low-90s is still better than most of the other first round college arms. Maybe he’d slide past Madden but that feels like it. It’s not like Hoglund has a huge arm or anything.

Matt: When is your first scheduled mock draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not until mid-May. Teams are still sifting through stuff, varsity ball is barely underway in some locations, teams are still trying to mine college bats…. lots still going on before a mock is anything but clickbait.

G: Is the 2022 draft combo of Elijah Green and Dylan Lesko the best HS hitter/pitcher combo in recent history?

Eric A Longenhagen: Here are the 2022 rankings for those interested…2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Eric A Longenhagen: Green probably needs an FV bump into the Top 100 area. Uhhh, I think Lesko is roughly comparable to a typical top-of-the-class prep arm, Green is definitely special…yeah even Witt, royce lewis…Green feels better than those guys at the same stage.

The Real Death Valley: Keith Law mentioned Will Taylor in his recent top 50 – what do you have on him and where do you think he currently fits from a baseball perspective?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, the other Clemson dual sport commit. Incredible body, built like you’d expect a D1 wrestler to look. Had a really good East Coast Pro, swing isn’t great but he gets the barrel there, tracks pitches well, runs well…just a good baseball prospect. Whether he goes that high depends on him getting paid to eschew school.

Matt: Corbin Burnes has added some velo early on this year, obviously he needs a longer track record but do you think he can be a top 10 starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, top 10 is really high. Yeah, probably towards the back of the 10. Guys like him and Snell and Glasnow, dudes who have had issues throwing strikes in the past, they can bubble up into that area at times but I don’t think we’re talking about a Scherzer/Kershaw/Cole level dude there.

Mike: When do you think there will start to be buzz on what teams like what players, etc? Seems like in previous years April was the time when there would start to be a little bit of buzz, but with  the draft pushed back, maybe that’s different this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you nailed it, and the lack of a true underclass year and Cape Cod, etc. means everyone’s a little later to feel comfortable with the college crop, too.

Matt: I feel like there has been little to no news on Corbin Carroll and Kristian Robinson all spring. Any thoughts on how the Dbacks are developing guys relative to teams like the Padres or Mariners where we see their top prospects playing all the time in MLB spring training games?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, yeah I guess it didn’t hit home with me that they’d kept Carroll and Thomas out of games as much as they did. Kristian I don’t think would do well in big league games right now. I’d guess it has more to do with them trying to develop role players like Rojas, Smith, Young…guys who were fighting for playing time. I guess that doesn’t preclude you from throwing a top prospect into the late innings of a game, but I’m also not sure if exciting the fan base is sufficient justification for doing so if you think they’re better suited for backfield dev at age 20.

Darren: I sense the position players at the top of the draft have shifted a fair amount.  Who are your top 3 position players?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, really need to clear this last handful of pro lists to update the amateur side of The Board. If you asked me to take a position player right now it’d be Mayer. Then Lawlar and Davis, I think? Frelick and Davis are really close for me.

Chamaco: We should be seeing guys held down for service time reasons—sorry, I mean, to get some extra reps at the alt site—being called up soon, right? Any thoughts on which top prospects might be up in the next couple of weeks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wouldn’t surprise me if we saw Marsh or Adell. Maybe Nolan Jones.

Jonathan: Mets prospects: Who are you most excited about? Take the biggest leap in 2021? And most under-the-radar?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really wanna see what Alexander Ramirez does, and the deep sleeper is Brandon McIlwain. Much more here: Top 30 Prospects: New York Mets | FanGraphs Baseball

Jeevus: People are saying Kelenic will be called up this weekend, but I am guessing not till June to further the narrative that he wasn’t ready. What is your best guess?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have seen a ton of him this spring, he’s mostly played CF here and clearly can’t do that at the big league level. Bat has looked only okay, it’s not like he’s blown the doors off here in AZ the last couple of weeks, Julio has actually looked better than him in my looks.

The Other Dave: I obviously won’t ask you who the Reds want in the draft because there’s no possible way of knowing. But that team is in an interesting position with the 4th most bonus allotment, despite picking 17th (because they also have the 30th and 35th picks). Have you heard anything about what their overall strategy might be? Are they a candidate for getting anyone who falls?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have any specific intel yet, but agree they’re in the catbird seat. I’d be looking to coax someone who should bo mid-first round back to pick 30 with an overslot number and then cut with a college guy who lacks leverage at 35.

Darren: Royals’ fans are pumped for BWJ!  From a scout’s perspective, did Witt do anything this spring to change the evaluation on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. Bobby is really good, still think he ends up with fringe bat-to-ball skills but hits for power and plays the middle infield. A star player.

