Eric Longenhagen Chat: 7/12/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. One link for you this morning:

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley and I podded about Futures Game. It’s a long episode in which we go over our notes and talk about Board changes. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdo…

Nick: I know you guys weren’t excited about the Braves draft after day two. With the six HS picks they’ve now signed from rounds 11-19, how significantly does that change things?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhat, they’re adding a bunch of 35+ FV types. Depth is nice, now they need to develop those players.

Chris: The Yankee fans sure think Clint Frazier is worth any player… What’s a realistic one for one trade comp for their fans

Eric A Longenhagen: I have Frazier 50’d, so I think he’s a real piece. Would he, alone, net someone like Matt Boyd or White Merrifield who has 3ish years of control left? Probably not, but he’s a great start.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Yankees will probably be looking to trade players who need to be on the 40-man sooner than later as they lack space

Curious: How can someone learn how to evaluate talent? Even just the basics.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley’s Scouting Explained series and Jason Parks’ essay in Extra Innings II are good places to start. Start going to games and taking notes.

Angel: What’s the Outlook on Edward Cabrera now? Starter path?

Eric A Longenhagen: Trending that way, certainly.

Katie: Is Jasseel De La Cruz a mid rotation arm now?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t believe so. We have him 40’d, projected as a reliever.

Ron: Who are a few prospects having underwhelming seasons so far, but who you expect to have a good 2nd half and strong 2020 season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess Jazz Chisholm, Tirso Ornelas come to mind

BeefLoaf: Are the White Sox a bottom 10 farm system once Robert and Madrigal graduate (in the first half of the 2020 season)?

Eric A Longenhagen: going to our spreadsheet right now…

Eric A Longenhagen: sorry, connectivity issues

Eric A Longenhagen: anyway, we have Chicago White Sox 11th right now, taking out two 55 FV hitters moves them down to 25th

Matt: Why does Luzardo get injured so frequently?

Eric A Longenhagen: there’s no earthly way of knowing

Nick: Any buzz on the high schoolers that were at All Star Weekend?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seeing what Ed Howard is capable of at SS was good, he’s stock up for me.

Chris: Is Jake fraley a candidate for the top 100 board when a few players graduate from it?

Eric A Longenhagen: We don’t have a 50 FV quota to fill or anything like that, players don’t just move up when others graduate. But he’s hitting well-enough that yeah, maybe he’s a 50. Still more of a tweener based on my looks this spring but if he hits enough, 6 bat or better, then that’s a regular.

Noah: This time next year do you think Brennen Davis can be a top 100 type prospect? The hit tool was the biggest question mark in his prospect write-up but has that improved with the swing change?

Eric A Longenhagen: Swing is still not great, but yeah. Has the kind of physical tools that, if the bat develops, he’s definitely 50 FVor better guy

BBB: Any new thoughts on Sam Huff?

Eric A Longenhagen: we go over them on the pod linked above. r/r 1B with huge power, 40 FV

Chris: What is going on with Cal Raleigh? Real deal or hot streak?

Eric A Longenhagen: Big-school college hitters *should* be crushing the Cal League

GPT: Giants have only one prospect with a 45+ FV grade. Any body with a lower grade in line to move up in the next update?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re not doing sweeping updates anymore, Board is living and breathing now. So anyone we see/hear about who needs to be updated will just move right then and there in real time. In short, when we wanna move a guy you’ll know we’ve moved him so long as ou’re following @fg_prospects on twitter

Ghelsson: I apologize if you’ve answered this before, but what factors allow a player to have a higher game power grade than raw power grade? I’ve tended to think of game power as the utilization level of raw power.

Eric A Longenhagen: quality of contact. Raw power = how far you hit the ball/how hard. Game power = production/how many bombs. Chris Davis has huge raw power but it’s playing below in games because he can’t hit. The same can be true on the other side of the hitting spectrum

Spider Puig: Do you have any info on Braylin Minier? He got $1.8m from the Reds but he wasn’t on any lists and no one seems to know who he is. How’d he get so much?

Eric A Longenhagen: My theory is that Alexander Vargas, who signed with NYY for (i think) $2.5mil last year, had a deal wit CIN for $3 mil this year but backed out to sign with NYY for a little less a year earlier. CIN had to scramble to put the money somewhere and ended up with lesser guys who didn’t already have deals.

