Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 8/21/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello internet friends, it’s that time again.

rossredcay: Ethan Petry struggled pretty bad to start at AA after getting promoted, but seems to be picking it up lately (HR in 4 straight games, 5 in last 8).  Does he have a shot to hit enough to be an everyday guy?  Or have the cracks showing in the hit tool at AA made that less likely?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s the sort who could have window where he’s an everyday guy, think Luke Voit.

Eric A Longenhagen: Where he’s technically an everyday guy but he’s a 40

Turks Teeth: Jake Munroe looks awfully solid for an under the radar 4th rounder. Thoughts on his projection?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s above average contact but not the kind power you’d expect from a guy slugging .500

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s like 36% hard hit rate, that’s basically a 40 on the big league scale.

rossredcay: Max Anderson has been walking significantly more this year than in the past.  Do you have any data (or anecdotes) that would point to some kind of approach / skill change here?

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, PCA’s season? It’s typically a thing that happens (if at all) over a longer period of time in the big leagues. Guys get exposure to so much big league pitching that they can actually improve. In Anderson’s case he’s still expanding so much with two strikes (31% chase rate overall, 46% with two strikes) that I would guess he is purposefully being patient early in counts more than before, but that his ball/strike recog hasn’t actually improved to a significant degree.

Eshan Mehere: is yostin pena actually a t100 guy or is this just the yankee fan hype machine or a mix of both

Eric A Longenhagen: There definitely seems like more b.s. around Yankees prospects for a number of reasons (I think the baseball card industry is part of why, that’s a longer answer) but in Yostin’s case, he’s a freak and the ceiling is actually huge. Volatile? Yes. But man, I’d be excited if he were in my favorite team’s system.

oaktownblues: Breyson Guedez: A’s have to be happy with his progress this year, no? League adjusted stats have been middling but he’s so young

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d call it a neutral season. Didn’t blow the doors off but held his own in full season ball. The chase aspect of his profile is troubling for a corner OF prospect. We’ll likely leave the 40+ on him this offseason.

sportznut3: What are your thoughts on Angel De Los Santos?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tooled out, projectable, Ezequiel Duran type at maturity?  Again, lots of chase, makes the hit tool piece feel tenuous. We liked him a bunch coming into the season and he did well enough in Florida to keep liking him.

Honkus Wagner: have you seen any of Jarlin Susana since he’s been back? anything of note that’s caught your attention?

Eric A Longenhagen: 99-103, slider 86-89 with 3,000 rpm on average. Nutty, cartoonish stuff.

rossredcay: Sounds like the O’s are moving Luis De Leon to the pen for the stretch run.  I’m assuming this is a temporary thing?  Do you still think he has a decent shot to stick as an SP?

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree with you this is more a temporary thing related to his workload (he’s already exceeded 2025) and that he’s still a starter in the medium term. He really has 2027 and part of 2028 to get the strikes in order before you start to consider a permanent move.

Rhetoric Flair: Are you surprised by how well Murakami and Okamoto have performed this year? Do you think their team’s are surprised?

Eric A Longenhagen: My Murakami tool grades were bang on, but the grade has been light. He has the lowest contact rate in the league but is still getting to enough power to have been a 60 this year, rather than the 50 I put on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okamoto my tool grades were off but the overall grade has been a bullseye.

Eric A Longenhagen: I had more balanced hit/power there, he’s K’d more than I thought.

Chuck Berry: It looks like the rays are pulling the plug on Ty Johnson starting, im assuming its because of a lack of a third pitch, do you see him in more of a multi inning role or closer role?

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK, so many of their prospects only have two pitches that I don’t see it as dispositive in their eyes. I think it migh tbe to get him comfortable with this role now so he can play it in October.

casey j: Good day Eric Long and Hagen! Saturday is my birthday and I’m going to see the Mariners versus Chicago Cubs, I just found out that Kade Anderson Is going to make his Major League debut FUN!  I’ve only seen brief, dominating clips since college, but what do you think of a Barry Zito comp? I could be selling the dude short but the curveball, yes. Chance the Mariners ride him all the way to an incredible 82 and 80 division title?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can pick any short-armed, vert slot lefty with sneaky heater and plus breaking stuff as a comp. From Diet Kershaw to More Consistent Andrew Abbott. Happy bday, enjoy that one.

staatstician: Jacob Lombard has a 37.9% K rate at the moment but zone contact/contact rates of 86.1%/73.5%. Are his contact rates about what you expected or does it seem like he’s got less swing and miss than originally thought?

