Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 7/4

Eric A Longenhagen: Happy Independence Day, everyone. Put down that M80 and come talk about baseball for an hour.

leprekhan: With the influx of position talent, in particular Kevin Maitan, how do you think the Braves’ farm system stacks up against the rest of the league?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought it was baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought it was baseball’s best entering the seasons and still think it’s the best.

Stenzy: Who would you say is the closest to being untouchable in a trade with the Giants? Arroyo ?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I’m calling the shots there, the last guy I’m parting with is Fox.

Steve: It feels better the draft and J2, the Phillies, while doing fine, haven’t truly maximized their pool advantages. Agree?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is an interesting question. Their draft was fine and a big part of the reason it wasn’t some slam dunk beauty of a draft class wasn’t their fault and was just dictated by difficult circumstances primarily created by where ATL, SD, WAS and CIN picked and the creative ways those offices operate.

Eric A Longenhagen: The J2 stuff is a little different. I know fans clamor for their teams to blow out their pools but when you have a nice big pool like Philly and Cincy do, I’d rather take that opp to spread things around and sign a lot of low end bonus guys. Philly has mostly had that philosophy internationally for a while and it’s worked pretty well.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d rather blow my bonus pool when it’s small and I wouldn’t be able to do much by following the rules. Philly can do a lot, stay under the bonus cap, and move in when they see fit in the future while still getting a good haul now. I thought they did fine this weekend.

Casey: Jaycob Brugman- Below average everyday CF/RF or solid 4th outfielder?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bench OF for me.

Hoff: Eric have you heard anything about Shohei Otani and his timetable for posting? When signed by an MLB club, does he immediately become the top prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hokaido has very little incentive to post him any time soon. The changes to Japan’s posting system, while better for the players (which I think is most important) makes early-career postings of studs like Otani very unlikely.

Eric A Longenhagen: As far as him being the top prospect once he signs, that depends on who else is in the system. The chances are pretty good, though.

Eric Shortenhagen: Exactly how legit is Miguel Andujar?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fun fact: My dad’s elementary school gym teacher called him “Shortenhagen” and he turned out to be about 5’7.

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw Andujar last week. Love the bat path, don’t believe in the bat speed. It’s interesting but flawed and potentially fatally so.

Tony: Is Maitan a top 100 prospect? Or just wait till he starts playing to be safe?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a 55 FV on him which you can see on the Sortable board and I think my full scouting report is still on FG’s front page so for those of you asking in the chat for a longform report (and there are a few) go check that out, it’s what you crave.

Eric A Longenhagen: 55 FV players are usually in the conversation for the 75-125 spots on a top 100 list, so yes, Maitan will at least be in the discussion for a top 100 slot.

Eric A Longenhagen: Those prospects in the 75-125 range are then separated in large part by the writer’s own biases and priorities when it comes to ranking prospects. And just because I know myself and what I prioritize, I’d bet on him making the list. I like upside.

AY: How has Clint Frazier’s stock changed this season? If it its gone up, what doubts has he eased / erased, and how fully has he erased them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hasn’t really changed. The bat speed is still incredible and scouts love how he plays but that little hitch in the swing that causes him to push everything the other way is still plaguing him a bit. I think he’s a big leaguer but that he might be frustrating at times.

John: Who has the better long-term outlook in the Reds’ rotation: Reed or Stephenson?

Eric A Longenhagen: Reed

The Dude of NY: What J2 player do disagree with the scouting consensus on? IE is there a player who you’re either more bullish or bearish on than most other scouts?

Eric A Longenhagen: A great question. Scouts loved Luis Garcia. I did video work on these guys (that’s really all I could do on such short notice because of when FG hired me) and didn’t love it but most sources I talked to really liked him. Had to defer to those guys, reports were too good to ignore.

LudeBurger: bless you for chatting on 4th of July. you rock!

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re welcome. Prospect writers don’t have holidays, just comes with the gig.

GoTribe: Who has the highest upside among Triston McKenzie, Yadier Alvarez, and Chris Paddack

Eric A Longenhagen: The dude who rolls out of bed and touches 100

The Dude of NY: Does the industry think the Cardinals should be punished for the hacking incident?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ohhhh yes

Luke: What are your thoughts on Ian Happs ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: All Star

Skore: Is there any arena left for a small market team to invest a lot of money to acquire young players? Previously, poorer teams could spend aggressively internationally and in the draft to try and compensate for a lack of ability to acquire veterans, but that seems to be being phased out

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the small market teams are definitely searching for other ways to score young talent because yes, the new draft bonus pool system has made it impossible for teams like Pittsburgh to spend $5 mil on a guy like Josh Bell just to add talent to the system.

