Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/6/2026
Hello hello. I just walked in the door from my First Pitch Arizona panel, sitting down to chat momentarily. Thank you for your patience.
For those unaware, here is the website for first pitch arizona. https://www.baseballhq.com/articles/Events/first-pitch-arizo…
My update to Asian Pro players is now live on the board. The accompanying piece is with editing and I will link to it when it's published.
Okay, let's get to your questions.
What's the furthest you've ever bumped up a prospect after reevaluating? And what's the furthest someone has dropped?
The college arms who pop in a big way, like Will Warren and Cam Schlittler, essentially go from nothing to top 100 guys pretty fast.
Then you have the big money teenagers who you learn pretty quickly are bad, like Roderick Arias.
Now that a full season and fall/winter leagues have occurred, have you noticed anything different with the Rockies at all? Could be anything- hitting/pitching approaches, technology, just more scouts/staff?
I thought my answer was going to be "everyone is swinging less" but when I checked the team leaderboards…. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats…
I think the braintrust has been around more. Depo, Byrnes, Tanous… you see them around. Idk if there's anything else tangible that I've noticed but I'm sure there are things I'm just spacing on.
Did you see any of Tekoah Roby in the AFL? What's his outlook in '27?
Roby is one of the guys who I have yet to see. Will get him this weekend, though.
The chatter has been positive. Would anticipate he's a '27 graduate.
Do you think Sammy Stafura is a major league SS?
I do, but I'm not convinced he's an average everyday player, though I know scouts who are, including the one who drove the bus on acquiring him in that deal. He can play defense, he's strong. I think he's gonna K a lot.
Noticed you and BG seem to view Dax Kilby's ability to stay at SS differently. When that happens for scouts is it typically different evaluation on their skills or a different emphasis on which skills are most important for given position (say arm for a SS).
I think it's "bias on look", if I see Kilby airmail a couple of throws in the 6 games I see, I'm gonna worry he can't play there. If Brendan doesn't see that, he probably won't. Teruaki Sato, video when watched in reverse chronological order, shows him airmailing several throws within the first 20 attempts, so we're on the same page there. Some of it is I am meaner/more miserly than Brendan, who wants to give the players the benefit of the doubt and time to develop.
I think defense is more of an inherent thing.
Eric, thanks for both your #1. Passion #2. Dedication, to providing honest feedback in regards to these many prospects. It’s understandable there will be both hit and misses, but you sure seem to get a lot more accurate than some of the other forecasters. Nice job.
Hey thanks, it feels good to have done this long enough to be comfortable being wrong, and to not get defensive when I am. The couple of studies that have been done (Lindbergh sends me one every now and then) tend to agree with you.
At least, I think I use the entire scouting scale in a way that is most useful.
General thoughts on the 2027 draft class? Last I read, the Guardians have 6 picks in the first ~100. Please remember that I will cling to your response as a beacon of hope as the lockout kicks in and the temperatures drop.
I like the top 10 and think that group is deeper than usual. Didn't love the HS guys during the summer and think the overall depth is below average. Heavy on college arms, that group tends to have some injury attrition during the spring.
Do you have a general outline & timeline of what we can look forward to this offseason with BG on board for a full offseason? Status quo/same stuff be done sooner/new content
We have some technical tweaks to go over with Meg and Sean regarding possible data viz and changes to the system overview section, Once that stuff is cleared will be rolling at a little better pace than before. Brendan already has a couple of his lists mostly done.
I have all this data and wanna have an accordion feature like we do on the top 100, but instead of the distribution graphs, I want it to be data viz spider graphs or even just a year-to-year breakdown of a few key metrics for these guys.
Some of that might be easy for Sean to do, and some might be harder.
Is every prospect who vaguely resembles Miz (*cough* Susana *cough*) now overrated, at least by fans?
Mmmm kinda? Guys who throw hard and that's it do not equal Miz. Susana doesn't have nearly the same kind of fluidity, he's more like Duran to me.
It's tough because, who resembles Miz?
On some level, being a unicorn has its own value, but sometimes that's Miz, and sometimes that's Altuve.
Once the prospects get called up and get an opportunity, but don’t run with it right away, and struggle, what do you view as a potential alarm? Chase, swing and miss. Hard hit, ground balls- launch angle, low walk rate, etc. What skill say in following year after Cup of Coffee can get better just with getting older and adding experience for position players.
I try not to get too over my skis in either direction. Trout, Judge, Utley… there are several HoF caliber players who initial taste was sour. I do know there are people in the game who think if you don't perform or show improvement during your first six or eight weeks, that they think you're cooked. I think there are too many examples of players improving (period, sometimes that means going from good to great, sometimes from fringe-y to decent) to say that's true.
what's preventing franklin primera from being turbo elite? obviously the models must love a 19 yo catcher with a .367/.499/.581 and 48:36 bb:k, who kept it up in A ball. Is this a deeper question about stats v scouting? Like why is this not surefire t50 with a great chance to be t10 by midseason?
physically mature kid with basically no projection.
