Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, 10/17

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, we’re gonna get underway in a minute, just waiting for the go ahead from Carson on my piece for today…

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ll link to it once it’s posted. Let’s get rolling…

Julio Pepper: I recently discovered the existence of Shedric Long, and haven’t been able to find a single thing written about him. His 2016 numbers look really good and he just turned 21; anything there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Bat speed, power, can run a little bit. His approach is a little over aggressive and scouts don’t know if he has the pure bat speed to allow for all that Gary Sheffield wiggling at the upper levels but he’s definitely a prospects.

GPT: Give Giants fans a tiny preview into the prospect rankings, which player are you relatively higher than most, or a player you’ve heard good things about from others that you didn’t expect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Giants will be out next week. I’m high on Melvin Adon and Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds shouldn’t be a shocker but I think he might be the #2 guy in the system.

leprekhan: The Braves’ Ronald Acuna has been getting a lot of love of late. Do you see him as a top 100 prospect and what is a realistic ceiling for him in your mind?

Eric A Longenhagen: Plays CF, hits 20+ bombs. He’s really good.

Blue Moon: What are your general thoughts on the Cubs prospect development strategy? With little focus on pitching, more on position players, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=chc

Eric A Longenhagen: Just a random, cyclical thing, not a sign of the org’s priorities in my opinion.

CamdenWarehouse: As a prospect did Javy Baez show promise of the defense that he has shown this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes.

James Ryu: Half of first-rounder in every year’s June Amateur Draft never make it to MLB or make minimal contribution for brief period if they do. But they definitely get scout’s attentions because tools were there… Besides faulty makeup and injury, what could possibly have gone wrong with those once highly regarded prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams don’t have the infrastructure in place to help them succeed.

Ben: Do you think the Astros have a future ML catcher in their system? Starting or just backup?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jake Rogers is at least a backup catcher.

Nientsniew: What’s the best way to see that pitchers repeat their motion or make their pitches look similar with arm speed and coming out of the hand? Are there indicators to look for scouting wise?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts are literally looking at the arm speed and slot themselves, not some other indicator.

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Do you think Kevin Newman sticks at short? Could he potentially be a September call up as early as this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes on the first question, maybe on the second

Trevor : Any underrated padres prospects you like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Michel Miliano? I wouldn’t consider him underrated because I’m the guy who does the rating, but I really like him and he got only $450K this year, which is small compared to his peers at the top of the class.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Ramon Laureano?? While I’m not suggesting he’s better than Moncada, most of Laureano’s numbers in 416 AB over A+ and AA in 2016 were better than Moncada’s at the same levels (in almost the same number of AB)… I know Laureano is drawing a little bit of interest now, but why isn’t he being talked about more??

Eric A Longenhagen: He has looked incredible out here, is absolutely whacking everything. I think he’s a top 5 prospect in that system.

Eric A Longenhagen: As for the Moncada thing , I’d encourage you to avoid scouting the statline.

Mike: Now that Kaprielian is back and still has the increased velocity, what do you think his ceiling is?

Eric A Longenhagen: Top of the rotation starter.

NutButters: Do you think Gleyber will be ready for AA pitching next year, which will only be his age 20 season? Or do the Yanks keep him at A+ until he hits enough?

Eric A Longenhagen: He sure as hell looks ready, though his numbers at Trenton next year might not reflect his true offensive prowess because it isn’t a fun place to hit.

jim : tough scheduling for AFL day games today. Cardinals traffic in Glendale and surprise is well…. surprise

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, I’m not doubling up today and working on the Giants list during the day instead. Scottsdale tonight, though.

Ron: What do you think of the Angels’ Matt Thaiss, Jahmai Jones, Taylor Ward, and Brandon Marsh thus far?

Eric A Longenhagen: So far I’m :
Yay: Jones and Marsh
Nay: Thaiss and Ward

Eric A Longenhagen: Marsh hasn’t played but has begun doing cage work and the power potential is pretty big there. Jones just hits, he has always hit and I think he can play CF. Ward is going to take a while to evaluate because he’s a catcher but he hasn’t looked good in my limited AFL views so far (we’re only 5 games into AFL remember) and Thaiss didn’t look great during instrux but he could just be gassed, his season started in February at UVA.

