Eric Longenhagen Chat 5/31/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. I’ve got regionals on the tube but may sneak out to Extended in about an hour, so I’ll try to move through your draft questions as fast as possible.

Tommy N.: Chances Vaughn can be serviceable at a position other than 1B?

Eric A Longenhagen: slim

Teddy: The mock mentioned Lodolo to Atlanta at 9 because it was a good value. Was that you and Kiley’s opinion, or do you think that is Atlanta’s opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: both, we think, but I expect we’ll have a different name there Monday.

Steven Tobolowsky: Are the Tigers connected to Michigan LHP Tommy Henry in any way?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that I’m aware, Steven.

Eric A Longenhagen: Man, Campbell is taking it to NC State in the first.

Greg: You only mentioned Hoese at 21 to Atlanta. Any other targets you’ve heard with their second pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: We dumped what we had in the mock, we didn’t hold anything back

Greg: With what you’ve seen of Hunter Bishop, how concerned are you about the Ks being a long-term concern? Is there a mechanical fix, or is it pitch recognition or something else?

Eric A Longenhagen: He swings over top of breaking balls beneath the zone. He’s not early on them, I think he identifies them okay and needs a longer stride or more flex in his front leg to get to them. It’s fair to be optimistic he can make that adjustment, he did make several coming into this season after all.

Larry: Where’s the earliest landing spot for Corbin Carroll?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eight

Paul: What % chance would you give UF getting either Matthew Allan OR Hunter Barco to campus?

Eric A Longenhagen: Barco maybe a little better because there was a late injury and his delivery is weird, velo has been all over the place. Those things might scare someone away, but we think he gets picked and signs.

Josh: On the latest mock you said that the Angels may cut with a high-profile prep if no one they want is there at 15. Is this a beneficial strategy for the Angels, whose 2nd round pick is all the way at 55?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, there’s enough prep talent that someone good will be there at 55

JP: Lot of 3Bs slated to go relatively high next Monday. Who’s your favorite of the bunch?

Eric A Longenhagen: Baty

Desmond: Are you concerned at all by Royce Lewis’ slow start? If you’re the Twins would you consider including him in a deal for a high end SP this summer?

Eric A Longenhagen: no and no

Spider Puig: What are the chances that one of the big 6 hitters fall to 7 for the Reds? Who would be the one to fall in that scenario?

Eric A Longenhagen: slim, I’d guess Greene

kevinthecomic: How is Jose Suarez doing since starting the year on the IL?

Eric A Longenhagen: looked fine when I saw him rehabbing

Kevin: What round do you think the first player not on THE BOARD! gets picked?

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmm, 4?

Kevin: Has Abraham Toro raised his stock with his hot start to this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: no, still have him as more of a bit player than a regular

Jose: Thoughts on Cesar Puello’s hot start?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was a good add, might be a low-end regular

Jose: Is it the ball or has Christian Arroyo developed an uptick in power?

Eric A Longenhagen: i have no idea how much to factor the ball at Triple-A, just be skeptical of all the numbers at that level

The West is Wild: What D-backs prospect outside of the current top 10 do you predict will climb highest on the list by this time next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Barrosa

J: If the Dbacks promised Abrams $7M, how likely is it that he would fall to them?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think someone would take him and dare him to turn down $4 -5mil

Ed: Likelihood the Giants take Keoni Cavaco at 10?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think that’s in play

J: Is Brandon McIlwain expected to be signable or is he more likely to return to play football?

Eric A Longenhagen: football

mark: Do you agree that the Padres would take Greene at 3 if they had the 3rd pick and Witt and Addley went 1-2?

Eric A Longenhagen: no

Trevor: Who are in the first three tiers of draft prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&so…

Deathclaw: Has anything changed with Lolo Sanchez this year or just a case of repeating a level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Same stuff, which is to say he’s pretty talented and has some issues with monochromatic contact and aggressiveness. He’s a good prospect.

Boots: It’s very odd to see the White Sox emphatically interested in Abrams after years of college players. Has something changed strategically with them? What is driving this?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’d ask if you think their recent strategy is working? I wasn’t on Burger, Sheets, that type of player. Not for me.

Adam: Caleb Smith and Matt Boyd are two guys whose performance does not equal their reputation. Does that negatively effect the way front offices (and perhaps more importantly, owners) will value them on the trade market? Do teams still care about public perception of what an ace is?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t accept the premise. In the bigs, your performance is your reputation.

