Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/30

Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone. Would like to extend condolences to the family and friends of Kevin Towers, who people in baseball held in high regard.

Blooper: How is the outlook for Jose Siri? He crushed it last year

Eric A Longenhagen: I buy it. Think he’s talented enough to make the approach (which is horrendous) work.

Rick C: What would an Atlanta package have looked like to match what the Brewers gave up for Yelich?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure there’s a clear match on prospect quality/readiness and package depth. Maybe something like Soroka, Anderson, Riley and a 40?

Scuffy McGee: Do the A’s have a true top of the rotation guy in the minors? Puk is a little wild for that designation I think

Eric A Longenhagen: I tend to agree with you but I think Puk has that kind of stuff. And I feel better about his body and strike-throwing than I did last year at this time. Think Puk is at least trending up.

Tommy N.: Would you consider Lucchesi or Logan Allen some of the better lefthanded prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think both have a chance to be average big league rotation pieces but don’t think they’re on the Puk, Gohara, Gore, McKay tier or anything like that.

Tim: What are your thoughts about Brent Rooker?  What’s his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lotta pressure on him to hit since he’s 1B/cOF-only and not very good at either spot. The raw power to clear that offensive bar is there, certainly, and I’m encouraged about what he did last summer. Maybe he’s Pat Burrell?

Bork: What are your prospects for lunch looking like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not looking great, it was a hectic weekend at the Longenhagen house and I couldn’t tell you what the fridge looks like right now.

Bad Hop: Which prospect that the marlins traded for see the show first?

Eric A Longenhagen: I expect either or both of Brinson and Sierra to start the year in the Majors.

Show Hey O’Tawny: Is Bo Bichette a SS for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Mario: Is Dustin Peterson being slept on for the Braves? Could he be a solution for LF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe a little bit, but the realistic outcome there is the smaller half of a platoon. He’s a prospect, easy to lose sight of a guy with that profile in an org with so much premium talent.

Longshot: Better Reds SS prospect….Garcia or Downs?

Eric A Longenhagen: We had Garcia ahead of Down on the Reds list (to which you can find a link on the FG front page) but they’re similar. Both have a chance to hit and for a bit of pop, Garcia’s tools are just a bit more electric. He’s faster, has the better arm and a better chance of staying at short.

Slurve: What is your overall take on Miami’s new haul of players irregardless of who they traded away?  How are they looking for say 2021?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the guys they’ve gotten back quite a bit. Would give the reason they’re trading everyone a 20, the baseball execution of it a 55.

Tom: Are there certain minor league teamwide philosophies (like the Pirates fastball approach over strikeout numbers) which hurts perceived prospect value?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, great question. I suppose if you value players more highly than others for a specific reason then by definition  you value your own players more than the rest of baseball, and there are certainly fuzzier team philosophies that aren’t treated kindly in public spaces like ours that skew things. In general though, most scouts/execs seem open to lots of different strategies of scouting and player dev.

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: How does Brian Anderson fit with the fish this year? 500 AB’s? or will the Marlins give up on him if hes hitting .210 in May?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, they should give him every opportunity to succeed for a full season. If his throwing accuracy gets ironed out I think he’s an average everyday player.

Tom: Is Thairo Estrada more than a utility player at the MLB level?  What it would take for him to be a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a 45 which is either a high-end utility guy or a low-end regular.  Freddy Galvis, Jorge Polanco, Jordy Mercer..that type of player.

Mr Padre: Am I wrong to think that Franchy Cordero and Lewis Brinson are not that different as prospects.  And yet one is a top 40 overall prospect and the other is not even a top 10 org prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’d disagree with that. Franchy has huge physical tools (like Brinson) but Brinson has shown an ability to make adjustments multiple times as a pro, he shows some semblance of patience at the palte. Franchy keeps swinging at everything.

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: I feel like Luplow and Kramer for the Pirates tend to be relatively overlooked.  Is it just harder to evaluate guys who develop skills later in their minor league trajectories?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Kramer. I think swing engineering will change the malleable skills we look for in amateur players. We’ll move away from athleticism and toward hand-eye, bat control, etc. because we can teach you to lift the ball.

Spotted cow: Who are some of the best draft eligible college bats I should pay attention to before draft talk geers up

Eric A Longenhagen: I love Nicky Madrigal and Jeremy Eierman. Also like Tristan Pompey, Griffin Conine, am still a little skeptical of Greyson Jenista but sounds like I need to re-evaluate that based on feedback we’re getting as we circulate a draft board.

