Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat, Making a List

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, hope you’re all well. ICYMI, the Royals prospect list went up yesterday and I’m finishing up Detroit today before moving on to the NL Central. Let’s begin…

12:03
Roadhog: Any thoughts on Paul Blackburn?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Teams typically need 10 starters to get through a season and Blackburn projects as one of those 10, an up and down depth arm.

12:04
Bill: I miss Josh Tobias and wish him the best. Thoughts on him?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Good feel for the barrel, good approach, scouts don’t like the defense at 2B and he doesn’t have the power to profile anywhere else so it’s a bench bat profile. He’ll need to diversify his defensive portfolio moving forward.

12:05
John: Which level of the Padres minor league system will be the one to watch?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: The AZL

12:05
BK: What are the odds Vlad Jr enters the majors as a third baseman?

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d ballpark it around 15-20%?

12:06
Jesse: Do you think Forrest Snow will get a cup of coffee? Signing with the Brewers seems like a smart bet for a 27ish year old trying to make it.

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s reasonable. Bob Ross episodes are on Netflix if you want to see a lot of forest snow immediately.

12:07
Pat: Strahm’s profile reads a lot like Rich Hill or 2016 Drew Pomeranz (with more velo), do you think those two are within the range of outcomes?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Strahm more athletic than Pomeranz and arguably more pitch projection because of the development time he lost recovering from TJ for two years.

12:08
John: With Renfroe/Margot making their big league debuts last season, who is the next top padre prospect to get the call?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: 10k words on the system here. Nobody huge next year but the fun name to watch is Phil Maton. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-san-diego-padres/

12:09
Kim: Are you checking it twice?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: At least, for typos.

12:10
Benbadatroto: Eric, what is the dream ceiling for Meadows? Can he be a superstar?

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s approaching that. I’d say “star”, 4 WAR annual type of guy is the ceiling I think

12:10
Tom: Do you think Mallex should be starting every game in Atlanta? Not over Inciarte but in a corner spot? I guess my question is basically: “Can Mallex outproduce one or both of Matt Kemp/Nick Markakis?”

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d give him every opportunity to develop in the big leagues, which means a ton of at-bats.

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: I also think there’s an argument to be made for giving players reps in their ultimate role. So, if ATL thinks Smith is just a 4th outfielder, it might behoove them to let him get used to not playing everyday, hitting cold in the 7th inning, etc.

12:12
John: Have you heard anything on an inning restriction for Cal Quantril, or is his tommy John recovery now behind him? Will that effect his movement through the system this season?

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I assume he’ll be handled carefully next year but don’t know of a specific inning limit.

12:13
Chase Kimura: Should I start getting excited about Jahmai Jones? Obviously, he’s the best prospect in the Angels system, but I can’t help but think he’s got the potential to be an everyday left fielder on a competitive team. Jones/Trout/Calhoun, babyyyy

12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s fine to be excited about Jones. Good athlete, great makeup, excellent feel to hit, plays CF for me.

12:13
Bob: Other than Joe Jimenez, are there any potential dominant reliever prospects close to the majors?

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Reports on Jimenez’s stuff haven’t inspired awe but he’s better than the usual relief prospect. Carson Fulmer, Joan Gregorio, I like Miguel Castro as a post-hype prospect

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, and Enrique Burgos

12:16
johnforthegiants: What kind of seasons do you see out of Margot and Dahl in 2017? Can Bregman have a 6 war season this year?

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Margot better D, Dahl better stick, 6 WAR for Bregman seems high but every time I’ve doubted that dude he makes me look like a moron.

12:17
DR: What differentiates Maitan at this stage from other recent top international bats (Mazara, etc) at the same stage in their development? Present tools or projection? Something more?

12:17
Eric A Longenhagen: The combo of hit/power coupled with the chance to stay on the left side of the infield.

12:17
Twins Fan: Thoughts on Yadier Alvarez included in a potential dozier trade?

12:17
Eric A Longenhagen: Would endorse. Think he’s #1 in that system.

12:17
Lenny: There might be an obvious answer to this, but it’s a little confusing to me. The Mariners got Whalen and Povse from the Braves who seem like very different prospects. Whalen is a relatively high floor, low ceiling prospect (right?) SP and is 22. Povse is a higher ceiling SP who is further away from the majors, but is 23. What about their arsenal/makeup/etc. would have the older player both higher ceiling and also further away from the majors? Hope that makes sense.

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Whalen’s ceiling is lower because a) he’s just not very good and b) the cement on the body is dry. Povse’s ceiling is a #4/5 starter but he’s got room to fill out or add some command because it takes big guys longer to learn to control their bodies….there’s just a chance something more comes with Povse.

