Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 7/31/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi hello how are you, it’s another 115+ degree day here in Tempe, time to chat.

Big Fan: Philosophically, do you feel like contenders value their prospects too much?  Not enough?  The right amount?  I’m sure the answer varies by team, but it’d be interesting to hear which teams typically fall in which bucket.

Eric A Longenhagen: It varies by executive even more than team. The small market teams covet the surplus value, and the way GM trees have grown the last 20 years has made it so the folks who helm those teams have migrated to the bigger markets, and those philosophies are then employed by the Dodgers, Mets, etc. One’s need to hug prospect is inversely related with their ability to draft and make more. WHen you’re a well-oiled machine like the Rays, you should be more aggressive and push the chips in now and then.

aglossman: I have no interesting or original questions to ask. Do you think the Sox will trade Arias? I hope not

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, if they do it’d have to be for someone so good you might feel otherwise after it’s done.

Big Fan: The Braves have recently promoted a handful of prospects.  Do you think the timing was to juice their value in models without giving a player long enough to be exposed at a new level?

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, maybe? But if decisions are being made by the seat of peoples’ pants and their updated output has changed meaningfully purely because of the promotion, I’d feel worried about that team.

Andre Mouchard: Two things: 1. The deadline prospect updates are great. Thanks. 2. In the Dodgers update I might’ve missed K. Lindsey (sp?)… Is he trending down? Stats aren’t bad.

Eric A Longenhagen: Underlying miss is bad and he’s fallen from SS (with hope he could play CF if he can’t play SS) to 2B.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cal League surface stats, just toss ’em

Baseball Learner: How do we feel about Ben Hess? And is Henry Lalane the real deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m working on a Yankees update. Hess has added a cutter, strikes still aren’t there. No change to him. Lalane stock up. Both secondaries playing like plus pitches, velo is up. Strikes just okay but enough to start

Dave: Happy Max Clark Day to all who celebrate!  In your opinion, does he possess any particular traits that might lead to either a quicker- or longer-than-average adjustment period in the bigs?  What should Tigers’ fans expectations be?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just hope the whole social media entourage thing doesn’t become a circus at the big league level. I bet he’s gonna be good pretty quickly, at hitting anyway.

matt: It seems to be reported that Dodgers like Quintero more than Siroto, how unpopular of a take is that?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not crazy, Sirota’s in-zone whiff rates are scary.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sirota has more overt big league physicality and playable power right now. Quintero is a pup still and a better CF glove by a good bit, better contact hitter by a little bit.

Matt: Arias seems more highly rated across the board than Wolcott. What’s the main reason there? Does Wolcott’s injury have anything to do with it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Arias has also been an elite contact hitter. We’re all just letting Walcott breath coming off the injury, he’s been back for like a week. The offseason might yield a different pref, but right now I feel like the guy who has been healthy and who you’ve seen play defense for the last two years (while Sebby has mostly not) is who you take right now

Dell’s Lemonade: I recognize that Brendan published the Brewers update, but is it your understanding that Frank Cairone‘s recovery from his off-season accident is too uncertain to remain on the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on there still, sitting 87-90 in AZ. Deserves a beat to return to form, but glad he’s well enough to pitch.

war2d2: Ericccc! The Cubs did their annual leaking of a “we’re in on <top free agent>” story to a favorite beat writer this week. Like Dan said in chat yesterday, they _should_ be in on Skubal, given how much of a difference he’d make to this particular team, but I just don’t see Jed pulling the trigger on anything that big. For the sake of argument let’s say they did. What would that look like? It feels like they’d have to at minimum give up Shaw and Ramirez, and probably at least a couple more org top-20 guys. Would you do it if you were the shot caller? What about if you were the Tigers? Feels like they should expect to get a league-top-20 prospect back, and that’s not coming from the Cubs (unless you count Shaw).

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m happy to deal Shaw and fine dealing Pedro. I don’t think Shaw is very good.

doughboy: Reports state that the Tigers want a major league ready arm in any deal for Skubal. Dodgers and Brewers are able to provide this. Do you see anyone in the Rays, Cubs, and Braves systems who can do this alongside another 50 FV-ish position player?