DR: Pache has sorta been the prospect nerd darling of the off season.  Is he likely to be a bigger impact player than someone like Manny Margot?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tat’s an interesting comp. There’s a chance that’s what Pache is, that he’s a 70 glove in CF who can hit but not for meaningful power. Margot has the physical components to do more than that but the swing doesn’t allow for it. Hopefully while Pache is still young the Braves can unlock some of that stuff. I there’s potential for both scenario’s to play out, but we’re talking about a potential elite defensive CF so there’s a good chance he’s some sort of valuable big leaguer no matter what happens.

steeev: Eric! Good morning.  Are the Nats valuing Robles and/or Soto too highly by making them off-limits in Realmuto talks?  Kieboom + others for Realmuto sounds like an insultingly low offer (insulting to MIA, not Kieboom, who has an 80 grade name)

Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, Steeev. I actually like Kieboom a lot and don’t think that’s a terrible deal for either side.

Prospect Hound: I love the organization prospect reports. What’s the order and schedule for getting those done?

Eric A Longenhagen: Top 100 and other big picture prospect content comes out all next week. Org reports will continue to trickle out through spring training. We realize the depth we like to explore on those isn’t time friendly, and I take responsibility for that but also am too stubborn and obsessive to change it.

Brandon M: Are there any Rangers prospects you could see sneaking into the back end of mid season top-100 lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, you can probably guess most of those names. Matuella, Cody, healthy Palumbo maybe. The guy I’m already pounding the table for is Pedro Gonzalez.

Jimbo: Of Jordy Barley, Gabriel Arias, Justin Lopez or Luis Almanzar, which one is the starting shortstop for the 2021 Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: Arias, but I like all of those players.

Sally Fan: I know it is hard to evaluate from video, but is it fair to say that Ryan Vilade has plus bat speed?  I was shocked to see in his video how quickly he whips through the zone.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Adam: How many years have to pass before we can say that the Padres did not properly capitalize on their 2016 Draft bonanza?

Eric A Longenhagen: 5? I’m not a Buddy Reed fan, but give the arms more time. They were all coming off of injury. Also think the ceiling-chasing/buy low process was sound in this case even if the results don’t pan out.

Ronnie: Domingo to CLE for Mejia. Which team has to add pieces to even things out valuewise?

Eric A Longenhagen: Milwaukee

Dan: I was re-reading some old chats, and it sounds like you’re low on Jeisson Rosario.  Is he a tools over skills guy?  also what gives rise to the effort/focus questions that were hinted at?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s a skills guy. Great hand-eye and bat control. It’s what allowed to to succeed in the AZL despite taking lots of terrible swings. I still believe in his talent but I’ve been watching him for over a year now and the effort level isn’t always there.

Dan: Did the Cubs make a mistake not drafting Pearson at 27?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think there was a cogent draft day argument for Little over Pearson, especially when you take a look at the rest of the Cubs draft (I don’t know if the quarter million difference between Pearson and Little bonuses means Cubs can’t take Estrada later) but in a vacuum right now I’d rather have Pearson

FirefliesFan: It feels like Andres Gimenez became the consensus #1 prospect for the Mets this offseason by default. Do you think Gimenez would have still ranked #1 had Chris Flexen not been promoted to the Majors (assuming he continued to dominate AA) and/or had Desmond Lindsay or Thomas Szapucki stayed healthy in 2017.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d tend to think he’d still be up there. Premium defensive profile, very advanced. That stuff is rare.

minor league fan: if you had to pick one level of baseball, or one league, that you could only scout that level, which would you find most indicative of a player’s future?  which is the most fun?

Eric A Longenhagen: Question 1: Area Codes for amateur ball, Double-A for pro. Question 2: Area Codes, Instructional League

Aramis Ramirez: Are we finally going to see Bubba Starling in 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe so, and I hope kills it.

Sharp: Alzolay is 23 and still only has 2 good pitches.  Time to convert to closer material?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, think you give him some more time to harness this newfound gas. That had to be the developmental focus last year, not a third pitch. I agree with you that there may come a time that decision has to be made, though. i just don’t think it’s now.