12:19
Erik: What are the odds Moncada’s strikeout rate sinks him, despite his other tools? Does he have something like a 10-20% chance of being nothing more than a AAAA player? I know prospects are highly volatile, even the best ones, so is even that underselling his risk?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I think the bust potential is probably in the range you’ve outlined. My fellow FG writers are concerned about the K’s but KATOH loves Moncada anyway, which puzzles me. I think he’s #1 in baseball.

12:20
Justin: Where would you rank Giolito on your White Sox top prospects list?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: #2 behind Moncada, ahead of Lopech.

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Moncada
Giolito
Kopech

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Lopez

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: then Collins

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll update that list today and we’ll republish tomorrow.

12:21
Jack: Rosario or Torres, who is the best NY SS in 5 years?

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Gah, that’s hard. I’ll say Rosario.

12:21
Zack: Could Blake Rutherford be starting in NY in 2018? How good do you think he can be?

12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s probably fast but weirdly not impossible. I think Rutherford could handle full-season ball right now which could put him in Double-A by some point in 2018. I think he can be a middle of the order bat.

12:22
Anonymous: Meadows for De Leon- who says no/ what would one team need to include to make it happen?

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: PIT says no, LA needs to add….Barnes and a flier arm?

12:23
Jerry: What is realistic for Drew Jackson? A poor man’s Brendan Ryan?

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Not that kind of glovework but that type of defense-first player, yes.

12:24
Tom: Why do I have a strong bust sense about Clint Frazier?

12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Anti-Ginger bias?

12:24
Tom M.: Just how valuable and how high can the ceiling of JP Crawford be? How concerned are you that ever since his “hi-A” ball breakout season that he’s moderately struggled both in AA and AAA? Can he be a high OBP guy with good/great defense at SS?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: I think the offensive statistics were inflated by the hitting environment at Double-A but yes, Great D and OBP are the calling cards and I still think Crawford is one hell of a prospect despite his meh year with the IronPigs.

12:25
Mark: Did your wife receive the hair dryer, if not did you get the infamous Sir Alex Ferguson hair dryer treatment?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: No. Carson and I had issues recording and I left the house too late. Got stuck in traffic. Hair dryer was never delivered.

12:25
Joe: Who’s your favorite prospect in AA or higher who seems to be relatively overlooked by the industry?

12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Off the top of my head, I buy into Mitch Haniger, Ty Blach as a starter….OH, German Marquex doesn’t get nearly enough love for my taste.

12:26
Zigs: Would love to get your thoughts on Nick Senzel. What kind of stats could he put up in a typical season and do you think he could get pushed to the majors this year like benintendi did last year.

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Bat is really advanced, defense has improved, doesn’t have monster raw power or the potential for it but yes, has a chance to move quickly and is my pick for the first bat of the 2016 draft to reach the Majors.

12:27
Gio: Is Bird a top 10 1B? 10-15?

12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Average regular for me, not sure where that places him in the 1B meta

12:28
Jim Lonborg: Thoughts on Bobby Dalbec? Is he a likelier major league starter than Sam Travis?

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Huge raw pwoer, had historic swing and miss issues at U of A make the profile rather risky for a college bat. Travis has the higher floor, Dalbec the higher ceiling.

12:29
Ricky: The podcast title insinuates a discussion about flooring. I hope it is not a discussion about flooring.

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: I honestly don’t remember what we talked about and have no clue what made the final recording and what didn’t. I hope the bet Carson and I made wasn’t left on the cutting room floor because it is a doozy.

12:30
Pb&Js: Hi Eric, is Austin Barnes still considered a prospect? His minor league stats are intriguing, especially his low K%, but will he ever get a shot at a full-time roll?

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I like him. Full report…..

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: there

12:31
Sailor Jerry: Think Thyago Vieira can be an impact arm for the M’s in 2017 a la Edwin Diaz or still another year away?

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Secondary stuff isn’t as nasty as Diaz but yes, could pitch in the bigs next year.

12:31
Sally: The next 3 seasons Aaron Judge will average a WAR of ______

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: 2

12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: a .5, a 1.5 and a 4

12:32
Brock Holt!: You doing a top 100 list or tiered by fv?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: True list, governed by FV but I’m not just tossing all the 55s in a tier and saying “they’re all the same”

12:33
Beth: Is Jorge Mateo as fast as Bill Ham?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: No, Hamilton is super human

12:33
Jimmy: What’s the difference between Victor Robles and Ronald Acuna? They seem to have very similar profiles, but Robles gets a lot of hype publicly, while Acuna seems to be considered a fringe top prospect by many publications.

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Robles has more speed, better defensive profile, Acuna has more power.

12:34
Pb&Js: Gavin Ceccini was a first round pick seems like a solid player for the Mets farm, but I never hear his name when they’re discussing the future. Does he have a roll there?

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: A 40 FV at best for me. Can’t play SS, groundball-only swing that I don’t think works in the big leagues. I’m off him.

12:34
dAN: do you think Nimmo ever becomes more than a 4th OF?

