Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 3/27

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone. Sorry I’m a few minutes late, was having HTML issues with the Phillies list. Let’s get right to it…

12:03
Jed: What have you heard from Hunter Greene this spring? Has he started throwing? Was a bit of a mixed back last summer.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Upper-90s, better breaking ball than last year.

12:03
Don: Is Joey Lucchesi a viable option in San Diego this year?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

12:04
Tommy N.: What distinguishes Kingery from Urias and Hiura and who do you personally prefer between the three?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Urias is the best contact hitter of those three, Hiura has the most pop, Kingery has both and is the best defender and straight-line runner of the three

12:06
Greg: Any update on Jonathan India’s draft stock? What round was he expected to be picked before the season, and where is he at now? Also, what do you think about his position as a pro?

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably the rds 3 to 5 range right now. Was probably 4 to 6 pre-season. I’d try him all over in pro ball, mostly 2B/3B.

12:07
Huaneeto: Do you see Corbin Burnes, Jon Duplantier or Michael Baez making an impact at the major league level?

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Burnes: Maybe
Duplantier: No
Michel Baez? Probably not

12:07
Bobby: What separates blayne enlow from tyler duffey?? Low 90s velo, dirty curve, no change?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: 8 years

12:08
OlRock: There has been some discord in the Astros community about AJ Reed not being on the 25 man. Do you see any reason he hasn’t made the MLB Roster yet?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: I just don’t think he’s very good

12:08
Connor T.: Ceiling for Roman Quinn, and likely outcome?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Avg everyday player/bench player

12:08
Slurve: What are the biggest challenges in evaluating catching prospects?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: The grind of catching might significantly mask their physical abilities. If you see a guy for two games and he takes a nasty foul ball off the forearm the day before you’re in to see him, he might suck for the series you see because he’s dinged up and you’d have no idea why.

12:10
Let the young live: Most overrated and underrated prospects of 2018?

12:10
Brandon M: Every week, you get questions about “underrated” prospects. In this day and age, is there really such a thing as an underrated prospect? There is so much information out there that usually you already have that prospect covered in your team lists.

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Brandon: You’d be surprised how clear it is that people in the chat don’t read anything on the site, they’re just here to chat. It’s frustrating at times, but I’m not sure there’s a way to change it. People are sneaky bad at digging up info on their own.

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Those questions were almost right next to eachother, btw.

12:12
Jason: Can the Cardinals really keep Carson Kelly down until Yadi retires in 3 years?   I see the value of getting him every day AB’s in Memphis, but aren’t they wasting a valuable resource?

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d split time in the bigs between the two of them. Keeps Yadi fresh, gets Kelly’s feet wet.

12:12
pirates hurdles: Any thoughts about the Bucs strategy to forego top INTL talent and sign 50+ cheaper guys? Is this on purpose or is it due to a Gayo related problem with top guys?

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Philly does that too and has had success. SInce we’re talking about 15/16 year-old kids there’s a lot of physical volatility involved, much more than is even involved in the HS scouting process. So casting a wide net is going to yield some nice surprises as guys suddenly morph into Gregory Polanco or Cesar Hernandez. There’s no single best way to attack IFA, in  my opinion, lots of options.

12:14
Mounds Guy: Do you think Carson Fulmer has the stuff to stay in the rotation?

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah but probably not in the traditional way we think about it. Maybe he could be what Lance McCullers was in the playoffs or something like that, but he’s not a 6/7 innings workhorse, he doesn’t work efficiently for that.

12:15
Mr. Patient: Any Big Ten players you’re keeping an eye on?

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Ryan Feltner at Ohio State, Brady Schanuel (sp?) and Rob Neustrom at Iowa, Nick Dunn at Maryland

12:18
Odapm: Have you ever seen a player for the first time that just absolutely blew you away that you, or seemingly anyone else (in the meaningful scouting community), had never heard of before?

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: I saw Ramon Morla sit 97-100 in his first pitching appearance. He blew his elbow out in his second inning of work.

12:19
Bravesy McBravesface: What makes Brice Turang stand out among the prep shortstops?  From reading all of the reports, it seems like Nander de Sedas would be the top prep shortstop in this draft.  Why is Turang considered a top 10 prospect, but de Sedas gets pegged for the middle of the first round?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Better chance to stay at SS, some would say better chance to hit for avg, too.