How does one value a prospect who will definitely make the big leagues and also definitely have a ceiling as a UT/RP? Big leaguers have value, but…?
Are you talking about in fantasy? You probably shouldn't value that guy. Here we use grades, where a 45 is like a premium utility man, lefty platoon bat, or set-up man, 40 is more like a true reserve who's on the roster because you need a second shortstop or a guy who takes at-bats against righties, a more limited role, middle reliever. We value them but more for the role rather than war production, since war production is a counting stat that true everyday players are compared to one another via
Is the International Players tab of The Board getting an update soon?
I updated it at 5am
The Cardinals need to fill holes at CF and 3B by the start of 2028. Will players already in their system be the answers at one or both spots, or do you think they will need to go outside the organization to meaningfully improve at either spot?
I would guess they keep things in-house at 3B and see what a combo of Gorman/Fermin/Saggese, etc can do. They have depth there. In CF they don't. Vic Scott is playing in winter ball, haven't seen enough of him to know if he' looks better. CF FA market is tough, they could always trade a catcher for a 3B/CF but idk which org has a CF surplus off the top of my head. Buxton for a catcher with Jeffers out the door in MIN?
Do you ever talk to cistuli
Yes, but his cell phone plan is weird now that he lives in Canada.
He's good, he says. "Uh… sure, you can say hello for me."
How's Ike Irish looked this fall? In my brief looks it was a lot of groundballs but also fly balls smoked to left center
Ditto. Good corner platoon bat, nice piece. Needs a Manny Margot type caddy as a RH/defense first pairing.
How do you view 1B shaking out for the Brewers assuming Bauers is gone? Could one or both of Luke Adams and Blake Burke be a ready made solution?
I think those are both interesting in-house options along with Vaughn . Some 1B reps for Contreras also makes sense.
The Brewers seem to be very good at helping their prospects become the best versions of themselves, rather than drafting and developing for lift-and-pull hitters or max velo pitchers. How much do orgs vary in terms of how much they seek to draft and develop the most valuable traits (pull-side power; velo) vs. how much they just try to draft players who are good at some things and can get better at other things?
Huge differences. There are teams who draft pitchability guys and then develop velo (Cleveland, New York) and there are orgs who draft good hitters and try to make them strong (Milwaukee, Tampa) and there are teams who are willing to consider moving guys up the defensive spectrum (Sacramento, Detroit) because they had good prior reports on players at those positions.
out of the braves system, who's got a better chance of hitting their way up in the next 2 seasons: Hartman or Southisene? Hartman seems like the higher ceiling because of the power-speed combo, but Southisene is probably a major league hitter and up-the-middle defender, even if it's 2B and a 90 wRC+
I like Southisense's feel to hit more. DOn't think he's an INF tho
Can you give us a preview of what you're thinking of writing about during the apparently-inevitable lockout? Any ideas for new projects you're thinking of pursuing?
Well the minor league stuff will be happening more or less like normal, so there's that. I wanna write about autograph culture and meiji university and do more self-evaluation type stuff that is slightly different than the How's My Driving pieces.
Jake Bloss' velo had been down in the AFL but has started to tick back up. How dependant will his success be on getting back to the late summer velo he teased before the teres major injury?
I'm less concerned about his velo and more about his command. His fastball rides enough that if it's "only" sitting 94-96 but located well, it'll play.
Any fresh dope on Samil Serrano or Angel De Los Santos? I'm trying to temper expectations but both look very projectable to me.
Lotta Samil Serrano questions in chat today. De Los Santos is really athletic and projectable, also very chase prone and is gonna K a lot. Really exciting player with some bust risk because of the Ks. Serrano had a great DSL season, data looks awesome. Definitely has some misreads in here, he has a 123 max exit that simply isn't real. COvers the inner half really well, think he's a nice hit-tool oriented prospect whose swing has lovely natural loft. Not overly physical, could break out if he can add muscle without getting stiff. Already squaring it up consistently. Probably the equivalent of a first round HS prospect.
Does Bodine block Flewelling as catcher of the future for the Rays? Or is Flewelling too raw to even be in that conversation?
The latter, for now. There's a chance Bodine entrenches himself so much that the Rays just decide to make Flewelling into Soderstrom.
Have you ever been tempted to buy baseball cards of prospects you think that market is undervaluing? Or does it seem like a money pit even for knowledgeable insiders?
Nah. I have been tempted to try to move the market on a lie for Machiavellian funsies. The only cards i collect are to fill out my MLB Showdown collection and dual sport athletes. I have some cool Brian Jordan/Deion Sanders stuff and whatnot.
Higher ceiling: Yostin Pena or Alexander Frias?
Frias but they're both freaky
Of arms yet to debut, does S Hernandez, R Sloan, J Susana, L Doyle and Zazueta seem like an agreeable top 5? Maybe J Flora is next in line to join that group?