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: No

12:35
Carl: What is Domingo Ascevedo’s upside as a reliever? It seems like it should be super high considering his velocity and control

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Setup type, maybe a touch better than that

12:35
john: Will Dom smith hit for enough power to be a starting 1B?

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: I believe so

12:35
Bren: Is a jump to full season ball from the DSL too crazy for an 18 year old with a supposed skill-set like Andres Giminez?

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: I like the way you think.

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: If he looks good during ST, I’d endorse that.

12:36
kroB: !dneirf olleh

12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: ^Do the other FG writers humor this person?

12:37
Andrew: Best name of any MiLB player?

12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Richard Lovelady in the Royals sytem

12:37
Andrew: Thoughts on the B-Mets’ new name: the Binghamton Rumble Ponies?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say it’s an abomination on par with some of man’s greatest atrocities.

12:38
Cracker Jack: I have decided to figuratively die on a hill, and that hill is Rockie Tom Murphy. Is it impossible to imagine him having a higher WAR than Gary Sanchez over the next 3 years? If not, is that largely based on Sanchez’s better defensive profile?

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Sanchez is going to be overvalued in your fantasy drafts because of the year he just had and that Murphy might be a better value but Sanchez is a catcher with like 70 raw power and an 80 arm so, just from a prospect perspective, I’m taking Sanchez.

12:40
Erik: True or false: the realistic bad-case scenario for Dylan Cozens, where his power is mostly park-related like many fear and he never figures out lefties or quality breaking balls, is still a major league bench piece.

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably true. The power is real, independent of park. It’s whether or not the output can continue that is the question.

12:40
Xolo: Where would you rank the new Padres (Cordoba, Torrens, Diaz, Baez) in their top prospects list?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Diaz, Torrens, Cordoba, Baez. All would be 40 or 35 FVs.

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Torrens would be at the top if not for the shoulder thing.

12:41
str8killa nofilla: Who fills my 12th and final keeper prospect slot: Luis Ortiz, Yohander Mendez, or Thomas Szapucki?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Mendez, slam dunk.

12:41
Andrew: After the top few guys, what prospect should Mets fans be most excited about?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Any International signee. Mets International department is way underrated.

12:42
PieTraynee: You’ve recently mentioned hearing from at least one scout that Tucker was more highly though of than Newman. Do you personally feel this way as well?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Not at the moment but I reserve the right to be swayed when I do the Pirates list

12:43
Django: Will Albies make a significant contributing to Atlanta at any point in 2017?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not

12:43
Roadhog: Thoughts on AJ Puk?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Huge lefty with rare stuff, 93-96, plus slider. Bad body, back issues, questions about the command and athleticism. I was lower on him than most at draft time but he was still, objectively, a top 10 talent. Lefties with that kind of stuff and size don’t grow on trees.

12:44
Electric: Any precedent of a guy like AJ Puckett, who has a good pitcher’s frame at 6’4, improving the plane/movement on their fastball as they develop?

12:44
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but for Puckett that would probably involve a change to the way he uses his lower half during delivery. He lacks plane because of the drop and drive. Would be a pretty significant change to take that away.

12:45
Neel: generally, fans have access to top 100 prospects lists from various websites, but do you have any guys that you like that might be able to make a big jump up the lists from now to next year?

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Any young player who is only at the back of the list because his FV is diluted by age. So Maitan, Morejon, Matt Manning, etc.

12:45
Drew: Struggling Prospects Questions: What’s Nick Williams’s outlook? Do you foresee him starting on Opening Day? What’s the deal with Robert Stephenson? A handful of reports are down on him (evidenced by his sliding down ranks).

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Williams’ feel for the barrel and power make him a big leaguer but I think his approach (which is bad, like really bad, bad enough that I wanted to NP him when I saw him in the AFL a few years ago but was talked out of it by smart people) limits his ceiling to an avg player.

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Stephenson is a reliever for me.

12:47
Logan: Who are the top catching prospects in the minors for you (guys who you project to stay behind the plate only)?

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Only guys who I think are definite C’s: Mejia, Alfaro, Carson Kelly..there are several others but that’s the cream of the crop for me. Off the top of my head at least

12:50
Rob: I really enjoyed your podcast on Moncada. What are your thoughts on his right-handed swing? Do you think it has potential or if he should consider abandoning switch-hitting?

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: Too much power to abandon it. Just doesn’t have the bat control from that side that he does from the left.

12:50
Everything’s On Sale!: Are the White Sox a top 3 system now? Will you be doing overall rankings once all your orgs are done? (Great job on those, by the way!)

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure if they’re top 3 but they went from bottom 10 to top 5 in like 36 hours, which is insane. And yes I’ll rank them.