12:19
backfields: Hi! I submitted this last week to both you and Kiley but never got it answered. Who do you prefer more over the long term? Akil Baddoo or Nolan Jones? Thanks!

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Those two have the same FV for us. I’ll take Baddoo.

12:21
Odapm: Have you had any looks at Robbie Erlin the past 4 to 6 months?

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: I believe I saw him on a back field somewhere but I can’t recall how he looked.

12:22
Anthony: Have you seen Jose Soriano this spring?

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Yep. Looks great. Mid-90s, is in great shape, plus breaking ball. He’s only done it an inning at a time so far this spring (I’ve seen both his starts) but if he holds that kind of stuff for 5-6 innings early in the year he’s a top 100 guy.

12:24
Lunch Angle: How often are raw power grades quantified objectively, using home run distance or exit velocity or something?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: You can use exit velos if you have them, or you can have visual check points you use during BP that make it a little cleaner. I think there’s room for subjectivity, personally.

12:25
Bravesy McBravesface: Is there significant risk of Nolan Gorman moving to first base?  Do you think Triston Casas can be a viable defender at third base?

12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Gorman has been bad at third when I’ve seen him this spring and his body has backed up, so I guess there’s more risk now than there was last summer. Casas is 1b-only for me.

12:27
Bravesy McBravesface: How much has your draft board changed from it’s release to right now?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: A bunch and we’ll share the update after NHSI since guys are gonna move a lot because of that.

12:27
Anthony: What do you see as Pedro Avila’s projection? 3/4- type, or a bit less than that?

12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s the ceiling for me, more likely a straight up #4, which is still good.

12:28
Pip: It seems you guys are a little higher on Blake Perkins than most. I know they are both 40 FV, but why put him over a guy like Johnson? They are both toolsy outfielders, and Johnson may be a year older but he also started to translate his tools into results. Perkins started to to a lesser extent, but seems a good deal farther behind.

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Perkins’ glove doesn’t show up on paper. He’s a potential plus defensive CF. Also, he may have elite ball/strike recognition.

12:29
Bravesy McBravesface: How many college arms do you think get drafted in the top 10?

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: 4

12:30
Alexander Canario: Do I have the second highest ceiling in the Giants farm system after my boy Heliot?

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

12:31
Charlie : How do you bridge the gap for players who consistently underperformed Tools in MiLB who are primed to reach in MLB versus bound to perpetually underperform? Judge / Sanchez are recent Yanks who seemed to have overshot MiLB production with consistently high raw grades. Any close to major prospects you are looking to do that this year? (Ie Alfaro?)

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Franchy Cordero

12:31
ryan: do you think Senzel will be a meaningful contributor for the Reds this year? i assume he will take over for whoever of Peraza/Gennett falters first.

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed

12:33
Curious Reader: If I am an avg LFer with an 80 hit tool, what is the minimum tools I need for power, speed and arm to be a good major leaguer?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Wouldn’t slap an 8 on his bat, but something like this: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4229&position=2B

12:33
Waltharius: Just hoe good is Luis Patino?

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty good. 95-97, t99, some breaking ball feel. Small frame. Lots of relief risk, but he’s a a good prospect.

12:35
Chip : No love for Jeremy Eierman this season?

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Wasn’t hitting early on, has been better lately.

12:35
A big dumb idiot: Do you think Vlad & Bo will be able to handle AA off the bat?

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: es

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes*

12:35
Slothrop: Did you ever see Oscar Tavares play?

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, in Fall League. He was electric.

12:36
Yefri Del Rosario: What does my projection look like?

12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: You were 90-95 and flashing a 55 breaking ball when I saw you last week. Esteury Ruiz hit 94 up and away about 415 to RCF.

12:37
Hinkie: Have you noticed/heard which draft prospects the Phillies seem to be scouting the most ?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: I heard Klentak was in FL seeing players, Almaraz was here at UNLV/ASU last Tuesday.

12:38
Brett Graves: What is my projection for this year and beyond?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: Kinda like you as a reliever.

12:38
Nikko: Are there any prospects who have had a command grade higher than 50?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: Mike Leake

12:38
Z: Have you seen or heard anything on Mitchell White this spring? Hoping that he regains some of that late-season diminished velocity. All the other ingredients are in place for an effective pitcher at the ML-level.

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Won’t break camp with an affiliate

12:39
Jim : Does Greyson Jenista go top 10?

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so.

12:39
Nick: Have you seen or heard about any decent prospects making major swing adjustments this year that could lead to a break out?

