Eric Longenhagen Chat: 7/26/18

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi hi hi. There are many trades happening and I need to write them up, so we’re gonna keep things tight to an hour today. Off we go…

2:02
Lilith: Tony Santillan seems to be have a very under the radar great year. What else does he need to do to get on some top 100 lists?

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s Reds  2015 2nd rounder who had huge stuff (upper 90s, plus breaker) but was very wild as prep and early as pro. I agree the strike-throwing has been encouraging. Can’t speak for other outlets but he’s close to a 50 FV for us already.

2:03
LioneeR: Touki has taken off a bit this year.  I saw reports saying that he wasn’t allowed to use certain pitches in order to work on his changeup.  Does that happen a lot with prospects, or is it just certain teams?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Certain teams are more strict with pitch usage as part of development than others but this type of thing is common to some extent.

2:04
Chris : The Padres should not start trading prospects for Archer or Syndergaard right?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t go nuts trading for Archer. Syndergaard I might.

2:04
Abe: Doughnuts or doughnut holes?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Glazed buttermilk donuts

2:05
Aaron: Health aside, what’s Sam Carlson’s ceiling?

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Mariners overslot 2nd rounder from last year, has barely pitched in pro ball due to injury, just had TJ. Realistically he’s a #3/4. In HS he was 88-92 as a rising senior then 92-95 as a senior, threw strikes, feel for breaking ball and change, great build, great athlete. I was all in.

2:06
Randy Burgess: What’s the early FV outlook on Robert Puason? There have been hints about him as the top Intl prospect for 2019.

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: We have a 50 on him on our 2019 J2 board, which I don’t think we’ve publicized. Think it’s OAK, $5 mil.

2:06
Bernie: Is Will Craig a prospect? He is showing real power at AA. That being said, I’m wondering if the poor contact will prevent him from much of a chance in MLB.

2:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Pirates 1st rd 1B/3B/RHP from Wake Forest in 2016. I’m not a huge Craig fan but the uptick in power production is encouraging. Still just a 40 FV for us though. JD Davis type of player.

2:08
Nick: I know his bat speed draws rave reviews – but have you seen Canario up close with the Giants? is he a FV50?

2:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Alexander Canario, AZL OF, I ranked him #2 on Giants list entering the year. No, as you can see on the Giants list he’s a 45 FV. Yes it’s elite bat speed on a teenager, he’s a bucket strider with swing length and needs a lot of work but I’ll take a teenager with that kind of whip.

2:09
Dusty (Denver): What have you heard thus far on Julio Pablo? Stat line looks strong, but I suspect he’s quite old for his level?

2:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Cuban OF Julio Pablo Martinez, Rangers 2017 July 2 signee as consolation prize for Ohtani. Plus run, fine in CF, game power is going to be limited, has enough contact ability as to be a viable everyday prospect but it’s not elite on base/leadoff type of skills. He’s fine, not spectacular. Maybe average everyday guy.

2:12
Blackburn: Hypothetical. What would Felipe Vazquez fetch at the trade deadline?

2:14
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s 4 yrs/$22M with team options in ’22 and ’23, has had a TJ. Probably a lot? More control than Hand. The problem is relievers are clearly more valuable to contending teams so the market would be limited to teams who think they’re contending for that stretch of time, which could me limited.

2:14
Justin: When do the updated Prospect lists come out?

2:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Next couple days, probably Monday.

2:14
AJ: HI Eric.  Reports that the White Sox will get Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez from the Brewers for Soria.  Thoughts on the return?  Thank You.

2:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Tweeted something but Kodi is 88-92, low slot, 4 command, 6 breaking ball. lefty specialist type. Perez is 88-91, cutter, chance for above avg curveball, change. Fringe prospect but a prospect.

2:15
Frank: Does Kingery still have 60 hit/50 power FV or has that changed now? Does his 2017 power outburst seem like an outlier now?

2:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m stil on him but they need to stop trying to shoehorn guys at positions they can’t play, and he’s one of them.

2:16
Alan: Does Vidal Brujan have enough pop to survive at higher levels? I could be wrong, but Jose Ramirez aside I feel like the track record of undersized, high-OBP, low-SLG guys in the low minors isn’t great.

2:17
Eric A Longenhagen: Rays 2B prospect, plus athlete, plus run, contact, approach. Hitting well at Low-A but without much pop. We’ve been heavy on Brujan for a while, I think a .400 SLG is fine for someone his age in full-season ball

2:18
Nate: I know his numbers are down, but the development of Heliot Ramos has been somewhat encouraging to me as a Giants fan. He’s walked more and lowered the K rate. Do you think he’s being asked to pick his pitches? He developing a better eye? Is he someone you see taking a big step next year?

2:19
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not bothered by his performance but, in my Futures Game look, I thought some of the physical tools had gone backward. I’m still on him as a prospect but wouldn’t say a huge breakout is coming next year at this point.

