Eric Longenhagen Chat: 5/10/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from lovely Tempe. Chat is starting early today so I can hit Extended at 10, so I’ll spare you the links (you know where to find stuff) and get to the Qs

Tommy N.: Chances of MacKenzie Gore making the big leagues this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty slim. The big club would have to be in some kind of race down to the wire (seems possible) and they’d have to think he were one of the best few options in the org AND the workload stuff needs to line up properly which, after the blister stuff last year, seems tricky

Greg: When’s the next mock out?

Eric A Longenhagen: when we have sufficient info to run one, probably sometime next week

Jon: Eric, hello! I’ll be in Lehigh Valley over the summer; any food recommendations?

Alan: Where do you think is currently the most likely destination for Hunter Bishop?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t been there for a long time now and a bunch of my favorite places have closed. I’d suggest a fancy dinner at Bolete and Bookstore Speakeasy while you’re there. You’ll end up spending a lot of time in Downtown Bethlehem if you’re looking for fun stuff to do. Coplay doesn’t have a great food scene or anything.

Eric A Longenhagen: ATL, I guess?

Greg: How much are Hunter Bishop’s increasing strikeouts concerning teams?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhat, he’s been beaten by breaking stuff beneath the zone a lot lately. That plus the previous two years of statistical struggle will make it tough for teams to buy in the way they have with Bleday.

Pine Needles: 3 walks in 26 innings for Nate Pearson. Improved command, or just a case of him being too good for his level?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s encouraging but could just be a product of shorter outings, age/level, that kind of stuff.

Reid: Hi Eric, thanks for the chat. The President made a comment about potentially rescinding a rule (that he put back in place, but alas) and allowing those with military commitments to defer their service to play pro sports. How would this affect Noah Song’s draft stock and perceived value?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’d go from someone’s longshot flier to a potential day 1 arm

Tazu: Is Jorge Mateo a high end prospect again? Chances of a call-up this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think we’ll just leave him in the 45/45+ area. Has been too much of a roller coaster his entire career to buy him as a top 100 type, even though the physical ability for that is obviously there. Glad he’s hitting, though.

HoHahn: What’s happening at AA Birmingham? Everyone’s suddenly bad!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure that player dev situation is working out. Getz probably hasn’t been running the shop long enough to be critically certain, but lots of their arms have gone backward the last few years. Driveline just published a study on player dev that had them last in value added.

Pols: Are you buying the rumors of the Sox taking Abrams at #3?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s in the mix, yeah.

Pols: Has Vaughn taken a half step back, or is he just not getting anything to drive?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has seen a ton of breaking stuff since the early season. Korey Lee, Cam Eden and those guys are okay, but this seems like a classic ‘don’t let that guy beat us’ situation which is impacting Vaughn’s performance.

Tazu: If Kirilloff moves to 1B, will he move down in the rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Jim: Does Cody Bolton have a chance for a significant mid season evaluation byump?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, was a great SoCal sleeper find who appears healthy after the shoulder stuff ended what looked like a 2018 breakout

Ryan: Any names connected to the Angels at this point? Is it likely they target high upside athletes again this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think the young prep athletes are in play, yeah. Kyren Paris, the two-sport kids, maybe a college arm if one of tough-to-pass value falls (but who’s that guy? Thompson maybe?)

Sinjin: Was Luis Torrens not included on the SD Prospect List because of eligibility or value. If the former where would he fall.

Eric A Longenhagen: He, Cordoba and Miguel Diaz have all lost rookie eligibility. Diaz is the only of the 3 who’d be in the 40 FV tier or above (Diaz would be a 40) and Cordoba would be an HM utility type

Baseball: tell me about the prospects

Eric A Longenhagen: they might be good or might not

Mike: I know domingo german is no longer a prospect, but how real is his performance this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff-wise this is real, he’s just had a lot of injury issues throughout his career.

Derek: Have gotten a chance to see the international players the padres are likely to sign? What are your thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve seen a little of Reg Preciado who is a projectable, switch-hitting shortstop with avg feel/athleticism.