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Sam Travis

12:39
Forbort: Victor Robles has very good contact skills. But the power leaves some to be desired. Is that due to his physical limitations, mechanics, or approach? Could he be someone who should lift the ball more?

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s just not a big, thumping power hitter. There will still be power there, just not crazy huge power. I wouldn’t change a thing about him.

12:40
Hans Gruber: Do you see F. Mejia sticking at catcher?  I was under the impression he was, but have been hearing mixed narratives about this and thought you would have some good insight. Thank you!

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: He could but his bat is going to be big league ready much earlier than his glove ( it might already be) so I get why a move has been discussed and explored on the field.

12:41
Nicky: Some middle infield prospects are expected to move to outfiel.(Barreto, Lewis, Mateo) Are there any former middle infield prospects who  you or scouts expected to move to OF in bigs but stayed at MI for a long time?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: The guys who I can think of off the top of my head have all been moved to the outfield. (Hamilton, Quinn, the Uptons, Oduubel Herrera…)

12:42
Pip: Fedde’s velocity was back up this spring and he looked pretty ready in most outings. Is it pretty easy to see him in the starting rotation next year if he can just keep health? Is he more of a peak #4 to you or do you think he has #3 or maybe even #2 upside?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Had a scout tell me the ballpark radar guns in West Palm/Jupiter have been hot all spring. Fedde has been 93-96, not touching 99 like you’ve seen on TV.

12:43
Gus : Do you like Freudis Nova or Yasel Antuna’s ceiling more for fantasy purposes?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Nova

12:43
Jason: Do you ever give a pass to a team that holds players that look ready down in AAA to start season? Like ones that have financial problems like Rays, A’s, etc?

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: I agree with it from a procedural, team-building standpoint but seek to change the rules that incentivize such actions because I think it’s bad for the players and for baseball.

12:45
Joey: Should Dustin Fowler be getting more love from people? Feel like he could be a quiet breakout candidate this year if he wins one of the A’s OF spots

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Has been on our 100 two years running, think he’s a good everyday player.

12:45
todd: Is Mackenzie Gore the best pitching prospect you have ever seen?

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: No, I saw Strasburg and Cole when they were clearly ready for the Majors.

12:46
Otter: Would it be better if we thought of prospects systems more by age, rather than eligibility? I understand that a lot of prospecting and the interest around it is because that it is hard to see a 22 year old at AA or a 19 year old in A-, but in terms of system rankings, it seems to me that age is more interesting/important than if a player has burned rookie eligibility.

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: There’s no objectively correct way to do it. Your way ignores late-blooming guys in their mid-20s. We tried to write about these types of players during Prospect Week: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-prospect-scouting-reports/

12:47
Red: Yairo Munoz a feel-good story or could he have enough in both his bat and glove to open some eyes if he gets the chance?

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: I like him as a super utility guy

12:48
Spa City: What is your take on the “hitch” in Kyle Tucker’s swing?  I think his swing is art work, and I don’t see the “hitch”.

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: ? He’s fine.

12:49
TKDC: Is there so much variability and unpredictability in relievers that it is fairly worthless to even grade them as prospects?

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: That seems lazy. I think you need to consider those factors when you think about them, though.

12:49
Nicky: Ohtani hit without leg kick in yesterday’s game. Can he make more contact with that or just bad for his power?

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: I feel the same way about this as I have from the start: he should just be pitching./

12:50
Coach K: I know this is a prospect chat and Dahl has exceeded rookie status, but in reality he still is a prospect due to some injury bug that won’t go away. In your opinion, does Dahl still have the high upside at age 24 many predicted, or is he yet another that because of multiple injuries has lost too many reps?

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him a bunch this spring and am pretty concerned about the swing and miss. Power is still there, so if he hits he’s going to be very good. He just wasn’t good when I’ve been in the ballpark.

12:51
todd: Is Mackenzie Gore a top 10 prospect by the end of the year?

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: yes

12:52
Riley: How do you feel about Ronald Guzman? Disappointing he hasn’t tapped into his power potential, but could he be an above average regular?

12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Just a 50 for me

12:52
Riley: Who is a reliever that might not be well known right now but might be used in high leverage situations this year or soon?

12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Jairo Diaz

12:53
Charlie : How much of your analysis is your personal scouting versus circulating industry knowledge? Is there a big gap between what independent scouts know versus internal team sources?

