Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 5/3

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, everyone. Gotta grab a coffee and tweet a link, so will be back momentarily.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’m back.

Bill: Any word on who the Mets are in on post round 1?

Eric A Longenhagen: No and I doubt we narrow it to anything more than a specific classification of player by draft day. They’re not really in position to target anyone specific with their second pick, too many cop picks ahead of them.

Joe: Thoughts on Caleb Feguson?

Eric A Longenhagen: above avg curveball, fastball is average, change a hair below. An up and down arm as far as we’re concerned.

Joe: How legit is dunand?

Eric A Longenhagen: The power is legit, the questions are where he fits defensively and whether there’s enough contact.

James: Why is Greyson Jenista not a first round lock? Are teams worried about his position/glove?

Eric A Longenhagen: ANd swing

Benjamin: Did fernando romero flash a plus changeup yesterday? Otherwise, super impressive first start, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Didn’t watch the entire start, so can’t say definitively. I didn’t see one. But yeah, a good start.

Slothrop: How much does it matter that Ben Simmons seemingly can’t score without dunking the basketball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Less than it meant for Stromile Swift because Simmons does like 5 other things really well. He’s also a hyper-competitive  21-year-old so I’m betting he adds a jumper at some point.

Andrew: Can Peter Alonso be an average to above average starting 1B if he was called up right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Cody: David Fletcher has started the year on a tear! Any chance he gets an opportunity at some point this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe, but long term he’s a utility guy and an opportunity for him this year means injuries have torched the Halos left side of the infield.

Tommy N.: Have you heard anything about Cal Quantrill lately seems like his breaking pitch has improved, any thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him twice this spring and it flashed 55 a few times, but generally I thought his command and delivery had backed up a bit.

Jake Lamb of God: Is Seby Zavala going to be better than Zack Collins?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess there’s a chance things break that way if the org ends up seeing Collins as 1B/DH-only and Seby somehow ends up playing everyday. That’s probably how he ends up out WARing Collins

MR: Where is McKenzie Gore – it’s been longer than 7 days?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has a blister, he’s on the DL

MR: Luis Almanzar still hasn’t been assigned – is there something to worry about?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, it’s a weird situation. He looks much thinner than he did before he signed, just can’t add weight/strength. Have seen him here in extended and he’s not impacting the baseball the way he was as an amateur and I don’t know why.

JG: Miguel Amaya’s bat in the early going has looked *very* promising from a statistical standpoint. Any intel on how legit the performance has been? He’s 19, in the MWL, and has already drawn praise for his glove. If the bat is already coming along, what kind of prospect are we potentially looking at in terms of FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: I shoved him way up the Cubs list for a reason. The offensive tools were just masked by the grind of catching last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-chicago-cubs

Eric A Longenhagen: Could be a 50 FV by the end of the year, more likely he’s a 45.

JD Martin: Yordan Alvarez has been looking very good this year so far in AA, any chance he gets a look in the bigs after the ASB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe? Wonder if they’d give Reed a look first?

A: Hey Eric, thanks for the chat as always! Outside of Canning, who are a few of your biggest prospects risers so far? Anyone jump into the top 100 that wasn’t there preseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley and I both have been collecting names to argue over adding to the back of the 100 due to spots vacated by graduations, injuries, etc for our next update and here’s who is on my early list:

Eric A Longenhagen: Dennis Santana, Canning, Jose Soriano, Trent Deveaux, Shane Bieber, DJ Peters, Dunning…

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s most of them off the top of my head

Seth Romero: Where am I?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still in time out

Mike M: Kiley touched on it yesterday, saying that there are Sabathia and David Wells comps. But, at 21 years old, are the Braves concerned about how… Hefty Gohara is?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s been an issue for him for years and he was held back in extended by Seattle to keep his weight under control at one point, too. He’s thrown strikes despite it, so my concerns are somewhat placated by that, but I wouldn’t cite CC and Wells as precedent for anything, both those guys are noise, not signal. Their careers were too good to lump them in with the general population.

