Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 7/11

Eric A Longenhagen: When there’s no future(s game), how can there be sin?

Dynasty Dummy: Will you be doing a midyear prospect list for FG?

Eric A Longenhagen: A valid and important question. I will not. Offseason lists start in September and run through most of spring training, the top 100 (or whatever number) list is a thing that comes together toward the end of that six month process. Having a top 100 from the offseason to use as a barometer for your mid-season update is really important. As I have no offseason list to update I cannot do a midyear top 100.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d love to manifest a list and I’m sure it’d be good for FG, but there’s just no way to do it the right way without having the proper foundation.

Mike: Could Eloy Jimenez headline a trade for a reliver? Or is he too far away from the majors to be the main piece?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I’d trade Eloy for a reliever.

Steve: What are your thoughts on Carson Fulmer’s long-term future? Can he help the Sox in the pen come August?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s a pen arm. I suppose it’s possible he could help, the stuff is certainly good enough, but he’s struggled a bit this year and it’s hard to justify quickly promoting someone who hasn’t had overwhelming success.

GPT: Why was there so much commotion about Bickford’s velocity yesterday? He has been at 89-93 all season and that is where he was yesterday.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s basically been 90-94 and reaching back for a little more than that when he wants every time I’ve seen him. Was it odd that we didn’t see that or even a tick above in a short stint yesterday? Kind of, but Bickford isn’t that kind of arm. What was weird yesterday was a lack of fastball command, which he always had for me at CSN.

Eric A Longenhagen: But that could be explained away by stage fright if you wanted to. It’s worth noting that Bickford didn’t sign after high school because his medicals were no bueno.

Timber: Who’s your favorite under-the-radar hitting prospect in the Phillies system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Canelo

976: Szymborski just said Yandy Diaz might struggle in the majors because his walk rate might not translate well. Agree or is he a future regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with Dan, and because of more than just the walk rate. Not confident he’ll hit, in general. 7 arm, though.

Erik: Giant Phillies prospect Jhailyn Ortiz is off to a hot start through his first 12 games in pro ball. Can he succeed despite his body type? He looks like David Ortiz already, and he’s just 17.

Eric A Longenhagen: Small sample but yeah there’s huge power there. He’s had a lot of physical fluctuation since he was 15.

Rick: Chih-Wei Hu looked great in his inning. His change or whatever that was looked scary. Without getting too worked up over 3 batters, how much should we take away from his appearance and what’s his future look like to you? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: So, Hu calls that pitch the cat. And he grips it with his thumb and pinky at the 7 and 4 o clock spots on the baseball with his middle finger at the 12 and his index and ring finger at the 10 and the 2. Does that make sense to you guys, it’s an odd thing to describe.

Eric A Longenhagen: It has splitter action and I marked it as a splitter in my notes before learning how he grips it. It was yesterday’s only 70 secondary offering and it’s freaky as hell. The fastball is flat and plays below the velo so there’s some concern there.

PS: What are your thoughts on Drew Finley as a prospect? Obviously has a long way to go, but do you think he has projectable stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the changeup is projectable via reps, but he’s always lacked physical projection so I don’t envision more fastball coming and the curveball is already pretty good.

Pat: Ian Clarkin is pitching well since his return. Have you seen him post injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: Curveball flashes but is inconsistent, as is the control. Was mostly 88-91 last time I saw him with some sink. Not a big fan.

PSM2f: Any standout prospects from the first month of Rookie Ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jeez, has it been a month already? Tatis Jr has looked pretty good out here, Fran Cespedes has been up to 98, the entire Indians AL club is fun…lots of stuff

Dean Gulberry: Eric – what kind of player do you see Ryon Healy becoming in the majors? He seems like an “under the radar” type of prospect.. Doesn’t get much pub and has been tearing it up for over a year now.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s 65 raw but concerns over the glove at 3B and how viable the hit tool is abound. The swing is grooved, not a lot of bat control there and I’ve talked to people view him as a mistake-only hitter

Conrad: Thoughts on Carlos Asuaje? Hitting well in AAA but doesn’t have high projection for many people.

Eric A Longenhagen: Love the bat to ball skills, probably won’t hit for enough power to profile as an above average regular, but I like him.

Eric A Longenhagen: And the Little 2B Who Can Hit Club is strong these days.

Pat: Do you think Aaron Judge can be a 4-5 win player?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s probably a far right-tail outcome but I don’t think it’s impossible.

guapo: Eric, think Lithuanian Dovydas Neverauskas is bullpen fixture for Pirates going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was 95-97 yesterday with a low-90s cutter. I’d like to see something that changes speeds a bit more than that but there’s big league arm strength for sure.

PadresFan: Opinion on Luis Urias. He’s 19 and just was called up to AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Great contact skills, doesn’t play SS for me but I believe in the bat enough that I think he’ll make for a versatile low-end regular.

Greg: What would a Teheran to Boston trade look like?

Eric A Longenhagen: I obviously have no idea, but I’m not a big Teheran fan. If I’m Boston I could see myself giving up Sam Travis or someone of that ilk, a 45 FV type of player.

