Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat – 5/20/16

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s begin.

Oliver: Thoughts on Baby Sandman (Mariano Jr)? Looks like hes off to a good start, but k/9s dropped from last year and his walks are up a lot

Eric A Longenhagen: Mariano III (that’s right, he’s a third, not a junior) hadn’t played a whole lot of baseball before he was drafted so there’s just more room to project on the total package. Value-wise, the upside is limited because he’s never going to be more than a reliever.

Patrick: Best pitch featured by a Phillies pitcher: Nola’s curveball, Vince’s fastball, or Neris’s splitter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nola’s curveball plays up against righties because of his arm slot and really isn’t more than a 55 or 60. I’ll say Neris’ splitter. I have no idea where that came from.

Anonymous Coward: Thoughts on taking HS pitchers 1-1 in general? What about in the case of Groome?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Groome is the most talented player in the class and I would have a hard time not taking the most talented player in the class if I were picking 1-1. Having said that, my job isn’t going to be evaluated by how this pick turns out like the jobs of members of Philly’s front office will. Given the track record of highly selected HS arms (which is bad) and Groome’s off-field stuff (which just adds to his riskiness) it’s justifiable to go in another direction.

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: Have you seen or heard anything about Brady Aiken? Word is, he’s throwing off a mound and may be pitching in games soon.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. Saw him throw a bullpen a little while ago and he’s rusty but there are flashes of brilliance. He’s going to face live hitting soon and will probably end up starting in the AZL once Extended wraps up. He’s gotten big, like really big, and I showed a picture to a scout who saw him in HS who refuses to believe that it was Brady Aiken.

Rick: Are you writing any 2016 Draft material?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for FG. It was too late in the game to leave Keith and ESPN hanging. That’s why, if you want draft stuff from me that’s not behind a pay wall, I suggest you ask now instead of questions like “When will Prospect X be in the majors?”, which I can’t answer because too many external variables impact stuff like that.

Ross: How is Alex Jackson looking these days? Is DJ Peterson a lost cause?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not good. I know he was just promoted but he didn’t look good when I saw him down here a few weeks ago and scouts haven’t found anything to be optimistic about. The bat speed is still there and the swing is still visually pleasing but he doesn’t have bat control and everything triggers late. No bueno.

Alex: Are Delvin Perez’s “character concerns” being overblown and overanalyzed or is it a legit worry? Is it just a young kid being immature or is it something more serious? Thanks Eric and glad to have you here at FG!

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s justifiable for teams to worry about stuff like that if they’re about to give the kid $6+ mil AND pass on other talented players to take him. I also think part of the reason teams shy away from player like Perez is because they’re not confident in their own player devo infrastructure at the lowest levels. Ita’s often insufficient, especially for players from other cultures.

wrburgess: Some of the negative views against Kyle Lewis is that he hasn’t faced quality pitching in college, but he has performed well in Cape Cod and other spotlight sessions. Based on your own views, does low-quality pitching matter as much for his potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: It isn’t Kyle Lewis’ fault that the pitching he’s faced at Mercer has mostly been bad and, other than maybe making it harder for him to adjust to seeing quality pitching more regularly in pro ball, it doesn’t impact his potential. What it does do is make him harder to scout, since scouts want to see if you can track and square pro-quality stuff. Teams are risk-averse and not knowing whether Lewis can identify a 50 curveball simply because he’s never had to makes him riskier than some Kyle Lewis clone who has raked in the SEC for three years.

Dock Ellis: Welcome to FG, Eric! I’ve been reading your stuff since the Crashburn Alley days. Two questions: How good is JP Crawford going to be, and do you have any funny Keith Law stories since you’ve worked with him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Crawford a lot, think he’s a 60 defender at SS (at least) and might even hit enough to slot near the top of a lineup. Not much in the way of funny Klaw stories because he doesn’t do much other than go to baseball games, eat, take pictures of what he’s eating, and source scouts when he’s around me.

j6takish: What are your interests outside of baseball? We like to ask chatters non baseball questions. Jeff has volcanoes, eno has beer. Also people seem to have very polarizing opinions of Cistulli, do you find his antics delightful?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like other sports and coached basketball in PA before I moved to Arizona. Also like Magic: The Gathering. I rather enjoy Cistulli.

AJ Preller: Any worries about Javy Guerra, or just a slow start?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was in to see him a few weeks ago at Elsinore and he looks fine. He’s only a 45 runner but he’s so smooth at SS that I think it works. Bat control, good hand-eye, sneaky power….I like him a lot. Luis Urias is really interesting, too.

