Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/5/26
| 12:02 |
: Good morning, y’all. Sorry for the slight delay, had a cat w/ bird situation to handle just as we were supposed to start.
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| 12:03 |
: (bird was bleeding a bit but also flew away just now so…yay?)
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| 12:03 |
: Nice to see a very young cubs overslot doing well, what is Hartshorns ceiling as of right now?
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| 12:05 |
: Everyday 1B driven by OBP and contact, more doubles pop than huge raw. Like 55 hit, 50 power, plus plate discipline. Don’t think he’s a 30+ homer guy. We considered 50’ing him when he did Cubs, but thought the 45 was more in line with the value of the profile when it’s in A-ball.
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| 12:05 |
: Hey, a Dax Kilby sighting at the Rookie league! Just stay healthy kid!
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| 12:05 |
: Wooot, now go hit please.
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| 12:06 |
: In the time honored tradition of scouting the stat line, is Tanner Thach a thing? Clearly needs a promotion at the very least.
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| 12:07 |
: In most cases when we’re talking about a college hitter in the Cal league, the answer is an emphatic yes. His contact rate is way up, the raw power piece of it is not.
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| 12:07 |
: Any word on Josuar’s latest injury?
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| 12:08 |
: Just that it looked like hammy again in the moment when he tweaked it again. He has not officially been put on the IL so there’s no official reason given.
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| 12:09 |
: Who’s the best pitching prospect in baseball? And can you compare/contrast Seth Hernandez and Ryan Sloan?
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| 12:13 |
: Sloan it’s 95-100, fastball has great shape and is playing like a 70, cutter, sweeper, splitter. Breaker playing more like 55/60, split more average. Huge extension, beefy guy but great athlete. Workhorse.
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| 12:16 |
: Sethy 95-99, bad fastball shape, playing like a 70, gyro slider, curveball, changeup. Secondary pitches all playing like elite offerings. IN-zone rate for secondary pitches (35% for slider, other just under 50%) suggest there might be a strike-throwing issue not yet exposed. love both arms, River Ryan is the best pitching prospect if you want a combo of ceiling and proximity
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| 12:17 |
: Happy Friday, Eric. Tate Southisene… we looking at a 50 here?
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| 12:17 |
: Swing length and oppo spray contact profile make we want to see him perform against better velo first.
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| 12:18 |
: has roughly average contact rate and peak measurable power so far, nothing crazy.
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| 12:18 |
: Ethan Salas doesn’t at least merit an arrow up on The Board?
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| 12:21 |
: I’m sure we’ll move him when we do our next update. I think we were the lone publication to leave him on the hondo during the offseason? Peak power is way up, even above the standard adjustment for this year’s minor league pop. Hard hit rate still a shade below the big league average which perhaps speaks to lesser contact quality. Glad we held onto him.
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| 12:21 |
: Salas moving the needle for you? Trying not to get too excited in case it’s a juiced ball mirage.
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| 12:22 |
: Contact rate is up, too, (86% this year, 81% last year, 75-76% the prior two years), and it looks like the up/away hole in his swing is not as big as before, jus peeking at the heat map.
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| 12:22 |
: Any chance you know why Johennsy Colome hasn’t made it into any DSL games yet?
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| 12:22 |
: I do not
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| 12:22 |
: Aidan Miller… ouch. Do you have any notes or comps for the back surgery he’s getting?
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| 12:23 |
: Lumbar spine issues happen, but this type of surgery is new to me.
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| 12:23 |
: Been all of three games, any immediate reports coming from the DSL?
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| 12:23 |
: I have just been focused on Pirates and now the Twins.
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| 12:23 |
: Would Yolfran Castillo be a better prospect if he hit from the left side or was a switch-hitter. Just got moved up … is he still a long term simmer as a prospect?
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| 12:24 |
: Any hitting prospect would be. Yolfran is a slow burn from a power dev standpoint. Lots of room for strength there.