Jake: I know the Top 100 is arbitrary and it doesn’t really mean a whole lot, but it seems that the Cubs have a lot of players in the 101-200 range, who with a big year (or a healthy year) could really make the jump. Yes/no?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, so we have two 50s in that system (Ademan and Alzolay) so you can call them top 100 if you want because you can kind of shift all the 50s around based on your team’s needs/tastes/philosophy.  After that, a healthy Lange, de la Cruz, Little or Estrada season could move those guys up, I love Miguel Amaya…they have depth, that system isn’t lifeless

Pablo: Did you expect this type of power from Gary Sanchez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah has always had this kind of power, the approach and nonarm defensive ability were the question marks.

Eric: Nicky Delmonico can .260/25 this year, or is that too aggressive?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re heavy on the dingers

Dood: If I can cash in on Monte Harrison and use him as a major piece in a fantasy deal, will I be regretting it later?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess that depends on how you manage your fantasy team. I’m in a Diamond Mind league and only roster players that I like watching. If I were you Monte would be untouchable unless I were getting a current big league stud.

Jason: Orioles had some decent pitchers out of last years draft – Who has the nod for biggest upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like Hall and think he’d have been a top 15 pick if not for the makeup. Lowther is fascinating and was on my pre=draft 100. KATOH liked him, too. But the ceiling there is probably lower.

Eric: When do you think Kyle Tucker reaches the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he could be ready this year but not sure Houston’s outfield depth allows space for him unless multiple parties are struggling and Tucker is killing it.

Mark: if the dodgers package Keibert Ruiz with Matt Kemp, do they need to include any more than $10m in the deal? Do you feel strongly enough with Connor Wong and Will Smith to pull the trigger on that?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Wong and Smith enough to move Ruiz if a deal is right (to say nothing of just moving him because I think it helps me win a WS) but if I’m the Dodgers, what’s money?

otis: What are your thoughts on Jhailyn Ortiz after what he’s done over the past year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just more confident that the bat to profile at 1B is there than I was a year ago.

Greg: Which team has the best collection of far away guys that are volatile but have great upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: SD, MIN, TB

Eric A Longenhagen: OAK

Mark: What type of ceiling are we talking about for Sal Romano?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he’s a #4/5 starter

Jake: Regarding teams crying poor and not being able to spend x dollars on player y. Isn’t it possible both sides are true? The FO might not be able to spend more, because ownership could allow them to but chooses not to? Seems like majority of outrage on issues like this should be targeted toward ownership, no? Assume FO hands are tied by budgets they don’t set.

Eric A Longenhagen: Agree

Dan: 80 power and 40 hit or 80 hit and 20 power?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably the former if all else is equal, but I’d take Dee Gordon ahead of Khris Davis

Jay: Should there be any concern about Francisco Mejia needing to run high BABIPs for his bat to play at the Major League level given his lack of walks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, there is some. But most think this is one of those freakish guys who can just rake. The quality of the contact is so good and he finds all kinds of funky ways to get the bat head on the ball.

Larry: Albert Abreu or Luis Medina?

Eric A Longenhagen: Abreu

Tim: How did your outlook on Albert Abreu change during the 2017 season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Meh, I don’t think it did. Has elite stuff, good chance he ends up in the bullpen. Line his stuff up with Reynaldo Lopez, who do you like more and why? That’s a pretty good litmus test.

Tom: What would make you excited about a player in Dominican summer league?

Eric A Longenhagen: Size, body composition, athleticism, fluidity and then some kind of unteachable skill like an ability to spin a breaking ball or great bat control.

Craig: How much is a 55 FV player worth? Financially

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: Know that I’m not stoked on slapping dollar values on kids’ heads and think the subjective nature of player eval plus many other team-specific factors makes this a harrowing subject from an analytical perspective, in my opinion.

Connor: Thoughts on Scott Kingery, and his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I love Scotty Jetpacks. Chance to hit .300, play golg glove defense at 2B, steal a bunch of bases, and I buy that he could hit 16-20 homers annually.

Eric A Longenhagen: Golg Gloves(tm)

Jad: Gleyber Torres will play ___ games for the NYY in 2018

Eric A Longenhagen: 102

Buff: Has Heliot Ramos gotten some undeserved hype as the top prospect in a weak system, or is he truly someone to get excited about?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tools are crazy. This ball hit the roof of a house just outside the A’s complex. https://streamable.com/6880u

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s raw, but has at least 6 arm, 6 raw power, 7 runner, great young man and teammate.