Dave: Lots of hype around Kevin Maitan. Is he a potential superstar or is the hype a bit too much? How does Maitan at 16 and Sano at 16 compare in your opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bocaton > Maitan

Eric A Longenhagen: Part of why Maitan was on the radar so early is because of how seen he matured, physically. But he’ll probably still be atop my J2 board.

Dooduh: Where do you rank Chris Okey of the top catchers in the draft? Think he makes it thru rd 1?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are, weirdly, a lot of interesting catching prospects in this year’s draft and Okey has a better shot at remaining behind the plate than guys like Thaiss and Collins, though it isn’t a lock. I don’t think Okey goes in Rd1 unless it’s for under slot, though.

Dooduh: Why isn’t Robert Tyler getting more love? Looks like a beast to me. Should go in the top half of rd 1 IMO. Haven’t seen him that high in any mocks tho. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some injury history, control issues, doesn’t consistently get on top of his curveball. I love the arm strength and the changeup, but it’s hard to teach any pitching prospect, let alone a college one, a better curveball than they naturally possess.

Bren: Would Will Craig be a big overdraft for the Mets at #19? Any chance they can get him at #31, or do they have to pop him if they think he’s there guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: In a vacuum, Craig is an overdraft at #19. BUT if you go underslot with Craig at 19 and use the savings to grab a falling high school arm at #31? Take a bow.

AJ Preller: Who is the better hitter, Ray or Senzel?

Eric A Longenhagen: Senzel has the better hit tool, Ray might end up with a higher career batting average.

Bill: IIRC you noticed some stride issues with JP Crawford during the AFL this past fall. Anything different now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, Crawford has undergone some changes to his stride over the past year+. I’ll see him next month and will be looking to see if he’s either a) adjusted to the change and looks more comfortable or b) scrapped it and gone back to what made him successful before that.

James: Could Nolan Jones be in play for the Phillies at 42?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can’t see him falling that far, top 15 talent for me.

Georgie: What do you think about Casey Gillaspie’s start to the season? Do you think he can make it to the majors by the end of this year if he can keep this improvement the rest of the way?

Eric A Longenhagen: I didn’t like what I saw in last year’s AFL and wouldn’t get my hopes up just yet.

Sailor Jerry: What were your thoughts on Trayce Thompson coming up as a prospect? He seems to be holding his own this year when he receives playing time

Eric A Longenhagen: Projectable athlete, 7 run, 6 potential defense in CF, 55 raw power but the approach, lever length and pitch recognition all pointed to a 40 bat or less. Saw him late last year and thought he had made real strides, grown into his body and was ready to take off. I’m in on Trayce.

JV: When will Clint Frazier be up and what do you see him developing into?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure when he’ll be up. The bat speed and power are crazy but it comes at the expense of effort and he has a little mechanical hiccup in his swing that has him pushing stuff to right field that he should be pulling into the left field seats. If that gets ironed out, he could be a monster. If not I still think he’s a big leaguer. Could play CF in a pinch, too.

Oklahomabrave: Which of the Braves pitching prospects out of Newcombe, Fried, Toussaint, Sims, Soroka, do you like best?

Eric A Longenhagen: Newcomb

BJ: Err… who are you?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m Batman.

AJ Preller: Good Morning Eric, and welcome aboard. What do you see the Padres doing with their top 10 pick? Baseball America mentioned they have shown up in force for prep hitters, is that an indication of which way they lean?

Eric A Longenhagen: If Moniak or Rutherford fall there they’d be good values. Perez too, obviously. I expect the Padres do some creative things given the picks and bonus $ they have. Expect a splash with 24 or 25.

Jimmy: Not sure if you do fantasy oriented questions but just in case – better use of a roster spot in a league where about 300 prospects are rostered – Franklyin Kilome, Domingo Acevedo, Junior Fernandez or Dylan Cease?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kilome, but Acevedo is closest to generating value as a reliever (which is what I think he is, ultimately). Cease probably needs 4+ years of devo.

ZZ: Is a reasonable expectation for Corey Ray’s floor something like a 100-105 wRC+ with good-not-great defense (maybe +2.5 runs saved) in left field?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think that’s very reasonable.

Bing Crosby: Favorite minor league parks/cities?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fort Myers, Lehigh Valley, Springfield (MO), Lake Elsinore

Kevin: What are your thoughts on the crop of young Brewers prospects at Low-A Wisconsin (Clark, Diaz, Harrison, Gatewood, Denson)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Clark looks great. I think he’s going to hit and stay in CF. Diaz I think could be a 45/50 everyday player at 2B. I loved what I saw from Monte Harrison this spring and expected a breakout but he’s not hitting. Gatewood, I don’t think, will ever hit, but of course the raw power is very enticing.

