Eric Longenhagen Chat: 7/12/18

Eric A Longenhagen: Mornin’ from Tempe. Only link to plug today is this: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/early-2019-21-draft-rankings/

Beni and the Betts: Where would Clint Frazier rank on prospect lists if he were still eligible?

Eric A Longenhagen: A timely question as, while sourcing on NYY players for team list updates, I’ve asked on Frazier, who scouts still think is a 50.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, he’d be a 50 FV on the lists.

Chuck: For guys in the DSL and AZL, even GCL, at what point can you tell someone is a legit prospect? Obviously not everyone can see them in person, so much of it is stat line scouting or reading elsewhere.

Eric A Longenhagen: I see players myself and talk to scouts and front office people who have seen them or have info on them. No statline stuff, no reading elsewhere, all about evaluating the physical tools.

Matt: Do you find that high-level plate discipline is typically something hitting prospects develop late? If he initially looks a bit lost with higher level pitching, how concerning is that and what qualities can mitigate that concern?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s different, player to player. You can clearly see some players changing and adjusting in many different ways even late into their big league careers. Prospect plate discipline can be tough to scout because your looks at them are shorter than you’d need to evaluate such a thing and just looking at their walk rate could be misleading because minor league pitchers have worse control than big leaguers do.

Fangraphs reader: Is Joe Perez injured?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s Astros RHP/3B prospect Joe Perez who began his pro career this season after returning from TJ. Plus power, plus arm, could spin a breaking ball as an amateur (actually had some of the better spin rates in his high school class). I’ve noticed he hasn’t played in a while but don’t know if he’s hurt (though I assume so) nor what might be wrong.

JH: It seems like most top-100 prospects don’t get bounced around between AAA/MLB the way Barreto has this year. Usually teams hesitate to bring up a top guy unless he’s going to play every day. Are the A’s souring on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: They did the same thing with Olson. I don’t think it’s great for the player but I don’t think it’s a sign they’ve soured on him.

Igiloo McDaichly: I’ve seen some positive comments from you about Yerry Rodriguez‘s performance in the AZL.  He’s not been on the prospect map even among Rangers prospect watchers…is this NP with good command carving up teenagers, or is Yerry someone who is worth following?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is 20 y/o Texas righty Yerry Rodriguez, carving up AZL so far. He’s a prospect. Part of why I live in AZ is so I can see these guys in person and know if they’re dudes or not right away. Rodriguez is a dude. 90-95, commands it, will show you a 6 changeup and 5 breaking ball but both sit a bit beneath that. Breaking ball plays up against righties because of his lower slot and will be fine if he’s locating it, which he seems likely to do as other aspects of his command are already in place. Wouldn’t call him a high ceiling guy, but he’s a good prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s his player page with links to where I’ve written on him so far: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa918130&position=P

christian: Do you think the uptick in Gavin Lux‘s power is sustainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s Dodgers SS prospect Gavin Lux, a former glove-first first round HS shortstop suddenyl hitting for power in the Cal League. Some of it is driven by the hitting environment but there has also been a change in his batted ball profle that indicates a swing change has been made, and some of this is probably real. Groundball rate has dropped from 53% to 40%.

The CL: What’s your hot take on Sean Guilbe, stealth-signed by San Diego out of the 12th round?

Eric A Longenhagen: (Screaming like the High Heat guy)
SEAN GUILBE IS A RAW MIDDLE INFIELDER WITH PLUS BAT SPEED AND A HIGH-RISK CONTACT PROFILE

XXXXyyyy: Frainyer Chavez — name to know, or just a guy having a couple of good weeks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Another Rangers AZL kid. Was a late round pick (22nd round? 28th round? I forget) out of a Texas JUCO. He was born in Venezuela but fled here with his family to avoid religious persecution in his home country. I like him. He’s small, but the swing works and he has good pop for his size, feel for all-fields contact. Looks more like a utility type right now, but that’d be a great outcome for a pick that late.

Mark: How do you like what Ian Anderson is doing in high A?

Eric A Longenhagen: How could anyone not like it?

Pio: Lauer hit 95 a couple times yesterday and topped out at 96. Is this new for him or has he always had that kind of heat ready?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s new. His velo has pretty clearly been ticking up throughout the year. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=19316&position=P&pitchg…

Kiermaierkegaard: Keon Broxton is credited for 10 DRS this season in 89 innings (only 13 games!). Crazy/SSS? and can the Brewers turn him into a viable trade chip for Machado/deGrom?

