Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/14 by Eric Longenhagen June 14, 2018 2:02 Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, everyone. Good morning from Tempe. 2:02 Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s our recently updated top overall prospects list: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/ 2:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Not much else to link to as everything had been building up to the draft and that update, so now we have more irons in the fire than we do stuff to plug. 2:04 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna chat longer than usual this week because I bailed on last week’s chat, so without further adieu.. 2:04 Joe: Thoughts on the Brewers draft haul? 2:07 Eric A Longenhagen: I liked it. I’m not the biggest Joe Gray fan because I saw him swing and miss against good pitching a lot throughout his amateur career, but he’s been a known guy for a long time and you could argue we nitpitcked him to death. At worst he has a traditional power/projection right field profile, which is a fine thing to draft in the second round, and Gray has a better chance to stay in CF than most prospects like that because his feel out there is good and might enable him to stay there even if he slows down. 2:07 Eric A Longenhagen: I also really like Bello and Ashby. 2:07 Paul: Can you expand on that Brett Cumberland jump? 2:09 Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley saw him, thought the defense had improved, we each checked with people who had seen him and got general agreement. We both think he’s going to hit and if you fold a stronger likelihood that he’ll catch into the profile, it’s much, much stronger. We also have a lot of catchers with good bats toward the back of the 50 FV section and he fits with those guys. 2:09 Mike: What did you think of the Simeon Woods-Richardson pick? 2:12 Eric A Longenhagen: I like him. We had him ranked at 100 on our board. He went 48th. That makes it look like a reach (or at least like we might call it one) but we had a 40 on Simi and a 40+ on the guy ranked 48th, so pretty marginal difference. 2:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Woods-Richardson is a good athlete, two-way guy with power, low to mid-90s, good secondary stuff. He’s young for the class but not as physically projectable as most 17-year-old draftees so I don’t know that I’d give him the same age-related bump as we do other prospects. 2:13 Joe: Been seeing a lot of love lately for Oneil Cruz. Odds of sticking at short? Will the bat play anywhere? 2:15 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s performing better than last year but looks the same from a scouting perspective, which is to say he’s physically remarkable and very talented but still looks really awkward at times. 2:16 Eric A Longenhagen: If he stays at short it would be historic, he’s listed at 6-6- but someone with LAD told me they measured him at 6-8 when he arrived for his final spring with LA before he was traded. I can’t see that playing at shortstop. I’ve seen Cruz play third and thought he was playable there but that he’d eventually move to RF. He’s one of the weirded prospects in baseball 2:16 Judge: Who has the best raw power in MiLB. 2:17 Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=1&po… 2:18 JD: Is there reason to fear that Michel Baez’s dropoff has been something more than just injury hangover? 2:20 Eric A Longenhagen: One of those situations that could go either way. Look at Giolito. Sometimes the velo just goes away. That’s not to say Baez suddenly has concerning velo issues, it’s just not as hard as it was last year and has been like that for a while now, so he has to move down. 2:21 Mark: Do you think Neidert’s fastball will play up enough to make the package work as a starter? I know Hendricks is the usual comp, but would Hendricks’s fastball be graded at 40, as you have Neidert’s? 2:23 Eric A Longenhagen: I think Neidert does enough other stuff that he gets by with a 4 fastball. Hendricks had a 4 fastball when he was sitting 87-89, he’s not throwing that hard right now. 2:24 Al : Surprised Tirso didn’t make your updates list. Is defense the main thing holding him back? What’s his offensive upside? 