Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 8/28/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, readers. Thanks for coming to another chat. Let’s get right to it.

veest: How is Dylan Jordan looking these days? I know there was some velo improvement, but is anything else moving forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Struggled with walks for the better part of the last two months. 93-96 t97 with extreme uphill angle because of his delivery, slider 80-84 generating elite miss. Still a good pitching prospect even though he’s struggled with strikes, could end up having multiple plus-plus pitches.

Anthony Hoehner: Okay, I can’t ignore it anymore. Is Ryan Cesarini an actual prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, platoon OF prospect. Great pull-side, high-ball hitter, especially against righties. 50 hit, 55 power against righties, more like 35 hit, 45 power against lefties. Swings over the top of lots of soft stuff down and away from him. How much that gets exposed by big leaguers will dictate whether or not he sticks. He should get an opportunity at some point in his mid-20s, doesn’t have to go on Cleveland’s 40-man until after 2027 season so look out for him in ’28

crazyhorse: Happy Walker Jenkins Day

Eric A Longenhagen: Heeeey, happy happy, just in time for a huge division series.

warpath: Hi Eric, thanks for the chat! With many recent draftees now fully entrenched in affiliated ball, I wanted to ask if any late-round, under-the-radar guys have popped in pro ball so far and caught your eye? I’ve heard a lot about the performance of higher pick guys, but wanted to know if anyone had positively surprised so far.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that I have personally run into in Arizona. Rockies OF Dimirti Williams has done some stuff for me but not in such a big way that I’d feel the need to tell you about him without you asking. The guys who’ve stood out for me are guys you know, like Conner Comeau and Jared Grindlinger.

rainingmozzarella: Since Mike Hazen took over as General Manager in late 2016, the most successful international signing the team has had is Justin Martinez at 1.3 WAR. The next best is Miguel Aguilar at 0.0 WAR. 
So the Dbacks can’t develop international players, and they can’t develop pitching. 
Do you have any thoughts on how and why they’ve been such a failure in those areas? And is there any hope for improvement?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve changed who has helmed both the Int’l scouting and dev group during his tenure. I think the int’l athletes who they’ve added look pretty good. They’ve taken more of a depth-driven, go-wide approach the last few years under the current group. Sure, none of those guys has raced to the big leagues, but they’re good-looking prospects in the middle of the system…

Eric A Longenhagen: But of course, when you take the go-wide approach, part of why you do that is because you’re subjecting a greater number of players to what is supposed to be good player development. When you don’t have that, the strategy isn’t as sharp as when the Brewers do it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Why are they bad at it? I don’t know. I think the D’Backs are a curious group, they’re not a bunch of luddites or anything. I think developing pitching is less scientific than analyzing it. I also think it takes a cohesive process where you’re drafting players the dev group knows beforehand they can improve.

rainingmozzarella: I know you’ve been a massive fan of Ketel Marte. Do you have thoughts on the drama?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, the first playoff series in 2017 when he hit an absurd home run and had an incredible series was when I first shot up and realized this guy was likely to hit a different gear, that he had just been either sick (mono) or injured before this and was kind of hidden in obscurity…

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not fair to psychoanalyze someone based on their mannerisms, but Ketel has always struck me as a guy who behaves as if he knows he’s always being watched, not a lot about how he moves through the world seems comfortable or authentic. It isn’t *that* big of a deal, in my opinion. I’m watching Hard Knocks and John Schneider and his “coke daddy” look wanna sign Terrion Arnold because Jalen Milroe said he’s a good guy. To me that’s insane. If Ketel had some kind of social anxiety I wouldn’t be surprised. My brother (who I love) no-shows family stuff and doesn’t return phone calls because he has profound social anxiety, and there are times when it irks me but mostly I know he’s doing what he needs to do to get by…

Eric A Longenhagen: Where I think this situation sucks is for Lovullo, who I imagine pounded the table for Ketel and now might be catching hell from Ken Kendrick because he can’t get Ketel to change. I think the way Lovullo’s handled himself in front of the media during this stretch is pretty amazing (Carroll, too) and I hope Kendrick views it that way when it comes time to discuss a ocntract extension.

ED44: Hi Eric. Thanks for all the great work. The Friday chats are always high on my list. How likely are we to see Cam Cannarella and/or Owen Ayers this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ayers might come up yet this season because there’s a chance he’s better than Amaya right now. Cannarella idk how they wanna play that. They’re clearly in “value uber alles” mode and that makes me think they’ll wait until his 40-man timeline arrives naturally, but the pace of his promotion doesn’t indicate that. He’s a better CF defender than Marsee. Had they stayed in it maybe he’d already be up.

sox94: How worried should we be about Kade Anderson‘s FB shape in his first MLB start?