Tina (not from Bob’s Burgers): Carson Kelly is looking dope. Does he get more PT and be dope all year, oh mighty soothsayer?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a tough one. I do think Vogt and Varsho will take at-bats from him based on handedness, but he’ll end up producing similar to how he did in 2019.

Kate: Have you seen anything in India’s play so far that surprised you?  He seems to be hitting the ball on the ground an awful lot.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been surprised by how good he looks on defense, actually.

Trader Bob: Where are the Royals going to send Erick Pena to start the year and how far might they be willing to jump him up, if it’s true as they say that they are no longer rebuilding at the MLB level?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was in the Hi-A game I saw the other day, but so was Wilmin Candelario and I’d be really surprised if they assigned him there. I’d guess Pena goes to Low-A to start.

Mr. Baseball: What made Lux such a highly regarded hitting prospect? He hasn’t looked great at the plate in his time in the majors. Are you still confident he figures it out and becomes a star or is just an average regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, he hit .324/.399/.514 and .347/.421/.607 in consecutive seasons as a young-for-the-level 2B. I do think he has the yips, I think he’s a little in his own head about his performance and he can’t throw the ball accurately to 1B. He was a glove-first SS prospect in high school, I don’t know how this happened. I still think he’s going to be a good player (he’ll rake but play LF/DH)

purplemini: Anything you’ve seen in very small Chris Rodriguez sample that makes you think he can become a starter? Or does he  belong in the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: That delivery and his injury history is bullpen-only

A Big Fan: How would you rank these pitching prospects in terms of likelihood of being solid future rotation pieces? Tanner Burns, Seth Johnson, Hunter Brown, Cole Winn, Yoendrys Gomez

Eric A Longenhagen: I have Brown and Johnson ranked at the top of that group but think Burns and Gomez are the most likely to stay in a rotation, if that makes sense.

Fish Stripes: Regarding your Devers write-up, Statcast had him at a 89.9 mph average exit velocity this spring (and max of 98.8). Only 7 batted balls in that sample, but nearly all vs. pitchers with MLB experience. Does that nudge you a little closer to believing in him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, too small a sample.

Fish Stripes: If you didn’t hear yet, the Marlins are making Sean Reynolds a two-way player this season. Should be fun, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh I had not heard that, yeah that’s awesome.

Ben Schneider: Hi Eric, how much of Kevin’s opinion did you take into consideration when making the Astros list?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was a source, was weighed a little more than as if he were a scout from outside the org.

Joe: Will the GCL, AZL and DSL begin their seasons in June and end in August as they did in the past? Will it make sense for drafted players to play in the yr they’re drafted when many won’t sign until there is only a month left in season. Will most sign future contracts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think those leagues will start close to when they normally do and the thing that changes is a bunch of players get released mid-season. Some guys will hit well before the draft and move up a level, maybe replacing older guys in full-season ball who get cut.

Jpack: What are your thoughts on the “Double Hook” as an alternative to the DH. As a NL follower, I see it as an improvement to the DH.

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually really freaking like it.

Zo: Hey, Eric! Are Cristian Pache‘s struggles so far indicative of a long-term K% problem? This is not the start ATL fans were hoping for. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’s going to be an impact offensive player, just a solid one who plays a premium defensive position at an elite level.

Jimmy: What’s the deal with Roberto Osuna? He’s clogging my NA spot in a 15-team h2h dynasty league. Is he useless/droppable for 2021? I can’t find any news on that dude.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a free agent, nobody is going to sign him. He’s in Ray Rice land because of what he did. Just cut him, it’s over.

Lars: Eric, do you know anything more about Adam Haseley’s leave of absence than I do? Worries me to see a guy walk away from the ballclub without a medical reason.

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. This is less baseball-y, but I guess I’m glad there’s less stigma around taking a mental health break now than there used to be and that we’re a little more open to talking about it and being flexible with it as a culture now. But I also don’t think that necessarily means our collective mental health is improving. I think quite the opposite.

Eric A Longenhagen: Struggling in front of hundreds of thousands of people and then being told you suck when you open up your phone probably isn’t good for us.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Is Akil Baddoo just playing hot right now or is there actually something different in his profile since you last saw him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he’s just hot. It’s super early. Think he’s a big leaguer, just think it’s more a role-player fit than a star.

Mike: What are your thoughts on Sam Bachmann? How similar is he to Max Meyer last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Reliever for me, but so was Crochet and he went where he did. That’s the area I’d expect Bachmann to be taken.

Luke: Any recent reports on how Owen White has looked?

Eric A Longenhagen: 92-95 the other day

DanQuaalude: How would you rank this draft compared to the last handful?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s super deep because barely anybody was picked last year.

Paul: Do you see Levi Stoudt, as a prospect that could break into the Mariners top 10 prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Was mid-90s with a plus changeup in college, guys coming back from TJ often have better bodies, deliveries, sometimes develop a better pitch. I’m a sucker for Eastern PA dudes, too.