Matthew Wines: Really impressed early on with Edwards and Marcano. Do you see them keeping this obp skill set as they progress ? It’s desperately needed in the Majors. Also do you see Edwards moving to CF soon ? Thank you

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea when X might move or if he will, I think both these guys have premium OBP skills

Nick: Is 2019 the year Gilbert Lara finally breaks out? I remember him being a big deal when he signed several years ago.

Eric A Longenhagen: Meh, this is definitely encouraging but tough to envision him as a regular 3B with the swing and miss issues. Bench role seems more likely, but he’d need to play other positions. Stock up, surely. But what’s a realistic role there?

GPT: Do you think the Giants approach in the draft will be markedly different under Zaidi, Holmes, and Bridges compared to Sabean, Evans, and Barr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, but I don’t know what proclivities that confluence of individuals might show.

FYI-: Cameron Cannon shows up at 52nd in Value, but is missing on the Scouting-Position tab.

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias

hi: what are your opinions on m chavis? will he be a megastar?

Eric A Longenhagen: thought he was an avg regular at 1B before the PED suspension, had to round him down beneath the other 50 FV 1B types (Yordan Alvarez, Alonso) after he got popped.

PJ: Ruiz still a 45 after his putrid showing in the Cal League thus far?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah dude, he’s 20 and it’s been a month

Jim Leyland Palmer: How does Bleday compare to recent years top college bats? Guys like Senzel, Bregman, Benitendi, India, Bohm, Conforto, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: Same as Bohm and India, ahead of Conforto (for me, I didn’t like Conforto) behind Bregman, Benintendi, Senzel (though close to Senzel)

Padres List: You guys are a little light on Edward Oliveras Is say. Dude is tearing up AA. I realize these lists are done weeks, if not months, in advance of actual posting, but do you not go in and update for breakouts, such as his?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, he’s a r/r corner guy and we know very little about the offensive environment at Amarillo. Where should, say, Hunter Renfroe be on a list? Probably a 45? I don’t think Olivares has that kind of power but he has similar plate discipline issues. I feel pretty good about the 40 we have there.

PJ: Michael Grove had TJ in ’18. Cool. Does that mean he needs to be treated like his arm might fall off at any point? Braxton Garrett‘s over here throwing 100 pitches an outing. Why are the Dodgers being so cautious with this guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d look at Walker Buehler‘s and Julio Urias‘ success and just trust that they have a good idea of how to handle injured arms

BBfan: How does Hunter Barco’s injury affect his draft status?

Eric A Longenhagen: It might take him out of play for a couple of teams but he may still find the right fit: a team that likes him and has the pool space to sign him. It only takes one.

Jon: Any rumblings about Luzardo throwing soon? Still think he has time to be a late season call up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have nothing beyond what the beat writers have reported, which is that he’ll start throwing relatively soon.

Not: Who are you higher one from this confusingly named Texas duo, Yerry Rodriguez or Ronny Henriquez? Both have been incredibly impressive to start the year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yerry, but I really like both https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-texas-rangers/

Dees: Trey Harris is off to a hot start. Is it just a classic example of an advanced college hitter with limited upside tearing up A-ball? Or is there something there?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s interesting because of the power but yeah, he’s 23 and in Low-A.

Stevie: What is your outlook for Corey Seager? Other than walking more, his quality of contact is not exciting, ( Exit Velocity, Barrels % and Hard Hit %) but he is returning from injury issues? Would you hold in a 12 teamer?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’s an MVP talent, don’t sell low on that guy

Kdog: Is Martin Perez for realz?

Eric A Longenhagen: the cutter development seems to have been significant

Daniel: Any late college risers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe Brady McConnell, Noah Song if the military commitment policy indeed changes. Conference tourney time will surely move some guys.

Mason Thompson: Do I really touch 102?

Eric A Longenhagen: no, that was a typo that I just fixed

Recca: Joseph Naranjo is near the top of the list for best pure hitter among high schoolers in this draft.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah he’s a good hitter. Thick-bodied HS 1B-only guy. Tough profile but yeah, he can hit.