2:26 Eric A Longenhagen: You’d have to think he’s a 7 bat to have him grouped with the 50s or better. And I don’t think that’s crazy. It’s an aggressive, optimistic projection, but not crazy. I think he fits in with the 45 FV 1B/corner OF prospects pretty comfortably. Aren’t many corner-only teenagers we have 45s or better on, Tirso has strong placement among his peers in our eyes. 2:26 Mark: How do you consider projecting a player who could make a change that would unlock talent vs. the typical projection of talent growth? Yandy Diaz being the poster child for this example. As an evaluator, are you forced to grade on Yandy with today’s swing, and note the upside of a possible swing adjustment, or is a possible change built into his FV grade? Is there a likelihood of change factor involved? 2:27 Eric A Longenhagen: This is a great question and one I ask myself and struggle with. Here are all the ways I’ve considered reconciling this issue: 2:28 Eric A Longenhagen: 1. Evaluate the player as-is (Yandy Diaz is a 40, a corner platoon bat or utility man with a good approach but not enough game power to start anywhere he fits on defense, because of his swing path) 2:29 Eric A Longenhagen: 2. Project on the player making mechanical adjustments (Diaz is a 50. Plus raw power, plus plate discipline at third base, he’d fit in with guys like Brian Anderson and Colin Moran who we think are 2-3 WAR guys during their peak) 2:30 Eric A Longenhagen: 3. Project on Diaz’s swing changing if he’s with an org we feel confident knows how to make these changes (40 or 50 depending on org) 2:31 Eric A Longenhagen: I think the best way to do it is the first one (which is what we currently do while trying not to let 3 creep into our evals) while writing about the possibility of a change in the report. 2:31 Eric A Longenhagen: But that means you better be quick to update the eval if a player does make a change, which turns discussion to: :How do we know the player has made a change as fast as possible? 2:32 Eric A Longenhagen: But that’s another episode 2:32 Mark: Chris Paddack was a big mover in the updated rankings. Has his stuff returned to where it was pre-injury and it’s all a matter of staying healthy, or has he looked even better? 2:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Was 90-94 t97 with a 7 changeup for me in extended and he pounds the strike zone. 2:32 Bill: Any thoughts on Dylan Covey’s six starts so far? His velocity is up a couple of ticks and he’s been a groundball machine. Seems to have more movement on his 2 seamer this year as well. Can he be a legitimately good pitcher now? 2:33 Eric A Longenhagen: He looks good, thought he was a 40 as a prospect (5th starter or reliever), maybe he’s a 45 now? 2:33 James: In the lower minors, what is the approximate ratio of legit prospects to organizational filler? How often does organizational filler succeed? 2:35 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think the classifications are binary. Let’s say, post-draft, an MLB club has 3 rookie-ball rosters. Out of those 75 players, 3-6 of them are probably very good prospects, another 12-18 of them are probably interesting, maybe another handful have one impact tool and little else, the rest are org guys. 2:37 Brian: Where does Weathers fit in the padres top 30 prospects? Is his ceiling a #3? higher? lower? 2:38 Eric A Longenhagen: He was a 45 FV on our draft board, which slots him into that tier on the Padres list: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=0&po… 2:39 Eric A Longenhagen: And obviously that’s getting an update soon, including a spot for Weathers, but you can get a general idea now that he’s in the 10-20 range. 2:40 Shawn: Have you heard any reports on Carlos Morfa in the DSL? 2:41 Eric A Longenhagen: Not from the DSL (season is about a week old, and I’d caution against taking much from DSL stats) but as an amateur. Big, physical kid, mature build. He’s probably bigger and stronger than 95% of the players down there right now. 2:41 John: Is Miguel Amaya climbing up lists? The stats look awesome and he is really young for his level 2:42 Eric A Longenhagen: Was 9th on the Cubs list this offseason. Have him shaded up to a 45 FV right now so, yes but I’ve been smitten with him for a while now so quite glad he’s playing well. https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=0&po… 2:43 Rick Souddress: Adell’s current blistering streak coupled with the annual Injury Festival at the major league level possibly might see a promotion to AA sooner than we thought. Given Eppler’s already aggressiveness with promoting prospects, is Adell possibly in line to lose his rookie status in 2019? 2:43 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be very surprised if that happened 2:43 Jonathan: Two IFAs that you guys have mentioned a lot are Kristian Robinson (45+ on the preseason BOARD) and Trent Deveaux (40+ on the preseason BOARD). It sounds like scouts have been excited by what they’ve seen so far this year in extended spring training. How much separation is there between them at this point, in your opinion? 