Eric A Longenhagen: Small sample, but he is a plus defensive CF. I guess I’d consider him a piece because I think he’s a viable big leaguer, but realistically he’s a 40, maybe a 45. So not a centerpiece.

Jake Junis Priest: Are there take-aways from the MiLB all star games or are they just for fun?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s nice to see pitchers air it out for an inning and see what happens to the stuff when they do it. It’s also nice to watch a higher concentration of talent take BP in succession.

Greg: How much differently should a player like Brewer Hicklen be evaluated since he was a multi-sport athlete for so long? Generally a 22yo in A ball is rather uninteresting, but it seems like he could have a pretty high ceiling

Eric A Longenhagen: Royals OF prospect Brewer Hicklen, two-sport guy at UAB (sorta) who was a top 100 draft guy for me last year (https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2017mlb&type=0&pos=all…) and who is having a good season (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-7-5/)  … just provides context for the eval. If you see someone like that and think he has deficiencies, it’s imporant to note there might be a reason, independent of talent, he has them.

Robb Nen’s labrum : Where would you rank Luciano in the Giants Prospects list?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s $2.6mil SS/oF Marco Luciano, who the team signed on July 2. He was a 45 FV on the international list and will be one on the Giants team list, which means he’s in the 3-5 range in the system.

Bo: Do you see Gohara in the Braves rotation as soon as next season? Any chance he works his way back in this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea, just think it’s a lost year for the kid, through no fault of his own.

Pio: Is Lucchesi on a innings count or is going deep into games going to be an issue for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seems like there’s hesitancy to use the whole repertoire, and I expect it’ll be the latter until that changes.

Purple Mays Haze: Watching Enyel De Los Santos‘ MLB debut, he ‘shortarms’ the ball. How much does that influence a scouting report (and what does it influence)? Injury proneness, lower perceived velo, ability to repeat delivery, ability to stay as an SP?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lower perceived velo if he truly doesn’t get great extension (and I’d say this is true of De Los Santos), wouldn’t worry about the injury stuff until an individual actually gets hurt a bunch.

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually looked at his MLB page and did a statcast search and they don’t have Enyel’s extension or perceived velo up yet, which is a bummer. Did they just take all that stuff away? I really dug that.

Meck: The Wilmington Blue Rocks had 4 blown saves last night, and won. That’s impressive

Eric A Longenhagen: That was last night’s weirdest box score

Eric A Longenhagen: in the minors

Mountie Votto: Could Shed Long handle CF? I feel like everything but the arm would easily play there

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it. 2B has a lower offensive bar than CF, so that’d be a move down the defensive spectrum. I know Scooter has been very good and you’re right to be thinking ahead to try to get all these pieces to fit, but probably too early to consider moving anyone.

Seanto: Regarding Jesus Aguilar, what is it that you think scouts missed? Missed your top 18 for the Indians in 2016. 1B only certainly knocks him down, but what is he doing differently in the bigs that he’s so much more successful?

Eric A Longenhagen: NO idea what he has changed. There are 1B-only guys who get passed around MLB like this every year, whether it’s Christian Walker or Adam Brett Walker or whomever. Once in a while, they turn into this, late. There’s always one who figures it out.

Mike: Is Nicky Lopez a prime candidate to see his power numbers spike at the Major league level? Unbelievable contact rates all throughout the minors, outside shot at stardom if he develops some power

Eric A Longenhagen: Royals MIF Nicky Lopez, whose skillset is much more stable (but less explosive) than Raul Adalberto Mondesi’s. I like Nicky and think, yeah, there’s a chance the big league ball helps him if it continues to be hitter-friendly.

Sharp: Who should I be most excited about watching at the Futures Game on Saturday?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna see Seuly launch one and Hunter Greene touch 102.

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, the Futures Game rosters have their own page on The Board: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018futures&type=0&pos…

Slothrop: are big hands a turn off for pitching prospects? like Kawhi-sized hands

Eric A Longenhagen: No, but all the research I’ve read on hand size/finger length shows no correlation between that stuff and spin or anything else related to pitch efficacy.