Joe: Keith Law had Atlanta taking Nolan Gorman in the draft today. Have you heard much about that connection?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. I’d have him with Oakland right now.

Padres: Hi Eric!! Why does everyone here at FG hate on Franchy? He has elite power/speed combo and has REALLY
improved his contact ratio’s compared to 2017. (2017: O-Contact% 47.8 Z-Contact% 68.1)  (2018 O-Contact% 53.7% Z-Contact% 75.0%). Further more compare his 2018 ISO and contact ratio’s to Stanton’s: Franchy: .274ISO O-Contact% 53.7% Z-Contact% 75.0% Stanton: .240ISO O-Contact%: 49.6% Z-Contact% 73.9

Eric A Longenhagen: Dude has put 53 balls in play, none of these samples are stable.

Vander: Who are the prospects that the Reds have been most heavily scouting for pick #5? Are they interested in Kelenic?

Eric A Longenhagen: College bats and Singer

Tim: Whats the lowest Hankins and Vasil can go due to injuries? Any chance they fall to the second round?

Eric A Longenhagen: The cluster of HS pitching in rd 1 was pretty tight and injuries have moved them toward the back of the group, so yeah I think they both could slip into the comp round and maybe one of them gets to rd 2.

Rick Sanchez: Do you happen to know if anything has changed with Domingo German since you guys’ scouting report? I assume no, he still has great stuff and control over command, remains to be seen if it works as a starter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Part of the reason we think he’s just a reliever, long term, is his injury history.

Mike: It seems like every player the Tigers sign out of Latin America is a tiny SS who can really field, could be a decent contact hitter, but has no power. Yet, when it comes to the draft, I can’t recall them ever valuing a player like Madrigal or anyone like him. Is it weird that an org seems to be so different in terms of evaluating amateur players compared to players from LA? Or would you disagree on my assessment?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think you’re way off base. Obviously there has been upheaval in that front office lately so new trends might emerge, but the Tigers’ lust for hard-throwing arms in the domestic draft can’t be satisfied internationally because 16 year old kids don’t typically throw that hard, so chasing that kind of prospect in that market is largely moot.

Eric A Longenhagen: And there was a long stretch where they didn’t invest heavily in latin american prospects, save for WIlly Adames, and the bargain bin in LA is often full of the kind of players you’re describing.

Rick Sanchez: Not a question- just wanted to say thank you guys and The Board is awesome

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, you should hop on and start following this account if you’re on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FG_Prospects

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s where we’ll be posting notifications of board updates, when we’ve added players or ranked them differently, etc.

Garfield: Hey Eric, Justin Anderson has come out of nowhere at the MLB level. Seems he was a starter through most of the minors, but has there been any uptick in stuff that you’ve heard? Only four innings but the velo/whiffs are intriguing so far

Eric A Longenhagen: Was 91-94 in the 2016 AFL so no idea where this heat has come from. Different dude now.

Wisco Badger: 15 a reasonable floor for Kelenic?

Eric A Longenhagen: I bet someone pops him before that.

Omega Red: My hometown AAA team is leaving after this season and being replaced by a rookie league team. I’m kinda bummed. What are the positives I can look forward to?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think watching 17-19 year old kids fight for their livelihoods while they try to assimilate into a new culture will give you a unique perspective on baseball that most fans are oblivious to.

No, YOUR Name: For a prospect to be considered “5-tool” traditionally, what is the minimum for each tool? 55? 60? 70?

Eric A Longenhagen: 50

Shabba Ranks: Don’t name names of other writers or publications, but how often do you collaborate and share information with writers from other outlets? It’d be beneficial for writers to have as much information as possible to make readers best-informed, but that may be a little too utilitarian. You also are kind of competing with each other. If Eric Longenhagen is right on a ton of prospects, and Shabba Ranks at another outlet is wrong a lot, Fangraphs gets more clicks and Eric gets more money. We always read that you and Kiley gather notes about prospects from other people. Are these more so area scouts you know?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s mostly us seeing games on our own, scouts, executives and agents. I like Keith and Callis and consider them friends and mentors and we talk about players because we like baseball and that’s what we do, but everyone is confident in their own opinions and I can’t think of an instance where it’s clear that there was cross pollination of opinions because of it.

