Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/30/26
Happy Friday, party people. We're slated to get something like 2-to-3 inches of rain this weekend in Phoenix and it's pouring at the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound right already. Looking forward to a weekend of Emo/Shoegaze writing like when I was in PA. For now, we chat.
Jefferson Rojas outlook changed much in the last 3 months?
I don't believe so. Still projects as a good everyday infielder, either SS or 3B, who's top 20 at his position. Good get for them. Folks can watch him most days playing in LIDOM for Gigantes. He and Roldy Brito are often in the starting lineup.
Candy corn?
I'll eat it. It's not high on my pref list but I'm always curious enough to try it again. Especially the pumpkins.
Given the Yankees aging core and the likelihood that Kilby isn’t a SS long term, do you see him being a guy they push pretty aggressively provided he continues to hit as he moves up?
I think so, it's reasonable to expect him to be promoted at roughly the same pace Lombard was if he keeps hitting. I think them sending him here after he barely played this year was fairly aggressive and he's thrived. Wouldn't chock me if he starts at Hudson Valley.
As a Mets fan, what happened to Jacob Reimer this year? Between he and Clifford it feels like the corner bats we thought were close maybe aren't coming at all. Or is that too harsh?
Clifford was always going to be flawed in a way that left you disappointed, assuming you bought into peak expectations 2-ish years ago. His reasonable outcome was always more of a platoon bat. Reimer I was in on and remain on to a degree. He's better than his injury-altered 2026 statline, not just betting that he'll be better when healthy but looking at his underlying data, which is more favorable than his surface output…
The problem with Reimer is he's maxed out, tightly wound corner guy. If he's gonna K a quarter of the time and have roughly average power, does that really play in a meaningful way? I think it plays some, but not as a top 20 player at 1B if he ends up there alone.
Position changes- rainel to third is that a real thing- Jesus made where does he play? Seems odd that he only played ss this year- seems like they’re committed to Pratt at short
I guess I'd wanna see Rainiel play third base before declaring yes or no. He's a heavier kid but built a lot like Max Muncy, who has been able to do it well enough to stay at 3B and moonlight at 2B for a while. I think a position change is what gets his bat in the lineup soonest because he otherwise still has so much work to do as a catcher.
Made I agree they should have (or at least should in LIDOM) see what happens with him at 3B. Pratt is the better defender. Joey Ortiz and David Hamilton should not be blocking a potential 30-homer 3B.
Prediction for where Skubal lands?
I'll go off the board a bit and say Braves
They have a lot of money coming off the books in the next few years, Acuna and Sale and Profar, Albies, Suarez… it adds up. Kinda wonder if there's a Ketel/Acuna change of scenery trade in here somewhere? One more year of Albies makes that less a fit.
Any names popping up from either instructs or the bridge league?
Instructs ended a couple weeks ago. Most of the good players are guys you already know. I thought Angeibel Gomez looked good, the Giants infielders, Grindlinger, Comeau… You should take a peek at my pieces from that window of time I wrote a ton as it was going on.
Prediction for the largest change to MiLB/draft/amateur to come out of the lockout?
I think we will get an agreement before that stuff is ironed out. They'll say "here's the deal, let's play baseball." and then will hammer out draft/int'l stuff as an afterthought in the weeks following.
Does John Peck have starting shortstop upside? He kind of came out of nowhere but he has some nice underlying numbers, including his player comps on Savant.
I like him but consider him more of a good utility type rather than a first division regular.
does Vance Honeycutt make the main list next year? OPS and EVs look pretty, but he's still K-ing ~30% with "empty" (non-competitive) walks
Back on there. The defense will allow him to play a role. Crushed for me yesterday, hit a ball 108 to dead CF. I agree the K's are too scary to project him as a consistent 2+ WAR guy but he'll play a role.
" Bonemer entered the AFL season as the one of this group I was worried I’d come away feeling more skeptical about because of how much whiffing he did during the regular season. Instead, I think his power is weaponized by sufficient barrel feel. He is likely to be a left field-only defender in the big leagues, but he could have output similar to Teoscar Hernández." His arm not strong enough for RF? Is he just in center to have easier reads?
Not a natural thrower from the OF whatsoever.