Eric A Longenhagen: Any of the Rays offseason 40-man additions would qualify for me, so:

Eric A Longenhagen: Hopkins, Baumeister, Suarez, Ty Johnson, Forret, maybe GGH and TJ Nichols but def a tier below the others.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Brewers have less in the way of these guys, but you might consider Sproat, Henderson, Gasser as options because of how controllable they remain.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hardin

Salty: In the blurb for Benny’s kid Bruin, it’s mentioned he has low avg bat speed.  What is the best way for a player to improve on that?  Bat swing/stance adjustments or just maturing physically with tailored exercises/workouts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I can be a multitude of things, you mentioned several. It does tend to be a sticky, talent-related thing a lot of the time. But clearly it can take time to find the right recipe and we get Jake Bauers

crossedup: Any prospects, whether on a team trading prospects or not, you think needs a change of scenery/org?

Eric A Longenhagen: Leo Bernal

oaktownblues: How did Tommy “Tanks” White go from averaging 25 HR per year in college to looking like he has below average power now? F change in approach? Were the college numbers always a metal bat mirage?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, plus elements of his swing that limit his ability to pull the baseball which have always been there and have been the reason he’s tended to be lower on my A’s pref.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’s bad, I just think he’s a 40.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like a lot of the A’s guys, I’m pretty insulated and don’t know what the general enthusiasm is for these dudes online beyond what ends up in my chat, via which I learned you guy love Colby Thomas, Henry Bolte, and White.

filter2: Why do some players have an asterisk at the end of their names on The Board?

Eric A Longenhagen: They were draft eligible sophs, I need to go in and delete those.

Eric A Longenhagen: They should exist on the amateur board only

scioscia: What would a Milwaukee package for detmers look like? Something close to Gore’s return?

Eric A Longenhagen: That feels right, three good players where two of them have a ton of risk.

ED44: Sad days in Cincy. Hard to envision them getting much by way of trade unless they decide to part with Hunter Greene, in which case LAD seems like a fit. What kind of prospect haul would he likely get from the Dodgers? Can’t say the Reds have shown much of an ability to identify/develop prospects of late, but they’re staring down yet another rebuild, and unfortunately, it’s not likely to be a rebuild of the ownership group/FO.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, Hunter to LA seems like an eventual thing because of how strongly I associate him with LA. It’d be weird for them to reacquire Sirota. I’d ask for Zazueta, one of the outfielders, Leiter, and then probably one of Arias or Melburne because I can’t help myself.

Jonathan Adelman: Assuming there isn’t a revised Yankees prospect list before the deadline, what FV would you guys slap into Wilberson De Pena?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s atop my list, I rolled through the DSL guys last night and then got caught up trying to gather details on Yostin Pena’s voided deal with the Cardinals because that guy is pretty freaky.

cwood41: When the angels looked at arredondo, what could they possibly see in him to think hes a top 10 guy in their system?  Do they think he’s like, an elian pena type, since they’ve got similar slash lines and body types?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good defender and contact hitter, yeah he’s a softer bodied kid but he moves well. Below avg bat speed. I like him some, remember Mo just got done running a Cardinals team that loved Thomas Saggese, Jose Fermin, Tommy Edman, etc. He’s comfortable tracking in these guys and I think it’s fine, but I wish they’d have gotten back a second piece because it’s rarely a good idea to be the team trading multiple pieces to get back one. IDK how the talks went, obvs.

broeygallo: How do we tie out our traditional scouting view of left handedness being more valuable than right handedness in hitters, with what is obviously a current scarcity (thus excess value) of right handed hitting?

Eric A Longenhagen: Counterpoint: The good teams are good in part because they’re more left-handed and that’s why they need complimentary righties?

Hazmat Corntail: Any prospects you’d like to see be traded over the next few days? Guys who are badly blocked, or could benefit from an org change?

warpath: The Twins have to finally give Emmanuel Rodriguez an MLB shot before the end of this season and see what’s inside the box, right? He’s currently rehabbing and he’s in his last option year.