Eric A Longenhagen: Though I still think long fingers are better for throwing a splitter and I doubt enough split guys have been studied in this regard to dismiss or conclude that.

Sandy Eggo: Fill in the blank. Luis Urias makes his MLB debut on ______

Eric A Longenhagen: 9/2

Steve: What do you think of Luis Patino?

Eric A Longenhagen: Padres righty, 6′, crazy athlete, 18 and pitching well in Low-A. 94-97, chance for plau breaking ball, everything else projects because of his athleticism. He’s a lot of fun and quite good. Was a 40 FV on the Padres list entering the year, probably a 45 now.

Paul: What have you heard about Ronny Mauricio so far this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mets SS Ronny Mauricio, still just 17 and hitting in the GCL. Same as before he signed. Feel to hit from both sides of the plate, including some feel for airborne contact, lots of room on the body, chance he grows into power and stays at short.

Max: The Angel’s farm system seems to be a bright spot this year despite a mostly disappointing season. Have you heard anything about a change in approach to developing players? I’m thinking specifically about the breakouts (numbers wise) from Ward, Thaiss, and Rengifo. Do you buy any of those hitters as legit major league pieces?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ward (a former first round C who has had crazy peripherals due to a unique;y conservative approach to contact, is hitting better and has moved to 3B) and Thaiss (first round 1B with contact skills, little in-game pop) have both changed their swings and are different players. Rengifo’s stock is also up, but I haven’t heard or seen a mechanical change there.

ZZ Bottom: What’s one small thing you’d like that would make your job a whole lot easier?

Eric A Longenhagen: A spreadsheet with all minor league Trackman data

Charlie Kelly: Luis Oviedo is off to a hot start and pre-season reports (both here and elsewhere) seemed to think he had the raw ingredients to start. Any word as to whether his stuff has made a jump or is this what was expected at this level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Indians teenage RHP Luis Oviedo, more here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-7-5/ and on the Indians list. Stuff is about the same as last year, which is to say it’s still quite good. 90-94, touch a bit higher, four pitch mix with a 55 breaking ball. Chance to be a mid-rotation guy.

Steve: What happened to Jhaliyn Ortiz this year? He posted big numbers as an 18 year old in the college heavy NYPL last summer but his stats have completely tanked in full season ball this year. He was someone I thought could take a big step up the rankings this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Big money Phillies July 2 guy from a few years ago. Has/had huge power but is already bigger than Jose Abreu at age 19. Raw power is still there. I don’t love the bat path, though. I think he’s a high risk prospect. The power to profile at first is there, I think there’s reason to be skeptical of the bat, but there was last year too when the stats looked good.

Fangraphs reader: Who is your guess at the best prospect traded this month?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is just an educated guess/speculation, not something I have info on, but I’ll say Francisco Mejia.

Moltar: I know he’s not known for his defense, but could Jeff McNeil play third base at least as well as 2018 Jose Reyes can?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure.

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, has anything ever been more Mets than fans fretting over whether a 26 year old can be a 4 at third base?

Zack: How down are you on Heliot Ramos right now? He’s still very young at 18 but his season has been pretty disappointing considering all the helium he had coming into the year, off that big stint in the AZL last year with some glowing scouting reports. I think one even joked he had more tools than Home Depot. I thought he was one of those guys who could shoot way up the lists this year to top 25 territory.

Eric A Longenhagen: Feel like I answer this one every week. I’m not sweating it.

David: I know they are not top 100 Prospects (as the Mariners have none), but are Evan White and Kyle Lewis are trending up / down? It seems like Lewis may not be the 5 tool prospect he had the ceiling to be and Evan White has an odd toolset for first base. Any Mariners prospects seeing large increases in value?

Eric A Longenhagen: Up. White is hitting, Lewis is healthy.

Scot: I expected to see an Oregon State pitcher named Abel on the 2020 draft board, but not the one actually listed.  Kevin Abel looked so great during the CWS… is his smallish frame dropping him down the board?

Eric A Longenhagen: He *pitched* great, and we talked about him, but he was 88-91. I just didn’t feel good about tossing a guy with a 40 fastball on a list that’s just the best handful of guys right now. Especially given how he was used during the CWS. His secondary stuff is very good and he might be a first rounder in three years, just don’t think he stacks up in the top 20-25 guys right now.