RIck Hahn: I know you loved Robert – how about Jake Burger?  Will the bat play?  Love his attitude and discipline.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m skeptical of his ability to stay at 3B, but I buy the bat and he seems to be doing everything he can to stay at third.

LudeBurger: What are the prospects of impending global doom?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on which of any number of potential causes you want to point to. I’d say ‘impending’ excludes the climate, so maybe like 10-12%.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fold in climate eventuality and it’s probably 30%? Brusdar Graterol!

Not a Phillies Fan: Thoughts on Brusdar Graterol’s ceiling? I feel like he could pull a Forrest Whitely this year

Eric A Longenhagen: I didn’t plan it this way but this was literally the next question in the queue.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Brusdar! but he’s a short strider who some scouts haven’t seen a changeup from, so there’s pretty significant relief risk. But he’s upper-90s with a plus slider.

Mitchell White: Receive any other reports on Mitchell White having a higher velocity than you recorded early in the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him during ST (he was up to 97) and during fall instrux (he was up to 92)

Guest: would you keep any of these prospects 16 team dynasty?F mejia,FBarreto, B.Rutherford, Y.Alvarez,or J.Hader

Eric A Longenhagen: Mejia, Barreto (gap) Hader and Yadi (gap), Rutherford

Biscuit: Think German Marquez has another gear in him or is last year about what we can expect?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s more in there

Luke: Trevor Stephan looked really good throughout the season in NYP. Does he stay a starter? or end up in the pen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had him projected in relief out of college but NYY have been great at developing college arms so maybe there’s a chance he starts.

Jorge Alfaro: I’m out of options and will play in the majors this year.  How bad will I be?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s so tough to nail down because he’s so exceptionally talented but frustrating. Something about his bat path seems flimsy to me but I can’t put my finger on it. There’s also a chance a tweak unlocks everything and he’s a force of nature.

CW: How aggressive will Luis Robert’s assignment be this year / how aggressive would you be?  Do you think he’ll hit his way to AA this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he sees Low and Hi-A this year

Eric A Longenhagen: And I’d assign him to Low-A. He’d dominate extended just on tools, needs to see full season pitching to develop

Monte Hall: Let’s make a deal! Dan Straily for Nick Williams?

Eric A Longenhagen: Show me the other door

Slamboni: What’s the difference between Keston Hiura and Willie Calhoun? They both feel like the identical player. I keep picturing the two spidermans pointing at each other meme

Eric A Longenhagen: Hiura has a better chance to do something defensively because his issues were health-related, not about unfixable physical limitations. Ii have a 6 hit 6 power on Willie and just shy of that for Hiura. Don’t think you’re super far off on the hit and power grades

Mountain Man: Robert Tyler didn’t pitch at all last year? Any word on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah man, I know I have notes on what/why somewhere but I can’t recall off the top of my head. I think I talked to someone who saw him throw during the fall but I don’t think I saw him myself. Sorry. Pretty sure he had a shoulder issue.

Willow: Any additional info on Robinson Ortiz (LAD)?  Ceiling – #3 or possible top of rotation.  Stuff?   Got me interested!

Eric A Longenhagen: He was buried in this fall’s Hunter Greene notes: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hunter-greene-rangers-conversion-arms-…

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Who is the most interesting non-pitching prospect in the Tiger’s system and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: So many interesting guys. Paredes is interesting because both scouts and in-office analysts have been on him since he was 17. I like McMillan’s toolset but HS catchers haven’t panned out at all the last 10 years. Lugo is fun to watch, probably a utility bat. Reynaldo Rivera also interesting. Think the Tigers had Trackman stuff on him other teams didn’t.

AK: What are a couple key things you can scout in person, but wouldn’t be able to pick up on TV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Defensive first step/footwork, some in-game procedural stuff, general athleticism.

Sandy Ravage: Which relevant prospect (top 150-200 guy) has an 80 grade name? personally I cast my vote for Brusdar Graterol

Eric A Longenhagen: Brusdar!

Eric A Longenhagen: Seuly Matias, Frecier Perez, Lucius Fox

Salt: Which MiLB Park is your favorite?

Eric A Longenhagen: Coca-Cola Park in Allentown

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I must go. See you next week. Read FG articles in the meantime.