Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 8/14/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where the monsoon was in full effect this week. Happy to be home after a long, productive Area Codes. Thanks for stopping by, let’s hit your questions…

rux12321: Any thoughts/insights on recent draftees Cole Prosek and Connor Comeau?

Eric A Longenhagen: I was in Surprise yesterday. Prosek had a big day on the Royals’ side of the Complex. Homered and doubled, big move forward, nice to see him squaring pro pitching out the gate. I was on the Rangers side until they were done (only seven innings yesterday) and Comeau played well at shortstop, took good at-bats. Didn’t sizzle anything but looked good, much more projectable than Prosek. Seong-Jun Kim pitched, 93-94, four pitches, strikes.

Eric A Longenhagen: More through the portal: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

mistersparkle: Do you see Ethan Salas being promoted to the majors by the end of this season? If so, are the Padres rushing him or does he seem big-league-ready?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so long as Campy is hitting like this that Fermin/Campy is the duo they’ll go to the mattresses with.

nutter202: Wandy Asigen having a strong DSL at 16, 149 wRC+, showing power, kind of high K%. Is there anything to be gleaned from his start or too small sample and too much noise in DSL stats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Insofar as I’m willing to care about 25 DSL games, it’s the strikeouts that stick out to me.

Mon Dattingly: True or False: George Lombard Jr will have a longer big-league career than Anthony Volpe.

Eric A Longenhagen: Longer? IDK, we’re talking about predicting 10+ years from now and I’d be lying to you if I said, with any kind of certainty, that I knew.

war2d2: Eric!! I’ve thus far been unimpressed with Clay Holmes’ contributions to the cause (that is, one mediocre start), so already I’m panicking about the eventual fallout of the trade. I’m (mostly) joking, but if you’d been in Jed’s shoes and they requested one of Pedro or Rojas, who would you have held onto? I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen from Pedro so far, he looks like a ballplayer out there. But some of the Mets beats that I follow on Bluesky have been over the moon about the trade.

Eric A Longenhagen: With Pedro playing a seemingly integral role in the contending team right now, it’s fine to have moved Rojas instead. IDK if I’d have done it for a guy whose stuff was down on rehab, though.

MTfor42: It seems hitting prospects emphasize contact OR power (with the clearly talented players having some ability to do both), while pitchers might be on a spin/velocity OR control kick. Teams surely try to develop talent for improvements. Question: which traits seem more innate, and which are more develop-able? Is this just the nuts&bolts, sorcery&mysticism, of imagining best possible outcomes for wildly variant adolescents?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the defensive piece is often one you can’t control. Especially CF defense.

tdmoc: When do you have Kade Anderson coming up, and do you have him making an immediate fantasy impact?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe two Sundays from now? I’m just looking at their off days and looking at the first game one of their arms would be forced to go on four days rest rather than five. Yes, I think he’ll be good right away.

I Like Big Buxton: I attended a Bananaball game (performance?) recently and started wondering at one point about trying to scout a player in that kind of environment. Would it even be possible to get a meaningful report, or is it something where an organization might already know about a guy and have him do a private workout instead?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t watched a bananaball broadcast so I don’t *really* know, but based on the clips I’ve seen, unless you’re scouting these guys to see who thrusts the best and is a fit for your tiktok dance crew, I don’t think you’re getting anything out of it.

Phillip Denny: Hey Eric! The Rockies finally pulled the rip cord on the Julien experiment, and the Freeman injury is opening up some playing time for Veen. 1) do you like Veen’s apparent improvement this year, and 2) how long until they pull the rip cord on Tovar and just move Carrigg to SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Veen not missing as many fastballs this year is a good thing, his underlying chase data is terrifying (41% overall, nearly 33% higher than the big league average, 47% with two strikes). I think I want Carrigg to keep roaming rather than play one spot every day.

Jonathan Adelman: Do you think prospects like Blake Bowen (athletic, multi-sport, hit tool concerns) are less likely to iron out their issues in college than they would have been in the pros? Or is it not generalizable and depends on the prospect, the school, other context?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think them effectively repeating the same minor league level for three years can give the appearance that the issues are solved when it isn’t.

willt: Any Forst firing thoughts? Feels like it was weekend news dumped and never spoken about again

Eric A Longenhagen: Was bummed about it given his longevity, and I thought things had gotten sufficiently better there in the areas I focus on to say they had successfully pivoted. I picked them to win a bad division at the start of the year because I thought some combo of Jump, Morris, Lin, maybe Arnold, etc. would be up and productive this year. The Sean Murphy trade is the one thing where it felt like they really got taken in an obviously bad way. Esteury Ruiz? They seemed obsessed with him for like two years and idk why.

grandbranyan: For international teenagers that already stateside in the lower levels, but aren’t playing in any of the more veteran filled Winter Leagues, are they on their own for the offseason? Or do teams have offseason programs they can participate in either the AZ/FL or Dominican complexes?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are instructional leagues in FL/AZ that run through the first couple weeks of October, and instructs in the D.R. run a bit later (Team USA u18 is apparently going down there in mid-to-late October, after that stupid scouting moratorium date kicks in, idk how that’s gonna work but I know we’re all shocked it wasn’t planned well or really thought out, it was just a brute force way to save money on travel expenses) but kids have an offseason to themselves beyond that.

Justin: Do you think Jonah Tong should be converted to a reliever

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah

Steven S: Anything good, bad, or indifferent about Ethan Conrad so far? Obviously a slow start in Low A after the layoff, but heating up and the swing is a beauty.

