Eric Longenhagen Chat: 8/7/2020

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, all. There truthfully aren’t many of you in here so looks like this will be a quick one.

Pete: Who should we expect to rise in the next update of the BOARD for the 2021 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: After showcase stuff is through

TDK: Should Ke’Bryan Hayes be the Pirates starting third baseman right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe not *right* now but I’d like to see it soon, especially since the DH enables them to play him, Bell and Moran all at once

AJ: Better prospect as an amateur, Zac Veen or David Dahl?

Eric A Longenhagen: At the same stage? Veen. I could see making an argument for Double-A Dahl vs present, high school Veen but the injury stuff would still put him behind Veen for me.

Brandon J.: I’m curious to hear your thoughts on the Dodgers new young trio of pitchers, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Josiah Gray. Do you see them all being productive major league starters moving forward

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, all of them. Gonsolin perhaps in a multi-inning relief role because of his command but still working a ton of innings, generally.

ChuckNChino: Any chance we see Drew Waters and Cristian Pache up with the Braves this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, all it takes is a little COVID and you might see both at once.

Chris: Has your opinion changed on Kyle Lewis now that he’s starting to adjust to off speed pitches and looks a lot healthier and more athletic in the field?

Eric A Longenhagen: You could slap a + on the back end of his 45 FV and I wouldn’t argue. Glad he’s crushing, still think the strikeouts mean he’s outside the 100, though.

Mark: Do you have any visibility to how 2020 draftee’s have looked in camp?

JT: Hey, Eric! Do you think you’ll trust reports out of alternate sites enough to change anyone’s FV this year, or are they basically locked until MiLB starts up again? Thanks!

Darren: Getting any juicy info from the Royals alternate training site on prospects there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just so everyone knows, scouts aren’t allowed at alternate training sites, and so any info coming out of there (not just from me but from all writers) is coming directly from the team, which means you should take it with a huge grain of salt.

Eric A Longenhagen: No team is going to tell a reporter “yeah this guy looks bad at camp”, and I don’t think we’ve heard of any injuries occurring at the alternate sites, which seems impossible.

Darren: Seen anything from Singer’s 3 starts that would adjust your evaluation of him one way or another?

Eric A Longenhagen: nope

Darren: Are the Dodgers messing with Lux’s service time or are there real reasons to keep him down?

Eric A Longenhagen: He struggles to throw the ball to first base accurately

Schiraldi: What kind of visibility do teams have on other teams’ prospects right now? Are they able to scout the alternate site games in person, does any data get published? Assuming there’s not very much, would you expect that to keep the trade market quiet this summer and during the offseason, since no one has current intell on prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: No data collected at the alt sites is being shared

Eric A Longenhagen: I expect most trades will involves PTBNLs

Joe: For those of us scouting amateurs from home, what’s the best way to watch showcases and college summer leagues? Is a subscription to a site the way to go?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, wherever you can find it. I certainly won’t recommend going to see stuff in person right now. Ya know, because of the global pandemic.

Billy G: Are you watching more MLB with the offsite camps closed off?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, rather than an AZL most nights I’m watching big league games and hoops

ryan: any thoughts on Tejay Antone so far in 2020? roughly what you’d expect of him going forward (with all the requisite “small sample” caveats)?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been basically what I’ve got in the report except with a little more heat

asnbrv: what exactly are teams allowed to do in their “alternate site” this year? Are they playing intrasquad games on top of instructions to the kids?

Eric A Longenhagen: yep

Pat: Is there a chance that practicing/playing vs older players may actually be beneficial for a prospect vs playing? Thinking of a guy like Riley Greene. Does he learn more at A Ball or scrimmaging with 24-26 year old guys in Toledo?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think yes, he and young prospects like him are almost certainly seeing the best pitching of their entire lives right now.