David: What’s the deal with Jasson Dominguez? How large a grain of salt should we be taking the news on him with?

Eric A Longenhagen: well he’s already on our 100 and we first mentioned him months ago, so we’re clearl in

kevinthecomic: Just an interesting juxtaposition: what were Matt Weiter’s projections (let’s say peak and career WAR) at Andrew Knizner‘s age?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wieters’ projections were cartoonish

JC: Talk me down from being so excited about Jonathan Ornelas. Seems like there’s a chance for five tools at short and he’s holding his own in full season at 19.

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I’m excited too

Luca: The A’s have a tendency to have players perform above their prospect rankings (Chapman, Olson, Pinder, etc). Who amongst their minor leaguers do you see as capable of being able to outperform their prospect status someday? Thanks and keep up the great work.

Eric A Longenhagen: If you told me Daulton Jefferies was going to be healthy forever I’d say him.

Fred: Is Nick Allen a GUY?

Eric A Longenhagen: maybe Nicky, too

awg: thanks to the entire team for all the work. this repository of research and articles is really something else, and none of us should take its availability for granted.
to my q — with the imminent signings of Bleday and Misner, and the report from a local Florida paper that Bleday will be sent to Jupiter, was wondering if the Board (TM) will be updated with all the draftees’ level assignments soon.
Thanks again, kind and noble prospector.

Eric A Longenhagen: thanks, Kiley and I work hard to do all this stuff on our own and we’re glad you find it useful. The Board auto updates as soon as the player plays a game at that level.

James: Dodgers need a reliever. Any inhouse options they can look at, at this point? I’m tired of seeing a scenario to get an “elite” bullpen arm with a starting package of Dustin May and Gavin Lux. Thanks, Eric

Eric A Longenhagen: sure, they could ‘pen Gonsolin

tdawg56: Can you rank Balazovic, Graterol, May, Patino and Grayson Rodriguez?

Eric A Longenhagen: they’re ranked

David : Did you see robel Garcia in the minors? Thoughts on what he may be.

Eric A Longenhagen: i did not and have no idea. An exceptional situation. Hope he mashes, it’d be a great story.

David: With the Change to AAA Ball, are you expecting to see fewer in-season pitcher promotions from AA to AAA? Barring filling a need.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I don’t know how widespread it will be but I imagine some teams will want to avoid it. But also, it’s the big league ball and they may want them to start dealing with it now rather than in the big leagues.

Jose: Any thoughts on Andy Pages‘ rookie league performance so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: seems about right. Gotta be careful with PIO slugging

Trent: Where would Wander Franco go in Fangraphs’ Franchise Draft if the draft extended beyond one round?

Eric A Longenhagen: He went round 1 and I’m pretty sure I’d take him round 1 somewhere, probably in the 10-15 range, 12-20 range maybe

D Back Fan: Are you hearing good things about wilderd Patino?

Eric A Longenhagen: yerp: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

D Back Fan: Matt Tabor dominating. Any increased velo here?

Eric A Longenhagen: nope

Philip: Are you guys going to be doing updates throughout the season on prospect FV’s or not really?

Eric A Longenhagen: we shall

Anthony: Are you or Kiley planning a trip to the Cape in person this summer?

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it

v2micca: The Astros have a logjam in the Outfield and a desire to add to their Starting Pitching. Which sellers match up best with them?

Eric A Longenhagen: SFG (huge gap) then maybe BAL or Toronto?

Brian: Any pop-up prospects this season who you’d recommend for fantasy owners?

Eric A Longenhagen: The way I see it, we put out the buffet and you put what you want on your plate rather than have us bring you dinner.

Andrew: The Astros seem to have trouble developing starting pitchers through their farm system…McCullers (5 years ago) was the last one who’s had success…Appel and Martes flopped, Martin, James, C. Perez, Valdez have been bad at the MLB level this year, and Whitley and Bukauskas have been bad in the minors. Is this a fair assessment/worthy of concern or an overreaction?