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a mix and it depends on the individual player in question. Execs know more about their players than scouts from other teams, scouts from other teams know more about players i a given org than scouts from that org (so, if a Montreal scout covers Portland’s farm system top to bottom, the Montreal scout probably knows more about that system than the typical Portland scout who spends his time working on other teams)

12:54
hmm..: Is that your way of saying you expect everyone to read everything before asking a question?

12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: No, but you’d be shocked at how many ‘Who do you like more, This guy or That guy?” when both those guys are ranked on the 100 or a team list.

12:57
Rusty: I probably shouldn’t be doing this to myself.  But have any of the intl players the Braves gave up made any kind of splash this spring?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Of the guys I’ve seen (Soto, Del Rosario, Maitan), no.

12:58
RHall: Oooo, you were working on the Phillies list? When can we expect that to be posted?

12:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably tomorrow, Thurs at latest

12:58
Pickle Nick: Gage Canning reminds me a lot of Frank Catalanotto (small, left-handed, contact hitter, not much power, sprays ball to all fields). The guy can really rake but Catalanotto was about a 1-2 WAR player on average, due to his defense. How does Gage project in CF? Does he hit the ball enough in the air to take advantage of the new baseball’s?

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Still a 4 bat for me but I think you can make mechanical adjustments to improve that. He’s fine in CF.

12:59
Jim J: We always hear about the powerhouse colleges, like LSU and Vanderbuilt, that continually produce excellent prospects. What are some up and coming programs that could be powerhouses in the near future?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: ‘Powerhouse’ might be excessive for these programs (I’d call Oregon St, UCLA, FLorida, etc the powerhouses) but Creighton, Grand Canyon and some of the forward-thinking JUCOs have a chance to separate themselves from other programs in their conference/level in a significant way.

1:01
Let’s go Red Sox : ETA on 2018 Sox prospect list?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Late this week/early next week.

1:01
Jorge Lopez: Am I a solid big league reliever?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think you find a way to get there

1:01
Gus : Who’s the next prospects outside the top 100 that you can see jumping into the top 30 next year?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Seuly Matias has that kind of skillset if he hits

1:02
Fat Matt: After reading the Yankees prospect list, a huge take away for me is how many guys throw 98+.  They also seem to have a track record for getting more velo for their guys.  Do they have more hard throwers than most systems?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and I’ve been trying to deduce how they’re doing it for going on three years.

1:03
Blue Jay Dan: Teoscar Hernandez has been raking this spring, but of course it’s only spring and he still has to work on his strikeouts. Are you bearish or bullish of his chances of being at least a 50FV player?

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m bullish on him as a 50

1:03
Long John Silver: Often on scouting reports you give guys 20/55 hit tool and then say they already have advanced feel for hitting. Shouldn’t their current grade be higher if that tool is developing early

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: The current grade reflects what the player would do in the big leagues right now, so most players in the low minors are 20s or close to it. It’s also kind of pointless to predict exactly what an 18-year old player would do in the big leagues so, as a shorthand, we tend to use 20 to describe a typical high school bat, 25 to describe an advanced HS bat, 30 for the average college bat, 35 for someone advanced. We think that’s a better way to communicate the skillset that avoids the pretense of certainty and granularity.

1:06
John: Any personal favorite prospects/former prospects you think badly need a trade to ever get a real chance?

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: RAY BLACK

1:07
Judge: What do you think about Ohtani’s performance? Is he still the best prospect?

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Rowley and I saw him this week. He was still 92-95, no command, but threw some of the nastiest splits and sliders I’ve ever seen. This was the second time I’ve seen him this spring and I’m not psyched about where he’s at, but still think he’ll ultimately be fine.

1:08
Blue Jay Dan: What do you think of Anthony Seigler? I’ve read that his stock is up this spring due to his nice catching skills.

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed, we have him near the back of the first round right now, ahead of Banfield.

1:09
Guy Person: Anyone you’ve seen recently you want to mention?

1:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Maitan. No bueno. Trent Deveaux looks tremendous.

1:09
Bob: If the Pirates tank and trade Harrison at the deadline do you see Kramer getting a shot at the regular 2B job drown the stretch? What kind of player can he be?

1:10
Eric A Longenhagen: I do. Have had a UTIL grade on him since college but they made a swing tweak last year and there might be more to the offensive profile now.

1:10
Harvey the Rabbit: Sheldon Neuse’s bat sure looked good this spring. Where is his glove and arm going to allow him to play?