Jack: Is Corbin Carroll to similar to Haseley and Moniak for the Phillies to take?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really. Maybe he’s somewhat like Mo because it’s contact/CF/speed/instincts but there are physical differences that make the comp worse.

Griffin, Orlando FL: With college pitching so weak this year- where would a guy like Reid Detmers have gone should be been eligible?

Eric A Longenhagen: we have a 45 fv on Detmers and would have him in that tier of the 2019 group

Steven Tobolowsky: Why can’t I lead my own movie?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d watch you in a dramatization of your supermarket gunpoint holdup but that might not be the healthiest thing for you, mentally.

mark: In the intro to the Draft BOARD you guys described some teams’ approaches to the draft and player development. What would you say the Padres’ draft and player development philosophy is?

Eric A Longenhagen: Aggressive, proactive, toolsy, sexy, creative

Ryan E: what do you make of Dylan Carlson’s hot start in AA? Can he be a middle of the order bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in, bet he’s at the Futures Game

Jed C: Which position player and which pitcher do you foresee moving up the most in mid-season rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have to see where Zach Plesac is at. Velo is way up, need to see the breaking ball (Change is plus). Hitter? Probably one of the AZL kids who comes up and blows everyone away like Rocchio last year.

Larry Legend: Which team do you think will most aggressively try to push a HS pitcher down the board?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s too much to try target individuals because Arizona might wreck your plan. Jack Leiter supposedly has a short list of teams he’d sign with, so maybe one of those make a move to free up cash to sign him.

Anthony: Is JC Flowers a legit two-way prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but not as good as Tanner Dodson last year or anything like that.

Charlie: LouBob starting to rip AA pitching. SHOULD, not will, SHOULD he be in Chicago in September?

Eric A Longenhagen: no

Nate: I know y’all are in full blown draft mode at the moment, but have y’all heard anything more about what’s been going on with Forrest Whitley to start the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was just shut down with an injury

brad nj: why do people keep saying the big 6 hitters, isn’t adams little to no power?

Eric A Longenhagen: no, he’s added mass and has at least average raw now. It isn’t playing in games yet because he has a contact-oriented approach, but he’s not a weakling.

Charlie: Compare CJ Abrams to Tim Anderson for me. Profile sounds similar (speed, up the middle athlete) but Anderson seems to have more pop than Abrams whereas he is much more polished? Fair?

Eric A Longenhagen: they’re not similar at all, sorry

Eric A Longenhagen: they’re each fast, that’s it

Ed: Chances Luciano is able to stick at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: 30%

Slothrop: What does “second division regular” mean?

Eric A Longenhagen: guys who play everyday but end up in the bottom third of the WAR leaderboard for their position. CJ Cron types, Leonys Martin, etc.

Charlie: Nick Madrigal thoughts? Believer? He is heating up in A+ and running all over the place

Eric A Longenhagen: …

Amir: Is there >20% chance of Toglia from UCLA going in the 1st round? If so, who are you hearing him being attached to? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not, we have him 2nd round with Colorado and Oakland

Lucas D: No question from me, just thanks for motivating me to watch college baseball this year. I live near Purdue and followed season online, went to a few games.

Eric A Longenhagen: (thumbs up)

Brian: Is Heliot Ramos’ hot start for real?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, tools are back after they were down last year

Brendan: Does Illinois State’s John Rave get drafted? If yes, when would he go?

Eric A Longenhagen: day 3, I think. We’ll have a regional prospect preview up soon (Meg has it)

Rj: Does it feel weird that the Yankees are 25th in farm system rankings…. what would it take for them to jump in top 15? Is signing Dominguez enough? Or do they need their short season guys to take the next step?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can deduce that stuff for yourself by adding together the FV asset values needed to push them into that arbitrary range

Connor Joe Buck: Any word on how Kaprielian’s stuff has looked in his short starts since getting back?

Eric A Longenhagen: No bueno, 88-92 while rehabbing here in AZ

D: Duran? Duran? How much has your opinion changed on him this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m glad we were heavy on him entering the year (Kiley drove that bus) but gotta see college hitters do it at upper levels, imo.

