Eric Longenhagen Chat: 6/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, everyone.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s the last day of Extended Spring, my target game got moved to 6pm so here I am. Let’s talk prospects and whatever else your heart desires for about an hour…

Buff Chick: Cubs or Brewers list first?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brewers

>this guy<: Eric are any of the prospect bonus demands starting to leak out and are those causing people to allegedly rise or slide according to #sources?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nothing beyond the handful of guys who already have very strong commits or who had bad springs. If there’s one player who’s the inverse of this it’s FL prep SS Jonathan Vastine (Vandy) who sounds more signable than we thought a couple months ago.

Seth: Has Jake Burger‘s showing thus far in Charlotte changed his projections at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen what he looks like at second base yet but that experiment is probably too new to glean anything from anyway. I bet he plays a big league role somewhere but I don’t think he’s an everyday player, still.

froglegs_jackson: congrats on landing the cover in ESPN’s Body issue

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re recreating that Burt Reynolds centerfold

Pitching: Hi Eric, I know this is a vague question but what would you say the top 5 pitches are? Not player specific, like “Haders fastball”. I just mean like, are certain pitches just fundamentally better than others?

Eric A Longenhagen: Uhhhh, I think the pitch that carries the most water and helps pitchers outpace my expectations is the changeup, so I guess I’d say that?

Jeff: You seem to be the high one on matt mikulski changeup. Everywhere I read labels it as a work in progress, can you offer any insight as to why you give it a future 70.

Eric A Longenhagen: It finishes in consistently competitive locations and he’s thrown the pitch 160 times on tape, gotten 50 whiffs. Just for context, Giolito (I just picked a guy with a great change quickly) has a 22% swinging strike rate on his changeup this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: I know Fordham isn’t facing lineups so good that you can just compare those numbers apples to apples, but getting a whiff every third time you throw a pitch is freaking good

Guest: Can Mark Vientos hit enough to make use of his power at the MLB level? He struggled to start the season at AA, but is still pretty young, and seems to be a guy who often starts slow at a level and then catches on.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s tracking a lot like Bobby Dalbec, which is to say I think he’s a role player but not a true everyday, every inning sort.

Darren: For the draft, are teams trying to figure out which pitchers are using ‘sticky stuff’? Do they already know?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t heard that teams specifically care about this but all you have to do is watch the guy and you know whether or not he’s using. Application of this stuff has been going on right in front of us for a very long time, I think a more interesting question is: why didn’t fans who regularly watch games on TV ever notice it was going on without being told?

Go Cubs Go: Yeison Santana seemed to have a lot of hype coming into this season, but he hasn’t been performing. Too soon to worry for a 20 year old in A ball or is there cause for concern?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’s played 18 games. Way too early

James: I have Seth Beer in a dynasty league so I’ve been following his season closely wondering when the heck the DBacks are going to give him a shot. Its been a great start. K rate down a bunch. Walk rate up slightly. How likely is it that he can be a .275/.350 25-30 homer guy at the major league level?

Eric A Longenhagen: That line is too rich for me,

ElGuapo: Burl Carraway walking the yard a cause for concern? Or does reliever expectation mean it’s just a matter of things lclicking” as you picked…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not a starting pitching prospect so this is okay. Monster stuff, 94-97 with carry and two plus breaking balls. he’s going to be a darn good reliever.

Dalton: With the Rangers out of it and Josh Jung off to a great start in AA, doesn’t it make sense for the Rangers to call him up after the all star break?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe promote him to Triple-A post break and if he keeps hitting he’s up in Sept?

Mike: Hey Eric – still hearing the rumor that Leiter is pricing himself to the Red Sox at 4? Any other Red Sox rumors you’re hearing?

Eric A Longenhagen: A scout told me yesterday they’ve kicked around what it might take to get Mayer to fall to them, even if it means over slot. KG and I will be working the phones over the weekend and have a new mock out next week

Francis: How do you rank Marsh, Larnach and Valera long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2021 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Darren: Jeison Guzman has been raking so far and played in CF some. Can he be an everyday CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a great question. I have no idea how he looks out there. Saw him a bunch this year but never in CF. Believe in the bat and SS glove enough that I put him where I did on the Royals list. Hard for me to see him being a better CF defender than he is at SS (he’s good) but positional versatility certainly doesn’t hurt.

CBA Talks: Do you expect draft pick trading to become a thing and the subsquent creation of *SUPER* teams through trading for higher picks?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’ll become a thing if hard slotting becomes a thing.