Eric A Longenhagen: overreaction

Eric A Longenhagen: Appel was a softy, Martes was overrated, Martin went from college relief type to top 100 prospect then broke, James development into what he became is incredible considering what he was, Perez had a bad medical when he signed and still become something, Valdez signed at 22 and looks like a big league reliever

Eric A Longenhagen: you have to view outcomes in context with expectations

Anthony: If you think Lewis is unplayable at SS, do you anticipate knocking him down from #2 overall in your top 100 reevaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: no, he’ll be fine at either 2B or CF and league-wide SS wRC+ is actually higherthan you think right now

billsaints: Baseball has progressed in do many ways, but the US women’s soccer teams openness about their LGBTQ players and community highlighted how backward baseball (almost any male sport in fact) still is in that arena. It’s 2019 and we still have no openly gay players!

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, baseball is ultra-conservative

Eric A Longenhagen: but i expect this will change soon

Eric A Longenhagen: the openly gay player part, not the baseball poltical makeup part

Jasson: Any new news on Jasson Dominguez post signing last week? Not playing full season ball until next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: he won’t play an affiliated game this year and probably starts next year in extended. full season ball 2021 is the likely scenario

Matt: I’m surprised to see you guys having Casey Martin merely ranked 25th given the tools/stats profile, what are you skeptical about? Looks like a top 10 pick to me

Eric A Longenhagen: Ks

D: What do you make of Jarren Duran’s struggles at AA?

Eric A Longenhagen: talent-wise hes just okay

Bo: Does Luiz Gohara have any value as a trade chip? He’s still a top-100 on the Board, but seems to be headed nowhere.

Eric A Longenhagen: He does have value but less than his talent would in a vacuum, so I wouldn’t move him

v2micca: After a red-hot start, Braden Shewmake has come down to earth in recent games. Standard SSS variance, or are pitchers adjusting to him?

Eric A Longenhagen: SSS

Matt: I know you mentioned before you were intrigued by the Astros Myles Straw experiment at SS…any updated thoughts on that? Think he can play it well enough to be a decent utility guy moving forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: In case of emergency he can play there but I’d rather not let him do it. Glove in OF is so good that he’s a big league role player anyway.

Chris: Will the Padres hold the top spot in the farm rankings next year or will graduations bump them down a few spots?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have them as #2 right now

Eric A Longenhagen: about 120mil behind TB

Cheese: Brent Rooker putting up huge numbers. What keeps him back from MLB stardom?

Eric A Longenhagen: nodef value and mediocre breaking ball recog

Ben: Morosi speculated the Tigers could ask the Padres for one of Renfroe or Reyes in a Matt Boyd deal. If that’s the case, what does the rest of the package look like?

Eric A Longenhagen: idk but if one of those two are the best thing I give up then I’m very interested

Eric A Longenhagen: also, DET kinda has a lot of corner OFs who struggle to move around already, what do they want with Franmil unless they’re def to move Castellanos?

Kiley McJenner: Where’s the best source for stats of international signings at instructs?

Eric A Longenhagen: there isn’t one, stats aren’t kept

Roger: Are you a believer in what Garret Cooper is doing at the plate?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, we’ve been on him as a sleeper for a while now

Addison: What to make of Joshua Rojas? Can he be a super utility type at the MLB level?

Eric A Longenhagen: no but someone with a pro model might bite on him as a throw-in or something

Jackson: Over/under on career MLB at bats for Ibandel Isabel… 500.

Eric A Longenhagen: under

WiRSoxfan: With the Red sox signing Song, where would you rank him in the Sox system?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Oakland: Sheldon Neuse has destroyed AAA for 1 year (last half 2018 and first half 2019) but you guys have him 40 FV. What holds him back?

Eric A Longenhagen: we think he’s a JD Davis type of 3B/1B part-time bat

Ben: RE: your Clint Frazier response, can you name a couple of prospects who are approaching that 40-man crunch for the Yankees that you were referring to as possible chips?

Eric A Longenhagen: not off the top of my head, but if I wanted to I could comb through prospects’ player pages which now have Rule 5 years on there and I’d be able to find out

Logan: What current level would NY-Penn league be represented as on The Board? I was looking for prospects for either the Cards or Nationals a few weeks ago and found no one on The Board in the game I was watching.

Are their NY-Penn league teams just prospect-less or am I looking at this wrong?