Eric A Longenhagen: That contact data is better than I expected.

Eric A Longenhagen: But let’s allow things to breathe for a bit, imo.

Lucas A: Hi Eric. Any thoughts on how Spencer Jones has looked with some steady playing time this year compared to your impressions of him before he was called up?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is about right: tons of K’s, power/speed. He’s going to have stretches where he makes a meaningful impact and others where he’s bad. His peak could include a 30/30 season, and the next he might hit .180 and be awful.

jimmers90: Talk to me about Luis Durango!

Eric A Longenhagen: Speedy little contact guy with 20 power. Cute bit player. More Terrance Gore than Jarrodd Dyson in terms of role I’d expect he could play.

oaktownblues: The other day in a media scrum Mark Kotsay seemed to sort of call out Jamie Arnold for not throwing his change up more – that’s kind of weird for a big league manager to say about a AA prospect, no? Do prospects bristle when their supposed flaws are aired out to the media?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s weird. Is it him “calling out” a prospect, or is it him trying to manage the expectations of fans/online/media who might be clamoring for a hyped guy who is pitching pretty well at Double-A?

WarrenJ: Is it too soon to read anything into the pro debuts of some of the top college players?  Roch Cholowsky and Vahn Lackey have been pretty underwhelming so far, while Justin Lebron has been very good.

Eric A Longenhagen: To go from a long college season, to not playing for two months, and then be sent straight to full-season ball, is a lot.

nebravesfan33: Braves RHP Daniel Brooks – undrafted out of College of Charleston – just got promoted to High-A Rome. Stats look pretty good – any scouting reports to pair with him?

Eric A Longenhagen: This guy is enormous. 6ft7, super high-waisted. 78 inch release height is kind of an outlier. Downhill 91-94 t96, generating plus-plus miss despite 40-grade velo. slider 82-86 is more obviously a good pitch. Looks more like a middle inning guy rather than a dominant high-leverage type as his numbers suggest. Nice get for an undrafted guy.

jimmers90: Not the best hitter.. But who’s swing do you love the most right now in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m becoming obsessed with Grindlinger.

ED44: At last check, you were pretty high on Serwinowski. Still there? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I am. Fastball missing bats at an elite clip even though he’s sitting 94. Even if he moves to the bullpen, what’s that pitch gonna be like if he’s throwing a couple ticks harder? Pretty dominant lefty reliever is the floor here. I’ll take him ahead of some of the system’s other volatile guys, like Harlan.

Barbaro Garbey: Bryce Rainer is currently on a real home run heater, with a 5 game homer streak ongoing…but overall, his K rate is still close to 35% on the year. Seems like the contact quality is impeccable, but do all the strikeouts put a cap on his ceiling? Like if he can’t get the strikeouts down a bit at the high A level, is he doomed?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s maybe the prospect in the minors with the most extreme variance.

Max Rieper: How will the threat of a work stoppage affect how teams handle prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Honestly I’m more concerned with the BBWAA having its ducks in a row so everyone can see those guys during the spring when they’re the only ones we can see.

Baby Yoda: Rainiel Rodriguez and Made are both having solid seasons in AA at 19. Made is a 65FV, RR is a 55. What drives the difference in their FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: One can play shortstop and the other might be a 1B. Made contact rate 81%, Rainiel 70%, Made 86% zone contact, Rainiel 76%, practically identical power metrics. One of them could feasibly get stronger (Made) while the other is already a husky guy. Pretty clearly there is

Eric A Longenhagen: daylight between these two prospects.

srg0203: How has Emil Morales looked at defense this year? Bat has been as advertised, big power and striketouts, but I wonder if he staying on the dirt is still possible

Eric A Longenhagen: Bigger, slower guy but enough skill and arm strength that he’s making it work. Would consider him a 3B risk but not a lock to move.

jimmers90: Did you think Lombards defense was THIS good? He is looking like Andrelton Simmons out there. Is it coaching and positioning that makes good defenders better in MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s plus, he isn’t Simba.

oysterburns: whats keeping Yohandy Morales from getting the callup? He look like a quad a guy or do you think this guy can hit major league pitching?