Mr. Manager: Michael Burrows is getting some great results in Greensboro. Way better than Quinn Priester. Has he moved into 40+ or 45 territory for you yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Burrows is a reliever so the 45 FV tier is set-up man territory. Don’t think I’d go that far with Burrows but if you told me he became a multi-inning guy, or someone who gets turned to in important middle inning moments I’d 40+ him. Health is a component here, too.

Darren: Pratto—what would you need to see from him to bump him to a 50FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think I’m just gonna hold him where he is. To be a 50 at 1B is asking a lot, I think my current report holds up.

Eric A Longenhagen: Really curious what zips thinks of him now, tho.

Griff: Samad Taylor: thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol, I watched him a bunch over the winter in Australia and though he barely looked like a prospect and now he’s absolutely crushing it. I talked about him with a scout this week and we both were totally flummoxed by what’s going on. He definitely needs re-evaluation but, based on my winter look, I’m skeptical.

Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: Is Josh Lowe’s stock rising or holding so far this year? Love the average (cant imagine its sustainable) but its been great to see. Is he creeping close to the 55FV range at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’ll just leave him near the top of the 50s. He’s going to K a lot in the big leagues and might have some leaner years because of that. Remember FV is trying to generalize performance during pre free agency years, so the ebb and flow of a player like that regresses him to the mean. He might have a 5 WAR season in him, though.

Tim: Eric, A chat or two back, you mentioned Manuel Mercedes was “blowing the doors off”. Ok to ask you to expand a little on that?  Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, wrote a full report here and added my video. Daily Prospect Notes: 6/3/21 | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Scout I spoke with at the field yesterday said he was the best arm he saw out here during his 10-day stay.

Shiva: Surprising that Caleb Kilian isn’t on the Giants BOARD. He’s able to throw a variety of fastballs and has limited walks and HRs in his minor league tenure. What’s your evaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Made a phone call on him this week and revisited my notes from the Fall, too. I had 91-93 with carry, shapely low-70s curveball too slow to have real impact, short slider with distinct shape but not a lot of movement, fringe change. His pitch data from this year indicated the same thing. I don’t know how he’s dominating like this because neither the eyeball eval nor the pitch data piece suggests he should be. I think I’d rather lean on those than just his results.

Fred: Is there any indication the O’s would take Leiter or Davis or are they dead set on cutting a deal no matter who is available at pick 5?

Eric A Longenhagen: We think there’s a chance that they’d just take someone who fell to them if a top 3 player on their board got there.

Purple Mays Haze: In the minor leagues, if a pitcher is “enhancing” his arsenal with tacky substances, does the parent club “know”? What’s the chance that an MLB club mistakenly thinks their pitching prospect is doing better than they “actually are”?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. I’d bet the answer is pretty variable, and it depends on who in the org you talk to. I bet a GM is less likely to know if a prospect, even a top one, has been using. The pitching coordinators and coaches are the most likely

Kate: Does Greg Jones need to cut the K rate in order to keep moving up the org ladder?  Or is this something where he needs to be at a more challenging level to be forced to make an adjustment like that?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the latter. He had some support when we updated the 100, actually.

Jeff: How does Elijah Green compare to Harper at similar stages in development? Is Elijah more or less likely to go 1.1 than Harper was a year before his draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Harper was as close as we’ll find to power hitting christ. Green is very exciting but Harper was a slam dunk generational type, there’s definitely a gap there.

Reginald Jackson: Stephen Ridings has been dominant at AA. With the triple digit fastball, is this a guy who could be a 35+ or “other prospect of note” if the control gains (1.06 BB/9) last through the summer?

Eric A Longenhagen: yep, he’s one I have yet to ask around on. Saw he’s dominating.

FatGreenPuppet: I enjoyed your Twitch discussion with Kevin in the archive and would really like to watch a two hour Twitch mock draft discussion.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’ll eventually record most of the longer calls we make and maybe release them as part of patreon perks for KG’s pod or something? I think you’ll eventually get something close to what you desire.

Jim: Hey Eric, thanks for all the work you all do, super fun to read about this stuff. Saw that Roasny Contreras got a revision on the latest board, any comments as to how “real” this looks to you, or what might be different with him this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Velo has exploded without taking away from the strikes, he’s held it since he arrived in camp. That’s basically it.