1:10
Eric A Longenhagen: 3b

1:10
Does spring training matter: Was there any prospect that really impressed you this spring? Maybe you were low on someone and then was like why they might actually turn out better then I though?

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Dodgers OF who played both ways at BC. Donovan Casey.

1:12
Deke: Any mid-round 2018 college bats that you think could make a substantial leap in performance once they get to pro ball due to untapped tools? Thanks!

1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Cadyn grenier

1:12
Jacob: What do you think are the odds that the Phillies regret the Kingery extension?

1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: 10%?

1:12
Joe Joe: How much does MLB Spring Training affect prospect evaluations? I expect it doesn’t matter much except maybe in the extremes (e.g., guys having a lot of trouble making contact)

1:13
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m at the point where I throw out bad spring/fall looks. If a guy is really good, that gets folded in.

1:13
Runelvys Gergich: What’s the story with Wilmer Font? You ever had the chance to scout him and see if he has anything other than a high fastball?

1:13
Eric A Longenhagen: Relief for me. Slider is good, too.

1:14
Jeff: Most overall potential: Tristen Lutz or Jo Adell?

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Adell

1:14
Notaproscout: How do you deal with travel fatigue?

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Yoga, hydration, backrubs from wife

1:15
chet: Colton Welker or Nolan Jones – who do you like more? likelihood they stick at 3b?

1:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Have mixed feeling about both at 3B, like Welker’s chances of hitting for power more than Jones but Jones might have an elite approach

1:15
Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Is there a scale that a certain exit velocity means a certain raw power grade?

1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Teams probably have some comboo of max exit velo or avg exit velo or weighted scale of some kind that spits out a normal distribution that could be applied to the scouting scale.

1:16
Babe Lincoln: Trying to think about prospect projection and percentile outcomes.  What percentile outcome would you say A-ball Noah Syndergaard has reached?  What percentile outcome would you say A-ball Zack Wheeler has reached?

1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: 90th/40th

1:17
Blue Jays Dan: Any chance Tristan Pompey makes it to Toronto’s 2nd round pick at 53?

1:17
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

1:17
Stannis for President: What exactly is the “hit” tool, and how does it overlap (or not) with pitch recognition, patience, and eventual OBP and BB%?

1:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Some combination of bat control, hand-eye and contact quality, the last of which depends on a few physical variables. It does overlap with some of what you’re describing (recog for sure)

1:18
Mounds Guy: Shane McLanahan has been dealing this year. Any downsides for him?

1:18
Eric A Longenhagen: has had a TJ

1:19
Jay: Any hope for Michael Gettys or does he permanently end up in the “toolsy but too flawed” archive?

1:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Still hope he becomes Drew Stubbs

1:19
John Dillinger: Who’s the last leadoff profile guy (speed, on base, contact, minimal power) to be drafted and become a star a la Kenny Lofton? Are these types of players no longer valued like they used to be?

1:21
Eric A Longenhagen: There’s probably a selection bias here because of how lineup construction has changed. I guess Buxton might be that. Lindor is that but not hitting leadoff because of the power he’s grown into.

1:21
Guest: Do you think that Trevor Oaks can be a big league starter?

1:21
Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a 5th/6th starter but I know scouts who like him a little better than that.

1:22
Scott: DBacks fan here that needs to hear something good about our system:  Duplantier?

1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: They’re handling him carefully this spring (I haven’t heard he’s hurt but I’ve also heard he isn’t throwing) so nothing new there, but his stuff was nasty last season. Daulton Varsho has looked very good.

1:23
Mattyb: Thoughts on Art Warren?

1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Was 95-98 with a plus slider in a big league game I saw recently. Think he’s gonna be a good late-inning arm.

1:24
Raj: Using the same rationale behind their selection of Austin Beck last year (they can’t get upside like this in the open market), do you see the A’s picking a high upside OF like Kalenic or Connor Scott?

1:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I could see that.

1:24
ToddBJMB: Is Travis Swaggerty the biggest riser in terms of the college bats?  Does he make it to 12?

1:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Some really love him and would agree with you. I’m still a little skeptical. I like him, just not as much as Madrigal overall and not as much as Bohm from an offensive standpoint.

1:26
J Boogie: If you could somehow have a personal TrackMan unit on your phone, would that give you a significant advantage over other scouts who would not have the same thing?