Ethan: Has Alex Faedo rebuilt his value as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s good that he’s performing but the velo, lack of extension, and knee surgeries aren’t going away. Unless he develops 7 command or something like that, I just think he’s a #4/5.

DJ Tanner: Is there a place to find EV data on MiLB players?

Eric A Longenhagen: nope

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’re the only place you can find spin rate data of any kind

LudeBurger: Eric, I can’t believe how far we have come. Right about when you arrived at FanGraphs was when I was starting my Masters program. Now I am close to finishing and you continue to produce incredible content, like today’s monster prospect list. I just want to thank you for all of the reading material (the lists are incredible), improved vocabulary, live draft thoughts, cat pictures and stories, MtG and Pokemon allusions, and shared endearment for sharks that you have provided during our times at our respective places. The FanGraphs community is lucky to have you. #pleasedontleaveus

Eric A Longenhagen: Muchas gracias, I don’t think I’m going anywhere

jumpin’ jack flash: Eric: love your chats. Are there any prospect OFs that didn’t make yours (and Kiley’s) preseason top 100 that have really caught your eye lately? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Dylan Carlson, Julio Rodriguez

David: Update on Crawford/Long question: Corey Brock reporting both players going to Seattle with injuries to Dee Gordon and Dylan Moore.

Eric A Longenhagen: kewl, that’ll be interesting to watch

Gene Autry: Any chance Jose Suarez gets a shot at the Angels’ rotation this year? I know the shoulder issue has set him back but I think he is back pitching again.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe so

Daniel: Hypothetically speaking if Jose Fernandez hadn’t passed away, do you think the Marlins would have tried to build around their core instead of selling? Fernandez, Yelich, Stanton, Realmuto, and Ozuna is a pretty legit core to build around

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. That Loria/Samson pairing was diabolical, man.

Large Adult Son: What do you think of Jerad Eickoff’s gameplan against the cardinals this week. Certainly they came in expecting heavy curveball usage so naturally he throws 45% sliders. Pretty impressive adjustment.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think game theory stuff will become a growing part of the hitter/pitcher interaction

Dan: I know this is dumb, but what exactly is extended spring training? Mostly drills and workouts, or are they playing actual games against other teams?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scrimmages against other minor leaguers at the spring training complexes. Sometimes innings end before 3 outs due to pitch counts, no stats are kept. But it’s a great place to find dudes.

Walter Sobchak: How much optimism do you still have for Lewis Brinson?

Eric A Longenhagen: Enough that I’d buy low on him if I played fantasy but not so much that I’d 60 FV him on a list again

The 6ix: What are the chances that a young flamethrowing pitcher with control issues ever learns to avoid the walks and high pitch counts? Think Darwinzon Hernandez.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know the exact odds but Verlander was that guy once upon a time. There are plenty of examples.

Phil: Hi Eric, has there been any new buzz surrounding Marco Luciano?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really, he looks great. I’m gonna go see him as soon as we wrap here.

Jerome: Does Gorman stay at 3B? Where would you put odds he moves to 1B or the OF (at least once Goldy isn’t in the lineup)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he stays at 3B for a while

Mostly rational Braves fan: Trey Harris and victor vodnik. A senior sign and an 18 yr old project. What else do you have on them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Vodnik we love, could be a fireballing reliever at least

Taylor: Hey Eric, Matt Tabor and Levi Kelly both made their debuts a few days ago. The line score for both look great. Have you heard anything about how they performed/how their stuff looked? Thank you!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not on Levi Kelly but I know scouts who like him. Mid-90s, good slider. I’m out on the body and delivery, thin khe’s RP at best. Tabor is above-avg athlete, above change, above curveball, velo might come late because it’s a NE arm.

Kevin: What would be the drawback to making minor league trackman data public? Are teams able to hide prospects from teams that don’t have teams in their affiliates? Making the data public would likely lead to 3rd party projection systems that they could compare their own data to, as well as help identify people within the public sphere they’d like to hire as analysts.