Eric A Longenhagen: And to some degree, teams like LA and NYY have just figured out in recent years that they can take what were formally small-market principles and apply them to their own operation but at an order of magnitude larger than clubs like Tampa and Oakland because their wallets are bigger.

Eric A Longenhagen: The one thing I know small market teams are doing right now to out hustle the big boys? Scouting complex-level ball. Hard.

johnny: How much better is scouting now than what it was 10/20 years ago? I saw that people have said that the draft and International signing is more or less a crapshoot, but has advanced scouting and just the sheer number of scouts in a larger amount of places led to the word crapshoot being too strong?

Eric A Longenhagen: It bums me out when I see beat writers and such calling it a “crapshoot” because I think it’s insulting to the people who work on it for a living. It’s volatile and risky but isn’t a crapshoot.

Eric A Longenhagen: And yes, things are changing. I wish I could show you guys the software the Yankees pro scouts use at games. It is incredible.

Chris: Are you concerned about Carson Fulmer’s performance in AA?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I’d say I’m concerned, but understand that I was in the “I think this guy is probably a reliever” camp before Fulmer was drafted.

johnny: Thoughts on Derian Cruz?

Eric A Longenhagen: Twitchy, athletic, probably grows into enough arm for SS. I think he’ll have pretty significant platoon splits and wouldn’t be surprised if he scrapped switch-hitting eventually, though he’s too young for that kind of thing right now.

greg: Any thoughts on why the Reds are so high on Alfredo Rodriguez? Is it mostly the proximity to the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think his general readiness is part of it. I also think they’re heavily weighing positional value there. There are a lot of you asking about potential trade partners for CIN in the queue, I think teams that are being ignored are those who have exceeded their J2 pools. I think the Reds want to acquire enough money to stay under the J2 threshold, so WAS and HOU look like fits for a trade to me.

johnny: Any rotation likelihoods for Matt Povse or Chris Withrow of Carolina?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not in my opinion, no.

JV: What do you think of Brett Phillips?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m less optimistic about the hit tool than others seem to be.

Rick Hahn: What do you make of Tim Anderson so far? Ks need to come down, but the defense looks great and the pop is showing up.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s been about exactly what I expected. Has he walked yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ope, he has.

Donnell: Is Orlando Arcia a good enough prospect where I’d be a fool to deal him away? If not, what should I look for in return in a dynasty league?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably depends upon the scoring categories but don’t be discouraged by the year he’s having, I think he’s going to be very good.

Jeff: Are there orgs seemingly more forthright with opinions and/or willing to communicate to site writers like yourself? The Cubs seem to control their press extremely well, as do the Yankees, Red Sox, and Braves.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t kiss and tell.

Jeff: Any update on Eddy Martinez of South Bend? I’m optimistic about his performance over the past month and the drop in K rate since a slow April. I see a player trending up, even like the defense, but I get the impression we’re still at a point where the opinion will be low to compensate for Andruw Jones comps at the earliest stages.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know where the comps came from but the reports have been good, better than they were this spring.

callmemaybe: Why are teams ‘scouting’ Chapman? Do they need to see him in person to know that he throws really, really hard? Do they think they will see something they can’t see on tv? Or is their presence just for show?

Eric A Longenhagen: Baseball teams are run by curious, hyper-vigilant people and sending a scout in to see anyone just means gathering more info.

Eric A Longenhagen: Is going to see Chapman in person as valuable as getting in to see some Appy League dude who’s raking and you don’t know about? No, but it’s still more info.

Little Papi: Who was the best prospect “we are not talking about” that you saw while in your northeast trip?

Eric A Longenhagen: Greg Allen. I know he’s popped up in Cistulli’s Fringe Five, but that guy is a big leaguer.

Little Papi: I was listening to the your podcast with Cistulli. Very interesting exchanges between you two. You mentioned the idea of an international draft being something that will happen (not next cba but soon)… Looking at how PR has fared after they were included in the draft, it’s hard to envision DR and Venezuela going that route. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: The situation is pretty complex and I’m sure it will have many unintended consequences. The ripples of an international draft are really only something I’ll start thinking about once one is implemented and the industry starts to try to break it.

Ryan: As a Canadian desperately looking for baseball content at work – thanks for working on your day of independence!