Dan: Chance to see Dubon yet? Has he looked different since you last saw him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have and yes it’s different, he looks worse defensively than he did mid-year. I’m keeping an open mind but still not a fan of his for now.

Modest Fagersbomb: Personally I find it much easier to see pitch movement from the tv angle, centerfield, than from the typical scouts vantage point behind the backstop. Obviously when attending a game the latter is preferable, but you do you make a point of finding television footage of a pitcher you’re scouting, if it’s available?

Eric A Longenhagen: No but I do think the CF camera can be useful for evaluating catchers.

OklahomaBrave: Thoughts on Travis Demerritte? Keith law mentioned how improved his defense at 2b looked. Could he end up supplanting Alibies as 2b of the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has looked really good defensively and I think if he’s a 7 defender at 2B (is that even a thing? I guess it is) then I’ll live with the horrendous approach and occasional power production every day. But Albies is still a better prospect.

Andy: What are the top 5 prospect pools right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: 1. Sarah’s pool, because of the basketball hoop
2. Eric’s pool (plus floating devices)

Eric A Longenhagen: 3. Tyrone Poole

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m out of pools

VandyMan: AZ’s Jared Miller climbed a lot of levels this year. Had a chance to see him? Could he be a high leverage reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so.

Andy: Which minor league team had the most talent? You can use this season’s rosters or where they are projected to start next season.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hartford and Lehigh Valley were pretty good. Billings had some guys come thru late in the year that made for a fun roster

Philip from New New York: Prospect lists? I’m pretty excited for them so I was just wondering when we might get some.

Eric A Longenhagen: Dbacks are Thursday (or at some point this week, pretty sure it’s going to be thursday). It’s done, we’re all just trying to figure out how to make it look pretty right now.

TD: Besides Jason Groome, what other potential starting pitching prospects are in the Red Sox lower levels that you are high on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shawaryn looked solid at instrux

Mike: What did you project from lindor when you saw him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had him as the #1 prospect in the game ahead of Bryant, Russell and Correa. He was the most explosive defender I’ve seen and was pretty clearly going to hit .300+ with 12-15 homers.

Pat: Do you think James Kaprielian has the ceiling of a top 25 starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Eric A Longenhagen: He was 94-97 with a plus slider and changeup last week. It’s really good.

ryan: what factors do you consider when assigning risk grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: Proximity to the Majors, injury history, riskiness of the skillset, maybe makeup if I have good sources for it

Zack: If you could get Gleyber or Frazier from the Yanks, who are you taking?

Eric A Longenhagen: Torres

Jose : Whats your taken on Rowdy Tellez? Is he polarizing amount scouts? That stat line combined with ARL is enticing, but word is the bat speed will get exploited in the majors. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter scenario

Todd: What are your thoughts on Isan Diaz? After watching him in Appleton this year, I am convinced he is the Brewers #1 prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d have Brinson ahead of him but that might be it, especially given Corey Ray’s meniscus injury.

J: Can Torres stick at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen anything yet in AFL that would indicate he can’t.

Guest: Why should Dodger fans be excited about Cody Bellinger? I want to get hyped, but big power numbers in the minors have a tendency to be misleading.

Eric A Longenhagen: He has plus bat speed and really good feel for making airborne contact, he’s just going to swing and miss a lot. It’s fine to be excited but this isn’t the next Albert Pujols or anything like that.

turner bleacher creature: What’s your take on Anthony Banda? Apparently he was up to 95 this year, and the results were excellent. Mid-rotation upside as soon as 2017?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s #1 on the Dbacks prospect list. Was up to 96 in an inning stint at the Futures Game but mostly low-90s, above average curveball, average change. #4 starter profile, pretty close to the bigs, a solid average arm.

Pat: Have you evaluated Nick Solak? Obviously fairly old for levels but seemed to be a good hitter. Could he be a DJ Lemahieu caliber bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Doesn’t have that kind of power. Potential 6 hit, but he was taken as an underslot guy to make room for Rutherford’s bonus, not as talented as where his draft position indicates.

Jack C.: With all of the prospects you know and follow, have you ever entertained the idea of being an advisor/agent? Why or why not?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t have the temperament for that job.

Jeb: Which prospect did you and colleague Keith Law disagree on the most when you worked together? What drove the difference in opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bo Bichette. We disagreed about whether or not he’d hit. Strongly.