Eric A Longenhagen: Give it some time to see how he adjusts to the different baseball.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s deceptive enough that I think it’ll be okay, but this is part of why he’s a 60 and not a 65 or 70: the velo is just alright.

Eric A Longenhagen: Remember MacKenzie Gore’s 2019 (I think) season? It was so, so dominant, he’s gotta be great right away, right? Right?

oaktownblues: A couple unheralded alliterative A’s catchers having good MiLB seasons this year in Cole Conn and Davis Diaz. Do you like either of them? Any insight on their receiving abilities?

Eric A Longenhagen: Should see at least one of them in Fall League, I think. Diaz I liked in HS as a contact-hitting shortstop, he’s small for a catcher and has little pop but it’s maybe plus-plus contact.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a well below avg framer

Eric A Longenhagen: Conn is more balanced, switch-hitter with above contact and more like 40/45 power. He’s at least good at framing the glove-side corner of the plate, but not really the other edges.

rossredcay: Since Slater de Brun came back from injury, he’s getting on base a ton and running a bunch, but the power is completely MIA.  I see he’s running ~70% GB rate at Low-A.  Is there something mechanical causing this (like with Justin Crawford)?  Is there an EV issue here as well or does he just need to get the ball in the air more?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has always been a downhill swing path guy, skills over tools type who I’ve compared to smushed Evan Carter. His career started on a full year delay, so I think it’s okay to give his profile time to breath. You can see where I’ve got him on the Rays list, and I imagine it’s lower than other outlets because I was a bit lower on deBrun pre draft iirc.

Syndergaardengnomes: You mentioned last week that the track record for trading prospects is not great…  In a season where the NL MVP, NL Cy Young winner, and AL Triple Crown winner all might be traded prospects, I was curious if anyone had done an actual study on this?

Eric A Longenhagen: How Often Do Prospects Traded At The Deadline Become Successful MLB Players?

Eric A Longenhagen: Should’ve specified at the deadline

Eric A Longenhagen: Taylor Trammel multiple times etc etc

BP: Scouting the stat line for Caden Bodine looks similar to Alejandro Kirk. Is that a good offensive comparison? Or not that similar?

Eric A Longenhagen: Catching John Olerud?

rossredcay: You mentioned in the Dodgers deadline writeup / list update that Cam Leiter could be a guy that gets into the T100 given the additional dev upside that could be lurking here due to injury.  Does he need to do anything other that stay healthy / get stretched out for that to happen?  Does the breaking ball dev piece also need to come along for him to make that jump?

Eric A Longenhagen: Better fastball locations are the biggest thing, not getting a lot of chase for a guy who touches 100 with 7ft of extension

willt: Does the consistent good performance from 20-grade contact guys like Murakami and Kurtz shock you at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, and it worries me that more and more of the game will end up being guys who whiff a ton but have great contact quality when they don’t. The number of sub-70% contact guys is growing and I probably need to re-assess my baselines.

viktor06: who do you think has a higher chance to win roty, Carson benge or porter martone (Calder)

Eric A Longenhagen: Has Martone gotten stronger?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think McLean is going to win it, personally. If his final month is as good as his non-May months, that should be enough to push him past the other guys. If you made me vote today I’d vote for Sally Baby.

pmaguran: what K% would you need to see from Andrew Fischer to believe he can be a mlb contributor?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is the one where the Murakami/Kurtz stuff makes you think about upgrading him to more than just a short-peak guy like I’ve tended to grade Fischer.

Tommyfastball: Kristian Campbell has huge BB rates at AAA.  Does that tell us anything?

Eric A Longenhagen: Red Sox are good at getting guys to be patient/passive when it turns out they can’t actually hit.

scottsjunk1981: How much game planning happens in the minors? I’ve been watching Yoyo Morales produce all year (.383 wOBA) despite being so terrible against velocity (.262 wOBA vs 93+) that he’s literally not a prospect. Why doesn’t he get 80% fastballs? Are AAA pitchers just sticking to their development plans and not trying to exploit weaknesses? Or can most of them not throw 93?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think part of why upper level pitchers have success is because they command their breaking stuff, and yeah I imagine many of them wanna pitch to their own strengths rather than the opponents’ weakness.

scottsjunk1981: Have you had a chance to see Seaver King since his promotion to Rochester? I’ve heard some reports that he’s cleaned up his defensive issues

Eric A Longenhagen: I put on the tape again last week and he makes an incredible diving play on one opportunity and then has weird, Gavin Lux-like throwing issues on the next. He’s going to be a fascinating litmus test.

ja1145: Does Andrew Painter look back to his top prospect level self?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not from a stylistic standpoint, he’s adjusted to his fastball being less explosive and is figuring it out.

ja1145: Is Bryan Rincon an everyday level player?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re okay with “everyday player” meaning SS #25-30? Maybe. I think he’ll be more like SS 30-45, he can pick it, he’s gonna K a lot I think.

lmb2020: What is more appealing right now: the Arizona Fall League or Arizona fall weather?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dude, this is the worst part. I can deal with 115 for a few days here and there, but at the end of the summer when it’s still like this and won’t quit, my stamina for it has waned and I’m watching Michael Groff videos every day waiting for him to say the weather pattern is changing.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hoping this weekend things taper off just for a couple days.