Whirled Series: Which team’s prospect system has made the biggest jump from preseason strength to now? Which has made the biggest slide?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess, off the top of my noggin, Red Sox have taken a hit. TJ for Groome, roids suspension for Chavis, not much upward movement throughout the system.

Eric A Longenhagen: Reds have added a ton of interesting depth among the guys I have 37-40 FVs on (basically low-level sleepers types), Kansas City has added, too. Also Houston’s ability to coax the most out of pitchers by improving spin efficiency and pitching approach is noticeable (Bielak, Solomon, James, like 5 other guys)

Pete: When’s the last time a team has mishandled a key prospect the way the Marlins have with Brinson? I could see letting him try and fail for the first month, but at that point, don’t you have to send him down to work out his issues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d argue that what Brinson needs to learn/adjust to must be accomplished against big league pitching. Send him down and he’s just gonna rake. You can only adjust to big league pitching if you see it.

Donnie: Thoughts on Uber prospect Miguel Sano?

Eric A Longenhagen: Does Uber have a farm system now?

Mark: Has Will Smith passed Keibert Ruiz? Should he be Austin Barnes‘ backup to open next season? Does he make trading Keibert/Verdugo/+Others for DeGrom more palatable?

Eric A Longenhagen: ….

Joe: Isaac Paredes has been handling A+ well for a 19 year old. As an above average hitting SS, is it likely he’s more of a 50+ FV player than 45 as he currently is?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t consider him a shortstop but agree that he has been impressive. Tracking exactly as anyone could have hoped.

John: Other sites still seem to be including Alex Reyes on prospect lists. Do you believe he has graduated?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s thrown exactly 50 big league innings so, yes.

Maples: You prefer Corey Ray or Daz Cameron long term in fantasy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Daz

RW: Do you know anything about the Padres Tucapita Marcano?  Seems like he’s got good contact skills.  Much power potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little AZL shortstop. Maybe utility guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: Padres

Jake: How excited should I get about Jhon Torres?

Eric A Longenhagen: Indians teenage OF prospect in AZL. More excited than the other recent power-hitting OFs they’ve had down here. He’s quite good. Chance to get to plus power in games, play a solid corner OF spot.

graduated: any thoughts on david dahl? he graduated so quick from prospect lists and has been out for 2 years, curious if you have an opinion

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, saw him a bunch in the spring and the tools are still there (plus power and run) but I think he’s a 4 bat. Prefer Tapia to him, but I like both in general.

Sparhawk: Cristian Pache has about a 4% walk rate. Why don’t organizations teach more plate dicipline and working deeper counts at the lower levels?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’d counter by asking you *how* you’d go about teaching it? Other than saying “hey, take more pitches.”

Jimmy Joe: Would a MLB team ever sign and use a female college softball all-star pitcher with the intent of messing up hitters eye level when she throws under-handed? Is that even allowed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think softall pitching and throwing a baseball underhanded from 60ft away are more different than you realize.

Eric A Longenhagen: But, hey I have a question for y’all in this vein:

Eric A Longenhagen:

Tim: What’s the industry chatter on how much of a long term concern Carter Stewart’s wrist really is?

Eric A Longenhagen: Only the Braves know, they’re the ones who flunked the physical.

Nick: So it looks like Ryan Mountcastle keeps on hitting. Any updates on his future defensive home?

Eric A Longenhagen: LF

Jake: Can you throw some names out of prospects in the low-minors currently that are fringe top 100-200  that you could potentially see in the top 20 in 2020 or 2021

Eric A Longenhagen: I would just comb our lists for young 45 FV guys on The Board

Ford: Are the Angels running out William English as a hitter? He’s recorded 20 PA, but I thought he was drafted as a pitcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was but the kid has some desire to hit and is gonna be on an innings limit anyway, so this is fine.

Kris in Seattle: Why would an analytically inclined team like Houston cut two farm teams (DSL, Appy)? Kiley had no idea. And if you have no idea, any way you guys can use your sources to find out why because this flies in the face on modern thinking, especially for a team that has many late round and cheap IFA success stories floating around MLB and MiLB like Altuve, Devenski, Tyler White, Josh James, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: To save money

Gest : Why isn’t the splitter more popular amongst American amateur pitchers?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a stigma against it as it pertains to arm health which, so far as I know, is just anecdotal.