Dash: I have a nephew pitching in Northern Idaho, do those kids ever get drafted?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes but it’s rare. Idaho is tough to scout, Northwest area scouts typically have it but not always.

Brian: How likely is it that Bishop falls to the Giants at 10?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s maybe, maybe a sleeper at 6, in play at 8 and 9. It’s probably close to 50/50 but trending up

Hi: I don’t understand the Madrigal response.

Eric A Longenhagen: we’ve been on Nicky for a long time and there are places on this website where that’s obvious

Josh: Odds that McIllwain signs and finally focuses on baseball full time?

Eric A Longenhagen: (shrug) the whole situation has been a disaster, in my opinion.

Eric A Longenhagen: He probably has no pro football future

Kyle: Who would you rather have in your org Vaugh or Greene?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I need to start doing links at the onset of each chat again. Here are our draft rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Guest: Why isn’t Corbin Carroll a top 10 prospect in this draft? Seems like the recent success of shorter and smaller framed players should mitigate that concern.

Eric A Longenhagen: approach to contact limits power output. We really like him

Kyle: Is all hope lost for Franklin Perez

Eric A Longenhagen: No, but he sure is hurt a lot and i agree it’s discouraging.

Gest : Who do you like more, Lodolo or Manoah?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s close but we have Lodolo ahead of Manoah right now

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s the regional preview

Eric A Longenhagen: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reviewing-the-prospects-in-the-ncaa-region…

Finn: Do players drafted in the late rounds tend to know they’re going to be drafted, or does it come as a surprise?

Eric A Longenhagen: typically a surprise, lots find out after it happens rather than listen to the conference call

Matt Klentak: How often does an area scout get “shut out” as in no kids they scouted ended up being drafted by their organization? Is it the writing on the wall for that area scout?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s often just random, not always a sign the scout is doomed

Mason: Is this improved Ljay Newsome something to get excited about? What’s the chance he ranks with Gilbert, Dunn, and Sheffield at the end of the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: velo up a bit, and some other improvements: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-4-15-19/

dilbert: Recently some NFL media draft experts have gotten looks at general manager jobs (Mayock to the Raiders and Daniel Jeremiah had heat from the Jets). Do you ever see that happening in baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Directly to GM? No. Maybe a Special Assistant job (wink wink) would be good.

Josh: Do any of the lower tier football guys project to sign? Ealy, Bowen, Plumlee etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: seems unlikely

Boba Chett : I love the draft summary you guys put together. That information is very helpful in the future, to provide context. Is there any way you could link that to the board so it could be more readily accessed later?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’ll be on the prospects home page: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Rob D: Thoughts on the best strategy for the D-Backs? Use that huge bonus pool to load up on overslot guys early?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d diversify, anchor with college pitching in that sandwich round mix

Tim: After that driveline analysis, the White Sox need to fire their whole development staff, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s an extreme course of action but I agree it’s not working

The People: McDongencast or we riot!

Eric A Longenhagen: yell at Kiley, we were supposed to record last night but he was out too long. Today.

Sean: Did Kevin Cron make a legitimate step forward in AAA or was he just a product of the juiced ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not buying it any more than I was buying Christian Walker

Guest: Is Hunter Bishop much different from Greyson Jenista as a prospect? Their draft profiles read similarly to me, and mandatory swing changes make me nervous.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bish is a 6 runner, better body, real shot to stay in CF. Jenista’s swing was way more a mess.

brad nj: Eric, how do you weigh risks in the ranking. Like how does a SP who as close to a sure thing but will be a 3/4 rank vs a guy like Pint who throws 100, but has maybe 10% chance to stay healthy develop control and be a 1/2. I am sure the guy like Pint will rank higher, but not sure he should. is there some formula with celiing times likeliness to pan out?

Eric A Longenhagen: the risk part is totally subjective, we take it case by case. A sure thing 3/4 is a 55 FV, we have a 40+ on Pint (probabl reliever, but chance it’s a special one if that’s the case)

E: will prospects page be added to the top navigation menu? hard to find without direct linking in

Eric A Longenhagen: hover over ‘Blogs;

Connor Joe Buck: when are the DPNs coming back?

Eric A Longenhagen: probably the week after the draft, but I’ll be at PG National and DPN will be dominated by that event

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s my hour. please enjoy today’s regional games. We’ll be chatting live during the draft Monday night, see you then.