Vander: Is Jeter Downs anywhere close to becoming a top prospect? He seems to be doing a lot of the same things that Trammell did last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was on our 45s with helium list before the season. Really think he’s going to hit. COuld be a top 100 guy next offseason

Max: Has Jordan Groshans been linked to any teams? Would love the Rockies to snag him with their Comp pick

Eric A Longenhagen: As high as 13 (or at least with MIA, maybe not at 13) but I generally agree that’s the range he goes

Carlton, Ritz: Forgive me for a fantasy-related query: Triston McKenzie, worth stashing now for use in 2018? Or do you think he’s more of a 2019 guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d wait and see. Still haven’t seen him in extended nor been notified when or if he’s throwing so I assume he’s still hurt and is not.

Bun B: Is Micker Adolfo being slept on? Who cares about a high K rate anymore, getting to his power regularly even with a messed up elbow.

Eric A Longenhagen: Isn’t the messed up elbow itself an issue?

Pache Adames: Seeing how much some players are adding pop in the bigs, how do you generally consider guys like Pache and Adames, whose defensive acumen alone gets them to the show albeit with question marks around their offensive ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still don’t have a good answer for this question which is essentially ‘Do you adjust power projections based on what’s clearly going on with the MLB baseball?’

Dallas: Has there been any draft buzz on Brennen Davis or is he most likely going to the U?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seems like there’s actual heat on him

John S: Does Jession Rosario have any untapped power in his swing? he’s pretty damn exciting.

Eric A Longenhagen: He does

Jacob: Nolan Gorman’s body has given some people pause about where he plays. Could he possibly end up at a corner OF spotto keep up his prospect value rather than 1B?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, and I agree he’s backed up a little bit in this regard, but the chances of a team/Gorman fixing it and keeping him at third are still pretty strong.

Mertz: As of right now, about where in your top 100 (if anywhere) would you rank Peter Alonso?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably in the 100-125 range. A 50 but not on the 100.

Anon: Who is the goodest prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://csncoyotes.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=408

Jared: Any ideas why Font can’t figure out the MLB with so much success at AAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: The jump between AAA and MLB is larger than many realize. And he’s arguably a one-pitch guy.

Friar : Hey Eric, what are your thoughts on Eguy Rosario? Seems to be holding his own at Lake Elsinore for a 18 year old.

Eric A Longenhagen: maxed out frame, tools pretty average, maybe a second division regular but more likely a utility type

Jeff: Leonardo Rivas is putting up an .850 OPS in Burlington. He is an on base wizard and right now he’s slugging over .400. He is a pretty small guy will he able to add/maintain enough power to get to the big leagues? How is his glove work?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s good, maybe a 5 at short, 55/60 at 2B

Jacob: Connor Scott has had some injuries thus far. Do you think that will drop him to the 2nd round? Is there a chance that he turns into a Austin Beck / Heliot Ramos toolsy OF that could hit for 50 grade or better power?

Eric A Longenhagen: We think he fits in the 15-30 range and a lot of it is going to depend on who saw him healthy

David McJustice: Odds that Austin Meadows turns it around? Interesting buy-low, post-hype guy in your opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was watching some film of him yesterday to see where the swing is at since he made alterations throughout last season. He still has a pretty conservative approach to contact, which is fine because the power is in the hands to do damage in the gaps anyway and turn on some balls here and there. I think it works and he’ll be a productive big leaguer if healthy but he’s not rushing back up into our top 10 or anything like that.

Rock Kickass: When do you start removing the SSS from the stat lines and start to believe them?

Eric A Longenhagen: I start to become confident in minor league batted ball profiles at the 75-100 balls in play mark. Walk rate, ISO, K% probably over half a season or so.