Erik: How much of catcher defense is receiving/framing vs throwing? For someone like Jorge Alfaro, who seems to be roughly a 40-45 receiver with a 70-grade arm, does that add up to just about an average defensive catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: I split these three things into separate categories for myself:
Grade the arm (and note the way raw arm strength and the other variables that impact pop times like footwork, getting out of crouch, etc)
Grade the glove (and note the pos/neg of the receiving, blocking, etc)
Can he catch? (just a binary yes or no based on the combo of the above evaluation)

Jabroni: What can you tell me about Reds prospect Tony Santillan? Need something to hope for in the Queen City.

Eric A Longenhagen: He throws really hard (I’ve seen him up to 99 but he was 94-97 for me this spring) and the slider flashes plus. Control/command will probably always be an issue.

Erik: Which Phillies AA slugger is more exciting, Cozens or Hoskins?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cozens is more exciting (he hit a ball yesterday that hung in the air for like 7/25 seconds, which is the highest ball I’ve ever seen hit) but I’m more confident in Hoskins’ ability to hit in the big leagues.

Nate: I know most of the 2016 infield prep bats are having a tough transition to pro ball, but can you given me some positives from what you’ve seen of Gavin Lux so far. Is his 20% bb rate because of advanced pitch recognition ability; or because AZL pitchers can’t throw strikes?

Eric A Longenhagen: SSS and probably more of the latter reason than advanced pitch recog.

The other Kyle: Thinking of making a run at the title in my keeper league and have Urias, Glasnow, Reyes, Dahl, Meadows, Winker, Peraza to use as trade bait. I’m thinking Dahl and Meadows are the only two untouchables. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Dahl but probably not enough for him to be off limits, especially given his injury history. Meadows is a sound choice to retain at all costs. Winker was rehabbing last week in AZ and did not look good, the bat speed is just not there right now. Might wanna move him.

Deke: Francisco Mejia – eventual above-average offensive catcher? Thanks, Eric.

Eric A Longenhagen: He sure is explosive but that swing from the left side is so high-effort that it’s hard to see him making a lot of contact. Had a sub1.9 pop on him yesterday.

Zork: Happy slurpee day!

Eric A Longenhagen: Is today really slurpee day? I can have like 3 sips of one of those before I’m sick of it.

Q-Ball: With Yoan Lopez struggles, it appears the D-Backs put themselves in penalty phase for pretty much no return. 3 IFA years down the tubes. Is that your take?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a really bad situation and, not only did it cost them more Int’l signings but pervasive rumors are that it cost them Touki for budgetary reasons.

Bork: Think Vladdy Jr is going to skyrocket to the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think there’s a good chance he gets exposed somewhere between Hi and Double A and has to make a significant adjustment to go any further.

Argo: Do you think Benintendi’s approach is polished enough, that he doesn’t necessarily need AAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d agree with that, yes.

Clint: Drew Pomeranz for Lewis Brinson. Who hangs up first? Do you know what is causing Brinson’s lackluster year thus far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Daniels hangs up. Not selling low on Brinson.

Philip: Manuel Margot: Between his baserunning, defense, and bat to ball skills, think he can be a 5 win player?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he has the tools to do that. I think it would involve a pretty serious mechanical adjustment to get him hitting for the kind of power that would generate 5 wins and attempting to enact those changes is pretty risky because you might break him altogether.

Maddness: Do you see Amed Rosario being a top 10/15 prospect before the start of next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Might end up in that 10-15 range, yup. Looked great yesterday.

Jack C.: How awesome is it attending the Futures Game? I’d love to go one day.

Eric A Longenhagen: This is probably more appropriate to dive into with Carson on the podcast but yes, it was quite the experience.

Eric A Longenhagen: The most torturous part of it for me (this was my first futures game) was standing five feet away from people like Peter Gammons but having to force myself to bear down on Travis Demeritte’s BP.

Advice: How do you get over a prospect you instinctively fall in love with, yet when properly evaluated you realize isn’t very good?

Eric A Longenhagen: This happens a lot to me. You just have to light a candle, put on a Smiths record and write a 30 on the report.

Smokey: Jake Thompson has been putting up a pretty ERA and a solid walk rate, but the strikeouts aren’t there. Cause for concern?

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw him last week (and am working on getting my field notes up, I promise, travelling has been taxing) and it was okay. like 90-94, slider is a 55 but everything else is just average. Slider usage and location are going to be REALLY important for him. He struggled with slider command early and then threw six of them in a row, found his feel for locating it, and cruised the rest of the way.

The Cincinnati Kid: Is this still SSS territory or is THIS a Jake Lamb we can count on going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe.

Philip: Any guys like Victor Mesa, Luis Robert, or Hector Mendoza that you could see leave the island be elgible this IFA?

Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t see Mesa leaving. He comes from a Cuban baseball family and is probably the island’s heir to the Gourriel throne. Robert’s situation is cloudier. There were reports that he disappeared late in the winter but he obviously hasn’t, though he looked disinterested when I saw him last week. He might have tried or be trying to leave but, as one of the three players left on the island that I think are worth caring about, he’s probably under lock and key.