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. More information is good if you know how to sift through it.

1:26
Endy Chavez: Amed Rosario was a candidate to be the number one overall prospect and now he feels like kind of an afterthought. Are you still a believer?

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but needs mechanical work.

1:27
Derek : Is Estury Ruiz a real deal prospect? or is it to early to tell?

1:27
Eric A Longenhagen: His bat is for real

1:28
Dominic: Does Pirate’s OF Jordan Luplow have a road to playing time?  what’s his FV, 45?

1:28
Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a ton of power there but I think he’s a platoon OF or bench bat

1:28
Wil: Who do you like more between Jeisson Rosario and Tirso Ornelas? Can they both be above average players? Thanks!

1:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Liek them both. Rosario has more upside (chance to stay in CF) Ornelas has more certainty because the offensive profile is much more stable.

1:29
TheeHen4: You see much upside in Freddy Peralta? Worth a pickup in a dynasty points league w/ emphasis on Ks?

1:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Like him, either a good #4 or high-K multi-inning reliever

1:30
John: Eric, I see Logan Gilbert was up to 124 pitches on Friday, and has been going over 100 pitches relatively frequently.  Is this a concern for you?

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Goo, I hadn’t seen that so thanks for the tip. He’s a physical beast who does it pretty easy so I’m not overly concerned, but I’d rather they handle him conservatively for selfish reasons.

1:32
Luis: What do you think of Luis Campusano? Looks like he could be a legitimate catching prospect. Thanks for your time.

1:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Good athlete for a catcher, has power, but not a good defender right now and has seen time at 1B this spring. Probably just so all the young SD catchers can play somewhere (LCB, Hunt and Homza need to share reps)

1:33
John: Eric, from what I’ve gathered, Mize and Liberatore are probably the top two arms right now, with McClanahan and Hankins below them, and Rolison right there.  Is that roughly how you see the top 5 now (provided they all stay healthy).

1:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Yep

1:34
P Town: Is it possible the Tigers get creative and take Connor Scott number 1 overall?

1:34
Eric A Longenhagen: If they get creative I think it’ll be with Kelenic

1:34
Kevin McReynolds: Where does Larnach figure in the draft this yr? Best guess on FV for him?

1:34
Eric A Longenhagen: 45, mid to late rd 1

1:34
Pip: Fedde was closer to 90-93 last year though during his brief debut. Now post injury he’s regained his mid 90s velocity.

1:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Keep in mind Fedde’s last start he pitched hurt. he was 93-96 in his first two

1:35
Dave Mc: Orioles media has been talking up Rule 5 pick Pedro Araujo. He had a good spring. What do you think?

1:35
Eric A Longenhagen: 70 slider, everything else is average or below

1:35
JB: Victor Robles or Manny Margot?

1:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Robles

1:35
Paul: Have you seen UCLA this year? Thoughts on Toglia and Strumpf?

1:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Just one look (the game Olsen got hit in the face) so no firm evals yet but generally positive on both so far.

1:36
John: Eric, given his body, Nolan Gorman really looks like a future 1B to me.  How realistic is it that he sticks at 3B?

1:38
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d normally agree with you, but lately I’ve been thinking about this whole ‘reverse projection’ thing which, if you buy into it, is why I was light on Bo Bichette, Forrest Whitley and some other guys in the past. So I used to look at a guy like Gorman and think that because the body has backed up since last summer, it’ll continue heading in that direction. but if you like the player’s makeup and think he’ll listen when you ask him to get leaner, then you could argue his defensive profile has projection.

1:39
Joe Joe: Just feedback, I liked the post-prospect report. Sure a lot of the shine may be gone, but I hate that prospects just drop off coverage when they exceed rookie eligibility and they are sent back to the minors for more work.

1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, I hope we can do stuff like that more frequently now that there are two of us.

1:39
MK: What team has drafted the best in the past 3 years?

1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: LAD

1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: NYY

1:40
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, it’s probably one of those two

1:40
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, that’s it for me. Thanks for coming this week. Remember we’ll have a marathon chat here on opening day so come by and talk more baseball with us.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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whiptydojoe
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whiptydojoe

I’ve gotta say: Eric just rubs me the wrong way.

Example:
Chatter “Have you ever seen a prospect that just blew you away from your first viewing?”
Eric “I saw a guy sit at 97-100 and then blow out his elbow the next inning.”

Really? Dudes career is over and he uses it as a punchline? Hard pass