Eric A Longenhagen: Trackman wouldn’t like that

Neal: Eric, would you kindly expound on your recent tweet on Michel Baez? You said his breaker lacked bite but has functional shape/depth. What does that mean exactly, and does it portend good/bad/indifferent things moving forward? Any idea how long until he’s out on assignment?

Eric A Longenhagen: It means the curve is fine for dumping into the zone for strikes when hitters aren’t expecting it, but it’s not so nasty that I think hitters will swing at it and miss. It’s been that way for him since signing, he’s a fastball/changeup arm, primarily.

Jack: Thoughts on what the Phillies are likely to do at 14?

Eric A Longenhagen: college something

Jeff: What is it about Biggios scouting profile that holds him back? Batted ball profile, plate discipline, etc. All look great

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think he’s a 2B, more corner OF/1B for me.

Christian walker: Why am I playing well all of a sudden? Is it sustainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: There hasn’t been a swing change that I can detect. Sometimes this happens. Nellie Cruz didn’t bust out until his late-20s, Jesus Aguilar was a fringe 40-man guy…the 1B-types like this sometimes just need an opportunity that’s hard for that profile to come by.

DCFC: Why do you guys never talk about Daniel Castro?

Eric A Longenhagen: The 26y/o Dodgers infielder who hasn’t been rookie eligible since 2016?

ToddBJMB: Is it time for Jays fans to give up on Alford?

Eric A Longenhagen: he looked no bueno when I saw him a few weeks ago, we’re getting to that point.

Nick: what were your thoughts on Hunter Dozier back when he was a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-20-prospects-kansas-city-royals/

Pat: If San Diego is contending in July, is a guy like Matthew Boyd a potential target? Seems like he would be a great fit in Petco, has 3+ years of control. What would they likely need to give up to pull it off?

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s a pretty good fit, yeah. three years of a 2-war guy probably gets you a 45/50 FV type of prospect, at least. Some of those upper-level OFs like Franchy would seem like good fits there. Detroit has time to let them play and develop vs big league arms but they’re under team control for long enough that they might be around when DET is good again

Yosemite Same: Thanks for the Padres article! Not a question: I knew they were deep, but holy hell are they deep!

Eric A Longenhagen: (nods) i’m glad to be done with writing all that

Floop: Jo Adell is back!!! Tell me you saw that homer!!!

Eric A Longenhagen: nah i’ve been on HS state playoff games

Goule: Thoughts on the UCLA guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dig Strumpf as a 2nd round type, a little lower on Toglia, 4th-5th round on Ryan Garcia, I’m not on Kriedler

Chris: Who are the mariners rumored to like with their first round pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: one of the prep SS’s

Kretin: Do teams with later picks in the draft bother scouting the top names?

Eric A Longenhagen: not really

JH: Do you consider Geraldo Perdomo’s performance so far to be a good sign (for showing the same advanced approach in full-season ball), concerning (given the vanishing power), or not really worth noting one way or the other?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s just confirmation of what we saw last year, really.

Arad: Will Logan Gilbert be on a similar path thru the minors as Griffin Canning?

Eric A Longenhagen: very

Walt: Have you heard anything about top-5 teams taking underslot guys, or is that less likely with the D-backs having so many picks?

Eric A Longenhagen: might go under slot on a guy who would otherwise go, say, 6th.

Eric A Longenhagen: like if you think Abrams doesn’t go until 6 and you pick 3, you should try to cut a deal there. You won’t be able to control who else you get with the savings because of teams like the DBacks, but if you like enough of the Volpes, Leiters, Barcos, etc that you’re confident one of those guys will be there for you later, you can still do it.

angels: How have Jeremiah Jackson and D’Shawn Knowles looked in xST? Either look like they’re ready for Burlington?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jackson did not look good when I saw him and I haven’t seen Knowles or Deveaux play.

Eric A Longenhagen: okay you guys, I’ve gotta run. Thanks for stopping by this week. Hope the Friday goes swiftly and you have a great damn weekend. See you next Friday