Loose Seal: Do you think the Red Sox would ever move their HiA team to Ft. Myers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not unless the Twins moved it out of there. I like Fort Myers but can’t see it supporting two minor league teams.

Matt: Hey Eric, for all the love given to the Braves young pitchers, can you make a case that their four best prospects are all hitters? (Thinking Dansby, Albies, Maitan, and Acuna make up that list.)

Eric A Longenhagen: Actually, yeah. I don’t totally agree with you because of how talented Fried, Allard and Newcomb are, but preferring the hitters isn’t total lunacy or anything.

GPT: Giants have had a pretty poor international pipeline the last couple of decades (Sandoval aside), why haven’t they overhauled that department, which has pretty much been the same over that period?

Eric A Longenhagen: Keep in mind that they’ve traded away international guys like Fox, Mela and Mejia for big league pieces which makes it look like the Int’l department hasn’t done anything when they actually have. Also, it looks like they hit on Sandro Fabian.

fresh basil: Kyle Tucker or Eloy Jiminez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eloy.

kevinwc: Have you had a chance to get a good look at Ranger’s third rounder Kole Enright?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, was bad right after he signed but improved as the summer went along. He’s proabably a bat-first, multi-positional utility prospect for me right now rather than a future regular but I do like him.

Ron T: Who has the most repeatable, most reliable swing from this past June’s Rule 4?

Eric A Longenhagen: Moniak

Loose Seal: Lindor or Baez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lindor

Jeb: Regarding your comment about teams lacking infrastructure and 1st rounders failing…does enough infrastructure exist in totality? Or is there a scarcity in coaches/physicians/fields/etc. so that this is likely to perpetuate?

Eric A Longenhagen: Aha, good question. I think you’re right, it’s not always easy for teams to find the people they need to have a perfect player development infrastructure in place. Ownership frugality is another barrier.

Tim: Mind giving us a Tebow update from AFL? Either what you’ve seen or heard?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been writing daily notes on Fall Leaguers here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/fall-league-daily-notes-october-14/

Eric A Longenhagen: Tebow’s report is in one of those. He’s not a prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: I will say that I hope he has one singular moment of triumph here, though. If for no other reason than because the people coming to the games want to see it. I get criticism over the move and it is kind of a circus but, with much of the world crumbling around us, it is just baseball and people are just looking to escape.

John: Is Amed Rosario a top 10 prospect in baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so.

Sonny: Which C’s big AAA numbers are most representative of their true MLB potential; Zunino, Hedges, Murphy

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think Hedges will hit in the big leagues like he did in Triple-A so I’ll say Zunino. But I prefer Hedges as a prospect because of the glove.

Urban: Related to your Trenton comment. Is there any evidence extreme parks help or hinder development of position players and pitchers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams have consciously had pitching prospects skip the Cal League completely in the past, which is at least evidence that teams THINK weird playing environments can be detrimental. Mostly though, those odd environments can create unrealistic expectations from fans who, say, see Darin Ruf hit 38 homers and think he’s the next big thing.

G: Were the Pirates to trade McCutchen this offseason, would Meadows be ready to contribute at the start of 2017?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’d probably experience some growing pains in MLB like most other prospects. I think Cutch will have a better ’17 at the plate than Meadows would, but they need to move him out of CF.

EC: Best prospect you’ve ever seen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Trout, Harper, Cole, Strasburg

Erik: How does someone like Andrew Toles completely fall through the cracks, only to be rediscovered and promoted so quickly?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still trying to figure that out. With Toles it may have been non-baseball stuff.

Erik: You’ve mentioned before that Domonic Brown is your personal biggest miss. What was it about him that made him appear to be a top-tier prospect when he was in fact a below replacement level player? And what top prospects are you most afraid might become the next Domonic Brown?

Eric A Longenhagen: With Brown I mistook explosiveness for athleticism. Hit ball far and run fast is not “athleticism”. Athleticism is body control and the ability to make adjustments because you have that body control. Brown looked like a baby giraffe in the outfield into his 20s which should have been a red flag that he wasn’t really all that athletic. I’m also convinced his hand injury had permanent effects on his power.