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| 12:26 |
: Your write-up on Ramon Marquez had him better suited for relief; he’s off to (somehow) an even better start this year than last year. Has anything changed about his prospects?
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| 12:29 |
: Stuff is up, about two ticks. 94-96 now. Delivery is still really violent. It’s the sort of thing that will be dictated by how many innings he can work and prove the durability piece. Good pitching prospect
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| 12:30 |
: Tyson Lewis is walking less and K’ing roughly the same while repeating A ball. Is he losing shine or still believe he’ll get to the 60/70 power?
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| 12:31 |
: I had future 30 hit, 70 raw, 55 game on the Reds list. That’s still the hope, but repeating A ball and striking out 34% of the time is a busty data detail
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| 12:32 |
: Any chance the prospect team might revisit Jake Bloss’s 50?
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| 12:35 |
: As in… it’s too low? I can say there’s 100% chance we revisit everyone’s grade until they’re up and near graduation. In Bloss’ case, he’s throwing hard as he rehabs, his secondary stuff is well-defined, his changeup looks great, he’s a small school guy still honing his craft (at one point he had to look into his glove to check his slider grip last outing)..I like him
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| 12:35 |
: Is Luis De Leon out of the top 100 in the next update for you at this point?
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| 12:35 |
: I imagine he’ll remain a 50 but slider toward the back with other more extreme relief risk bois
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| 12:35 |
: Who hits a HR next, Waldschmidt, Tatis Jr, or surprise entry, Nick Gonzalez?
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| 12:36 |
: Waldy will get his firts one today
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| 12:36 |
: I took a look through the last ten years of Mariners draft and focused on the first and second round picks over that time. With two exceptions every pick they have made has either made their MLB debut or in the case of the last three years is on pace to make their debut in the next 24 months. Is that rare or has MLB amateur scouting just gotten better as a whole so there are less early round misses than there were the previous ten years?
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| 12:36 |
: They have been as good a scouting/dev group as we have in baseball right now
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| 12:36 |
: Did that bird’s speed grade out at a 50 or higher for being able to fly away despite possibly being wounded?
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| 12:37 |
: I mean, my 11 year old cat caught it so… probably a 40
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| 12:40 |
: Reds list came out in December, and Arroyo was a 40. Anything in the minor league sample this year that would move him? Could he be a guy in the MI?
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| 12:40 |
: Has the throwing accuracy stuff improved?
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| 12:40 |
: Any new thoughts on Hendry Mendez? He’s been on a tear between AA/AAA this year in terms of surface level stats, and the GB% is mirroring last year in the mid 50s.
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| 12:41 |
: He’s a super weird, unique player. Maybe Yandy Diaz except LF/DF? He’s a LF only defender and isn’t good there, there are guys who put the ball on the ground that much but aside from Yelich most of them are more 40/45s. Def a fun prospect and big leaguer
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| 12:42 |
: Call me fettuccine because Alfredo (Duno) is cooking! Does a jump to AA seem likely in the near future? Have you seen much of him this year to speak on his play behind the plate?
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| 12:44 |
: I’d let him air out in Dayton all year, personally. Still under 70% contact rate. DoubleA next year, then onto the 40-man.
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| 12:44 |
: I read all of your prospect coverage, but I refuse to believe that there’s a guy named Jhonny Level. It’s as unbelievable as if you told us that The Password’s name is really Password.
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| 12:46 |
: The modern-day Sidd Finch would be to fabricate a prospect and do some sports card market fixing
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| 12:46 |
: Any concerns with Rainiel Rodriguez? Or just young player struggling with AA pitching?
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| 12:47 |
: the latter
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| 12:48 |
: Any fastball improvements this season from either Nate Payne or Jackson Kent? The FG grades imply this would be what’s holding them back from being top-100 arms and it looks they are each having strong seasons thus far.