Nashville: Were you cringing as much as the rest of us watching Vandy push Jack Leiter over 120 pitchers? How do we continue to let college coaches abuse kids like this? Especially right before the draft.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, he was on like 8 days rest.

Henry: Is Soderstrom untouchable? Would the A’s move him to acquire maybe Story + Gray?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d try really hard not to move him. You’d have to be very confident you could immediately optimize Gray to even consider that, I think.

Erik: How much does defense at 1B matter? If you take two 1B prospects who would be 50s with average defense but boost one guy’s defense to 80 while the other guy’s drops to 20, how much does that affect their FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ooooh, that’s tough. My general feelings around 1B defense is that it’s more important than the general consensus, but people (especially analyst types) tend to think the opposite. I’d round the 20 defender down to the 45s, that guy sounds like a DH. The 80 defender I think just stays in the 50s, like I’d still just 50 Evan White I think.

Rich: Have you heard/seen anything different on Julio Rodriguez? I know the results have been great – but has he improved his process at all since AZL/winter ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, same stuff. Which is fine, think we have him in a good spot.

Kate: For Cavalli, are you more concerned about the command or the injury risk?

Eric A Longenhagen: injury

Resolution: Do you feel the industry has generally been moving away from pitcher height as meaningful? I get that taller pitchers release the ball closer to home but there’s a lot of “pitcher X [never been injured] is 5’11” and considered an injury/reliever risk” opposite “pitcher Y at 6’5” should be a workhorse starter in the rotation [as soon as he returns from major arm injury]” in scouting reports despite all pitchers just getting injured.

Eric A Longenhagen: It doesn’t feel like the industry is but I know I am. Shorter pitchers are more likely create flat, power pitcher’s angle on their fastballs, their shorter levers mean less stress on their elbow (theoretically, since the formula for torque includes distance from the fulcrum), and they tend to be more athletic (though that’s probably selection bias).

Eric A Longenhagen: All that is to say, give me Ronny Henriquez long before Noah Murdock.

Jill Bames: Who will be five best position players of the 2020s by WAR, when all is said and done? Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr, Franco, Soto? Or do you think someone else will sneak in, even Trout?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d put Will Smith in as a dark horse name, just because his playable power for that position is so rare. Verdugo maybe a sleeper, too.

barrust: What are your thoughts on catchers who play multiple positions. I am thinking Willians Astudillo, Brett Sullivan, and Ford Proctor types. Does this help allow a team to carry a third catcher since they can get at bats in other places?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m all for it, esp once we have universal DH and the catcher becomes the player most likely to be pinch hit for.

Shnooker: Thanks for all your work.  Love to look at it prior to going to minor league games.  Been eagerly awaiting the Brewers prospect update.  Any news or update you can share on Payton Henry?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had a scout who saw Biloxi a couple weeks ago tell me he thought Henry should be competing for big league reps within the year, at least a high-probability backup

Eric A Longenhagen: there’s disagreement about him vs Feliciano, long term.

Brujhaha: First of all thanks for your recommendation on brujan for years…got him cheap in dynasty 3 years ago

Eric A Longenhagen: de nada, surely i wasn’t alone tho

CB: Have Delvin Perez or Nick Plummer (both STL-AA) revived their prospect stock at all this year? They both seem to be, like, actually producing (finally).

Eric A Longenhagen: Right? I think Delvin is pretty likely to have some sort of big league utility at this point, at least in the role you see Sosa playing now. Plummer is a big shrug at the moment. I loved him in high school and know that fate has not been kind to his career, but it has been so long since he performed at all.

Billy G: Is Dylan Smith a top 2 round arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for me, but we have him in the mix not long after. He could def go in the second, though, just feels more like a 3/4 rd guy to us.

Eric A Longenhagen: I know Keith loves him

Jimmy Foxxalorian: Yes, but can we please talk about Kyle Schwarber now? 12 HR in last 13 games :-0

Eric A Longenhagen: I think my takeaway here is that the guys who perform in a big way early during their pre-arb years and end up with big arb numbers, then have a bad year and get non tendered, are the sandbox you wanna be playing in as a big market team. Like this dude was a top 5 pick (under slot but still) and legit big league lineup anchor who the Cubs non-tendered. If we’re breaking down non tendies, this is the kind I’d wanna pursue. Epic heater from Schwarber right now.