Eric A Longenhagen: checking right now

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s A- on there. Cards have nobody at State COllege, guessing WAS has none at Auburn

David: Could you Define what you mean be a tweener? Fraley for example, is there concerns that he doesn’t have enough of certain tools to succeed?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tweeners typically lack no-doubt CF ability and power typical for a corner. Brett Gardner was/is a tweener. But his contact and OBP skills were incredible so he profile anyway. That’s the type of thing tweener tools guys need to have to suceed and sometimes it happens.

twinmh: Your Astros write-up lists Enoli Paredes with a 92-94 mph FB.
Watched him last week sitting 95-98 on the stadium radar. Step forward, or hot gun at the park?

Eric A Longenhagen: actually have fresh notes there, let me check for you

Eric A Longenhagen: will get back to this in a sec

DraftDog: What point do we start to identify a swing change? Is it when the batted ball profile shifts? Is it two weeks of good results, or is a scout look with in game access to a players swing plane an approach?

Eric A Longenhagen: batted ball profile shifts may be an indication of a changeandwe can then go check ourselves if there’s been one. SOmtimes we see it with our own eyes before we notice the data, or get told by a scout

Hello: Has Alonso’s defense been better/worse than expected?

Eric A Longenhagen: what i’ve seen has been about right. He;s a below avg 1B defender

Matt: Have any updated thoughts on Seth Beer? I feel like I keep having nightmares of AJ Reed whenever I try to get hyped for his recent success

Eric A Longenhagen: I share your trepidtion

Eric A Longenhagen: sorry for the typos, I’m on a tablet with the internet out

No Way Jose: Is the expectation that Tyler Freeman will slow down once he reaches AA, or are we nearing labeling him as a 50 FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: the latter

Kris: What is a realistic ceiling for Mario Feliciano?

Eric A Longenhagen: everyday catcher

Kris: How much reliever-risk is there with Jhoan Duran?

Eric A Longenhagen: i don’t think there’s a ton

Eric A Longenhagen: back to Enoli Paredes: I’ve got him 93-97 touching 99 this year, so stuff is up

WeeJee: I know he’s putting up great numbers, but what does Marco Luciano look like to your trained eye?

Eric A Longenhagen: elite body and bat speed, maybe ot a SS long term

PT: Have you seen Triston McKenzie down there? Is he throwing yet? Been tough to find anything on him. Any ETA?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m similary frustrated. He’s definitely down here, though.

Smiley McFriendhole: At what point do you at least consider moving a prospect’s ETA? I’m wondering if guys like Patino and Grayson Rodriguez are on track to debut before 2023 as listed.

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s really just a 40-man timeline that we maybe shift case by case

Llewelyn: If Franco keeps hitting this good or better the rest of the season and makes it to at least double-A, does he have a shot at an 80 future value?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

romorr: So we are over half way through the MiL season, would you say the Orioles system as a whole has had a good year, more so in the pitching department?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes. Baumann and Rom especially

yhency : is fangraphs doing this franchise player draft in lieu of the trade value series?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, Kiley is working on that as w speak

Padres458: Have you seen Abrams? Will he get promoted to a fort wayne this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: i have. Maybe late August? Not enough that it’ll matter, could just be a reward for crushing rookie ball

Bubba: How often is THE BOARD! updated? Can there be a little note on top indicating to readers when the last update was?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s sometimes updated several times a day. follow the propects twitter account for updates until we figure out a way to note it on the site

j: What is the state of the Yankees’ farm system this year? Trending up or down?

Eric A Longenhagen: amazing depth at lowest levels, if it were a stock I’d buy all i could of NYY system right now

Danny: What are your thoughts on the Baty-Wolf-Alan haul for the Mets?

Eric A Longenhagen: a little less diversity of risk than is ideal but got two first roud talents

AOC: Abolish the draft!!! Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: seems reasonale for people to pick their employer

Jim: Is there actually any correlation between pitcher size and how prone to injury they are or is it just a narrative made up by the less analytic folk?

Eric A Longenhagen: imo the latter

Eric A Longenhagen: torque is a measure of stress on the arm, lever length is a variable in that equation, longer-armed pitchers (ie taller ones) have longer levers. There’s a chance shorter pitchers are actually better bets to stay healthy

Eric A Longenhagen: okay i’ve gotta go, thanks for coming, see you next Friday