2:45 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been excited by what I’ve seen from each of them, though Deveaux’s swing has recently changed (I don’t know why) and he’s not comfortable with it yet so he’s kind of in a holding pattern for me. Still think they’re separated by about a half grade. 2:45 Jim Lahey: do you have concerns about Jesus Sanchez’s BB rate? or is the fact that hes making contact and showing power make up for it? 2:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Some concern, sure. I’d rather a player be patient and have a discerning eye than not. But he does enough other stuff that we still think he’s going to be a good big leaguer. 2:48 BIll: Is Sandy Alcantara someone who can make an impact once he gets called up and when do you see him getting called up 2:50 Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s going to take him some time to dial in a breaking ball again. Hasn’t been right since it was screwed with last year. Not sure when they might add him, I assume it’d be based on need if they did. Certainly he’ll be up at some point and he’ll throw really hard, frustrate everyone with command and consistency issues. 2:50 Pio: Chances that Tatis is up for a cup of coffee this year? Chances that he’s up for more? 2:51 Eric A Longenhagen: I guess there’s a small chance but it’s not really relevant as far as the Padres season or the player’s evaluation are concerned, so it’s not something I think about or pursue information regarding. 2:51 Bo Bichette: Will I see the big leagues this year and if so when do you think it will happen? 2:53 Eric A Longenhagen: Same answer as previous question. And I’d add call-ups are so dependent on several variables that have nothing to do with the prospect in question that they’re not worth predicting or speculating on. 2:53 E: Adam Haseley is riding a 31 game on base streak. How close was he to getting a bump to 50 FV? 2:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Not especially close 2:54 Pio: Given his IsoP rise and general bat-to-ball skills, could Urias see a power surge when he gets up to the majors? 2:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, as with Albies and everyone else who can square it up. 2:54 Trent Deveaux: When am I going to start playing actual games 2:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Monday 2:55 Fred: Do you see Loaisiga as a starter long-term? 2:57 Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. Lots pointing toward eventual pen role. Injury history, delivery, changeup consistency (though it flashes). I like him though. Saw him last month on an amateur run in the northeast. 93-97, plus slider, change is actually a nasty, sinking power change when he’s getting it down and in to righties. He has bat-missing stuff, but if you think Domingo German has a wonky arm action, wait til you see Loaisiga. 2:57 Eric A Longenhagen: LOL, I’m an idiot, you can just see it now: 2:58 Eric A Longenhagen: This was a 10am start in Trenton last month 2:58 Rob: What is Brandon Marsh’s offensive upside? Who has the better bat between him, Jo Adell and Taylor Trammel? 2:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Think he could be plus hit, avg power or something like that. Marsh is the best pure hitter of that group, Adell has the most power, Trammell has the most mature approach of the three. 3:01 salmon: How would you rank NCAA conferences in terms of talent? Curious where you think the AAC falls. 3:03 Eric A Longenhagen: If I were 20-80’ing conferences (SEC is an 80, PAC12 is a 60, Big Ten is a 45, you get the idea) AAC is a 55 3:04 Andy: Although the farm is pretty depleted, it was nice seeing 3 Mets guys on the top 31 (Alonso, Kelenic, Gimenez). If by some chance they trade one of Degrom/Thor and get a Sale like haul for them, combined with a probable 2019 top 10 pick… does this move the system back into the top half of the league? Or is it still just not deep enough? 3:05 Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know if I’d advocate for a full scale rebuild, but I think you can move a couple premium guys and have a great-looking system pretty quickly. Especially if Mauricio and others like him develop. 3:06 Slurp: Has kristian Robinson started playing yet? 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: AZL starts Modnay. http://www.milb.com/milb/schedule/index.jsp?sid=milb&leagues=l121 3:06 Steven Duggar: I’ve started to perform better recently at AAA. What do you think my realistic future role is? (Yes I know I’m a 45 in Giants prospects lists, but has that changed at all this year?) 