Eric A Longenhagen: And the answer to your second question is Giolito. I have no reason for that fear, just know that I feel it.

Andy: I feel like the White Sox have some intriguing prospects in AZL. Any reason to think someone like Corey Zangari can make it to the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Zangari has the power and will flash the feel to hit, they may have promoted him aggressively, though. I saw Micker Adolfo hit the ball hard on Saturday morning, so that was nice.

leprekhan: How did Yunior Severino look when you saw him down at instructs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really raw

Barry: Patrick Weigel took a big step forward this year and seems to be the underrated product of that absurd Rome Braves rotation. Do you see him having TOR upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, but he’ll touch 99+. Doesn’t have TOR control/command for me.

Loose Seal: Are you going to dump us for an MLB team like Kiley? 🙁

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll never leave you, bu.

Roger: Seems like since being drafted Aramis Garcia has transitioned from being a bat first C with questionable defensive abilities to a glove-first C with questionable bat. How did that happen?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea but you’re right, he hasn’t looked good with the glove in AFL.

Hurtado: So with AZ even hiring a yong-ish white ivy league fella, do you think scouting departments will start getting filled up with them as well or is that already the case? Is there any chance that other non-traditional candidates can get in on the baseball ops side at this point? It even seems that Fangraphs and BP writers have stopped getting poached by teams.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we may see fewer scouts who are ex-players as we move forward but, while available data at the Major League level is a constantly growing and evolving thing, amateur baseball and baseball around the world is still scouted with eyeballs-only. So it may be a while before we wholesale changes to the duties of John or Jane Q. Scout, which I think is fine.

Eric A Longenhagen: I know of some front offices that are made up of entirely white dudes that have consciously looked around the table and said, “hey, we need to hire some different people.” and I think I’m starting to see more divserity here in AZ. Oakland, LA and Chicago all have women working in Player Dev or on the physical fitness side of things down here.

FJ: What is your evaluation of Andrew Knapp? Can he be a starting catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just short of that for me, especially with Alfaro in the system.

PSM2f: What was your initial take on Kevin Maitan from ATL Instructs? Any guess as to where the Braves will start him next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw his debut and he was clearly rusty but also clearly gifted. I was told he put a ball into the parking lot later that week. No idea where he starts, probably just the GCL.

JCM: Really want to know your thoughts on Ryan McMahon. Do you think he bounces back from an awful 2016? Have you seen him this fall or talked with scouts who have?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have and he hasn’t made a lot of loud contact but there’s clearly power in there. I know a scout who likes the idea of his club buying low on him this winter.

Dan: How long do you give Gallo before you figure he just won’t ever develop good enough bat to ball skills?

Eric A Longenhagen: As long as he has 80 raw he’ll keep getting chances. Nellie Cruz didn’t figure it out until he was 28.

GW: What is Francisco Mejia’s offensive ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: .300 with 15 homers if he tones down the violence

Bob: Why was Bubba Starling promoted to AAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: Plays a fine CF, has made adjustments in attempt to hit which satisfies coaches but they haven’t led to an uptick in performance which, to me, means it makes sense to move him to a different level to receive some different instruction and see what happens.

Nick S: Did you know temperament had an “a” in it before this presidential election?

Eric A Longenhagen: Of all the shattered truths I once knew before this election, that one is perhaps the most important.

Warren: What was it like working with Keith Law?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know whether to make a joke about this or be serious, so I’ll just say that we each ate an entire pizza of our own at a bar while watching an MMA fight involving two out-of-shape dudes this weekend.

DTH: I’ve seen guys down on Happ’s defense and saying the bat isn’t good enough to carry him; you see him as a bench guy, an average everyday 2B, better?

Eric A Longenhagen: Everyday player at @B and if he can’t play there I still think there’s enough bat for the OF

Carmen Fanzone: Team needs aside, where do you see Yoan Moncada’s best defensive position fit?

Eric A Longenhagen: CF, though I think he’s going to be fine at 3B.

kevinwc: What are you expecting with Leody Taveras; and more specifically when it comes to his power potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: Average game power which, from a 6 future hitter who plays a good CF, is really great.

Randy: Can Garrett Stubbs be at least an average starting catcher in the majors? Seems to have everything except size (and perhaps power).

