Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/8/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from sunny Tempe, Arizona where last weekend I went people watching up by the college to see some Halloween craziness, and instead the lady sitting next to me at the bar had a seizure or a stroke or something and I got to play paramedic in front of like 24 people. Sometimes things don’t go the way you plan.

AN1: How are you feeling on Creed Willems? He has smoked some balls out west. Doesn’t K a ton either and is 21 for the first half of 2025. Anything there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll take the under. He has power but chases a ton for a 1B and I’m not sure how long he’s going to be athletically viable. Some model-driven team would probably take him in a deal, though.

Dk: Would you trade Tong, Williams and Gilbert for Crochet? Would it be enough?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be trying to do better than that (I’d rather have Sproat than either Tong or Gilbert by kind of a lot, and I’d need to pry away at least one of Baty or Ronny Mo) but I appreciate you including Jett, who I think is gonna be good.

Scott M.: What do you make of Josue Briceno and Thayron Liranzo’s AFL performances so far? And what’s the likelihood either will stick at catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both good, Liranzo way better shot to stick back there because he definitely has the arm and build.

Ralph: If most of NYY resources go to Soto, do you think Ben Rice and/or Caleb Durbin can handle significant PA for them next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Durbin as a scrappy utility piece and think Rice is a fringe 40-man type, so that would not be ideal.

Matt: What position does Christian Moore end up at? Heard some rumblings that he was playing some 3B and outfield in instructs? Not sure if those were true.

Eric A Longenhagen: All my Instructs looks were with him at 2B

Tacoby Bellsbury: What do you find most fun in baseball, and how has that changed across your career?

Eric A Longenhagen: Discovering new players. I was watching Angels DSL stuff against the Giants last week and some of SF’s guys were really exciting. To get totally blindsided like that really lights me up.

Kave Dingman: Happy Friday, Eric – my fantasy team has on its farm:  Deyvison de los Santos, Cam Collier, James Triantos, Owen Caissie, Thomas Sagghese, Gino Groover, Luisangel Acuna, and Yanquiel Fernandez. For an NL only league, how’d I do – when is my window opening for that talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think your team’s games are all gonna be over in like 2:15 with that collection of chasers you got there. I have no idea how you did without looking at everyone else’s roster but at first glance it’s just an okay group.

Alek: Even with the decent AFL stats i assume you’re still out on Robert Hassell as a regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: Correct. Think his hands work well enough for him to be a part time, lower impact guy. He just hasn’t gotten much stronger.

Jim: Do you think the Braves need to make changes to their international scouting department? They aren’t hitting on their recent latin players and it’s really effecting their system depth.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s more about their approach than anything else. When you put all your eggs in one or two Diego Benitez or Jose Perdomo type baskets and then that player immediately struggles, you basically punted an entire class.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s time for them to spread it out again. But they’ve got $3 and $4 mil commits at least two of the next couple years

171: Is Cam Weston a thing? He had a pretty good year but the velo seems less than desirable

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a low slot Orioles lefty who carved Double-A this year…

Eric A Longenhagen: Cameron Weston – Stats – Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a thing in a real-world baseball sense. He’s a deceptive low slot guy who commands a good slider. Is he a mid-rotation starter on a playoff team? No, but I think he could be a good swingman/long reliever and debut in 2025.

Eric: When do the team lists start do you plan to change the order of how you release them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Next week. Foreign pros, Angels, A’s to start. Cubs/Giants/Rockies/D’Backs (not necessarily in that order) after that.

Eric A Longenhagen: Then I’ll probably shift to teams based in Florida

Leo Needs a New Pair of Shoes: Any dope on high school draftees who’ve yet to make their official pro debut but whose work on the complex adjusts your pre-draft evaluation up or down?

Eric A Longenhagen: The guys who get like mid six figures who I didn’t know a ton about prior to the draft (my running list of those guys: Bo Walker ARI, Eli Lovich CHC, Andrew Tess BAL, Edgar Colon CIN, Jude Warwick DET, Andy Polanco SFG, Troy Guthrie TOR) can definitely move the needle but in general I think two years of how they looked trumps 2 weeks of how they do, good or bad.

Jimmy: Favorite riser from 2024?

Eric A Longenhagen: Across all baseball? Lawrence Butler

Eric A Longenhagen: Go get that guy

Chris: Favorite bat prospects that no one has heard about (outside top 100ish), that you think could explode next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jonny Farmelo

Jonathan: I love the depth and breadth of your scouting reports and don’t think there’s anything comparable that’s public-facing. <3  The publication speed is frustratingly slow but it seems like a necessary by-product of the reports’ high quality + the fact that you don’t have a team of scouts working with you.  My questions:  if you suddenly had the same access to tons of video (and maybe biomechanics markers/metrics to help sort/parse the video) that a team’s video scout had, (1) to what extent would it help with speed, and (2) to what extent do you think your reports might suffer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Thank you. I think my nature is such that more info would slow me down as it would give me yet another thing to consider and try to communicate in the reports.