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Avg everyday player 3:06 Johnny Coconuts: Have you seen any instances of a prospect changing bat length/weight to yield a significant result? 3:07 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a good question but length/weight is not info I have for any bat except for my own. 3:08 AZL: What AZL games will be played in Stadiums this year? Padres, sometimes Cubs were a constant last year, any idea? 3:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Kind of a mess this year, actually. We have 18 teams now and multiple clubs have two teams, so some are playing in the stadium some nights and not on others. 3:09 Eric A Longenhagen: Also, Brewers stadium construction pushes them out of there and onto the backfields. 3:09 Eric A Longenhagen: ANd starting 45min later than everyone else 3:09 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s gonna be a weird year 3:10 Coppy: Who is someone you haven’t mentioned in prospects week that has made the biggest jumps in value? Or, any 40 FV guys make the jump to 45 FV recently? 3:11 Eric A Longenhagen: We’re working on updating org lists between now and the trade deadline. Early guys I’m pushing to move up based on my looks and talking to scouts so far this season include: 3:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Thomas Jones, Jose Devers, Ranger Suarez, Spencer Howard, Oscar Mercado, Kevin kramer, Oneil Cruz, Stu Fairchild 3:13 Isan Diaz: I’ve started to break out at AA over the past couple of weeks. After slumping for a while, is this sustainable or just a flash in the pan? what’s my realistic future projection at this point? 3:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Still think you’re a 50 or 55. MIF with power, patience. Didn’t really move you on our updated 131, just moved Shed Long past you because he’s performed more consistently than you have. 3:14 Tyler Kolek: What’s up with me? Am I ever going to pitch a full season at any level? 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: You have a shoulder thing now so I have no idea 3:15 Jason: How close was Jon Hernandez to sneaking in the list? Do you have an updated scouting report on him? 3:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Still pretty much what we had on Rangers list. Stuff is great, has thrown more strikes this year but I didn’t notice significantly better command when I saw him this spring. 3:18 Florida Man: How legit is Hiura’s bat? 3:19 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s legit. It has mass, uncompromised physical structure. 3:20 Ben: Hi Eric, this is anecdotal but noticed a lot of Puerto Rico players selected rounds 8 and beyond. Were players from there more interested in signing and targeted more due to the difficult recovery? 3:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I noticed the volume of players was up this year, too. We have very little on this year’s crop of high schoolers from Puerto Rico, to be quite honest. A lot of the scouts there are part time or have other jobs in their respective orgs and already have weird lives/schedules that were further complicated by the storms. I’d like to think MLB didn’t inadvertently take advantage of prospects’ living situations after a natural disaster and insufficient governmental response to it, but I just don’t know. 3:24 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m glad there’s a lot of baseball talent coming from Puerto RIco, though. 3:25 Eric A Longenhagen: I was one of the people worried forcing them to be in the draft would hurt the level of talent we saw coming out of there. Hasn’t been the case. 3:25 Mark: Dean Kremer – could he move quickly through the system? Is there a anything worth getting excited by his K%-BB%? 3:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Checked on Kremer last week. Low-to-mid-90s, plus curveball. Probably a reliever, but a big leaguer. 3:25 Nick Burdi: Am I a frontline closer if I can stay healthy? 3:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes 3:25 Eric A Longenhagen: so is you brother 3:26 DJ: Ryan McKenna is 21, plays CF, and has a 182 wRC+ in the Carolina League. At what point does he deserve some love from top prospect lists? Thanks! 3:27 Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely moving up, but into the 40/45 range right now. 3:27 Rick Souddress: Is David Fletcher going to surprise people with his pop at the highest level or are his 25 doubles a Salt Lake mirage? 3:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Has always been a 40 raw/30 game guy for me and I think yo’re right to question output at Salt Lake because it’s the PCL and the ball flies, but it also flies in the big leagues right now, so maybe he outperforms what I think of the power. 3:29 Connor: What type of prospect coverage do you have coming down the chute? Timeframe? 3:30 Eric A Longenhagen: Once short-season stuff starts back up I’ll resume more regular updates similar to last year’s daily prospect notes. We’ll have org lists updated on the board in the coming weeks and we’ll both be on the road for Futures Game, summer showcase stuff, pro coverage, etc. 3:30 DJ: When FG determines it’s top 100 (or 131) does it use a different methodology than other sites, like BA, Pipeline, etc.? I ask just because as an O’s fan I see guys like Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle well inside their top-100s but neither can even break your top-131. Hays in particular seems like he is being penalized for shoulder and ankle injuries that have bothered him since ST. 3:33 Eric A Longenhagen: I just think we weigh the approach issues those two have more heavily than other outlets. We view each of those guys as corner bats with over-aggressive approaches and would rather have corner guys with patience/power, which is why you see guys like Zack Collins toward the back of the 100 and not Mountcastle. I think it’s fine that this difference exists, it clearly does in the big leagues (just look up and down Baltimore’s roster, it’s full of guys like this who hit for power and don’t walk) 3:34 Sergio Q: What are the odds that Austin Allen stays at catcher? 3:34 Eric A Longenhagen: We don’t think he does. 3:35 Slothrop: Why do some really young guys who havent proven themselves in pro ball at all (like Cesar Izturis Jr) get to go straight to triple-A? 3:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Competence in a system short on warm bodies 3:35 MY FIELD OF DREAMS: Hey Eric, always appreciate the work. In terms of looking at the Nationals way of pushing prospects quick to the majors. Do you see the Nationals doing this just in part because Robles last year and Soto this year are just so physically ready? I ask this because Carter Kieboom has been great this year. Do you see that Nationals doing the same with him or were the call ups of Soto and Robles just outliers for them as they are just physically ready? Thanks again! 3:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Soto is an outlier and so were the rash of injuries that forced his promotion 3:36 Slothrop: Do you count having a couple former pro athletes in the family as part of some guys’ “makeup”? 3:37 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah. Makeup is just ‘work ethic’ for me. It’s definition is different, person-to-person, in baseball but for me it’s just about if the player works hard. 3:37 The KHole in Calhoun’s bat: What are the chances Angels can sign Isaish Campbell and/or Chandler Champlain? Seems like a waste of a pick if they never had a chance of signing them 3:39 Eric A Longenhagen: If you don’t have roster spots to fill on your rookie-level affiliates, you can take a flier on someone like that in case something weird happens where they become signable. Don’t think it’s a waste if nobody else on the board does anything for you. 3:40 Dan: Any idea what Telmito Agustin’s injury is and when he might be back? Do you see an MLB regular there? Thanks. 3:41 Eric A Longenhagen: Actually not sure what the injury is. He’ll be a 40 FV on the updated Nats list. He’s gotten much bigger and stronger, is a little stiff now, swing still pretty flat-planed but it’s better now than it was when I first saw him. 3:41 LioneeR: What team had your favorite draft haul? 3:42 Eric A Longenhagen: CLE, KC, LAA, TEX 3:43 John S: Where would Kyler Murray have been selected if he wasn’t drafted by the A’s at 9? 3:43 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess comp round but really don’t know 3:43 Matt: Do you know of any organizations that employ some sort of mindfulness training or meditation at the minor league or major league level? I know some NFL organizations have done it and it seems like it could potentially be useful. 3:44 Eric A Longenhagen: I know some teams have folded mental skills training into their programs but don’t know if those two specific methods are part of it. 3:44 Moltar: Where about would Dom Smith rank on the 131 if he hadn’t exhausted eligibility? How far has his star fallen? 