BaseballBeerBrats: Have you seen Samy Natera Jr. pitch since being called up? Has he made changes that have caused his results to skyrocket?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had a pretty big grade on him when I last helmed the Angels list, thought he could be a good bullpen’s third banana. Looks like it.

levityintx: Our league’s last week to add keepers for $5 or more.  Who is the best add in keeper leagues?  Lara, Carrigg, Perdo Ramirez, Rafeal Flores

Eric A Longenhagen: Pedro or Cole

szakyl: Thoughts on how Justin Campbell has looked this year after being off the field since 2022?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really encouraging. 90-96, strikes, slider 84-90, strikes, above avg curveball, changeup not missing bats but limiting contact quality. Glad he’s healthy, more than anything. Looks like there’s a cutter in there, too, that TruMedia isn’t classifying correctly.

mason morris: Avery Owusu-Asiedu has been unconscious since his promotion to AA.  Toolshed type and still likely 35+ but does this run do anything for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d slug .420 at Amarillo

SpiderTribe: @rainingmozzarella – Merrill Kelly 켈리 is an AZ international signing and has been worth over 10 WAR

Eric A Longenhagen: Cute, but that’s pro scouting all the way

Vee: Ben Brown was shut down right after you saw him throw. Is SIRP his future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, sucks. Think MIRP is the right fit there.

rossredcay: Not a prospect anymore, but do you think AJ Smith-Shawver has the goods to stick as a starter?  The splitter he’s developed has been quite good, but the fastball has been a bit hit or miss and the breakers have been disappointing.

Eric A Longenhagen: I love him, built and moves like a good starter, pitchers are constantly making adjustments and I see no reason why, after he was rushed and injured, he won’t successfully make some of his own.

Domingo Ayala: Early thoughts on Max Clark since his debut? Bat speed is not bad!

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks good to me.

The Juan and Only Soto: Any early feedback on how Susana has looked so far? Is it worth sending him (and Sykora, if ready) to fall league or better to just save the mileage on their arms given the injury histories?

Eric A Longenhagen: There is no way for me to answer that question in an unbiased way, but yeah I think AZ makes a ton of sense. From what I was told there were players in that clubhouse who were advocating for Susana to break camp with them *this year*, then he got hurt. However they think he can best be set up to debut next year they should do.

Charles Bengal Tiger: How high up should Jared Grindlinger be in a FYPD?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m loving it, I’d have him like 7th or 8th depending on how you value the NPB guys. I had him behind Lowrance and Lombard on the draft board but now I think i’d take him ahead of that group. Hacopian I haven’t seen or watched on film since he was assigned so he’s a variable too

Pinstripe Power: Lotta Yostin Pena helium recently with him skipping the FCL and performing well in low A. Is he a top 3 NYY prospect at this point, or a fringe T125 guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, he skipped FCL because he’s older. Wanna assess the chase piece against pitchers who can actually execute. DSL not great for that.

Eric A Longenhagen: Huge upside, really exciting, but definitely risky.

voltaverve: Are international signings still going to happen this offseason? I’ve heard conflicting reports.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s up in the air. The owners will of course want it to get pushed. They’ve already pushed it 6 months compared to where it used to be, they’ll at least do that again I imagine.

Eric A Longenhagen: Then they’ll have succesfully moved things back an entire year since covid, they fuggers find a way to get what they want and they’ll tell you it’s also what you want.

oaktownblues: Me confusedly typing “Martone” into the FG search bar and wondering who tf you guys are talking  about. To save anyone else a Google, he’s a hockey player

rdf8585: Is Brendan Gawlowski still with FanGraphs? Haven’t seen much from him the past few weeks or his usual chats.

Eric A Longenhagen: Beeg is on vacation with the family in Europe, a trip he rescheduled when we hired him because it conflicted with prospect week. He’s out of pocket for a couple weeks, something I should probably learn to be one of these years.

Anthony Hoehner: he isn’t a prospect but I’m completely fascinated by Steven Kwan’s 100% turnaround after looking like a shell of himself the first three months of the season. Any insight into what is behind that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just natural ebb and flow of baseball, I think. Sorry if that’s not satisfying, but it tends to be the case for so many players that they hit well for a while, and then don’t, and then hit well for a while again.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay friends, that’s my time. I expect we’ll fire off another chat same time next Friday. I’ll be at Basha/Chandler football tomorrow night, so look for me if you’re there (I’m the handsome one).