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, guy.

Casey: Where would you rank Lazarito in the A’s system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just off the top of my head, probably somewhere towards the back of the top 10. Behind guys like Chalmers and the bat-first middle infielders for me. The risk with Armenteros is pretty extreme.

Eric A Longenhagen: And I can’t wait for him to hit the AZL, by the way.

sully: if the red sox fail to sign groome is that + the J2 penalties a big hit to their system

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t think so. I love Groome, but failing to sign him means a comp pick next year and teams who have gotten early picks because they didn’t sign players up top have done really well the next year.

John Adams: What ceiling do you put on Touki Toussaint’s curve? Can he be a compelling MLB starter with just his fastball/curve, a la Lance McCullers Jr?

Eric A Longenhagen: It has plus-plus potential. I think just a FB/CRV is probably too little to negotiate a big league lineup multiple times, but don’t necessarily think a change up needs to be part of the repertoire. As long as you find ways to get guys out with what you have. For Touki, that probably means developing better command than I’m comfortable projecting.

James: What is your next move if your Coppy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably to give Dave Stewart a call?

JD : What are your thoughts on Yu-Chen Chang?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been enamored with him since rookie ball. Don’t think he has the arm for SS, but believe enough in the bat not to care.

Black Cat: How do these fireworks grade out on the 20-80 scale: roman candles, bottle rockets, artillery shells, sparklers, and M80/little dynamite?

Eric A Longenhagen: 20- Sparklers
30
40- M80
50- Bottle Rockets, Roman Candles (on the ground)
60- Roman Candles (handheld)
70- Conestoga Big Bang Cannons
80- Whatever that shady dude in South Carolina is selling at that roadside stand

Mick D: Will it a take a year for Quantrill to build up arm strength and endurance in A ball? Then if another year in AA to work on his craft? Just trying to gauge a college pitcher with a TJ yey a top draft pick.

Eric A Longenhagen: I was in PA so I didn’t see it, but Quantrill was 92-96 in his AZL debut. Arm strength is already there.

Jeff: Thoughts on Indians RHP Triston McKenzie?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was everything I look for in a prep arm. Projection (so much it was actually hard to know if he’d ever fill out), athleticism, curveball feel. He’s been very good.

Dan: Bruh.. that JP Crawford play though.

Eric A Longenhagen: It was Lindorian. And they do it in totally different ways. Lindor is explosive and his lower half is built like Barry Sanders’. Crawford has freak anticipation and takes perfect routes to balls but is only like a 45/50 runner.

Phillip: Who would you take between Urias and Giolito?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gio (but don’t tell Urias I said that, please)

Jimmy: Two questions (sorry if they’ve been asked): Are team top prospect lists/write ups coming? And I know you’re mostly in AZ, but have you had a chance to scout Rome’s rotation? What say you if you have? (alright that’s three questions)

Eric A Longenhagen: Top prospect lists are an offseason activity and will start in September. I have not personally been in to see Rome’s rotation and yup, it’s because I live in AZ.

Kevin : How did you view Adam Duvall as a prospect ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Never saw him, unless I caught him in 2013 with Richmond but I can’t recall. He was drafted and had two years in pro ball before I left college.

xx: Which Reading Phils HR machine gets promoted to AAA first?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Cozens and likely whenever Williams gets a taste of Philly (though that will probably longer now than it otherwise would have been given the way Dave Brundage has handled things down there)

ryN: More likely to have on impact on their big league team this season: Bregman or Benintendi

Eric A Longenhagen: Man that’s hard…

Eric A Longenhagen: Bregman

Daniel: What’s the upside for Chris Paddack, the newest Padres prospect? I’ve heard he’s got a potentially plus-plus changeup, but does the rest of the arsenal stand up? Bullpen or starter long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Full report: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-chris-paddack-san-diegos-return-for-rodney/

Frank: Would you consider trading Albies along with pitching prospects this offseason to land a power bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope

Eric A Longenhagen: Alright everyone, we’re at an hour and one of my cats is making a weird noise so let’s wrap it up. This wee: Best of the rest of the J2 guys will all get s a writeup, I’ll be posting my in-person reports on the stuff I saw in the Northeast last week and will be hitting the AZL again before I head to SD for the Futures Game.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s my author page if anyone wants to catch up on the J2 stuff I’ve already written, including a brief look at the two Cuban National team prospects I think are among the best players left in Cuba: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/author/elongenhagen/