Eric A Longenhagen: These are kidn of related: I’d really like the Twins to buy and sell simultaneously. Move a catcher, then trade a bunch of prospects for a better one with years of team control. Part of this is because I’d like to see some of their younger OFs get big league run asap. But I’m more interested in seeing Hendry and Jenkins than E-Rod or Gonzalez.

eandy: I find it shocking that other teams haven’t been able to raid the Dodgers front office. Are they paying these guys more than a promotion in another org would provide?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah. Plus, would you wanna leave the Dodgers? Should we put a cap on baseball ops department salaries so they can’t hire great people? My “polling” says that’s what fans want.

richwp01: “Bonemer (68% contact rate, 23 degrees of launch on average) might not be a third baseman, which is a big part of why he falls from the top of the 50 FV tier to the back of it.” The defense is what dropped him, or the contact rate/K% matter more in the drop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both

Robert: It is 2030. Aaron Judge retired. Does Florentino, Montes or Ethan Holliday lead the MLB in home runs?

Eric A Longenhagen: You picked a group I’m scared of.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cami, obvs

kleborp: Yostin Pena putting up big exit velos in his brief Low A stint. Guy to get excited about yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, he’s freaky, gonna be stuffed on this Yankees update I’m working on.

Beano: Is Jim Jarvis the answer at SS for the Braves? Or is a trade in the works?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a nice stopgap because of the defense, which is so so good.

topanga jeff: Thanks for sharing hitter data on your recent top 100 update. It was interesting to see how similar Rainiel and Ralphy were. Are they the same hitter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Rainiel will be a better contact hitter when all is said and done.

dan norman lear: Who is the best prospect/recent grad who gets dealt? Hope? Painter? Jesus Montero?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Lombard gets moved.

dan norman lear: As we muddle through a weird trade deadline, I’d like to say they should really make draft picks tradable in whatever weird deal they make next June.  I think it would actually help loosen things up and make big deals much more likely IMHO.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree about pick tradability (within reason, I don’t want an NBA situation where we have to keep track of years and years worth of swaps) but I’m also not sure how much weight they carry. Bryan Baker (who is damn good) for a comp pick gives as a pretty good idea of how teams value those picks: like a controllable reliever.

fincampbell05: By “someone so good you might feel otherwise after it’s done,” I assume you’re not referring to the Goodman, Neto, Lopez tier of players that are being connected to the Red Sox? More like an EDLC?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, like if Arias moves it’ll have been for some deal none of us saw coming

zabadoey: Like Adams could be a trade candidate. He has seemed to always put up solid numbers with the bat, and projection systems love his combo of low Ks, high BBs, good power. From a hitting POV, are there warts that the stat line is hiding?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s entirely about whether you think Adams’ super duper hardline, pull-heavy approach is actually sustainable, and if that’s enough for him to profile at 1B (where he belongs on defense)

nebravesfan33: Not a prospect question but has happened to Austin Riley?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is how hard it is to predict this stuff. A guy can prove to you that he’s awesome and it can just end without a real explanation.

djtofu: Do we know what caused Carson Bolemon’s velo to be down this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it can be as simple as, “This is what it looks like when he goes six innings ratehr than one or two on the showcase circuit”

scai: Does Kristian Campbell need a change of scenery?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’d be interested in seeing that.

rickdugo3000: eyanson for skubal makes a ton of sense for everyone, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not moving Skub for only Eyanson, but he’s an okay start.

sattebery11: Any more on that Leo Bernal comment? 22 YO switch hitting catchers with defensive chops to stick at the position don’t grow on trees

Eric A Longenhagen: They just have so many catchers. It’s seemingly not an opportune time to move one because so many are available.

dubtriton: How come we don’t see young Japanese or Korean guys signing international deals like the international signing guys coming out of Latin American countries? Are there baseball academies in Japan and Korea, and scouts trying to sign these guys, or is the pull to first play in NPB / KBO a monetary thing? A status thing? A cultural thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: We kind of do, there are a few Korean and Taiwanese players every year who sign as amateurs. It’s only recently some of the youngsters have bucked cultural norms to pursue MLB opportunities, or to come to college over here. The lower dollar deals the Latino kids accept are typically not enough to pry away the same level of talent in those countries because they have alternatives.

evangamer: Easton carmichael stock up? The batted ball profile & contact data look pretty solid for someone who projects as a ++ defender

Eric A Longenhagen: I quite like him, yeah.