Does Seaver King start next season in the MLB? What are your thoughts on his ceiling?
I think Washington will look to maximize years of control there. I was super high on King coming out of college, became pretty skeptical at the end of 2025 because he had zero ability to pull the ball (I'm not a "pull everything!" guy but I do think it's scary when you can't do it at all) and was really shaky on defense. He had an awesome season, and needs a re-eval from scratch this list cycle. Washington's new regime absolutely made their hitters better right away and I'm willing to bet he's a true arrow up guy rather than a product of this year's wacky minor league offensive environment.
Wildly close lightning strikes here, like cartoon sound effect lightning.
I swapped my Dax Kilby for Grady Emerson in my long term keeper league. Did I screw up?
You should consider it a lateral move I guess, id have to know way more about your league and roster to give you a cogent answer.
I'm curious how to best deal with a bad year of production for younger prospect bats – guys like Jansel Luis or Gabriel Rodriguez? How do you weight production on toolsy guys in full season ball?
It's tough. You look for reasons to give them the benefit of the doubt. Were they young for the level, were they injured, does the surface production deviate from the underlying data in any way?
ATL farmhands Owen Carey and/or Isaiah Drake make any notable impressions during in-person looks in the AFL?
Drake can really really run, he has a RB's physicality. Can he hit enough to be anything more than a specialist? He has an interesting data profile (huge launch, roughly average contact) but visually his feel to his is crude. Carey is on time to pull, probably LF only defender (30 arm), like him as an eventual corner platoon bat, though it'll depend on how strong he gets. They're both prospects, but not likely impact guys.
i know this is likely the million dollar question, but is Bryce Rainer swing something that can be fixable in offseason to return to hos rookie season contact rates?
I don't think it's something you actively tinker with yet, I think he might shorten up naturally as he deals with failure and is forced to adjust.
How do you balance (your time, focus, etc.) making sure you nail your evals on top 100 dudes with having 1200+ reports on prospects?
It's the toughest thing, honestly. Like yesterday I went to Peoria with Laurila. We went earlier than I would have on my own because Laurila interviews players, and that happens well before the game. Then it's nearly impossible to focused on writing in the press box because people in there wanna socialize (which I get), then Patrick Reilly was useful to see for four innings in perfect weather, then nobody else threw strikes and we had like 24 combined walks. I'd have rather been doing anything but watching three pitchers be required to finish an inning. But once your'e in the bowl with the scouts it's kind of a faux pas to leave early, they don't know you're going back to the box to do more work. Anyway, yes this part of it has been the toughest thing for me to wrangle in ten years of doing this. Marrying the depth I'm capable of and the depth that is a differentiator for us as a site (along with the writing quality imo) with the broad, Taylor Swift type tastes of the reading and listening audience that wants everything done right now and could care less about the 40s and 35+ guys.
For a dollar: Which outfielder in the Cardinals system will have the highest peak season WAR? Walker, Baez, Peete, Frias, Condon?
I think Frias.
Chase Harlan is down as a guy you want to see more of this fall – do you have any specifics you want to assess with him or more just a general get eyes on?
I just want more looks at him playing defense to feel better about where we project him. The league average wRC+ at 3B this year was 98. At 1B it was 111. Where he plays defense really matters to how he stacks among his peers.
Congrats to the Brewers! Do you think they'll realize more out of their side of the Peralta trade (Sproat, Jett Williams) in 2027, or is that shaping up as a lose-lose trade?
I still think Sproat will be good. Jett will be a role-player.
Any chance we get another visual scouting explanation series? Or perhaps a few ABs/plays from one player where you break down scouting them from the basics (what do you see mechanically) to the more advanced?
Yeah I want to do a video podcast series that takes you through the list-making processes.
Any flawed prospect that should consider switching to football to replace Tanner McKee? Or play O-line? Or call plays?
How has Elijah Green not started playing football at Georgia yet?
What's the next "thing" you see teams like the Dodgers, Brewers and Rays doing from either a development or player acquisition standpoint, that will cause the rest of the league to play copy cat?
Brewers tailoring bat design to the player's swing.
Is Axel Plaz's bat good enough for him to be a regular? Is Rafael Flores' bat good enough that he plays daily for the Pirates?