Poopy McPoopyFace: Which draft prospects do you really like that would be available in the second round where the Giants pick for the first time?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bryson Brigman, Hudson Sanchez, Brandon Marsh, Jameson Fisher.

Dr Yes: What’s the 411 on Yohander Mendez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I love him. Saw him this spring and he was low-to-mid 90s with some wiggle, above average changeup and slider, already knows how to use the slider vs righties. Think he’s got mid-rotation potential.

ClickClick: You mention that Senzel has a good hit tool. How is he different from, say, Colin Moran. Senzel may have slightly better defense, but neither seem to have the power you want in a Corner Bat.

Eric A Longenhagen: I was never on Moran. I think Senzel’s raw power plays down in games and have a 50 on his game power. He’s a pretty good athlete and might tap into more with an adjustment or two. I had a mid first round grade on him after seeing him here in A early this spring.

Nancy: Noticed Gilbert Lara had a rough end to 2015. Is that just a fatigue thing? What’s your overall opinion on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He definitely looked tired, bat speed was gone. He’s looked a little bit better this spring but is still having issues with timing and is starting to fill out to the point where it’ll be time to move him off SS.

MP: What do you think the future holds for Austin Meadows? Maybe a challenge trade of some kind for a SS prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can’t see PIT selling low there. If they were though, I’d be buying.

Frank: Alex Reyes a top of the rotation guy? Future ace? Thanks and welcome

Eric A Longenhagen: “Ace” is a term thrown around far too loosely. I think Reyes is one of the top 10 pitching prospects in all of baseball and he’s likely a future #3. He was 95-97 in Fall League, flashed a plus curveball, above average slider, average change.

Eric A Longenhagen: For reference, Jake Arrieta threw on the backfields while rehabbing and it looked like this on paper:
Fastball: 60
Curveball: 70
Cutter: 70
Changeup: 50/55
Above average control. That’s an ace.

Proswagonist: Any chance Braxton Garrett makes it down to the Astors at 17?

Eric A Longenhagen: Doubt it, but one of those top prep arms has to fall. Garrett, Wentz, Anderson, Manning…they can’t all go top 15. Whitley will probably be there.

Yorman: Peaches on pizza?

Eric A Longenhagen: GTFO

Brendan Brattengurg: Dodgers prospects usually focus on their arms but what do you think of Verdugo, Bellinger and Yusniel Diaz?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like all of those guys, Diaz does a little bit of everything but is going to make an adjustment or two to hit balls in the bottom of the zone more regularly. Verdugo has one of the quickest bats in the minors.

LioneeR: I am probably missing an inside joke, but who is Bocaton?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bocaton is Miguel Sano’s nickname.

Steve: Based on what you’ve heard thus far, who are the top three players taken in June, in order?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s just too far out for that kind of thing, sorry.

Little Papi: Any prospect (not named Mondesí) that you grade higher than the overall market from the Royals organization?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gerson Garabito

Q-Ball: When you look at Dan Vogelbach, what do you see? A left-handed Billy Butler? Or a quad-A slugger who eventually goes to Japan?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter scenario is probably a little too specific for my taste but I don’t think Vogelbach is an everyday big leaguer.

Little Papi: Thoughts on Josh Staumont? Can he stick in the rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s the easiest 101mph fastball I’ve ever seen, but no. Relief for me.

Albert: Are you a Dom smith fan? What kind of player will he be in the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen: I am, think he’s an above average everyday 1B.

James: Do you think Lucas Sims can stick as a starter? Maybe a #3 type as his ceiling? Or is he likely to be a late inning reliever.

Eric A Longenhagen: Relief. Fastball plays below its velocity because it doesn’t move. Love that breaking ball, though.

Teddy: Hey Eric, if you were in the Cubs position of having a very small bonus pool in this year’s draft, what would you recommend they do with their picks?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought about this a lot yesterday and can’t envision a scenario where they do anything creative or sneaky. They’ll probably just take the best signable player on their board at #104..

Blue: What is Taylor Trammel doing to shoot up draft boards? What’s the source of helium?

Eric A Longenhagen: No doubt physical tools for CF, two sport athlete (he had 36 TDs last fall) who might take off once he focuses on baseball.

David: Where did all of these SS prospects come from? Is it just me or the number of top SS guys right now very abnormal.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think there’s a cause for what we’re seeing right now, just randomness. But I’m certainly not complaining. Less Pete Kozma types, please.

Hurtado: How can you handle the mediocre beer in Phoenix?

Outside BRI it’s a wasteland.

Eric A Longenhagen: By drinking whiskey.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, that’s going to wrap it up for today. Hope you all have a good weekend and thanks for stopping by.