Dan Labriola: I vaguely remember you expressing some skepticism/concern about Elian Pena’s stiff lower half in his swing. Was there a change in that particularly that left you comfortable with having him on the back end of the 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely looks better versus breakers now than he did during Mets list work.

Eric A Longenhagen: He and Santucci are the top guys in the system right now.

war2d2: Kind of a vague scouting question that I’ve been trying for weeks to formulate (but haven’t gotten any closer to cogent so I’ll just dump it out): I’ve been an obsessive baseball follower for 40+ years, and as such I almost always have an immediate knee-jerk reaction when I see a young guy come up. I vaguely place them in categories of “won’t make it / a ballplayer / future star” and for the most part I’m always pretty close. Eg: I’ve watched Pedro Ramirez for less than a dozen games, but I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t finish his career with at least 15-20 WAR. He seems like “a ballplayer.” I just finished watching a 4-game series with the Cards and I’m pretty confident that JJ Wetherholt is a fair bit better than that. That’s background; the actual _question_ is why? Why do I know that? What am I seeing, yet unable to articulate, that guys like you and Eric seem to have a real lock on?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re doing with baseball what I do with football, which is to immerse yourself in it and just feel your way to conclusions that are vague but mostly correct. It’s just being a sports fan who isn’t half-ass watching while they scroll

Dave: Any reports on how Jobe has looked on rehab (given he almost certainly will have a rotation spot for the last 6 weeks of the season)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lemme see what I can drum up quick

Eric A Longenhagen: 4sm 97-100 17vert 9 horiz
2sm 96-98 8 vert 15 horiz
Slider 89-91
Curveball 81-84
Change 85-88 missing bats better than the breakers

Ponopoly: Is Billy Carlson going to be able to hit a baseball enough to be a contributor in the Majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: His defense alone will make him a contributor, it’s about whether he’ll time fastballs enough to be a Dude.

rossredcay: Saw Albert Fermin moved from a 40+ to 45+ on the board.  What changed with his eval that drove that move?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was in the top 100 mix for me while we did the update but we we not ready to jump as a group and this was an in between step.

Vampire Weekend at Bernie’s: Knowing what we know about Steele Hall now (granted, not a ton), where do you think he would have been drafted this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably in the same area

reyrh: Asking as someone with Fredericksburg v Kannapolis tickets in three weeks, have you heard if Cholowsky or Hacopian is likely to be moved up to the Carolina League, or skip that level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Roch played a game here in AZ yesterday so I bet he’s at an affiliate down the stretch.

Charles Bengal Tiger: Who’s the leader in the clubhouse for ending up atop The Board’s initial 2027 draft list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brendan Lawson

Big Fan: I asked Dan this as well, but would appreciate your take.  Does Lindor at 5/$160m need a bonafide prospect in return, or attached to him?  Or does a team just take the contract and send Phil Gosselin back?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lindor has a .350 xwOBA and is still a value-add defender in a year where he’s dealt with injuries. If the Mets were willing to make him a salary dump I’d be all over that.

Eric A Longenhagen: EVen his RoY zips have him finishing as a 2.5 WAR player, which is barely under water for his contract.

Michael: There’s been some chatter about the Cubs possibly trading Carson Kelly and replacing him with Owen Ayers, which seems nuts, but what do I know? How legit is Ayers’ bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Ayers and think he’s a better bet to stay back there than Mo Baller.

InsertWittyNameHere: For the non-social media people, can you explain the Max Clark entourage thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been a social media star since he was a kid, he has like a quarter of a million tiktok followers and is followed around by folks with cameras a lot of the time.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta run and do some more work. Thanks for coming again this week.