Some kinda Mook: No question, just want to say that I’m very excited for your prospecting this offseason. Please distract us.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have mixed/guilty feelings about whether I’m actually doing the right thing by immersing myself in sports as a way of dealing with the chaos rather than applying myself to something substantive, like helping fix education in Arizona. But damn do I love watching Lamar Jackson and yes I will spend three hours saying “wow” out loud to the cats on a Thursday night.

Dougie Jones: Given that his pro struggles seem to jibe with the specifics of your pre-draft hit tool concerns, should we be quicker to round down on Charlie Condon than the size of the sample would otherwise suggest?

Eric A Longenhagen: I probably will.

PB: How much do teams actually value the fall league? Feels like there’s a lot of variance and noise associated with the results.

Eric A Longenhagen: With the stats there is, but the look can move the needle. Handful of potential Rule 5 guys solidify a spot or not here, you’re looking at the Eriq Swans of the world and considering the way he’s been changed by an org that’s good at this, etc. Lots to see, basically none of it anyone’s ISO.

Benjamin: Zyhir Hope or Walker Jenkins?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jenkins, not close.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hope has real hit tool risk. He’s got power and speed but is gonna K a ton.

Carl: Jesus Made has a lot of hype. I try to temper my excitement as it’s just the DSL. But I really should be excited, right? Him and Cooper Pratt makes for a promising future for the Brewers shortstop position.

Eric A Longenhagen: Made looks great on a spreadsheet but I wanna see him before I go nuts

Big Fan: Do you think Drake Baldwin is the #2 catcher in Atlanta next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Starting to, and I think he’d handle it fine. Long offseason, though.

Benjamin: Ballesteros or Liranzo have a better shot to stick at C?

Eric A Longenhagen: Liranzo. Both throw well and are bad at other things, Ballesteros is built like mini John Goodman and might not be able to move well enough back there.

Leric A Ongenhagen: Leonardo Bernal had a great ’24, is performing well in the AFL, and is at AA as a 20 year old catcher. Will he make the top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say beter than 50/50 he does. Lefty-hitting catcher with plus bat speed. Another guy where his build is such that IDK what it’ll looks like when he’s 26-28, ya know?

Guest: Has anyone popped in your Angels looks this fall?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Bryan Martinez, also kind of on Anyelo Marquez, Hayden Alvarez and Ubaldo Soto.

Eminor3rd: Have you had a chance to get looks/opinions on Shunpeita Yamashita (Orix) or Takahisa Hayakawa (Rakuten) in NPB? The looked like a potential generational guy before taking a step backward last year, and the latter finally broke out a year or two after being pretty hyped.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yamashita is the real deal for me. Struggled and was demoted early, came back with a vengeance late. Three plus pitches and a QB build at age 22? Yes please.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s pitching “prospect” no. 2 in NPB behind Sasaki

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Hayakawa but there are a lot of guys like him over there, smaller-framed with sneaky 89-91mph heaters, breaking stuff that lives off axis/slot, and a good changeup. More generic backend type. Inoue is my favorite guy over there who fits this description, think he’s a special athlete.

emh1969: How do repeated injuries factor into a player’s ranking? I’m thinking of Chase DeLauter here.

Eric A Longenhagen: I hear ya, especially when it’s the same thing over and over again like it has been with DeLauter’s feet and ankles I think it has to.

Prospecter: Do you think Lazaro Montes‘ season was a net positive or negative?  Results are there but the whiff concerns are real

Eric A Longenhagen: Positive but I’ll still probably be the low guy on him this offseason. I agree there are issues masked by SEA’s hitting environments in A/A+ ball. Same has been true of a lot of guys before him like Clase and Locklear. Crushing in NWL, back to earth after promotion

chance: Is Andrew Painter showing enough to reclaim his elite prospect status?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, release was less consistent during his last outing tho

Philip: If Sugano signs with a MLB team, how are you rating him in a FYPD?  Do you think he could have a couple of top-40 SP years in him?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a 45 on him. 70 command of 40 stuff

Say More: Got one name that especially stood out among Giants DSL surprises?