Billy Beane: Congrats on the second vaccine! I hope in 15 days you get to have someone stand too close to you and only be uncomfortable and not afraid for your life!

Eric A Longenhagen: Dude, I’m gonna have strangers spit directly into my mouth. You’ve heard of Rumsrpinga, this is Lungspringa.

Alvin: Yo, Eric! Seems to me that pitchers don’t need hitters for development nearly as much as hitters need to face live pitching. Think the (two?) yearlong layoff for most minor leaguers could lead to something of a pitchers’ era down the line?

Eric A Longenhagen: Totally agree with the dev piece you outline. I’m not sure what the consequences of the past twelve months will be for the hitting population at large. I do think it’s likely to be bad for them, though I guess I don’t know the extent to which VR training is now pervasive enough to have offset some of the live looks hitters didn’t get. High speed pitching machines that can mimic different pitch movement are also more common now, but  it’s not like guys have one in their yard.

Markus: Is Jazz getting consideration for a hit tool bump? The barrel % is sexy as heck!

Eric A Longenhagen: I obviously love Jazz but I could see him having a stretch like Luis Robert did the back half of last year. Big league pitchers adjust.

Brett: Do you expect all three of Lawler/Meyer/Watson to go in the top 10?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d do Watson up there, yeah. Not sure if he goes up there, though.

WOO PIG: Hey Eric – what do we make of Kevin Kopps? He has 49 K’s in 28 IP and SEC hitters can’t touch his slider according to the Pitching Ninja. Will teams take a chance on this type of pitch regardless of age?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah man, Kopps is super cool. How many college guys throw more sliders than anything else? Only been about 89-94 with the heater this year. I think he has something like a 30% whiff rate on the slider? Feel like he’s a third round sort for me. Dude was eligible last year, right? What a crazy year

Joey: When you go to the ballpark, how do you take notes? Is there a template or something you use or do you just write stuff that sticks out in a notebook?

Eric A Longenhagen: My notetaking has changed a lot over the course of (checks calendar) jesus the 13 years I’ve done this. I used to chart every pitch (this was when I was in PA and seeing a lot of double- and triple-a), then I used to take rough notes in a notebook and transcribe them into a cleaner report on a template sheet. Now I just give each player a couple lines in the notebook and try to fill it out, my transcription process just makes its way to the site now.

Adam: It’s too soon to read into any stat lines, but how has Ha-Seong Kim looked at the plate to you? Seems a little lost at times, but is he about where you expected at this point or more behind?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him four times during the spring and struggled with velo every time. This is the thing that was scary about him coming over from Korea is you can’t recreate big league velo over there. He deserves time to adjust, he’s also been asked to play all over the place at the same time he’s thrust into a new culture and seeing monster stuff

Brad: What are your thoughts on ACC catchers Mat Nelson of FSU and Luca Tresh of NC State?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nelson has bug boy pop. Need to do video work on his defense, really don’t have an opinion on that this second. Tresh: Better body/athlete than Nelson for sure, think he tracks fastballs great and can hit them, kinda worried about him vs breaking balls

Buff: For a guy with 60 command, Nick Neidert sure has a curious K/BB ratio (6/9) to start off the season. What gives? Afraid he’ll get pounded if he throws the ball over the plate?

Eric A Longenhagen: super small sample. watch how often he locates where the catcher wants, he definitely needs to nibble

BettsBellingerCaruso: Thoughts on Dustin May also throwing more 4seamers & getting more whiffs so far this season?

And on Lux – still too early but he’s getting better contact than last year but the xwOBA is still subpar compared to his expectations – would you still grade him 70 FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good for May, makes sense to have two diff fastballs. No, I’d prob just 60 Lux at this point.

Doug: With many teams having let go of a lot of scouts during covid, do you think that teams like the Royals that committed to retaining most/all of their scouting workforce will have a tangible leg up as soon as this year’s draft? And do you think any of those lost scouting jobs could come back now that the economic impact of the pandemic is retreating?

Eric A Longenhagen: Great question and it’ll be the last one for today. I do think teams who retained the bulk of their staff have an advantage over ones who furloughed them, and that as use of current data becomes more uniform through baseball (via data sharing and the industry’s asymptotic rate of understanding and parsing it) that having lots of good scouts will still be how you get an edge. Their thoughts are certainly imperfect, but as we gain more and more objective understanding of things like stuff and bat speed, perhaps one day vision and cognitive function, it’s the subtle visual and intangible stuff that will separate players from one another.

Eric A Longenhagen: thanks to everyone for coming this week. Have a great weekend, please consider hitting a college game near you once you’re vax’d. bye bye