Don Jenver: Will Justin Bullock (48 K vs 6 BB in 36 IP) & Carlos Luna (19 K vs 2 BB in 14 IP) be on the Brewers list? They’ve been fun box score follows this year & combined for a no hitter a couple weeks ago.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have notes on Bullock (he’ll be on there) but nada on Luna, so thanks for the tip.

Ryan: I’m surprised Corbin Carroll didn’t slip out of the 60 FV tier because of his injury. Could you provide some insight into that decision? He’s losing a whole year of development, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: He is, and when I saw him at Chase two Fridays ago he was still in a sling. But ultimately, I think that guy is going to be maybe the best leadoff hitter in baseball and so I don’t wanna move off of him.

Erik: I didn’t realize how much of a grown man Wander Franco already was. How does his risk to move off SS compare to other young players at the position?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s more than 50% that he ends up playing 2B most of the time because of what you said and because of his arm utility. He likes to take an extra step or two to really get into his throws, and there are guys who play SS who don’t have to do that.

Dudez: Bubba Thompson – former 1st rounder who has been lost to injury every year is healthy and seems to be breaking out at AA. Can a Rangers fan hope? Do you think this is sustainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sadly, I do not. The K’s are still a big issue. I hope I’m wrong, Bubba seems like a great young man who loves baseball.

Bad pun: Whats the TEMPEture there 😉

Eric A Longenhagen: only 105 today, I’ll take it

Ben: What do you think about Tyler Whittaker?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not for me, don’t think he’ll hit. Big power/speed/frame tho

siegfried: any thoughts on Hiura?  what a mess!!!

Eric A Longenhagen: Danny Zips and I actually talk about him on FG Audio, so give that a listen. Short answer: I’m perplexed and he and Carter Kieboom have caused me to re-evaluate how I think about hitters who swing like they do

Zain: Is Tyler Black’s bat good enough to warrant a 1st round pick if he only profiles as a 2b?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s one of the guys who gets mentioned when KG and I asked scouts which college bats will sneak into the back of rnd 1

Billy G: No Jonah Bride or Max Schuemann even on the “Org Guys” part of the A’s list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bride could have been since he’s a good gloved catcher

Thomas: You are GM of the team that drafts Henry Davis. Do you keep him at C for as long as you can or do you move him to RF to maximize his bat and get him to the bigs quicker?

Eric A Longenhagen: I try to catch him for at least the rest of ’21 and all of ’22 and then re-evaluate

Resolution: I’m generally concerned the move to an electronic strike zone is misguided. Just use pitch tracking info as feedback for umpires rather than eliminating that responsibility. Umpires are pretty good at calling balls and strikes and this seems like a drastic ‘solution’ that then reduces a catchers ability to provide value, potentially harms the stolen base since catchers can set up for the throw rather than receiving, and really dilutes homefield advantage. Talk me off this ledge please?

Eric A Longenhagen: I won’t because I’m with you. I also think the change from human strike zones to automatic along the dev timeline (whenever it occurs, either between the minors and majors or from college to pro ball eventually or whatever) is more of a potential issue impacting dev and scouting than MLB seems to think.

BB: Brayan Buelvas’ power has really come around in the last month or so. If the power and his frame continue to develop, is he someone who could reach 50 FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cal league caveats apply there, i think

Tom: Among the guys who seem to have been considered the top 5 (Meyer, Lawlar, Leiter, Rocker, Davis), is Rocker the most likely to slide?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eh, feedback from our first mock is that someone will pull the trigger before our parachute range (7 to 12). He throws shortly.

Havok: Bigger dissapointment: Vlad Jr not competing at the HR derby, or … Vlad Jr not participating in the HR derby?

Eric A Longenhagen: The derby isn’t for me anymore.

Doug: Kevin wrote yesterday praising the shape of Madden’s fastball, being the axis is very vertical. You have mentioned that he releases it from a steep approach angle, causing it to play down. On the other hands, the velocity is plus, but the raw spin is mediocre. Do all organizations value the merits of approach angle theory, does the hard data clearly bear it out, and would Madden be a prime example of there being disagreement in how well the current iteration of his fastball would play in pro ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: first Q: No, it’s def still a think valued by more prog clubs
2nd: the data does bear it out, and I think we have a correlation not causation situation with Extension as a result.
3rd: My Madden comment was based on visual eval not explicit approach angle data so I guess I don’t actually know

Eric A Longenhagen: But like, Sean Manaea doesn’t have good FB shape, but he does have good angle and he’s started to blow it past hitters at the top of the zone purely because of angle.