3:44 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a still a 50 for me 3:44 Mark: Any RP prospects in the Jordan Hicks/Tanner Scott mold that you are particularly bullish on? 3:47 Eric A Longenhagen: We’ve considered coding SP and RP differently on the board so this can be searchable but there are obvious problems with projecting guys there who are still starting and being wrong about it. The other pure relief 45 FVs or better I know we’ve got are: Seranthony, AJ Minter, Zack Burdi, Tanner Rainey, Freddy Peralta 3:48 Eric A Longenhagen: I have a bunch of other guys I think will be relievers but aren’t right now, including a bunch of 50s (like Albert Abreu, I think, is still a 50 even in the bullpen because his stuff is so crazy) 3:48 Eric A Longenhagen: Hans Crouse, Frankie Kilome, Touki, Ryan Helsely, guys like that 3:48 John S: Do you think we will see Anderson Espinoza pitch at all this year? 3:49 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess most of his action comes during instructs or Fall League 3:49 Wes: What are your thoughts on the Royals college pitcher heavy draft? Do you think the guys they picked helps their rebuild timeline at all? 3:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Just think they were all good value where they took them. Not sexy at all, but all were good value, especially the Florida arms. 3:50 Go Twins: On The Board can you explain when it has two grades (like 40/45) for a category like Hit. Do the numbers represent present and future grades? 3:50 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes 3:50 Mark: Of your FV 50 tier, which players can you envision jumping into the FV 60+ tiers in the future? 3:52 Eric A Longenhagen: The power/speed teenage OFs like Heliot, Florial, Matias 3:52 Giants Fan: I’m assuming Heliot Ramos’ move from HM to 89 was more due to promotions than his performance at Low-A, which has been pretty mediocre (at best). 3:53 Eric A Longenhagen: Right, but he’s a raw teen they pushed to full-season ball aggressively so I wouldn’t be discouraged by his performance. 3:53 Bees?: Why no Calvin Mitchell on the updated list? 3:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely moving up, but all the way up into the best group of guys? Not yet. 3:55 Josh: Although you and Kiley have Adolfo in your top 131, you don’t have Basabe yet he plays CF and is outperforming Adolfo by about 100 points in OPS. Is Basabe close to that top 131? 4:03 Eric A Longenhagen: (From cell phone) Hey, having internet trouble right now… 4:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Are we back? 4:05 Eric A Longenhagen: Looks that way, alright… 4:05 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a good question. They are the same age, at the same level, one is hitting better than the other and plays a better position. This is where the subjectivity part of the eval comes in: we just aren’t as confident in Basabe’s bat. 4:05 Theres Holes in My Sox: You guys bumped Mackenzie Gore up to a 60FV. Obviously he’s been limited in getting on the field because of blisters…what did you see that convinced you? 4:06 Eric A Longenhagen: 93-96, a bunch of 55 and 60 secondaries and 6 command 4:06 Jeb: Ryder Green sounds like an exciting, toolsy player. Is the main knock that he needs to further develop his hit tool? 4:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Yep 4:06 Hattori Hanzo: Can you elaborate on why Chavis’ suspension dropped his FV for you guys? Is it because it calls into question the validity of his past performance, a loss of reps? Both? Other? Thanks 4:07 Eric A Longenhagen: I now question the validity of the power 4:07 Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Who do you like better, Corbin Martin or Cionel Perez? 4:08 Eric A Longenhagen: They’re very close, still think I’m on Cionel but the gap is much smaller than it was entering the year 4:08 JD: If you had to pick one guy who, in your opinion, will make the biggest jump from the just-released mid-season prospect list to the 2019 preseason top prospect list, who would it be? 4:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Already sort of answered it’s the group of toolsy OFs, but will add I think Kebryan Hayes is a dark horse for that 4:10 Jack: Thoughts on the Vandy Whistler? 4:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Jill made me turn off the game because it was so annoying. 4:11 Eric A Longenhagen: From Jill just now “They suck, should be booed” 4:11 Eric A Longenhagen: We’re from the Philly area, in case anyone was wondering 4:11 Correan WAR: Come October, what is Forrest Whitley doing? 