Giodude: What’s your scouting/travel schedule been like these days? What’s different, and what’s (perhaps surprisingly) the same?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen live baseball since March

Eric A Longenhagen: nothing is the same

Gil: Is something is wrong with the board? FV on the the (Scouting Only) page is different than on Scouting + Stats!.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll alert Dolinar

Eric A Longenhagen: the stats are going to be from last year since this year there aren’t any, and that’s a problem

Dirk Dirkington: What do you make of Mick Abel? Draft Day comps were probably a bit reaching with Verlander, Porcello, and Flaherty, but I’m curious what your read is.

Eric A Longenhagen: Those comps are pretty dumb and the fact that all three of those pitchers are nothing like one another says a lot about how accurate they are. Abel was the best high school pitching prospect in the draft imo, his report can be found here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s…

Eric A Longenhagen: or on the Phillies lit

Eric A Longenhagen: list*

Rick: How do you adjust the top prospect list for this year since none of them are playing

Eric A Longenhagen: Graduates will get pulled off, some guys playing in the big leagues will be different enough to shuffle them around some, hopefully we get our shit together as a society and can have a fall developmental league.

Ross: Scouting report on JT Brubaker, who seems to get getting some innings with the entire Pirates rotation on the IL?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’s 28th here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-in-season-prospect-…

Guest: What are your thoughts about Luchessi being optioned out? What do you make of the 5th rotation spot?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jason’s got his finger on the pulse of it and he has Tuesday as the day Pitcher X will go. Wouldn’t surprise me if it’s Gore but I have no intel. As far as Lucchesi goes, I still think he’s a long-term backend starter. The fact that he came up so fast and has option years left means he’s got a little extra value.

Estevao: The Dodgers could roll out a playoff caliber lineup of all players drafted by them, Will Smith, Rios, Lux, Seater, Rios, DJ Peters, Bellinger and Joc. Thoughts on that

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, incredible

Logan: Blake Taylor has been maybe the Astros most valuable pitcher this year. Is he showing any signs of surpassing his 35+ FV or is this just a good small sample?

Eric A Longenhagen: Making a case to be a 40 FV for sure

Eric A Longenhagen: the thing that’s small sample-y is the strike-throwing, though he was better in 2019 than he had been previously, so maybe he’s just better at that now

Matt: Do you think a FO of a rebuilding org would be upset to miss a top pick because their MLB team did too well in this shortened season? Thinking about the Orioles mostly here

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes I do, especially a club like Baltimore

Ross: Re: Pat’s question. But is it necessarily good to see the best pitching of your life? If I wanted to get better at chess, I couldn’t just play a grandmaster and get crushed. I’d have to play people slightly better than me.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s an interesting analogy, but the grandmasters are in MLB not at the campsite.

Pete: Suggestion: Add a column for FV to the Roster Resource team pages.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also an interesting idea. Do you think that would remove reasons to head to The Board?

Tony: When you’re able to get back to your normal schedule and attending games, what are the names of a few prospects you can’t wait to see?

Eric A Longenhagen: The 2021 draft class and the group of really young int’l players who would have made their stateside debuts

Chris: In the future would any team consider doing more of an off site approach where they loan out players to their minor league team for short stints and then call them back to get instruction and intrasquad work?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, teams are putting less emphasis on games during instructional league that and the structure you describe extends that trend to the season. I think that’s very possible. And it’s good, the spring sites in AZ and FL gets used too little for how great they are.

Rick: Chances we see Vaughn up for the White SoxS this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: pretty remote

Paul E.: How important is it for minor league scouts to watch major league games, in terms of understanding how minor league performance translates to the next level?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s very important for pro and amateur side scouts to see big league games to calibrate their instrument, so to speak. Gotta know what the end result looks like.

Not Evan: True or false: the chance there’s a 2021 minor league season is identical to the chance there’s a widely available vaccine by next spring/summer.

Eric A Longenhagen: False but I don’t think you’re far off. Gotta include the possibility of herd immunity and the possibility that there’s an ill-advised season.