12:51
Jim Lonborg: What’s your general feeling about the Red Sox system after the Sale trade? Are Groome and Devers good enough at the top, and is there enough depth, to still provide a lot of future value?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Still a solid system. Benintendi still qualifies so he’s #1 now. Groome and Devers 2 and 3 in some order. There’s a drop off after that but there’s still a nice combo of floor (guys like Travis, Johnson and Marrero) and ceiling (Gerson Bautista was bumping 100 during instructs for me, I’ve liked Josh Ockimey since high school, Dalbec and Kyri Washington have big ceilings if they can learn to hit)

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, Mike Shawaryn looked better during instructs.

12:54
Alex: I know he isn’t much of a prospect anymore after last year, but hes spent a good deal of time injured and in minors. What do you make of Taillon? Also, does Glasnow surpass him this year?

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: I have Taillon ahead of Glasnow. Non-zero chance Glasnow is a reliever due to command issues, Taillon I think is a #2/3 starter, really really good.

12:55
Ken: BA rated Sixto Sanchez really high on the Phils list, what are your thoughts on him.

12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: Short but not small righty, mid to upper-90s, throws strikes, good athlete, secondaries raw but flash. I really like him. Definite top 10 in that system, will try to do the mental gymnastics to rank him sixth on their list when I do it.

12:56
jon: Do any of the Aaron Brooks, Ryan Williams, Rob Zastryzny types sitting in Iowa have a chance to be even a mediocre starter?

12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d go Z, Brooks (more relief for me) and then Williams. All will probably see big league time at some point due to injuiry.

12:56
I am the Walrus: What’s your take on Tor’s pitchers Reid-Foley and Greene? Potential #2’s or more 3/4’s?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: More of the latter. Greene’s fastball is arguably a 70 but after that there’s little else.

12:57
Gest: Is Hunter Greene a better pitching prospect coming out of high school than Riley Pint was last year? Is he a better prospect than Groome was?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Great question.

12:58
Eric A Longenhagen: So Greene was 94-98 during showcase looks, fastball moves. Slider flashes but is inconsistent, he has little use for change right now but the athleticism is such that you can really project.

12:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Pint threw harder, right? Up to 102 in workouts as a high schooler, breaking ball was similarly inconsistent but flashing better than Greene’s when it did. Delivery had more violence. Both great athletes with great makeup.

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Groome was low to mid-90s, biggest body of the three but not the best physique (that would be Pint) and a good athlete but not as explosive as the other two. Curveball was the best secondary pitch of the trio, off the field questions muddied things.

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: I had Groome ahead of Pint last year because of the confidence in the breaking ball and because he had, in my opinion, better command projection because of the delivery.

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I think I like Greene now more than I did Pint, pre-draft. So the question probably comes down to Greene vs Groome and I think the answer depends on how much you value makeup/athleticism vs a presently effective breaking ball.

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: (shrugs)

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good question

1:02
Gest: What do people mean when they say “heavy fastball”?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Tough for hitters to elevate due to some combo of sink and plane.

1:02
Gest: Can you give a Reds fan the reality check on Ariel Hernandez?

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him during instructs, liked the velo (95-98) and put a 50/55 on the slider. He’s a solid prospect but probably a reliever.

1:03
Allan: Would Jeimer Candelario get more hype in another system? What do you think the cubs will do with him?

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Haha, no. Cubs/Yankees/Red Sox prospects get plenty of hype. I think he gets traded, especially if there’s a fit with a team that thinks he can play 3B.

1:04
Eric: Not trying to criticize at all but just curious, why the lack of lists lately? Have missed reading your content lately.

1:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Submitted the Royals list last week but we’re all travelling and getting everything lined up for publication took an extra day which, when including the weekend, was an extra 4 days. Also Winter Meetings set me back a few days. Salright, they’re coming.

1:06
Kosch: Did I miss the Astros prospect list? Or is the AL West still in the works?

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: AL West will be last.

1:07
Ken: what was the grossest thing you ever ate at a minor league ball park?

1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Chik fil a

1:07
jda: How many 70 FV prospects other than Yoan Moncada are there in baseball right now, for you?

1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: 0

1:07
20longyears: Does Eric Wood have a future in Pittsburgh?

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe as a bench bat. Went unpicked in Rule 5, which should tell you teams didn’t quite buy his season and AFL

1:09
Buff: Robert Stephenson and Sean Newcomb: Hold ’em or fold ’em?

1:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Give me Newcomb you can have STephenson

1:09
Bobby Blownilla: Does the recent success of MLBers like Hendricks and Kuechel raise the opinion of command/control prospects like Soroka or Gonsalves?

1:10
Eric A Longenhagen: Not especially. Guys with middling stuff who develop 70+ command late in their careers are far rarer than guys with 60 fastball, 60 breaking ball that learn some semblance of command.

1:10
WhiteSox2020: I’ve heard mixed reviews on Zack Collins as a catcher. What seems to be the consensus? What should he be working on this year to stay at C?