Eric A Longenhagen: I remain skeptical. Where is it you want him to play with Abi Ortiz getting his taste?

illardfillmore: AJ Ewing skipped a prospects update.  Where would you rank him today if he were still eligible?

Eric A Longenhagen: I would still have a 45+ on him. And Luis Lara is still a 45. Sticking to our guns on these guys is important to me.

drplantwrench: can you describe the obsession over Grindlinger in a bit more detail?  What do you see that you like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like I watched the 2027 high school class he was supposed to be a part of, and then the next day watched him face rehabbing big leaguers and thrive. I’m pretty sure Grindlinger would just be the favorite to go 1st among the HS guys right now had he not reclassified.

laramblers2012: I’m a Cubs fan who was floored when we traded Jefferson Rojas for a mid-rotation rental SP and a bench bat. The only explanation that made sense to me is that Rojas’ value is much lower in the eyes of basically every front office in MLB than the publicly available prospect rankings would suggest. Even though he’s blocked, I just can’t imagine Jed would trade him for a good-but-not-elite rental if he thought he could get a top-50-prospect-caliber return for him in the offseason.

After looking at Rojas’ numbers this year, and learning the Cubs moved him from SS to 3B, it made more sense. He’s putting up an .800 OPS in his second try at AA, which is good, but not top-100 caliber, especially for someone who’s not a plus defender at a premium position.

Yet all the post-deadline rankings I’ve seen have kept him in that top-50 range. 

What do you think’s going on here? Do you think there’s a big gap between how front offices view him and how prospect evaluators view him? And if so, why?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we might need to have a broad philosophical discussion about how it is you’re assessing prospects if the guy’s OPS is what you’re using to judge. Rojas is a college-aged player who is performing well in the upper levels of the minors. He can play shortstop okay and is a good 3B. He was blocked by 4 guys ahead of him, and the Cubs made a decision to make a move with that in mind rather than view his surplus value versus that of a rental in a vacuum. IDK if Holmes is who I’d have targeted for this kind of maneuver given his injury. It’s also possible teh Cubs don’t like Rojas. We in the public space are wrong about players pretty often because there are so many to eval. Teams are wrong about players often, too. I’m happy to have thoughts about players that don’t align with teams or my peers sometimes, it’s better for the ecosystem of ideas. Rojas we all seem to like. Now we wait and see how he does in the pressure cooker of NY.

Eric A Longenhagen: Most traded prospects, who the trading team knows more about than any of us, don’t pan out great.

Jeremy Fox: Should the Phillies call up Gage Wood and stick him in the bullpen when rosters expand?

Eric A Longenhagen: They should do it asap.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t want Orion Kerkering fielding dribblers in front of him in a close game.

Jimmy: I’m curious as to what motivates teams to talk to public scouts. Is it that it gives them a chance to solicit outside perspectives? It’s simply good to cultivate a large professional network? It’s just fun to talk shop with some good people?

Eric A Longenhagen: Individual scouts might be incentivized for our public facing reports to look like theirs. I’ve heard from scouts whose internal reports on a player were much different than mine, and their bosses have asked them why that is. The closer to your internal evals mine/ours are here, at BA, wherever, the easier it is to communicate with other teams about an ask on a trade. You can point to a public list that closely resembles your own and set expectations. Teams also have incentive to pump up their own guys. I’ve known enough people for long enough now to trust a certain number of them, some of them will feel free to say “hey, this guy is not working hard” or whatever, and then I’m more likely to believe them when they say “hey, this guy’s a badass”

sportznut3: Who is a guy drafted outside the top 3 rounds this year that you really liked?

Eric A Longenhagen: Will Adams

mfeinstein11: What’s driving the difference in your evaluation of Seaver King vs. consensus (T100 guy on other sites)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Complete inability to pull the ball and weird throwing accuracy issues on defense. love the athlete, love the motor, think the new regime is moving the needle on a lot of their guys but when I wrote up Washington he (especially on defense) looked bad.

scotth855: We’ve gotten the full Joshua Baez experience huh? 3 Homers in one game then has 1 hit (single) in his next 6 games with a k-rate above 30%.

Eric A Longenhagen: Righty Spencer Jones

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok yall, time to go. Enjoy the weekend of baseball!