Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Chat chat chat!

dock ellis: what do you make of rhys hoskins? anything there to get excited about?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s certainly more effective than it is pretty — which is why you hear the Paul Goldschmidty nonsense connected to him, they share that — But still a 1B-only profile and he’s hitting in the same park that gave us Matt Rizotti, Darin Ruf, Tagg Bozied….

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not a “no” for me, but when you step back and look at the whole profile, it’s probably not better than a platoon guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll get a first-hand look in about a week and a half, though.

JD: How much will Willson contreras be playing for the cubs, the rest of the season? Catches 2 of every 5 or more?

Eric A Longenhagen: Glad you asked. My full report on Contreras just went up: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-willson-contreras-scouting-report/

Carlos: What’s your assessment of Jorge Alfaro? Does he still qualify as a guy with top notch tools, frustrating everything else?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and he’ll probably be that way forever, even in the big leagues.

Guest: Quit stealing Jeff’s chats

Eric A Longenhagen: Fine, I’ll be chatting weekly on Mondays from now on. Including the upcoming Monday.

Banny: Thoughts on the Royals draft? Found it pretty underwhelming even given their lack of money. Puckett getting well overslot was a bit confusing, drafting Lee as an OF rather than SP, Jace Vines, etc… Cubs had less money and a later pick and still got Hacth, Hockin, Clark, Miller. Logan Gray seems like a nice pick though.

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought it was fine. I like Puckett, overslot or not, and I like athletes and Lee is one. Not easy to have a good draft when you don’t pick until the 60s, especially when most late first round guys only usually project as 45s.

JD: How likely is it that the Cubs move Candelario and/or Vogelbach?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly. They’re definitely looking to buy this summer and those two don’t have anywhere to play on the big club.

Guesto: What’s Harrison Bader’s future outlook? 22 yr old tearing up AA with a sexy stat line, but what’s the truth about his ability?

Eric A Longenhagen: Solid tools across the board, nothing plus, corner-only defensive profile. He might be an average everyday player, more likely a half step below that.

Pat: Do you think Blake Rutherford will sign?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, but think it’s worth watching. He was almost certainly ticketed for a team drafting later but the Yankees pulled the trigger.

PowerRanger: When evaluating prospects with moderate power at ages 19-24, what are indicators that they may develop more pop? It seems there is a not unsubstantial amount of guys that hit 8-12 homers in the minors while they’re young, and then develop into 20-25 HR threats in the majors. Is there anyway to identify these guys from those who don’t have power potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: Look at the body and the swing. If the swing has natural loft but the body just isn’t physically mature enough to punish the baseball yet, it can come later if the body has projection.

Pat: How many people that got drafted in 2016 would you consider in your top 100 MLB prospects right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Prospects at the back of the top 100 are usually ones that have a chance at being an above average regular or a #3/4 starter. Most draft classes have about 12-15 of those guys.

Josh: Does Josh Hader profile as a front of the rotation type if he can improve his command? Do you think he can achieve this, or do you see him more as a bullpen arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he can start. Front of the rotation? That’s probably a little rich for me. Not impossible, just not something I’m willing to predict.

CarolinaBaseball: Have you had a chance to see Peter Lambert for Asheville? Dude’s numbers look fantastic, and he’s only 19 or something. MOR ceiling or better?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Lambert. Good body, delivery is fine, really advanced usage of a deep repertoire for someone his age. I saw him back door a changeup to a right-handed hitter in high school.

JR: Any word on Grant Bodison and Kep Brown? Two of the biggest names in SC coming into the season, but both went undrafted.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bodison is going to a JUCO. Brown I’ve never really been on, to be honest, even with that power projection, and I don’t know what happened there.

Roger: Is Jacoby Jones a 1st division SS for DET in 2017?

Eric A Longenhagen: No. Maybe a bench bat for me. Maybe.

Fired Mike Dee: What are your thoughts on the Padres draft strategy to spread their bonus pool across 5 picks in the first 3 rounds for guys like Mason Thompson and Reggie Lawson? Would you rather have spent earlier, but not had your pool stretch as far, in an effort to get the best guys early? Ex. Groome at 8, underslots the rest of the way.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that acquiring players you otherwise would not have acquired because that player is injured is a viable draft strategy. Not sure I would have comprised such a large portion of my draft class of those kind of players. And fwiw, I heard things didn’t unfold quite the way SD would have liked on draft night.

