Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/9

Eric A Longenhagen: Morning from an anomalously cool Tempe.

Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s chat will be held tight to an hour as I’ve got some games to hit today.

Eric A Longenhagen: Begin!

Jack: Is Jake Gatewood’s power here to stay now? 2015-16 were rough but seems to have tapped into that frame so far this season

Eric A Longenhagen: The power hes always been there and totally undermined by swing and miss issues.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s strijing out a lot this year, walk rate has gone from 3% to 14% which is too big of an uptick to be entirely real.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also he’s BABIPing like .480 or something like that. It’s probably too early to take on-paper performance at face value, and of course I’d tell you it generally means less than the scouting report anyway.

Mike: Thoughts on carter keiboom? Starting to display some power this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Talked to someone who saw that team recently who think Kieboom could be a star. I’ve always been lukewarm on him but it sounds like he’s truly improving.

larry: Any new draft buzz in the top 5 picks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really. Orgs all start draft meetings soon and most scouts are done with their areas at this point, so we’re just getting to the point where names and teams start to pair up a bit.

Eric A Longenhagen: All we can do right now is make talent-based judgements and those are more or less the same. McKay, Greene, Wright, Gore, Lewis

James: At this point is it valid to say Brady Aiken’s velo might never come back? His K’s are WAY down. Walks are WAY UP. But he has really good splits against LHB. Is a LHP that touches 90/91 with his curveball good enough to be a LOOGY?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve spoken with scouts who haven’t seen him crest 90. The curveball gives him a shot but yes, I think the velo would have been back by now if it were coming.

Paul: Could Kyle Wright go in the top two, or is he still behind McKay and Greene?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s an argument for it. If you don’t like either of Greene’s breaking balls or prefer Wright’s 92-95 to McKay’s 90-93, I think that’s reasonable.

Bleh: As a result of being pounded over the head by guys switching to new swings to hit the ball in the air, do you have any thoughts as far as guys who could implement it in the minors and have good results?

Off the top of my head a guy who could use more power is Alex Verdugo?

Eric A Longenhagen: Theoretically, every prospect would benefit from hitting for more power. I think it’s easier said than done to alter the swings of prospects who have been swinging a certain way for years and I’m not sure there’s a developmental playbook for implementing it just yet. I’d expect teams to experiment with fringe prospects (like clubs did with weighted balls) and see what works and what doesn’t before they start toying with guys like Verdugo, who I think is fine as is.

Monsignor Martinez: Do you think that automating the strike zone would affect catcher’s positioning behind the plate? Could this lead to fewer stolen bases?

Eric A Longenhagen: I hadn’t thought about that but it’s an interesting thought and one of several possible unintended consequences of robot umps, which I stand against.

Nickles: Is there any major leaguer you look at and can’t figure why he isn’t better? I used to think this about Juan Encarnacion. He seemed to have all the tools and was a decent enough player but I saw an unfulfilled star.

Eric A Longenhagen: Matt Moore

The Average Sports Fan: Should Moncada be up as soon as the extra year of team control is achieved?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d give Triple-A a chance to solve him.

Gentry: Is Kevin Maitan alive?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. He’s a teenager in extended spring training.

reds: Tyler Mahle looks like he’s dominating AA, what’s his updated time frame look like? any chance he comes up this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have zero idea on dates of call ups. If he debuts this year it will probably be because someone at the big league level got hurt and will miss a start on Mahle’s day to throw, not because Mahle forces the CIN’s hand.

Leo: Do balanced safer college bats like Logan Warmoth who right now project back end of first round typically rise to the teens draft day?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes.

Bert Campaneris: Is there anything to make out of the hot start by Chris DeVito? Have you seen him? What are your thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: 1B/DH-only, has 55 or better raw power but probably a bit too much swing and miss for that kind of defensive profile

Ink Stained Wretch: Michael Chavis is off to an explosive start. Have you seen any adjustments, or is he the same guy on a hot streak?

Eric A Longenhagen: No mechanical changes or anything like that as far as I’ve heard, could just be hot.

Marshall Schickles: Which team’s farm system has had the best showing so far (I.e., most prospects performing at or above expectations)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of Arizona’s talented but frustrating prospects were off to good starts, a bunch of Philly’s pitchers are throwing well, ATL and CIN kids have mostly been good, CLE has a bunch of weird arms carving guys up….

JV: Willy Adames is struggling. What do you see for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Be patient, friend. He’s 21 and at Triple-A. Same goes for Bauers.

Hank: I remember reading a lot about Austin Riley having bat speed questions. He seems to be doing well in High A after a great second half last year. Are you a believer in the bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bat speed was definitely fine last year (at least late last year when I saw him) but he projects to 1B for me and it’s really hard to profile there with an approach as aggressive as Riley’s

Ink Stained Wretch: Not rookie eligible, but do you think Oswaldo Arcia has a meaningful big league career ahead of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do but probably more in the Alcides Escobar mold than a top of the order threat.