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| 12:49 |
: Kent I see no change to his FB play
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| 12:51 |
: Payne’s delivery and repertoire are very different
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| 12:51 |
: velo up a tick
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| 12:52 |
: fastball playing like a 70 so far
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| 12:52 |
: more about deception than velo, obvs
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| 12:53 |
: Again a guy we’d wanna see 100+ innings from before getting crazy
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| 12:54 |
: Any insight on Brewers OF Alexander Frias? Seems like he’s hitting the ball hard, but also hitting it on the ground a bit.
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| 12:55 |
: Physical kid, big bat speed, really only capable of lifting pitches down and in. Glad he made the Brewers list during the Fall, think itt’s more extreme power over hit look than we graded at the time
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| 12:56 |
: Any of these Super Regional teams that are a must scout for you ahead of the draft?
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| 12:57 |
: Auburn, more for next year than this.
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| 12:57 |
: Thoughts on the trade return for AJ Brown?
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| 12:57 |
: Having that in hand allowed for the Grenard trade, no notes. Wish AJ the best, it wasn’t a great fit even tho he’s awesome.
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| 12:57 |
: Who are some guys you’re tuning in to see during the NCAA Super Regionals?
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| 1:01 |
: Cal Poly’s senior RP messy arm strength guy, West Virginia catcher Gavin Kelly, Chase Fralick and Mason McCraine at Auburn, Cade Townsend and Owen Paino at Ole Miss (Paino can really play SS).. lotts good sports this weekend, guys.
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| 1:01 |
: does anyone do significant scouting work in australia? i know mead didn’t really work out, but bazzana (sss caveats aside) looks pretty legit. it’s certainly not a huge population of ballplayers, but i’m wondering what kind of talent pool is there…
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| 1:04 |
: There is good baseball culture in Australia daing back to Graeme lloyd (at least in my recollection) and then Grant Balfour, Ryan Rowland Smith, Liam Hendriks, etc. There’s interaction in a couple different ways. Teams def scout amateurs there and sign the occasional guy. Philly, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tigers, A’s all have recent minor leaguers (and there are more I’m missing for sure) and teams also send guys there for winter ball. The Rays and Reds, for example.
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| 1:06 |
: Ok guys, that’s my time. Enjoy the super regionals and winter sports finals this weekend! I’ll be working on Twins this weekend and look forward to talking through that next week. Byeee
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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
I’m getting a message in the Jotcast chat “You are in read-only mode. Log in for full access” but I’m already logged into my FanGraphs account. I know you folks were trying new things with the chats, but not sure what to do here. I have content blockers disabled…
Edit: this is happening on Desktop. Mobile site works fine.
I have this issue on mobile.
Dave Nilsson was a great Aussie player in the ’90s, too!
Kilby hasn’t played in a week. It was just one game eight days ago. I am assuming a relapse but as usual no news.
Also if anyone knows what happened to Chase Shores I am all ears. A dominant start at the end of April and then disappeared.
Dave Nilsson still remains Brewers all time leader in HR for catcher. +100 HRs
Love me some Nilsson Schmilsson, but he only hit 40 of his HR while playing catcher with the Brewers. The majority came playing 1B / DH / corner OF.
Lucroy (77 HR), Darrell Porter (49 HR), Contreras (46 HR), Bill Schroeder (46 HR) and almost even Manny Pina (39 HR) had more HR while donning the tools.
“River Ryan is the best pitching prospect if you want a combo of ceiling and proximity”…. 💣
I thought that was an unusual comment. Eric is right, but that is because he is probably the most majors-ready pitching prospect in the minors right now. He has already debuted and the only reason he isn’t in the majors already is that he got seriously hurt before his rookie eligibility was exhausted.
Kade Anderson would be my next choice, and a more conventional one. He could pitch in MLB tomorrow and his upside is much higher than it looked at first.
I disagree on Frias being extreme power over hit. I do think the power could be plus, but he shows a good eye in ABs and squares balls up in a way that makes me think he’ll hit.
Aside from the SF duo of Luis Hernandez and Josuar Gonzalez and maybe Jhomnardo Reyes there aren’t many complex bats I like better than Frias. He runs well too, and I could see him holding that and even improving it if he can get stronger without bulking up too much.