2:20
Kris in Seattle: Why am I getting that funny feeling that Houston once again overpaid for a short term rental a la Liriano/Hernandez? I mean, Sandoval is no Teoscar Hernandez, but Maldonaldo is no Liriano. He’s going to backup Stassi and likely won’t see any action in the playoffs if he’s even on the playoff roster.

2:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Meh. Maybe in a vacuum, but Houston isn’t operating in one, they’re contending and have pitching depth on the farm so I’m fine with this.

2:22
EloyElove: Who is the best CF defensively in the White Sox system (all Luis’s)? Luis Robert,  Basabe, or Gonzalez? Can any of them be above average in CF

2:22
Eric A Longenhagen: LouBob

2:22
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Has the FV on Isaac Paredes changed at all since the start of the year?

2:22
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, will probably be a 50 FV on the next update

2:23
Jack: Been doing some box score scouting of young middle infielders in rookie leagues – any of these names have exciting tools to match their production? Blaze Alexander, Raynel Delgado, Geraldo Perdomo, Wenceel Perez, Luis Santana, and Jake Holmes.

2:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, we have draft coverage of Blaze and Delgado here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all…

2:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Perdomo is solid. Switch-hitter with bat control from each side, fine at short, ont explosive in any way. Utility or low-end regular type of player. Holmes is plus run, 55 raw power, big body that might not stay at SS.

2:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Wenceel is plus hand-eye, oppo gap approach, more pop from right side than left, pretty conservative approach to contact overall but might be elite bat to ball guy.

2:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Santana is stocky 5-8 guy who I have almost nothing on

2:27
Fangraphs reader: Why does Jeff Lunhow hate lefties?

2:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Because most of the hitter population is right-handed

2:28
EloyElove: Is Danny Jansen a good defensive backstop? If so, should the Blue Jays be very excited?

2:28
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s fine back there.

2:29
2:30
Eric A Longenhagen: No/Lean Yes but CWS has been patient with others/Yes/No

2:30
Abe: Charmander, Squirtle, or Bulbasaur?

2:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Bulbasaur

2:30
EloyElove: Obviously you favor scouting and are very qualified/ privy to that information… When do you turn to the stat line?

2:31
Eric A Longenhagen: They’re part of any balanced eval diet in full-season

2:32
Corner of Carnegie and Ontario: Went out and watched the Akron RubberDucks yesterday. McKenzie didn’t have his best stuff but battled through and only gave up 1 run in 5.1IP. He tried to pitch backwards a lot, although the CB was giving him problems. Have you seen him do that before? Also, at its best, what type of shape/velo does his CH have? His few yesterday were firm and uninspiring.

2:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Agree that the change just hasn’t come along yet and it’s why we’re not as high on him as our readership wanted us to be entering the year. Haven’t seen much pitching backwards from him as the fastball velo/command/plane has been enough up to this point.

2:33
CNB: Hi Eric! Surprised by Winker’s summer? Injury aside, he’s been raking.

2:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, has always hit which is why we kept him on the 100 entering the year. This feels right. Wish he’d stay healthy, though.

2:34
Jack: Has any pitching prospect raised his stock this season more than Jesus Luzardo? Do you think he’s more of a mid-rotation guy, or can he be a Front of the rotation starter at peak?

2:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Healthy Paddack? Think Luzardo is a #3.

2:35
Neal: Does Mondesi hit enough to be a difference maker?

2:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Adalberto? I don’t think so but it’s worth a shot while they’re rebuilding. He’s better than Nicky Lopez is he hits but I don’t think he will and would rather have Nicky.

2:36
Draftnik: Can we expect a 2019 draft article on the PerfectGame event in San Diego?

2:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, at least a Board update.

2:36
Rick Sanchez: Have you become aware of any Day Two mlb draft picks who you like? (The 1B Oak drafted comes to mind, iirc he was in the top 100 on your board)

2:37
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re referring to Lawrence Butler. Yeah, Austin Cox with KC is another guy who has moved up for me since the draft. Nasty curveball from the left side, velo is modest but the fastball has good angle.

2:37
Neil: I’ve heard some glowing reports on Luis Gil, thoughts on him?

2:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like you’ve got scouting contacts and have the info you need.

2:37
5 Run Homer: Thoughts on the return for Oh?

2:38
Eric A Longenhagen: I like Wall more than either of the guys NYM got for Familia so, if you’re cool with me using that as context, I thought they did well.

2:38
StroBro: Thoughts on Patrick Sandoval?

2:38
Eric A Longenhagen: 90-92, t 94, above avg curveball, avg change, throws a ton of strikes, backend starter type of guy.

2:38
Xavier: How is Tristan Lutz doing this year? Still bullish about his future?

2:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Started slow and has been on fire for the last two months or so, still think he’s fine.

2:39
MaineBall: What cities would you most like to see get a MiLB team and why?

2:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmmm, I’ve never thought about this. I guess I haven’t been to many smaller cities that could support a team and don’t already have one just because I typically go to cities like that to see ball and there’s already a team. I wish there was a team somewhere in AZ that wasn’t just AZL, I’ll say that.

2:42
2-D: Have you seen or heard anything about Julio Urias lately?

2:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Just that he’s throwing live bp here in AZ Wanna see him in games here as he really gets rehabbing and will have notes in Daily Prospect Notes when he does.

2:43
Jack: Is Luis Garcia (Phillies) a potential GUY?

2:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

2:43
GPT: Yorlis Rodriguez, any thoughts/report on him? Off to a good start after skipping the DSL.

2:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Cuban signee was NP when I saw him as an amateur, haven’t seen enough to re-eval here in AZ.

2:43
G: Why is Peter Alonso the best 1B prospect since Anthony Rizzo?

2:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Uh…you tell me, friend?

2:44
Matt : The Red Sox system is obviously thin, especially one elite or close to elite level prospects ( 0 in the new mlb.com top 100) but their mid-level prospect pool seems to be developing really nicely (Dalbec, Hernandez, Chatham, Mata) do you see anyone one of these making a big jump into top 100 territory next year?

2:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not. Dalbec may, if he hits, because the power is so huge. I’m not a Mata guy.

2:45
Jerry: Should Alex Gordon be considered to have the greatest all-time “fielding” tool amongst left-fielders (or even all outfielders)? His stat cast readings of speed have been well below average for years, yet his skill set in the outfield remains amongst the best in the league

2:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Carl Crawford > Gordon, right?

2:45
D Money: Three of the younger NYY prospects – R. Contreras, Periera & Cabello…..Does any possess the potential for maybe Top 100 guys?

2:45
Eric A Longenhagen: I have them in that order

2:46
Dan: What do you think about inconsistent  cubs AAA reliever dillon maples potential?

2:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Two plus-plus pitches means he could be an elite reliever. Sometimes those guys figuer it out and sometimes they’re Phillipe Aumont.

2:46
Jack: Is Haseleys progress with the new swing anything real?

2:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, as I wrote in DPN a few weeks ago, this is different and better: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-7-9/

2:47
Scouting Eyes: When you’re grading a player, do you give them tool grades based on how their bat will “play” at the position they’re at? Or does the position not matter and you just give grades that reflect how you think their tool is overall. For example, let’s say there is a catcher with a 50FV hit tool. Does the 50FV factor in the offensive barometer of catcher’s– as in, he’s a 50FV in terms of how catchers normally hit, but wouldn’t be if he played OF. Or does he get a 50FV strictly for being an average hitter, no matter if he’s a catcher or outfielder or infielder?

2:48
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not position by position. So a 50 hit SS and a 50 hit 1B are the same, from a contact standpoint.

2:48
Blackbird: Eric, thanks for the great work.  Can you rank Jesus Luzardo, Dakota Hudson, Logan Allen, Alex Faedo, Griffin Canning and Michel Baez in order of preference? Is Luzardo heads and shoulders above the others in terms of ceiling as a # 2 type at peak, or can one of the others mount a challenge?

2:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Luzardo (gap) Baez , Allen (gap) Canning, Hudson, Faedo. Part of Hudson trepidation is health, same with Faedo.

2:50
Tom: Can you explain why everyone is so high on Archer? His name value has exceeded his production for almost 3 full seasons now

2:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed

2:51
surf jam steven: been following duplantier for about a year now. whats he gotta do to move up to top ~50s?

2:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Scrub the shoulder injury from his resume?

2:51
Dan: What’s eloy Jimenez FV

2:53
Eric A Longenhagen: C’mon, folks.

2:53
Breudon: Is it possible that Andrew Knizner passes Casey Kelly as the top catching prospect on the Cardinals? I love his bat.

2:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I wish I would have just ranked him ahead of Kelly last year

2:53
Jim Lahey: thoughts on Yefry Ramirez? Anecdotally, I feel like pitching prospects with better changeups than breaking balls get undervalued, and he looks to be missing a lot of bats in his debut so far

2:54
Eric A Longenhagen: I agree with the changeup thing. Yefry was a Yankees minor league rule 5 selection from AZ, then they swapped him for Int’l space worth more than the minor league rule 5 selection cost. Which is sweet. Yefry is maybe a 5th starter for me.

2:55
angela c: prospect in recent history you personally were most wrong about (i.e., no brandon wood’s)

2:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Sure feels like Yadier Alavrez right now

2:56
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, that’s it for me I’m off to write up some trades. See you next week

We hoped you liked reading Eric Longenhagen Chat: 7/26/18 by Eric Longenhagen!

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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Roger Y
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Why does it seem like so many top prep prospects skipping the Area Code Games this year? Glancing at the rosters as currently listed, CJ Abrams, Jerrion Ealy, Reece Hinds, Brennan Malone and Matthew Allan are all absent.