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: No consensus. I lean towards “no” but think it’s possible he’s passable

1:11
Ghost of Gred Madduxes Past: Are you buying into Max Fried’s late-season surge (25 IPs, 43% K rate, 7% BB rate in his last four starts), which was much better than his performance before that point (24% K rate, 12% BB rate in 92 IPs)? Ordinarily I wouldn’t give a pitcher’s last four starts any more weight than four starts at any other point in the season, but Fried is a guy coming off Tommy John, so I’m thinking (hoping?) that maybe the guy we saw at the end of the year is closer to the pitcher we should expecting going forward than the pitcher we saw for most of the season.

1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda buy it. Reports on what his stuff was like late in the year are pretty crazy, almost suspiciously so.

1:12
Josiah: Do you think Ramon Laureano’s power breakout is real? Most of his HR came in hitter friendly park but maintained ISO on promotion. Can he be a 15+ HR guy?

1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I think you have the output properly pegged around 15, but yes I think the progress he’s made is legitimate. Could be a good everyday player.

1:13
1:13
Eric A Longenhagen: Gsellman, Weaver, Stewart, all big leaguers for me.

1:13
Josiah: Suppose a pitcher has 4 pitches (FB, CB, SL, CH). 3 are plus, one is fringe. Which would ideally be fringe?

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on his age, athleticism, arm slot and lots of other stuff but generally I’ll take the FB/CRV combo and the change can be fringe right now since it’s easier to develop.

1:14
desertfox9139: do you think rey patrick didder has potential to be a breakout prospect in the next couple of years?

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, underrated.

1:14
Chris : Frances Martes crack the rotation this year? Where do you see him number 3?

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: No, relief for me.

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: I liked Paulino more in AFL

1:15
Chris : Where does Alford rank as an overall prospect?

1:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably somewhere in the back half of a top 100 based on upside. I like 70 runners with 60 raw power.

1:16
Matt: Sorry if you’ve answered this, but do you have the schedule for which divisions you’re covering and when? I know you mentioned NLC next.

1:20
Eric A Longenhagen: I get these questions a lot so I’ll just spill the beans: It just doesn’t make sense to take the time to make a schedule for the lists that I’m unlikely to stick to. It’s my first year doing this, it’s just me, and if anything random happens (sources for a list are hard to come by, I get sick, a team pursues me, a family member in PA dies and I need to travel, several of which have already occurred) the whole thing gets thrown off. So I’m keeping things flexible for myself. It’s better for the product, the lists come out faster this way and it allows me to better feel my way through this process for the first time.

1:20
Josiah: Where’s the ceiling with Adrian Morejon?

1:20
Eric A Longenhagen: #2/3

1:20
Jim Lonborg: Is there such a thing as a non-prospect (not counting older guys being stored in the minors), or is there just a gradually diminishing likelihood of success?

1:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely NPs or Org Guys that only project to play in the minors

1:21
Logan: Is Amed Rosario a top-10 prospect in baseball? Is Lindor a fair comp (with the caveat that player comps suck)? If not, what’s the biggest difference between the two?

1:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Not like Lindor. Lindor an 80 defender, Rosario more raw power.

1:21
Josiah: Does Forrest Whitley have TOR potential? Obviously far away

1:22
Eric A Longenhagen: More mid-rotation for me. Doesn’t have big physical projection but I like the current FB/breaking ball combination and command profile when he’s not overthrowing like he was in Chicago last summer. I preferred low-90s, Area Code Whitley.

1:23
IE: Are you a believer in Estevan Florial?

1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s the type of prospect that I’m a bit of a sucker for so I’ll tentatively say yes.

1:23
baek: why are you higher on yadier alvarez than other scout? no other list seems to have him higher than bellinger or verdugo

1:24
Eric A Longenhagen: He has the same FV as Bellinger so you’re splitting hairs there. I don’t know of any other Dodgers list that has come out so no idea where others have him. I’m pretty sure I’ve seen more of Alvarez, Bellinger, Verdugo and that entire system than anyone else writing about it (just because I live in AZ) and feel comfortable with where I have those guys.

1:25
Matt: Tyler Wade going to be useful UTIL? In 2017?

1:25
Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, yeah.

1:25
David: Last March Dan Farnsworth said that Luiz Gohara would be limited by his lack of command and arm-heavy delivery. He then went on to a fantastic year in 2016, including more than halving his BB%, what changed with him?

1:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Not totally sure that this was causal but he was in much better shape this year than last.

1:25
Guest: Would you rather have the Brewers farm system (arguably most depth in baseball, but no one at the top end of the top 100 lists), or the Pirates (top heavy with Glasnow/Meadows/a few others, but falls off a cliff in terms of quality depth pretty quickly)?

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: MIL

1:26
Guest: Based on what you’ve seen out of Kyle Tucker & Francis Martes…would you deal them with Joe Musgrove for Quintana?