Scotch Tape: A few Brewers prospects i’d like your thoughts on, Mario Feliciano, Jake Gatewood, and Corbin Burnes

Eric A Longenhagen: Feliciano twitchier and more athletic than the average catcher. Good chance to catch and could hit enough to play every day. Gatewood is 1B only with huge raw power but glaring K issues. Burnes is athletic, 90-94 with a chance for average or better slider, curve, change, a potential league average starter for me.

Rick: What do you know about Dan Jansen in the Blue Jays System? He didn’t make your list this year but is a prospect to note according to Mark Shapiro.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely playing well and if it continues it’s worth re-evaluating but scouts here were not on him during the AFL.

Bren: A lot is made of the challenges that come with having affiliates in offense inflated leagues like the PCL. Do teams do anything special to try and make sure that players don’t fall into bad habits, or that they’re not affected mentally, above and beyond what they might do for players in more neutral environments?

Eric A Longenhagen: They do and at times will have players skip that level entirely to avoid what you describe, and it goes the same for pitchers, too.

Lilith: Is Nick Senzel close to becoming a top 10 prospect in the game?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s probably a little aggressive for me. Just spoke with a scout who saw Senzel recently who wonders how much game power there’s going to be. He’s a great prospect but maybe not quite on that tier.

Bert Campaneris: More Royals’ questions: Samir Duenez. It feels that many were questioning his power coming into this year. In your write-up, you also alluded to the lack of power but the existence of nice contact skills. He is showing some power as we speak. Positive sign? Should we make more of that or not? Thanks for chatting, Eric. Appreciate you taking time. I always look forward to this time of the week.

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought he was using his lower half a bit better this spring so perhaps some of it is real.

Lilith: Where would you rank Greene and McKay on the top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Polishing up the draft board this week and those guys are hovering at 55/60 FVs right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, 60s would be top 20 in baseball at the moment

Eric A Longenhagen: and the 55s range from like 20-70

Mike: Trey Supak and Freddy Peralta have sported high K-rates this year. Any updated thoughts on their upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Supak is a big bodied guy, 86-90, can really pitch, locates his breaking ball well. Not much ceiling there. Peralta is interesting because, while he was a maturely built AZL prospect with Seattle, I remember a scout saying he thought he’d develop mid-90s velo with age because the arm action was good. He’s deceptive and has great breaking ball feel. I’m on Peralta more than Supak.

Tempering early helium: How much weight is fair to give early season stats? Given offseason routines/developments, it seems that increases in raw talent levels would present themselves more frequently early in the season while refinements/polish would more frequently occur later in the season. Given the “beat the level” approach to the minors, how demonstrable do ridiculous early-season performances have to be before a player is declared ready for the next step?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ve seen our first flurry of promotions and most all of them are of players who started this season at the level at which they finished 2016.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree it’s probably too early for the statline to mean anything and think it’s important to consider that teams take more than performance into account when promoting players.

Mets 🙁: How impressive is gimenez playing in A ball as an 18 year old? What’s his potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s amazing. He effectively skipped three levels. He could be a plus regular.

Shawn: What are your thoughts on Carlos Rincon? Big riser in the prospect ranks or he strikes out a tad much to be considered a legit prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: The raw power is real but yes, scouts are concerned about the K’s.

John: Has your outlook on Alex Jackson changed given the hot start?

Eric A Longenhagen: A bit, sure. He’s hitting (which he hasn’t really done since high school) but I can’t find anyone who thinks he’s going to catch. I suppose it’s still a little early to close the book on that (as an evaluator I mean, the Braves should leave him there as long as possible) but I think eventually we’ll have to ask ourselves if the bat profiles in an OF corner or first base.

Sam: Conforto hit at every level of the minors and has always shown elite batted ball profiles. Is there a reason why he never showed higher than bottom of top 100 prospect lists even as an advanced hitter coming out of college. Were the scouting profiles just that down on his fielding prior to him proving he could be average to plus in the corner in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know I was worried he’d be a bad OF defender and thought there was a chance he’d need to go to first. I was wrong.

Tommy Tutone: From a dynasty stand point, would you rather have Juan Soto or Leody Taveras?

Eric A Longenhagen: Leodys.

John: How do you talk about these prospects like you’ve scouted them when you went PG AA and two days of Area Codes??

Eric A Longenhagen: Four days of AC, John. I wouldn’t dare rob myself of extra lunches at Seoul Mate. Also, I’ve been out to see guys this spring and am on the phone a lot. Pretty standard.

Henry Jones, Jr.: How worried are you about Beck not facing top competition? Seems like a guy with his toosl probably would’ve done at least alright.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not worried about Beck, just less sure about him than I am about, say, someone like Royce Lewis. Because we’ve seen Lewis against elite peers and he’s succeeded.

seth: Tony Santillan–enigma? or real deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: The former, but that slider is vicious.

Brandon M: Is Garrett Mitchell around for the Rangers at 26 or 29? If he is, do you think they will grab him? He seems like the kind of prospect Texas loves

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he might be around (Mitchell is diabetic and it’s clouding his stock) but not sure if Texas is on him. I really like him. Plus bat speed, 7 runner, plays CF for me. GB-heavy swing.