Georgie: What are your thoughts on the hot start of the 4 position player prospects on the Charlotte Stone Crabs (Josh Lowe, Lucius Fox, Jesus Sanchez and Nate Lowe)? Just SSS or do any of their starts raise their stock in your eyes?

Eric A Longenhagen: We like all those guys already so I don’t think the needle has moved. Nate Lowe is the guy who everyone might buy late because of the defensive profile but the power is real.

Bravesy McBravesface: What’s your position on Trevor Bauer’s comments?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought they were reasonable but that it fits into a broader discussion that we’re not collectively having about the aesthetics of the game and whether they’re changing in a way that has long term consequences. I can’t speak for the average sports fan, but I don’t like watching three true outcomes baseball and it would seem what Trevor is advocating for moves us toward that kind of play environment.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I also think he makes good points and I know a lot of pitchers do use something to get a Firm Grip on the baseball and I know I would if I were a pitcher

Rockie Dangerfield: Raimel Tapia, once again laying waste the PCL, is running MiLB career highs in BB%, K%, and ISO.  What do you make of that?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s legit and wish he were up

Jake: Not a prospect anymore, but do you think *if he got a shot* Blake Swihart could be a starting-quality catcher somewhere?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just haven’t seen enough of him to have an opinion.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s really hard to get a feel for guys who barely play, it sucks.

Mark: Shed Long — I don’t have a question but want to hear more about him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Another guy who I think has an argument for inclusion on our 100 update. Has power, great makeup, plays up the middle. Lots to like.

James: Looks like Ichiro just got put out to pasture. Any thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, bleak thoughts about the inexorable passage of time and the physical/mental decay that we’re all subject to.

Mac: Which prospect not listed on THE BOARD because he has a sub-40 FV should actually be listed because of his 80 grade name?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa3002849&position=2B

JFL19: Hey Eric, thanks for the chat as always, Curious your thoughts on Dennis Santana, he seems to have quite a bit more upside than your typical sinker/slider prospect.  What are your thoughts on him?  Does he stick in the rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in. Watched him throw this spring and the changeup is there and I was blown away by his sequencing and command. He’s come a long way in the last 18 months, I was certain he’d just be a reliever.

Billy Beane: Hey Eric, I know you got a look at Jeffries and Kaprelian. Any idea when they’ll be back in games and/or where they’ll go?

Eric A Longenhagen: They each threw two innings of a sim game so I expect them to throw 3 or so in an actual game either Saturday or Monday. Probably two weeks from an affiliate assuming no setbacks.

Hoosier Daddy: Is Stiever putting himself in the conversation with Feltner and Schanuel? Fitt had him up to 96 against Illinois and the #’s look really good…

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think that’s fair since the other two are largely arm strength guys too

Jack: Is Bailey Falter a prospect? He wasn’t in the write up.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was discussed and is worth following. Was 87-90 with projectable frame when I first wrote him up in ’17, velo didn’t really come last year so maybe it’s arriving.

Roger: How large is the gap between Trevor Larnach and guys like Jenista, Pompey and Steele Walker? Which OF bat excites you the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: Larnach has huge, effortless power. I’m off Pompey. Jenista is more tooled-up than Walker but I feel better about Walker getting to his power. I’d go 45 FV on Larnach (gap) Jenista and Walker (gap) Pompey

Joe: Is Ronaldo Hernandez of the Rays in the midst of a breakout season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda thought that’s what last year was, but yeah he’s good.

Jazz Palmetieri: Thoughts/feelings/emotions on jay groome?

Eric A Longenhagen: Did something else happen I’m not aware of? I know he’s been hurt.

Kyle : Logan Allen. Mid-rotation possible?

Eric A Longenhagen: More a #4

Anon: Is player development the area where teams can still separate themselves from the rest and gain a leg up on the competition?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Sonny: Is Jalen Beeks due for a reevaluation with the new cutter? Possibly more than a 6th SP/Depth piece?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=0&po…

Waka : The Indians would be better off with Shane Bieber as their 5th starter over Josh Tomlin. Prove me wrong.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bigfoot exists. Prove me wrong.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but come up with a better way of asking questions so that they’re, ya know, answerable.