Joe Money: Hi Eric thanks for the chat. I am thinking of starting a tax preparation business and would like to give the LLC a baseball related name, any suggestions? One One and 3 up 3 down are already taken in my state.

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmm, i feel like this deserves more time than I can give it as a chat answer and also I’m terrible at naming stuff. So I open it up to the rest of chat and I’ll post ones I like. Chat, @joemoney in your suggestions.

Joe: Have stashed these bats in minors: R Greene; Bracho; Alexfri Planez; Johan Rojas; Julio Pablo Marinez; and Malcom Nunez. Any not worth keeping a bit longer? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: depends on your alternatives but I have JPM at the back of that group

John: Any reaction to Codi Heuer’s promising start with the White Sox?

Eric A Longenhagen: Satisfaction

RAH: I’ve been impressed by Codi Heuer so far. The results have been good, but I like that he’s getting swings and misses on the fastball with that arm slot, and the fact he actually has 3 pitches. What are your expectations for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had a strong relief grade on him entering the year and his slider is better than what I saw in the minors, so yeah he’s maybe a 45 FV now

Estevao: Here is a question, I’ve always wondered, when contending teams trade prospects for a star, how often do they sell high on a prospect that they believe might be overvalued or is it mostly just compromising and giving up players that they really believe in

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s often the former: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/12/10/18133919/baseball-trades-pros…

Ben: Piggybacking off of Pat’s comment, should we expect to see guys like Greene and Bobby Witt Jr. go straight to Hi-A in 2021, assuming the minor leagues will be back to “normal”?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess so, at the very least they’d have a quick Low- to Hi-A hook if they crushed in April.

Giodude: For lower level prospects, does the pandemic essentially delay their development for a year? Or do you think the more promising young prospects are getting enough instruction that their timelines will be roughly similar?

Eric A Longenhagen: It really depends on the situation of each individual. Some of the young kids in the DR are playing sandlot ball with eachother and still developing while others are not. it’s gonna be a mixed bag.

asnbrv: How would PTBNLs work this year? Can teams complete PTBNL trades after the “player must be on the 60 player pool to be traded” rule doesn’t apply anymore in the off season?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s what I’ve been told by FO folks, yes.

David: What are your thoughts on Ryan Pepiot with Dodgers. Watched him pitch in a Dodger intrasquad and looked the part.

Eric A Longenhagen: Really like him. Big changeup, velo is already better than college.

GSon: Given the limitations on viewing/statistical information availability.. can you see ANYONE topping Kumar Rocker as the presumptive # 1 overall pick in the next draft?.. who?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve got Leiter #1

Jake: Do you think teams that aren’t contenders will be incentivized to bring up prospects in Sept just to get some game action in an otherwise lost year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Jake: What do you think of the Royals bringing up relatively inexperienced pitchers Singer and Bubuc? Do you expect to see Lynch as well this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s interesting that KC and SD are willing to start guys’ service clocks earlier than the 40-man timeline would otherwise dictate and they each deserve praise for it from the labor-concerned online community.

Mike Hawk: Do you see Torkelson being able to handle 3B?

Eric A Longenhagen: nah

Trent Hauser: Think anyone wants NCAA athletes paid now they are the minor leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I certainly do. I’m scared about what’ll happen to some programs if there’s no football this fall, though.

Pete: Following up on my suggestion. I would still head to the board as my prospect default but the column on roster resource would help identify future team needs.

Eric A Longenhagen: Noted. Maybe the FV can pop up if you hover over the guy’s rankign or something? That way we’re not using column space. I’ll toss it around with Sean and Jason.

IV: Questions about two Dodgers MiLB Players. Has your outlook on Zach McKinstry changed at all since the Dodgers list came out? Second one is probably harder to answer, but do you have any notes on Jimmy Titus?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still have McKinstry in as a good utility bench guy. Don’t have much on Titus. Medium frame, open stance, sweeping bat path, pull-heavy, struck out a bunch at Ogden.