Eric A Longenhagen: Have no idea on Mendoza’s situation, but think he’s a reliever.

Eric: Which prospect were you most surprised/disappointed with yesterday?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bonifacio was disappointing.

Rick C: Swanson or Bregman?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ferrin asked me this on live radio yesterday and it was like asking me to pick my favorite ice cream flavor on the spot. I said Bregman. More confident that he can play SS than I was pre-draft and I think the uptick in power is sustainable, though probably not to the extreme level we’ve seen him SLG in the minors.

Eric: Are any of the hot AAA bats guys that can help their MLB team this year? (Margot, Renfroe, Winker, Dahl, etc)

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably just Margot, and most of that would be with the glove.

Johnny5Alive: dominic smith finally with some power this year… think there’s more to come, or will he be a james loney type

Eric A Longenhagen: I could probably talk for 20 uninterrupted mins about Smith. There’s not more power to come in that traditional, physical projection sense (the way there is with Eloy Jimenez or a there was with a 17 year old Sano) where you think the player will grow into more power. Smith’s power projection has always been cloudy because he’s already a big kid who everyone thought would just learn to create more lift in his swing. I think it’s coming and I think he’ll hit 18-22ish homers annually.

Eric A Longenhagen: But every time I see Smith, he looks bigger and bigger and it’s getting to the point where I don’t have many comps for that body in the big leagues, and that scares me a little bit.

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: Clint Frazier has not been promoted intra-year. Does he at least get a taste of AAA in the second half to (hopefully) prepare him for a run at the majors next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. I think he deserves it. Josh Norris from BA told me a story about Frazier’s interest in scouting and learning about his prospect peers, presumably so he’s armed with knowledge to destroy them. I really liked that.

JD: What is your process for projecting guys that are so far from the majors and/or are so young?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s almost easier to scout those guys because you’re just worried about tools and athleticism rather than the functionality and utility of those tools.

Eric A Longenhagen: The hard part comes when you say, “Okay, I think this guy is going to have #3 starter stuff and command” and then you have to adjust your FV grade based on risk and that 18 year old you really like becomes a 45 FV on paper.

Andrew: Hunter Renfroe has had a massive year at AAA, how do you think his game plays out at the big league level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Love the power, think there’s more effort to the swing than I’m comfortable with and that he’s going to swing and miss a lot.

Big D: Pittsburgh really going to send Bell back down after his nice weekend showing? What do you think about that situation?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s going to hit enough to play every day. I also think the weird platoon splits he’s shown over the years have me way deeper into his callup piece than I anticipated being and I haven’t sent it to editing yet as a result. Seriously, go look at his year-to-year splits, it’s really odd.

Josh: Is the reason Josh Bell isn’t starting 1B for the Pirates because they don’t fully trust his glove there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know for sure, but it would give me pause. He was horrendous there initially. It’s gotten better but Pitt is fighting for a playoff spot and baseball decision makers are risk averse so I get why they’re apprehensive about sending him out there.

Jeff: Any thoughts on Anthony Banda? I know he got rocked by Moncada in the game itself, but he seems a little under the radar prospect-wise

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the velo and the breaking ball has been better, albeit inconsistently so, this year. But I’m skeptical. He’s a fastball/changeup reliever for me, though his success this year at least forced me to revisit that.

James: Austin Hedges hit two more home runs last night. What exactly is happening here? PCL + SSS mirage, legit improvement with the bat or something in between?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s definitely real improvement here. He’s gotten stronger and there’s been an uptick in power beyond just what the PCL is doing for him but last I checked he’s slugging over .800 and that ain’t happening in the big leagues.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’s suddenly become a middle-of-the-order hitter or anything like that.

Tim: Is Daniel Palka a legitimate prospect? What’s different between him and AB Walker?

Eric A Longenhagen: Palka: Pull power, swing path is such that he’ll need to time everything out in front of him to pull it and create lift. That’s hard to do in the big leagues but is easier for LHH like Palka to do because he’ll see more RH pitching. Think he’s more of a platoon type than a regular but that’s a solid prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: Walker: The power is crazy but I don’t see him making enough contact and it’s LF only, though some of the guys at the Futures Game yesterday told me the 20 arm we saw in Fall League has improved.

Philip: Fernando Tatis is doing well in AZL so far, hear anything?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him again last week. Made some acrobatic plays at SS but he won’t stay there long-term. 7 future arm, could be really good defensively at 3B and hit some. I like him, wrote a full report after the trade if you wanna dig that up on the site.

Ryan: Yadier Alvarez… How’s he looked so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was up to 100 on Friday night, I posted video on the FG Youtube page from that start. He struggled to throw strikes and I think he and the Dodgers are trying to figure out some stuff with the slider/cutter/curveball combo he’s got going on. Breaking stuff has been different every time I’ve seen him this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Chat software is being weird, give me a second to play with this.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry guys, I can’t dig up any new questions in my queue. We did 1:15 today, excellent questions two weeks in a row. Hit me up on Twitter if you guys want to and I’ll try to respond there. See you back here next week and every week until the end of time.