Eric A Longenhagen: We did a bunch of work on him during the pre-deadline top 100 update. Since he had been hurt we wanted to see how things looked now that they had aired out a little bit. Meh. We decided “no change”, I wasn’t blown away.

matt: Do you know of any milb prospects fastball velo has taken a significant rise since beginning of the season similar to henry lalane?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not off the top. I could look at my data dump from May-ish and compare it to now to see whose fastball velo is up most, but it’d take more time than I have to spare at this moment to do that.

alec_eiffel: Anything new in Schubart’s profile makes you think he’ll be anything more than a 35+? He’s been really good at AA, but maybe its jsut a hot streak?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think something Cleveland fans should consider is, “How did Noel, J. Rodriguez, etc. do in A-ball? Did they turn out to be meaningfully good? How does Nolan’s performance compare to theirs at the same level? Is he striking out more than those guys did?”

jwise224: The D-backs recently DFA’d Paul Sewald and claimed Zack Littell to “shore up” their bullpen. I know these moves happen, but I can’t help but feel like they should be able to produce their own 6th inning arms. Why has this team been so poor at drafting and developing arms? Looking through the past five years of drafts or so, the bust rate is exceptionally high for them with pitchers.

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK, they are pretty awful at it, though. They tend to focus on drafting hitters, which I generally agree with. But if you can’t develop day two and three pitchers (either into big leaguers or into tradeable assets) then you need to use draft capital on guys who are already good enough not to need much development. I think they do a good job, on the pro side, staying on guys who throw hard and catching the late-bloomers when they’re ready to be productive. Juan Morillo is this kind of guy. I liked the Suarez/Naylor returns and thought those guys would help this year. Garcia has, Cranton has been hurt…

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s at the point where their inability to do it is impacting more than just the big league staff, it’s impacting their ability to execute trades. The Yankees have Grable and Cebert to trade less than twelve months after they picked them.

scottsjunk1981: I’ve seen some recent Samil Serrano hype. Is he still a 40+ for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: As we sit here right now he is, yes. That’s an aggro grade for a dsl hitter.

Jonathan Adelman: If FO decision-makers were given lifetime contracts, do you think some of them might draft differently than they do now (e.g. less risk-averse)?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’d be more Hedonistic drafts, but some folks are gonna stick to the model even if you give them the option not to.

Nils: Where would you slot in Harold Rivas in the list of prospects dealt at the deadline?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tucked into the 40+ tier somewhere, probably sandwiched between Aidan Amith and Joniel Hernandez.

crzy_guy: Another Giants question. Do you think Flora has any upside in physical development? He seems like a big dude, but since he went to a fairly well regarded college program for pitching, I wonder someone like him will experience less gains from a pro training regimen.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s tall, but not big. I just want him to be able to sustain velo across more innings, I don’t need him to throw harder. In this way I think he’s projectable, yes.

kphan34: Thanks Eric! Is Franklin Primera’s ground ball rate at Low A (61.7% in 122 PA) very worrisome, or something that can be improved over the next couple of seasons?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not dispositive. It’s a piece of his profile that could limit his offensive production if it doesn’t change, but we’re talking about a teenage catcher in full season ball and what he’s doing otherwise is pretty exciting. Yes, a ground ball rate that high is part of why I was not on Justin Crawford as much as my peers, but Crawford had other issues (not a great defender yet, chase-prone) that Primera (precocious defender, selective) doesn’t have.

rlothman: More Cardinals catcher questions! Leo Bernal has a 132 wRC+ since 5/1 — up to 160 since 7/1 — with great K/BB ratios. Where do you see him vis a vis Crooks in terms of overall potential and relative defensive value?

Eric A Longenhagen: Worse defender than Crooks by a lot, more balanced offensive profile with contact but probably still a shade below Crooks who I think will get to power. Sorting through St. Louis’ catchers is maybe the most important offseason project for the entire industry.

Western Metal Supply: Hey Eric! I remember a year or so ago you had mentioned Salas was scared of the ball and it was affecting his blocking. He has risen up the ranks, but has he fixed these blocking issues?

Eric A Longenhagen: His blocking still sucks, his framing and throwing are great.

lmb2020: Who will we see in the wave of “retains rookie eligibility for next year” callups coming soon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gage Wood, maybe Arias/Jenkins/Kade but only once the playoff picture crystalizes a bit more for their teams. Susana, too. If WSH is in it late, that guy’s coming up in the bullpen I think. There are versions of Mariners call ups where they fall out of it and Arroyo/Laz come up to get some run. Brayden Taylor, Khristian Curtis… there’ll be a bunch of dudes.

jeller78: Have you seen any defensive improvement from Josue De Paula on defense? Is he destined for first base/DH? Surely this is the reason the Dodgers still have him at double-a.

Eric A Longenhagen: We put on the tape when I update the system before the deadline and the first ball in play we watched was him dropping a routine pop up near the left field line. He’s a bad outfielder whose overall production will take a hit because of it. He’s still a great prospect.

Charles Bengal Tiger: Who is the prospect who has had the biggest stcck rise this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still have some reservations about Eric Hartman but his rise has been pretty sweet.

rosineater: Brody Hopkins…How do you see him tracking right now considering the continuing problems throwing strikes? How do the Rays handle his continued development and does he still end up as #3 or higher? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Looking more and more like a late-inning reliever. I still love him and I had to be consoled in the scout section at Codes when he was put on the Dev list.

GoatBenRice: Would love to hear your thoughts on Yostin pena and Wilson Rodriguez. I know both are hurt right now but they were having big years. Thank you.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yostin is a freak and I think he’s super exciting. Wilson has great command of the zone and good power for his size. More of a tweener look on defense. Could be 45 or 50 hit and power with plus plate discipline. Has more of a role player look on pure tools but that plate discipline piece might be good enough that it elevates the whole profile. Yostin is the more obvious potential impact guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok friends, that’s my time. Thank you all for coming, great questions again this week. I’ve gotta run, let’s tentatively plan on a longer chat next week!