Mark: The start for Josh James has been pretty crazy. With the increased velocity, where is he now in terms of FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah velo has been up each of last three years. COuld slap a 40 on him right now

Matt: Ozzie Albies is the NL MVP thus far.  Convince me I’m wrong.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s May 3 and thinking about it at this point is dumb.

Eric A Longenhagen: Just enjoy Albies, dude.

Joe: What % chance do you give Mize going 1-1

Eric A Longenhagen: 75

Billy Beane: Billy Owens of the A’s recently said he would like to see Jorge Mateo and Kevin Merrell compete against one another in the 100 meter dash. Who would you take in this footrace?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mateo, but Merrell can fly.

Eric A Longenhagen:

Joe: Justus Sheffield to AAA. Do we see him this summer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

John: Is Bill James starting to go crazy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we all slowly start to go crazy. Ask Morrissey.

Ameer: How legit is Danny Jansen? Ever since he got glasses he hasn’t stopped hitting. Can he be Russ Martins replacement?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was on our 100

Larry: Is Brady Singer trending back up?

Eric A Longenhagen: His start against Mize was great and he’s the name we keep hearing that teams in the top 10 would run to for safety if their board blows up.

Talkin sports with the boys: Who’s the best college bat that slips to the back of the first round?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmmm, college bats don’t often slip unless they have contact issues. I guess Swaggerty could slip but not that far. Maybe Eierman

David: P Shaun Anderson at AA Richmond…building more prospect status? I’ve heard encouraging things. Seems like a good return for Nunez.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, chance to pitch toward the back of a rotation. Gregory Santos is good, too. They did pretty well in that deal.

A Dead Avenger: Eric, have you heard great reports on Eury Ramos? AZPhil mentioned he’s throwing 95-97, with a plus CB, and a swing and miss change. Says he’s filled out now. Any words you’ve heard from the back fields?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen him myself this spring but every time I’m there Phil is too so I buy that he’s throwing that hard and missing bats.

College Lefty: Top 3 college lefties for this years draft are ______

Eric A Longenhagen: McClanahan, Rolison, Bubic, though the kids at UVA (Lynch) and Hofstra have buzz. I saw Bubic like a week and a half ago and he was awful but it might have been the worst start of his career so I’m just tossing it out.

Jazz Palmetieri: Mark Shapiro wasn’t kind to Anthopoulos’s emptying of the farm before bolting back in 2015, but hasn’t history shown that it was worth it? Daniel Norri, Jairo Loubert and Matt Boyd (for David Price) and Jeff Hoffman and Miguel Castro (plus Jose Reyes, for Tulo) aren’t exactly setting the world on fire. What’s your take on those moves, a few years removed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought it was appropriate for them to go for it at the time. If you knock that era for anything it’s for not drafting well.

Yankee HAter: Are you guys still in love with me? I haven’t heard much lately and my owners are getting worried.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t understand what this is referencing.

MR: Are you an espresso guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Drip drip drip

jim: is fantasy baseball the reason jon daniels is having to answer questions about service time

Eric A Longenhagen: I hadn’t thought about that. I think it’s important people ask those questions and put execs in uncomfortable positions answering them. If we didn’t, guess what would happen?

Justin : Hey Eric, thanks for the chat! Have you heard which teams are going after Rodriguez and Gaston, in IFA  yet? Thanks in advance!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve heard noooo onnne throws like Gaston quite as fast as Gaston has an arm action with as much length as Gaston

Eric A Longenhagen: (Miami, like 800k)

Eric A Longenhagen: Rodriguez, which one? Osiel? Not sure.

Eric A Longenhagen: With that, I’m spent. Thanks for your questions again this week. I’ll be in the Northeast next week and then Milwaukee to see Kelenic, so be aware we might move chats around. See you soon.