Peter: Can you tell us a little about Luke Weaver (STL, SP)?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s really interesting. Throws hard, it moves, the changeup is really good. But the aspects of his delivery that allow for those positives also cannibalize his ability to get on top of his breaking stuff consistently. I’ll tweet a pic of my entire AFL scouting report on him later today, it’s pretty bizarre.

Reek: Buying or selling Dom Smith?

Eric A Longenhagen: Buying.

Zonk: Dan Vogelbach….are you a believer in him as a starting ML 1B?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope.

Zonk: Can you name some pop-up prospects so far this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yohander Mendez (like, top 100 type of helium), Chris Torres, Tyler O’Neil, Dinelson Lamet

Marcus: You stated during the draft that you would not have gone with the strategy the Braves went with. Can you elaborate? Is it with those 3 pitchers in general or the overall strategy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they did well and I thin they executed the plan they set out to. I think they could have still gotten Wentz at 40 and drafted a player I liked more at 3, though I love Anderson. Muller at 44 I’m just not as heavy on as the industry, though monster lefties who touch 95 don’t grow on trees.

Brandon: Hey Eric, any chance Luis Ortiz starts 2017 with the big league club?

Eric A Longenhagen: Predicting callups is hard because there are so many variables that have nothing to do with the player that factor in to something like that. I can tell you that I like Ortiz, have seen three above average pitches from him, and think he has mid-rotation potential.

Sailor Jerry: Will there be a July 2nd big board this year such as kiley had in the past?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, in the middle of that stuff as we speak. We probably won’t have video of the dudes since I just got this gig and wasn’t in the Dominican myself over the winter (though that will change for next year) but we’ll still have lots of good J2 stuff.

Guest: Looks like Steven Moya will be playing regularly with JD Martinez out. Where do you think he’ll be 5 years from now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Korea.

Rob: Edwin Diaz is dominating out the Mariners’ ‘pen. Is this the final nail in the coffin re: his future as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose there’s a chance they give it a try again later but the track record of guys bouncing back and forth isn’t too good. I think I’d just leave him in the bullpen, to be honest.

OutfieldGrass24: It seemed like a reach to take Andrew Yerzy at #52 by the D-backs, but they like his power potential. How much work does he have to do behind the plate to stay there?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s crazy power and it’s to all fields, but we’re talking about very little present skill, defensively. And, the bat-to-ball needs work, too. Going to be one of my more volatile AZL evals.

Russell: How much harder is it to evaluate performance in parks like Las Vegas and Colorado Springs?

Eric A Longenhagen: You know, I didn’t realize how messed up those places were until I went and saw it for myself. The ball just keeps going, and going, and going, and going and after four hours you look up and there have been 30 combined hits and it’s only the 7th inning.

John: Is Sean Newcomb gonna figure it out enough to become a major league starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. His was always a late-bloomer profile. He was still raw in college, pitching at a small school in the northeast….This is only his second full year in pro ball. I’d still be patient with him. If he’s still walking guys like this at this time next year, it’s fair to start checking your watch.

John: Can you please give us your thoughts on Frankie Montas?

Eric A Longenhagen: He throws really freaking hard and I’ve seen a plus slider from him at 90mph (back before 90mph sliders went all main stream) and I’ve seen a plus changeup from him as well. Is any of it consistent? Nope.

baby bull: Of these Outfield Prospect who has best career? Who has highest potential ceiling? Moniak, Brett Phillips, Nick Williams

Eric A Longenhagen: Of those three I’ll take Moniak, but Williams probably has a higher ceiling. Yes, I said ceiling.

D: How do you like Gavin lux?

Eric A Longenhagen: Quite a bit. Has always been a good bet to stay at shortstop and that alone had him on our top 50 radar last winter. He came out this spring and hit, too. Think he’s a big leaguer.

Jay: What are your thoughts on Lucas Herbert? Seems to have started to adjust at A ball the last month or so.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, but I wouldn’t expect much value from the bat long-term. Glove-first there.

Poopy McPoopyFace: Most impressive season by a Giants prospect so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Well Poopy, Chris Shaw is having a fine season.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay all, abbreviated chat today as I have to write up Cody Reed for the site and continue July 2 calls. Remember that I’m chatting again on Monday and that that’s going to be a regular thing from now on. Enjoy your weekends.