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: okay fine, it’s Anthony Marquez

Yovani Gallardo: Hi Eric, thanks again for doing this chat! I wanted to ask if you have thoughts on this year’s IFA class (KBO, NPB etc), specifically on the NPB side. Also wondering if you have guys you’re keeping an eye on in NPB that’s not necessarily coming over this offseason (like learning about Shunpeita Yamashita was lots of fun at least for me!).

Eric A Longenhagen: More on this next week but yeah. I think Kazuna Okamoto is  hot name to know for this offseason. Crazy pull/lift spray chart, a la Isaac Paredes. I’m skeptical he can actually hit but teams who care about airborne pull are gonna be on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okamoto and the NPB Cubans (Livan Moinelo, Raidel Martinez) play in Premier12 this weekend and should be watched…

Eric A Longenhagen: Taisei Ota is another name to know, monster relief stuff

Vader: Any intel on Jonathon Long of the Cubs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Big bat speed, 1B only athlete for me, don’t love how upright his front side is throughout his swing. There are scouts who really like him, I’ve been apprehensive.

McGraw45: I feel like I remember early reports that Salas and DeVries looked good in the fall league. Did that hold?

Eric A Longenhagen: Salas looks exhausted now, De Vries still hitting

Adam: How have Xaiver Isaac and Tre’ Morgan looked in the outfield?

Eric A Longenhagen: Raw

Eric A Longenhagen: Morgan has had trouble keeping his footing in my looks. Isaac is more comfortable running but his routes need work

Johnny5Alive: Re: crochet. He’s only done this once and it’s on his last year of control, how could he possibly demand that much. Converted relieveer with no teach record and an injury history and he needs 3 top prospects for a deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like you’d just be out on Crochet

Nathan: What’s your take on Denzel Clarke?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he could have a peak in his late-20s, crazy speed and should be a good CF over time, might eventually find a way to make enough contact to be an everyday guy during that peak

Jack: Colt Emerson hits the ball really hard but doesn’t seem to hit it over the fence. Is he a legit future top-5 prospect in all of baseball and will he stick at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a little rich for me. I love how explosive his hands are but that bat path is a little too similar to Gavin Lux for me to be comfortable going all in to that degree.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not a SS for me

Huzzah!: Thanks is all. Love the chats.

Eric A Longenhagen: Gracias, gonna take a few more real fast for 10 min or so

Jace, the Mind Sculptor: Thoughts on the extended rotation window for Standard? Or do you play a different format?

Eric A Longenhagen: I tend to draft. The sets come out too fast for me to feel like I’m keeping up with standard.

JK: Thoughts on Bryce Eldridge? AFL and full season, thanks for all you do!

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked tired here before he went home. I’ll have him toward the back of the top 100. Still a 1B with K risk, 70 power though.

Andre Thee Giant: When it comes to players likely to graduate to the MLB in 2025 and 2026, would you rather have the Rays or Red Sox system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Boston

victoria: Will Ballesteros’ bat play as a first division starter at 1b?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, first division is like a top 15 guy.

Darren: Thanks for the chat! Have you seen Carter Jensen in the AFL?  How does he look and what position do you think he will play?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, have seen him a bunch. Think he’ll catch despite some of his issues. Super big, aggressive move forward in the box generates a ton of power and K’s. I like him but think it’ll take a while for him to tone that down. More of a mid-20s breakout guy than someone racing there to help short term

Guest: Who is your favorite FA this year that is outside the top 25-or so?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Conforto and Carlos Santana as far as guys who didn’t make Ben’s top 25

Eric A Longenhagen: and then I chose Jonny Lasagna for my “who’d be on my 50 but wasn’t on Ben’s” Who Else Should Have Made Our Top 50 Free Agent Rankings? | FanGraphs Baseball

Fishfan: Are you buying into Jacob Berry’s second half? I know in early June you said he hadn’t really hit at all

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely swung and missed less but there still isn’t 1B power

Leric A Ongenhagen: book recs for the offseason? baseball and non-baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m currently reading this: The Light Eaters: How the Unseen World of Plant Intelligence Offers a New Understanding of Life on Earth: Schlanger, Zoë: 9780063073852: Amazon.com: Books

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a 50

Eric A Longenhagen: Naomi Klein’s Doppleganger is next for me

Eric A Longenhagen: If you like fiction, especially sci fi, I like Octavia Butler

Andre Thee Giant: I don’t understand Getz saying that the WS are focusing on position player return in any Crochet trade. When you need everything, why not just take the best deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s a good rule of thumb to get back an everyday position player when you trade a stud

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay ya’ll, I’ve gotta make some snacks for a house warming party tonight. You should watch Premier12 and Fall Stars this weekend. I’m excited for prospect lists to start rolling out and look forward to chatting with you on Semifinal Day next week. I swear I love you.