Plaz is Botero Jorge Alfaro. Flores will play a big role, yeah. How many catchers really play every day anymore? It's only the top couple guys. They almost always share time and I think Flores will, too, but thrive as a hitter in that role catching 80 games rather than 120.
How has Brooks Auger looked in the AFL? Still a viable path to being a starter?
Built like a starter, moves like a starter, commands it like a reliever. Think in that org he's a swingman.
The question about Reimer and Clifford makes me wonder: aren’t Baty and Vientos still ahead of those guys in the (young and at least somewhat unproven) Mets corner infield queue? Or is the cement dry there?
Definitely stacked ahead of Reimer/Clifford. Ronny Mo, too. It's a deep group, they 've given themselves lots of bites at the apple. Some of these guys regress, some progress, and when you have enough of them around you can capture the peak years of the best couple guys and do okay.
How do you evaluate a young, high upside, projectable prospect who misses 1-2 years due to injury? Yairo Padilla, for example. Should we assume his development "paused" or is it more likely that he's been progressing off the field?
It's tough, but Ethan Salas is proof of concept that these guys shouldn't simply be dismissed because of lost time.
Can Chandler Simpson improve his arm? Very unnatural throwing motion
Nah, feels like he's just in 20/30 area and you live with it.
Jake Cook didn't have much hitting experience before the draft. Is he developing as you would expect? How did he look in Arizona?
I love this guy. Has run sub-3.9 for me multiple times, which is like Billy Hamilton fast. Except this guy has more size than Hamilton and is relatively green as a hitter. Think he has a chance to be pretty good. At the very least he's going to be super fun to watch develop, or try to.
Has Zion Rose passed Burress with his AFL performance?
Burress looked good during instructs and I wish they had AFL'd him rather than Guedez. I think I'd still take Burress, just a more explosive athlete in the box.
How do you see the looming lockout affecting the pro hiring cycle and any player development efforts around spring training/opening month of MiLB season?
I think some of the more budget-conscious teams will have fewer additions to ops this offseason. Same as COVID and the last lockout.
What’s more likely for Derek Curiel? He’s able to stick in center or develop enough power to be a regular? As a Bucs fan, I’d love both, but both feels like a tall ask.
Let's see what his body looks like in February. These guys can get in the weight room in their early 20s and get pretty strong pretty fast.
Who are you most interested in seeing how they develop further – if you think they can – now that they’ve reached the majors?: Spencer Jones, Victor Mesa, Cole Carrigg
Carrigg is the toolsiest of that group.
Not a question-video podcast series for the lists would be must watch!
I've had this idea for a long time but clearing music and video rights could be a nightmare. I obviously shoot a ton of my own video but sometimes broadcast footage is just better for showing what it is I want to show… we'll see.
Where would Miguel Hernandez have gone in the 26 draft of he were eligible? When looking at his metrics, he seems impressive and I prefer him over the Cards actual draftee Condon.
Good question, Bubs. I think he'd be a 700k type in the draft. Sub-70% contact rate guy is scary for Low-A, good plate discipline and power for his age. There's something there but not a first round something
Can you try to develop a pitcher for an Aaron Ashby-type role?
I think you develop them as starters and then it becomes clear their best role is this Ashby type thing. Grant Taylor, etc.
Dynasty question: I can only keep two of Johnny King, Kash Mayfield, and Bishop Letson. Who should I cut loose?
Kash
Can you give us an idea of how to think about AFL as a level of competition? Both in terms of "who they're up against" and also "who should be sent and who isn't ready"?
High-A pitchers in a Cal League hitting environment. The bullpens here are always bad. I don't know how to solve for this because the pitchers sent here are almost always sent here because they were hurt during the regular season.
Okay friends, great chat today. I am speaking at First Pitch Arizona next week during our scheduled chat time, so I will need to either change day/time next week. Be sure to check the chat schedule on the site for updates, I'll try to come up with a solution that is creative and fun (like maybe chatting live during Fall Stars?)
TTFN
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Eric’s response to the question about balancing the 1200 vs 100 was fantastic, really appreciate the insight into what goes into all that depth and breadth of coverage. And thank you for doing it – it sets you and the FanGraphs prospect team apart.