Guest: Any buzz on wilman diaz or Hebert perez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hedbert homered the other day, I haven’t been in to see Diaz yet.

Kate: Have you ever been to a game in Frederick, MD?  If so, thoughts on the park?  Contemplating meeting my dad there for a game rather than deal with the crowd (small as it may be) in Baltimore, but never been to the park and not sure what to expect.

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t been there but you should go. The answer to, “should I go to the baseball game?” is always yes.

Brett: Just based on pure talent/projections who would you take at #1 overall?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mayer, the guy ranked first on The Board

Italian beef w/ giardiniera: Owen Caissie is slugging, do you think he gets moved to the Minors soon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol, yeah I guess Phil was there yesterday wasn’t he? I think he stays in the AZL to start.

Justin: Have you seen Marcelo Mayer in person yet? Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, saw him as early as his sophomore year. He’s great. Smooth defender even though he lacks straight line speed. Proj lefty stick with hit/power combo. he’s good.

Tyler: Any word on how the AFL is going to run this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: not yet, I’m still scared there won’t be one ($) but KG is confident there will be

Billy G: Are Richard Guasch or Shohei Tomioka guys to follow for the A’s or are they strictly org guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: Guasch I’ve seen throw hard (some 96s) but that’s kinda it. Tomioka I haven’t seen.

Ryan: “I think a more interesting question is: why didn’t fans who regularly watch games on TV ever notice it was going on without being told?”

This is ridiculous

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not blaming them, I just think it’s the more interesting question. It’s another reason for me to lament everyone staring at their phones all the time, basically.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not like David Blaine is out there applying sticky stuff, you know? It’s been pretty obvious.

Eric A Longenhagen: Couple more here than I must go

Angels: How do hitters like Kieboom and Hiura swing?

Eric A Longenhagen: another topic of discussion on the pod.

Newb: What card do you hit the best  with so far this year in MLB The Show?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still just fire up MVP 05 when I wanna play a baseball video game

Uncle Spike: Thoughts on Johan Mieses and Trenton Brooks.  Both are 25 year old prospects that don’t have the best track record but are tearing up AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mieses’ power is real (also, #rig) but he’s more a injury depth/stopgap type than true prospect, Brooks a dug in college as a two-way guy but I haven’t seen him in a while. He’s worth sourcing on based on how he’s playing, I think.

Clint: No specific question, I just would like to see you chat about Gabriel Moreno please.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know what else to say. He was on the offseason 100, we were early compared to others and still too light.

CB: Which prospect unexpectedly falls to the Cardinals this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say….Bubba Chandler?

Guest: Do you a have a prospect “miss” that you think of often? How about a “hit” that you’re especially proud of?

Eric A Longenhagen: Way too light on Matt Olson. And no, I tend to focus on when I’ve fucked up rather than when I’m right.

barrust: So which one of the different multi-position catchers (Astudillo, Sullivan, Proctor, others?) do you prefer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Proctor

Dave C: Anyone in particular you’re really hoping to catch at this years Future Game?

Eric A Longenhagen: Orelvis Martinez

Josh R: DJ Peters became the 12th player from the Dodgers 2016 draft to reach the majors. A few of those are star level possibilities too in Will Smith, Dustin May, Gonsolin, Lux.  Is there any other draft you can recall similar to that only 5 years out?

Eric A Longenhagen: holy crap that’s incredible. No, I have no idea if there’s been a draft that good.

Craig: Hey Eric, thank you for the chat. I had seen that Max Ferguson was having a ROUGH start to the season, dropping his draft stock in a big way. Looking today, his stats are much better: 253/378/461. Stock rebounding some?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhat, and I would gladly buy low on him in the draft, but some of the OBP piece is because he’s borderline passive at the plate, def takes patience to the extreme.

Justin: What is being done to “fix” Mackenzie Gore? Or is it just a wait and see at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did have someone who saw them working on what they described as “working on his arm path”, we’re def in wait and see mode

Angels: How does quality of contact factor into the hit tool? Juan Pierre would have to have an 80 hit tool but the quality of contact was not good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. I thin it does factor in, but in a subjective way. Same as the way approach factors in

Jacques Pederson: Does Nolan Gorman ever play at 2B in the big leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, in the same way Muncy does where it’s situational/occasional.

Eric A Longenhagen: Muncy’s actions are great, though. That guy can turn the baseball around.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta split. Thanks to the very many of you who came today and for your questions. Hope everyone has a good weekend.