4:12 Eric A Longenhagen: Either pitching in Fall League or on a playoff mound 4:12 @Thebasepaul: 1. Why are the flaws in Nick Plummers swing from HS not addressed yet? 2. What are your specific concerns… concerning Yoan Moncada. 4:12 Eric A Longenhagen: 1. Tons of missed reps due to injury and was already behind due to geographic demo 2. Bat control, twinkies 4:13 Mike: Franklin Barreto is hitting .232 with ongoing strikeout issues. What puts him right next to Hiura and Urias? 4:14 Eric A Longenhagen: We think he hits for power and plays up the middle 4:14 Loaisiga: A little surprised to not see him in the top 131. Is it just not enough pitching, b/c the stuff seems there to be at least FV 55 4:14 Eric A Longenhagen: relief risk/injuries 4:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s when I first wrote about him, has more details on the injury history, which is long: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-829-8… 4:15 Mertz: Is Amed Rosario starting to become a bust? Offense is terrible, but defense appears to be poor as well. 4:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Gonna sit on the Mets series in AZ this weekend to see wtf is up with a guy I thought was a slam dunk top 5 prospect in baseball 18 months ago 4:16 Trevon: Will the draft section of the board be sortable by team that drafted the player? 4:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, not sure if we’re going to work back on past drafts but you can sort by it for this year’s right now 4:17 Oyster Burns: You gonna buy a pizza rats hat? I bought two, and I hate Staten Island 4:18 Eric A Longenhagen: I want a cucuys hat and one of the teal marlins throwbacks 4:18 prospects: which current MLB prospect is the most likely to take the Muncy-train to relevance? 4:18 Eric A Longenhagen: No idea 4:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Btw, on the Muncy stuff…. 4:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Eric Longenhagen @longenhagen Muncy lower half tweaks 14 Jun 2018 4:20 Robb Nen’s labrum : Still expecting Luciano to the Giants? How high are you guys on him? 4:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, inadvertent edible high 4:21 Gest : Is there a correlation between splitters and straight fastballs? Totally anecdotal but it seems like many guys who throw a splitter have “straight fastball” as a criticism. (Mize, Ohtani, Eovaldi, Tanaka, Bailey’s FB seems pretty straight) 4:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Had not thought about this, an interesting question. You can probably look at horiz/vert movement for guys with splits and see if it deviates from the rest of the population in a significant way 4:22 Gest : It appears the Reds have a hankering for fresh-armed pitchers. What do you think of this preference/strategy? 4:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Also a good question, they’re heavy in NJ/NE with some of these mid day 2 kids, right? 4:22 Craig: Will Zac Gallen or Enyel De Los santos have rotation spots by the end of the year? 4:23 Eric A Longenhagen: Strong possibility. Gallen by default, EDL if they want to evaluate him against Pivetta and these other guys on the frigne of their long term rotaiton 4:23 Spicy Boy: You wrote that Jackson kowars fastball plays down because of a short stride. How much does it play down and how fixable of an issue is this? His k and bb rates in college seem mediocre 4:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Same reason we have concerns about Faedo’s fastball efficacy. You can calculate it exactly if you have a trackman. Just visually, I’d say Kowar loses a tick, tick and a half maybe, of perceived velo based on poor extension. Probably means the fastball plays closer to average than plus. 4:25 The Ghost of Christmas Past: Ghosts are spooky, huh? 4:25 Scooby Doo: Ruh Roh 4:26 Sean: Why no love for SP Josh James from Houston. He is killing it and not in the top 130. What gives? Stats don’t lie. 4:27 Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff continues to climb, and maybe it’s so good he’s a 50 FV reliever, but still think he’s more of a 45. 4:28 Kyle: how close were Jose Suarez, Jose Soriano, and Trent Deveaux to making the top 131? figured I’d see all of them, surprised to see none 4:28 Eric A Longenhagen: All 45s right now 4:28 Bernie: I never understood how a player can go from a 10-15 HR pace in the high minors to a 25-30 HR as a rookie in the Majors. Is it easier to hit for power in the Majors? 