FireDrayton: Further to Astros catchers — any thoughts on Stubbs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Defense has looked bad in AFL but he’s a unique player with rare speed for a catcher and I’d be interested in seeing him play all over the place. I think positional flexibility is a huge plus.

KINGINDANORF: Is there anything you’ve seem from Greg Bird in AFL that indicates shoulder is still an issue?

Eric A Longenhagen: The bat looks fine so far, nothing too different, but he’s been DH’ing here in my looks so not really a chance to see him throwing or moving around in the field.

Jeremy: (roughly) how does the weighting work on a typical top 100 list- is the gap between 10-20 the same as the gap between 50-60, or is it usually more top heavy with less separation at the back end?

Eric A Longenhagen: Usually the top of the list has a few elite prospects (maybe 3-5) and then two dozen or so prospects in the next tier down before it levels off in the 25-75 range where most of those guys are potential above average regulars. From 75 and onward it’s a lot of future average players or big upside guys in lower levels.

Eric A Longenhagen: So I might have a guy at 30 on my list who has the same FV grade as the guy at 60, which creates the illusion that they’re different guys when all that’s separating them is my personal preference.

Jim: Have you seen Will Smith (C)? How does he compare to Zach Collins, Thaiss, Rogers, Okey etc. from this deep 2016 College Catcher draft class….and who do you think will be biggest impact at C at the MLB level?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have not seen him because he’s back at Louisville taking classes. He’s twitchier and more athletic than everyone on that list, save for maybe Rogers. Thaiss is already a 1B-only guy. Collins probably will be soon. Okay has had some hiccups defensively but I think he stays there long term and has more power than Smith while Smith is the better defender. Rogers is a glove-only guy, but it might be an elite glove. Smith has the best all-around skillset of the bunch in my opinion.

kevinwc: Thoughts on Anderson Tejeda? Swing looks nice and the power he’s showing is promising. How does the defense look?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not a lock at SS but might have the power to project as an everyday 2B anyway.

Roger: Any Anderson Espinoza news or sightings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did not see him during instructs but heard all is well, he looks very good.

bosoxforlife: Has Byron Buxton already past the Domonic Brown level when it comes to a bust?

Eric A Longenhagen: No way, I’m still in on Buxton.

Andrew: Can you give us some thoughts on the Mets’ system?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve done a killer job on the international market and have lots of interesting lower levels prospects and continue to crank out pitchers that exceed expectations to say nothing of the two lineup mainstays they have up top in Smith and Rosario.

Shane: Ceiling on Junior Fernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: High leverage reliever

J: At what age do you start to give up a on a prospect or at least see their chances at becoming a decent regular are nearly done?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s a player to player thing because each guy has a different background. I’m more inclined to give up on a 19 year old from Florida who has no physical projection left and very little feel to hit than I am a 22 year old two sport prospect from the midwest who is still growing into his body.

Matt: Player pages still seem to have prospect scouting reports from 2 years ago on them. Any chance we can get those replaced with the current ratings once you get through the lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know it’s something Cameron is interested in updating

Paul: Kaprelian or Honeywell?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kap

Nietsniew: What are some Vanderbilt players to keep an eye on for this draft or future drafts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kendall, Day, Jones, Wright

Randy: With respect to Stubbs defense–all scouting reports I’ve seen have given him high marks in that regard. Small AFL sample size?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, he was great at USC.

Eric A Longenhagen: could just be tired.

Sonny: Who has been the biggest surprise for you? Lightly regarded but turned a corner in MLB

Eric A Longenhagen: Dozier?

Spicy Boy: What’s a reasonable outcome for Stephen Gonsalves? Is his ceiling much higher than that? He seems to have outperformed scouting reports thus far

Eric A Longenhagen: 5th starter

Dooduh: How much of a problem do you think Dom Smith’s weight is going to cause? Seems as if he is rolling toward Pablo Sandoval territory.

Eric A Longenhagen: If he hits, who cares? Not like we’re talking about a guy who needs to stay in CF to profile.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone that’s going to do it for today….

Eric A Longenhagen: Let me link you to some important stuff before you go..

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, here’s today’s post previewing the Org lists: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-prospects-the-pros-and-cons-of-a-single-number/

Eric A Longenhagen: Be sure to check InstaGraphs daily for my Fall League observations from the day before. See you here next week.