Healthy Thomas White at least belongs next to Doyle. I'd take Gage Wood, Anthony Eyanson, and Flora over Zazueta, who doesn't have a good breaking ball.
The new International board is awesome, and it reminds me of Roki Sasaki and what an interesting odyssey his career has been so far. What FV would you give Sasaki right now?
45+
Are you seeing Kyle DeBarge making adjustments that might help him make enough contact to have a chance at an everyday role, or does this feel more like taking advantage of less refined pitching?
The latter, but he's a big leaguer. Good utility guy, A bit less physical than Ezequiel Duran but could play that kind of role.
Any chance Roldy Brito pulls an AJ Ewing in '27?
You mean striking out 25% of the time and slugging under .400 while everyone glazes him?
Give it another year, I can see why you're making the comp. I think Brito does a little more at 2B and a little less in CF (Ewing is good btw, I'm just joshing)
Re: the college arms and others who pop, what about them makes them pop to evaluators? Is there something subsurface that doesn't appear until they hit the minors? Or is it minor league dev changing something to unlock a hidden talent? Seems like some orgs routinely add a few mph to guys' fastballs pretty quickly.
Yes. This is where some of the strength and flexibility testing comes into play. There are physical traits that you can measure when you get your hands on the player at your facility that help you understand the players capacity for strength, or learn what their deficiencies are so you know what to work on after you draft them. Like Schlittler the Yankees might have known he's so underdeveloped, but has huge capacity, so let's take this human construction crane and see what happens….
Sometimes it has nothing to do with sports science and is just intel from your people who know the college pitching coach sucks, or whatever. But the space in which people are evaluating has less to do with the tool grades (which are more measurable now than ever) and more with the aptitude/athleticism/secondary traits that might indicate the baseball skills can improve.
Admittedly more of a post-prospects question, but curious about your thoughts on Jack Perkins and if you think about him sticking as a starter (or at least away from the bandbox he’s called home). Been looking into him for a good bit (particularly as a four-seam/sinker tunneling candidate like the Rays implemented a lot this past season), but curious if your thoughts have changed any on him.
I can see why they want him to start because of his build and delivery, but to me his command has always been so bad that I thought it was a long shot.
Any update on Jan 15th International Signing Day? I think Braves fans will fall apart if Alfredo Sena isn't part of the organization on 1/15/2027.
From what I've heard it will still happen but it might not happen in Januar. I think MLB would love to push it another six months. It will mean that since the pandemic they've pushed it a year.
Based on whats going on in the AFL, how does Patrick Reilly compare to the other intriguing Os upper minors arms (Dzierwa, Hunter, Gongora, Forrett, etc)
Nastier breaking stuff, worse command. Five-and-dive starter.
Susana-starter or reliever? If reliever, closer?
RP, closer.
If defense is more of an inherent thing, who would the Dodgers prefer play an inning in LF in a game today, Josue De Paula or Eric Longenhagen?
Today? JDP. In 2010? Bro, I'm playing CF.
Is Hyun Min Ahn 안현민 on your radar at all? Was a name I was expecting to see on the Board based on stats alone, but I don't have much more context there.
He's in the piece that should be published today. Actually looking at Slack, Martell has notes for me I need to fix some stuff.
Gimme like 1 minute
Back
Did you get an opportunity to watch either of the Red Sox' top two draft picks play this season (Schaffner and Hull) and do you have any general thoughts on either of them?
Yes, I like Schaffner (Small school cold weather background, natural feel to hit, non-zero shot to stay at shortstop) and I'm not so hot for Hull whose swing I think is too long for him to hit. I'll be looking for an overhaul this spring.
Looking at Asian player updates, I don't see Shoki Oda. Do you think there is realistically no chance he comes straight to the US?
It's just an asian pro player update. Oda is an amateur. He's likely coming, I would expect he signs in 2027, whenever the signing period actually begins. I wrote more about him in the piece that has yet to publish. He'd be a first round pick if he were a HS pitcher here.
Spangler or Miller, who's a better MLB hitter?
Miller
Roby left the AFL didn't he? At least The Cardinal Nation reported that maybe a week plus ago. They just wanted him to get some game innings in and a limited amount with a plan of him heading home early
I thought he was on the fall stars roster and assumed i had just been missing him over and over
Another Miz-inspired question: what's the advantage of a short stride, if any? Not that Miz-level extension would work for every pitcher, obviously. But watching Miz got me wondering if the short striders of the world are just leaving a lot of meat on the bone in terms of velo, and/or putting extra stress on their arms to achieve high velo. Or am I wrong and short striders as a group tend to gain compensating benefits (maybe command?)
A shorter stride might change the angle of the pitch or allow it more distance to break in a way that's beneficial.
Boston shortened Crochet's stride.
Ok ya'll. Lemme make sure I'm interfacing with Matt as soon as he needs me to. I'm gonna split. Please consume my international pro update this weekend, it's a doozy. Talk to you next week
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