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d try to find a way to do the deal without parting with Tucker but have no issue parting with the other two.

1:26
Bort: Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna — which high-upside OFer do you like more, and why?

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Acuna, better defensive profile

1:26
Kathy: Technically no longer a prospect, but what are your expectations for Joey Gallo next year? Long term?

1:27
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s such an extreme that I think it’s hard to predict what happens there. I kinda doubt he ever hits, but I said the same thing about Chris Davis.

1:27
Sonny: Moncada’s K% has been pounded by the Boston FO and media but it undersells his high OBP, BABIP and quality of contact. The issues shouldn’t be dismissed totally but haven’t we seen this profile succeed more than fail recently? With the Kris Bryant example the most optimistic

1:28
Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, but we shouldn’t be shocked that BOS is trying to manipulate the media. Again. John Henry literally owns the Globe.

1:28
Josiah: Is it just me or does Anthony Kay seem like the perfect candidate for the Jacob deGrom/Robert Gsellman path – decent in minors, learn Warthen slider, dominate?

1:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff isn’t like that but I do love Kay. Smallish, bulldog competitor with a great changeup. Probably only a #4/5 at best but a good prospect. Avoid the deGrom comps, deGrom had a unique background.

1:29
Mike: Is underwoods stuff overrated and prolly bust or never make it to MLB for Cubs? Is there any Cubs pitching prospect that really projects as good starter?

1:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Underwood’s stuff is overrated because the fastball doesn’t play as well as the velo indicates. Pitch is flat. If he’s 96+ in relief maybe it will work. Cease is your guy in the system to watch.

1:30
Spa City: Do you think Willie Calhoun can handle 2B well enough to hold a major league job? If not do you think he could handle a corner outfield position? He seems like a legitimate major league prospect as a hitter.

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: DH for me

1:31
Brendan: What’s the ceiling for W. Adames? Where does he rank among SS prospects for you?

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: All Star. Top 6 SS prospect in baseball for me.

1:33
somedude: You mentioned that the reports on Joe Jimenez’s stuff have been lackluster…Can you elaborate? Every report I’ve seen from this year has his fastball somewhere around 70/80 Present/Future and touching 98-99mph with the slider something like 60/70 Present/Future–did he trend downward or something? Thanks in advance!

1:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts who saw him mid-year in Double-A saw a middle reliever, he struggled to command anything. He was mostly 94-96 this year, touching higher than that early in the year. FB plays up due to extension. Slider is plus for me. I really like him, have a 45 FV on him for the Tigers list, which is really high for a pure reliever. 45 FV basically means I think he’s worth 1.5 WAR annually which only 30 or so relievers were worth in 2016.

1:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Of course, if anything, ANYTHING, goes backwards, he’s a 40 and a 7th inning guy at best. Tigers fans know first hand that hyped relief-only guys either take time or don’t work out (see, Rondon, Bruce)

1:35
Trixie: Was it worth giving up Josh Van Meter to get a shot at Luis Torrens in the Rule 5 Draft?

1:36
Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Van Meter a UTIL at best, Torrens was a legit top 10 catching prospect in baseball before he got hurt.

1:36
Paul: What would Billy Hamilton run the 40 yard dash in?

1:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Fun one. So, Tim Tebow ran a 4.71 at the combine. He was a 40 runner in the fall league, basically 4.3 from home to first.

1:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Hamilton is routinely sub-3.9 from home to first, especially from the left side.

1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously we’re talking about different distances and levels of acceleration, but I think it’s reasonable to ballpark Hamilton’s 40 around a Darrell Green, Deion Sanders, Chris Johnson type of range. The dude flies.

1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: The first time I scouted Hamilton he bunted and was such a blur on his way to first that it literally took my breath away to see a baseball player move that fast.

1:39
Johnny Coconuts: What do you think the odds are that Paxton can develop into an ace, especially considering his age and injury history?

1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: 5%

1:40
Mike: Harrison Bader…4th OF or solid regular?

1:40
Eric A Longenhagen: I lean toward the latter.

1:40
David: Better super young pitching prospect. Luiz Gohara? or Huascar Ynoa?

1:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Gohara. Lefty, touches 98. Ynoa has a lower slot, might have platoon issues, less velo with very little physical projection.

1:41
Kristen: Connor Sadzeck – future starter or reliever? Improved control dramatically last season.

1:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Relief for me.

1:41
Ghost of Gred Madduxes Past: Lucius Fox looked overmatched in A ball this year. Was he just too young for the level or are you concerned about him ever being to hit enough to be a top prospect?

1:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely very young and too raw for that level in my opinion, was also hurt. I’m buying low on him in the hypothetical dynasty leagues I’m not in.

1:42
Kristen: Tyrell Jenkins – few seasons ago he was BA’s #94 prospect. Worth it for TEX to take him on as a reclamation project or is he toast?