Estevao: Looking at Ohtani there has to be a lot of bad luck also in his injuries. I understand playing two ways is difficult but he did it to full extent in Japan and wasn’t injured. His upside as a pitcher is too high to consider giving it up now, right.

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed. I’d consider a bullpen move before I gave up on it entirely.

Nate: Christian Javier has gotten a lot of the headlines so far…but do you think Brandon Bielak has a legit chance to stick as a 3/4 type in the Astros rotation now as well? I like that he seems to pound the zone a lot and has decent enough stuff

Eric A Longenhagen: i have a 4/5 on him rather than a 3/4

TP: What changed or was missed about Jurickson Profar as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the injuries took a toll and the service manipulation impacted his… demeanor? personality? He was clearly frustrated and became, based on perhaps biased reports, aloof or less competitive, or something else I’m not describing well. It’s all subjective, of course.

Monte Harrison Fan Club: What’s the fastest you can remember backing off a bullish assessment of a prospect upon a disastrous MLB debut?

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmm, Maybe Jorge Alfaro because of how often he swung and the limited locations in which he can lift/impact with power? Even then, he’s playing the most valuable position and has huge tools so I was still in on him as a regular…

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s a tough one

Eric A Longenhagen: lots of guys I was big one haven’t come up at all (Yadi Alvarez) more than they’ve come up and sucked

Sirras: @joemoney Balls and Strikes LLC

Sirras: @Joemoney Preparer to be named later LLC

Numpty: @joemoney Cleanup Tax Prep

Jimmy: I saw Rogers was bumped to an 80 glove. Was it incorrectly marked before or did something change?

Eric A Longenhagen: was just my error for not matching the report to the grades

Joe: Why Leiter over Rocker for you? The polish and command?

Eric A Longenhagen: the way the fastball plays, that’s it.

Chris: I’m curious why Dustin May’s strikeout rate for his career is under one per inning given his ridiculous filth.

Eric A Longenhagen: Related to the last Q: two-seamers just miss fewer bats than vertically-oriented four-seamers.

LenFuego: Tax prep company baseball-related name: Savermetrics.

Will: I don’t think anyone questions Vlad Jr;s talent but with the move to 1st base now and the body build at his young age… Am I wrong for worrying?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t “worry” but I definitely have Bo over him now

Jeff: Where is Jasson Dominguez playing this summer and have you heard how he’s looked?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s working out in the DR and he’s built like Mr Universe

Chris: With Mookie’s deal, seems like the Dodgers won’t be able to keep Bellinger, Seager and Buehler long term. Of those three, which two would you sign long term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seager’s injuries would probably slide him for me.

Domingo: How frequently do you get asked what happened with Jurickson Profar?

Eric A Longenhagen: monthly?

Domingo: On the flip side, what’s the fastest you were all in on a lower ranked guy upon a great MLB debut?

Eric A Longenhagen: This happens more often. Probably Matt Olson?

Numpty: @joemoney Relief Tax Prep

Eric A Longenhagen: nah, that one sounds like a laxative

Numpty: @joemoney Wheelhouse Tax Prep

Eric A Longenhagen: couple more, then I’ve gotta split. Get those LLC suggestions in for Joe

Jon: I often see speed grades from the minors that are incorrect compared to statcast when the guy reaches majors. Isn’t speed the easiest tool to judge? Where is the discrepancy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have issues with sprint speed as a measure of practical speed, which I talk about in our book.

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: the top 25 prospects are pretty well known. Who are two or three guys outside the top 50 that you think have a chance to become special

Eric A Longenhagen: the group on my current list that starts at 80 and ends at 86 are all great candidates

Slippin’ Jimmy: @joemoney Top of the Order Tax Prep

LenFuego: Do you worry about potential inaccuracy of radar guns, such as just not being calibrated? How as a scout does one go about making sure the numbers are accurate?

Eric A Longenhagen: (looks at other student’s paper)

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, that’s gonna do it for me today. Thanks for coming, hope you and yours stay healthy and sane during this effed up time.