Justino: When is the last time you recall someone being promoted so aggressively as Magneuris Sierra (and do you think it was a good decision/will help development)? A+ straight to the bigs doesn’t happen all that often.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah that promotion was a surprise. Sierra can really play CF but I can’t see him doing much with the bat right now. And other than relievers and Rule 5 guys I can’t think of a prospect who has made this kind of jump off the to of my head.

Jack: Does Khalil Lee’s ability to draw walks at a crazy rate make you feel any better about his swing and miss problems? The power seems real and he has tools, but obviously k-rate is the number to watch with him right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: It does, he has a great idea of the zone.

Colin: Have you seen Mike Shawaryn? He was very good at Maryland then stumbled a bit. His numbers now look strong.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have. Stuff is a bit better than it was when things unraveled at Maryland. Low-90s, chance for a viable slider and change. The low slot has some remaining skeptical, so keep an eye on his splits. I think he has a shot to be a back end starter.

Eric A Longenhagen:

Rebuild mode: Any pitchers flying up your top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably have to consider some of the Phillies young arms at this point. Tyler Mahle is throwing a bit harder so he might be a on the list now. Jack Flaherty also making an argument for mid-season inclusion.

George Green: You buying Kyle Tucker’s increase in power? More fly balls, higher K rate- it looks like he’s changed his approach just from looking at the numbers

Eric A Longenhagen: He has the frame to add power. Don’t have reports on whether or not the raw has ticked up but even if what you’re seeing now isn’t a true improvement I anticipate, eventually, there will be some.

J: How has the early season performance of Guerrero, Bichette, and Alford changed your opinion of their long term outlook?

Eric A Longenhagen: Vlad and Alford, not really. I’ve always liked both of them. Bichette I’ve been skeptical about but early reports from scouts are that he just has incredible feel to hit, noisy swing be damned.

bl27: I will be on the road this summer (From Montreal to Florida). Best prospect to watch in Pennsylvania or Virginia ?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d stop at Triple-A Lehigh Valley (eat in Bethlehem, not Allentown) and at Wilmington.

Gypsy Father: There are dozens of 89-93, makings of a breaking ball H.S. RHP every year. What is the best single differentiator to look for? Changeup? Body type? Smoothness?

Eric A Longenhagen: Physical projection and breaking ball feel

JB: Do you like Sandro Fabian? Certain other sources of repute seem to be quite high on him

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a Sandro Fabian hipster

Kurt: In a fantasy baseball league with prospects. Love high upside players. Thoughts on Walker Buehlers start this year? Higher upside between Buehler and Duplantier

Eric A Longenhagen: Spoke with someone who saw Buehler last week before he was promoted. sat 96-99, hammer curveball. Buehler has more upside.

Terry’s Sarape: What’s the lowest grade you’ve ever assigned to a player? Which player and what skill?

Eric A Longenhagen: I put 20s on runners on a daily basis.

Anthony: Do scouts differentiate between fastball command and offspeed command? Any examples of prospects who may have one but not the other?

Eric A Longenhagen: If there’s a huge difference (like there can be for a pitcher like Lance McCullers) then yes but it’s not something you see on every report. Some orgs grade fastball command as its own thing.

Joe Morgan: What do you make of Ronald Acuna’s promotion to AA? Seems aggressive given his 31.7 K% and 6.3 BB% in limited action at A+.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah but the other aggressive assignments Atlanta has doled out have gone pretty well so, maybe let’s just wait and see what happens. Acuna has been red hot, like .333/.380 over the last couple of weeks I think?

Nick: I’ve seen lots of talk about Hunter Greene’s secondary pitches lately. Are they any better or worse than those of other recent prep RHP like Kolek & Pint?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both Kolek and Pint had better primary breaking balls than Greene does but they can’t touch Greene’s command projection.

Rum of the Mill.: Hey Eric. Question trade question. 14tm5x5. My Calhoun + Yonder for his Cargo + TShaw (or maybe KKier/ Moreland/ Capps)? Position neutral. Love Yonder, but it’s Cargo. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is all greek to me.

Anthony: Your choice only (not necessarily industry consensus): do you take Wright or McKay if you want a college pitcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been stewing over this in my quietest moments for the last three days. I still don’t know. I love McKay’s command, think Wright has better stuff.

johnny5alive: Walker Buehler already got bumped up a level, do we see him this season, and is he bullpen arm if that happens?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think both yes.

EJ: The draft is one month away. What are teams doing right now to prepare? Are they still compiling information, or are they mostly finished with that stage?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cross checkers are out with area scouts tightening up evaluations, medical info is being gathered in prep for org meetings.

Joel: Is Jesus Sanchez going to be the biggest pop-up on mid-season prospect lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably on the short list of guys who move way up. He was on my top 100 honorable mentions but might be up around 50 on mid season lists.

Sammy: Anything on Jordan Humphreys? Over slot 20 y/o who’s 6-0 with 1.63 Era in SAL with 10+k/9

Eric A Longenhagen: Mira: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-59/

Eric A Longenhagen: And with that, I shall depart for my morning game in Scottsdale. See you here next week, same chat time, same chat station.