4:29 Eric A Longenhagen: It seems that way, yes. The ball, itself, is playing differently 4:29 54: Do you get exhausted by fans imploring you to affirm the upside of their favorite team’s prospects? Do you ever feel like grabbing dudes by the ears and being like MY PROGNOSTICATION IS AS OBJECTIVE AS POSSIBLE AND IN NO WAY WILL DETERMINE IF YOUR GUY ULTIMATELY SUCCEEDS OR FAILS IN THE SHOW YOU INSECURE WORRY WART 4:31 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve realized the way people consume baseball varies significantly, person to person, and I try to remember that when I get frustrated by stuff like that because it’s ultimately all meaningless. 4:31 Jeff: Have you followed Kingery’s performance in the bigs at all? Seems like his approach is a bit out of whack 4:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, think he’ll be fine but wish they’d stop trying to shoehorn him on the left side of the infield. 4:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Philly’s defensive alignment is pretty cavalier, if you ask me. 4:31 Babe Lincoln: Do you consult with Carson on FF at all? 4:32 Eric A Longenhagen: He sometimes throws names at me late on Thursday to see if I can get some info on them before it goes to press. 4:32 Trevor: Thomas Jones or Bubba Thompson? 4:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Bubba 4:32 Jim: Is there a bonus limit on undrafted players? Do undrafted players count against the bonus pool? 4:33 Eric A Longenhagen: They’re still subject to the bonus pool. Reporting on the TJ Friedl situation has details on that stuff. 4:33 Oliver: If you were the Phillies what package of prospects would you offer for Machado? 4:33 Eric A Longenhagen: You’d be smart to take away my keys on that one 4:34 J: Is Alexander Canario injured or did the Giants just not think he was ready for short season A? 4:34 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s 17 and they have 2 AZL squads, so slam dunk he’s here for the summer 4:34 All Cats Are Beautiful: I knew a guy who got drafted out of high school and developed a drinking problem in the minor leagues. He made it sound like it was a frat house atmosphere in the early 2000s. Is it still that way? 4:35 Eric A Longenhagen: Social cliques develop the same way they do anywhere dozens of people are grouped together and, because of the age of those people, yeah it can get rowdy. 4:35 Nick: Elijah Cabell, what’s going on? Let go from LSU. Likelier to sign now? How much would that enhance the view of the Brewers draft? 4:35 Eric A Longenhagen: I have no idea what’s going on with this situation. Cabell’s a clear candidate for a JUCO because of his age anyway. 4:36 Tommy: Is Brad Hand worth Triston McKenzie + Nolan Jones? Assuming CLE is still having bullpen issues by the deadline. 4:36 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s rich for me 4:36 Slothrop: Wish you still had time to write the longform scouting reports because the Monte Harrison report you made this past go around is probably my favorite thing written on this site 4:37 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, those days are probably over. But thanks 4:37 Flex: Hear anything specific regarding Jose Albertos’ struggles? 4:37 Eric A Longenhagen: Has been back here in AZ for a few starts. Fastball control is scattershot, velo varying wildly within starts. Kind of a mess right now. 4:38 Moltar: How long can you chat before your ass is in the jackpot? 4:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Two hours and thirty eight minutes 4:38 Sean: What do you have against SP Josh James from Houston. He is dominant right now in AAA. 4:39 Eric A Longenhagen: I think his sense of humor is gauche 4:41 Greg : I did a random search a week or two ago and surprisingly discovered that Grant Desme is apparently playing pro ball again. Any thoughts? Is there any chance that this turns into the Kirk Cameron directed version of “The Rookie” or is this just a 32 year old guy having some fun? I figure best of luck to the guy either way, but I’d love to know what led him back to playing. 4:42 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a Lancaster Barnstormer now. He’s 32, and I have no idea if he wants to get back into affiliated ball, but it’d be awesome if he tried 4:43 Bernie: Zack Brown, anything there? Looks really good right now 4:43 Eric A Longenhagen: 93-96, plus breaker, change flashes above avg, delivery is violent and probably a reliever 4:43 Ford: have you met Scout? 4:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, she was acquired after Kiley left AZ and moved back to Hell 4:44 D Money: Rank these 3: Drew Waters, Leody Taveras, Brandon Marsh 4:44 Eric A Longenhagen: And with that, the chat shall end. Thanks for coming to this week’s half-marathon. See you next Thursday, same chat time, same chat station.