Sean: Is Seuly Matias for real with his power? Think he is tops in minors for HR this season.  Think he can hit for average too??

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh it’s real power. Average hit? Probably not. Still could get to that power, though. Joey Gallo was a 3 WAR guy last year as a .209 hitter.

Jon: Is it possible for a guy to have a tool 4 standard deviations above the mean? Have you ever considered giving a guy an 85 or 90 tool?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s just noise

Lou: How much history is there of guys improving their slider while already in the MLB? I’m thinking specifically of Luis Castillo who has great changeup feel but he doesn’t look like he has feel for a slider and I’m wondering how much hope there is that it can become competitive.

Eric A Longenhagen: Luis Severino was a fastball/changeup guy with a hard cutter a couple years ago and now throws friggin 80 sliders. It’s possible to alter that stuff. It takes several steps of identification, implementation, the player has to buy in and be able to physically make adjustments. But it’s possible

Bill: Does Tebow make the majors in the next year or two? Has to be exceed many expectations so far

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m impressed with how well he has played, though he hasn’t played well when compared to other minor leaguers. Because of his age, he’s far less relevant for the purposes of our evaluation than he is culturally, and that’s okay. He’s 30 in Double-A and slugging under .400. I bet he gets to the bigs, and it’ll be kind of a sideshow that I have mixed feeling about, but he’s not a relevant prospect who has on-field big league value.

Bun B: Who the sh** is Miguel Vargas?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol, Vargas is a Cuban infielder in the Dodgers system with some strength-driven power. Needs better lower half incorporation to hit for power in games but the Dodgers coaches were literally asking him to make changes during the games I saw him play to try to coax it out of him. Probably a 3B/1B, gonna be a tough profile, but he’s interesting. Maybe a 40 FV by the end of the year.

Jake: Have you seen or heard anything on Tyler Freeman?

Eric A Longenhagen: Indians supplemental pick in last year’s draft. Saw a lot of him throughout extended. Reports are same as in HS, advanced bat, maybe he makes it work at SS, probably not much game power.

Can’t read good: Eric, wouldn’t it make more sense to have MLB rosters expand in July instead of September? can give some vets mid-season rest and showcase prospects heading into trade deadline

Eric A Longenhagen: Your reasons for it being beneficial are sound, but given the pace of games in September I think early expansion would create a vortex of social media complaints so vast that it’d be large enough to swallow a continent.

RyRy: As prospect fans, we are obviously interested in finding “the next big thing”.  New shiny things are fun.  BUT sometimes that can lead us to overvalue breakout prospects.  Do any of this year’s breakout prospects stick out to you as being overvalued by fans as the next impact guy when they more likely project as contributors?  Do any stand out to you as impact players?  Thanks!!!

Eric A Longenhagen: Henrik Clementina- no
Luis Rengifo – yes

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote this on a guy from each team to buy or not, it’s In$ider http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/23907191/mlb-breakout-m…

Sir Nerdlington: Cavan Biggio didn’t crack your 131, but he’s tapped into power and improved bb% this year.  Has he changed?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has changed but not enough to be a 50 FV. Probably not a 2B, still has some offensive issues. 40 FV, realistically.

Anthony: Are there specific things teams look for when scouting potential MLB trade acquisitions? Is there something a scouting report on JA Happ can tell you that his 10-year MLB career and Brooks Baseball can’t?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, especially with players like  Happ who have made subtle adjustments several times during that ten year career such that huge swaths of it are now irrelevant to what he is right now

Cole: Would INF Josh Rojas (HOU) be int he 40-45 range in an updated Astros list?

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Anchorage: Clarke Schmidt – thumbs up or thumbs sideways?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yankees 2017 first rounder just now starting to pitch after TJ. Thumbs up, stuff is back.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I must depart. I’ll be flying to DC tomorrow for the Futures Game then driving through the Northeast doing pro coverage before I head back to AZ, with a stop in Chicago on the way to see some 2019 draft guys. If you’re in DC, remember Keith and Jay have a book signing the day before Futures Game. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/jay-jaffe-and-keith-law-in… and I think several of us are going to be there for that, so come hang out.

Eric A Longenhagen: Until next week…