1:43
Eric A Longenhagen: I consider both Jenkins and Jackson relievers.

1:43
Erik: What is the highest ceiling a tweener (too weak of a glove for an up the middle position and too weak of a bat for a corner position) can have, assuming both bat and glove are as good as they can be while still being a proper tweener? Are there examples of highly successful players that fit that profile in the big leagues today?

1:43
Eric A Longenhagen: I put a 50 on Greg Allen and many would consider him a tweener. Brett Gardner probably the best case scenario for that type of prospect.

1:44
felix: Speaking of Mazara, I know KLaw thought his ceiling was a superstar, but most people describe him as a 280-300 hitter with 25-30 bombs, which is good… really good, but falls short of a superstar. After a year in the majors, is that still his ceiling?

1:44
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with the Klawman.

1:44
Tom A.: Can we have a “prospect leaderboard” where FVs and tool grades are sortable and downloadable like stats? Maybe cover all players in org top 30s or all guys FV40+?

1:44
Eric A Longenhagen: We can, yes. I’m pretty sure we will.

1:45
Ethan: Are there any other big international free agent signings/prospects that could get done before next July 1st? I am very interested in Padres even further maximizing this period.

1:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. Norge Ruiz is the name to watch. Bonus amounts for any SD signees should b e taken with a grain of salt as it pertains to their talent. They’re pot committed to this class like LAD was last year and it makes sense for them to offer inflated bonuses to guys just to make sure they get them and have as huge a class as is possible. Like, Baez isn’t worth $3mil in a vacuum.

1:46
Josiah: Thoughts on Freudis Nova? I saw MLB.com gave him 60 Power/60 Speed, which is nuts. How far off is that?

1:47
Eric A Longenhagen: You can peep my own J2 reports and rankings. I think Jesse is right about the power/speed potential. Let me grab you a link for quick…

1:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s a link to the Sortable Board (basically the document requested a few questions ago)

1:48
Josiah: Just how toolsy is Lazarito?

1:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhat. 50 run, big raw, feel to hit is really poor right now, 40 arm.

1:49
Trixie: Best college pitcher of the 2017 Draft — Kyle Wright or Alex Faedo?

1:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Faedo for me right now but even college arms are volatile.

1:49
Sean: Any players outside the top 10 rounds of the last draft that have looked good or that you have noticed?

1:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Sweet question, give me a second on that one.

1:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Andrew Calica (CLE)

1:52
Eric A Longenhagen: I liked Danny Beddes from Utah Valley who PIT drafted late

1:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Keith Greishaber from LAA

1:52
Paul: Do the Angels regret drafting Thaiss over Rutherford?

1:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Rutherford fell due to $, not talent, LAA didn’t have the cash to get him done without mortgaging the rest of their class.

1:53
Matt: How much of these chats are people planning for their fantasy leagues, and how much do you think is people caring about prospects from their favourite teams?

1:53
Eric A Longenhagen: 50% fantasy, 30% people interested in their own teams, 20% just prospect nerds.

1:54
two-hole: What is a fair ceiling-comp for Cards SS Delvin Perez?

1:54
Eric A Longenhagen: Potential star

1:54
MB: I have been reading mixed reviews on Yohander. You think he can hack it in Texas as more than a backend league average SP?

1:54
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. I saw a potential 60 during ST last year. I’m a huge Mendez fan.

1:55
Josiah: Thoughts on the whole Cionel Perez fiasco, and on Perez as a prospect?

1:56
Eric A Longenhagen: There’s precedent for it with the Phillies and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. Sucks for the player but I understand HOU’s position as well. I really liked Perez as a prospect before learning about the injury and wrote him up on that J2 list I linked above.

1:56
Josiah: 40/45 command for Josh Staumont seems…optimistic. Does he really have 40 present command? Walked 100+ in 120 innings

1:57
Eric A Longenhagen: He did in AFL, in my opinion. But yes, I was generous as far as his whole season was concerned.

1:57
Greg: MLB had Royce Lewis #3 overall. Your writeup didn’t sound that high on him. Is he moving up boards?

1:57
Eric A Longenhagen: I love Lewis but have college pitching ahead of him right now.

1:57
Tondo: Your under the radar 2017 draft prospect is….?

1:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Tristan Beck

1:58
Greg: Best college hitter after Kendall in the draft?

2:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Schwarz, Harrison, Hiura, Skoug? One of those guys? Significant drop after Kendall for me.

2:00
Tondo: Who do you prefer, B.Enlow or Shane Baz?

2:00
Eric A Longenhagen: I like Enlow’s phys projection, Baz’s stuff.

2:01
Kingpin: DeJong for the Cards is likely not a SS long-term, right? But is his bat and approach good enough to make him at least a big league regular at 3B?

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Not a SS for me but neither were Aledmys Diaz and Jed Gyorko.

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: A big leaguer of some kind, probably a 40 or 45 FV right now.

2:02
Alex: Other than the Hector Olivera trade, what has been Coppy’s worst move so far? Is the Simmons trade looking pretty bad? Ellis already traded away, Newcomb’s stock is falling, and Aybar was everything we thought he wouldn’t be.

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Hiring Kiley McDaniel.

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: JK, someone needs to bring everyone coffee.

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: JK

2:03
Sam: What are the best 3 minor league parks in the country?

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t been to all of them but here are my top 3:

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: 1. Reading
2. Lake Elsinore (extra points for having the best tacos I’ve ever had a short drive from the park)
3. Lehigh Valley

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: 1,230: Trenton

2:05
Ben: Best prospect, or prospect you were extremely high on that didn’t make, excluding major injuries.

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Dom Brown

2:05
Campy: Future Position for Barreto, SS, 2B, CF?

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: CF for me

2:05
LudeBurger: So Kilome < Sixto?

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I prefer Kilome due to the physical projection but don’t think anyone is crazy for liking Sixto more. Better athlete, pitch projection arguably better due to developmental background.

2:06
First Man on the Sun: what’s up with dakota mekkes?

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Jordan Walden style delivery, deception, extension, all sorts of fin things going on there.

2:06
Erik: If the Phillies could redo the 2016 draft right now, would they still take Moniak with the first pick, or has someone else already passed him as the clear number one?

2:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Still Moniak with the hope that Rutherford and Groome fall far enough that Wentz gets to your next pick with Gowdy as a BATNA

2:07
BJ: How about Jharel Cotton? Does he rank over Gsellman, Stewart, Weaver, based on stuff and proximity? Seems like he has a rotation spot in 2017.

2:08
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d go Gsellman, Cotton, Weaver (you can pick between Cotton or Weaver I think) then Stew. Love Cotton’s change and cutter

2:09
dago: Any intriguing Royals’ prospect, whether included in the report or outside the 40FV, that caught your attention based on personal write-ups or otherwise?

2:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Rudy Martin wasn’t on the list but is a personal favorite of mine. Little speedster who plays hard.

2:09
Rich : Please can you give me Brinson’s offensive profile

2:10
Eric A Longenhagen: 20/20 guy with good D in CF and lots of K’s

2:10
Trevor: Do you think Matt Thaiss has the ability to be a poor man’s Kyle Schwarber for the Halos?

2:10
Eric A Longenhagen: Gut: I think Thaiss will put up good numbers at Hi-A and be traded. Not close to Schwarber who is a freak.

2:10
Daniel: Are fan allowed to go to Instructional League games? How about the Gulf Coast League? How do we get in?

2:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Just show up.

2:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Bring beer

2:11
BK: Post-draft, do you (or scouts) ever allow for SSS performance to alter your thoughts on a player pre-draft? For example, Bo Bichette tore the cover off the ball over 22 games w/ 15 XBH. Would anyone value him differently now compared to early June?

2:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Some probably would but not me. Unless there’s a change to something mechanical, SSS numbers are just that.

2:13
Jeb: Was Rutherford worth mortgaging NYY’s class? Are there any other prospects from that class?

2:13
Eric A Longenhagen: Where they got Rutherford made it worth it, I think. I like Nolan Martinez.

2:13
JS : Have we seen the last of the great Cuba to US talent influx?

2:14
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think we’ll ever see a deluge like we have over the last decade again. Wrote about it here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/its-the-hardball-times-baseball-annual-2017/

2:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Big name to watch for now is Luis Robert.

2:15
Anthony: What would be a 90% outcome for Wander Javier?

2:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Like 90th percentile? Perrenial All Star.

2:16
Jeb: What’s so terrible about Trenton?

2:16
Eric A Longenhagen: The parking situation, the scouting section is split down the middle.

2:17
Big Joe Mufferaw: Does Kyle Holder have enough bat to be an everyday SS?

2:17
Eric A Longenhagen: I do not believe so.

2:17
Guest: Lake Elsinore is a good place — do tell about the Taco’s, gotta name for the place?

2:17
Eric A Longenhagen: El Unico

2:17
Mashed Potato: How does one get a baseball front office job?

2:19
Eric A Longenhagen: There’s no clear path but: Learn to code, come from a financial situation that allows your work to freely be taken advantage of.

2:19
Nick: What HS guys not getting much attention now could vault up draft boards come June?

2:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Sam Carlson

2:20
Mike: Drafted players often get as many or more at bats in pro ball than they do in college/high school in the year they get drafted. Why is one considered small sample size, but the other not (no sarcasm, serious question)? Thanks

2:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, Bernardo Flores is another guy for you. 7th round but still…

2:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’m pooped. We

2:21
Eric A Longenhagen: will talk again next week. Check out the Royals list from yesterday. I should have Detroit done today which means that will be up this week. I’m moving on to CIN after that. Peace, love, baseball.

e>





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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